Summary of "Trump Guilty Verdict Makes a Mockery of Rule of Law-What does it Mean & What's Next?"
Podcast: The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
Host: Ben Ferguson
Guest: Senator Ted Cruz
Release Date: May 31, 2024
1. Breaking Down the Verdict
At the outset of the episode (00:01), host Ben Ferguson announces the groundbreaking news: former President Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts related to election interference. This verdict has stirred significant controversy, prompting an immediate discussion with Senator Ted Cruz.
Ben Ferguson: "Election interference. Donald Trump found guilty on all 34 counts. Welcome." (00:01)
2. Senator Cruz's Reaction: A Miscarriage of Justice
Senator Ted Cruz shares his vehement opposition to the verdict, labeling it an "absolute miscarriage of justice" and alleging it to be a politically motivated "hip job" rather than a genuine application of the rule of law (00:26).
Senator Cruz:
"This was an absolute miscarriage of justice. This was not law. This was not criminal justice. This was politics."
(00:26)
He emphasizes that the 34 felony counts, which under cumulative sentencing could result in over a century in jail, are unlikely to lead to actual incarceration. Cruz asserts that the trial was deeply partisan, with New York jurors acting as "Democrat partisans" driven by dubious jury instructions.
Senator Cruz:
"The judge has made the New York justice system into a global laughingstock across the planet."
(01:43)
3. Implications for the Upcoming Election
The timing of the sentencing, slated to occur the same week as the Republican National Convention, is a focal point of concern. Cruz predicts that while there's a possibility of Trump facing jail time or house arrest, it is "unlikely" due to the political ramifications that would ensue.
Senator Cruz:
"The entire trial is designed to interfere with the election. ... their effort to try to stop the American people from reelecting Trump."
(04:15)
He anticipates that any conviction will be swiftly overturned on appeal, preventing immediate repercussions before Election Day. Cruz criticizes the judge and prosecution for their handling, suggesting that their actions are aimed more at political sabotage than legal justice.
4. The Debate Over Sentencing and Appeals
The discussion delves into the mechanics of the sentencing process and the appellate system. Cruz outlines the standard procedures post-conviction, including pre-sentencing evaluations and psychological assessments, which are expected to delay any final sentencing until after the election (08:19).
Senator Cruz:
"I believe the chances that this conviction is overturned on appeal, I believe are 100.0%. It will be overturned on appeal."
(08:19)
He argues that while the judge may harbor personal animosity towards Trump, enforcing a harsh sentence would backfire legally and politically, ensuring an appellate reversal that wouldn't impact the election outcome.
5. Potential Supreme Court Involvement
Addressing the possibility of expedited appeals, Cruz explains the rarity and difficulty of securing a swift review by the Supreme Court. He acknowledges that while Trump's legal team might attempt an "extraordinary writ", the Supreme Court typically avoids entanglement in political conflicts.
Senator Cruz:
"It's extraordinarily rare, but it is theoretically possible."
(14:41)
He reminisces about the Bush v. Gore case, illustrating the Supreme Court's cautious approach in politically charged situations, and suggests that similar restraint would likely be exercised in Trump's case, despite the high stakes.
6. Voter Sentiment and Election Impact
Cruz discusses the anticipated political fallout from the verdict, asserting that repeated branding of Trump as a "convicted felon" by Democrats and the media is intended to sway undecided voters against him. However, he remains skeptical about its effectiveness.
Senator Cruz:
"I really don't see this changing votes. ... they're not going to do anything to tee up a legal victory for Donald Trump before November."
(29:09)
He predicts that the decision will serve to energize Republican supporters while reinforcing Democratic opposition to Trump, ultimately not altering the election's outcome.
7. Debate Preparation: Addressing the Felony Label
The conversation shifts to the upcoming presidential debates, where Biden is likely to reference Trump's felony conviction. Cruz offers insights into how Trump might handle such confrontations, drawing parallels to past debate experiences.
Ben Ferguson:
"If I’m in the room before the debate with Joe Biden, I know Joe Biden at some point is gonna look over at Donald Trump and say, well, you’re a convicted felon."
(32:02)
Senator Cruz:
"Trump typically engages in very little debate prep to the extent they have debate prep. ... he doesn't engage in extensive debate prep to the extent they have debate prep."
(37:35)
Cruz anticipates that Trump may exhibit his characteristic anger but suggests that successful debate strategies may balance this with composure to avoid alienating voters.
8. Allegations Against the Biden White House
Toward the episode's finale, Cruz addresses accusations that the Biden administration orchestrated the prosecution against Trump. He disputes direct orders from the White House, instead attributing the actions to individual animosity within the Department of Justice (DOJ).
Senator Cruz:
"I don't know that Alvin Bragg is taking orders from the Biden White House. ... he's a petty dictator of his own."
(37:56)
He criticizes the broader Democratic strategy as "Trump derangement syndrome," where actions against Trump are driven by a deep-seated antipathy rather than objective legal principles.
9. Poll Predictions and Closing Thoughts
In his final analysis, Cruz offers a nuanced perspective on the verdict's impact on Trump's polling numbers. While acknowledging that such legal actions can energize a political base, he maintains that Trump's current poll dominance is likely to persist, predicting a mild positive benefit for Trump.
Senator Cruz:
"If you press me, I would say I don't think it's going to cause in the polls, and I would say I think it's likely to be a mild positive benefit for Trump in the polls."
(41:24)
He concludes by reaffirming his commitment to the rule of law and encouraging listeners to remain informed and engaged as the political landscape evolves.
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the ramifications surrounding Donald Trump's conviction, exploring legal intricacies, political strategies, and potential outcomes as the nation approaches a pivotal election.