Are we heading toward World War III? | Heni Ozi Cukier

Summary

Podcast Summary: TED Talks Daily – "Are We Heading Toward World War III?" by Heni Ozi Cukier

Episode Overview In the July 24, 2025, episode of TED Talks Daily, political scientist Heni Ozi Cukier delves into a pressing and unsettling question: Are we on the brink of World War III? Drawing parallels from the antecedents of the first two World Wars, Cukier analyzes contemporary global dynamics through four critical dimensions—social, economic, political, and military—to uncover patterns that may indicate a return to large-scale conflict. This comprehensive exploration serves as both a reflection on historical lessons and a cautionary warning to avoid repeating past mistakes.

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1. Social Dimensions: Technological Innovations and Societal Anxiety

Historical Context and Contemporary Parallels

Cukier begins by examining how technological advancements have historically engendered social anxieties and destabilized societies.

• Pre-World War I Era (00:30): The Second Industrial Revolution introduced transformative technologies such as electricity, automobiles, telephones, and mass production. While these innovations propelled economic growth, they also caused significant societal disruptions. Machines replacing workers and new agricultural techniques forcing populations to urban areas led to widespread insecurity and resentment. This period saw traditional authorities like churches and monarchies being questioned, giving rise to labor unions and nationalist movements.

  "Technological progress brings incredible benefits, but they also breed insecurity, resentment, and uncertainty." – Heni Ozi Cukier [08:45]

• Interwar Period Before World War II (03:15): The 1920s and 1930s continued to witness technological advancements, including the introduction of the term "robot" in 1921, symbolizing fears of machine-induced unemployment. Economist John Maynard Keynes warned of "technological unemployment" in 1930. The rise of mass media transformed public discourse, becoming potent tools for propaganda that polarized politics and amplified social fears. Traditionalists feared that modern culture was eroding foundational societal structures like family and religion.

• Present Day (07:10): Today’s technological revolution, driven by artificial intelligence, digital media, and social platforms, echoes past disruptions. Innovations like the Internet, smartphones, and social media have revolutionized communication and work but have also sparked debates among psychologists regarding their impact on child development. Concerns over privacy, surveillance, and AI-driven job losses mirror historical anxieties, while technology continues to spread ideas globally, often exacerbating societal divisions more rapidly than ever before.

Key Insight: Technological advancements, while beneficial, can lead to societal instability by fostering insecurities and fueling extremist ideologies, making societies more susceptible to conflict.

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2. Economic Dimensions: Prosperity, Power, and the Risk of War

Dual Perspectives on Economics and Conflict

Cukier explores two primary perspectives on how economic factors influence the likelihood of war.

• First Perspective – Economic Prosperity as a Deterrent (10:20): The conventional wisdom suggests that economic prosperity reduces the propensity for war, as nations are disinclined to destroy their own wealth. Before World War I, nations like Britain and Germany enjoyed economic success, yet World War I erupted regardless.

  "Economics may explain what can be done, but politics decides what will be done." – Heni Ozi Cukier [12:05]

  Lesson from World War I: Despite economic interdependence between Britain and Germany, political ambitions, fears, and miscalculations led to war, demonstrating that economic stability alone does not prevent conflict.

• Second Perspective – Relative Power and Economic Nationalism (14:40): Contrarily, nations strive not just for wealth and power, but for supremacy over rivals. In the lead-up to World War II, Germany and Japan perceived their economic gains as insufficient compared to their rivals, leading them to seek self-sufficiency and expansion through war.

  Contemporary Context (18:30): Today, interdependence between the U.S. and China is often cited as a deterrent against war. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have prompted nations to reassess economic dependencies, pivoting towards self-sufficiency and economic nationalism. This mirrors the pre-World War II trend where economic rivalries fueled militaristic ambitions.

Key Insight: Economic factors alone are insufficient to prevent war; political, ideological, and strategic motivations play crucial roles. Increasing economic nationalism today may heighten the risk of conflict akin to historical precedents.

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3. Political Dimensions: Polarization and the Erosion of Political Order

Rise of Polarization and Its Consequences

Cukier highlights how political polarization can fracture societies and undermine political institutions, paving the way for conflict.

• Pre-World War I – Balkan Tensions (05:50): Deep polarization and nationalist movements within the Austro-Hungarian Empire led to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by the Serbian group, Black Hand, in 1914. This act was not isolated but the culmination of prolonged political violence and societal fragmentation.

• Pre-World War II – Weimar Republic Struggles (09:25): Germany's Weimar Republic faced escalating polarization and political violence, including the assassination of key figures like the finance minister in 1921 and the foreign minister in 1922. Various political factions formed militias, contributing to instability and the eventual rise of authoritarianism.

• Present-Day Polarization (16:15): Modern examples include the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and numerous assassination attempts against political figures. Germany has also experienced over 10,000 attacks on politicians in the past five years, predominantly targeting members of the far-right AfD party. Such extreme polarization makes compromise difficult and conflict inevitable, threatening the stability of political orders.

Key Insight: Extreme political polarization and violence weaken political institutions and societal cohesion, increasing the likelihood of internal conflicts escalating into larger-scale wars.

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4. Military Dimensions: Alliances and the Escalation from Regional to Global Conflict

The Role of Alliances in Escalating Conflicts

Cukier examines how military alliances can transform localized disputes into global wars.

• World War I Alliances (07:45): The conflict between Austria and Serbia escalated into a European, then global war due to entangled alliances. Britain's entry transformed a regional conflict into World War I.

• World War II Alliances (11:50): Initially comprised of separate regional conflicts initiated by Germany, Italy, and Japan, World War II became a global conflict with the United States joining after the Pearl Harbor attack. Notably, the Axis powers were not a cohesive alliance, often opposing each other.

• Current Global Alliances (19:55): Today, a new axis of authoritarian regimes—China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran—exhibits a higher level of integration compared to the Axis powers of the 1930s. These nations support each other through military supplies, economic ties, and strategic cooperation, unlike their historical counterparts who often conflicted among themselves. Conversely, NATO and democratic alliances are experiencing fragmentation and weakening, reducing their collective strength against authoritarian aggressors.

Potential Future Conflicts: Ongoing regional wars, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran’s proxy conflicts in the Middle East, alongside China's ambitions in Taiwan, could escalate through strengthened alliances, potentially igniting a global conflict.

Key Insight: Robust and cohesive alliances among authoritarian states increase the risk of regional conflicts expanding into global wars, especially when opposing alliances like NATO are fragmented and weakened.

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Conclusion: Learning from History to Prevent Future Wars

Heni Ozi Cukier concludes his talk with a powerful reminder:

"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." – Heni Ozi Cukier [21:35]

By identifying and understanding the historical patterns within the social, economic, political, and military dimensions, we gain valuable insights into the precariousness of the current global landscape. Cukier emphasizes the importance of recognizing these signs to avoid the catastrophic mistakes that have led to World Wars in the past. His analysis serves as a call to action for policymakers, leaders, and citizens to address underlying societal tensions, economic rivalries, political polarizations, and fragile alliances to steer the world away from the precipice of another global conflict.

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Final Thoughts Heni Ozi Cukier's thought-provoking analysis in this episode of TED Talks Daily underscores the intricate interplay of various global factors that could potentially lead to large-scale wars. By drawing lessons from history and applying them to current events, Cukier offers a compelling perspective on the urgent need to mitigate the risks that threaten global stability.

Transcript

[A]

You're listening to TED Talks Daily where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. A question that petrifies me, and I'm assuming everyone listening is the world on the brink of World War 3. In this talk, political scientist Henny Ozzie Cucier digs into the four major dimensions of war to uncover patterns of global dynamics and growing that led to World wars one and two. Through this lens of history, he shares a powerful and scary reflection on the present moment and a warning to not repeat the mistakes of the past. This episode is sponsored by upwork. Navigating today's economy. Well, it's a lot. Tariffs, tight budgets, hiring freezes. But if you're trying to build something right now, one of the smartest moves you can make is upwork. Upwork is the hiring platform designed for how business actually works. Today you can find hire and pay expert freelancers who deliver from day one without blowing your budget or your timeline. Whether you need support with AI design, admin work, or a new marketing strategy, upwork gives you access to top talent without the overhead of full time hires. No subscriptions, no upfront fees. Posting a job is free. You only pay when you hire. Never tried upwork? Well, now's the perfect time because they're giving our listeners a $200 credit. After spending one in your first 30 days, that's $200 you can put towards your next freelancer. Visit upwork.comsaveright now for this great offer that's up w o r k.com s a v e Don't wait. This offer is Only valid through August 5, 2025. This episode is sponsored by McDonald's. Okay, confession time. I love a good comeback story, especially when it's delicious and totally unexpected. Back in 2006, McDonald's released the snack wrap and it quickly became the Go to bite portable, crunchy, juicy perfection. Then it vanished. Gone. Poof. But the fans like me, oh, they never gave up. I'm talking nine years of petitions, Facebook groups, memes, international snack wrap, scouting missions. People built entire identities around this thing. It was intense in the best way. And now it's back. Yes, really. Thanks to relentless sauce loving dedication, McDonald's brought back the snack wrap. Think crispy, juicy white meat, shredded lettuce, melty cheese, all hugged in a soft tortilla and drizzled with ranch or your pick of sauces. It was never supposed to return, but the fans made it happen. Because sometimes passion wins. And sometimes it tastes like a snack wrap. Try the snack wrap that broke the Internet at a McDonald's near you. This episode is brought to you by Nordstrom. Okay, if you're like me, you wait all year for the Nordstrom anniversary sale. Because it's not about clearing out old stuff. It's about scoring new arrivals on sale. Think of it as a rare moment when time bends in our favor. Fresh styles, beauty exclusives, even home goods up to 33% off. It's the perfect time to stock up on those pieces you'll wear or use on repeat. And yes, there are great finds for under $100 from brands like Madewell, Free People, and Charlotte Tilbury. The sale is on now, but not forever. Prices go up Aug. 4, and Nordstrom makes it easy, which, honestly, we all need. There's online order pickup, free shipping, free returns, and even free style help. If you're stuck in decision fatigue, check out all the fun anniversary events happening at Nordstrom near you, like in store promotions and daily beauty events. Shop now. Your future self will thank you.

[B]

History has taught us many lessons, and we should pay attention to its signs because we might be heading towards World War three. One way to understand today's events is to look for clues from the past. But cherry picking historical events to forecast the future is a risky exercise that it oftentimes only reinforces our biases. So I want to do something different. Instead of comparing historical examples with what is happening now, I will examine four major dimensions of the social, economic, political, and military dimensions. And I will analyze key trends within each one of those dimensions in three critical moments in history before World War I, before World War II, and today. So let's begin with the social dimension, and there are many factors that shape societies, but I want to focus on how technological innovations have produced social anxieties and destabilize societies throughout history. Before World War I, the second industrial revolution was transforming life with electricity, cars, phones, mass production, and more. While many celebrated these advances, they also disrupted societies. For instance, machines replace workers, and new farming techniques uprooted populations from the countryside. This led to insecurity and resentment at the same time. Traditional authorities such as churches and monarchies were questioned at that time, and new mass movements emerged, such as labor unions and nationalist leagues. People were afraid that progress was shaking the very foundation of societies. Moving a little bit ahead in the interwar years before World War II, technology continued to affect life. The word robot was even coined in 1921, and it symbolizes fears of possibly machines substituting human jobs. At the same time or a little bit later. The Famous economist John Maynard Keynes warned us in 1930 of a new disease, namely technological unemployment. During this period we had communications revolutions that completely changed public discourse. So this media became powerful tools for propaganda, polarizing politics and amplifying social fears. Traditionalists at that time, they were worried that modern culture was simply eroding tradition, family and religion. Today, we are going through a technological revolution driven by AI, digital media and social platforms. The Internet, smartphones and social media have transformed the way we work, communicate and even think. Psychologists debate how digital life is affecting children's developments. While concerns over privacy and surveillance and AI driven job loss continue to grow. Technologies are spreading ideas across the globe. But also they are amplifying frustrations, fears and divisions faster than ever before. In short, technological progress brings incredible benefits. But they also breed insecurity, resentment and uncertainty. Historically, such anxieties have made societies more unstable and vulnerable to extreme ideologies that fuel militarism and war. Now, let's talk about the economics. And I want to present two perspectives on the economics. The first one is related to a common idea that economic prosperity prevents wars. And the argument goes like this. I mean, it makes no sense for a nation to go to war and destroy its own wealth. So they don't want to go to war. Before World War I in 1914, Britain dominated global trade and finance. Germany was thriving industrially and expanding its exports. Both countries, they knew that there were no financial benefits that justify the enormous economic costs of going to war. However, World War I taught us a very important lesson. Economics may explain what can be done, but politics decides what will be done. Fear, ambition, miscalculation. All overruled by even the strongest economic success. Showing us that simply war and peace are not decided by economic arguments alone. We have to take into consideration political, ideological and strategic reasons. Okay, so what is going on with the second perspective? And the common perspective says the people assume that nations want to be wealthy and powerful. It's not that they don't want that they do, but they want something else. It's better for them if they are wealthier or more powerful than their rivals. Right? So what matters is the relative power. I want to be more powerful. I don't want to be just powerful. I want to be more powerful than my enemy or my rival. Let's look at what happened at World War II. In that moment, Germany and Japan did not see trade as mutually beneficial. Why? They were gaining less than their rivals, Britain, France and the US which made them vulnerable. What was their response? Searching for self sufficiency and eventually, war. All right, so what is going on today? There are two main ideas that we see all over the U.S. china, economic interdependence will prevent war. Really? I just told you what happened in World War I, right. So economics alone do not determine geopolitical outcomes. We have to consider political, strategic, ideological, and many other factors. When we think of what is going on after or what happened after the COVID 19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at that moment, states realize that it's too risky to be really dependent on your rival. So as nations reassess today their economic dependencies, they are all moving towards one thing or actually 2. Self sufficiency and economic nationalism. Just like before World War II, history reminds us that wars are not only caused by economic situations, but we have to take into consideration political factors and relative power. All right, so let's go to the political dimension here. I want to talk about polarization. And polarization not only divides societies, but ultimately it might destroy the political order. Polarization comes in many forms. Divided media, political battles, legislative deadlocks, contested elections, and its worst form, political violence. And that's when armed groups emerged because they don't trust institutions to resolve the disputes of society. What we have in World War I before that, actually in the Balkans, there is deep polarization and many nationalist movements clashing against the Austro Hungarian Empire. And that led to the Serbian group, the secret Serbian group, Black Hand, to assassinate the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, which wasn't an isolated event. It was the result of years of political violence in a fractured society that triggered World War I. Now what do we have before World War II? The same situation Germany, the Weimar Republic was struggling with. Escalating polarization and violence became common. Assassinations of key political figures such as the the finance minister in 1921 and the foreign minister in 1922. They demonstrated this soon. At that time, all political factions from the right, the center and the left, they had their own militias. And obviously this brought instability and we know the rise of authoritarianism and World War II. What do we have today? Very interesting and scary in some ways. January 6, 2021 the attack on US Capitol. Some Trump supporters contested the result of the election. That is a clear example where polarization became violent. More recently, several assassination attempts against President Trump. Polarization and violence in the United States is coming from all sides, but this is not only the U.S. let's look at Germany. There's a deep surge or a big surge in political violence in Germany over the last five years. More than 10,000 attacks on politicians. While the far right supporters of AfD have committed a lot of attacks against other politicians, the politicians from AfD themselves, they are frequent targets for this political violence. As you can see, the signs are really big. And when we analyze what history shows us, we realize that once armed groups emerge, compromise becomes impossible and conflict inevitable. If polarization nowadays has reached this level, society or the political order is on the brink of collapse. Now let's go to the final dimension, the military dimension. And here I want to focus on alliances, because they are key to understand how conflicts become worldwide disasters. Wars or world wars, they don't start as global wars. They begin as regional wars. And then a regional problem becomes this big problem because of the alliances. Let's take a look at World War I. Before that, we had a dispute between Austria and Serbia. And because of the alliance, it escalated to become an European war. And once Britain joined, it became a global war. The same thing happened in World War II. We had three regional conflicts, separated conflicts initiated by three different countries. Germany won an hegemony in Europe. Italy sought an empire in the Mediterranean and Africa. And Japan wanted to control China and Asia Pacific. World War II only became a world war when the United States entered the war after the Pearl harbor attack. So how is this related to today? We already have two regional wars. Russia in Ukraine and Iran, with its proxies, wars in the Middle East. And the third one is taking shape as China aims to take Taiwan. Maybe in that third theater, we're going to see more countries joining. And then, as in World War II, we're going to have three regional conflicts that become a global war. There's another important aspect of alliances, which is the level of integration, how united they really are. And this is interesting. When we look at the axis powers of 1930s, Germany, Italy and Japan, they were not allied, really. Actually, they were on opposite sides. When we look at the crisis In Austria in 1934 and in Ethiopia in 1935, Italy was on one side and Germany was on the other. When we look at who was helping China against Japan until late 1938, that was Germany. And then comparing this, today we have a new axis being formed. China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. Today, they are all united. Like who sends ammunitions, weapons and even soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine? North Korea. Who gives food and energy to North Korea? China. Who buys Iran's sanctioned oil? China. Who buys Russia's gas? China. And China supplies Russia with electronic equipment to keep its war. As you can see, the axis of today, which I call the axis of dictatorships, they're really united much more than the axis of the 30s. And on the other hand, we look at the opposing alliance, which is what NATO and the democracies, they're falling apart and they're breaking and they are divided. History tells us that alliances are very important. If we have the aggressors alliance growing stronger and the opposing alliance becoming divided and weak, the incentives for their aggressors to strike, they are really big. I'm not here talking about any inevitable destiny, but I'm looking for historical patterns that help us connect the dots. And with that we might not repeat the mistakes of the past. And to end, I want to remind you of the famous aphorism history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Thank you.

[A]

That was Henny ozzie cookie at TedX Lisboa in 2025. If you're curious about Ted's curation, find out more at Ted.comCurationGuidelines and that's it for today's show. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Greene, Lucy Little, Alejandra Salazar and Tonsika Sarmarnivon. It was mixed by Christopher Faizy Bogan. Additional support from Emma Tobner and Daniela Balaurazo. I'm Elise Hu. I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed. Thanks for listening. This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Each Apple product, like the iPhone 16, is thoughtfully designed by skilled designers. The titanium Apple Card is no different. It's laser etched, has no numbers and it earns you daily cash on everything you buy, including 3% back on everything at Apple. Apply for Apple Card on your iPhone in minutes, subject to credit approval. Apple Card is issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and [e-mail] Listen up. You can get the new iPhone 16e with Apple Intelligence for just $49.99 when you switch to Boost Mobile. We pulled so many all nighters to give you this deal. And hey, stop messing with the mic. I'm just helping helping us catch people's attention.

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