Podcast
The ACID Capitalist Podcast
Hosted by Hugh Hendry · EN
Gonzo Finance!
Hugh Hendry is an Award Winning Hedge Fund Manager, Market Commentator, Thought Leader, St Barts Real Estate Investor & Surfer.
Full episodes are available at https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry and https://hughhendry.substack.com
17episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
what if the uk is already bankrupt.
4w ago00:45:11Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mailcome to the acid capitalist summer camp in st barts 2nd to 6th august.https://hughhendry.com/acid-capital-retreat/broadcasting from the caribbean as the acid capitalist, i try to make the uk’s sovereign problem legible without the institutional fog. no jargon. no costume. just the one signal that still cuts through the spin: price. i start with a ghost story of imperial infrastructure repurposed into luxury hospitality, then land the argument with brutal ratios that sound like trivia until you see them for what they are: a balance sheet warning.from there, we invert the whole thing. modern war needs drones and factories more than it needs mass conscription. modern work needs software more than it needs layers of professional glue between capital and labour. when ai makes parts of the middle class optional, it’s not just jobs that move. it’s the uk tax base. the thing that funds pensions, healthcare, and the welfare state. then nato appears for what it increasingly is: a financial arrangement. europe’s long reduced-responsibility model stops looking like morality and starts looking like an expiring discount as the defence invoice rises.the autopsy moves through gilts, cheap borrowing, and the decades-long loop of surplus capital recycled into british government debt and assets. low gilt yields made big promises look affordable. too much of the money chased property and financial engineering instead of productivity. when global capital gets redirected and the subsidy fades, welfare arithmetic, political constraint, and bond market discipline collide fast. i finish with a tradable lens on scarcity, real estate, city-state jurisdictions, and the prices to watch next: real 10-year gilt yields, the gilt-bund spread, and sterling against the places where capital actually wants to live.if this changes how you see the uk bond market and the future of the welfare state, subscribe, share it, and leave a review. what price signal are you watching now?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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the tape is calling bullshit
Apr 2100:32:57Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mailthe strangest part of the last few weeks is not the headlines about iran, the strait of hormuz, or "financial war". the strangest part is the price. while the front pages sound confident that risk should be melting stocks down, the s&p 500 and nasdaq act like they already know how this ends, and they keep moving higher. i dig into that uncomfortable moment every investor recognises: being right on your story but wrong in your p&l, and what to do when the tape gives the loudest answer in the room.i take aim at the tidy media script that assigns roles before facts arrive, then i replace it with the market’s colder framework: constraints. who can actually afford disruption the longest? a big part of our answer is physical, not political. iran’s oil system is built to flow, not to pause. if the flow stops, wells can lose pressure and heavy crude can gum up the reservoir, creating damage that is hard to reverse. that "flow system" reality changes how we think about bargaining power, escalation risk, and why equities may be pricing probabilities very differently from the commentary class.then i zoom out to the signals traders watch when they have to bet real money: volatility and macro. a rapid vix collapse is not just a vibe shift; historically it often reshapes forward stock market returns favourably unless policy is tightening hard. i also look at producer prices to separate noisy headline inflation from the calmer underlying trend. finally, i talk about the next potential wave that markets may be front-running already: a hurricane of equity issuance and mega-ipos from names like spacex, openai, and anthropic, and what that means for liquidity and positioning.if you got something from this, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave me a review. what do you trust more right now: headlines or price?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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double voltage. the trade no one sees.
Apr 1500:21:32Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mailit broke. the talks. iran, the us, all of it. the kind of weekend that’s supposed to matter. the market sells off. of course it does. and then it gets quickly bought back. clean. no hesitation. and by the time you’re ready to process it, it’s back at the all time high again.so now you’ve got a problem. because that isn’t noise. it’s instruction. price telling you what it doesn’t care about, and what you should stop caring about too if you want to invest like an adult rather than react like a tourist.i don’t chase headlines anymore. i build systems. i call it the game beneath the noise. a macro framework across equities, bonds, alternatives and cash. four moving parts, never static. once you see that, it simplifies. you stop reacting and start watching what actually matters.if you feel that, stay with it. subscribe, share it with someone still trading headlines, and leave a review so more people can find the show.Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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what if your real edge is disobedience.
Apr 200:39:57Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Maila senior rates trader with the closest seat to the federal reserve looks you in the eye and says the quiet part out loud: rates are impossible to predict. that single line detonates the whole religion of macro commentary, expert priesthood, and the endless chase for “signal” in GDP tweaks, inflation prints, and breathless basis point narratives. we follow that thread to a blunt standard for intellectual hygiene: if price did not move materially, the story is mostly theatre. from there, we go somewhere stranger and more honest. a photograph arrives from my friend ryk, an artist, launching a dirt bike over a 12-foot gap with zero hesitation and real consequences. it becomes the episode’s central metaphor for disobedience, for stepping outside the soft prison of explanation, and for remembering what direct contact with reality feels like. I bring in adorno’s critique of modern systems to describe how metrics and dopamine loops train us to copy certainty instead of thinking, turning us into spectators who consult, process, and react to official captions rather than deciding. the takeaway is practical for trading and investing, and broader than markets: watch behaviour not commentary, watch price not narrative, and stop handing your sense of reality to people who risk nothing beyond temporary embarrassment. if you’re tired of financial television certainty, central bank fairy tales, and analysis that exists to justify fees, this is a reset. subscribe, share it with a friend who lives on headlines, and leave a review with your take: what’s one narrative you stopped believing once you looked at price?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚜𝚎𝚗𝚜𝚞𝚜 𝚑𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚞𝚌𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.
Mar 2700:44:53Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mailfourteen basis points. that’s the kind of move that gets treated like prophecy on financial television, dressed up with solemn voices and “sticky inflation” metaphors. i'm not buying it. from an apocalypse now rant delivered with a trader’s eye, i lay out a brutal macro investing filter: markets don’t move because someone “figured it out” they move because people act, react, and mis-price risk inside a chaotic system. if you want clarity, you need distance from the noise and a refusal to outsource judgement to institutions that keep revising their story after the fact.i dig into the federal reserve meeting, the obsession with decimal points, and why wall street can’t admit when nothing has happened. the ten-year us treasury yield becomes the lie detector. if bonds barely move, the “big” data is often just theatre designed to keep trading active and fees flowing. we also pick apart inflation data like ppi, not to worship the numbers, but to show how over-zooming turns randomness into false urgency.then i take the same lens to china. when industrial production and retail sales are labelled as beats, the narrative machine instantly declares “china is back”. my response is simpler: show me the yield. if china’s ten-year yield stays below 2%, the bond market is signalling deflationary drag and fragile confidence, not a clean growth comeback. i close with the real-world stakes of this abstraction and the one takeaway i keep coming back to: watch price, watch behaviour, ignore the rest.if this sharpened your thinking, subscribe, share the episode with a friend who loves macro takes, and leave a review. what’s your personal “truth test” market price that you trust more than headlines?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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fiat isn't a failure. it's a weapon. and bitcoin is the shield.
Feb 2201:54:15Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mail𝚊 𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚎𝚝 𝚜𝚕𝚊𝚖𝚖𝚎𝚍 𝚒𝚗𝚝𝚘 𝚊𝚗 𝚎𝚕𝚊𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚌 𝚠𝚘𝚛𝚕𝚍. 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚑𝚎𝚕𝚕 𝚑𝚊𝚙𝚙𝚎𝚗𝚜 𝚗𝚎𝚡𝚝? 𝚒 𝚍𝚛𝚊𝚐 𝚢𝚘𝚞 𝚏𝚛𝚘𝚖 𝚛𝚊𝚒𝚗-𝚜𝚘𝚊𝚔𝚎𝚍 𝚋𝚛𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚜𝚑 𝚙𝚘𝚞𝚗𝚍 𝚗𝚘𝚝𝚎𝚜 𝚝𝚘 𝚊 𝚏𝚞𝚕𝚕-𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚘𝚝𝚝𝚕𝚎 𝚊𝚞𝚍𝚒𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚋𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚘𝚒𝚗'𝚜 𝚒𝚛𝚘𝚗𝚌𝚕𝚊𝚍 𝚜𝚝𝚛𝚞𝚌𝚝𝚞𝚛𝚎, 𝚐𝚘𝚕𝚍'𝚜 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚕𝚎𝚜𝚜 𝚋𝚎𝚗𝚌𝚑𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚔, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚝𝚠𝚒𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚍 𝚎𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚘𝚖𝚒𝚌𝚜 𝚘𝚏 𝚜𝚌𝚊𝚛𝚌𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚒𝚗 𝚊𝚗 𝚎𝚛𝚊 𝚑𝚞𝚛𝚝𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚝𝚘𝚠𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚊𝚋𝚞𝚗𝚍𝚊𝚗𝚌𝚎. 𝚒 𝚔𝚒𝚌𝚔 𝚘𝚏𝚏 𝚋𝚢 𝚏𝚕𝚒𝚙𝚙𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚏𝚒𝚊𝚝 𝚘𝚗 𝚒𝚝𝚜 𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚍: 𝚗𝚘𝚝 𝚜𝚘𝚖𝚎 𝚖𝚘𝚛𝚊𝚕 𝚏𝚕𝚘𝚙, 𝚋𝚞𝚝 𝚊 𝚜𝚕𝚒𝚌𝚔 𝚊𝚍𝚊𝚙𝚝𝚒𝚟𝚎 𝚠𝚎𝚊𝚙𝚘𝚗 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚑𝚎𝚕𝚍 𝚜𝚘𝚌𝚒𝚎𝚝𝚒𝚎𝚜 𝚝𝚘𝚐𝚎𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛 𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚘𝚞𝚐𝚑 𝚠𝚎𝚒𝚖𝚊𝚛'𝚜 𝚌𝚑𝚊𝚘𝚜, 𝟷𝟿𝟸𝟿'𝚜 𝚌𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚑, 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾'𝚜 𝚖𝚎𝚕𝚝𝚍𝚘𝚠𝚗, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚙𝚊𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚖𝚒𝚌'𝚜 𝚏𝚞𝚛𝚢. 𝚎𝚕𝚊𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚌 𝚖𝚘𝚗𝚎𝚢 𝚜𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚍𝚜 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚜𝚑𝚘𝚌𝚔, 𝚋𝚞𝚢𝚜 𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚌𝚒𝚘𝚞𝚜 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎, 𝚋𝚞𝚝 𝚑𝚊𝚖𝚖𝚎𝚛𝚜 𝚖𝚒𝚜𝚎𝚛𝚢 𝚍𝚘𝚠𝚗 𝚘𝚗 𝚝𝚑𝚘𝚜𝚎 𝚕𝚘𝚌𝚔𝚎𝚍 𝚘𝚞𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚎𝚝𝚜. 𝚋𝚛𝚞𝚝𝚊𝚕 𝚒𝚗𝚎𝚚𝚞𝚊𝚕𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚒𝚗 𝚖𝚘𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.𝚏𝚛𝚘𝚖 𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛𝚎, 𝚒 𝚌𝚘𝚖𝚙𝚊𝚛𝚎 𝚕𝚎𝚊𝚔𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚜𝚌𝚊𝚛𝚌𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚊𝚐𝚊𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚞𝚗𝚢𝚒𝚎𝚕𝚍𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚔𝚒𝚗𝚍. 𝚐𝚘𝚕𝚍'𝚜 𝚜𝚞𝚙𝚙𝚕𝚢 𝚌𝚛𝚎𝚎𝚙𝚜 𝚞𝚙 𝚠𝚑𝚎𝚗 𝚙𝚛𝚒𝚌𝚎𝚜 𝚜𝚌𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚖 𝚑𝚒𝚐𝚑𝚎𝚛; 𝚐𝚎𝚘𝚕𝚘𝚐𝚢 𝚍𝚛𝚊𝚐𝚜 𝚒𝚝𝚜 𝚏𝚎𝚎𝚝, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚔𝚎𝚝𝚜 𝚗𝚘𝚍 𝚊𝚕𝚘𝚗𝚐. 𝚋𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚘𝚒𝚗'𝚜 𝚜𝚞𝚙𝚙𝚕𝚢? 𝚜𝚝𝚘𝚗𝚎 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚍 𝚒𝚗𝚍𝚒𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚛𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚝𝚘 𝚙𝚛𝚒𝚌𝚎. 𝚒𝚜𝚜𝚞𝚊𝚗𝚌𝚎 𝚕𝚘𝚌𝚔𝚎𝚍, 𝚑𝚊𝚕𝚟𝚒𝚗𝚐𝚜 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚍 𝚕𝚒𝚔𝚎 𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚌𝚔𝚠𝚘𝚛𝚔, 𝚍𝚞𝚖𝚙𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚊𝚕𝚕 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚌𝚑𝚊𝚘𝚜 𝚘𝚗 𝚟𝚘𝚕𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚕𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚘𝚞𝚛 𝚏𝚛𝚊𝚐𝚒𝚕𝚎 𝚙𝚜𝚢𝚌𝚑𝚎𝚜. 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝'𝚜 𝚠𝚑𝚢 𝚝𝚑𝚘𝚜𝚎 𝚜𝚊𝚟𝚊𝚐𝚎 𝚍𝚛𝚊𝚠𝚍𝚘𝚠𝚗𝚜 𝚊𝚛𝚎 𝚜𝚝𝚛𝚎𝚜𝚜 𝚝𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚜, 𝚗𝚘𝚝 𝚍𝚎𝚊𝚝𝚑 𝚔𝚗𝚎𝚕𝚕𝚜.𝚒 𝚙𝚕𝚞𝚗𝚐𝚎 𝚒𝚗𝚝𝚘 𝚌𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘𝚐𝚛𝚊𝚙𝚑𝚢. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚞𝚕𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚊𝚝𝚎 𝚘𝚠𝚗𝚎𝚛𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚙 𝚟𝚊𝚞𝚕𝚝 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚜𝚚𝚞𝚊𝚛𝚎 𝚘𝚏𝚏 𝚊𝚐𝚊𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝 𝚚𝚞𝚊𝚗𝚝𝚞𝚖 𝚌𝚘𝚖𝚙𝚞𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚊𝚜 𝚊 𝚜𝚘𝚌𝚒𝚎𝚝𝚊𝚕 𝚐𝚞𝚝 𝚌𝚑𝚎𝚌𝚔, 𝚗𝚘𝚝 𝚜𝚘𝚖𝚎 𝚑𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚢𝚠𝚘𝚘𝚍 𝚊𝚙𝚘𝚌𝚊𝚕𝚢𝚙𝚜𝚎. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚖𝚊𝚝𝚑 𝚞𝚙𝚐𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜 𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚢; 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚕 𝚍𝚛𝚊𝚐 𝚒𝚜 𝚌𝚘𝚘𝚛𝚍𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗. 𝚕𝚘𝚌𝚔𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚒𝚗 𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚝 𝚖𝚘𝚍𝚎𝚕𝚜, 𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚏𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚔𝚎𝚢𝚜, 𝚠𝚛𝚊𝚗𝚐𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚝 𝚌𝚘𝚒𝚗𝚜 𝚠𝚒𝚝𝚑𝚘𝚞𝚝 𝚝𝚘𝚛𝚌𝚑𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚝𝚛𝚞𝚜𝚝. 𝚎𝚗 𝚛𝚘𝚞𝚝𝚎, 𝚒 𝚍𝚒𝚜𝚜𝚎𝚌𝚝 𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚘𝚒𝚗𝚜, 𝚒𝚗𝚏𝚕𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗-𝚑𝚎𝚍𝚐𝚎 𝚖𝚎𝚌𝚑𝚊𝚗𝚒𝚌𝚜, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚏𝚝 𝚏𝚛𝚘𝚖 𝚍𝚎𝚟𝚘𝚞𝚝 𝚌𝚞𝚕𝚝 𝚣𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚘𝚝𝚜 𝚝𝚘 𝚛𝚞𝚕𝚎-𝚋𝚘𝚞𝚗𝚍 𝚌𝚞𝚜𝚝𝚘𝚍𝚒𝚊𝚗𝚜 𝚛𝚎𝚋𝚊𝚕𝚊𝚗𝚌𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚘𝚗 𝚊𝚞𝚝𝚘𝚙𝚒𝚕𝚘𝚝. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚛𝚎𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚍? 𝚒𝚏 𝚢𝚘𝚞'𝚛𝚎 𝚐𝚎𝚊𝚛𝚎𝚍 𝚞𝚙 𝚝𝚘 𝚜𝚑𝚊𝚝𝚝𝚎𝚛 𝚢𝚘𝚞𝚛 𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚖𝚘𝚗𝚎𝚢 𝚍𝚘𝚐𝚖𝚊, 𝚟𝚘𝚕𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚕𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚟𝚒𝚋𝚎𝚜, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝 "𝚛𝚒𝚜𝚔𝚕𝚎𝚜𝚜" 𝚝𝚛𝚞𝚕𝚢 𝚙𝚊𝚌𝚔𝚜, 𝚑𝚒𝚝 𝚙𝚕𝚊𝚢. 𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚗 𝚜𝚞𝚋𝚜𝚌𝚛𝚒𝚋𝚎, 𝚋𝚕𝚊𝚜𝚝 𝚒𝚝 𝚝𝚘 𝚊 𝚋𝚞𝚍𝚍𝚢 𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚟𝚒𝚗𝚌𝚎𝚍 𝚐𝚘𝚕𝚍'𝚜 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚗𝚍𝚐𝚊𝚖𝚎, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚍𝚛𝚘𝚙 𝚊 𝚛𝚎𝚟𝚒𝚎𝚠 𝚜𝚙𝚒𝚕𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚐: 𝚒𝚜 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚝𝚛𝚞𝚎 𝚛𝚒𝚜𝚔 𝚒𝚗 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚌𝚘𝚍𝚎-𝚘𝚛 𝚒𝚗 𝚘𝚞𝚛 𝚍𝚊𝚖𝚗 𝚜𝚎𝚕𝚟𝚎𝚜?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
Transcribe →10x ʀɪᴄʜᴇʀ ᴏʀ ᴅᴇᴀᴅ ☠️
Nov 2100:36:04Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailA market story is only as good as the portfolio that can survive it. Hugh Hendry sat down in London to explore risk from first principles. Why playful, curious, even mischievous thinking can beat credentialed certainty, and how to build an allocation that thrives whether AI delivers a productivity super‑cycle or ushers in painful dislocation. The conversation tugs at the great plaster on the body politic : consumer sentiment scraping historic lows while prosperity narratives soar.Hugh breaks the problem into a simple, repeatable framework: four macro quadrants: dollar cash serving both as collateral and yield, broad tech equities for growth, long‑duration bonds for rare mean reversion hedge, and alternatives, including gold, private assets, property, and crypto for convexity. He explains how the bond market’s shock: long dated Treasuries halving as banks shorted futures to hedge mortgage books in the 2020-22 era, created a once‑in‑a‑generation possible profit setup if rates drop and American households refinance en masse. A path where a misread neutral Fed policy rate and a frozen refinancing market could flip the script, reopen housing, and make out‑of‑consensus rate bets extraordinarily lucrative. The lesson isn’t to idolise a forecast; it’s to price the consequences and size for survival and profit.He also gets specific on price compression: why multi‑decade ceilings matter more than pundit stories, how the Nasdaq’s breakout unlocked a fivefold run, and where similar patterns may be brewing in silver and Japan. If you’ve wondered how to stay invested without becoming a hostage to the latest narrative, this is a clear playbook: pre‑commit your belief, right‑size your risk, and use the market’s own footprints to time your aggression.If this conversation sharpened your thinking, follow the show, share it with a friend who obsesses over macro, and leave a quick review to help more curious investors find us.Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
Transcribe →What If Markets Reward Vision More Than Math?
Nov 1201:15:59Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailA faster lap by going blind sounds reckless until you hear Lando Norris say he drives better with the delta display switched off. That’s the spark for a bigger idea we explore: acid capitalism, where imagination and shared beliefs move markets more than the neatest spreadsheet ever can.We start with the critique that more frequent shows dilute intrigue and use it to sharpen the mission: reduce noise, focus on decision design. From there we test how narrative beats decimals in places you wouldn’t expect. An F1 franchise marked at six billion becomes a case study in brand economics. Nvidia stops looking like “just chips” and reveals its platform moat through CUDA and TSMC’s world-class execution, while hyperscalers quietly stretch asset lives to boost reported earnings. Tesla’s 20-quarter coil is not dead money; it’s stored energy that can compress a future rerate positive or cataclysmic into a single year. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year yield hovering below 2 percent acts as a simple, powerful tell for local equities.We also dig into mispriced complexity. Spirits makers face a brutal cobweb: whiskey needs a decade, tequila seven years, and changing demand punishes inventory mistakes for an age. That’s why Diageo and peers trade near decade lows; not because the category is broken, but because time is. Pain today sets up tomorrow’s scarcity. We map one pragmatic approach: harvest option income against depressed, range-bound leaders to grind down cost basis while you wait for pricing power to return.Along the way, we examine Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy premiums, joke about longevity supplements, and acknowledge the temptation to obsess over every decimal point. The takeaway is consistent: decide what to ignore. Turn off the dashboard that steals your attention, then do the simple, hard work and respect cash over optics, find moats that scale, and back visions that mobilise real capital.Enjoyed the ride? Follow, share with a friend who loves markets with edge, and leave a review telling us what you’d switch off to see better.Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
Transcribe →What if AI cuts jobs faster than rates can fall?
Nov 801:02:00Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailMarkets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payroll prints, and a tech slide that turns “AI capex” from dream to doubt in a heartbeat.I break down how cobweb dynamics and inventory timing errors ripple from toothpaste to autos, why tariffs distorted the clock on purchases, and where the data is more theatre than truth. China’s export picture adds another twist: a bilateral surplus that widens even as shipments to the US shrink, exposing the difference between volume and value in a tariff world. We dig into the money plumbing too, because it’s no longer just M2. Offshore dollar creation rides on the collateral of investment portfolios, trade invoices, rehypothecated claims that shape and form money in ways the Fed doesn’t fully map.For investors, the practical edge is structure and levels. Options now mediate the market’s mood, turning volatility into potential income when used with care. Covered calls on quality after big drops can pay you to wait, but path risk matters. We map Meta’s gap fill and key Fibonacci retracements, and consider Oracle’s round‑trip as a reminder that narratives can outrun cash flows. The stance is clear: acknowledge the pullback, respect the signs of strain, and build selective shopping lists rather than chasing every bounce. Let the market pay you for patience, and let price confirm when the turn is real.If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, share it with a friend who trades the headlines, and leave a quick review. Tell me what level you’re watching next. I’ll bring the charts.Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
Transcribe →Is the Market Running Out of Money?
Nov 601:21:20Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailWhat if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the form of sharp pullbacks.We dig into why professionals rarely short meme‑charged leaders like Palantir even when valuations look unhinged, and how the “malicious” habit of strong markets is to snap back toward the one‑year moving average before pushing higher. Along the way, we revisit the Supreme Court’s tariff signals, the politics of New York’s vote, and the way those headlines filter into liquidity creation via trade flows. On jobs, we unpack an ADP beat that hides softness in information and professional services while healthcare and utilities carry the print, and we talk frankly about how AI threatens a quarter of tasks, particularly in admin and legal support.Finally, we ask a contrarian question: is Apple right to avoid an AI capex arms race? Preserving balance sheet flexibility might be the smarter bet if we’re edging toward a collateral recession where financing gets stingier and optionality becomes a moat. Expect volatility, not apocalypse; respect the cadence of liquidity; and plan for violent, normal pullbacks within long trends. If this perspective challenges how you track markets, follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review. What’s your top stress indicator right now?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...
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