← The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
Bonus Pod: WHY New Hampshire Matters...and Iowa...and South Carolina
00:26:20
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- [00:01]
A
Senator Cruz and I sat down and did a really, really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, moving into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron DeSantis dropping out. So what does history have to say about those states picking who's going to actually be the president? And what does it look like now moving forward with Donald Trump against Nikki Haley? Here is our deep dive, especially as you're getting ready to see what happens in New Hampshire, its verdict with Senator Ted Cruz.
- [00:30]
B
You know, I think it's interesting if you look at the history of the primaries, and I want to do a little bit of a deep dive into these early state primaries, the role that they have played. And so let's start with Iowa. The Iowa caucuses have played a very significant role. Let's start on the Democrat side and go back to 1976. 1976, the Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus. You know who it was?
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A
I don't.
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B
It was the governor of Georgia, an unknown candidate by the name of Jimmy Carter.
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A
Really.
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B
And the Iowa caucuses basically propelled Jimmy Carter to become President of the United States. And he went and he worked it. He worked it on the ground. There are 99 counties in Iowa. He went and did grassroots events after grassroots event. And Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal. Without that, he doesn't become president. You then look, 1984. So 1980, Carter's the incumbent, so the caucus doesn't matter. 84 is the next open presidential race. The winner of it was Walter Mondale, 49%. So Mondale, Jimmy Carter's VP, wins a big victory in the Iowa caucus, goes on to be the nominee and lose the general election. 1988, the winner of the Iowa caucus was Dick Gephardt. Now over Dukakis, Dick Gephardt got 31%. Paul Simon got 27%, Michael Dukakis got 22%.
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A
So it's tight.
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B
Now, remember, you know, Gephardt was from Missouri. Missouri's not that far from Iowa. So there was a Midwestern. Iowa has historically given some additional credence to Midwesterners. And Dukakis was from Massachusetts. So it was. It was a hard match. And so that was one where the winner did not win the nomination. 1992, who won the Democrat Iowa caucus in 92?
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A
I'm gonna guess. Was it Bill Clinton?
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B
No.
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A
Okay. Who was it?
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B
In fact, Bill Clinton got 3%.
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A
Really?
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B
He got crushed. The winner was Tom Harkin.
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A
Yeah.
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B
So Iowa didn't really matter because Harkin was a home state hero. And so it basically, Iowa was written off in 92. 2000, what Democrat won? Al Gore. He got 63%. He beat Bill Bradley by 37%. So in 2000, the Iowa caucus winner won the Democrat nomination. 2004, John Kerry won. He got 38% beat. John Edwards was 32%.
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A
Yeah. And that was a tight race.
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B
That was a tight race. And Kerry obviously went on to win the nomination, lose the general. 2008, the winner, Barack Obama.
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A
Yep.
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B
Barack Obama won with 38%. He beat John Edwards. Hillary was third in Iowa. 2016, Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, but with 50% to Bernie's 49. And it was a neck and neck photo finish.
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A
So I remember that night. That was an incredible night because no one had a clue what was going to happen. And it was a dog fight in that Democratic primary like we hadn't seen in modern political history.
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B
It was. And it was neck and neck. And then 2000, remember, the Iowa Democrat caucus was a mess.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And you had Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders both coming out with 26%. All right, Republican side. So conventional wisdom today is Iowa is more conservative and more evangelical. There's certainly a very large evangelical population in Iowa. What's interesting is that Iowa has not always played that role. And I'm going to tell you in a minute, we move to New Hampshire. New Hampshire has not always played the role of the more moderate state. And so over history, they've changed some. So 1976 Republican primary. Who won Iowa? 1976?
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A
I have no idea.
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B
Gerald Ford. But he beat Reagan 45 to 43.
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A
So it was close.
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B
It was. Remember, Ford is the incumbent president.
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A
Yeah.
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B
So this is when Reagan is firing the incumbent president and he comes incredibly close to beating him. But Ford, the more moderate choice, narrowly WINS Iowa in 76. All right, how about 1980? So Reagan has to be Reagan. So Reagan has almost beaten Ford four years earlier. So who wins? Who wins? I went 80.
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A
I would assume he would have just owned it there.
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B
You would assume, but you would assume incorrectly. The winner of Iowa in 1980 was George Herbert Walker Bush with 32%. Reagan got 30.
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A
So still tight.
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B
It was tight, but again. So that's two elections in a row, 76 and 80. The more moderate candidate beat the more conservative candidate in Iowa. All right, fast forward. 84 was Reagan unopposed. 88. The winner of Iowa, Bob Dole. Now, again, as a Kansas guy, the Midwestern Dole had an advantage, but Iowa was consequential. Do you Remember who took second in 88 in Iowa?
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A
Would it have been Bush no, who was it?
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B
That's why it was notable. Yeah, it was Pat Robertson.
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A
That's right. Yeah, the Christian conservative. That was the evangelical. He went hard in on evangelicals.
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B
So pat Robertson got 25%.
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A
What was the mantra then? I'm trying to remember. What was the exact words? Oh, it was something with Christian. And it was the way that he cast the vote that time. And it was a huge moving block. Do you remember that?
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B
The Christian Coalition.
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A
Christian Coalition. But it was under that. And there was something else he said, and it was like. And it stuck with people. I'll think of it in a second. But it was big.
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B
So Bush 41 was third at 19%, Jack Kemp with 11%. Pete Dupont was 7%. So that was 88. All right, fast forward to 96. The winner of Iowa 96 was Bob Dole, 26%. So he's a Midwesterner, but again, quite Moderate, but in second place. Do you remember who was second place?
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A
I have no idea.
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B
Pat Buchanan. Yeah, 23%. So almost beats Bob Dole in Iowa that year. And that became a big, big deal. All right, 2000. Who wins Iowa?
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A
2000 Iowa. I'm trying to think of an underdog because it seems like they're going with the under. Who was it?
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B
George W. Bush. Okay, big victory. Big victory with evangelicals. Remember, his dad had won it narrowly, had beaten Reagan narrowly. And George W. Bush had a lot more credibility with evangelicals than his dad did. And he spent a lot of time I was on that campaign. Winning Iowa was a big deal.
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A
Who came in second there that year?
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B
Steve Forbes.
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A
That's right.
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B
So Bush WINS Iowa with 41%, Steve Forbes 31%, Alan Keys, 14%, Gary Bower, 9%, John McCain, 5%. And John McCain basically wrote IWOFF. He said, I'm not competing there. And Orrin Hatch, 1%. 2008, next open seat. The winner of Iowa was Mike Huckabee. Yep, that's the 2008's where you started to see the sort of evangelical conservative winning. So Huckabee wins with 34%, Mitt Romney second with 25%, Fred Thompson at 13%, John Mc. John McCain, 13%, Ron Paul, 10%. And there was a whole libertarian thing. Ron Paul's 10% was significant. Rudy Giuliani with 4% and Duncan Hunter with 1%. 2012. So the winner in 2012 was Rick Santorum with 25%. But he basically tied with Mitt Romney at 25%. Remember, they didn't clear a winner.
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A
Yeah, that's right.
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B
They couldn't figure it out.
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A
And people were frustrated over that because it was like, are you cooking the books here? Why are you not saying someone won?
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B
Well, and that ended up hurting Santorum a lot because you couldn't claim victory.
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A
You want to claim victory.
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B
The benefit of winning Iowa, one of the benefits, typically, Iowa whittles down the field. It eliminates candidates. The sort of conventional wisdom is there are three passes out of Iowa, the top three come out, and typically the winner gets a bounce. Santorum did not get a bounce. And obviously Mitt Romney ended up going on to win the nomination. 2016, yours truly. I got 28% in Iowa, won the Iowa caucus. Donald Trump got 24%. Rubio got 23%. So Rubio almost beat Trump in Iowa that year. Ben Carson got 9%, Rand Paul, 5%, Jeb Bush, 3%, Carly Fiorina, 2%, and other 7% between them. And then you look at this year. Donald Trump, 51%, DeSantis, 21%. So Trump wins by 30 points. So we were saying, you know, traditionally today people think of New Hampshire more moderate. Well, that hasn't always been the case. So let's take the Democrat side, first of all. Democrat side, 1976, who wins New Hampshire?
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A
Who?
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B
Jimmy Carter. So Jimmy Carter wins Iowa, New Hampshire.
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A
Back to back to back.
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B
He's the nominee, he's the president. You win both, it's game over. Mo Udall was second with 23%. Jimmy Carter had 29%. 1980. Now, 1980 is interesting. Jimmy Carter is the incumbent president, but he gets a very strong primary from Ted Kennedy. Carter wins, but he wins New Hampshire with 48%. And Ted Kennedy gets 38%. Now, obviously, Kennedy's from Massachusetts to. So you have the neighboring effect, but that was. And Jerry Brown got 10% in that race.
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A
Wow.
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B
84. Who wins in 84? 1984, the Democrat primary.
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A
I have no idea.
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B
Gary Hart.
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A
Really?
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B
Senator from Colorado. He gets 39%. Walter Mondale, the VP who goes on to be the nominee, gets just 29%. All right, 1988, the winner is Michael Dukakis, the neighboring governor. He gets 36%. Dick Gephard, who just won Iowa, gets 20%. 1992. Okay, who. Who wins New Hampshire in 92?
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A
On the Democratic side, I'm trying to remember who all was in that race in 92, who was it?
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B
The winner is Paul Tsongas.
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A
Okay, I'm glad. I'm actually glad I didn't know that one.
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B
33%. Second place is Bill Clinton at 25%. And remember, look, Bill Clinton and Iowa had gotten 3%. He got crushed in Iowa.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And then after that, the whole Jennifer Flower story came out. So he's getting crushed on that, too. And Bill Clinton turned a second place finish in New Hampshire with 25% into saying the comeback kid. And that second place propelled him to the presidency. Year 2000, what Democrat wins? Al Gore. But Al Gore beats Bill Bradley 50% to 46%. So very close primary. Bill Bradley's from New Jersey, so you've got the Northeastern thing. But it was interesting how neck and neck and New Hampshire has been pretty good at picking the.
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A
There was also that eight year fatigue of Clinton. Right. And that actually hurt, I think, Al Gore at the end. Because if I remember correctly, Al Gore's campaign did not utilize Bill Clinton. They kind of separated.
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B
No, they hid him.
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A
Yeah. They did not want him around the campaign.
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B
You had Peach, you had Monica Lewinsky. I mean, they did ran away from Bill Clinton.
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A
Yeah.
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B
You look at 2004. The winner of New Hampshire, John Kerry with 38%. Second place, Howard Dean, the governor of neighboring Vermont.
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A
The famous 26%.
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B
2008. Who wins New Hampshire in 2008.
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A
In the Democratic Party, was it Obama or was it Clinton?
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B
Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton, 39%. Obama gets 36%. John Edwards, 17, Bill Richardson, 5. Dennis Kucinich, 1%. You go to 2016. The winner of New Hampshire was Bernie Sanders with 60%.
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A
I remember that. Feel the burn.
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B
Hillary Clinton, 38%. And then in 2020, the winner of New Hampshire again, Bernie Sanders, 26%. Pete Buttigieg, 24. Klobuchar, 20%, Elizabeth Warren, 9%, Joe Biden, 8%, Tom Steyer, 4%, Tulsi Gabbard, 3% and Andrew Yang, 3%.
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A
Go back to Joe Biden just for a second. What was that number again for him?
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B
8%.
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A
And he still became President of the United states of America.
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B
8%.
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A
Wow.
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B
And we'll get to that in a moment because there's a lot to say. All right, let's talk about Republicans in New Hampshire. All right, so we talked about 1976, that Gerald Ford narrowly wins Iowa. What do you think happens in New Hampshire?
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A
76. Gotta be Reagan.
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B
So again, Gerald Ford narrowly wins New Hampshire. Ford gets 50%. Reagan gets 49.
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A
Real. Okay, so he kept the momentum.
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B
All right, 1980. So 1980, remember who won on the. In Iowa? That was George Herbert Walker Bush. We get to New Hampshire.
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A
Did Reagan pull that one off?
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B
Reagan wins New Hampshire with 50% of the vote. George Herbert Walker Bush, 23%.
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A
So that's when it flipped and the campaign got interesting.
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B
And by the way, remember the sort of popular narrative today of New Hampshire's more moderate. When you look at that cycle, the more moderate candidate won Iowa and the more conservative candidate won New Hampshire. Now, that was also. Reagan had a singular breakout moment where he's in the middle of the debate, a debate that ultimately he had paid for. And the moderator, there was an argument about whether additional candidates who hadn't made the debate stage should be allowed to debate. And Reagan wanted them to. And the moderator tried to say no and said, turn off Reagan's microphone. And Reagan leans forward, famously, and says, Mr. Breen, I paid for this microphone. And it was seen at the time as a level of presidential leadership.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And he had, in fact, paid for the microphone. He was funding the whole debate. All right, Fast forward to 88. Who wins in 88?
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A
It's gotta be Bush.
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B
George Herbert Walker Bush, 38%, Bob Dole, 28%. And so new Hampshire, one of the interesting patterns about New Hampshire, it's a state that has tended to reward runner ups. So remember, New Hampshire gave it to Reagan over Bush 41, and then eight years later gives it to Bush 41 over Bob Dole. All right, you go from there to 1996. Who wins New Hampshire in 1996?
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A
96. New Hampshire has got to be. It's got a. Is it Bush?
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B
Nope.
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A
Who is it?
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B
Pat Buchanan. Okay, Buchanan WINS New Hampshire, 27%. Bob Dole, 26%. Lamar Alexander, 23%. Steve Forbes, 12%. Dick Luger, 5%. Alan Keys, 3%. Maury Taylor, 1%.
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A
Oh, 96. Got it.
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B
Okay, 2000. Who wins New Hampshire in 2000?
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A
So 2000, that's where I was. I thought you said, so Bush. I would have said bush then in 2000.
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B
Nope. 2000. Remember, I was on this campaign. I remember. Well, Bush had just won Iowa decisively. John McCain wins New Hampshire 49% to George W. Bush's 30%. Steve Forbes, 13%. Alan Key, 6%. Now, I gotta say that it was a 19 point victory, kicked our teeth in. It's the best thing that ever happened to the Bush 2000 campaign. Because the campaign in Austin at times would get overconfident and run entitled and be afraid to run hard. And after Iowa, all of those instincts were in full display. Getting our teeth kicked in in New Hampshire in 2000 made the campaign actually get out and fight. And it made it. Ultimately, ironically, losing New Hampshire helped propel Bush 43 on to win 2008, the winner of New Hampshire, John McCain. John McCain again, again, 37%. Mitt Romney, 32%. So he's in second. Huckabee, 11%. So Huckabee's one. Iowa gets crushed in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani, 8%. Ron Paul, 8%. Fred Thompson, 1%. 2012, the winner of New Hampshire, Mitt Romney. He was second four years earlier. And there's a pattern. New Hampshire tends to like people who were second in the previous cycle. Mitt Romney, 39%. Ron Paul, 23%. Jon Huntsman, 17. Rick Santorum, who had just won Iowa, 9%. Newt Gingrich, 9%. And then 2016, Donald Trump with a big victory, 35%. So he loses Iowa, goes on to win New Hampshire. New Hampshire played a pivotal part in electing Trump the first time. Kasich was second. I was third in New Hampshire. So Trump won a significant victory. Now, we see in modern times, New Hampshire tends not to like the winner of the Iowa caucuses.
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A
It's almost like they want to say, hold on, we started here and we're our own people, we're our own place.
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B
And look, part of the reason is as the Iowa caucuses has gotten more evangelical. New Hampshire is not a very evangelical state. There's just not a large evangelical population there. It's kind of flinty New Englander. There's a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant. Ron Paul has done well over the years. My supporters in New Hampshire had a lot of libertarians who were backing me in New Hampshire, but it's a very different state. And there's also a populist strain. And so understand it's not. There is one, the sort of faith and religiosity, the sort of evangelical question there is. Secondly, the ideological conservative versus moderate. But there's thirdly, the populist. And remember, New Hampshire's a state that Pat Buchanan won.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And Pat Buchanan in many ways. And then Ross Perot. There is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist. And so New Hampshire combines all of those. And the reason Trump in 16 did so well in New Hampshire as he tapped into that same Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot populist movement in New Hampshire. All right, third state, South Carolina, because the three, with some frequency, those three states pick the president. All right, Democrat side, 1988, the winner of the Democrat caucus, Jesse Jackson, 55%. Al Gore, 17%. Dukakis, 6%, Gephardt, 2%. So Dukakis goes on to win, but he gets crushed in South Carolina. Now, the primary vote in South Carolina on the Democrat side is very, very heavily African American.
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A
Yeah.
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B
So Jesse Jackson wins a big, big victory, but it doesn't decide the winner. That year, 1992, the winner of South Carolina, Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton with 63%. Paul Tsongas, who had just won New Hampshire, gets 18%. Tom Harkins, 7%, Jerry Brown, 6%. So Bill Clinton's second place in New Hampshire, the comeback kid, sets him up for a stunning victory in South Carolina that ends up giving him the nomination and ultimately electing him president. 2000, Al Gore with 92%. So Gore in the Southern, Bill Bradley gets 2%. So it's just a Southern thing. 2004. Who won South Carolina in 2004 in the Democrat primary?
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A
I have no idea. Who was it?
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B
John Edwards.
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A
Oh, that's. Yeah, that's right.
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B
He was from North Carolina. He was a neighbor. 46%. John Kerry, 30%. Al Sharpton, 10%. Wesley Clark, 7%. Howard Dean, 5%, Joe Lieberman, 2%.
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A
I remember that change. Super Tuesday. And there was a lot of questions about Super Tuesday. Who was going to do well after Edwards did so well.
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B
Yeah. 2008, the winner of South Carolina, Barack Obama.
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A
Yeah.
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B
So for the Democrats, Obama wins Iowa, South Carolina, Hillary wins New Hampshire. Obama ends up winning 2016. Who wins South Carolina?
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A
Who was it?
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B
Hillary Clinton was 73%. Bernie Sanders, just 26%. So Bernie did great. Had won New Hampshire, was in a dominant position. South Carolina, boom.
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A
Welcome to reality. Right?
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B
2020, the winner of South Carolina, who was it? Joe Biden, 48%, Bernie Sanders, 20%.
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A
Interesting.
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B
So understand, in 2020, Bernie had won Iowa and New Hampshire.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And then South Carolina came in, and the African American vote rallied. Bernie has had trouble getting the African American vote historically. And for the Democrats, South Carolina, they circled the wagons and elected Joe Biden. South Carolina's got a long history of it. All right, how about 1980, Republican side?
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A
Who was it? Was it Reagan?
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B
Who wins South Carolina?
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A
Reagan.
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B
Reagan.
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A
Okay.
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B
Generally speaking, if you win two of the first three, you're the guy. You're gonna be the nominee. So Reagan that cycle in 1980, lost Iowa, but then won New Hampshire And South Carolina. 1988. Who wins South Carolina?
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A
88 was a Bush.
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B
Bush, 41 with 49%. And by the way, 80. Reagan wins South Carolina, 55%. John Connolly, 30%, George Herbert Walker Bush, 15%.
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A
So he had a huge letdown that year.
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B
Yeah. Go back to 88 where Bush 41 is Reagan's VP. He wins with 49% Bob Dole 21% Pat Robertson 19% Jack Kemp, 11. So again, South Carolina pivotally elects 41 as president or is pivotal in that. All right, 96 who wins the Republican primary?
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A
96. Who was it?
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B
Bob Dole 45% Pat Buchanan 29% Steve Forbes 13% Lamar Alexander 10% Alan Keys, 2% 2000. Who wins South Carolina?
- [24:09]
A
Had to be bush.
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B
George W. Bush 53% John McGahn, 42% Alan Keys, 5%. So Bush wins Iowa, this is in 2000, gets crushed in New Hampshire and comes back and wins South Carolina, goes on to win the nomination, get elected president. There is often a connection between Iowa and South Carolina. They are more conservative, generally speaking. They are more evangelical, generally speaking, although Iowa is a lot more evangelical than the South Carolina. But there are similarities between the two. 2008, the winner of South Carolina, who was it? John McCain 33% Huckabee 30%. So.
- [24:51]
A
So Huckabee was still hanging around.
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B
Remember, Huckabee had won Iowa.
- [24:55]
A
Yeah.
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B
Loses New Hampshire and then South Carolina decides it 33% to 30%. That was neck and neck. And by the way, third place was Fred Thompson at 16%.
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A
And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly. He spent a lot of time there and a lot of money.
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B
He did. Mitt Romney 15% Ron Paul 4% Rudy Giuliani 2%. 2012 Newt Gingrich at 40%. He wins. Mitt Romney at 28% Santorum 17% Ron Paul 13. So Santorum had won Iowa, didn't get the bounce, and Gingrich comes along and steals South Carolina, makes a hard push. But then Romney ultimately wins later. So that was that was the year where it didn't play according to type was 2012, 2016. Trump wins South Carolina 33% and Rubio and I basically tie. He takes 22%. I take 22%. He beats me by like 1700 votes. It was less than 2000 votes.
- [25:57]
A
I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside Politics on what happens in these primary states. Don't forget Senator Cruz and I will be back with you Wednesday morning with all of our reaction to what happened in the primary in New Hampshire. Plus, make sure you hit that subscribe or auto download button wherever you're listening to this podcast. And the senator and I will see you back here tomorrow morning.