Summary of TED Talks Daily: "The Emerging Science of Finding Critical Metals"

Speaker: Mfikeyi Makayi
Date: September 24, 2025
Host: TED Talks Daily

Episode Overview

This episode features mining innovator Mfikeyi Makayi presenting at the TED Countdown Summit in Nairobi, Kenya. Makayi addresses the pressing global need for critical metals—like lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel—to power the transition to electric vehicles, renewable energy, and a circular economy. She explores the shortcomings of current mining exploration practices and introduces breakthrough AI-aided technologies developed by her team at Cobalt, aimed at making mining more efficient, sustainable, and socially responsible.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Foundation: Why We Need Critical Metals

• Makayi begins by grounding the need for metals in everyday life, from copper earrings and mobile phones to wind turbines and electric vehicles.

  • Quote [02:59]:
    “Everything we build and use was either grown or mined, from the walls to the windows, the tables and the chairs, your phones, your computers, the stage, my copper earrings, and maybe your jewelry.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

• The shift toward a clean, circular economy depends on abundant access to recyclable materials and the construction of over 400 new mines by 2040.

2. Exploration vs. Innovation Gap in Mining

• Makayi draws attention to a startling disparity: for every dollar mining companies return to shareholders, less than a penny is spent on exploration—a stark contrast to sectors like pharmaceuticals and tech.

  • Quote [04:12]:
    “In mining, however, for every dollar returned to shareholders, less than a penny is spent in exploration.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

• As a result, technological innovation in mining exploration has stagnated, and discovering new ore bodies has become ten times less effective over the past 30 years.

3. The Challenge: It’s Not Scarcity, It’s Information

• Most ore deposits aren't gone—they're simply deeper underground or hidden from easy detection.
• The real crisis is a lack of information. Traditional geoscience modeling is limited by under-sampling and two-dimensional data projected onto three-dimensional realities.

4. Predictive Technology: AI & Machine Learning in Mining

• Makayi and her team at Cobalt are revolutionizing exploration by using machine learning to generate and simulate thousands of possible underground rock formations based on limited data—dramatically accelerating and improving predictions.

  • Quote [06:05]:
    “We're developing machine learning technologies that helps us predict all of this and rigorously quantify our uncertainties in these predictions.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

• Their AI models help determine where best to collect new data by identifying where prediction uncertainty is highest, optimizing spending and reducing waste.

5. Rethinking Mine Design: Embracing Uncertainty

• Conventional mining plans are based on a single (often flawed) model of what's underground.
• The new “Cobo Mine” optimization tool compares many possible ore body geometries and mine designs, maximizing ore recovery, minimizing waste and water use, and improving cash flow projections.
  • Quote [09:35]:
    “This enables the best decisions about how much ore we're going to mine, how much waste we're going to produce, how much water we'll use, the cash flows and so on.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

6. Triple Bottom Line: Profitability, Safety, Sustainability

• Enhanced geologic predictions support smarter, safer, and more environmentally-friendly operations.
• More accurate models foster resilient mining operations that can better serve local communities, withstand market shifts, and reduce their environmental footprint.
  • Quote [10:34]:
    “Better predictions don't just mean profitability, it means a safer mine knowing where the rocks are weaker. It means an environmentally sustainable mine so we can lessen our impact on the environment.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

7. Zambia as a Model: The Mingomba Project

• Makayi highlights the Mingomba project in Zambia as a blueprint for the future, bringing together local and global talent and leveraging their advanced technologies “to design and develop a mine based on our predictions, for which we've only sampled a tiny fraction of rock.”
  • Quote [10:49]:
    “Our Mingomba project in Zambia will be the mine of the future. It's being designed and developed by amazing talent from around the world, including Zambians and Africans like myself.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We don't lack ore body deposits, we lack information of where they lie.” — Mfikeyi Makayi [05:00]
• “We’ve invented a different way. We collect all the possibilities consistent with the data measured... We do this 10,000 times faster by training an AI to learn the relevant physics...” — Mfikeyi Makayi [06:53]
• Audience Challenge [07:42]: Makayi asks listeners to imagine predicting the copper concentration 1,000 meters below—right where they're sitting, and then for their neighbor, across the room, or in another city—underscoring the immense challenge of limited data.
• Vision for Mining’s Future [11:04]: “The mining industry must ensure they transform so we can become responsible miners and build better mines with better technology. Asante and thank you.” — Mfikeyi Makayi

Important Timestamps

• 02:56 – Makayi begins: personal background, mining’s foundational role in society
• 04:12 – The critical underinvestment in exploration vs. other industries
• 05:10 – The real issue: information, not resource scarcity
• 06:05 – Introduction to AI and prediction technology in exploration
• 07:42 – Audience challenge: demonstrating the scale and uncertainty of subsurface prediction
• 09:25 – Cobo Mine: AI-powered mine design, planning for uncertainty
• 10:34 – Benefits: safety, resilience, environmental responsibility
• 10:49 – The Mingomba Project and future outlook

Conclusion

Mfikeyi Makayi offers both an urgent call and an optimistic vision for the mining industry: harnessing data, AI, and new thinking not only to find the metals that will fuel humanity's greener future, but to do so with responsibility, inclusion, and sustainability at the core. Her team’s innovations are setting a new global standard, and their work in Zambia exemplifies how technology and thoughtful stewardship can transform even the most traditional industries.