Why violence is rising with global temperatures | Peter Schwartzstein - TED Talks Daily

Summary of "Why Violence is Rising with Global Temperatures" by Peter Schwartzstein

Podcast: TED Talks Daily
Host: Elise Hu
Speaker: Peter Schwartzstein
Release Date: January 8, 2025

In the TED Talk titled "Why Violence is Rising with Global Temperatures," climate journalist Peter Schwartzstein delves into the intricate relationship between escalating global temperatures and the surge in various forms of violence worldwide. Drawing from over a decade of reporting across multiple conflict zones, Schwartzstein presents a compelling argument that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a significant catalyst for social instability and violence.

Introduction: The Climate-Violence Nexus

Peter Schwartzstein opens his talk by highlighting the emerging patterns that link climate change to increased violence. He emphasizes that while climate change alone does not cause violence, it exacerbates existing tensions and conflicts, acting as a force multiplier in regions already grappling with instability.

Case Study 1: ISIS Recruitment in Central Iraq

Timestamp: [01:34]

Schwartzstein recounts the tactics employed by ISIS in late 2013 to recruit individuals from the Tharfar area of central Iraq. Facing severe drought conditions, ISIS targeted drought-stricken villagers who were already struggling with failed harvests due to extended periods of weak rains and intense heat.

"Who are aware of the depth of distrust of government after so many years of conflict, recruiters even got adept at casting these conditions as a product of state action. That drought. One villager remembered an ISIS member telling him that it was because of government scientists' manipulation of the weather." ([02:15])

ISIS leveraged the dire climatic conditions to sow distrust in governmental institutions, presenting themselves as the solution to the villagers' plight. By consistently targeting farming communities—where water scarcity was most acute—ISIS was able to bolster its ranks, growing into a formidable force of a thousand members.

Case Study 2: Piracy in Coastal Bangladesh

Timestamp: [03:10]

Moving from the Middle East to South Asia, Schwartzstein discusses the rise of piracy in coastal Bangladesh. He explains that many of these pirates are former farmers who have lost their lands to rising sea levels. With limited alternatives, these individuals turn to piracy, viewing it as a viable means of livelihood despite the inherent dangers.

"Many of these fishermen are ex-farmers who've lost their lands to rising seas and then felt they had no choice but to seek an alternative living out on the water, the dangers be damned." ([03:45])

Case Study 3: Farmer-Herder Clashes in Africa's Sahel

Timestamp: [04:30]

In Africa's Sahel region, Schwartzstein highlights the clashes between farmers and herders as a direct consequence of shrinking resources exacerbated by climate change. As temperatures rise, water and arable land become scarcer, intensifying competition between communities with competing agricultural and pastoral needs.

"Having more people with rival needs competing for shrinking resources across a poorly governed landscape that is less and less capable of providing them consistently." ([04:50])

These conflicts are a manifestation of the broader struggle for survival in a changing climate, where governance structures are unable to effectively manage the increased pressure on limited resources.

Case Study 4: Rising Violence in Western Countries (Greece)

Timestamp: [05:10]

Schwartzstein extends his analysis to Western nations, specifically citing research from Greece that correlates hotter summer temperatures with an increased risk of violence against women. This finding suggests that even in developed countries, climate-induced stress can lead to heightened social tensions and violence.

"According to research that colleagues and I are conducting in Greece, the hotter the summer temperatures, the greater the risk of women being attacked." ([05:10])

Analysis: Climate as a Catalyst, Not the Sole Cause

Schwartzstein clarifies that climate change is rarely the sole driver of violence. Instead, it interacts with existing societal issues such as inequality, corruption, and institutional weakness to amplify tensions. He outlines several generalizable principles:

Fueling Existing Conflicts: Climate change acts as "fuel on already smouldering fires," exacerbating pre-existing conflicts and divisions within societies.
Undermining Supports: It erodes the social and institutional supports that communities rely on during crises. For example, migration driven by climate stress can lead to the loss of community leaders who play crucial roles in maintaining peace.
Triggering the Breaking Point: In already strained communities, climate change can serve as the "bridge too far," pushing societies over the threshold into violence.

"It's depressing, isn't it. This is a planet that needs no more violence... but there is room for optimism." ([05:25])

Insights and Pathways to Optimism

Despite the bleak connections drawn between climate change and rising violence, Schwartzstein offers a message of hope. He emphasizes that mitigating climate change and investing in effective adaptation strategies can reduce the likelihood of violence.

Reducing Warming: Every effort to limit global warming translates to fewer communities exposed to climate-induced stressors that can trigger violence.
Adaptation Investments: Financial resources directed towards well-conceived adaptation measures equip communities with the tools needed to maintain stability in the face of climatic challenges.

"Ultimately, if you're not motivated by melting ice caps, I'm sure you'll be motivated by not being shot." ([05:30])

Schwartzstein underscores that the trajectory of climate-related violence is not predetermined. Collective action and thoughtful policy interventions can significantly alter these outcomes.

Conclusion

Peter Schwartzstein's TED Talk effectively bridges the gap between environmental science and social conflict studies, illuminating the profound ways in which climate change can influence societal stability. By presenting diverse case studies from different regions, he paints a comprehensive picture of the multifaceted impacts of rising global temperatures on violence. His insights call for urgent and coordinated efforts to address climate change not only to protect the environment but also to safeguard human societies from the threat of escalating violence.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

On ISIS recruitment strategies:

"Who are aware of the depth of distrust of government after so many years of conflict, recruiters even got adept at casting these conditions as a product of state action." ([02:15])
On piracy in Bangladesh:

"Many of these fishermen are ex-farmers who've lost their lands to rising seas and then felt they had no choice but to seek an alternative living out on the water, the dangers be damned." ([03:45])
On farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel:

"Having more people with rival needs competing for shrinking resources across a poorly governed landscape that is less and less capable of providing them consistently." ([04:50])
On rising violence in Greece:

"According to research that colleagues and I are conducting in Greece, the hotter the summer temperatures, the greater the risk of women being attacked." ([05:10])
On climate change as a catalyst for violence:

"It's depressing, isn't it. This is a planet that needs no more violence... but there is room for optimism." ([05:25])
On the potential for mitigation and adaptation:

"Ultimately, if you're not motivated by melting ice caps, I'm sure you'll be motivated by not being shot." ([05:30])

Peter Schwartzstein's exploration into the climate-violence nexus serves as a critical reminder of the interconnectedness of environmental and social issues. It calls policymakers, communities, and individuals to recognize and address the underlying factors that can lead to conflict, emphasizing that proactive measures can pave the way for a more stable and peaceful future.

Transcript

Verizon Representative (0:00)

Some things you wouldn't mind being stuck with, like a huge inheritance, but a phone that has to be plugged in just right so it charges is not one of those things. Switch to Verizon and we'll pay off your old phone up to $800 via prepaid MasterCard for a new one on us Just trade in any phone from our top brands with Select Unlimited plans $829.99 purchase with new smartphone line on select Unlimited plans. Minimum $90 per month with auto pay plus taxes and fees for 36 months required less $830 Trade in promo credit applied over 36 months Trade in Terms apply Payoff Phone requires smartphone purchase and port in with new smartphone line on select plan. Let's provide most recent bill showing payoff amount of eligible phone. Additional terms apply only Boost Mobile Boost.

Boost Mobile Representative (0:31)

Mobile will give you a free year of service Free year when you buy a new 5G phone.

Promotional Voice (0:35)

New 5G phone enough, but I'm your hype man. When you purchase an eligible device, you get $25 off every month for 12 months with credits totaling one year of free service taxes extra for the device and service plan. Online only.

Elise Hu (0:54)

You're listening to TED Talks Daily where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. TED Talk is a TED Fellows film adapted for podcasts just for our TED Talks Daily listeners. Ted's Fellowship supports a network of global innovators and we're so excited to share their work with you today. We'd like you to meet climate journalist Peter Schwartzstein. The climate crisis is fueling violence and empowering terrorists and oppressive leaders across the globe. Peter has been reporting on this frontier and connecting the dots between rising temperatures and rising violence.

Peter Schwartzstein (1:34)

When in late 2013, ISIS recruiters first targeted the Tharfar area of central Iraq, they arrived with a grimly effective plan in hand. They went for some of the most drought battered villagers. Conscious of how hard they would find it to resist the cash, they made some of the most forceful pitches to those whose small fields looked extra pitiful after consecutive years of weak rains and fiercer heat. Who aware of the depth of distrust of government after so many years of conflict, recruiters even got adept at casting these conditions as a product of state action. That drought. One villager remembered an ISIS member telling him that it was because of government scientists manipulation of the weather. Just another immiserating middle finger from authorities out to get them. ISIS varied its tactics elsewhere in Iraq and Syria. Sometimes they preyed on the most shabbily dressed men at livestock markets. On other occasions they doled out gifts of food and cash just as harvests failed. However, in focusing on farming communities, they were brutally consistent. The more water deprived the village, the more they visited it. The poorer the farmers, the more relentless their pressure. As I ultimately concluded after years of groundwork, ideas might have jump started the group, but it was climate related disorder that padded its ranks and helped turn it into the thousand strong force it soon fielded. I've spent more than a decade reporting on the links between climate and conflict and working out of umpteen countries and conflict zones. I've come to see that there are increasingly few forms of violence that don't have some sort of climate angle. Take piracy in coastal Bangladesh. These pirate crews are making a killing from kidnapping fishermen who are sailing in ever greater numbers into their lairs. Many of these fishermen are ex farmers who've lost their lands to rising seas and then felt they had no choice but to seek an alternative living out on the water, the dangers be damned. Then there are the clashes between farmers and herders across Africa's Sahel. Unsurprisingly, nothing good is coming from having more people with rival needs competing for shrinking resources across a poorly governed landscape that is less and less capable of providing them consistently. Even within western countries, certain forms of violence appear to be rising in line with temperature. According to research that colleagues and I are conducting in Greece, the hotter the summer temperatures, the greater the risk of women being attacked. The examples are just coming thicker and faster now. No one is claiming that this violence or any other is down to climate change alone. The relationship between the two is as inexact and as dependent on context as the impacts of climate change in general. And it's almost always intermingling with other drivers of instability, such as inequality or corruption. But we have a few often generalizable rules. For one, climate change throws fuel on already smouldering fires. If you have pre existing conflict, deep divisions across society and unresponsive institutions, then these stresses are extra liable to spark violence for another Climate change eats away at the supports that we as individuals, communities and nation states turn to at times of crisis. For example, having lost many of their leading citizens to migration, many communities now lack the wise old heads needed to keep the peace when tougher times come. Most importantly, climate change can just be a bridge too far, the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back for many communities that are already up to their eyeballs with trials of a different nature. It's depressing, isn't it. This is a planet that needs no more violence, and here's the potential for an awful lot more of it. But there is room for optimism. Every bit of stifled warming means fewer people exposed to dangerous, possibly violence triggering conditions. Every dollar dedicated to well conceived and effectively implemented adaptation means more people with the tools to keep that peace when those tougher times come. Ultimately, if you're not motivated by melting ice caps, I'm sure you'll be motivated by not being shot. As faint a hopeful note as it might initially sound, the grand reality is that most of this remains in our hands. Thank.