Economic Reality Check Podcast Notes

Market Performance (Jan-Apr 2025)

Bond Market Signals

Tariff Impact ("Tariffs 2.0")

International Response

Labor Market Decline

March: First net job loss (-75,000) since pandemic
Unemployment: 3.7% (Jan) → 4.2% (Mar)
Q1 tech layoffs: 82,000+ total
- Amazon: 10,000
- Microsoft: 8,000
- Meta: 7,000
Other sectors affected:
- Ford: 4,500 jobs cut (citing tariff-related material costs)
- JPMorgan Chase: 3,200 positions eliminated

Inflation Reversal

Consumer Response

Private Credit Markets & Tokenization

Private credit market: $1.5 trillion globally (25% YoY growth)
65% of private loans originating outside traditional banking regulations
Major players: Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Ares (collectively manage $700B)
Last 6 months: $43 billion of private credit tokenized on blockchain platforms
Daily trading volume of tokenized credit assets: $150M (Jan) → $1.2B (Mar)
72% of traditional investment bank executives "don't fully understand the mechanics"
SEC launching task force to examine these markets

Economic Outlook

Coming Next Week

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Economic Reality Check: The First 100 Days