Ben Ferguson (20:22)
Here's the third principle I want to say. There are some people arguing for eliminating the debt ceiling permanently, altogether, just getting rid of the debt ceiling, never again having to worry about it. And by the way, one of the plans that's discussed is, well, the Democrats have always wanted to eliminate the debt ceiling. So let's just do that. And that's how we get out of this. I pray that is not the end game here. Eliminating the debt ceiling would be the single worst step we could possibly take. If you care about spending or deficits or debt. Now why is that? Okay, let's do a little history. Historically, the debt ceiling has been the single greatest leverage Republicans have had to force spending restraint. Now this has only happened and it's only worked against the opposing party. So one of the challenges with the debt ceiling is when your own party is in power. Trump wants the debt ceiling raised. Every president wants the debt ceiling raised. Republicans, as a general matter, are not willing to exert massive leverage on their own party's president and for spending restraint. So when Trump was president the first time, the debt ceiling was not leverage against Trump because Republicans didn't want to do that. I understand that. But when Democrats are in the White House, Republicans, the debt ceiling is the single most effective lever point that has been used against Democrats to force spending restraints. And I want to point to a couple of examples. Number one, Graham Rudman Hollings. Graham Rudman Hollings, passed decades ago, remains the single most effective spending restraint that has ever been passed into law. Phil Graham, former senator from Texas, was the lead author. How did that get passed? It got passed because of the debt ceiling. Got passed because Republicans forced it and said, we won't raise the debt ceiling unless you pass meaningful structural reform to rein in spending. And Graham Hollings was in effect for many years and had a very positive effect, reining in the growth of spending. I'll point to a second example, 2010, the Budget Control Act. 2010, Barack Obama was president and Republicans used the debt ceiling to force Barack Obama to agree to something called the Budget Control Act. The Budget Control act again significantly constrained the growth of federal spending. It was only through the debt ceiling. We got that. Now the argument. And by the way, today we Republican senators, we all had lunch. J.D. vance came to express his views to the lunch. There were a number of Republicans saying, well, we should just get rid of the debt ceiling now. And I'll tell you, I expressed my views. If we get rid of the debt ceiling, it would be utterly disastrous. If you care remotely about government spending, eliminate the debt ceiling would be a massive mistake. And I just pointed out, if we get rid of the debt ceiling, there will come another Democrat president. I get the urge to live in the moment of we're in charge. Woohah. But unfortunately, there will come another time when the American people elect a Democrat. And for anyone who has an attention span beyond 12 seconds, you recognize throughout history that politics has been a pendulum and it goes from one party to the other. So we will get another Democrat president. And I told my colleagues Today at lunch I said, all right, you get rid of the debt ceiling, get ready for President Elizabeth Warren, and if you don't like a $36 trillion debt, get ready for a $50 trillion debt. Because the Democrats, Elizabeth Warren wants to eliminate the debt ceiling. AOC wants to eliminate the debt ceiling. Chuck Schumer wants to eliminate the debt ceiling because they want to spend us into oblivion. So I will say one potential way out of this is to cut an absolute deal with the Democrats that gets rid of the debt ceiling forever. We will have given away what history has proven. And by the way, I'll go back, I'll go back to about a decade. I don't have the most recent stats, but about a decade ago it was the case that of the previous 51 times Congress had raised the debt ceiling, 28 of those times that it attached meaningful conditions to the debt ceiling. So it's leverage. Remember, my principle number two is used spending for leverage. This is related. On principle number three, the debt ceiling is about getting leverage for concessions. Now here's the problem I mentioned to you. There are a bunch of Republicans in the House who say they'll never vote for continued resolution. There are also a bunch of Republicans in the House who say they will never, ever, ever vote to raise the debt ceiling. I gotta tell you, I don't think that makes any sense. I've never said it and I consider myself very much a fiscal conservative. But 40% of every dollar the federal government spends is borrowed. Unless you're prepared to slash the federal government budget by 40% tomorrow. And by the way, there is literally no serious person on planet Earth who is prepared to do that and is able to do that. Even if you would with a magic wand do that, there's no way to make that happen. Unless you're prepared to do that, the debt ceiling will have to be raised. My position has always been I'm willing to vote to raise the debt ceiling if we are getting concessions that are reigning in the out of control spending that's bankrupting our country. However, in the House there are a bunch of Republicans who simply say, I will never, ever, ever vote to raise the debt ceiling. No matter what. It doesn't matter what we get. My answer is no. That is a real problem. Let me make one final principle. Mike Johnson, who's the speaker of the House. There are a bunch of voices on tv, a bunch of voices on talk radio, a bunch of voices on Twitter saying, get rid of Mike Johnson, throw him overboard. I'm going to tell you something. That I believe is an absolute fact. Mike Johnson is the single most conservative speaker of the House that will ever be speaker of the House in our lifetime. He is undoubtedly the most conservative speaker of the House we have ever had in our lifetime. It's not even close. It's not even. It's not even arguable. And I'm here to tell you, listen, Mike Johnson may lose his job over this. He has a very perilous. It's a tiny majority in the House. You got a bunch of House members saying, I'm going to vote against him. I will tell you this. If Mike Johnson is toppled as speaker of the House, and he might be. Kevin McCarthy was. Mike Johnson is orders of magnitude more conservative than Kevin McCarthy. It's not even close. If Mike Johnson is toppled as speaker of the House, we will end up with a Speaker of the House who is much, much more liberal than Mike Johnson. I think that is indisputable. I know Mike well. He's a good man. He's a decent man. He's. He's a strong Christian. He is a man of humility. And everyone on Twitter is saying, but he gave the Democrats concessions. I want to go back to the first principle. I said count to two. 18. If Mike Johnson could draft a bill that makes it out of the House with 218 Republicans, he would. I don't believe that is possible. There's certainly nothing to indicate it is possible right now. If you cannot get to 218 with Republicans because a bunch of Republicans say, I will not vote for anything you propose, no matter what, then Mike Johnson is forced to get Democrat votes. To get Democrat votes, he must give Democrats things they want. And so I don't know what will happen. I think there's a reasonable chance somehow out of this we get some very short term cr. A week or two or three, and then in mid January, we're back in the middle of this mess again. That's possible. I'll tell you in the Senate. We're all sitting there. We have no idea what's going to happen. Um, I got to tell you, I feel. I feel for Mike Johnson. I think he is trying with all his might. And I would just encourage you to focus on. Listen, I think we need people to be serious about changing the direction of the battleship of government. And to do so, you actually need a strategy that can get the votes to prevail. If you can't get the votes, it's easy to tweet about it. I mean, that's, that's, that's from the cheap seats, 38 Republicans voted no, 174 is not 218. And and so I don't know what the result is here. I think it is chaotic. We will get through this one way or another. But the fundamental structural dynamics and it's one of the things look, going forward into the next year, I'm really optimistic about the Trump presidency. I'm really optimistic about a Republican Senate and House. But I'll tell you, the Senate's gonna be a lot easier. We've got 53 Republicans coming in next year. By the way, we still have a Democrat Senate today. So I haven't even this whole discussion has ignored the fact that you gotta get Chuck Schumer and the Democrats to agree with whatever you do, which is even harder. But next year we'll have 53 Republicans in the Senate. 53 is a big enough majority that we can lose three votes and still get things done. So I think the Senate will be able to pass pretty good legislation. Not fantastic, not wonderful, but surprisingly good. The House worries me enormously next year because the majority is so excruciatingly small that if you lose a handful of votes, you cannot get to 218. And so I think Mike Johnson is trying to work miracles right now. But the single hardest challenge of the next two years in terms of passing good legislation is going to be getting to 218 in the house. And I don't know what the answer is to that.