The AI Trade

Summary

Tech Brew Ride Home – "The AI Trade" (July 30, 2026)

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Main Theme

This episode dissects the latest explosive developments in the AI-powered tech markets, with a focus on Microsoft’s strong cloud gains, Meta’s investor skepticism over huge AI bets, turbulence for a high-profile AI hedge fund, the EU’s new regulatory moves on ChatGPT, and the rise of AI-driven airline pricing—all within the lens of how artificial intelligence is both fueling and upending the industry.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Microsoft's Cloud & AI Triumph (00:33–03:13)

• Biggest Stock Surge in 6 Years: Microsoft shares jumped 15% on reporting their fastest cloud growth since early 2022. Azure Cloud revenue soared 43% in Q4, eclipsing $100B annual revenue for the first time.
• AI Is the Growth Engine: Demand for AI and computing services is driving Azure’s growth beyond capacity.
• Financial Strategy: CFO Amy Hood forecast further acceleration (aiming for 45% growth) while adjusting capital spend:
  • Capex now forecast at ~$175B (down from $190B) in 2026, some shifted to operating costs by extending data centers’ useful life.
  • [01:12] Quote – Amy Hood: “Demand continues to exceed available supply… growth in the cloud unit to accelerate further… ease investor concerns about the company’s massive outlays.”
• Copilot Uptake: Over 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot users—up from 20 million just three months ago (though this is still only 7% of Microsoft 365’s 450M paid seats).
  • [02:39] Host (A): “Only 7% of users also pay for Copilot as of right now. But hey, that figure has 2x'd in the past six months."
• Earnings Details:
  • $3.2B gain on Anthropic investment
  • $600M Q4 loss, but $5B annual gain on OpenAI stake
  • [03:10] Host (A): “They overshot their valuation of OpenAI just a little bit, but they're still way up.”

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2. Meta’s AI Investment Strain & Investor Doubt (03:22–06:17)

• Shares Drop 10%: Weak revenue forecasts and ballooning AI expenses worry investors.
• Huge AI Spend: Meta expects up to $145B in 2026 capex (datacenters, smart glasses, AI models), resulting in lowest free cash flow since 2022.
• Zuckerberg’s Defense:
  • “We see the technology working, we’re happy with the trajectory... I’m excited about the products that are coming.” (04:03)
• No Cloud, No Fast Payback: Unlike Microsoft, Meta lacks a core cloud service to quickly monetize AI investments; its AI is seen as lagging competitors.
• Exploring New Models:
  • Testing chatbot subscriptions, developer APIs; early-stage moves.
  • Considering launching a cloud business to lease out excess compute capacity.
  • [04:54] Zuckerberg: “Meta has a large number of offers from companies interested in buying its computing power at a meaningful premium… must now think through the trade off of selling... for a profit versus continuing to use it for its own products.”
• Ongoing Skepticism:
  • Still, no clear AI monetization path worries investors.
  • [05:55] Minda Smiley (emarketer analyst): “Meta's strong revenue growth will once again be overshadowed by its capital expenditure projections.”
  • [06:09] Zuckerberg: “My personal bet is that the people who invest in this are going to be rewarded and feel very good over time.”

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3. Samsung’s AI-Related Boom (06:25–06:47)

• Earnings Pop: Q2 revenue up 130% YoY, operating profit up 1814%—led by global AI demand for memory chips.

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4. AI Hedge Fund Rout: Situational Awareness (06:47–09:46)

• High-Profile Meltdown:
  • Hedge fund "Situational Awareness", run by ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, faces major losses and asset sales after misjudged AI and software stock bets.
• Investment Thesis Challenged:
  • Fund bet big on “AI infrastructure” boom (chips, memory, data centers, electricity)—holdings like SK hynix, Sandisk, Micron, CoreWeave all plunged >35% in a month.
  • [08:17] Host (A): “This is an early and potentially significant test of the investment thesis that made Aschenbrenner one of the most closely watched figures in the AI trade.”
• Background Drama:
  • Aschenbrenner once a prodigy and OpenAI super alignment researcher, ousted in 2024 over disputed data disclosure (09:05–09:21).
  • [09:13] Host (A): “He shared a largely non confidential planning document with outside researchers for feedback, and has said his dismissal followed tensions over warnings he raised about OpenAI's security practices.”

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5. EU Targets ChatGPT & Roblox Under the DSA (11:57–13:23)

• New Regulatory Heat:
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI) and Roblox classified as “Very Large Online Platforms/Search Engines” under the EU’s Digital Services Act due to >45M monthly users.
  • Subject to stricter moderation, transparency, and risk-mitigation mandates.
  • [12:34] Host (A): “The DSA requires all social networks and search engines to clamp down on illegal and harmful content on their platforms.”
  • Fines for breaches can reach 6% of global annual sales.
• Child Safety Emphasis:
  • Roblox recently boosted protections and transparency for kids, a key EU concern.
  • Ongoing investigations into other large platforms.

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6. AI Changes the Game for Airline Ticket Pricing (13:33–17:47)

• Air Travel Gets Algorithmic:
  • Airlines are now using advanced AI models to dynamically adjust fares in real time, replacing set rules and spreadsheets.
  • [13:53] Host (A): “Now, artificial intelligence is enabling carriers to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time…”
• For Travelers:
  • More expensive fares likely on busy routes as fewer seats remain underpriced.
  • On the flip side, AI could drop prices to stimulate demand on less crowded flights.
  • [14:34] Brian Terry, Alton Aviation: “Consumers should expect that airlines will be smarter about their pricing and will exploit that capability to raise fares where possible and cut prices where they have room to stimulate demand.” (14:34)
• How It Works:
  • Israeli startup Fetcher enables global airlines to dynamically reprice based on hundreds of variables (oil prices, disruptions, competition, etc.).
  • [16:16] Yuri Yermushali, Fetcher: “Our models analyze dozens, if not hundreds, of classes of variables to come up with fares. You can only do that now because of AI.” (16:16)
  • Volantio’s AI platform helps airlines bump flexible travelers and resell seats to higher-paying last-minute buyers.
• Rising Concerns:
  • Consumer advocates and lawmakers worry about potential for “surveillance pricing”—charging different fares to different people for the same seat, based on personal data.
  • [17:24] Host (A): “For carriers, though, the appeal of all this is straightforward. It's the ultimate secret sauce from an airline perspective…”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [02:39] Host (A) (on Copilot): “Only 7% of users also pay for Copilot as of right now. But hey, that figure has 2x'd in the past six months."
• [03:54] Mark Zuckerberg: “We see the technology working, we're happy with the trajectory of the lab. I'm excited about the products that are coming, and we believe that this is going to be a big thing.”
• [04:54] Mark Zuckerberg: “Meta has a large number of offers from companies interested in buying its computing power at a meaningful premium… must now think through the trade off of selling... for a profit versus continuing to use it for its own products.”
• [06:09] Mark Zuckerberg: “My personal bet is that the people who invest in this are going to be rewarded and feel very good over time.”
• [08:17] Host (A): “This is an early and potentially significant test of the investment thesis that made Aschenbrenner one of the most closely watched figures in the AI trade.”
• [12:34] Host (A): “The DSA requires all social networks and search engines to clamp down on illegal and harmful content on their platforms.”
• [14:34] Brian Terry, Alton Aviation: “Consumers should expect that airlines will be smarter about their pricing and will exploit that capability to raise fares where possible and cut prices where they have room to stimulate demand.”
• [16:16] Yuri Yermushali, Fetcher: “Our models analyze dozens, if not hundreds, of classes of variables to come up with fares. You can only do that now because of AI.”
• [17:24] Host (A): "For carriers, though, the appeal of all this is straightforward. It's the ultimate secret sauce from an airline perspective..."

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Microsoft Cloud & AI Success: 00:33–03:13
• Meta's AI Spending, Monetization Tensions: 03:22–06:17
• Samsung AI-Driven Chip Sales: 06:25–06:47
• AI Hedge Fund Rout (Situational Awareness): 06:47–09:46
• EU Digital Services Act Targets ChatGPT/Roblox: 11:57–13:23
• AI in Airline Ticket Pricing: 13:33–17:47

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Final Takeaway

The tech market is in flux as AI-driven strategies drive both astronomical profits and equally dramatic risks. Cloud platforms and chipmakers are flush with growth, social networks are betting their future (and investor patience) on AI, regulatory scrutiny is tightening, and even your next airline ticket is being priced by an algorithm. The AI trade is high-stakes—and as this episode shows, its winners and losers are being decided faster than ever.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome to the Tech we write home for Thursday, July 30, 2026. I'm Brian McCullough. Today, Microsoft surged 15% on its fastest cloud growth since 2022, while Meta slid 10% defending its AI spending. A star AI hedge fund is forced

[B]

to unwind positions after an AI rout.

[A]

The EU targeted ChatGPT under the DSA. And if you're flying this summer, it's increasingly you against the AI.

[B]

Here's what you missed today in the world of tech.

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Well, we've got A tale of two earnings reports today. First up, Microsoft is up nearly 15%

[B]

in stock market trading this morning. Quoting Bloomberg.

[A]

Microsoft shares soared after the company reported the fastest cloud growth in four years,

[B]

suggesting its AI and computing services are

[A]

making inroads with customers. Azure Cloud revenue rose 43% during the

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fiscal fourth quarter, the company said Wednesday in a statement. That was the fastest quarterly growth since early 2022 and topped analysts average estimate

[A]

for a 40% increase. Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time ever during the fiscal year ended in June.

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Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said she

[A]

expected growth in the cloud unit to accelerate further in the current quarter to about 45%. Demand continues to exceed available supply, she

[B]

said during a conference call with analysts. She also indicated that Microsoft would hold

[A]

the line on new capital spending this

[B]

year, which helped send the shares up about 15% to $449.83.

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Opened in New York for the biggest

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intraday gain in more than six years,

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Hood said the company had determined that its data centers and office buildings would likely prove useful for an additional 10 years, a change that will shift some of the company's capital expenditures to operating costs.

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The net effect is Microsoft's capital spending

[A]

will likely land at roughly $175 billion

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this year, versus a prior forecast of $190 billion.

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But outside of that accounting tweak, the

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company's 2026 investment expectations remain unchanged.

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Hood said that could ease investor concerns about the company' massive outlays on data centers and chips, even as investors continue

[B]

to question the spending by some of Microsoft's peers.

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Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said the company now counted more than 30 million paid users of Microsoft 365 Copilot,

[B]

the AI assistant sold as an add on to the ubiquitous office software.

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That's up from roughly 20 million three months earlier. The step up in paid Copilot users is a good result, bloomberg intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh said in an interview on Bloomberg tv.

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The bundling strategy that Microsoft has continues to, he said.

[A]

Yeah, I will point out that Microsoft

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365, which is Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, all that stuff, has over 450 million

[A]

paid seats, so only 7% of users

[B]

also pay for Copilot as of right now. But hey, that figure has 2x'd in the past six months.

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More details from Microsoft earnings In Q4, Microsoft marked a $3.2 billion gain for its anthropic investment and booked around a

[B]

$600 million loss for its OpenAI investments, but noted a $5 billion gain on its OpenAI investment on a full year basis.

[A]

So they overshot their valuation of OpenAI

[B]

just a little bit, but they're still way up.

[A]

Meanwhile, shares of Meta are down nearly 10% right now.

[B]

Quoting Bloomberg again, Meta platforms gave a

[A]

disappointing quarterly revenue forecast, stepping up pressure

[B]

on officer Mark Zuckerberg to allay investor

[A]

concerns that the company isn't swiftly benefiting

[B]

from its massive outlay on artificial intelligence. The social media giant reported the lowest

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free cash flow in years, a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets, including data centers and smart glasses, which could

[B]

amount to $145 billion this year.

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I get that this is a big investment and it's a big bet, zuckerberg said. We see the technology working, we're happy with the trajectory of the lab. I'm excited about the products that are

[B]

coming, and we believe that this is going to be a big thing.

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In part because it doesn't yet have a cloud computing business and its AI

[B]

products have at times been considered less

[A]

competitive than some other AI labs work. Meta has faced recurring investor skepticism that it will recoup this spending.

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Meta announced several new AI related business lines in recent months, including a consumer

[A]

chatbot subscription and a pay to use

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AI model for developers, though those are in early stages.

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On the call Wednesday, Zuckerberg teased another potential business line, a cloud computing business

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where Meta would sell computing power to other companies. The CEO said that a substantial amount

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of Meta's computing power currently goes toward

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training its own AI models, a necessity for being a leading AI lab.

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But he also said that Meta has a large number of offers from companies interested in buying its computing power at a meaningful premium over what Meta spent to acquire it.

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That has created an opportunity, he added, saying that Meta must now think through

[A]

the trade off of selling the computing power it has for a profit versus

[B]

continuing to use it for its own products and services. These calculations are happening at the same time that Meta is also buying computing

[A]

power from independent data center operators, so called Neo clouds as well. There is just nowhere near enough compute for all the demand, he added when asked about the idea of Meta being both a buyer and a seller. Bloomberg earlier reported on Meta's plans to

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develop a cloud computing business.

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Meta adjusted its full year capital expenditure forecast to 130 to $145 billion, slightly lifting the bottom end from a previous projection of 125 to 145 billion.

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In one sign of the enormity of

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Meta's AI investments, the company's free cash flow in the second quarter fell to $784 million, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meta's strong revenue growth will once again be overshadowed by its capital expenditure projections,

[B]

wrote Minda Smiley, senior analyst at Emarketer.

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Even though Meta didn't raise projections, that won't stop investors from pressing for more information regarding plans for a potential computing business and any other details on how Meta is thinking about monetizing AI. Still, Zuckerberg projected confidence to end the company' predicting investors will ultimately benefit from Meta's AI gamble. My personal bet is that the people who invest in this are going to be rewarded and feel very good over time, he said.

[B]

End quote.

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Also, this is not Meta related, but

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I didn't want to do a full segment on it, so I'm going to just squeeze this in here.

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Samsung also reported earnings yesterday. Their Q2 revenue was up 130% year on year. Their operating profit was up 1,814% on

[B]

robust AI demand, by which I mean of course memory chip demand.

[A]

And this is a bit of Wall street inside baseball, but it is very much AI related. Ex OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner's situational awareness hedge fund is this morning facing margin calls after heavy losses during the recent AI stock rout.

[B]

Quoting CNBC the battered $24 billion hedge

[A]

fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, is unwinding many of its trades after big losses on artificial intelligence stocks and a bad bet against software stocks

[B]

left it scrambling to raise cash, according to people familiar with the matter.

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The prime brokers for the fund, Situational Awareness, have begun rushing to raise cash to meet margin requirements, the people said.

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A large investment firm has apparently reached

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a deal to buy the fund's publicly traded assets, people familiar with the deal

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said the buyer of the assets couldn't be determined.

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Situational Awareness has sustained significant losses in recent weeks as its portfolio of AI infrastructure investments such as Skhenix declined while short positions in software companies such as

[B]

Adobe moved sharply against it, the people said.

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Several of the firm's prime brokers, including bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion, according to people familiar with the discussions. The brokers have been marketing a group of the firm's holdings on both the long and short side for sale prior to Thursday's start of trading, according to

[B]

to people familiar with the situation.

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The turmoil is an early and potentially significant test of the investment thesis that made Aschen Brenner one of the most

[B]

closely watched figures in the AI trade. The 25 year old built the firm

[A]

around the idea that increasingly powerful AI systems would require a vast expansion of

[B]

chips, memory data centers and electricity generation.

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The fund's largest holdings at the end of the first quarter included Nebias Group, Sandisk, Micron and Corweave, according to filings.

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All four of these stocks are down more than 35% this month alone.

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Ashton Brenner became prominent in technology and investing circles after publishing a series of essays in 2024 arguing that rapid advances in artificial intelligence would require an enormous expansion of computing power, advanced semiconductors, memory and energy infrastructure.

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Those ideas became the intellectual foundation for situational awareness after he left OpenAI.

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Aschen Brenner graduated from Columbia University as

[B]

valedictorian at the age of 19 before joining OpenAI's super alignment team.

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He was fired in 2024 over what the company described as an improper disclosure of internal information.

[B]

Aschenbrenner has disputed that characterization, saying he shared a largely non confidential planning document

[A]

with outside researchers for feedback, and has said his dismissal followed tensions over warnings

[B]

he raised about OpenAI's security practices. OpenAI has said those concerns were unrelated to his departure. Aschenbrenner is engaged to Avital Balwit, the chief of staff for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodai, according to an October profile in Fortune, which cited situational awareness. LP spokesperson End quote.

[C]

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[B]

probably not the regulation they were looking for. Quoting Bloomberg OpenAI's ChatGPT and video game

[A]

company Roblox will be subject to stricter scrutiny and monitoring requirements under the European Union's content moderation rules.

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After surpassing a threshold of 45 million monthly users in the block, the EU's executive arm will designate ChatGPT's search function as a very large search engine and Roblox as a very large online platform,

[A]

in line with the Digital Services Act,

[B]

a person familiar what the matter said. The designations will come as soon as

[A]

August, the person said, asking not to be identified because the decision was confidential.

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The DSA requires all social networks and

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search engines to clamp down on illegal and harmful content on their platforms.

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The vlops, which also include Meta and Elon. Musk's X, must also file transparency reports, detail risk mitigation plans, and pay an annual fee to the European Commission.

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Companies that breach the DSA risk fines

[B]

of as much as 6% of their annual global sales.

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A Commission spokesperson declined to comment.

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OpenAI and Roblox didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

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The DSA aims to protect children online by compelling tech companies to safeguard their experiences.

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Roblox, which has faced criticism over its child safety protections, recently implemented stronger controls over who kids talk to and what games they play. The company is also moving more into advertising, which the DSA aims to make more transparent when it comes to marketing to kids. The commission has opened more than a

[A]

dozen probes into online platforms since the

[B]

DSA came into force in 2022.

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Finally, today if you're searching for bargain airline tickets, increasingly it's you against the AI.

[B]

Apparently quoting Bloomberg, airlines have long relied

[A]

on analytics to devise pricing rules, such

[B]

as increasing fares by 20% once a flight is a quarter full.

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Now, artificial intelligence is enabling carriers to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time, helping capture more revenue while shrinking the pricing

[B]

gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares. Driven by soaring costs, carriers from Delta

[A]

Airlines to Virgin Atlantic are increasingly adopting the technology to squeeze more revenue from every flight.

[B]

For travelers, that will likely mean higher fares on busy routes as fewer seats are sold below what airlines believe customers are willing to pay and flights are packed closer to capacity.

[A]

The shift marks a new era in airline pricing, replacing rules and spreadsheets with

[B]

predictive models that continuously adjust fares to demand.

[A]

Consumers should expect that airlines will be smarter about their pricing and will exploit that capability to raise fares where possible and cut prices where they have room

[B]

to stimulate demand, said Brian Terry, an analyst at New York based Alton Aviation consultancy.

[A]

Airlines will see these conditions clearer more in advance and with more certitude, allowing

[B]

them to adjust pricing both upwards and downwards more dynamically, he said.

[A]

The technology could also work in travelers favor on quieter flights.

[B]

Passengers should expect to pay less on

[A]

off peak and lower demand routes as

[B]

airlines use AI to stimulate bookings and fill empty seats, Terry said.

[A]

The push comes as airlines grapple with rising labor, maintenance and fuel costs, increasing

[B]

pressure to extract more revenue from every flight. Established airline software providers, including Amadeus and Pros, now offer AI powered pricing tools as airlines modernize their revenue management systems.

[A]

While airlines have typically turned to dynamic pricing to adjust fares based on demand, advances in AI are making those systems faster and more sophisticated.

[B]

According to aviation analyst Guy Leach, machine

[A]

learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seat inventory and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking tracking competitors fares and capacity changes to

[B]

update prices in near real time.

[A]

Israeli startup Fetcher is among the companies

[B]

helping drive the shift, used by nearly a dozen global carriers, including Canada's WestJet and Brazil's Azul Airlines. Its AI platform enables continuously updated fares

[A]

as market conditions change during disruptions triggered by the Middle east conflict. Fetcher's software immediately incorporated factors including oil price swings, competitors, existing markets, flight cancellations

[B]

and changing route demand to reprice flights around the world. On average, its AI driven technology raises revenue by filling more seats on a particular flight rather than by raising ticket

[A]

prices, the firm said. Our models analyze dozens, if not hundreds, of classes of variables to come up with fares.

[B]

You can only do that now because of AI, said Yuri Yermushali, the company's co founder and chief AI officer. The platform knows to address offerings immediately every time something changes in the market. AI is also helping airlines generate more revenue.

[A]

Even after tickets are sold, say a passenger books a popular flight months in

[B]

advance at a lower fare than a week before departure. Demand surges. Atlanta based operational intelligence company Volantio's AI platform, which has access to an airline's

[A]

bookings, identifies people who may be willing to switch to a less crowded flight in exchange for a voucher.

[B]

The vacated seat can then be resold

[A]

to a last minute business traveler for $1,000, extracting more revenue.

[B]

The airline gets more money for the

[A]

seat and the passenger is rewarded for

[B]

their flexibility, said Azim Parodewala, co founder and chief executive officer of Volantio, which counts Japan Airlines among its customers.

[A]

Still, the the growing use of AI and airline pricing is also fueling concerns over how the technology could evolve.

[B]

Consumer advocates and U.S. lawmakers last year warned airlines could eventually use generative AI for surveillance pricing by charging different customers different fares for the same seat based on personal data such as browsing history or income.

[A]

For carriers, though, the appeal of all this is straightforward. It's the ultimate secret sauce from an

[B]

airline perspective, said Alton Aviation's Terry it's

[A]

easier to lift revenue in today's environment than it is to cut costs.

[B]

And to do that, airlines continued to push the boundaries on where to generate new revenue. End quote.

[A]

Nothing more for you today.

[B]

Talk to you tomorrow.