The AIAC Podcast: "France? Nothing Good Comes of It"

Date: July 5, 2024
Host: William (Will) Shoki
Guest: Shamira Ibrahim, Francophone Regional Editor at Africa Is a Country

Overview

This week’s episode dives into the tumultuous state of French politics on the eve of the July 7 legislative election—a contest widely seen as a referendum on France’s future. Host Will Shoki is joined by Shamira Ibrahim to unpack the meteoric rise of the far-right National Rally, the challenges facing France’s left, the role of colonial legacies in French politics (particularly in Mayotte), and the ways racism and anti-migrant sentiment intersect with France’s ongoing crisis of identity.

1. France’s Pivotal Election: Setting the Stage

• Recent Context: France is heading into a second round of parliamentary elections after the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, scored 33% of the first-round votes, with the left-wing alliance (Nouveau Front Populaire) at 28% and Macron’s centrist coalition trailing at 21%.

  • The snap election was provoked by Macron after far-right advances in the European Parliament elections ([00:00]–[03:28]).

• Quote:

  "France. Nothing good comes of it."
  — Will Shoki invokes Senegalese filmmaker Djibril Diop Mambéty to set the tone ([00:45]).

• Key Questions:

  • Why did Macron call this election?
  • How did France’s far right become so dominant?
  • What are the implications for Black, Brown, and overseas French populations? ([01:40]–[02:40])

2. The Rise and Rebranding of France’s Far-Right

European Context and Macron's Gamble

• Background:

  • The European Parliament election saw a continent-wide shift to the right; France is not an outlier ([03:28]–[07:02]).
  • Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front) has spent a decade rebranding from an openly extremist, racist party to one with softened, populist credentials ([08:24]–[11:54]).

• Tactics of Rebranding:

  • Ejection of founder Jean-Marie Le Pen ("the devil of the Republic") from the party.
  • Apologizing for antisemitic past; showing empathy at public events; softening language on EU membership.
  • Framing policies in universal populist or economic terms rather than nativist or explicitly racist ones.

• Quote:

  "Instead of actually changing their objectives, they reframed it into more universal themes that resonate with people across classes, across races."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([08:31])

  "Attending protests to show empathy to victims of violence in France…soften policies where, okay, we still want the Euro, but we’re Euro skeptics."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([10:00])

• Substance or Cosmetics?:

  • The rebrand is only surface-level; core anti-migrant and French-identitarian policies remain ([13:20]).
  • Media and establishment parties have adopted or normalized far-right language, further legitimizing National Rally.

3. Colonial Legacies: Mayotte and Overseas France

Mayotte as a Test Case

• Intersection of Migration and Colonialism:

  • Mayotte’s unique status as an overseas French department makes it a laboratory for far-right “test-case” policies (e.g., revoking birthright citizenship) ([15:54]–[29:07]).

• Historical Backdrop:

  • Mayotte became a French department after a controversial post-independence referendum. Its history with the rest of the Comoros archipelago involves coups, French meddling, extractive economics, and traumatic border policies such as the 1995 "visa Balladur", which restricted movement and led to thousands of deaths among migrants ([19:05]–[29:07]).

• Quote:

  "You have to realize that even though we're talking 50 years, for many this is relatively recent history. My mother was born in 1965. She was born as a French national."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([22:55])

  "It's called the Visa of Death…10,000 to 20,000 bodies unclaimed that have died in that ocean trying to make it over to Mayotte."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([25:06]).

• The Far-Right in Mayotte:

  • National Rally enjoys significant support among Mahorais, who see Comorian migrants as scapegoats for decline in public services—echoing anti-migrant narratives on the mainland ([19:00]–[34:06]).
  • Both centrist and right-wing French politicians now back revoking birthright citizenship, highlighting how far-right ideas have permeated mainstream policy ([29:00+]).

• French Discontent and Identity Crisis:

  • Rising secessionist sentiment is less likely, as most locals seek to retain French connection while scapegoating nearby migrants ([31:17]).
  • Mirroring broader French and European trends of blaming migrants for socioeconomic woes ([34:06]–[35:25]).

4. Why Can’t the Left Capitalize?

• Leftist Limitations:

  • The left came second in the first round, but remains fragmented and tainted in the public eye ([36:44]).
  • Internal divisions (Socialist Party vs. France Insoumise, etc.) and the unwillingness of centrist parties to align openly with the radical left.

• The Melanchon Factor:

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, has garnered youth and working-class support but faces relentless negative framing (accusations of antisemitism, lack of “respectability,” etc.).
  • Resembles the experience of leaders like Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn—popular with the grassroots, but excluded by the establishment ([36:44]–[40:48]).

• Quote:

  "A sloppy parallel to make... is kind of, if you want to think about the Sanders movement in 2016… an emergent force on the right supported by youth, heavy social support, yet still rejected by the establishment stalwarts."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([39:55])

• Media & Political Framing:

  • False equivalences drawn between "far right" and "Islamo-leftism".
  • Terms like "Islamo-gauchisme" and "wokisme" are used as new boogeymen, tying race, religion, and left politics together as threats ([41:45]–[45:44]).
  • Quote:

    "Race and religion are inextricably linked. The brown and black population in France are overwhelmingly Muslim."
    — Shamira Ibrahim ([42:00])

5. Sport and Culture: The Role of France’s Ambassadors

• Football, Racism, and Representation:

  • Black and brown French athletes (e.g., Kylian Mbappé) have assumed a precarious "broker" role—being simultaneously symbols of French unity and targets of racist attacks ([46:09]–[51:57]).
  • Public pressure on celebrities and sports figures to take a stand against rising racism and the far right.

• Quote:

  "For them, for the young, for the youth. They view what is happening right now as a call to action, a need to stand, a need to mobilize as influencers, as anybody with any sort of social capital to really vocalize the crisis."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([47:40])

  "It is their time to step up and step out. But, you know, they're balancing the disappointment of their fans with also their personal safety."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([51:20])

6. What Lies Ahead? The Election’s Possible Outcomes

• Expected Scenarios:

  • High turnout in the runoff is likely and will benefit the center and left—if alliances can be consolidated ([53:04]).
  • Some centrist or left candidates have agreed to stand down in constituencies to defeat the National Rally.
  • Regardless of the final tally, the far-right's normalization and resilience are assured. ("They're going to come out on top regardless for where they have been in the last 10 years." — [53:44])

• Quote:

  "It really depends on which politicians are willing to do what they're subscribed to do as politicians, which is meet the needs of the people."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([54:36])

7. Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Far-Right Success:

  "This has been a very invested project that, with the rebranding, can obscure the finer details, not just because of how the party has perpetuated it, but also because of how the media has softened their language."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([13:20])

• On the Political Use of Mayotte:

  "Now Bayota has been used as a test place to look at: can we sow discord to be able to put in nativist language? Can we sow discord to be able to actually move towards change the constitution?"
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([27:20])

• On scapegoating:

  "It is much easier to look at the blame of other people who are fighting for resources and look at them as villains, as opposed to looking at people in a shared struggle for autonomy, independence, and just self-sustaining quality of life."
  — Shamira Ibrahim ([32:22])

8. Memorable Moments

• Personal Insight:
  • Shamira Ibrahim underscores her connection to the topic, having Comorian heritage and giving personal and historical depth to the Mayotte discussion ([19:05]–[29:07]).
• Rich Contextualization:
  • References to French popular culture, from Mbappé and Aya Nakamura to the legacies of French colonialism, tie the episodes themes to broader questions of identity and belonging ([46:09]–[51:57]).
• Political Stakes:
  • The election is pitched as not just about policy, but existential questions of France’s future as a plural, republican state.

9. Key Timestamps

• [00:00]–[03:28]: Introduction and framing of France’s political crisis
• [08:24]–[13:20]: Far-right rebranding and party strategy
• [15:54]–[29:07]: The case of Mayotte, Comoros, and the colonial legacy
• [31:17]–[35:25]: Politics of scapegoating and operations like “Wambushu”
• [36:44]–[41:50]: The predicament of the French left, Mélenchon’s role
• [42:00]–[46:11]: Islamo-leftism, racism, and the French political imagination
• [46:09]–[51:57]: The role of sports and celebrities in today’s political climate
• [53:04]–[55:10]: Predictions and the significance of this election

Conclusion

This episode offers a panoramic, deeply informed look at a defining moment in French and European politics—combining sharp historical analysis with the immediacy of current events, and centering the often overlooked perspectives from France's overseas departments. The conversation underscores the high stakes of this election for migrants, minorities, and the imperiled promise of a plural France.

For Further Investigation

• AIAC's essays on Martinique and discontent in the French overseas territories
• Coverage of the Euro football tournament and its intersections with identity politics in France
• Context on Operation Wambushu and policy changes in Mayotte

Host: William Shoki
Guest: Shamira Ibrahim
Podcast: The AIAC Podcast by Africa Is a Country
Date: July 5, 2024