How to see the future coming — and prepare for it | Jane McGonigal

Summary

Summary of "How to See the Future Coming — and Prepare for It" | Jane McGonagall | TED Talks Daily

Podcast Information:

• Title: TED Talks Daily
• Host/Author: TED
• Episode Title: How to see the future coming — and prepare for it | Jane McGonagall
• Release Date: March 17, 2025

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Introduction

In this compelling episode of TED Talks Daily, game designer and futurist Jane McGonagall delves into the critical importance of expanding our imaginations to anticipate and prepare for future challenges. Hosted by Elise Hu, Jane presents thought-provoking hypothetical scenarios that encourage listeners to think creatively and courageously about possible futures.

The Danger of "Unimaginable" and "Unthinkable"

Jane begins by asserting, "As a futurist, I think the two most dangerous words in the English language are 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable'" (02:22). She emphasizes that these terms limit our ability to foresee and address potential crises, thereby increasing societal vulnerability.

Engaging with Hypothetical Future Scenarios

To illustrate her point, Jane introduces a series of hypothetical future scenarios, urging the audience to engage in a "what if" game to explore their feelings and potential actions in these imagined worlds.

1. Sun Exit: Geoengineering to Combat Climate Change

• Scenario Overview:

  • Year: 2033
  • Situation: Extreme climate conditions—heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts—have surpassed dire predictions.
  • Solution: A global vote on "Sun Exit," a 10-year solar radiation management plan involving the injection of sulfate particles into the atmosphere to block some of the sun's rays.

• Key Questions Presented:

  • "Is it worth the risks? The unintended consequences?" (02:45)
  • "How would you educate yourself to be ready to vote?" (02:55)

• Scenario Development:

  • Outcome: Sun Exit is approved and implemented.
  • Impact: Geoengineering alleviates climate issues but leads to a "ten-year winter" and a decline in trust in science due to perceived mental and physical side effects.

• Audience Engagement:

  • Listeners are prompted to consider their emotional and practical responses to the immediate implementation and long-term consequences of geoengineering.

2. Zero Waste Authoritarianism

• Scenario Overview:

  • Year: 2029
  • Situation: Governments enforce strict zero-waste policies, making it illegal to dispose of waste traditionally. Only composting remains permissible.

• Positive Spin: Introduction of the term "xerophoria," a positive emotion combining joy, pride, and resourcefulness derived from a zero-waste lifestyle.

• Key Questions Presented:

  • "How do you react to these changes?" (04:15)
  • "Do you learn new habits, help others adapt, or join the resistance?" (04:25)

• Audience Engagement:

  • Encourages listeners to think about personal adaptations, community support, or activism in response to stringent environmental policies.

3. Climate Migration and the Welcome Party

• Scenario Overview:

  • Year: 2031
  • Situation: Climate-induced migration escalates, with countries establishing "welcome cities" and offering incentives for relocation.

• Key Questions Presented:

  • "Which three climate-resilient cities would you choose?" (05:40)
  • "How prepared do you feel to consider this question?" (05:50)

• Audience Engagement:

  • Listeners are asked to identify potential destinations and assess their readiness for large-scale climate migration, considering social and economic support systems.

Building Imagination Leadership Skills

Jane explains her role at the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, where she facilitates the development of "imagination leadership skills." This involves:

• Simulating Hard-to-Imagine Futures:

  • Engaging individuals in envisioning diverse and challenging future scenarios.

• Improving Future Imagination Metrics:

  • Plausibility/Realistic: Assessing how thinkable a scenario is.
  • Realistic Hope: Gauging emotional responses—worry or excitement.
  • Future Power: Measuring readiness to act in support of oneself and others.

• Impact of Imagination Exercises:

  • Participants show significant increases in "future power" after envisioning and strategizing within hypothetical worlds.

Overcoming Limiting Language

Jane urges listeners to replace "unthinkable" and "unimaginable" with proactive engagement:

• "The next time you have an instinct to describe a possibility as unthinkable or unimaginable, wait. Play with that possibility instead." (06:45)

• She advocates for a societal shift towards confidently addressing and solving previously unmanageable challenges through collective imagination and action.

Conclusion and Call to Action

Jane concludes with a powerful message:

• "For us, there are no unthinkable futures. Thank you." (07:50)

She calls on the audience to join in fostering a community capable of facing and overcoming future uncertainties through enhanced imaginative and leadership skills.

Final Thoughts

Jane McGonagall's talk serves as a compelling reminder of the power of imagination in shaping our readiness for the future. By engaging with hypothetical scenarios, individuals and communities can better anticipate risks, seize opportunities for positive transformation, and build resilience against unforeseen challenges.

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Notable Quotes:

• "As a futurist, I think the two most dangerous words in the English language are 'unimaginable' and 'unthinkable'." – Jane McGonagall (02:22)

• "The next time you have an instinct to describe a possibility as unthinkable or unimaginable, wait. Play with that possibility instead." – Jane McGonagall (06:45)

• "For us, there are no unthinkable futures." – Jane McGonagall (07:50)

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This episode encourages listeners to transcend conventional thinking, embrace creative foresight, and actively prepare for a multitude of possible futures. Jane McGonagall's insights provide valuable tools for individuals and societies striving to navigate an increasingly complex and unpredictable world.

Transcript

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[Jane McGonigal]

As a futurist, I think the two most dangerous words in the English language are unimaginable and unthinkable. So I want to invite you to think creatively and courageously about some hard to imagine possibilities. Let's play a game of what if. I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios. You try to imagine how you would feel and what you would do if you woke up in these strange new worlds. Future number one, it's 2033. Extreme heat, wildfire and droughts have been worse than even the most dire climate predictions. So now geoengineering is up for a global vote. Nine billion people are eligible to vote yes or no on a 10 year plan of aggressive solar radiation management. Injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere to block some of the sun's rays. The election is called Sun Exit. They're saying a yes on sun Exit could bring about a ten year winter. But it could also solve some of our biggest climate challenges. Is it worth the risks? The unintended consequences? How would you vote? How would you educate yourself to be ready to vote? Scenario update. Sunexit passed. We're doing it. Solar radiation management starts in 10 days. Now how do you feel? What do you do in the next 10 days to get ready? Okay, it's one year later. The geoengineering is working, yes, but paradoxically, trust in science is now at an all time low. People are saying there are mental and physical side effects. Is it just misinformation? What do you do to stay healthy? New Future. Okay, it's 2029 now and your federal government has gone full blown zero waste authoritarian style. It is now illegal to throw anything away. They literally took everyone's garbage cans. Now composting's still allowed. Recycling never worked. And garbage? You can't make any of it nothing. But there's some good news. Psychologists have invented a new word to capture the positive emotion that defines life in a zero waste xerophoria. It's a combination of joy, pride and resourcefulness. A lightness of being that comes from wasting nothing and leaving no trace behind. How do you react to these changes? Do you learn new habits, help others adapt? Or do you rise up and join the pro trash resistance or become a reformer? Propose ways to make zero waste society better? Okay, let's imagine one final future. It's 2031. Climate migration is on the rise. Countries with low fertility rates are competing with each other for immigrants. Governments are building climate resilient welcome cities and paying people to move there. It's part of a new geopolitical movement called the welcome party. Up to 1 billion people are expected to climate relocate with assistance over the next decade. You have been asked to take a personal survey of climate risk and intention to migrate. The welcome party is collecting data to simulate and plan a safe and equitable mass climate migration. You have to name three climate resilient cities. You would be willing to move to given social and economic support. Which three cities do you name? How prepared do you feel to consider this question? Why am I posing these hypotheticals? Well, how often we use the words unimaginable and unthinkable in our journalism. Look how common they've become. We are so often shocked and blindsided by how the future unfolds. But it doesn't have to be that way. At the nonprofit Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, California, I help people build imagination leadership skills by simulating hard to imagine futures like you've thought about today. Our goal is to improve everyone's scores on three measures of future imagination, like mental flexibility. On a scale of 1 to 10, how plausible or realistic is this future scenario? In other words, is it thinkable to you? Also realistic hope. On a scale of 1 to 10, how worried or excited would you be to wake up in this future? We want you to anticipate new risks, but also opportunities for positive transformation and finally, future power. On a scale of 1 to 10, how ready do you feel to help yourself and others if this future were really to happen? This is the number we see go up the most after people imagine themselves taking action in a hypothetical world. So the next time you have an instinct to describe a possibility as unthinkable or unimaginable, wait. Play with that possibility instead. Help us become a community, a society that can confidently say we can face and we can solve previously unimaginable challenges together. For us, there are no unthinkable futures. Thank you.

[Elise Hu]

That was Jane McGonigal at TED Next 2024. If you're curious about TED's curation, find out [e-mail] curationguidelines and that's it for today's show. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Greene, Lucy Little, Alejandra Salazar, and Tonsika Sarmarnivon. It was mixed by Christopher Faisey Bogan. Additional support from Emma Tobner and Daniela Ballaraiza. I'm Elise Hu. I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed. Thanks for listening.

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