CNN Presents – All Over The Map: Why the Race Is So Close in the Rust Belt

Date: October 28, 2024
Host: John King, with producer Ally Molloy
Locations: Milwaukee, WI & Macomb County (Detroit suburbs), MI
Featured Voters: Erik Jones (Wisconsin), Joseph Knowles (Michigan)

Overview

This episode delves into why the 2024 presidential race is neck-and-neck in the Rust Belt, focusing specifically on Wisconsin and Michigan—two pivotal states that could determine the election's outcome. Host John King and producer Ally Molloy take listeners into the hearts of these communities, interviewing two voters—one a rejuvenated Democratic optimist in Milwaukee, the other a lifelong Democrat-turned Trump supporter recently laid off from a Detroit-area Jeep plant. Through their stories, the episode unpacks the shifting coalitions, economic anxieties, evolving social identities, and how old political assumptions no longer fit the evolving American electorate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wisconsin: Erik Jones and the Shifting Democratic Mood

• Background: Erik Jones, an entrepreneur in Milwaukee, self-described political science geek, and active community member.
• Current Sentiment: Milwaukee feels more energized for Democrats than in previous cycles. While Erik remains cautious, he senses renewed optimism among Democratic voters, especially after Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
  • “It feels like a photo finish if I ever saw one... The Democratic base is more rejuvenated and a lot more spirited.” (03:10)
• Democratic Turnout Concerns:
  • “Turnout will be better than Clinton [2016]. I feel it has to be Obama level and Biden didn’t get Obama level... So I’m not sure the turnout from last time will be good enough. It’s way too close than it should be.” (07:32)
• Republican Presence: Erik notes a decrease in visible Trump support in his suburb and fewer signs of GOP organizing than expected but acknowledges this might not accurately reflect actual turnout or hidden support.
  • “I don’t really see the number of Trump signs in an affluent part of the county that I thought I would see. Either people are quiet about their support... or there are a lot of undecided people...” (08:56)
• Barbershop Politics:
  • Talks in local barbershops reveal some Black men recall “having more money” under Trump—attributing it to pandemic stimulus checks—but Erik pushes back, emphasizing the importance of policy understanding over emotion and image.
  • “If people are not doing their homework, I feel like that helps Trump because he’s more of an image guy than a substance guy.” (05:34)
• Polarized Ethics, Law, and Faith:
  • Erik highlights contradictions among some Black and law enforcement Trump supporters relating to ethics, Christian identity, and Trump’s criminal convictions.
  • “[The GOP] feels that they have a monopoly over the Christian vote. The Democratic Party feels they have a monopoly over the Black vote... You have this tug of war of ethics. And I’m talking to a police officer and I’m saying, so, officer, you’re telling me to vote for the felon that hasn’t been sentenced yet over the prosecutor?” (11:39)
• Closing Reflection:
  • Erik expresses concern about America’s capacity to “heal” post-election, worried that refusal to accept defeat could deepen national divides.

2. Michigan: Joseph Knowles, Union Worker Turned Trump Voter

• Background: Joseph Knowles, former United Auto Workers member, Jeep plant worker laid off this month. Lifelong Democrat, now supporting Trump.
• Personal Impact:
  • Laid off alongside 1,100 coworkers due to plant cutbacks he attributes to multiple factors: corporate decisions, Biden’s EV mandates, and his union’s leadership.
  • “I help make you billions of dollars a year, but... I will put it on Joe Biden or the Democratic Party because of the EV mandates. I feel like the company would have to invest millions of dollars, billions of dollars into this EV thing and nobody wants it.” (15:35)
• Political Shift:
  • Historically voted Democratic (Kerry, Obama, Clinton, Biden), started re-evaluating in 2022 as he felt the party’s focus shifted away from people like him.
  • “I watched my mom be together with my grandfather, everyone Democrat. So I just thought, this is it. This is where you’re supposed to be... And then, you know, it just, it was just not cautious to be Democrats until like two years ago. And I started seeing the change.” (16:50)
• Reasons for Supporting Trump:
  • Economic Anxiety: Blames inflation, rising cost of essentials, and perceived prioritization of immigrants over citizens for his shift.
    • “I started seeing a lot of immigrants coming into the country... They get money and housing and I seen that get priority. And some of the issues that we was having wasn’t getting looked at.” (17:59)
  • EV Policies: Believes the Democratic push for electric vehicles contributed to his job loss.
  • Trump Relatability: Identifies with Trump being “prosecuted,” feeling both have been treated unfairly.
    • “He started saying how he was going to reverse some of the EV mandates... these are things that hit home. And then when he was going through trial and going to court and getting prosecuted, I know how that feel.” (19:43)
  • Party Vetting Discontent: Frustrated with the Democratic switch to Harris without a primary process—felt the choice was imposed.
  • Trump Promises: Especially attracted to Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on overtime—a huge issue for factory workers.
    • “No tax on that will be perfect. That would change all our lives.” (22:44)
• Social Identity and Pushback:
  • Faces family criticism, especially from women relatives, for backing Trump—but feels compelled by his responsibility as a father and provider.
    • “All I care about right now is how am I going to be able to take care of my wife and kids. That’s the main important thing in my life. That’s the thing that I’m responsible for. And at this point now, I’m desperate. So I’m willing to try anything right now...” (24:13)
  • Asserts he doesn’t consider Trump racist, despite community perceptions.
• Stance on Immigration:
  • Strongly supports Trump’s proposed crackdown on undocumented immigrants, believing job competition and economic pressure are paramount.
    • “If you do it the wrong way, I think you should get round up and just throw it out. I have no problem with that because it jeopardize my way of providing for my kids...” (25:32)
• Ultimately:
  • He’s now an Independent, less interested in party labels, and open to change born out of economic desperation.

3. John King & Ally Molloy: Big Picture Analysis

• Demographics & the Blue Wall:
  • The "blue wall" (WI, MI, PA) used to be solidly Democratic; recent cycles have made these states continual battlegrounds.
  • “They are getting older, they are getting whiter, which tells you they should be getting more Republican. Trump won in 2016 and everybody said, ‘See, I told you so.’... But what has happened since then?... Those states now all have Democratic governors and they’ve made Democratic gains at the legislative level. It’s counterintuitive.” (27:40)
• Union Vote Splitting:
  • Once a Democratic stronghold, the UAW vote is described as now 50/50 between Harris and Trump.
  • Culture wars, social issues (guns, abortion, transgender rights), and union members’ frustrations have eroded the traditional Democratic coalition.
• Identity vs. Issues:
  • Traditional demographic assumptions are breaking down. Black men in the Midwest are not a political monolith, as demonstrated by the differing perspectives of Erik and Joseph.
  • “The biggest trend is the old rules don’t apply, the old labels don’t apply, the old playbook doesn’t apply. Some of it is things are just changing under our feet every day. And some of that’s Trump. He has redefined the Republican Party.” (31:35)
• The Complicated Coalition Math:
  • The electorate’s calculations are fluid: voters like Erik become “calculators” trying to energize their side, while Josephs subtract from the Democratic base and spread their conversion story.
  • “This is the most complicated coalition math of any of these races.” (33:13)
  • Changing education levels, Trump’s inroads with both Black and Latino communities, the Dobbs decision, and the general volatility makes 2024 especially unpredictable.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the Stakes and Division:

• “It’s a cliché, but every vote does count, especially in the battleground states... The math comes down to the moods and votes of voters like these.” — John King (00:59)

Erik Jones on Dem Mood:

• “The Democratic base is more rejuvenated and a lot more spirited. Conversations in the barbershops where before a lot of people thought that the election was a done deal and nobody feels that way anymore.” (03:10)
• “You can’t own a gun. You can’t vote if you’re a felon. You shouldn’t be allowed to be president and have control of the greatest military in the world. If I got a felony and I couldn’t even buy a gun.” (09:57)

Barbershop Ethics:

• “My ethics won’t allow me to vote for a misogynist, racist crook because of certain topics like abortion or things...” — Erik Jones (11:39)

Joseph Knowles' Frustration:

• “All I care about right now is how am I going to be able to take care of my wife and kids... I’m desperate. So I’m willing to try anything right now to make sure that I can fulfill my responsibility.” (24:13)
• “No, he’s not a racist. I haven’t, I don’t. I never thought that Trump was racist... Hey, we’ve been voting the same way with Democrat all our lives and nothing changing. So let’s try something different.” (23:42)

Ally Molloy on Demographics:

• “One of my favorite things about this project is we’ve learned that [boxing people into demographics] is kind of bullshit. We’ve heard from these two men... very, very different politics.” (31:10)

King on Coalition Complexity:

• “Politics, in the end, is the first math we learned. It’s addition and subtraction... But underneath that, the coalition math is changing. I was gonna say has changed so dramatically, it just is changing constantly.” (33:24)

Major Segment Timestamps

• [00:59] Introduction & context — King in Wisconsin/Michigan
• [01:58] Erik Jones interview starts (Milwaukee, WI)
• [03:10] Jones describes Democratic energy and photo finish
• [05:34] Barbershop debate about Trump’s actual impact and image
• [07:32] Turnout and urgency in Black community
• [11:39] Ethics, law enforcement, Christianity debate re: Trump
• [12:42] Jones’s closing, hopes for national healing
• [14:07] Joseph Knowles interview starts (Macomb County, MI)
• [15:35] Knowles blames layoffs on Stellantis, Biden/EVs, union
• [16:50] Shift from lifeline Democrat to Trump supporter
• [17:59] Immigration and inflation as key motivators
• [19:03] Frustration with Harris replacing Biden, no primary
• [22:44] Trump’s overtime tax pledge resonates with UAW workers
• [23:42] Pushback from Black community/family over Trump support
• [24:13] “Desperate” to provide for his family
• [25:32] Unapologetic support for strict immigration enforcement
• [26:27] Knowles’s closing: wants “someone to help us out”
• [27:23] King & Molloy analysis: blue wall’s demographic confusion
• [28:54] Split among UAW, union vote’s unraveling
• [31:10] Rejecting demographic monoliths
• [33:13] Coalition math, addition/subtraction of votes
• [36:30] Credits & outro

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a narrative-driven, grounded, and empathetic tone. There is a strong commitment to letting regular voters express their anxieties, loyalties, and contradictions in their own words, with John King and Ally Molloy contextualizing these voices within national trends and political science without condescension. The result is a detailed, nuanced exploration of 2024's battleground unpredictabilities—ultimately, a reminder of both the power and the unpredictability of individual votes in America’s evolving democracy.