Transcript
A (0:03)
Kids, they grow up so fast. One day they're taking their first steps and the next they don't fit into the tiny sneakers they took them in. You blink your eyes and their princess dress is two sizes too small and their dinosaur backpack isn't cool anymore. But don't cry because they're growing up. Smile because you can profit off of it. For real. There are a bunch of parents on depop looking for the stuff your kid just grew out of. Download depop to start selling.
B (0:36)
Welcome to the Tech Brew Ride Home for Monday, December 8, 2025 I'm Brian McCullough. Today looks like that big Netflix bid for Warner Brothers isn't gonna go smoothly as Paramount has launched a hostile counter bid. We've got a full on executive suite Crisis at Apple, SpaceX could IPO next year and more data on how AI usage is evolving. Here's what you missed today in the world of tech.
B (1:06)
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B (2:02)
Wake up Babe. A new soap opera has dropped this morning, Paramount launched a hostile bid to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, offering WBD shareholders $30 per share in an all cash deal. Quoting CNBC. That's the same bid WBD rejected last week, which Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison said Monday never got a response from Warner Brothers Discovery. The offer is backstopped with equity financing from the Ellison family and the private equity firm Redbird capital as as $54 billion in debt commitments from bank of America, Citi and Apollo Global Management. We're really here to finish what we started, Ellison told CNBC's Squawk on the Street Monday we put the company in play. Paramount has repeatedly argued to the WBD board of directors that keeping Warner Brothers Discovery whole was in the best interest of its shareholders. Paramount executives also plan to argue their deal will have a much shorter regulatory approval process given the company's smaller size and friendly relationship with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with. We've had great conversations with the president about this, but I don't want to speak for him, ellison said Monday. Netflix's proposed acquisition has already raised antitrust questions, in particular for combining two of the most dominant streaming platforms. CNBC reported Friday that the Trump administration was viewing the deal with, quote, heavy skepticism, and President Donald Trump said Sunday the market share considerations could pose a, quote, problem, end quote. Yes on that Trump bit, quoting Bloomberg. Trump's comments made as he arrived at the Kennedy center for an event on Sunday may spur concerns regulators will oppose the coupling of the world's dominant streaming service with a Hollywood icon. The company faces a lengthy Justice Department review of a deal that would reshape the entertainment industry. Bets on prediction marketplace Polymarket showed a 23% chance of Netflix closing the acquisition by the end of 2026, down from around 60%. Just before Trump's comments, Netflix co CEO Ted Sarando said on a call with investors on Friday that he's, quote, highly confident in the regulatory process, contending the deal favors consumers, workers and Innov. That confidence is more than just talk, as Netflix also agreed to pay $5.8 billion to Warner Brothers if the deal falls apart or fails to win regulatory approval, one of the biggest breakup fees of all time. Netflix has, quote, a very big market share and when they have Warner Brothers, you know that share goes up a lot, the president said, adding that he will be personally involved in the decision making process. Netflix is expected to argue that other services such as YouTube and TikTok should be included in any analysis of the market, which would dramatically shrink the platform's perceived market Dominan. Even if antitrust reviews just focus on streaming, Netflix believes it will ultimately prevail, pointing to Amazon's prime and Disney as other major competitors, according to people familiar with the company's thinking. Sarandos met with Trump at the White House recently to lobby for the acquisition, Bloomberg reported earlier. Netflix wasn't any kind of all powerful monopoly, the executive argued at the time, and had suffered its own subscriber losses a couple of years earlier, according to people familiar with the matter. Kevin Hassett, who is seen as the leading contender to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, said it's not, quote, rare for presidents to have opinions about big society changing mergers, but in the end, the Justice Department will look at the concentration in the streaming business and the amount of competition that is reduced as a result of the merger. I think the president is just very interested in making sure that there's a lot of analysis to make sure that we make the right choice, haasett said, speaking on cnbc. By choosing Netflix, Warner Brothers jilted Paramount Skydance, a move that risks touching off a political battle in Washington. Paramount is backed by the world's second richest man, Larry Ellison, and has touted long standing ties to Trump. The acquisition of Paramount, which closed in August, has won public praise from the president. Paramount, too would face a host of regulatory concerns despite the Ellison's friendly relations with the Trump administration. Combining Paramount with Warner Brothers would consolidate two major Hollywood studios, two streaming networks and the influential news outlets of CBS News and cnn. Netflix doesn't have a broadcast network or cable channels. Netflix is expected to argue that more than 75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, making them complimentary offerings rather than competitors, said people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. The company is expected to make the case that reducing its content costs through owning Warner Brothers, eliminating redundant backend technology and bundling Netflix with Macs will yield lower prices. Some analysts think Netflix can prevail. I don't think it really creates a monopolistic situation, wall street veter Ed Yardeni of Yardini Research told Bloomberg Television. Technology monopolies don't last very long because somebody figures out how to compete against them. And there are certainly plenty of other streaming services, end quote. And then real quick, this is Ben Thompson's take on all of this from this morning. Ben points out that Warner Brothers began as theater owners and film distributors, but quickly learned the real money was in creating films that could be resold endlessly, not in filling a limited number of seats. Over time, new Windows television, home video, and especially the cable bundle turn studio libraries into semi annuity machines as households paid monthly for access to far more content than they actually watched. Netflix, born as a DVD by mail service, as you'll remember, replayed this story on the Internet with a crucial twist. Online distribution scales even better than content. With global reach and near zero marginal cost, Netflix became an aggregator, organizing an overwhelming surplus of shows and movies, drawing in viewers and lowering customers customer acquisition costs as it grew. That's the context for Netflix's argument now, according to Ben. Netflix has seen that when its algorithms touch someone else's IP like Drive to survive suits K pop demon hunters. The upside mostly accrues to the rights holder, not to Netflix. Owning the IP would fix that. Regulators will fret about vertical integration and reduce streaming competition. But Ben buys The argument that Netflix's real rival isn't HBO Max, it's YouTube and the broader flood of free user generated video competing for finite human attention.
