Podcast
The 7investing Podcast
Hosted by 7investing · EN
Welcome to 7investing.com. Our mission is to empower you to invest in your future. This podcast brings our market-based experts together to discuss our investing process and important news. Once a month, we will also feature interviews with some of the best minds in business and investing. Check out 7investing.com to find more of our free content and premium monthly stock recommendations.
21episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Upstart Q2 Earnings: The AI Company Disrupting The $1 Trillion Lending Market
1w ago00:24:35Tap to summarizeSimon Erickson and Heather Horton break down Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) Q2 2026 earnings, released the day before this live stream. New CEO Paul Gu, one of the company's original co-founders, posted his own recap directly on X just 100 days into the role, a move Simon highlights as a sign the company is finally learning to speak Wall Street's language rather than getting lost in the weeds of its AI credit models. Upstart uses proprietary AI models, drawing on more than 1,000 data points instead of a traditional FICO score, to originate consumer loans in a lending market Simon describes as worth more than a trillion dollars.The episode covers total loan originations of $4.2 billion, up 50% year over year across 558,000 loans, along with a breakdown of unsecured personal loan growth versus a rapidly scaling auto and home loan business. Simon and Heather also walk through Upstart's contribution profit, total net revenue, and its return to GAAP net income for the quarter, along with the company's newly reaffirmed three-year growth targets through 2028. They close with a discussion of Upstart's pending federal banking charter and what that could mean for how the company funds future loans.🔗 Free 7investing trial: https://7investing.com/subscribeStocks MentionedPublicly Traded:Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST)#7investing #SimonErickson #Upstart #UPST #AIstocks #FintechStocks #EarningsReport #StockAnalysis #ArtificialIntelligence
Transcribe →SpaceX Stock Analysis: Space, AI & Starlink | Would We Buy the Dip After Record IPO?
1w ago00:28:33Tap to summarize47 days after SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO — the largest in history — Simon Erickson and Heather Horton dig into whether the stock is a buy now that shares have pulled back from their post-IPO highs. Learn about SpaceX's origin story, Elon Musk's Mars mission, and how the company slashed launch costs from over $18,000 per kilogram down to under $1,000. Simon breaks down SpaceX's three business divisions — Space, AI (xAI/Grok), and Connectivity (Starlink) — and explains why a 75x trailing revenue valuation, upcoming lockup expirations, and the $60 billion Cursor AI acquisition make this a "buyer beware" situation for investors.🔗 Free 7investing trial: https://7investing.com/subscribeThis is Part 1 of a multi-part SpaceX series on 7investing Live, streaming every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 10 AM ET.Stocks MentionedPublicly Traded:Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) — mentioned re: GPUs powering SpaceX's data centersAT&T (NYSE:T) — mentioned as a Starlink alternativeVerizon (NYSE:VZ) — mentioned as a Starlink alternativeSpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)Private/Not Publicly Traded:xAI (SpaceX division)Starlink (SpaceX division)Cursor AI (acquired by SpaceX)AnthropicOpenAIChaptersTime Chapter0:50 Welcome to 7investing Live2:21 SpaceX's Record $75B IPO4:44 SpaceX's Origin Story & Elon's Mars Mission6:51 How SpaceX Slashed Launch Costs9:57 Why SpaceX Isn't Just About Profit10:32 SpaceX's Three Business Divisions12:25 Space Division: Rockets & Launches13:42 AI Division: xAI, Grok & the Colossus Data Center15:42 Connectivity Division: Starlink17:45 Buyer Beware: Is SpaceX Overvalued?18:41 Lockup Expirations Explained19:34 Elon's Voting Power & the Tesla Comparison20:12 The $60B Cursor AI Acquisition22:33 SpaceX's Massive Capital Expenditures27:12 What's Next: Part 2 Preview#7investing #SimonErickson #SpaceX #ElonMusk #Starlink #xAI #IPOStocks #StockMarket #SpaceStocks #InvestingTips
Transcribe →Is SoundHound Stock (SOUN) About to Short Squeeze? | 7investing Live
1w ago00:29:14Tap to summarizeSimon Erickson breaks down how a short squeeze works and why SoundHound AI stock (NASDAQ: SOUN) may be setting up for one right now. Learn what short interest and days-to-cover really mean, how these metrics predicted Upstart Holdings' (NASDAQ: UPST) 220% run in 2023, and why SoundHound's current 41.6% short interest and 5.8 days-to-cover ratio look strikingly similar. Simon Erickson and executive producer Heather Horton also discuss SoundHound's conversational AI platform, its 99% year-over-year revenue growth, upcoming Q2 earnings on August 5th, and whether short squeeze investing is right for the average investor.Simon also shares why SoundHound AI ranked #3 on 7investing's Best Buys list for July and how you can see the full rankings.🔗 Free 7investing trial: https://7investing.com/subscribeStocks MentionedPublicly Traded:SoundHound AI (NASDAQ:SOUN)Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST)Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)SoundHound customers:Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Hyundai Motor Company (KRX:005380) SoundHound customerHonda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC) Private/Not Publicly Traded:Jersey Mike'sTorchy's TacosAmelia (acquired by SoundHound AI)Chapters0:00 Welcome to 7investing Live0:40 Today's Topic: What Is a Short Squeeze?1:58 Defining Short Interest4:44 Defining Days to Cover7:02 Case Study: Upstart Holdings (UPST) in 20238:50 Today's Candidate: SoundHound AI (SOUN)9:16 SoundHound's Conversational AI Business12:00 SoundHound's Short Interest & Days-to-Cover Data15:03 SoundHound Ranks #3 on 7investing's Best Buys16:53 Q&A: Why Is SoundHound Being Punished?19:03 How to Play a Short Squeeze Stock20:02 What Catalyst Could Trigger the Squeeze?22:46 Is This Strategy Right for Average Investors?23:43 Fundamentals vs. Technical Analysis27:54 Wrap-Up & Next Show Preview#7investing #SimonErickson #SoundHoundAI #SOUNStock #ShortSqueeze #StockMarket #AIStocks #ShortInterest #SmallCapStocks #StockAnalysis⚠️ This is not investing advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Transcribe →Small Caps Are Crushing the S&P 500 in 2026 | Russell 2000's Best Start Since 1991 | 7investing Live
3w ago00:23:29Tap to summarizeEveryone calls the S&P 500 "the market." But is it really? In this episode of 7investing Live, founder and CEO Simon Erickson breaks down what the market actually is in 2026, and why the benchmark you're using matters more than you think. There are roughly 5,600 companies listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ, yet just 500 of them make up 80% of the total US market value and the top 10 stocks alone now account for a staggering 36.4% of the S&P 500 index.Simon walks through the numbers behind today's market concentration: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sitting at the top as a nearly $5 trillion company, the S&P 500's $69 trillion total market cap, and why the index now rises and falls with Big Tech and the AI trade. Then the conversation turns to the more surprising story of 2026: the Russell 2000 small-cap index is up 20.7% year-to-date, nearly double the S&P 500's return, marking its best first half since 1991 and its widest margin of outperformance over the large-cap index since 2001.What's driving the rotation? Simon and Heather dig into mega-cap fatigue, stretched valuations for companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), the worst performer of the top 10 constituents, down 20% this year, 40%+ forecasted earnings growth for small caps, and the under-the-radar AI infrastructure plays like Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) hiding in the small-cap fish pond. Plus, a preview of later this week: three small-cap ideas with 20-bagger potential.0:00 - Welcome and 7investing Overview2:00 - Large-Cap Dominance: A closer look at the S&P 5007:02 - The Entire Market: An Introduction to the Russell 3000 Index8:32 - A Small-Cap Index: An Introduction to the Russell 200010:56 - Why are Small Caps Outperforming in 2026?13:40 - Returns of the Top 10 Companies in the S&P 50016:50 - Q&A: Investor behavior and risk toleranceWant to see all of our official stock recommendations? Visit 7investing.com/subscribe and get your first 7 days of premium access completely freePublicly Traded Companies Mentioned:NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG)Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B)Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO)Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE)Indexes/ETFs referenced: S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 3000, Russell 2000 (IWM)Private / Pre-IPO Companies Mentioned:OpenAIAnthropicHashtags#7investing #SimonErickson #SP500 #Russell2000 #smallcapstocks #stockmarket #investing #stocks #NVIDIA #bigtech #AIstocks #marketanalysis
Transcribe →Prediction Markets Explained: Kalshi & Polymarket's $40B Boom — Which Stocks Win?
3w ago00:38:04Tap to summarizePrediction markets are taking the financial world by storm. Kalshi and Polymarket have gone from under $1 billion in combined monthly trading volume to over $40 billion in just one year, a 30X explosion fueled by the World Cup, the NFL, elections, and even bets on AI milestones. In this episode of 7investing Live, Simon Erickson is joined by Brett Schafer and Ryan Henderson of the Chit Chat Stocks podcast to break down what this meteoric rise means for investors.We dig into how prediction markets actually work: peer-to-peer event contracts regulated by the CFTC, take rates of just 0.7-1.5% versus the 7-10% cut traditional sportsbooks capture, and why that efficiency gap could be a massive disruption threat to online sports betting giants like DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT). We also explore which brokerages stand to benefit; Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) are racing to bring event contracts onto their platforms, and whether derivatives exchange CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), now trading near its cheapest valuation in a decade, is being unfairly punished by the market.Plus: the ethical concerns around insider trading and political betting, the coming regulatory showdown between the states and federal government, and our panel's picks when forced to choose between Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings at today's valuations.0:00 - Introduction to Prediction Markets and Chit Chat Stocks1:56 - Predicting the Winner of the 2026 World Cup3:26 - Prediction Market Trading Volumes and the Growth Drivers8:28 - Overview of Kalshi and Polymarket and how they differ from Casinos and Online Sports Betting12:03 - Impact to Brokerages: Robinhood and Interactive Brokers14:07 - Controversial Topics: Government-related events and cracking down on bad behaviors16:19 - The shifting role of state-based and Federal regulations18:32 - DraftKings and the scalability of consumer-facing platforms26:15 - Robinhood and Interactive Brokers and the upside for brokerages29:02 - Closing Game! Which stock would you invest in: Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket, or DraftKings? Publicly Traded Companies Mentioned:Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR)Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD)DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG)Flutter Entertainment / FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT)CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE)Spotify (NYSE:SPOT)Boeing (NYSE:BA)Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META)Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL)SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)Private / Pre-IPO Companies Mentioned:Kalshi (~$22B valuation, Series F)Polymarket (~$15B valuation)AnthropicFiscal AIWant to see all of our official stock recommendations? Visit https://7investing.com/subscribe get your first 7 days of premium access completely freeFind more of Brett and Ryan's stock research at chitchatstocks.substack.comand www.youtube.com/@UCG5Ni-SI-jyrEsoNUhqftNQ Hashtags#7investing #SimonErickson #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #DraftKings #InteractiveBrokers #Robinhood #stocks #investing #sportsbetting #stockmarket
Transcribe →Rocket Lab & Netflix Deep Dive | Cerebras vs. NVIDIA: The $30 Billion AI Inference Battle
3w ago00:43:11Tap to summarizeIs Cerebras Systems the next great AI chip stock or a red-hot IPO priced for perfection? In this episode of 7investing Live, Simon Erickson and executive producer Heather Horton welcome back Nick Rossolillo, co-founder of Chip Stock Investor, to break down three of the market's biggest stories.First up: Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS), the wafer-scale chip maker that just IPO'd at a $40+ billion market cap. With 44GB of SRAM embedded directly on the chip, Cerebras was purpose-built to solve AI's "memory wall" problem for inference workloads. Now it's reportedly landed a ~$10 billion order from OpenAI and a deal with Amazon Web Services that could top $20 billion. Simon and Nick dig into whether these massive orders are real, how Cerebras stacks up against NVIDIA's GPUs and hyperscaler custom silicon, the TSMC capacity bottleneck that could throttle its growth, and how to value a company trading near 20x sales without profits.Then the conversation turns to Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), which has pulled back from $150 to around $70 per share. Simon shares the latest iteration of his discounted cash flow valuation, and the duo debates the proposed Iridium acquisition — a deal that could pull Rocket Lab to EBITDA-positive on a pro forma basis — plus what the long-awaited Neutron rocket launch means for the company's future.Finally: Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). After another quarter of decelerating revenue guidance, is the streaming giant now a value stock rather than a growth stock? Nick explains why the advertising business hasn't reaccelerated growth the way he expected, and what he'd need to see before buying the dip.Plus: Nick's take on the recent chip stock sell-off across NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, SanDisk, and Kioxia and why "stocks go up, stocks go down" might be the healthiest way to think about it.Subscribe for more deep dives on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and innovative growth stocks!Start your FREE 7-day trial of 7investing: https://www.7investing.com/subscribeFollow Nick and Casey Rossolillo at Chip Stock Investor: https://chipstockinvestor.comRocket Lab Deep Dive videos mentionedPart 1 https://youtu.be/AMDd0-JKUH0 (Deep Dive)Part 2: https://youtu.be/Z76xTGFNwBA (Valuation)Companies MentionedPublicly Traded:Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS)Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB)Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD)Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO)Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM)Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META)Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM)SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK)Kioxia Holdings (TSE:285A)Globalstar (NASDAQ:GSAT)SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)Private / Pre-IPO:OpenAIAnthropicVideos Mentioned:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z76xTGFNwBA&t=3shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMDd0-JKUH0&t=987sHere's the shifted chapter list, with all timestamps moved back 55 seconds:0:00 Welcome to 7investing Live0:54 Cerebras Systems: IPO recap & the Wafer-Scale Engine2:31 Is NVIDIA even the right comparison for Cerebras?5:38 The memory wall: why bigger AI models need new chips8:52 Latency vs. throughput — and the new AI alliances10:46 Are the $10B OpenAI & $20B Amazon orders real?14:02 Cerebras risks: how do you value a hot IPO?17:27 The TSMC capacity bottleneck20:01 Heather's take on Cerebras20:41 Rocket Lab: the sell-off & Iridium acquisition24:34 Simon's DCF valuation & price target for RKLB29:05 Why Neutron changes everything30:12 Q&A: Does Peter Beck carry an "Elon premium"?31:36 Netflix: buying opportunity or cheap for a reason?36:57 Q&A: Is Netflix a growth stock or a value stock?39:03 Chip stocks selling off: normal volatility or a warning?42:57 Wrap-up & final thoughts#7investing #Simonerickson #Cerebras #CBRS #NVIDIA #AIinvesting #semiconductors #chipstocks #RocketLab #RKLB #Netflix #NFLX #AIinference #stocks #investing #stockmarket #TSMC #AIdatacenters
Transcribe →Arqit Quantum (NASDAQ:ARQQ): Is This $500M Micro-Cap the Best Play on Post-Quantum Cryptography?
Jun 2900:24:25Tap to summarizeWant access to all our investing content? Join at 7investing.com/subscribe Join the conversation on the 7investing discord: https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSEvery federal agency in the United States must be quantum-safe by December 2030. That NIST mandate is the starting gun for one of the most under-the-radar investment themes in the market, and Arqit Quantum Inc. (NASDAQ:ARQQ) is positioning itself directly in its path. Simon Erickson and Heather Horton dig into this $500 million micro-cap, its turbulent history, and why it might be one of the most intriguing early-stage ideas on the 7investing watch list.The threat Arqit is solving is real: the encryption that secures virtually all internet traffic today is built on mathematical problems classical computers can't break but quantum computers theoretically can. Arqit's answer is symmetric key encryption (the ARQ19 protocol), delivered through their QuantumCloud platform, which generates real-time quantum-safe encryption keys that a quantum computer couldn't reverse-engineer. Their newest product, Encryption Intelligence, monitors live network traffic for quantum vulnerabilities end-to-end — and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has integrated it into their accelerator hardware as a channel partner.The backstory is messy and worth knowing. Arqit raised $400 million in a 2021 SPAC IPO at a $1.4 billion valuation before having a commercial product, on claims from founder David Williams that the technology could secure "every connected device in the world." British cybersecurity researchers disputed those claims, Williams pushed back too hard, and he ultimately stepped down. New CEO Andy Lever, an engineer-turned-operator, has since grounded the company's ambitions in what actually works. The revenue base is tiny: $623,000 in H1 2026, up ~10x from $67,000 in H1 2025. Eleven contracts in place now versus seven for all of fiscal 2025. The math is early-stage but the trajectory is moving in the right direction.Simon isn't going all-in, a founder exit is a red flag worth respecting, and the valuation is built almost entirely on future promise. But Arqit is officially on the 7investing watch list alongside Quantinuum (NASDAQ:QNT), the much larger ~$20 billion quantum computing platform company. For investors willing to take a basket approach across early quantum names, Arqit represents exactly the kind of picks-and-shovels play that tends to produce 10x or 20x returns if you get in early enough in a foundational technology cycle.Stocks & Companies Mentioned:Arqit Quantum Inc. (NASDAQ:ARQQ)Quantinuum (NASDAQ:QNT)IonQ (NYSE:IONQ)Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)#ArqitQuantum #ARQQ #QuantumComputing #PostQuantumCryptography #CybersecurityStocks #QuantumSecurity #MicroCapStocks #GrowthStocks #TechStocks #EarlyStageInvesting #QuantumInvesting #CyberSecurity #StocksToWatch #InvestingIn2026 #7investing #Simonerickson
Transcribe →Is Moore's Law Dead? Cerebras IPO, SpaceX Orbital Data Centers & Huawei Tau Scaling Explained
Jun 2900:42:09Tap to summarizeThree massive semiconductor and computing developments are reshaping the future of AI infrastructure — and 7investing's Simon Erickson sits down with Nick Rossalillo of Chip Stock Investor to break them all down. First up: Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS), which just went public on May 13th at $185/share (~$40 billion valuation) and is now trading near $46 billion at 90x trailing sales. The company's Wafer Scale Engine, a chip that uses an entire silicon wafer rather than individual diced chip, was designed specifically for AI inference workloads that NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs struggle to handle efficiently due to on-chip SRAM limitations. With potential $20 billion in orders from OpenAI and access via AWS, Cerebras is real, but neither Simon nor Nick is buying at this price. Their rule: wait a year before touching a fresh IPO.Next, SpaceX's freshly-raised $75 billion gets put under the microscope, specifically Elon's ambition to build orbital data centers. Nick walks through the SpaceX diagram: 70-meter solar panel wingspan, laser-based networking between compute modules, and the massive engineering challenges around power, heat dissipation, and in-orbit assembly. This isn't imminent, Starlink's next-gen constellation comes first — but if Elon can crack the economics, it would rewrite the rules of data center infrastructure entirely.Finally, Huawei's Tau Scaling announcement: a new architectural approach to chip performance that bypasses the need for extreme ultraviolet lithography (which China can't access due to ASML export controls). Tau temporal scaling focuses on minimizing signal travel time between transistors using logic folding, new materials, and 3D stacking. Huawei claims it could reach 1.5 nanometer equivalent performance by 2031. Simon and Nick are skeptical — 381 chips in six years is not mass production, and TSMC (NYSE:TSM) will be well past that node by then but it's worth watching as China continues building workarounds to Western export restrictions.Whether Moore's Law is dead or simply rerouting, the chipmaking industry is more innovative and more investable than it's been in decades.Join the conversation on the 7investing discord: https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSWant access to all 7investing research? Join at 7investing.com/subscribe Follow Chip Stock Investor @chipstockinvestor and https://chipstockinvestor.com/0:00 - Introduction to 7investing and Chip Stock Investor0:54 - Is Moore's Law Dead? A review of scaling semiconductor manufacturing3:08 - Cerebras Systems' recent IPO. How is their Wafer Scale Engine different than NVIDIA's GPUs, how does this impact Moore's Law, and is the stock a buy today?21:12 - SpaceX's recent IPO. Elon wants to build and launch orbital data centers. How does SpaceX plan to use the $75 billion it raised, what are the challenges it faces, and is the stock a buy?28:16 - Huawei's Tau scaling. Could this new chip architecture make ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography obsolete, and what are its chances of succeeding?39:39 - Outro, final thoughts, and audience questionsStocks & Companies Mentioned:Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS)NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)AMD (NASDAQ:AMD)SpaceX (SPCX)Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company / TSMC (NYSE:TSM)ASE Technology Holding / ASE Group (NYSE:ASX)Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR)ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML)Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT)Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX)Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)Amazon / AWS (NASDAQ:AMZN)Alphabet / Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS)Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930)Huawei — private (Chinese company)OpenAI — privateLuckin Coffee (OTC:LKNCY) — mentioned as cautionary example#Semiconductors #MooresLaw #CerebrasSystems #CBRS #AIChips #NVIDIA #SpaceX #OrbitalDataCenters #HuaweiTech #TauScaling #ChipStocks #AIInvesting #TechStocks #GrowthStocks #StockMarket #InvestingIn2026 #7investing #Simonerickson
Transcribe →CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) Stock Analysis: Why This Hidden Gem Thrives on Market Volatility
Jun 2900:24:24Tap to summarizeWhile the market chases AI stocks and IPOs at 90x sales, Simon Erickson is looking in the opposite direction, at CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a business that doesn't care if markets go up or down. It just needs them to move. CME Group sits at the center of global derivatives trading across six asset classes, interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agriculture, and metals, capturing the bid-ask spread on every contract that clears through its platform. Q1 2026 delivered all-time records in both revenue (up 14% to nearly $2 billion) and average daily volume (36.2 million contracts/day, up 22%), with record volumes across all six product lines simultaneously.0:00 - Introduction and Overview of CME Group as a business3:31 - Review of CME's six product classes 6:41 - Review of Q1 2026 Results (from our 7investing Community Forum)8:42 - Why Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair will be important for CME Group10:48 - New Retail product lines: Crypto, e-mini futures, and even compute pricing14:18 - A look at CME Group's current valuation and why the stock has been selling off16:19 - Why we recently upgraded CME Group to a "Strong Buy" conviction rating 18:32 - Q&A with audience questions + a review of CME Group's capital allocation policiesThe business model is exceptional: near-zero variable costs as volumes scale, massive network effects, and a 70% operating margin in Q1 2026, up 250 basis points year over year. With geopolitical uncertainty (Iran oil prices, Russia/Eastern Europe conflict, China tariff tensions) and a brand new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Walsh navigating rate policy, Simon believes 2026 and 2027 will bring more volatility, not less. That's directly in CME Group's favor. The company is also launching new products including Bitcoin volatility futures, e-mini S&P 500 and NASDAQ options at one-tenth standard contract size (opening the door to retail investors), and a first-of-its-kind AI compute futures product in partnership with Silicon Data Partner.CME Group is also returning serious capital to shareholders: a longstanding variable dividend policy that pays out 50% of annual earnings, plus a $3 billion share repurchase authorization, $500 million of which was deployed just last quarter, with $2.5 billion still available. CEO Terry Duffy is transitioning out after a decade at the helm, handing off to 20-year company veteran Lynn Fitzpatrick (currently President and CFO), in what Simon views as seamless succession planning. This is a company that knows exactly what it is and executes flawlessly.7investing upgraded CME Group to strong buy conviction in November 2024, the stock returned 51% by March 2026, nearly tripling the S&P 500 return over the same period. They've just upgraded it to strong buy again in June 2026. The stock has pulled back significantly from its March highs, and valuation multiples on price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow are all at five-year lows. If you want a stock that hedges against market chaos rather than suffering through it, CME Group is worth a serious look.Discuss CME Group with us in our 7investing Community Forum! https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSStocks & Companies Mentioned:CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) — teased for upcoming Friday episodeKalshi — private (prediction markets competitor)FMX Exchange — private (interest rate futures competitor)FanDuel — private (CME prediction markets partner)Silicon Data Partner — private (CME compute futures partner)#CMEGroup #CME #StockAnalysis #ValueInvesting #DividendStocks #HiddenGems #MarketVolatility #DerivativesTrading #InterestRates #Bitcoin #CryptoFutures #InvestingIn2026 #UndervaluedStocks #GrowthStocks #7investing #Simonerickson
Transcribe →Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) Stock Fell 45% From Its High — Here's What the DCF Model Actually Says
Jun 2900:24:31Tap to summarizeWant access to all our investing content? Join at 7investing.com/subscribe Join the conversation on the 7investing discord: https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSRocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) peaked near $150 a share earlier this year, powered by SpaceX IPO excitement and space sector momentum. Now it's trading at $83. Simon Erickson and Heather Horton revisit the full discounted cash flow model Simon built three weeks ago and walk through the three things that will actually determine where Rocket Lab goes from here.First, and most importantly: Space Systems, not launch, is the real business. The launch vehicle gets all the headlines, but manufacturing satellites and signing long-term contracts with the Space Defense Agency, NASA, and the Department of Defense is what's building Rocket Lab's moat. Total backlog stood at $2.2 billion in Q1 2026, and Simon has already modeled that nearly doubling to $4.3 billion by year-end, an aggressive assumption that he thinks the business can support. By the end of the forecast window (fiscal 2041), space systems could represent 85–90% of total revenue. The launch is just the delivery mechanism.Second: operating leverage is real and accelerating. Rocket Lab is redeploying headcount from R&D into production — meaning their employee base is essentially converting from overhead into cost-of-goods-sold as Neutron approaches the pad. SGNA and R&D headcount both declined even as the business grew in fiscal 2025. This is CFO Adam Spice making a deliberate call that Neutron is no longer an R&D project, it's a product. Gross margin and scalability metrics look unusual right now as a result, but that's a transition signal, not a warning sign.Third: Rocket Lab's cost of capital is about to get a lot cheaper. The company is almost entirely equity-funded right now, which carries a ~10.3% discount rate in Simon's model. But with real assets in the ground, a credible operating history, and convertible debt already in the toolkit, Simon expects Rocket Lab to access debt markets at 5-6% in 2026 and 2027. If the WACC drops from 10.3% to even 8%, it directly and materially boosts the DCF fair value. The $150 price wasn't justified. The $83 price is much more interesting but watch those three variables.Stocks & Companies Mentioned:Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB)SpaceX (NASDAQ — newly IPO'd June 2026)Arqit Quantum (NASDAQ:ARQQ) — teased for upcoming Monday episodeQuantinuum — teased for upcoming Monday episode#RocketLab #RKLB #SpaceStocks #StockAnalysis #DCFValuation #GrowthStocks #SpaceInvesting #NeutronRocket #Starlink #SpaceX #StocksToWatch #InvestingIn2026 #ValueInvesting #TechStocks #7investing #Simonerickson
Transcribe →