All Over The Map: Why the Race Is So Close in the Rust Belt

Summary

CNN Presents – All Over The Map: Why the Race Is So Close in the Rust Belt

Date: October 28, 2024
Host: John King, with producer Ally Molloy
Locations: Milwaukee, WI & Macomb County (Detroit suburbs), MI
Featured Voters: Erik Jones (Wisconsin), Joseph Knowles (Michigan)

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Overview

This episode delves into why the 2024 presidential race is neck-and-neck in the Rust Belt, focusing specifically on Wisconsin and Michigan—two pivotal states that could determine the election's outcome. Host John King and producer Ally Molloy take listeners into the hearts of these communities, interviewing two voters—one a rejuvenated Democratic optimist in Milwaukee, the other a lifelong Democrat-turned Trump supporter recently laid off from a Detroit-area Jeep plant. Through their stories, the episode unpacks the shifting coalitions, economic anxieties, evolving social identities, and how old political assumptions no longer fit the evolving American electorate.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wisconsin: Erik Jones and the Shifting Democratic Mood

• Background: Erik Jones, an entrepreneur in Milwaukee, self-described political science geek, and active community member.
• Current Sentiment: Milwaukee feels more energized for Democrats than in previous cycles. While Erik remains cautious, he senses renewed optimism among Democratic voters, especially after Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
  • “It feels like a photo finish if I ever saw one... The Democratic base is more rejuvenated and a lot more spirited.” (03:10)
• Democratic Turnout Concerns:
  • “Turnout will be better than Clinton [2016]. I feel it has to be Obama level and Biden didn’t get Obama level... So I’m not sure the turnout from last time will be good enough. It’s way too close than it should be.” (07:32)
• Republican Presence: Erik notes a decrease in visible Trump support in his suburb and fewer signs of GOP organizing than expected but acknowledges this might not accurately reflect actual turnout or hidden support.
  • “I don’t really see the number of Trump signs in an affluent part of the county that I thought I would see. Either people are quiet about their support... or there are a lot of undecided people...” (08:56)
• Barbershop Politics:
  • Talks in local barbershops reveal some Black men recall “having more money” under Trump—attributing it to pandemic stimulus checks—but Erik pushes back, emphasizing the importance of policy understanding over emotion and image.
  • “If people are not doing their homework, I feel like that helps Trump because he’s more of an image guy than a substance guy.” (05:34)
• Polarized Ethics, Law, and Faith:
  • Erik highlights contradictions among some Black and law enforcement Trump supporters relating to ethics, Christian identity, and Trump’s criminal convictions.
  • “[The GOP] feels that they have a monopoly over the Christian vote. The Democratic Party feels they have a monopoly over the Black vote... You have this tug of war of ethics. And I’m talking to a police officer and I’m saying, so, officer, you’re telling me to vote for the felon that hasn’t been sentenced yet over the prosecutor?” (11:39)
• Closing Reflection:
  • Erik expresses concern about America’s capacity to “heal” post-election, worried that refusal to accept defeat could deepen national divides.

2. Michigan: Joseph Knowles, Union Worker Turned Trump Voter

• Background: Joseph Knowles, former United Auto Workers member, Jeep plant worker laid off this month. Lifelong Democrat, now supporting Trump.
• Personal Impact:
  • Laid off alongside 1,100 coworkers due to plant cutbacks he attributes to multiple factors: corporate decisions, Biden’s EV mandates, and his union’s leadership.
  • “I help make you billions of dollars a year, but... I will put it on Joe Biden or the Democratic Party because of the EV mandates. I feel like the company would have to invest millions of dollars, billions of dollars into this EV thing and nobody wants it.” (15:35)
• Political Shift:
  • Historically voted Democratic (Kerry, Obama, Clinton, Biden), started re-evaluating in 2022 as he felt the party’s focus shifted away from people like him.
  • “I watched my mom be together with my grandfather, everyone Democrat. So I just thought, this is it. This is where you’re supposed to be... And then, you know, it just, it was just not cautious to be Democrats until like two years ago. And I started seeing the change.” (16:50)
• Reasons for Supporting Trump:
  • Economic Anxiety: Blames inflation, rising cost of essentials, and perceived prioritization of immigrants over citizens for his shift.
    • “I started seeing a lot of immigrants coming into the country... They get money and housing and I seen that get priority. And some of the issues that we was having wasn’t getting looked at.” (17:59)
  • EV Policies: Believes the Democratic push for electric vehicles contributed to his job loss.
  • Trump Relatability: Identifies with Trump being “prosecuted,” feeling both have been treated unfairly.
    • “He started saying how he was going to reverse some of the EV mandates... these are things that hit home. And then when he was going through trial and going to court and getting prosecuted, I know how that feel.” (19:43)
  • Party Vetting Discontent: Frustrated with the Democratic switch to Harris without a primary process—felt the choice was imposed.
  • Trump Promises: Especially attracted to Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on overtime—a huge issue for factory workers.
    • “No tax on that will be perfect. That would change all our lives.” (22:44)
• Social Identity and Pushback:
  • Faces family criticism, especially from women relatives, for backing Trump—but feels compelled by his responsibility as a father and provider.
    • “All I care about right now is how am I going to be able to take care of my wife and kids. That’s the main important thing in my life. That’s the thing that I’m responsible for. And at this point now, I’m desperate. So I’m willing to try anything right now...” (24:13)
  • Asserts he doesn’t consider Trump racist, despite community perceptions.
• Stance on Immigration:
  • Strongly supports Trump’s proposed crackdown on undocumented immigrants, believing job competition and economic pressure are paramount.
    • “If you do it the wrong way, I think you should get round up and just throw it out. I have no problem with that because it jeopardize my way of providing for my kids...” (25:32)
• Ultimately:
  • He’s now an Independent, less interested in party labels, and open to change born out of economic desperation.

3. John King & Ally Molloy: Big Picture Analysis

• Demographics & the Blue Wall:
  • The "blue wall" (WI, MI, PA) used to be solidly Democratic; recent cycles have made these states continual battlegrounds.
  • “They are getting older, they are getting whiter, which tells you they should be getting more Republican. Trump won in 2016 and everybody said, ‘See, I told you so.’... But what has happened since then?... Those states now all have Democratic governors and they’ve made Democratic gains at the legislative level. It’s counterintuitive.” (27:40)
• Union Vote Splitting:
  • Once a Democratic stronghold, the UAW vote is described as now 50/50 between Harris and Trump.
  • Culture wars, social issues (guns, abortion, transgender rights), and union members’ frustrations have eroded the traditional Democratic coalition.
• Identity vs. Issues:
  • Traditional demographic assumptions are breaking down. Black men in the Midwest are not a political monolith, as demonstrated by the differing perspectives of Erik and Joseph.
  • “The biggest trend is the old rules don’t apply, the old labels don’t apply, the old playbook doesn’t apply. Some of it is things are just changing under our feet every day. And some of that’s Trump. He has redefined the Republican Party.” (31:35)
• The Complicated Coalition Math:
  • The electorate’s calculations are fluid: voters like Erik become “calculators” trying to energize their side, while Josephs subtract from the Democratic base and spread their conversion story.
  • “This is the most complicated coalition math of any of these races.” (33:13)
  • Changing education levels, Trump’s inroads with both Black and Latino communities, the Dobbs decision, and the general volatility makes 2024 especially unpredictable.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the Stakes and Division:

• “It’s a cliché, but every vote does count, especially in the battleground states... The math comes down to the moods and votes of voters like these.” — John King (00:59)

Erik Jones on Dem Mood:

• “The Democratic base is more rejuvenated and a lot more spirited. Conversations in the barbershops where before a lot of people thought that the election was a done deal and nobody feels that way anymore.” (03:10)
• “You can’t own a gun. You can’t vote if you’re a felon. You shouldn’t be allowed to be president and have control of the greatest military in the world. If I got a felony and I couldn’t even buy a gun.” (09:57)

Barbershop Ethics:

• “My ethics won’t allow me to vote for a misogynist, racist crook because of certain topics like abortion or things...” — Erik Jones (11:39)

Joseph Knowles' Frustration:

• “All I care about right now is how am I going to be able to take care of my wife and kids... I’m desperate. So I’m willing to try anything right now to make sure that I can fulfill my responsibility.” (24:13)
• “No, he’s not a racist. I haven’t, I don’t. I never thought that Trump was racist... Hey, we’ve been voting the same way with Democrat all our lives and nothing changing. So let’s try something different.” (23:42)

Ally Molloy on Demographics:

• “One of my favorite things about this project is we’ve learned that [boxing people into demographics] is kind of bullshit. We’ve heard from these two men... very, very different politics.” (31:10)

King on Coalition Complexity:

• “Politics, in the end, is the first math we learned. It’s addition and subtraction... But underneath that, the coalition math is changing. I was gonna say has changed so dramatically, it just is changing constantly.” (33:24)

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Major Segment Timestamps

• [00:59] Introduction & context — King in Wisconsin/Michigan
• [01:58] Erik Jones interview starts (Milwaukee, WI)
• [03:10] Jones describes Democratic energy and photo finish
• [05:34] Barbershop debate about Trump’s actual impact and image
• [07:32] Turnout and urgency in Black community
• [11:39] Ethics, law enforcement, Christianity debate re: Trump
• [12:42] Jones’s closing, hopes for national healing
• [14:07] Joseph Knowles interview starts (Macomb County, MI)
• [15:35] Knowles blames layoffs on Stellantis, Biden/EVs, union
• [16:50] Shift from lifeline Democrat to Trump supporter
• [17:59] Immigration and inflation as key motivators
• [19:03] Frustration with Harris replacing Biden, no primary
• [22:44] Trump’s overtime tax pledge resonates with UAW workers
• [23:42] Pushback from Black community/family over Trump support
• [24:13] “Desperate” to provide for his family
• [25:32] Unapologetic support for strict immigration enforcement
• [26:27] Knowles’s closing: wants “someone to help us out”
• [27:23] King & Molloy analysis: blue wall’s demographic confusion
• [28:54] Split among UAW, union vote’s unraveling
• [31:10] Rejecting demographic monoliths
• [33:13] Coalition math, addition/subtraction of votes
• [36:30] Credits & outro

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains a narrative-driven, grounded, and empathetic tone. There is a strong commitment to letting regular voters express their anxieties, loyalties, and contradictions in their own words, with John King and Ally Molloy contextualizing these voices within national trends and political science without condescension. The result is a detailed, nuanced exploration of 2024's battleground unpredictabilities—ultimately, a reminder of both the power and the unpredictability of individual votes in America’s evolving democracy.

Transcript

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@Samsung.Com I'm John King and this is All over the Ma. Today we return to Wisconsin and to Michigan to the outskirts of two once booming midwestern industrial cities. These are both considered must win states for Kamala Harris and the race. Look at the numbers effectively tied in both of them. Today we're going to hear from two voters who've made up their minds about this election. They give you a very clear picture of why this race is anything but easy to call. We're in the final days here now a little over a week out. It's a cliche, but every vote does count, especially in the battleground states. And the math is really complicated, the most complicated in the 10 times I've done this, 10 times I've covered presidential elections. The math comes down to the moods and the votes of voters like these.

[Erik Jones]

The energy is different. It's a lot different from when we were here last time.

[John King]

Erik Jones is an entrepreneur in Milwaukee, does a little bit of real estate, does a few other things as well. We've sat down with him several times over the past year. Eric has an ear to the ground. He's constantly popping up in the community, talking to everybody. This time he asked us to meet him at a bakery and a coffee shop. A new favorite of his, a small black owned business called confectionally yours.

[Erik Jones]

It shows what we like to call here the new Milwaukee. Milwaukee has gotten a lot of negative press and I don't think it really shows the spirit of the city or what's going on.

[John King]

Eric is a Democrat, and he's very much a political science geek. He does my job for me. He's a reporter on the ground there. Interesting in why people think and why they vote the way they do. He sees a city with a bit of divide right now. A new black mayor, a thriving downtown. But where he lives on the north side, the community looks. Feels like it's forgotten. People feel like they've been forgotten. And when we first met him, he was a little pessimistic about things. Now he's much more optimistic. Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate then, and Eric's view was he was in trouble because the community was slumping and people were in bad moods. Now Eric says the city feels better, and because of that, he thinks Harris is going to do better.

[Erik Jones]

It feels like a photo finish if I ever saw one. There's a lot of energy, at least on at least one side. There's a lot of activity, and I think the Democratic base is more rejuvenated and a lot more spirited. Conversations in the barbershops where before a lot of people thought that the election was a done deal and nobody feels that way anymore.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Well, let's break that down some. So is that all the Biden Harris switch? Is it all that?

[Erik Jones]

I believe so. I believe that the dynamic has shifted because in a weird way, Donald Trump was the young guy and he played on the age of President Biden. Now that dichotomy is completely switched. I think the Vance selection was more to rile up his base because he thought he had it, and he doesn't have it anymore. The energy of his supporters is different, and I think they know it, that it's not in the bag the way it was before.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So if I were here after the Biden Trump debate and I asked you, who's gonna win Wisconsin, you would say, Donald Trump.

[Erik Jones]

It would have been easy.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

And now you say.

[Erik Jones]

If I was a gambling man, I would probably put my money on Harris.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Sounds like you wouldn't put it all on Harris.

[Erik Jones]

No, no, no, no, I wouldn't. And the reason is because if everybody turns out, she'll win a little more easily. We know that the GOP supporters, they're going to be out in droves, and we know where they're coming from, which are going to be the rural counties up north in the west, where with southeastern Wisconsin, the Democratic strongholds, those are more the metropolitan areas. And my fear is that some people will not vote because they think they have it in the bag or they just aren't voting for anybody because it's too close to call for them. So they don't vote at all.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So let's walk through some of that. Trump thinks he's gonna do better in the black community this time. Talks about it all the time. When you're in the barbershop, is there evidence of that?

[Erik Jones]

Yeah. They'll say, I had more money when he was the president. And you could ask a follow up question like, well, how does it have more money? And they're gonna say, well, a stimulus check. And it's like, well, you do know anybody that was president would have done that because we were reacting to a global pandemic. It wasn't economic policy. It comes down to how people perceive the facts of the matter. And if people are not doing their homework, I feel like that helps Trump because he's more of an image guy than a substance guy. And I think he banks on people feeling a certain way but not understanding why they feel that way.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

If you could have a two minute conversation with the vice president and say, you know, madam Vice President, I need a little help from my debates and arguments at the barbershop. I need you to talk about this or do that, what would that be?

[Erik Jones]

It would be to make people see that you're a president and a candidate that is looking forward because your past is not going to help your future.

[Joseph Knowles]

Right.

[Erik Jones]

So a lot of the policies and things that I think would be good for Americans, like how she champions the middle class. I believe you have to talk about how you're financially going to help the people who need the help. And I think that the adage, which I don't think is true, is that wealthy people vote for their pocketbook. I think most people actually vote for their pocketbook. They just don't understand how their pocketbook actually works in relations to what they're voting for.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

You were here 2016 and 2020. Hillary Clinton just lost Wisconsin. There were a lot of questions about turnout in the black community. Joe Biden wins, had better turnout. Where are we now? As we get into the final days.

[Erik Jones]

Of this one, the turnout will be better than Clinton. I feel it has to be Obama level and Biden didn't get Obama level. So I'm not sure that the turnoff from last time will be good enough. It's way too close than it actually should be. And that's what I would tell her. You have to focus on what you're going to do for the future. And how you're going to not only help the middle class, but heal a very divided and broken country.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So in the final weeks to that point, it's GOTV engagement, keeping people engaged as much as you can get them to vote early. In terms of your phone, your mailbox, your tv, what are you seeing in these final weeks?

[Erik Jones]

I see a lot of work. Even on my timeline, I constantly see people advertising, canvassing jobs, a lot of door knockers. I get phone calls a couple times a day about the campaign. It just seems that there's a energy, a passion, almost a rage of enthusiasm, where if they lose, they're gonna go down fighting, and it won't be because of lack of effort or resources being put to the fight.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Is there any Trump presence or is he just counting on. People are unhappy about the economy. People don't like the prosecutor thing.

[John King]

Are they actually working it, or are they just hoping to get it?

[Erik Jones]

I haven't seen the boots on the ground, but that doesn't mean they're not here. I actually live in a suburb, and I'm surprised because I don't really see the number of Trump signs in an affluent part of the county that I thought I would see. And what that tells me is either people are quiet about their support, like they were with Hillary Clinton, where the exit poll said they voted for Hillary and the ballot box said no, they didn't, or there are a lot of undecided people, and I don't know who that helps, because I was used to a certain level of fervor and energy that they had when he was president that I haven't seen. But that doesn't mean they're not working where my eyes can't see.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So let me circle back. As we close to where you started, you see a photo finish, you don't think it should be.

[Erik Jones]

No, I don't. I don't think it should be you. You can't own a gun. You can't vote in an election if you're a felon. You shouldn't be allowed to be president and have control of the greatest military in the world. If I got a felony and I couldn't even buy a gun.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

But if you say that in the barbershop, what happens?

[Erik Jones]

Everybody agrees with me.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Even the guys are going to vote for Trump.

[Erik Jones]

Yeah, because most of the guys that vote for Trump that are in the barbershop, they're law enforcement. I had a really spirited conversation with a member of the police department in there. It was my barber's cousin, actually. He says to me, are you a Christian? And I said, yeah. So who are you voting for? And I said, madam Vice President, of course. And he said, how can you say I was a Christian? And I said, because I have ethics. And my ethics won't allow me to vote for a misogynist, racist crook because of certain topics like abortion or things. The good Old Party feels that they have a monopoly over the Christian vote. The Democratic Party feels they have a monopoly over the black vote. The problem is there are a lot of blacks that are Christians and the black church is one of the strongest institutions in the community. So you have this tug of war in a city that I'm pretty sure the black folk will decide who wins that city and more than likely the presidency. So you have this tug of war of ethics. And I'm talking to a police officer and I'm saying, so, officer, you're telling me to vote for the felon that hasn't been sentenced yet over the prosecutor? Think about this. If you were at work, would you tell me to trust the felon or the prosecutor? And then he kind of, that's the problem. It's a Rubik's cube because you have the party that's supposed to be for law enforcement, law and order and the Bible. Say vote for this 34 times, fellow that's a misogynist in the open races because you're voting for the party, not the person. And that's what I've noticed. The line has been, in this election more than the previous elections he's been in. Before, they were saying Trump's the best person. Now they're saying vote for the topics that our party backs because they know he's not a safe back anymore. It's not the easiest thing to perpetuate when you got a 34 time felon, that's the head of your ticket.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Anything else you want to add?

[Erik Jones]

I'll say this. Hopefully, regardless of who wins, as a nation we can heal because we have not been as divided since Reconstruction. My fear is that if the losing side doesn't take a loss, well, we all lose and our way of life will not be the same. And that's my fear. So hopefully, regardless of who wins, we as a nation can handle it the right way. We know one side can. I'm a little worried if the other side can. And I'll leave you with that when.

[John King]

We come back, a lifelong Democrat suddenly turned Trump supporter and an example of why Michigan is Harris's to lose.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast.

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[Joseph Knowles]

This Jeep right here, this is what we build. This is what you build the wheels. I did my wheel alignment.

[John King]

So you actually helped build this very car?

[Joseph Knowles]

Yeah, I'm doing my own car.

[John King]

Joseph Knowles lives just outside of Detroit, Clinton Township, it's called, just across the Detroit line in Macomb County. He's a United Auto Workers union man. Had a good union job at a Jeep plant run by the multinational automaker Stellantis until this month. Just a few weeks ago, Joseph and 1100 of his colleagues got laid off. His community is blue collar, working class, prefab homes, small little patches of grass, but they're well kept. Used to be a very reliably democratic community. Now it's going for Trump. And Joseph, well, he exemplifies why you.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Mentioned your wife and kids. How many kids you got?

[Joseph Knowles]

I got four boys.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

How are they dealing with all this? It's got to be tough.

[Joseph Knowles]

Well, I haven't really talked to my kids about it and the only reason why is because I don't want them to have to even have to think about it. Now you see that I'm home every day, so they see my car out there all day, so they know something's different. So I think they got an idea. I just haven't had to sit down and talk to him yet about it. Just don't want them to be worrying about that. My wife, look, my wife, she's, she had, she made decent money and she's going to hold us up until we figure this out. So.

[Erik Jones]

Yeah.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

And who do you blame?

[Joseph Knowles]

Well, I'm gonna say this. I got three people I want to blame and I'm gonna start with Cellantis first, only because, I mean, you made a lot of money and I help make you billions of dollars a year, but I take the second blame. I will put it on Joe Biden or the Democratic Party because of the EV mandates. I feel like the company would have to invest millions of dollars, billions of dollars into this EV thing and nobody wants it. So, you know, that's where a lot of money went to. And I feel like they Lost money in that and we had to take a hit for that. And the third person I blame is Shawn Fang, and that's our union president. And I blame him is because he had opportunities during the negotiation, the contract negotiation last year, to airtight some of these cuts that we're going through. There's too many loopholes in there, and I feel like we are being explored.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

To do that because of that focusing more on wages than on security. I want to talk about your politics a little bit.

[Joseph Knowles]

Okay.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

You were for Trump before this, before the layoff decision.

[Joseph Knowles]

I started because, like I said, 2022 is when I started looking into Trump because I started seeing the changes in automotive. And at that point I was a Democrat. And I've been a Democrat really since I was 18 years old. Matter of fact, that's how I was raised to be. I was taught to be a Democrat. You know, I watched my mom be together with my grandfather, everyone Democrat. So I just thought, this is it. This is where you're supposed to be. And then, you know, it just, it was just not cautious to be Democrats until like two years ago. And I started seeing the change. I started seeing the word of the focus point was at. I didn't feel, you know, like I was part of that focus point anymore.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So how long have you been voting for president?

[Joseph Knowles]

Since I was 18.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Since you're 18. You remember your first vote for president?

[Joseph Knowles]

Who was that for? It was John Kerry.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

John Kerry.

[Joseph Knowles]

John Kerry was wondering for president at that time.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So you did. Kerry, 2004. Obama twice.

[Joseph Knowles]

Obama twice.

[John King]

Clinton.

[Joseph Knowles]

I voted for Harry Clinton. Yes.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

And Joe Biden the first time.

[Joseph Knowles]

Joe Biden the first time. Yes.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

And so Donald Trump this time. Why?

[Joseph Knowles]

Well, that's a lot. Let me explain the reason why I is Trump now. What just set me over the edge, it would be the immigration. I started seeing a lot of immigrants coming into the country and they were getting some of the services and they get money and housing and I seen that get priority. And some of the issues that we was having wasn't getting looked at. So that was it. And then I'm starting seeing everything going up with economy. I'm just looking at eggs. Like we buy from like Walmart. We get a box of eggs and it comes like 60 in there. It was like $20 just for 60 eggs. And that milk was high and I'm looking at everything just getting high and was. I started making a little bit more money with the overtime, all that. But I don't, I have. I don't. I don't see where it goes anymore. So I'm working on these extra hours. It's not worth it. It's not. I don't see where they added up at, so.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

And even when they had to switch from Biden to Harris doesn't make any difference to you?

[Joseph Knowles]

I didn't like that process, though. I didn't like the process because I didn't know nothing about Harris. And then out the blue, I saw that Joe Biden was dropping out the election. I see that she's been next in line. But normally there's a primary, there's some steps to that we get to pick. And I might would have considered if I would just been able to get vetted correctly. It just wasn't done correctly, in my opinion.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Is the Trump vote because you got mad at Biden about EVs and about inflation, cost of living, or do you look at Trump and say, my world would get better in these ways?

[Joseph Knowles]

Okay, honestly, it was. I was upset. I'm seeing that. I thought the Democratic Party was for the working class, the average Joe like me. That's what I thought. And so, yes, it will start off as anger because I don't see the difference anymore. And, you know, I don't feel like I'm priority anymore. So. So then I look into Trump now. I wasn't a trump man in 16 or the last when he was the president only because the world, it was a lot going on and I don't know if he actually helped the situation. But then I started. It started affecting my home now because I'm not being able to take care of my family. So I knew that Trump was going to run again. And I felt like, let me look into Trump. And then I started looking at some of his policies. He started saying how he was going to kind of reverse some of the EV mandates and I started saying how he was going to help bring the food, cost of food down. These are things that hit home. And then when, when he was going through trial and going to court and getting prosecuted, I know how that feel. So I start more relating to him on that too. It made me to be more interested in him even more because I saw seeing him getting prosecuted.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

So you don't think he's done any of those things? Whether it's the, you know, one of them was a civil lawsuit. A woman said that he sexually assaulted her. One was the fraud. What was the fraud case in New York? And then there's the election stuff.

[Joseph Knowles]

Okay, So I don't know nothing about the sexual thing. Honestly, I'M just hearing a lot of bits and pieces. I don't know much about that. I think you got to die like 36 times or for like fraud, money and all that. I don't know much about that. And I, to be honest with you, I really don't care. Only because I feel like that's part of the game. When you're rich, I feel like there's ways that you will find ways to get money. You know what I mean? So I don't find out as a priority. To me, that wasn't a priority to me.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Do you think he'll get your job back?

[Joseph Knowles]

I hope so.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Is that how it factors to you or do you just think he's, you know, you were mad at Biden and so you went and took a look and you found some things you like. And is it like, I'm going to give it a chance, or do you think of yourself now as a Republican or a Trump Republican, or is it just in this one election? I'm going to give this a chance.

[Joseph Knowles]

Well, I'm independent now. Don't realize I don't have a lot of conservative ways. I do believe that Trump will have fixed what's going on right now. I think at this point, now you see what's going on. I think he learned from some of the mistakes or some of the things he could and couldn't do in his first, his last election. I just believe that this time he's going to get it right.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

What's your sense in your plant? If there were a vote for Harris or Trump, what's your sense of how it would go?

[Joseph Knowles]

I think most people vote with Trump and this is the first thing I'm always hearing everybody talking about. Trump said that he is going to not tax overtime. Where in the factory we have to work 10 to 15 to 20 hours of overtime a week at times. Sometimes it gets there and no tax on that will be perfect. That would change all our lives.

[John King]

And you think he'll do that or.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

You think it's just a promise? I mean, he said in the first term he was going to repeal and replace Obamacare.

[John King]

He didn't do it.

[Joseph Knowles]

No.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

He said he was going to build a wall in Mexico. It's going to pay for it. They didn't drill much wall.

[Joseph Knowles]

No, he tried to do that. It was like he tried to get like, what, 2% of it up and it got blocked, you know, so look, he made the effort into building a wall. I didn't think that you can build a whole wall from Mexico, for the whole border of Mexico in the US I didn't believe that could be possible in one term anyhow.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

If you meet a friend from Detroit, from the business who says, you know, but Joe, wait, Trump's a racist, what do you say?

[Joseph Knowles]

No, he's not a racist. I haven't, I don't. I never thought that Trump was racist.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

But you hear it from people, right?

[Joseph Knowles]

I hear all the time. I hear all the time that Trump racist. And I gave a lot of people even, it's a shame on me, you know, shaming me for even want to consider voting for Trump. And I'm just like, this is my comeback on that would be, hey, we've been voting the same way with Democrat all our lives and nothing changing. So let's try something different. Let's try something different. I don't think Trump's a racist, though.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Do you get grief in your family, you mentioned?

[Joseph Knowles]

Oh, yeah. So when they saw that, went to his rally and war, oh, man, I took it from my mom, from my auntie, cousins, my sister. They came at me, you know, how you do this? He did this to women. How you do this in January 6th and how you do all this? I like looking at the situation we're in right now. I don't hear anything from Harris and I ain't hearing anything from Biden either about how can it change my life right now. That's what I care more about. The politics and things that are going on behind closed door. I don't know nothing about that. All I care about right now is how am I going to be able to take care of my wife and kids. That's the main important thing in my life. That's the thing that I'm responsible for. And at this point now, I'm desperate. So I'm willing to try anything right now to make sure that I can fulfill my responsibility. That's all I care about.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

You would acknowledge he says some pretty wild things sometimes. You went to one of his rallies, so you've probably heard some of the.

[Joseph Knowles]

He didn't say nothing wild at the rallies.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

No, no, that was the exception rally.

[John King]

Then he says things like he's going.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

To round up all the illegal immigrants and throw them out. You're in favor of that?

[Joseph Knowles]

All right. I don't want to come off as saying that. That's on me. But if you were here illegally in any other country, if I were to go into another country and I crossed the wrong way, I'd probably be locked up. I don't mind Trump doing whatever he need to do to enforce the law in this country. So that means escort as many people out that don't supposed to be here. I'm fine with that. I don't care how you do it. Just get them out. Now. If it's done legally and they cross correctly, I have no problem with it. But if you do it the wrong way, I think you should get round up and just throw it out. I have no problem with that because it jeopardize my way up providing for my kids if they take jobs. So I don't care because I believe me, if I feel like if I, if I ever walk into another country and I do the exact same thing that other, the other immigrants are doing, I think I'll get treated a lot worse.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Anything else you want to add?

[Joseph Knowles]

I just, I think it's a lot of us hurting. So it's real. Somebody need to help us out. I don't really care about who wins, really. I do want Trump to win and I'm voting for Trump, but I just want to be able to take care of my family. That's all we want, is to take care of our families.

[Interviewer (possibly John King or Ally Molloy)]

Thank you for your time. Appreciate it.

[Joseph Knowles]

Thank you.

[John King]

Time once again to bring in my sidekick on the road, Ally Malloy, the senior producer for all over the Map. I call her Allentown Alley. I do that because she talks Pennsylvania all the time and she roots for all the wrong teams. But there's another reason I love the term. It's because Ally, like me, is from a blue collar family. Allentown is like Dorchester. People work with their hands. People work hard. Our dads were both in UN so we're blue collar kids who happen to have pretty cool jobs.

[Ally Molloy]

Very true, very true. So, John, there's a reason why the blue wall was called a wall. It was so reliable. And in 2016, it came crashing down. And everything since has made it even more confusing in a way in 2020 and in the midterms, like, how do you even explain that?

[John King]

Yeah, this is just one of these giant questions, because the blue wall states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. They are getting older, they are getting whiter, which tells you they should be getting more Republican. Trump won in 2016 and everybody said, see you, told you so. The demographics are changing and the Republicans can win. But what has happened since then? In the midterm elections, the Democrats did well. You know, in 2020, Joe Biden did well and won them all. In 2022, Democrats did even better. And those states now all have Democratic governors and they've made Democratic gains at the legislative level. So it's kind of counterintuitive. And so, you know, the demographics tell you Democrats be worried. But Governor Evers, Governor Whitmer and Governor Shapiro tell you there's a way to do this, there's a way to keep it, but it requires different coalitions. It's complicated.

[Ally Molloy]

John, obviously a huge part of the blue wall is that union vote. It used to be obviously very solidly Democratic. We heard from our voters in Michigan that are UAW members, that they believe that it's actually a 5050 split among Trump and Harris voters. Joseph is one of those people that is for Trump, obviously. How do you think we got there?

[John King]

Well, there are a number of reasons. Globalization has everybody anxious. And after Trump won in 2016, that was the five alarm fire in the Democratic Party. How are we losing these states that have been ours for a long time? And how is this guy making inroads? How's a rich guy from a penthouse in Manhattan making inroads with blue collar union workers? And a lot of people said, well, it's demographics. Look, those states are becoming older and whiter. Other people said Trump is a populist. He's talking more about jobs, these workers thinking do the economy, autonomy. And then there's the frustration of the union leadership. We want our members, they would say, to vote on issues like organizing issues that are important to labor unions, to organize labor as an institution. And a lot of their members were saying, no, we're voting on guns or we're voting on social issues like gay rights or abortion rights. And now Trump on transgender rights. So the social and the cultural issues have cut into what the Democrats and the labor leaders wantand Trump is great at finding a difference, finding a divide, finding dissatisfaction, finding anger about something and blowing it up, you know, of putting it on steroids. It's a preexisting condition. Nothing's new with Trump, but he finds the preexisting conditions and he maximizes his advantage with them. And that's what he's doing here. And so if you're Joseph and you just lost your job, you're mad. And it is human nature to want to be mad at somebody, to find out who did this to me. And Joseph says, number one, corporate creed. So he's mad at the company first, but I didn't have to ask him if he was mad at anybody else. He brought it up himself. Second, blame on Joe Biden and the EV mandates. The numbers are that there are more auto manufacturing jobs in the United States. Today than at any point during the Trump presidency. But there is a big debate about EVs, and about whether the business has made too many, whether it's moved too fast, whether it's selling them, whether they're sitting on car lots, whether the infrastructure is in place in the country or the exception, acceptance of them is in place in the country to have this big shift. So when things go bad in the industry, Trump says, aha, it's Joe Biden's fault. And a lot of the workers go, aha, I think you're right. And that's Joseph Knowles.

[Ally Molloy]

Well, and also important to note that he was for Trump before he even got laid off.

[Erik Jones]

Yeah.

[John King]

He was already starting to look around because he sensed the mood. And then he lost his job. And he was like, I was right to look around. Yeah. So it reaffirmed his search for something different.

[Ally Molloy]

John, a lot of people in our business like to put people in boxes, specifically demographic blocks. One of my favorite things about this project is we've learned that that is kind of bullshit. And we've heard from these two men. They're both black, roughly the same age, from Rust Belt Cities, but they have very, very different politics. In what way do these men represent a larger trend?

[John King]

Well, the biggest trend is the old rules don't apply, the old labels don't apply, the old playbook doesn't apply. Some of it is things are just changing under our feet every day. And some of that's Trump. He has redefined the Republican Party. He has Repopul. It is a different Republican Party today than just five, six, eight years ago. And so when you have change, you have to deal with it. Population is shifting. That's another change. Education, We've talked about this in prior episodes. Education is now a dividing line. But here you have two men who are voting like a lot of people vote. Men, women, white, black, Asian, Latino, gay, straight. How do I feel? How is my life? How am I doing? How do I feel when I look my kids in the eye? Eric, when we first met him, was down. He said, why is all the money going downtown and not coming out here to the north side? There used to be factories looping around here. Now they're brownfields. He's more optimistic now. He sees things coming back, far from finished, but he sees the building blocks, and that translates into your politics. Joseph is the flip side.

[Ally Molloy]

Yep.

[John King]

He's lost his job. He thinks his union failed him, the institution failed him. He thinks Joe Biden's EV policies have something to do with that. Anybody out there listening. Maybe you're having a debate. Is he right or is he wrong? I get that. I respect the debate. In his world, he's on the ladder to the American dream and the trapdoor just opened. So he's mad. He's mad and he wants to blame somebody. It is human nature and understandable. You're optimistic about the economy. Keep what we got. You're pessimistic about the economy. Let's change what we got. There you go.

[Ally Molloy]

We keep talking about election math, but what does it say about this race, 2024, that we're a week away about? And Michigan and Wisconsin are still such huge question marks.

[John King]

And Pennsylvania and Arizona and North Carolina and Georgia and Nevada. Look, you know, I always say that this is really complicated, so my bosses have to pay me money to do this. Politics, in the end, is the first math we learned. It's addition and subtraction. It's who has the most, when you add them all up, end who has the most. But underneath that, the coalition math is changing. I was gonna say has changed so dramatically, it just is changing constantly. The education level, Trump's inroads with the black community, with the Latino community. This is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision. We don't really know what it's gonna do to the math in a presidential election. So in our travels, I drive you nuts with this. It's like, okay, so if you take the 2020 race, you know, what does Trump need to do better to win in 2024? What does Harris need to do to match Biden's coalition or improve upon it? Well, you also know she's going to lose somewhere, right? The numbers tell us she's going to lose at least a modest number of black men from the Biden coalition, probably a modest number of Latino men from the Biden coalition. Okay, okay. You know you're going to have some subtraction, so where can you make it up? How much can you afford to lose? And if you're getting worried you're losing too much, where can you get new addition to make up for the subtraction? Well, does that come with more suburban women? Does that come with slightly higher turnout among African American? So that's what we've been living. And so when you meet an Erik Jones, he was going to vote for a Democrat, so he's not a plus. But as an evangelist, he might be right. He might be a calculator. He's out there getting other people for you because he's optimistic now, and he's saying, you got to vote. You were going to stay home because you were mad. No, no, no. Look, things are getting better. You got to vote. Joseph Knowles is a gift for Trump, and it hurts Kamala Harris because he's a black man from a Democratic family who's always voted Democratic. So it's minus one right there. And then if he's talking to friends at the grocery store at the union hall and say, hey, we got to try something different, you know? Yeah. Okay. You all think I'm nuts for supporting Trump. Give it a chance. What we have isn't working. He's at least one. The question is, does he help Trump more? The one thing I do know in this, my 10th presidential campaign, is this is the most complicated coalition math of any of these races. And that's what makes our job fascinating. That's why we have to get out from behind the desk in Washington and get out in America and take some notes. And, yes, do some math.

[Ally Molloy]

And pretty soon your favorite count the votes.

[John King]

Count the votes one at a time till we're done. This podcast version of all over the Map is a CNN audio production. Our show producers are Grace Walker, Jesse Remedios and Ally Molloy. Our editor is Graylin Brashear, and our senior producers are Dan Bloom and Haley Thomas. Dan Dezulla is our technical director and Steve Lichti is executive producer of CNN Audio. Support from Nikki Robertson, Jacqueline Kahlil, Alex Manassari, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Laney Steinhardt, Jamis Andrest, Nicole Pesaru, and Lisa Namaro. Special thanks to Wendy Brundage and Katie Hinman. I'm John King. Thanks for listening.

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