Podcast Summary: The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 | Ian Bremmer

Podcast: TED Talks Daily
Host: Helen Walters (TED)
Guest: Ian Bremmer (Political Scientist, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media)
Date: January 6, 2026
Episode Theme:
An exploration of Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group’s annual top global risks report for 2026, highlighting the major geopolitical, economic, and societal dangers shaping the world. The conversation includes high-profile events, particularly U.S. foreign policy under President Trump, the consequences for Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere, deep concerns about the health of American and European political systems, as well as key insights on Russia, China, and the prospects for global stability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Context & Venezuela Crisis

• Main Event: The United States’ extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to New York, orchestrated by President Trump.
  • “The United States not only went in and got him and his wife, but there wasn’t a single American fatality. The staggering nature of how successful this was for the US Military and for Trump should not be underestimated.” (Ian Bremmer, 06:15)
  • Motivation was less about drugs, oil, or democracy and more about Trump’s personal vendetta and projection of American authority.
  • Core U.S. decision-makers: Trump, Stephen Miller (Deputy Chief of Staff), Marco Rubio (Sec. of State & NSA), John Ratcliffe (CIA Director).
  • “For Trump, a very large piece of this is... He is making me look bad. I have given him an ultimatum. I must remove him from power. Period. End of story.” (Ian Bremmer, 09:24)
  • No real plan for post-Maduro Venezuela governance—described as “Regime roulette” rather than regime change.

2. The “Don Row Doctrine”—New U.S. Foreign Policy

• The Don Row Doctrine emerges as an overtly “America First” strategy for the Western Hemisphere—asserting U.S. primacy in regional security and political outcomes.
  • Trump’s branding and search for other opportunities to “populate” the doctrine, including pressure on countries like Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and potentially Denmark (re: Greenland).
  • “He’s going to try to find other ways to populate the Don Row doctrine, which means maybe striking some drug targets inside Colombia or maybe even in Mexico.” (Ian Bremmer, 18:25)
• Discussion of Trump’s “tools” of power: diminishing ability to use tariffs, so increasing reliance on military strength.

3. Geopolitical “Spectrum” of Resistance and Compliance

• Description of two acronyms shaping global response to President Trump:
  • TACO - “Trump Always Chickens Out”: Asserted by opponents, indicating Trump backs down against strong resistance.
  • FAFO - “F*** Around and Find Out”: Asserted by supporters; if you defy Trump and are weak, destruction will follow.
  • “You have certain very powerful countries…they are the TACO countries…But then we’ve got the FAFO side, and Venezuela is obviously FAFO…” (Ian Bremmer, 23:20)
  • Examples: Brazil as TACO, Venezuela and Mexico as FAFO.
  • Denmark and Europe warned they may be treated as FAFO unless they build credible deterrence.
  • Reference to “law of the jungle” applied to international relations (steel vs. mush analogy).

4. U.S. Political Revolution—America’s Turmoil

• 2026 described as a “tipping point year” for U.S. politics.
• The U.S. is undergoing a “political revolution”, likened to Russia’s late Gorbachev-era—careening toward systemic upheaval with an unclear destination.
  • “Trump is not the cause of the dysfunction in the US political system. He is a symptom, he is a beneficiary, and he is an accelerant, but he’s not the cause.” (Ian Bremmer, 27:32)
  • Trump is pursuing an agenda that erodes political norms and the system of checks and balances.
• Analysis of resistance within the U.S.:
  • Checks remain: courts, military professionalism, federal-state system.
  • “If you made me bet today, I would say I believe that Trump’s political revolution will fail. But…I do not have a strong level of confidence in that call at this point. It’s moving quickly.” (Ian Bremmer, 34:20)
  • Fears of near-constitutional crises before 2028.

5. Europe Under Siege & Fragmentation Fears

• EU at significant risk due to internal political instability and external pressures (Russia, U.S. hostility).
  • Main European powers (UK, France, Germany) are internally distracted, slow to develop effective deterrence against U.S. pressure.
  • Risk: EU becomes more divided; influence, growth, and global regulatory power decline.
  • “The Europeans have been a regulatory superpower... That world is falling apart. And if the Europeans don’t make it, the European model is no longer going to have influence globally.” (Ian Bremmer, 42:10)
  • Individual European states likely to be “picked off” by larger powers, forced into uncomfortable choices.

6. Russia’s Second Front: Escalation Against NATO

• Russia’s greatest risk for 2026 is not Ukraine “hot war,” but asymmetric escalation against NATO's front-line states (cyberattacks, sabotage, drones).
  • European unity weakened as some states are less interested in supporting Ukraine.
  • “What we now see is a group of NATO countries that are starting to say we can’t tolerate this. We have to create a cost for the Russians to engage.” (Ian Bremmer, 46:10)
  • Growing risk of accidents or inadvertent conflict spilling over into NATO—major global risk.

7. U.S.-China Relations & The Taiwan Question

• U.S.-China relations in 2026 are “not a risk”:
  • Trump accepts China’s strength and focuses on stabilization, with significant business lobbying (e.g., NVIDIA chips to China).
  • Taiwan is a risk only on a longer (5-year) horizon.
  • “China, US...is not a risk at all this year. It’s a herring.” (Ian Bremmer, 48:35)

8. Reasons for Hope Despite Risk

• Bretton concludes the report “not optimistic, but hopeful”.
  • “I’m hopeful because we need a crisis...In that crisis, the seeds of opportunity—to create something that better reflects the interests of the American people—becomes more plausible.” (Ian Bremmer, 51:21)
  • Signs of hope: crisis creates opportunity for renewal, especially with AI and other tools for positive change.
  • Human agency and adaptability offer grounds for hope, though not easy optimism.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Personal Motivation in Venezuela:
  "You don't need to go to the oil and the drugs and the elections or the Chinese and the Russians and Hezbollah and Iran. There are lots of other stories...for Trump, a very large piece of this is, I'm angry about Maduro...Period. End of story." (Ian Bremmer, 09:24)

• On the Absence of a Post-Extraction Plan:
  "This is not regime change. This is regime roulette. You've taken out Maduro and now there's somebody new in charge that the Americans don't have a relationship with." (Ian Bremmer, 11:02)

• On Global Response Spectrum:
  "There have been two acronyms...TACO—'Trump Always Chickens Out'—and...FAFO—'F** Around and Find Out'. The reality is that both of these things exist at the same time, but along a spectrum."* (Ian Bremmer, 22:35)

• On Europe’s Decline if They Don’t ‘Step Up’:
  "The EU becomes more divided. It becomes more of a failed experiment...If the Europeans don’t make it, that means that the European model is no longer going to have influence globally." (Ian Bremmer, 39:58)

• On U.S. Political Revolution:
  "Trump is not the cause of the dysfunction...He is a symptom, he is a beneficiary, and he is an accelerant, but he's not the cause." (Ian Bremmer, 27:32)

• On Hope in Crisis:
  "I'm hopeful because we need a crisis...in that crisis, the seeds of opportunity...to create something that better reflects the interests of the American people...becomes much more plausible." (Ian Bremmer, 51:21)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Venezuela Extraction & U.S. Motivation – 05:00 to 12:00
• Don Row Doctrine & Implications for the Hemisphere – 17:12 to 21:25
• TACO vs. FAFO Spectrum in Geopolitics – 21:34 to 25:45
• America’s Political Revolution: Causes & Trajectory – 26:41 to 35:41
• Europe Under Siege – Internal and External Pressures – 35:41 to 42:10
• Europe’s Future if Fragmented – 39:58 to 43:08
• Russia’s Threat: Not Ukraine, but NATO Escalation – 43:08 to 48:19
• U.S.-China Relations & Taiwan – 48:19 to 50:50
• Reasons for Hope despite Deep Risks – 51:14 to 54:03

Final Reflection

Despite a cascade of democracies under siege and “law of the jungle” geopolitics, Ian Bremmer maintains hope that through crisis, restructuring is possible—driven not just by leaders, but by peoples’ demands for a more representative, effective system, and aided by technological tools. The message, though sober, ends not with blind optimism, but with a call to recognize agency and the urgency—"Pessimism is not hopelessness."