Holiday Spending to Break $1 Trillion as Democrats Push Economic Narrative

Summary

Podcast Summary: The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

Episode: Holiday Spending to Break $1 Trillion as Democrats Push Economic Narrative
Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Ben Ferguson
Network: Premiere Networks

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Overview

This episode of The 47 Morning Update spotlights the American holiday economy in 2025, focusing on the resurgence in affordability, record-breaking holiday spending, and the differing narratives pushed by Democrats and Republicans. Ben Ferguson discusses improving gas prices, declines in Thanksgiving meal costs, and offers a critical perspective on Democratic economic messaging under the Trump administration. The episode also features a segment with Fox Business’ Jerry Willis analyzing consumer behavior and expectations for the season.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Political Narrative of "Affordability"

• Affordability as a Buzzword: Ferguson asserts that Democrats are obsessing over affordability now, despite downplaying inflation during the Biden presidency (04:02).
• Critique of Democrats: "Instead, they lied to you and said that there was no such thing as inflation, that it was transitory and that things were, quote, getting better..." — Ben Ferguson [04:17]
• Ferguson suggests that Democrats are trying to blame President Trump for ongoing economic woes, despite improvements.

2. Gas Prices: Conservative vs. Liberal States

• Falling Gas Prices: National average gas price for Thanksgiving set at $3.02/gallon—the lowest since the pandemic years [05:19].
• Regional Contrasts: Ferguson presents a state-by-state breakdown, emphasizing that:
  • Conservative states (e.g., Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana) feature the lowest prices, below $2.70/gallon.
  • Liberal states (e.g., California, Washington) have much higher prices due to “overregulation and taxation.”
  • “Where there are conservative states, there are lower prices. And when you have the most radical liberals, where are their prices? Almost double...” — Ben Ferguson [07:40]
• Underlying Reason: Lower prices attributed to Trump administration’s energy policies and deregulation.

3. Record Holiday Spending

• Holiday Shopping Expectations: U.S. holiday spending projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, despite recessionary fears and mixed consumer sentiment.
• Consumer Surveys:
  • Some surveys (PwC, Deloitte) show intentions to cut back, especially among Gen Z (down 23%).
  • National Retail Federation predicts a 2.9–3.4% increase in sales.

Notable Clip – Fox Business' Jerry Willis (12:13–13:55)

• "It's interesting, everybody asking just how generous American consumers will be this holiday season... The National Retail Federation sees sales rising 2.9 to 3.4%, breaking through the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever." — Jerry Willis [12:13]
• Advice for Shoppers: Potential for price hikes due to removal of certain import tariffs; best prices on electronics may be found after January 5.
• Shipping Recommendation: Send gifts by December 17 for timely delivery.

4. Thanksgiving Meal Costs Drop

• Lowest Costs in Four Years: The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 is $55.18—a 5% drop from the previous year and the lowest since 2021 (13:55–15:00).
• Historical Context:
  • Prices surged during Biden years: up 24% between 2021–2024, with significant spikes in turkey and meal ingredients.
  • Current Decline: “A 16-pound turkey will cost an average of $21.50. That is down 16% from Joe Biden’s final year in office.” — Ben Ferguson [15:29]
• Argument: These cost reductions are evidence of economic improvement under President Trump’s policies.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ben Ferguson:

  • “Democrats are trying to say [affordability] is terrible. And actually it's running yet again in the right direction.” [13:55]
  • “Is the economy getting better? Yes. Is pricing getting better for you? Yes. And is this something we should all be excited about? You better believe it.” [15:39]

• Jerry Willis (Fox Business):

  • “Gen Z, the most cautious, say they plan to spend 23% less than last year.” [12:30]
  • “National Retail Federation sees sales rising... breaking through the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever.” [12:44]
  • “You need to buy now because we don't know what's going to happen. Tariffs could go up at any point, in which case those prices will get passed on.” [13:12]

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Important Timestamps

• 03:36–04:40: Introduction of core theme; Ben critiques the Democrats’ economic narrative
• 05:09–08:39: Deep dive into gas prices—state-by-state contrasts & discussion of the Trump administration’s energy policy
• 12:13–13:55: Fox Business analysis of holiday shopping patterns with Jerry Willis
• 13:55–15:40: Discussion on declining Thanksgiving meal costs and broader implications for economic well-being

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

Ben Ferguson's tone is assertively pro-Trump, critical of Democratic leadership, and focused on contrasting economic outcomes between ideologically different states. He intertwines economic data with political commentary and encourages listeners to accept the idea that things are improving under current administration policies, despite Democratic skepticism.

For listeners:
This episode offers a clear, right-leaning perspective on Thanksgiving 2025’s economic landscape, using inflation statistics, gas price charts, and spending forecasts to argue for a positive outlook. The discussion with Jerry Willis provides a practical angle on consumer habits for the holidays.

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Transcript

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[Ben Ferguson]

You're listening to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson. Good Black Friday. So nice to have you with us on the 47 Morning Update. And we've got a big economic story for you. And it deals with affordability and major changes that have come under the Trump administration in less than a year of being in office. So why are the Democrats all about doom and gloom and what are the facts actually saying about prices, especially as so many are spending big bucks today. And we've got the good news for you. But first, did you see that gold just hit an all time new high of over $4,000 an ounce. And if you hear that, you're like, are you kidding me? And oh, you're thinking, gosh, I missed my opportunity. Well, I don't know if you missed your opportunity, but my friends at Kurt Elliott Precious Metals, they can answer that question for you. You also may not be paying attention to the incredible gains with silver that are happening right now as well. 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No overpriced collectibles, no gimmicks. That means you get more gold or silver for your money at fair value when it's time for you to sell. So if you're ready to find out if gold and silver is right for you and your portfolio, then call them and get a plan. You can Visit [e-mail] Ben that's K-E P M.com Ben or 720-605-3900 at 720-605-3900 Kirk Elliott, precious metals [e-mail] it's the 47 Morning Update and it starts right now. Story number one, there's a word that a may have heard. Affordability. It is the obsession word of the Democratic Party right now, something they never mentioned when Joe Biden was president of the United States of America. Instead, they lied to you and said that there was no such thing as inflation, that it was transitory and that things were, quote, getting better and gas prices really weren't that bad. Well, now they're wanting Americans to believe that the economy is a disaster and they're trying to blame Donald Trump for everything. So let's talk about the facts of where we were a year ago compared to now, specifically around Black Friday and holiday travel. For Thanksgiving travelers, there's a bit of good news. Let me say that again, a bit of good news for you at the pump. Gas prices are holding steady, a far cry from the sticker shock of recent years. Gas Buddy is now forecasting a national average $3 and 2 cents per gallon over the holiday, matching, yes, a low price that we needed desperately to help Americans. And we also now know that there's other things that are really exciting. Thanksgiving gas prices. This is the lowest we've had since the pandemic when the national average hit $3.39 a gallon in 2021 and $3.56 a gallon in 2022. Gas prices are coming down and for many drivers, the national stability is showing up Locally as well. Nearly 30 states now boast average prices of under $3 a gallon, from Colorado to New Hampshire to Georgia. According to AAA. Oklahoma tops the list with an average of just $2.50 a gallon. That is a welcome number on many gas station signs for consumers. Now, at the other end of the spectrum, where liberals are in charge, you've still got pain at the pump with overregulation and taxation. Let me give you an example of that. California is now topping the list as the most expensive state when it comes to buying a gallon of gasoline. When you look at Oklahoma, a conservative state with not a lot of regulation to make prices skyrocket in certain blends they demand to protect the environment. Right, because of global warming. Well, compare it to what they're paying in California. It is $4.63 per gallon, compared to just 250 a gallon in Oklahoma. Hawaii is actually cheaper, and that's not something you hear about very often, as Hawaii is one of the most expensive places to just get gasoline, too. It is now less expensive to buy a gallon of gas in Hawaii than it is with all the regulations on gasoline in California. Hawaii at $4.47 a gallon, compared to 463 in California. Washington state, another liberal bastion of, well, socialism. They now are at $4.18 a gallon. And rounding out the top 10 are Nevada at 384 a gallon, Alaska at 375 a gallon, Arizona at 337 a gallon, and three states tied at 329. Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Illinois. Meanwhile, the most affordable gas can be found in conservative states. Oklahoma at $2.57 a gallon, Mississippi at $2.61 a gallon, and Louisiana at $2.65 a gallon. Those states then follow other conservative states. Tennessee at 266 a gallon, Arkansas at 267 a gallon, Texas at 270 a gallon, Kansas at 271, Missouri at 273, Alabama at 273, and Kentucky at 274 a gallon, you notice the trend here. Where there are conservative states, there are lower prices. And when you have the most radical liberals, where what are their prices? Almost double what is being paid in conservative states. AAA anticipates that nearly 82 million Americans will journey at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday, 1.6 million more than last year, marking a record high for Thanksgiving travel. Now the revelation comes. The Trump administration is pushing ahead on energy dominance independence. It's a key pillar of President Donald Trump's economic and national security agenda. And while Thanksgiving marks the year's busiest travel stretch, it isn't the only time drivers have caught a break. This Labor Day, motorists saw the lowest gas prices in a half a decade. So this is not just one blip on the map. It's a clear trend because of the president of the United States of America putting Americans first. Which also brings us to what's about to happen with U. S holiday spending. How do Americans actually feel about the economy and where we are right now? U. S. Holiday spending, we're now being told, is expected to top $1 trillion for the first time ever. I want you to take a listen to what they had to say about the holidays and shopping patterns this year on Fox Business Channel. Despite concerns about the economy, people are still looking to spend. Jerry Willis has the numbers. She joins us now. Hey, Jerry.

[Jerry Willis]

Yeah, you know, it's interesting, everybody asking just how generous American consumers will be this holiday season. It's a question still under debate. Both pricewaterhouse and Deloitte surveys of consumers showing Americans tightening their purse strings with declines of anywhere from 5 to 10%. Gen Z, the most cautious, saying they plan to spend 23% less than last year. But the National Retail Federation sees sales rising 2.9 to 3.4%, breaking through the 1 trillion mark for the first time ever. Now, meanwhile, the big discounters like Walmart TJ Maxx showing strong early results. But what can consumers expect as they hit the malls and fire up their web browsers this holiday season? One retail consultant says potential price hikes loom with the elimination of the de minimis tariff, which allowed goods under a thousand from offshore to enter the US Duty free. She says it could cause sticker shock for some consumers. Listen, you need to buy now because we don't know what's going to happen. Tariffs could go up at any point, in which case those prices will get passed on. The price increase will immediately get passed on to the consumer. Now, travel snafus could also make it difficult to get your presence delivered on time. So Herzog is also recommending shipping presents early, by December 17th at the least. Plus, the big the best prices that is on big ticket electronics will be available after the holiday season January 5th and later. Bottom line, if you want to save money this holiday season, make a list, stick to it and start early.

[Ben Ferguson]

Now this is also happening as we're seeing something else that's going to make you very happy and that is Thanksgiving meal costs have declined to the lowest level in four years. Another example of affordability, the Democrats are trying to say, is terrible. And actually it's running yet again in the right direction. The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal down sharply, falling to the lowest price since 2021, according to the American Farm Bureau. The Farm Bureau's 40th annual survey found that a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost $55.18. That is down 5% from last year. Since 1986, volunteers across all 50 states in Puerto Rico have been organized by the American Farm Bureau to record local prices for turkey, cube stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk. Prices soared during the presidency of Joe Biden. With inflation rising to the worst pace in 40 years. The price of a classic Thanksgiving meal surged 14% in 2021 alone, Biden's first year in office then hitting a record high of 53.31. Despite the administration's insistence that the price increases were transitory or the result of a temporary supply shock, the following year, what came to be called by inflation was even worse. The price of a Thanksgiving meal jumped another 20% to a skyrocketing 6,405. By Biden's final Thanksgiving, the price of a traditional family holiday meal was 24% higher than it was when he took office. Yes, almost a 25% increase. This year's decline was driven by a sharp fall in the price of turkey. A 16 pound turkey will cost an average of 2150. That is down 16% from Joe Biden's final year in office. So is the economy getting better? Yes. Is pricing getting better for you? Yes. And is this something we should all be excited about? You better believe it. Thank you for listening to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever you're listening to this podcast right now. And for more in depth news, also subscribe to the Ben Ferguson Podcast and we will see you back here tomorrow.

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