← The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson
Who WON The First 2024 GOP Debate? Plus Trump Mugshot for the Ages
00:48:24
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Transcript47 lines
- [00:01]
Senator Ted Cruz
Welcome. It is verdict with Senator Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you as well. And we are going to obviously talk about the, the most famous mug shot, I think, in political history of Donald Trump coming out of Georgia, what this means to the campaign. We're going to do that for you in a second. But we're also going to talk about the presidential debate. Now, here's the cool part. We're going to talk about what it's like to be in a presidential debate, how you prep for a presidential debate, and, and what it's like to walk out there for the first time because for many of these people, they had never been in this position before. Senator, you watched the debate. Give us your overall review of this debate. This first debate with Donald Trump not showing up. Was that smart of him not to show up? And how did you think people did on that stage?
- [00:45]
Ben Ferguson
Well, look, I thought everyone did a good job on Wednesday night. That being said, I think there were clear winners that came out of the night. And to my view, there were four winners that came out of the debate. Number one was Vivek Ramaswamy. He had a very strong performance that night. Many Americans had never heard of him, didn't know him, and I think he impressed a lot of people. His stock went up. He's going to raise a lot of money off of that. He's going to go up in the polls, particularly in the early primary states, I think. Secondly, Nikki Haley did well on Wednesday night. She was crisp, she was strong. Now, she was aiming for a different slice of the electorate. She was not going for the Maga America first slice. She was not particularly going for conservatives. She was aiming much more for the establishment lane. But she was aggressive, smart, well prepared, and I think she strengthened herself. She had been out of the news for a while, and I think she enhanced her standing Wednesday night. The third person who I think advanced himself somewhat is Mike Pence. Now, look, Mike is a friend, actually, all these guys. I know everyone on the stage well. But Mike is a good man. Mike had been having a tough time. He had not been getting a lot of traction. And I think he was pugnacious. He was in there fighting. I think he made a deliberate play for evangelical voters in particular in Iowa. I think there were several of his answers that were directed very much at evangelical voters. And I think he probably helped himself. He reminded, I mean, Mike is a Christian, a strong believer, and I think he reminded people what they've always liked about Mike Pence. I think he enhanced himself somewhat on Wednesday night, but none of the three of those were the biggest winners. I think by far the biggest winner Wednesday night was Donald Trump. And I think Trump was very happy with everything that went down. And the reason for that is several fold. Number one, obviously, Trump didn't show up. And by not showing up, he forces a dynamic on the entire debate that it's very difficult to avoid. The analogy of, you think back in 2016, when there were two debate stages, the main debate stage for the candidates that were leading in the polls, and then they had a second debate stage for the candidates that were relatively low in the polls. And almost everyone referred to the second stage as the kiddie table. And I think by Trump's absence, it had the effect of diminishing everyone on that stage. And I think that's what he wanted. I think that was his intention. He has a big lead in the polls, but I think his absence made it feel like he's on a stage by himself and everyone else is on the other stage fighting between themselves. But secondly, and this is the biggest reason why I think Trump was benefited, you and I have talked about before how I think this primary is principally a two person race and a two person race between Trump and Ron DeSantis. DeSantis did fine on Wednesday night. He didn't screw anything up, he didn't have any gaffes, but he did not dominate, he did not own that stage. He was not clearly head and shoulders above the rest. And for the DeSantis campaign, that's a problem. In particular, the problem for DeSantis is what I started by saying that Vivek and Haley and Pence all did quite well. I think all three of them are going to enhance their numbers. And if their numbers are going to be enhanced, that comes out of DeSantis. Hyde.
- [04:45]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [04:46]
Ben Ferguson
For DeSantis to have a shot at beating Trump, it's got to be a two man race. And so the reason why I think Trump was the biggest winner Wednesday night is that I think after the debate there were more contenders gaining traction. And the more the contenders are splitting support among multiple candidates, the better off Trump is. And, and, and so that's why I think the Trump team was very happy when the debate was over because he looked at the field and saw Vivek gaining a few points, Haley gaining a few points, Pence gaining a few points. And if they're splintered, that makes it much harder for anyone on that stage to credibly go after Trump when he's got a 30, 40 point lead over the field. And, and I Didn't see anything Wednesday night that, that significantly changed the dynamic of the large advantage Trump has.
- [05:41]
Senator Ted Cruz
You know, it. Sometimes there's a little bit of humor that you get to have in these moments. I started my podcast this morning, Senator, by saying, well, it was an incredible vice presidential. I'm sorry, I mean, presidential debate. But that's kind of what you're saying, in a sense is no one really moved up in a significant way or solidified or really took away from the group overall to challenge Trump, who's still probably 50 points ahead. And again, you can lose a lot of the debate if you're the winner, if you're the leader, I should say, but you can, you can lose a lot very quickly if you're the, if you're the leader and you don't perform really well, Trump not even having to show up, his poll numbers are going to probably say exactly the same this next week. Would you agree?
- [06:24]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, I think that's right. I think Trump will continue to have a very strong position in the Republican primary. Now, I've also said I don't think the primary is over. I think everyone that, that is trying to say, okay, it's done, is, is looking at it from an, a historical lens. I think that we still have a vigorous primary ahead of us. But look, several things could happen in primaries, in primary debates. Number one, in a debate, someone can screw something up badly. Someone can tank their, their campaign. I don't think anyone did that Wednesday night. So no one, no one had a major gaffe. No one had a moment that is likely to be fatal to their campaign. That's important. Secondly, you can have a candidate that has a breakthrough moment that just energizes, raises a mountain of money, soars in the polls. And that's happened a number of times. I don't think that happened either. I think the winners on that stage that I was discussing are relative winners and marginal winners. I think the three candidates I identified are likely to gain some in the polls. They'll gain a couple of points, they'll gain some momentum, they'll raise some money. And that's actually the money piece is a big chunk of it. You saw in their closing statements, several of the candidates pitched their websites. A good debate can raise you millions of dollars. And for all of these candidates, most of these campaigns are gasping on fumes. And so that's one component is they need the funds to make it to the next debate, to make it through. Look, there's a reason presidential candidates drop out, and it's almost always the same reason they go broke.
- [08:04]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [08:04]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah. That's when campaigns end, is when they can no longer keep the lights on. They can no longer pay the staff, they can no longer travel, they can no longer communicate. To communicate in politics takes money. And in my view, the fact that other candidates got traction hurts the DeSantis campaign. Now, I don't think DeSantis had any bad moments. I think he had some good moments Wednesday night. I just don't think there was a meaningful gulf between DeSantis and the other candidates on the stage. And in a campaign where you're trying to make it a two man race between you and Trump, that's not ideal.
- [08:52]
Senator Ted Cruz
I want to tell you about an amazing trip that we as verdict listeners are going to be taking to the Holy Land, Israel. Israel is the cradle of Judaism, Christianity and many of the principles that we hold dear as Americans. And I want you to join me and many other listeners as we visit sites like the Armageddon Battlefield, Nazareth, Jericho, Jerusalem, Bethlehem. You're also on this trip going to set sail on the Sea of Galilee and you're going to float on the Dead Sea. We're going to walk in the footsteps of biblical figures like King David and Jesus Christ and you're going to do it all together with other listeners from around the country. Now I'm going to meet up with you in Jerusalem and you're going to experience the city and some of the most amazing sites like the Western Wall, the Temple Mount. The trip is going to deepen your understanding of the Bible and of Western civilization. We're also going to have with us a spirit adviser pastor who's going to talk at each site about the significance in the Bible with this trip. It is going to be incredible. Now you've got time to plan because the trip's going to take place May 6th through the 15th of 2024. Now the good news is this is trip is amazing and it's signing. People are signing up fast. So you need to find out and book your spot now before it's too late. You can go right now to Christian expedition.com/Ben. That's Christian expedition.comBen. you can also call them and get the information guide and find out everything you need to know about this once in a lifetime trip to Israel. 877-234-3002 that's 877234, 3002 or online@christianxpedition.com Ben Center. I, I wanna, I want you to pull back the curtain for everybody because I've that I want to ask, and I was around Your campaign in 2016, but there's very few that see what happened when it, when it comes to debate prep, when it comes into the days and the hours before a debate, the nerves that obviously everyone on stage is going to feel in some point, especially in your first debate. Take us back to 2016. How did you prep for that first presidential debate? Like so many were having to prep for last night. And you had debated in college, you had debated when you were running for Senate. But did it feel different when you were running for president in that first debate? And what was your goal for success as a candidate when you walk up there night one of a debate?
- [11:28]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah. Well, first of all, does it feel different? Absolutely. And I guarantee you, everyone on that stage was unbelievably nervous. I'm not someone who feels a whole lot of nerves very often, but I distinctly remember that first debate in Cleveland. 24 million people watched that first debate. And I remember before the debate, you go out and you do a walkthrough, sort of a practice where they show you where your podium is, and you stand on the stage and you look up and this is a couple hours before the debate starts. And I remember standing there and just looking up and up and up. And it was a big, big auditorium in Cleveland, and it kind of takes your breath away. You're like, okay, they're shooting with real bullets here tonight, like this. This is for real. Everyone was feeling that on Wednesday night. And that it's just, it is a huge stage. Part of the reason that debates matter so much, so much of a presidential debate is. And so much of a presidential campaign is driven by the media cycle, is driven by what the news chooses to cover. And look, our corporate media is thoroughly corrupt. And so if you have a campaign that you're trying to drive a message, it can be maddeningly infuriating when the media is doing everything they can to frustrate your message and push the message they want. And debates are one of the very few instances where you can go around the media gatekeepers and go straight to the voters. And they, in the course of a presidential campaign, debates have the power to change the entire trajectory of a debate, either to take a candidate out. Look, if you remember in 2016, the New Hampshire debate where Chris Christie went after Marco Rubio hard, and I was standing just a few feet away from Christie. And I gotta tell you, look, it may be the only time in my life I've been physically present for homicide. I Mean, holy cow, Christie went after him. And I kind of just sort of stepped back. I sort of figuratively pulled out a newspaper and just kind of read my newspaper, said, you know, never mind, proceed. I'm not saying stop. Just. Just leave me out of this. And it was. And Christie just, he wouldn't give up. I mean, he just kept pounding and pounding and, you know, there were a few of us thinking, all right, enough, Christie, you made your point. But it was, it changed course of that debate and that campaign. There are other moments where a candidate soars and they can suddenly get energy. You know, if you remember one of the early debates where John Harwood from CNBC was blasting every candidate and just being nasty was insulting. Every candidate was drippingly condescending as a left wing reporter. And it came to me and I just unloaded on him. And my point was, look, dude, this is not about you. This is not your chance. You're a frigging Marxist. You intend to vote for the Democrat. You want everyone on this stage to lose, and you're just insulting every person here. But you know what? The American people and Republican primary voters actually give a damn. And I kind of took his head off. And I gotta tell you, the impact on our campaign was astonishing. I mean, we had that night, like, as the debate was ongoing, suddenly our fundraising exploded. I think we raised over a million bucks the next day. I mean, it was peaks.
- [15:11]
Senator Ted Cruz
It was the moment. Yeah, it was the moment. I remember watching it. And I was sitting there when that happened, and I was watching it and obviously I was yelling at the tv. I was there at that debate. And we were. I was back in a, in a green room getting ready to do TV afterwards. And it was like, that is a moment that everybody in the room was writing down on their notebook because everyone referenced it that night on tv. Like, this was a moment in the debate that no one was going to forget.
- [15:36]
Ben Ferguson
Well, and the mechanics of what happens when you have a moment that resonates, your fundraising explodes. And I remember we went back out on the roads and suddenly our crowds that had been 3, 400 became 1,000. Like, like the impact was almost instantaneous that, that, that people are like, hey, I want to see what this campaign is about. And so there's very little in a campaign that has the potential of a debate to change the underlying dynamic powerfully. And last night, as I said, I don't think anyone had a disqualifying gaffe that killed them. I don't think anyone had a dominant breakout. But I, But I Do think Vivek had the best performance of the night?
- [16:28]
Senator Ted Cruz
I agree with you. And is that because we didn't know him? I mean, it's easier for people to go notice you if they haven't seen you before. Everybody else on stage, people had kind of seen. I thought it was one of those moments where it's like, oh, I noticed you now in the room, and you look like. I think part of it was this. He looked like he was genuinely having fun and happy to be there.
- [16:48]
Ben Ferguson
He was having a blast. The two people who had the most fun on that stage were Vivek and Chris Christie. And listen, Christie has the advantage. He's done this before, and it's just different when you've done it before. He was the one least scared to be there, and he walked out on that stage, and his objective is to beat the crap out of Donald Trump, and he's just gonna stand there and just pound Trump, and that's. That's what he's decided to do. And he was having fun with it. Vivek is smart, and he. I'm sure he was nervous, but he seemed very relaxed. It was actually impressive to be. To come across as relaxed as he. As he did, given what surely were the nerves he was feeling. Now, you asked about the prep session. So everyone prepares differently. Often people prepare by. They will sit down and do a moot, and they will get other people to play the other candidates. And that can be. We did a little bit of it at the beginning, but that's not actually how we did our principal preparation. So fairly early on our debate prep, we would typically spend at least a full day and sometimes two full days preparing for a debate. And we just block the time off and not be out campaigning, not doing fundraisers, just be locked in a conference room. And I treated debate prep the same way I treated Supreme Court oral arguments. So I've argued nine cases in front of the Supreme Court. I've done a lot of oral argument preps. And sort of like for a Supreme Court oral argument, many people do moots where you stand up and have people pretend to be Supreme Court justices and ask questions. And I've done a lot of those. But actually, particularly as I did more and more arguments, I tended to favor getting really, really smart people in the room and then talking through, okay, what do we want to do? So let me address it from the Supreme Court perspective first and then apply it to the debate. So for a Supreme Court oral argument, I'd have a really smart team of lawyers, Supreme Court Advocates, experienced constitutional lawyers sitting around the table. And I'd be. One question I would always ask is, all right, what are our must raise points? What are the points where if, when my argument is done and I sit down, I have not said, I'm going to kick myself, I'm going to be like, you idiot, you had to say this point. And so I would go into any oral argument with a one pager of typically three to five must raise points that I thought were the most important points. They were what I wanted the justices to hear and know, and I was going to make sure to make them. That's part of debate prep, figuring out, okay, what are the points that are most important for you to say? Another part of debate prep is what's your strategy? And they're different times. So I'll tell you how we would approach it. We would talk about whether you want to. How vigorously you want to engage with other candidates on the stage. And that depends on strategically and tactically you are. There were debates where we said, okay, we're gonna mix it up. We're gonna. And the analogy we always used is, we're gonna scrape some paint off the doors, we're gonna get out in a demolition derby and mix it up and take some shots and have some shots back and forth. And that there are times when you need to do that. I think the DeSantis camp expected the other candidates to be coming at him, and they really mixing it up a little, and they didn't. So so much like Sherlock Holmes. Some of what was interesting about the debate were the dogs that didn't bark. Very few of the candidates attacked Ron DeSantis. And so I think all of the other people on that stage view to Santas as their principal impediment. But. But they really didn't go after him directly. What is interesting also is very few of the candidates went after Donald Trump. It was actually fascinating.
- [20:53]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [20:54]
Ben Ferguson
How little Trump's name was said in that room. Look, the Guy's got a 30, 40 point lead in the polls. And yet, now, look, you have some exceptions. Chris Christie, whatever, you know, you ask him what time of day it is. The time is Trump is terrible. Okay, fine, that's what Christie's gonna say. But the other candidates, Desantis, if he criticized Trump, I don't remember it. It wasn't much of anything. Vivek, I can't remember any criticism of Trump at all.
- [21:25]
Senator Ted Cruz
No. He said he was the best president of the 21st century. He was making it very clear from the beginning. I'M not here to make Trump supporters hate me.
- [21:33]
Ben Ferguson
I think that's right. And a lot of people have speculated that the role Vivek is doing is being something of a stalking horse for Trump. And I don't know if that's true or not, but he was certainly full throatedly defending Trump. Look, I remember back to 2016, and there were portions of the debates early on where I made a conscious decision not to go at Trump, not to vigorously engage Trump. And Trump and I, early in the primary had a very good relationship, a very friendly relationship. It drove the media crazy because they wanted me to blast him and I wasn't doing that. There were later stages in the debate. Look, when it came down to basically a two man battle between me and Trump, both he and I took the gloves off and began smacking the hell out of each other. And it changed based on where the race was and who the relative players are. I thought it was interesting that almost nobody was trying to prosecute a case, number one, that they have a stronger record than Trump. So DeSantis made the case that he had a great record as Florida, but he had very little comparative of his record versus Trump's, which I expected more of that in the debate. And almost nobody other than, again, Christie made the case that they had a better chance of winning than Trump. I guess Nikki Haley did too. Yeah, but Haley is running for the moderate establishment lane. And so the argument she was making was not, it wasn't surprising, but, but I found it interesting how little of that we, we saw on Wednesday night.
- [23:20]
Senator Ted Cruz
The, the biggest shock for me was honestly the, the lack of, of distinguishing one candidate from the other. And that's something that you did a very good job of back in 2016, was making it clear who you were as a candidate walking away from last night. I don't feel like any of these candidates really left an impression of how I am very different or unique from the others on the stage. I mean, there was, there were moments, yes, where it was like, for example, where Vivek, you know, proudly raised his hand and said he would support Donald Trump as a nominee even if he was, you know, convicted. That was one of those moments. And, and then you saw. Which was turned into a meme. It's been all over the Internet over the last two days of the other candidates trying to figure out what they're going to do. And it was probably bad timing because for our bad placement for Desantis, because he's right next to him and you see DeSantis look to his right, look to his left. And. And he's like, okay. Everybody else raised their hand. I'll raise mine halfway too, as well. That didn't look good for him.
- [24:21]
Ben Ferguson
DeSantis hesitated. And that hesitation was not a good moment. That is, others are going to use that against him. The hesitation, what I actually thought, one of the most interesting moments of the debate happened right after that, where Vivek came back and said, and he said it to Pence. He said, if I'm elected, I will pardon Donald Trump. Will you do the same? And I gotta tell you, I was surprised. And I think it was a strategic mistake by every other candidate on that stage not to respond. Hell yes. Like, the answer should have been, absolutely. I will pardon Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. Why? Because this prosecution is an abuse of power. This is Merrick Garland and Joe Biden who don't trust the voters. They are abusing the justice system. These indictments are a sham and the voters ought to decide. And so if I'm elected, we're going to end this abuse of power. And even if a candidate on that stage despises Donald Trump, that was a, it was a hanging curveball. And I was genuinely surprised that nobody took that opportunity because that was a moment to shine and nobody jumped on it.
- [25:48]
Senator Ted Cruz
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- [27:41]
Ben Ferguson
Well, I think each of the candidates is going to come out in a different place. For the candidates that didn't gain momentum, they're going to feel a greater urgency. Look, the next debate is going to have a higher threshold, a higher threshold of polling to get in, a higher threshold of donors. I expect the next debate to have fewer candidates on the stage. I suspect at least two of the candidates who were there on Wednesday night will not be there at the next debate. When you're not gaining traction, it impacts every part of the campaign. It impacts your large dollar fundraising. Donors are following this. And if they think you have momentum, they're excited and eager to write a check. And if they think you don't have momentum, suddenly the money dries up. The small dollar fundraising, I mean, it is an amazing when people are energized, when you've got grassroots activists that are really exciting. Look, I got to tell you, towards the end of my campaign in 2016, we had online over a million bucks a day coming in. And it was, people were just excited. They went to my website, they contributed, and we ended up raising $92 million, which is still to date the most money any Republican has ever raised. In the history of presidential primaries, we raised more than George W. Bush or Mitt Romney or John McCain. When you've got momentum, it rolls aggressively, but it unrolls just as vigorously. And so for the candidates that didn't have a moment that energized their supporters, they're going to find when they're out on the trail, their crowds are smaller. They go to an event. And maybe last week they had 50 people and tomorrow they have 25. And that can be a hard look. If you remember one hard moment in 2016 when Jeb Bush won his campaign, towards the end, he was giving a talk and he said, and people were not responding and he said Please clap. Yeah. And it was. That can be really tough. But, like, momentum is real in a campaign, and when it's with you, it feels great. And when it's going away, it sucks. And different candidates from Wednesday night are feeling the good and the bad of that. And each debate, it kind of ratchets up another level. It's sort of like, you know, it's sort of like different rounds of March Madness with the playoff. As it gets to the next level, the stakes keep going up and up.
- [30:22]
Senator Ted Cruz
If you're Donald Trump, do you continue with this? I'm not showing up for the debates. Based on what you just saw, would you show up for the next one or would you say, hell, no.
- [30:32]
Ben Ferguson
Absolutely, he will skip the next debate. I think it's 100%. From his perspective, from his campaign's perspective, skipping it was a complete win. What could have changed it? You remember in 2016, he skipped the Iowa debate.
- [30:46]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [30:47]
Ben Ferguson
And he was mad. He was mad at Megyn Kelly, and he skipped the Iowa debate. And then the Iowa caucus happened, and I beat him. He didn't skip the next debate. If you see an electoral result that. That is. That is not good for your side, that then you change your path. From Trump's perspective, why would he change? This was. It was a calculated gamble. If someone had had a breakout moment on Wednesday, if someone had sizzled and gained a ton of momentum, you could see the Trump team re evaluating. If Ron Desantis had clearly been in a different league from everyone else and made clear that he's the principal alternative to Trump and people had rallied behind DeSantis, that could have caused the Trump team to reevaluate. If someone else had had a moment that just lit everything. If someone had made an indictment, and I don't mean an indictment in the legal sense, but a political indictment of Trump had prosecuted the case that they would be a better nominee to win in November and lead the country than Trump, if someone had really lit it up, you could imagine the Trump team saying, okay, you need to get on that stage and fight back against so and so. I didn't see anything on Wednesday that's going to cause them to reevaluate. And so I think unless and until something changes significantly, my expectation is Trump is not showing up at any of these debates.
- [32:21]
Senator Ted Cruz
Well, the good news is if you had a bad night in the debate stage, 20 hours later, no one was talking about you. If you had a good night on the debate stage, the bad news for you is no one was talking about you afterwards. Because of Donald Trump having to head down to Georgia, not only do we have, for the first time in history, a president who has an actual mug shot, which they has now become probably the most iconic political picture in history. People are already selling shirts with it and hats with it. It's actually hysterical. But Donald Trump also came out after this happened, after he turned himself in, and this is what he had to say as he was about to get on the plane leaving Atlanta.
- [33:02]
Donald Trump
It's a very sad day for America. This should never happen. If you challenge an election, you should be able to challenge an election. I thought the election was a rigged election, a stolen election, and I should have every right to do that. As you know, you have many people that you've been watching over the years do the same thing, whether it's Hillary Clinton or Stacey Abrams or many others. When you have that great freedom to challenge, you have to be able to. Otherwise you can have very dishonest elections. What has taken place here is a travesty of justice. We did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong, and everybody knows it. I've never had such support. And that goes with the other ones, too. What they're doing is election interference. They're trying to interfere with an election. There's never been anything like it in our country before. This is their way of campaigning. And this is one instance. But you have three other instances. Election interference. So I want to thank you for being here. We did nothing wrong at all. And we have every right, every single right to challenge an election that we think is dishonest. That we think it's very dishonest. So thank you all very much, and I'll see you very soon. Thank you very much.
- [34:11]
Senator Ted Cruz
President was pretty cool, calm and collected. His mug shot, he looked like he was pretty irritated. I can imagine why. This, to me, was one of those moments where I'm still in shock by it, honestly. Like, I'm not shocked at what the left has done. But I. When I see this happen, this is when I say the Democratic Party is dead. They're now communists and socialists. This has been in a republic ask. I still cannot believe that the rest of the world, and this does make me very angry, is now watching as America is losing its way in indicting a former president. How is this not one election interference? And how big of a fall is this for this country in general?
- [34:51]
Ben Ferguson
Look, Trump is exactly right in what he said there. This is blatant election interference. This is partisan and political. The Democrats, both at the federal level and state level, hate Donald Trump, they're blinded by their rage and they're using the justice system. Listen, in this podcast, we've discussed at great length each of the four indictments. And so you can go back and listen to earlier podcasts if you want an analysis of each of them, because we've broken them down on a level that you can't get on CNN or CBS or ABC or NBC. And all of them, I think, are garbage. They are partisan and political, particularly when you put it in the broader framework, which is that our country is more than two centuries old. We've never previously indicted a President of the United States, a former President of the United States, a major candidate for President of the United States. And in less than a year, the Democrats have done so four separate times. And you use the phrase banana republic, that's what this is. They, the Democrats don't trust the voters. The reason they're indicting Donald Trump over and over again is they're afraid he could win in November, and they want to use the legal system to hurt him. And I think it is absolutely outrageous. I will say also, look, there are a lot of things that you and I and many people like about Donald Trump. One of the things I like is that he's got enormous guts and he's willing to fight the media, he's willing to fight the Democrats. One of the things which I also respect is the guy is a marketing and branding genius. And I gotta say, just the timing of, number one, you have a debate of all of his rivals, and he simultaneously does an interview with Tucker Carlson on Twitter or on X, whatever it's called. That was a very strong and effective move. Number two, the day after the debate, he promptly goes and turns himself in and has his mugshot released. That was an even stronger move. And then, number three, he returns to Twitter and his first tweet is a tweet of his mugshot, which basically broke Twitter. That combination sucks all of the energy out of every other candidate. And listen, one challenge that every candidate in this race not named Donald J. Trump faces is the difficulty of driving even 10 seconds of discussion or narrative, because Trump, by design, seizes and dominates the discussion. And I think the last 24 hours are as good an illustration of it as we've ever seen.
- [37:43]
Senator Ted Cruz
I laugh because the Babylon Bee put up pictures of everybody on stage last night, said Republicans gathered a debate who will lose to Trump in a distant second. And then you see what he did and how smart he was with this. If you're Donald Trump and it's like play stupid games, win stupid prizes for the Democrats. I'm referencing that. It's like, if you guys keep doing this, you seem to just be helping Donald Trump. Now, there's also many Democrats go, yeah, that's exactly what we want. We want Donald Trump to get the nomination. We're not stupid. We know exactly what we're doing when we indict him. Could this be one of the 100% the Democrats.
- [38:22]
Ben Ferguson
Yes, look, 100% the Democrats want Trump to get the nomination. 100%, the corporate media wants Trump to get the nomination. They believe he cannot win in November. I don't think that's right. I think Trump absolutely can win in November. Now. I think he can lose also. We're a very polarized country and it's clear there are a lot of voters that love Trump and a lot of voters that hate Trump. And so I don't know what happens in a general, but I think in the ecosphere, the bubble that is the left wing, that is Democrats in the media, everyone they know thinks Donald Trump is Hitler. And so they want him to be the nominee if he ends up winning in November. I have to say, the meltdown we saw in 2016, the Rachel Maddows of the world basically having a nervous breakdown on television, I think would be utterly dwarfed by the reaction. If Trump wins again in November, we'll see what happens. But I gotta say, the media desperately want him to be the nominee.
- [39:28]
Senator Ted Cruz
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- [42:02]
Ben Ferguson
Yeah, look, we are in uncharted territory. The short answer is nobody knows. This has never happened before. I think there is a very real chance we will see one or more trials between now and November. And I think there is a very real chance, particularly in D.C. in New York or in Atlanta, I think we could see convictions. We've talked about how the judges and or the juries in those respective places are not favorable. I don't expect the convictions to be upheld on appeal, but the appeals could take years. And so I think there is a very real risk that we get to November of next year and Trump will have endured a trial and have been convicted and the matter will not be resolved on appeal. What happens when you're convicted of a crime? It varies. Sometimes your sentence will be stayed pending the appeal, sometimes it won't. I would anticipate that no one would try to incarcerate or no one would succeed in incarcerating Trump before the appeal had run its course. But, but look, these wild eyed prosecutors, actually when I said no one would try, as soon as I said that, I didn't really believe that because they're brazen enough, I think they would try. I think the odds are decent. The appellate courts would say, no, we're not going to let Trump go to prison while the appeal is pending. We're going to wait to resolve the appeal. That's what I would expect. But this is uncharted territory. And by the way, there's nothing in the law that prevents a candidate for president being incarcerated in jail. There's nothing in the law that prevents the Republican nominee or the Democrat nominee for president being incarcerated and in prison. There's nothing in the law that prevents the sitting President of the United States from being incarcerated. Now, the Secret Service would have an aneurysm. I don't know how that would actually mechanically work if you have the sitting President of the United States in Sing Sing next to murderers. That's part of why this is such uncharted territory. I don't think that will happen. But as I said, I do think there's a real risk of a conviction, a trial and a conviction before election Day. All right, I want to ask you something, Ben.
- [44:28]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [44:29]
Ben Ferguson
So the mug shot. The mug shot is going to be an iconic picture. And Trump obviously has an expression of pissed off, angry badass. It's a different approach. If you remember different presidential or political mug shots. If you remember Rick Perry, if you remember Tom delay.
- [44:51]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah.
- [44:51]
Ben Ferguson
Both of them were indicted.
- [44:53]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yep.
- [44:53]
Ben Ferguson
Both of them had mug shots, and both of them took the same approach, which is they grinned, they smiled widely, like a political headshot. And my question to you is, should Trump have smiled or should he have looked as pissed off as he was? And I don't think there's an absolute clear answer. I have an inclination. But I'm curious what you think.
- [45:17]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, I think that exactly how he took that picture is exactly why he should. Because one of the things that's going viral and this actually has happened while we've been recording is somebody I know put that picture up underneath it, all capital letters, legend. And it's now gone to, like, 280, 000 retweets. This is going to be on. I mean, there's now. There's like 15 people since we've been doing this, taping this, that have put out T shirts that say, rockstar Legend. You know, I stand with him. I think this was the perfect look of. Watch me now. You think it was four years of me trying to drain the swamp. You have no idea what's coming for you, Washington. I would have played it this way. I think it's a brilliant mug shot for him.
- [46:00]
Ben Ferguson
Well, it's why he has the media and marketing and branding instincts that he does. And you're right, it's going viral and it's making a heck of a statement.
- [46:10]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, Legend is the one that just made me laugh. I was like, yep, that's the one. They're gonna, these, these will be at the next Trump rally, and there'll be vendors out there selling this mug shot on every T shirt they can get their hat on.
- [46:22]
Ben Ferguson
And by the way, by the way, do you remember with the first indictment, the Alvin Bragg indictment, where the Trump team was saying they wanted a mug shot? I think they had decided that this, that was. And by the way, the Alvin Bragg one, which seems like a long time ago. It was the first indictment. We said on verdict at the time Trump will go up 10 points in the polls in the primary. And that's exactly what happened. We predicted it when the Bragg indictment came down. And I think the Trump campaign was disappointed they didn't get a mug shot there. And so, ironically, I think they're very happy to have the mug shot now.
- [46:59]
Senator Ted Cruz
All right, I'm going to ask you this question. Another prediction then. When the polls come out, post debate, post this, this indictment mug shot, who moves up the most? And, and, and, and does Trump get even higher in the polls than he is now?
- [47:12]
Ben Ferguson
I don't know that Trump goes materially higher, although, I mean, he's, he's at a pretty dominant position right now. My guess is Ramaswamy up the most. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pick up four or five points. Wouldn't surprise me to see Nikki Haley pick up three points. Wouldn't surprise me to see Pence pick up one or two points. And that probably comes mostly at the expense of DeSantis, maybe some at the expense of Tim Scott and maybe a little bit at the expense of Trump, but I'm not sure. I kind of feel like the people on that stage are fishing in a different pond than Trump is.
- [47:53]
Senator Ted Cruz
Yeah, no doubt about it. Don't forget, we do this show Monday, Wednesday and Friday. So make sure you hit that follow and or subscribe button. And on those days when we don't publish. We've never said this before, and we probably should have said it more. I do a podcast, Ben Ferguson podcast. Make sure you download that. Wherever you get your podcast is. I do have a unique podcast on the, on those days in between. So if you're looking for something to keep you updated in between our Monday, Wednesday and Friday, make sure you download the Ben Ferguson podcast as well. And we will see you back here in a couple of days.