Summary of "Bonus Pod: WHY New Hampshire Matters...and Iowa...and South Carolina"
The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
Release Date: January 23, 2024

In this bonus episode of The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson, host Ben Ferguson engages in a comprehensive discussion with Senator Cruz about the pivotal roles that Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play in the U.S. presidential primary process. The conversation delves into historical precedents, the evolution of these states' influences, and current dynamics, especially in the context of Donald Trump’s candidacy against Nikki Haley. Below is a detailed summary capturing the key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

1. Introduction to the Primary States

Ben Ferguson (B) opens the episode by setting the stage for an in-depth exploration of the three crucial primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He emphasizes the importance of understanding historical outcomes to predict future electoral trends.

B [00:01]: "Senator Cruz and I sat down and did a really, really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, moving into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron DeSantis dropping out."

2. The Historical Significance of the Iowa Caucus

Ferguson and Cruz delve into the history of the Iowa caucuses, highlighting their impact on both Democratic and Republican primaries.

Democratic Iowa Caucus History

• 1976: Jimmy Carter, then-Governor of Georgia, won the Iowa caucus, a victory that significantly propelled him to the presidency.

  B [00:53]: "Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal. Without that, he doesn't become president."

• 1984 & 1988: Walter Mondale and Dick Gephardt won their respective caucuses but ultimately did not secure the Democratic nomination in both years.

• 1992: Tom Harkin’s unexpected win, overshadowing Bill Clinton, led to Iowa being largely written off for Democrats that cycle.

• 2000-2016: Corking the wins by Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the tight race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in 2016 showcases Iowa's fluctuating influence.

Republican Iowa Caucus History

• 1976-1980: Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush won early caucuses, often reflecting the state's more moderate Republican trends during these years.

• 1988-2008: Winners like Bob Dole and George W. Bush highlighted Iowa's shifting dynamics, with significant evangelical influence emerging by 2008 when Mike Huckabee won.

• 2012-2024: The trend shows Iowa favoring candidates like Rick Santorum and Donald Trump, indicating a move towards more populist and conservative preferences.

3. New Hampshire Primary: A Historical Overview

The New Hampshire primary has consistently been a bellwether, especially for the Democratic and Republican parties.

Democratic New Hampshire Primary History

• 1976-1980: Jimmy Carter’s back-to-back victories in Iowa and New Hampshire secured his path to the presidency.

• 1992: Bill Clinton’s second-place finish in New Hampshire set the stage for his eventual presidential victory despite a poor showing in Iowa.

• 2008-2020: Winners like Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden illustrate New Hampshire's role in shaping the Democratic nomination, often serving as a comeback platform for candidates lagging in other states.

Republican New Hampshire Primary History

• 1976-1980: Gerald Ford’s narrow victories highlighted New Hampshire's early significance but also its competitive nature.

• 1988-2008: Candidates like George H.W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney benefited from strong showings in New Hampshire, often reflecting or influencing their national campaigns.

• 2016-2020: Donald Trump's substantial win in 2016 underscored New Hampshire's evolving preferences, favoring populist and libertarian-leaning candidates.

A [25:13]: "I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside Politics on what happens in these primary states."

4. South Carolina's Role in the Primary Process

South Carolina serves as a decisive state, especially within the Democratic Party, often amplifying African American voter influence.

Democratic South Carolina Primary History

• 1988-1992: Jesse Jackson's dominance in 1988 and Bill Clinton’s victory in 1992 highlighted the state's diverse electorate.

• 2000-2020: Al Gore's overwhelming win in 2000 and Barack Obama’s success in 2008 demonstrate South Carolina's ability to consolidate support for frontrunner candidates. The 2020 primary saw Joe Biden leveraging African American support to secure the nomination.

Republican South Carolina Primary History

• 1980-2008: Figures like Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush benefited from strong performances, reinforcing South Carolina's alignment with more conservative and evangelical candidates.

• 2012-2020: The state's shift towards supporting candidates like Newt Gingrich and Donald Trump showcases its alignment with populist and conservative movements.

B [19:34]: "Pat Buchanan in many ways. And then Ross Perot. There is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist."

5. Patterns and Trends Across the Three States

Ferguson and Cruz identify several patterns:

• Iowa: Traditionally pivotal but increasingly leaning towards evangelical and conservative candidates in recent years.

• New Hampshire: Maintains a mix of libertarian and populist tendencies, often rewarding runner-ups or candidates who performed strongly in previous primaries.

• South Carolina: Crucial for Democratic African American voters and Republican evangelical support, acting as a catalyst for momentum towards the nomination.

6. Current Landscape: Trump vs. Haley

The discussion highlights the current primary battle between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, reflecting on historical patterns to forecast potential outcomes.

B [07:40]: "Bush WINS Iowa with 41%, Steve Forbes 31%, Alan Keys, 14%, Gary Bower, 9%, John McCain, 5%."

B [24:52]: "New Hampshire's a state that Pat Buchanan won. And Pat Buchanan in many ways. And then Ross Perot. There is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist."

7. Insights and Conclusions

Ferguson and Cruz conclude that understanding the historical nuances of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina is essential for predicting and strategizing in presidential primaries. They emphasize that while Iowa initiates the race, New Hampshire and South Carolina serve as pivotal states that can make or break a campaign’s momentum. The evolving political landscape, characterized by shifts towards populism and conservatism, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, underscores the need for candidates to adapt their strategies to resonate with these states' unique electorates.

B [18:43]: "It's not a very evangelical state there. There's just not a large evangelical population there. It's kind of flinty New Englander. There's a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant."

A [25:07]: "And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly. He spent a lot of time there and a lot of money."

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a thorough examination of how Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have historically influenced the U.S. presidential primaries. By analyzing past election outcomes, Ferguson and Cruz offer valuable insights into the strategic importance of these states in shaping political narratives and determining electoral success. For listeners keen on understanding the intricacies of the primary process and its impact on the broader political landscape, this discussion serves as an informative resource.

Notable Quotes:

• B [00:53]: "Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal. Without that, he doesn't become president."

• B [19:34]: "Pat Buchanan in many ways. And then Ross Perot. There is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist."

• B [18:43]: "It's not a very evangelical state there. There's just not a large evangelical population there. It's kind of flinty New Englander. There's a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant."

• A [25:07]: "And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly. He spent a lot of time there and a lot of money."

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