What you're missing by focusing on the average | Sharon Zicherman

Summary

TED Talks Daily: Episode Summary

Title: What You're Missing by Focusing on the Average
Speaker: Sharon Zuckerman
Release Date: March 12, 2025
Host: Elise Hu

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Introduction

In this compelling episode of TED Talks Daily, host Elise Hu introduces Sharon Zuckerman, a management consultant whose personal battle with colorectal cancer prompted her to reevaluate the reliance on average metrics in critical decision-making. Sharon's insightful discourse challenges the conventional use of averages, advocating for a more nuanced approach that considers individual circumstances and outliers.

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Personal Journey and Realization

Sharon Zuckerman begins by recounting her diagnosis in March 2022 with stage 3C colorectal cancer, a stage indicating that the cancer had spread to multiple lymph nodes. Faced with a daunting 50% five-year survival rate, Sharon, at 39 years old, grappled with the impersonal nature of statistical averages. She pondered, "How could it be that the odds of me surviving to my 44th birthday were no better than a coin flip?" (02:38)

This pivotal moment led her to recognize that averages often obscure the diverse factors influencing individual outcomes, such as age, lifestyle, genetics, and advancements in treatment. Sharon's professional expertise in deconstructing data further fueled her quest to understand the limitations of average-based metrics.

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Key Questions About Averages

Sharon outlines three critical questions to assess the validity of using averages in decision-making:

1. Is the average the right metric?
2. Am I focusing on the right average?
3. What am I missing by focusing on the average?

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1. Is the Average the Right Metric?

Sharon emphasizes that targeting the average may not always align with specific goals, especially in risk management. She illustrates this with the Burj Khalifa, which was designed to withstand a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, significantly higher than the regional average of 52 earthquakes per year in the UAE, most being magnitude 4. She states, "Designing a safe structure requires planning for more than just the average risk" (04:20). This example underscores the necessity of exceeding average standards to ensure safety and resilience.

Personal Anecdote: Sharon shares a relatable example from her family life: choosing a scary movie based on the household's average age resulted in her young child missing sleep. "The average was simply not the right metric" (04:45).

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2. Am I Focusing on the Right Average?

Determining the appropriate average to consider is crucial. Sharon discusses the use of Automated External Defibrillators (AEDs), noting that despite the average 200 cardiac arrests in public spaces daily in the US, AED usage is low at about 10%. However, the real value lies not in the average usage rate but in the significant impact when an AED is employed swiftly. "Your chance of survival can jump to 9 in 10" if an AED shock is administered within the first minute (05:50).

Similarly, Sharon revisits her cancer statistics, revealing that over 80% of colorectal cancers occur in individuals over 49 years old, a demographic she did not belong to. Moreover, advancements in her specific treatment plan were not reflected in the outdated average data she initially encountered. "If you've decided to rely on an average to make decisions, make sure it's the right one" (07:10).

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3. What Am I Missing by Focusing on the Average?

Even when the correct average is identified, focusing solely on it can lead to overlooking critical outliers. Sharon reflects on her first job at a real estate investment firm before the subprime mortgage crisis. Companies that thrived did so by not merely focusing on average default rates but by analyzing worst-case scenarios and potential outliers that could jeopardize entire investments.

Referencing Dr. Jeffrey Rediger's book, Cured, Sharon highlights the importance of studying spontaneous remissions in terminal patients. These "miracle cases," often dismissed as statistical anomalies, could offer valuable insights for individualized treatments. "What may not be statistically significant for the average patient could make all the difference for an individual patient" (07:55).

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Conclusion and Personal Commitment

Sharon concludes by sharing her personal commitment to setting a 100% survivorship target for herself, moving beyond the impersonal average odds that initially overwhelmed her. Her journey underscores the importance of individualized metrics and the ethical imperative to consider outliers in all facets of decision-making, from healthcare to engineering and beyond.

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Notable Quotes

• "How could it be that the odds of me surviving to my 44th birthday were no better than a coin flip?" — Sharon Zuckerman (02:38)
• "Designing a safe structure requires planning for more than just the average risk" — Sharon Zuckerman (04:20)
• "The average was simply not the right metric" — Sharon Zuckerman (04:45)
• "Your chance of survival can jump to 9 in 10" — Sharon Zuckerman (05:50)
• "If you've decided to rely on an average to make decisions, make sure it's the right one" — Sharon Zuckerman (07:10)
• "What may not be statistically significant for the average patient could make all the difference for an individual patient" — Sharon Zuckerman (07:55)

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Final Thoughts

Sharon Zuckerman's talk serves as a powerful reminder to critically evaluate the metrics we rely on, especially averages that may not accurately represent individual circumstances or capture vital outliers. Her insights advocate for a more personalized approach in various domains, encouraging listeners to question and refine the data that informs their most critical decisions.

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For more information on TED's curation process, visit ted.com/curationguidelines.

Transcript

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[Elise Hu]

You're listening to TED Talks Daily where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. Change agent Sharon Zickerman's cancer diagnosis led him to question whether survival averages and using averages as a metric generally is even a useful metric to begin with. His 2024 talk illuminates a few questions to ask ourselves before we focus on averages and how to learn from them if we do.

[Sharon Zuckerman]

In March 2022, I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Within days, I had learned that the cancer had already penetrated the walls of my colon and spread to multiple lymph nodes. My doctor explained that this was categorized as stage 3C. I immediately sought to educate myself about the disease and its treatment. I found a study that said the chances of me surviving more than five years was about 50%. I was 39 years old at the time. I wasn't a health nut, but I was active. I didn't always make the best food choices, but I didn't consider myself unhealthy either. How could it be that the odds of me surviving to my 44th birthday were no better than a coin flip? Initially, I was paralyzed by that number. But then I realized that I wasn't just a number, and neither were the other people in that statistic. The average survival rate included people much older than me, people with different lifestyles and histories, some with genetic preconditions, and others who may have been heavy smokers for decades. This realization prompted a fundamental shift in my thinking, so I started to deeply question how we use averages, especially in moments that shape our lives. I I'm a management consultant and my job is often to deconstruct data into its finer granularities, what is commonly called de averaging. I look beyond surface level averages to help my clients understand their customers needs and take the right decisions on things such as pricing or service. As I navigated my own diagnosis, three key questions emerged about averages. One Is the average the right metric? Two Am I focusing on the right average? And three what am I missing by focusing on the average? First, is the average the right metric? When designing a car or cooking a meal, it's common to aim for broad appeal. People often target the average person, but there are instances where the average is the wrong metric altogether, especially when managing risk. Take the Burj Khalifa, for example. While Dubai is not situated on a tectonic fault line, it does experience earthquakes on average. There are 52 earthquakes in the UAE per year, most of a magnitude 4 on the Richter scale. Yet the tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa, was designed to withstand a 7.0 magnitude earthquake. Because the developers decided to look beyond the averages in their planning, can you imagine the implication if they had planned for the average intensity of earthquakes in the region? Designing a safe structure requires planning for more than just the average risk, and this applies to our everyday decisions too. One family movie night, I chose a scary movie that was age appropriate based on the average age in my household. 23. Needless to say, my 6 year old got very little sleep that night. The average was simply not the right metric. Second Question if the average is the right metric, ask yourself if you're considering the right average. For instance, I've never witnessed someone using an automated external defibrillator or an aed. I know where they are in my office and I've noticed them in restaurants, but I've never seen one in action. Have you? The reason is that on average There are about 200 cardiac arrests in public spaces in the US daily, and in only 10% of these cases does a bystander use an AED. The average usage of an AED must be very low. But the value of having an AED accessible isn't based on the average likelihood of witnessing a cardiac arrest or using an aed. It's about the impact when one is used. Every minute after a cardiac arrest, your chance of survival decreases by 7 to 10%. If you receive an AED shock within the first minute, your chance of survival can jump to 9 in 10. In this case Focusing on the right metric the potential impact of having an AED makes all the difference in rationalizing why we invest so much. This was the case with my cancer diagnosis as well. The survival statistic that I encountered was based on broad data covering many ages and geographies. What I didn't know initially was that over 80% of colorectal cancers occur in people over the age of 49, 10 years older than I was. Plus this data was outdated and didn't consider my specific treatment plan, which had only been developed in recent years. If you've decided to rely on an average to make decisions, make sure it's the right one. Ask yourself what does this average include that may not be relevant in my situation and is there a more relevant average that applies based on my context? Anyone who's driven in LA knows the difference between planning for the average commute versus the rush hour commute. Finally, if the average is the right metric to look at for your objective, and you are looking at the most relevant average, you still need to ask yourself the third question. What am I leaving out by focusing on the average? My first job was at a real estate investment firm before the subprime mortgage crisis. We all know how that worked out for many of the players, but firms that survived relatively unscathed did so because they didn't just focus on the average default rates. When analyzing investments, they examined the worst case scenarios, the outliers that had the potential to tank investment's entire value. Learning from the averages often means ignoring the outliers, but there's a lot that we can learn. In his book Cured, Dr. Jeffrey Rediger explores spontaneous remissions in terminally ill patients. These so called miracle cases often defy scientific understanding and are typically dismissed as statistical flukes. Surely some of these are. But what if we studied these outliers more closely? They could hold valuable insights even if they don't fit the average mold. What may not be statistically significant for the average patient could make all the difference for an individual patient. It's critical that when we decide to use the average and are looking at the right one, we also consider outliers. Otherwise, we could find ourselves getting an average medical treatment instead of one tailored to our specific needs. I was fortunate enough not to be a terminal case like those that Dr. Rediger studied, but after reconsidering the average, I realized that 5050 odds wouldn't be relevant in my case. I set a different metric for my own survivorship and I'm targeting 100%. Thank you.

[Elise Hu]

That was Sharon Zuckerman recorded for TED at BCG in 2024. If you're curious about Ted's curation, find out [e-mail] curationguidelines and that's it for today's show. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced and edited team Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Greene, Lucy Little, Alejandra Salazar and Tonsika Sarmarnivon. It was mixed by Christopher Faizy Bogan. Additional support from Emma Tobner and Daniela Ballarezzo. I'm Elise Hu. I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh.

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