← The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
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- [00:01]
Ben Ferguson
Welcome. It is Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you. And I can't believe it. We are six weeks out until election day. So it's a good time to take a pause look at this election. What are going to be the big issues and where we are right now. Senator, I can't believe it. Six weeks is not that long.
- [00:22]
Senator Ted Cruz
As of tomorrow, six weeks from tomorrow will be election day and it'll all be over, God willing, unless it ends up in the Democrats have their way, it becomes election month. But we will finally be there. November 5th is six weeks and one day away. And what we're going to do on this podcast is lay out number one, the presidential what is it going to come down to? And number two, we're going to make a run across the Senate map and the potential pickup states for Republicans and give you a state of the race right now, six weeks out. We're going to do all of that, give you an overview of this final six week stretch, what to expect heading into election day.
- [01:04]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, it's crazy. We are here. The 2024 election, as we just mentioned, is upon us. And the war on masculinity in America today is more blatant than ever before. And that's why I want you to know about my friends at Chalk. You may not realize this, but there is a problem and it is men's testosterone levels are off a cliff, historically at an all time low. And isn't that exactly what the liberal elites want, a weak and docile underclass? Well, thankfully the patriots at Chalk Choq are here to help real American men take back the right to proudly maximize their masculinity by boosting your testosterone levels up to 20% over 90 days. Now, I've been taking the male vitality stack for over a year now and I can tell you it has helped me get back in shape. I had no idea how much of a difference it can make when it comes to getting my strength back and my focus and my energy. So if you're sick and tired of sitting on the couch or sick and tired of wanting to work out and you just don't have the energy to do it, then you need to check out Chalk. It's manufactured right here in the US Of A. Chalk's natural herbal supplements are clinically proven to have game changing effects on your energy, your focus, your mood. So maximize your masculinity today@chalk choq.com use the code BEN for a massive discount on any subscription for life. Look, in the last year I've lost 70 pounds. Go online. Check it out. Choq.com the code, Ben, for lifetime savings on any subscription. Limited time offer. Subscriptions are cancelable at any time. So let's talk about the core number one issue, Senator, that you think is going to be it on election day. I still think it's overwhelming the economy. I think Kamala Harris, that is still her gonna be her weakness. And going for price controls, I think it's still gonna be a disaster for her to try to sell that to the American people.
- [02:59]
Senator Ted Cruz
So I think there are three issues that are front and center. Number one, the economy. And really, inflation is the most important piece of the economy. Number two is illegal immigration and the chaos at our southern border. And number three is crime. And if you look state by state, those three issues are consistently polling at the top. The economy and illeg. Immigration go back and forth for one and two, state by state. They both tend in state polls to have about 30% of the voters say they're the number one issue. And then everything else drops to single digits after those two. So it's really in crime and illegal immigration are interwoven. So those are similar issues. And listen, as I look at this race, everyone has been whipsawed by the polls going up and down. And Trump is up, Kamala's up, Trump's up, Kamala's up. It's dizzying. It's like watching a tennis match, which I'm sure you like, Ben, but it does get a little crazy going back and forth. At the end of the day, sitting here six weeks out, I am still optimistic. I think it's going to be a good election night. I think Republicans are going to win the White House. I think we're going to win the Senate, and I think we're going to win the House and grow our majority in the House. And the reason is that on those three issues, the top issues, all three of them favor Republicans. At the end of the day, Kamala Harris's entire campaign strategy is built on the approach of hide, dodge, evade, pretend you're not in office, pretend you have no responsibility. For the record right now, that can last a while. And with the media helping her, it has lasted a considerable while. But at the end of the day, I think it's just untenable. And so my hope, and this has been my message, I saw Trump. I was with him Thursday night. We had a big event in D.C. where he was standing up against anti Semitism. It was a really good, really good, really strong event. And my message to him then and Every time I see him is focus on the issues. The fundamental contrast, your record versus her record, Trump's record as president in virtually every respect. On the fundamental question, are you better off now than you were four years ago? The answer for virtually everyone is no. And my hope is on the presidential that that gets pounded in a million times between now and election Day.
- [05:25]
Ben Ferguson
There also seems to be another problem that Kamala Harris is really facing, and it seems to be enthusiasm. She doesn't have the numbers that you usually traditionally need among minority voters, either Hispanics or African Americans. And also there's real concerns now of younger voters 35 and under staying home. Is that a recipe for disaster? And how much should we read into that six weeks out?
- [05:52]
Senator Ted Cruz
Well, A, there's a lack of enthusiasm. B, we've seen younger voters breaking more towards Trump because, look, younger voters, it was easy. Voting for hope and change is an easy thing for young people to do. But getting mugged by reality has a way of changing your perspective. It's one thing when you're coming out of four years of Trump and the economy is good, you're safe and you feel like, okay, I'm gonna go with a feel good vote. Now look, young people are discovering now inflation. They're trying to pay their bills. They go to the grocery store and holy cow, their paycheck doesn't even cover their expenses. You know, they look at their bills, they try to fill up a tank of gas and wow, that hurts. And then you look at say a young couple that's going to buy their first home. And it was only four years ago that we had two and a half percent interest rates. Now you've got 7% interest rates. And young people I think are really feeling that. And so that you've got both decreased enthusiasm, but you also have the people who are feeling the pinch, the pain of this bad record are many of the people who four years ago pulled the lever for Joe Biden. And I think they're going to be less eager to do so this time.
- [07:11]
Ben Ferguson
You know, there's something that you just mentioned there, and it's about people just feeling the pain every time they get their paycheck and it's not enough to cover their bills. There was a big policy that was rolled out and then I don't know if you've noticed this, but I've noticed it, like now it's like non existent. It was this big $25,000 for first time home buyers trying to bribe people to vote for Kamala Harris. And I'll give you $25,000 if you haven't bought a house. And now I haven't heard anything about that. Is it because they know that they can't do it? Usually they don't mind lying, like they lied multiple times on student loans. Or is it because they're not talking about it because they've gotten caught so many times promising things like student loan forgiveness that they haven't been able to do?
- [07:57]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, I think people just thought it was gimmicky. I think people were skeptical of it. I can tell you, anyone who attended even a basic econ class would know the only effect of that is going to be to raise the cost of houses by $25,000. I mean, that's what it's going to do. You know, it also struck me it was really, really sharp compared to the bill that passed California that actually Gavin Newsom vetoed. That, if I remember right, was $150,000 for a home if you're an illegal alien. And so it was striking that Kamala was offering so much less to American citizens than California Democrats were willing to give to illegals. I just think people heard that, and it just sounded like BS to them.
- [08:43]
Ben Ferguson
Well, let's talk about also the price controls on food. I mean, it's clearly a communist idea. It was one that was just obliterated when she said it by so many on tv. One of those. And it was an interesting point, because I think it stuck with me was Kevin O'Leary. He's one of the guys on Shark Tank. A lot of Americans that maybe aren't watching, you know, like, cnbc, but they know Shark Tank. And when he said what he said, it went viral. And I think it went viral because people know him from Shark Tank, and they. They actually kind of like him. And this is what he said back in August, and it's still today. Showing up on my timeline with. With, I think it was 40 or 50 million views.
- [09:26]
Kevin O'Leary
Kevin, since you brought that up, she's calling it price gouging. You know, price controls, price fixing, whatever it is. I'm wondering why we aren't hearing more business leaders, more grocery store operators coming out and saying, this plan is crazy, it doesn't work. Why are we hearing more of them push back on this?
- [09:46]
Larry Kudlow
Oh, they're coming. Don't worry. Don't worry. There's a lot of narrative going on in the background waiting for Labor Day to pass this policy. The best way to describe it is on American. And let me explain why in America, we don't tell a farmer what to sell his apple for. And we don't tell a grocer what to sell it for. That's how our economy works. We don't have the Ministry of Grocery Pricing. There is no way to monitor this. We tried 70s, they tried it in the late 80s in the Soviet Union. They've been trying it in Venezuela. It leads to shortages and hyperinflation. This policy is beyond bad. It's insane. And I think it will go nowhere. I get why she's doing it. It's populous. But we're all waiting for when she has to sit in front of you, a reporter who will ask her how she's going to implement this, that's when this falls apart. There is no way to do this. And every time it's tried, it's ended up in an absolute catastrophe.
- [10:49]
Ben Ferguson
Every time it's been tried, it ends up in absolute catastrophe. And this clip was back in August when he said it. And yet still it seems like it's breaking news for people that are in normal middle America.
- [11:01]
Senator Ted Cruz
Now, I will say there are a couple of premises of what he said that have proven false. Number one, he says, when she sits in front of you, a reporter, well, she's not sitting in front of reporters. And he said, who? Secondly, will ask her how she's going to do it. The handful of times she has sat in front of her reporters, they throw softballs to her and ask her how she became so amazing and wonderful. And, you know, I'm waiting for the what's your favorite ice cream? Although that's their Joe Biden question. So she's not getting any pushback from the press. That being said, like you made a comment when you said that the price controls were communist. And it reminded me of, you know, during the debate, Trump said, well, she's a Marxist and her father was a Marxist professor. And I gotta say, both when you said it, when he said it, I think to some people that seems a little jarring because the word communist or Marxist just sounds like an insult. It's like you're calling someone, you know, just a jerk. But, but look, being a Marxist, being a communist, that, that is an actual thing. It is something that has substance and content. Marxism is, is, is the philosophy that was taught by Karl Marx and it is the predicate for communism. And, and the reason you said, and you said rightly, that price controls are communist. But, but this is not even theoretical Marxism. Actually, theoretical Marxism doesn't have a whole lot about price controls. It is rather practical Marxism that you look at communist countries. You look at the Soviet Union, you look at Cuba, you look at Venezuela, and what they end up doing is the government fixes prices and says, okay, if you want a gallon of milk, we're going to say a gallon of milk is a dollar. And then they just pick a number, and they pick a number that they want to sound low because people will be happy. And then what. What O'Leary said is, is what happens. The price controls are always wrong, and you end up having massive shortages. So if you looked at the Soviet Union, you just saw empty grocery shelves, so it was great. You had a dollar for a gallon of milk. There was just no milk. But. But you were really happy. It was so cheap if it were there. And that O'Leary is right, that every place that has been tried, it fails. And the reason is a price is reflecting millions of inputs and outputs, and it's supply and demand meeting each other. And the government has never been smart enough to figure that out. They always, always, always get it wrong. And this is where leftists say, well, next time we'll do it better. Well, it never has been. Nobody ever has gotten it right. And I'm willing to venture that Kamala is not smarter than everyone else who's tried price controls in the past.
- [13:45]
Ben Ferguson
So when you look at this as an issue, Larry Kudlow, when it came out, he said, this is price controls. Controls by any other name, and let's just call it what it is, it's been a failure. But he also warned about what happens with the black market. And he said. He went in and he said, let's just talk about profits, because she kept coming back. And this is what the Democrats do. They demonize people that make money. And he. And he said, let's just talk about corporate margins. And he says, if they're gouging somebody, they must be enormously profitable. And they are not referring to grocers, right? He said, okay. He said, grocery store Profit margin is 1.2%. The meat, beef and poultry, 4.7%. All of American businesses, by the way, are well above that at eight and a half percent. And he said, look, if she wants to go after somebody for making too much money, Apple, for example, they make 26%. Microsoft, 36%. Navita, 53%. He said, so the idea that the grocery market is the problem with a grocery store's profit margin, on average last year was 1.2%. He said, is total insanity. And this is her just trying to blame her bad policies on somebody else.
- [15:04]
Senator Ted Cruz
Well, look, she has a political imperative to do this, which is people are really unhappy with inflation, they're unhappy with the economy, they're unhappy with illegal immigration, they're unhappy with crime. And so she knows. I remember at the debate, the very first question asked in the debate is, are you better off now than you were four years ago? That is, there's such a powerful inherent impetus to this that, well, okay, listen to what Tim Waltz had to say on exactly this point.
- [15:34]
Larry Kudlow
We can't afford.
- [15:37]
Senator Ted Cruz
We can't afford four more years of this.
- [15:40]
Ben Ferguson
Senator. That should be an ad that's instantly made not just for. For Trump, but I think for anybody running for office, like Harrison Waltz. I mean, it's right in front of him. It's on the podium. The signs are behind him in Pennsylvania, and he says, we can't handle four more years of this. And yet it's her policies that got us to where we are right now.
- [16:00]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah. I don't know if the Trump campaign has actually put out it as an ad. I know I've seen on Twitter that clip. And then I'm Donald Trump and I approve this message because it literally that the inherent impetus to say, are you better off now than you are four years ago? Tim Walt is saying, we can't afford four more years of this. Wait a second. Kamala Harris is in charge. She and Joe Biden are both in. They are the president and vice president. And that's their fundamental problem, is they're trying to run a change campaign of everything sucks. So vote for me and I'll change it. But she's the one in office. And listen, it's incumbent. The media are not going to point that out. Kamala's not going to point that out. So it is incumbent on the Trump campaign to point that out.
- [16:51]
Ben Ferguson
All right, so you mentioned the Trump campaign, and Donald Trump has already said, made it very clear he's not having another debate. Kamala Harris has said, I want another debate after the last one. There's a vice presidential debate that's coming up in the next six weeks usually. And traditionally, vice presidential debates don't really move the needle when it comes to the polls. They just don't. Now, that can be good or bad, depending on how you look at it, but traditionally, it doesn't move the needle. Is this vice presidential debate, in your opinion, any more important? Because there was only one debate between these two beforehand.
- [17:25]
Senator Ted Cruz
Look, I think some people will watch it. You and I'll watch it because we're both politics nerds. But I think the viewership will be a fraction of the viewership that watched Trump versus Harris. And I think it'll probably be the two of them just pounding the hell out of each other. I suspect neither of them like each other very much. And I think it'll be nasty. I think they'll be snarky. I think they'll be, you know, JD is very bright. Waltz appears to be bright as well. So I think they'll both be just slugging it out. But I do not see the VP debate as moving a significant number of votes either direction.
- [18:06]
Ben Ferguson
It goes back to like you said earlier, it's the economy, stupid. I want to deal with the second issue on your list and that was illegal immigration. And also it really does come into the also the issue of crime. We're going to deal with that in a moment. But first let me tell you about Patriot Mobile. Americans are tired and frustrated by stalling economy, inflation, endless wars and the relentless assault on our Christian conservative values. That is why I want you to know about a great company called Patriot Mobile. You may not realize if you are with Big Mobile right now, you are helping make big donations to Democratic causes, candidates and organizations. Organizations that fight against your first and your second Amendment rights, organizations that pay for abortions. And that is exactly why I want you to switch to Patriot Mobile. Because when you switch, not only are you working with a company that believes in America and our Constitution, but Patriot Mobile also is on the front lines using part of your bill every month at no extra cost to you to stand up and fight for first and our second Amendment, the sanctity of life, as well as stand with our military, our first responders and our wounded warriors. You can make a difference with every phone call you make by just switching to patriot mobile. They're 100% US based customer service team will find you the best plan and many times they'll save you money. And you can keep your same number you have right now, keep the phone in your hand right now or upgrade to a new one and you get to take a stand for your conservative values every single time you text or make a phone call. They have unbelievable service because they use the same towers that you're using right now. So go to patriotmobile.com virtual that's patriot mobile.com verdict or call 972-PATRIOT right now and get a free month when you use the offer code VERDICT972PATRIOT or PATRIOTMOBILE.com VERDICT promo code VERDICT. Get that free month of service. Join me and switch to America's only Christian conservative mobile provider, patriotmobile.com vertiker972 Patriot for a free month of service today. So let's move to subject number two that you think is really, it's polling. Not just you saying this or I'm saying this, it's polling at number two. And it is the issue of an open or in illegal immigration. Democrats, I don't think, realize how big of a liability this was going to be for them. But we're seeing it play out in places like Aurora, Colorado. We're seeing it play out in New York City. We're seeing it playing out and all of these major, quote, sanctuary cities that they bragged about just two years ago in the election. We're a sanctuary city. We're a sanctuary city. We're a welcoming city, we're a loving city. Hell, I mean, the mayor of New York City was running on that, that we're a sanctuary city. Now he's like, get out of here. You're ruining my city. That is going to be a big liability on election day.
- [21:02]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah. And look, broadly speaking, there are two major demographic trends in America. Number one, blue collar voters are moving right, that, that is moving Midwestern states more Republican. But number two, suburban voters and in particular, suburban women have been moving left and that has been moving big suburban states like Georgia, like Texas, like Arizona, they've been getting more purple because they have large suburban populations. Part of the reason that that illegal immigration is, is such a powerful issue this race is, is that with suburban women, illegal immigration is often topping the list of their top issue. And listen, for many suburban women in 2020, they were not particularly fond of Trump's tone and his rhetoric. And even though they agreed with him on the issues, they didn't like the way he said it. And many of them voted Democrat. The question now as illegal immigration and crime has gotten worse and worse is, okay, you're a suburban mom. Do you really want an MS.13 gang banger living next door to you and threatening your kids? And it's becoming real. When they see Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment buildings in Aurora, Colorado, or in El Paso or in Chicago, when they see day after day after day Americans being killed, women being raped, children being raped by illegal immigrants being released, that fundamentally starts to, it really goes to safety and security. It becomes real. It becomes, wait, this is threatening my family. And so that is an issue which I hope every day between now and election day, the economy and illegal immigration are every day, every topic, all day long.
- [23:07]
Ben Ferguson
When you look at not just the issue of safety is the issue of the financial burden on the community becoming enough of an issue that it is going to matter on election Day. I say that because in Colorado, for example, in Denver, they're actually having to move resources around. They're not able to hire an adequate police force because so much money is now going to take care of illegal immigrants. New York City, it is a drain on their economy. Not just the safety aspect, but a drain financially. The amount of money it's taking. Is that also one of the things that you think Democrats maybe didn't calculate when they were figuring this one out?
- [23:49]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, I think that's a bigger issue for Democrat politicians than it is for voters. So if you're the mayor of New York, the financial drain's a real problem because you got to figure out where to pay for, get the money for all these hotel rooms that you're putting illegal aliens in. I'm not sure the voters necessarily make the connection between where that money is coming from. It is an issue, but I think a far more potent issue in New York City, for example, is we covered on a podcast a few weeks ago the reports that 75%. 75% of the crimes in midtown Manhattan were being committed by illegal aliens. I mean, that is a stunning number. That is a number that I think people understandably get really upset about. Why are you bringing criminals into my community? And it's why Kamala is desperately trying to run away from this issue. Look, she has spent her entire career denouncing the wall, arguing for amnesty, saying illegal immigration shouldn't be illegal. On every issue. She's been an open border radical. She is right now spending millions of dollars running TV ads with Donald Trump's border wall in it. I mean, it is. It is a fundamentally, a duplicitous strategy. She's trying to pretend that her record is the exact opposite of what it is. I think that can work sometimes, but at the end of the day, I'm a big believer that truth will prevail. And I think it's just so fundamentally false. And I think the Democrats are pretty skeptical of the voters. They think the voters are stupid and gullible, frankly, and that they can be conned. I think the voters have more sense than that.
- [25:31]
Ben Ferguson
You know, you mentioned the moments that stick with us. And I go back to another viral moment that happened this last week, and it was the former chief Border Patrol agent that was ordered by the Biden Harris administration to cover up the disastrous numbers at the border. And when he said this to. To Congress, it is still, at this moment, going viral.
- [25:57]
Former Chief Border Patrol Agent
Once Word was out the border was far easier to cross. San Diego went to over 100 SIAs in 2022, well over that in 2023, and even more than that registered this year. These are only the ones we caught. At the time, I was told I could not release any information on this increase in SIAs or mention any of the arrests. The administration was trying to convince the public there was no threat at the border. Fentanyl is another issue. The San Diego area sees between 80 and 90% of the methamphetamine and fentanyl seizures annually for our entire country. With little enforcement at the border, these drugs were coming through en masse. During my last year in San Diego, the price for a single pill of fentanyl, for example, went from $10 to 25 cents. To make matters worse, during 2022 and 23, I had to shut down San Diego traffic checkpoints, which are critical for drug interdiction, because the resources had been diverted to the process and release mission. The large numbers also had and still have a negative impact on the San Diego community. I had to release illegal aliens by the hundreds each day into communities who could not support them. To quiet the problem, two flights a week were provided from San Diego to Texas. These flights simply brought aliens that would have been released in San Diego over to Texas.
- [27:16]
Ben Ferguson
I mean, that's gotta just make you live it as the senator from Texas, to hear him just say, yeah, they just sent planes and dropped them off in Texas.
- [27:24]
Senator Ted Cruz
Well, of course it does. And for this White House, it's all political. And so they've decided, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, that they hate Texas, and they're perfectly happy to dump as many illegal aliens as they can in Texas. Never mind the millions that we have flooding into our state because of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's open border policies. Now they're flying him in from other states to Texas, and it is, at the end of the day, completely indefensible. And my hope is that the Trump campaign puts this issue in front of the voters each and every day because Kamala Harris does not want to talk about this.
- [28:04]
Ben Ferguson
So let's talk about, I think, finally, where we are when it comes to the Senate, which is so important, the Senate. If we don't have control of the Senate, it just makes things so hard. Even if you've got the White House, to get stuff done that can have real change and move us back to where we need to go. A lot of people that walk up to me ask me, I'm sure the Same questions they ask you, which is, okay, can we flip the Senate, can we get back control of the Senate? And you gotta look at the swing states, and you gotta look at these. Some tight elections. We thought we were gonna have a good chance in the last, the midterms, get the Senate back. We didn't. And so now you look at this, this time, what does it look like for us? And how should people look at these issues and how are they going to work in these swing states?
- [28:54]
Senator Ted Cruz
So, look, there's good news and bad news. The good news is it's a very favorable map for Republicans. There are a bunch of Democrat seats that are up in red states or purple states that Trump has a real shot of winning. And so six, seven weeks ago, when Biden was at the top of the ticket, Republicans were on track to win four, five, six Senate seats. It was set up to be just a fantastic election. The election has tightened. Kamala replacing Joe Biden at the top of the ticket has moved the race of the Democrats direction. And the reason was Joe Biden was only getting about 85% of Democrats when he was the nominee. Democrats were demoralized, they were dispirited, they were fractured. And by the way, those 85%, that meant 15% were either going to stay home or were looking to vote Republican. And so it was going to be a big, big Republican year. Kamala, with her at the top of the ticket, much of the Democrat Party has come home. And so she's Getting anywhere from 92 to 95% of the Democrats that has moved the races. So right now, the Democrats have a 51:49 advantage in the Senate. If you look at, if you assume that the polling today is what would happen, and that's, that's not a fair assumption, by the way. We're six weeks out, and I think the issue set favors Republicans. But if you assume the polling today is what would happen, then, number one, Republicans are going to win West Virginia. It's essentially 100% that we're going to win West Virginia. Joe Manchin, a Democrat, is the incumbent senator from West Virginia. He's not running for reelection. And so Jim justice, the governor, is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have essentially conceded West Virginia. It's such a red state. It went for Trump by 38 points last time. We will win West Virginia. That means we start with the Senate at 50, 50 of the remaining swing states, the only one where the Senate candidate is consistently leading Montana, but we are consistently leading in Montana. That means if, if the election day were Today and the polls are accurate, the result would be 51 49, a Republican majority. Now, let's break through state by state. What are the states that are in play then? And we'll just go alphabetically through, through, through the various swing states.
- [31:20]
Ben Ferguson
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- [33:05]
Senator Ted Cruz
All right, so let's start with Arizona. The best way typically to consume polling numbers is to look to the real clear politics average. And so look, there are variations among polls. Some polls are more accurate than others. But the way most political professionals do is they look to the polling average. And the theory is the average is sort of it averages out the ups and the downs. So if you look to the real clear politics average in Arizona right now, this is a race between Gallego the Democrat, and Kerry Lake the Republican right now, Gallego is leading by 4.3 points. So that's the average. That's the average of the last four polls that have been done in that race. Trump has a good chance of winning Arizona. So right now, Trump is outperforming Kari Lake in that state. But four points is very winnable. She can win that race. But according to the average, right now the Democrats are ahead. Let's move to Michigan. So if you look at Michigan, the two candidates are Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rogers, the Republican. In Michigan, the Real Clear Politics average is the Democrat at 5.1%. So again, five points is pretty close, but it does show an advantage right now for the Democrats. And that's an average of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 polls in the last month. The Democrat is ahead by an average of 5.1%. All right, let's go to Montana. Montana, I mentioned, is the brightest spot in terms of the pickup. This is a battle between Jon Tester, the Democrat, the incumbent, and Tim Sheehy, the Republican. And Sheehy is ahead on an average of 5.2 points. So that's sizable. It's not decisive. Tester could still come back and win it, but that's been a consistent lead. If you look at the last four polls. Sheehy six, Sheehy seven, she plus six, and she plus two. So that's been a consistent lead. All right, let's look to Nevada. So Nevada, the numbers are bumpier. The incumbent is Jackie Rosen. She's a Democrat. Sam Brown is a Republican. The Real Clear Politics average is Rosen by 8.8%. So that's a pretty sizable lead. Nevada is another state where Trump is very competitive and so he could win Trump. It may be that the polling numbers are understating where Brown is, but 8.8% is. There's some distance to be closed on the average polling there.
- [35:37]
Ben Ferguson
All right, let me ask you this real quick before you move forward, because this is a question I know everybody's asking their head. All right, you just mentioned this state and then you mentioned Arizona earlier, where Trump is leading, but Kari Lake is not there. How often do you see a presidential election cycle historically where the, the Republican wins in the state, but the person next down the ball in the Senate race loses. Where people walk in, they go yes for Trump and no for the Senate candidate. Is that happen very often?
- [36:07]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, that happens with, with some regularity. And Trump in, in most states is going to get more votes than the down ballot Republicans. For one thing, there are people that come in that just vote president and leave. And then there are also there will be some voters at every one of these states who votes for Trump at the top of the ticket and then for a Democrat Senate candidate. I wish they didn't. It is frustrating as all get out, but there exists. And to be fair, in a weird.
- [36:37]
Ben Ferguson
Way, you're like voting against your own interests of what you're saying you want for the country with the president. Well, he needs the votes in the House and Senate to get that agenda done.
- [36:44]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah. And there tend to be more crossover voters who do Trump and a Democrat Senate candidate. Then there are crossover voters who vote Kamala Harris at a Republican Senate candidate. It, it, it just at the end of the day has tended to be a one way ratchet. All right, let's go to Ohio. Ohio is the next closest after Montana, and the two candidates are Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, who's the incumbent, Bernie Moreno, the Republican. The Real Clear Politics average is the Democrat up by 3.6%. So the last three polls were plus 2, plus 5, plus 4. So Ohio is definitely winnable. Trump is extremely likely to win Ohio. He could win Ohio by double digits. But right now Brown is polling substantially ahead of where Kamala Harris is in Ohio. And so Ohio is a state where there are a number of voters right now who say they're voting for Donald Trump and yet a Democrat senator who will fight to undermine everything Trump does every single day in the Senate. Which is why I wish voters wouldn't do that. I don't think that makes sense. And I think it, it ends up working against yourself. But nonetheless, there's some voters that do. All right, Pennsylvania. So Pennsylvania is probably the most important battleground in the country. It, it, it is the state most likely to decide the presidential race. The incumbent is Bob Casey. He's a Democrat. Dave McCormick, the Republican, a very good friend of mine, who I've endorsed and campaigned with multiple times. Across Pennsylvania, the Real Clear Politics average is 4.9%. And so starting from, so back in August, there was a tie, then Casey plus 1, then Casey plus 7, then Casey plus 8, then Casey plus 4, then Casey plus 9, then Casey plus 5, then Casey plus 5, then casey plus 5, then Casey plus 9, and then the Washington Post, the most recent poll showed it as a tie. So look, there's some, there's some variability on that. So, so the last two polls were Casey plus nine and a tie. I mean, that's a big delta between those two.
- [38:52]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, scratcher.
- [38:55]
Senator Ted Cruz
And so it's why you tend to look to the average because the average kind of takes out the highs and lows. And so 4.9%, you would say right now the Democrats have an advantage, but 4.9%, you can definitely close between now and Election Day. And I think the issue set favors us. All right, Maryland. Maryland is a state that shouldn't be a battleground. It's a very blue state. It is going to go. It is going to go for Kamala Harris by double digits. And yet you've got Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan, the former governor there is a Republican, very popular governor running against a Democrat. Also, Brooks, the Real Clear politics average is 6.8%. But again, there's been a lot of variability on this. So back in August, there was a poll that was a tie and then Democrat plus 5, Democrat plus 7. And then there was one just recently, Democrat plus 15. So Maryland is a race that is winnable. But to do that, Hogan is going to have to outperform Trump by 20 points or more. That ain't easy to do. That is a big, big delta. He was the governor there. He was very popular. And he's the only, he's the only Republican who has a prayer to win in Maryland. But Maryland is not an easy state for a Republican to win. And the final battleground is Wisconsin. Wisconsin is Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, who's the incumbent? Eric Hovdi is the Republican running against her. The Real Clear Politics average is Democrat, 4.6%. So again, close winnable. But right now the Democrats have the advantage. Although it's interesting, if you look at the polls going back to August, it was Democrat plus 6, Democrat plus 5, Democrat plus 8. But then the last four polls have been Democrat plus 3, Democrat plus 3, Democrat plus 4, Democrat plus 3. So the race has tightened in the last couple of weeks and it's about a three and a half point differential in the in the last four polls, which means Wisconsin is very winnable. And look, every one of these states that I mentioned is winnable by the Republicans. But for us to win, the numbers need to shift four or five points. And to do that, we've got to focus on the issues. And the issues are the same issues as the presidential the economy, inflation, illegal immigration and crime. And if we focus on those, I think we've got a real shot at winning every one of those six weeks.
- [41:36]
Ben Ferguson
It's getting here very quickly. Election Day and early voting. It's incredible. We are in it now. I hope you guys will take the show, share it wherever you are on social media. Make sure you hit that subscribe or auto download button. We'll keep covering these important poll numbers as they come out and on those in between days, as you know, we do the show Monday, Wednesday, Friday. On those in between days, grab my show, the Ben Ferguson Podcast, and I'll keep you up to date on the latest breaking news as well the Center I will see you back here Wednesday morning.