GovDiscovery AI Podcast – Ep. 75: Michael Robbins, AUVSI President & CEO: Drones and the Future of Warfare

Date: January 29, 2026
Host: Mike Shanley
Guest: Michael Robbins, President & CEO, AUVSI

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Shanley sits down with Michael Robbins, President and CEO of the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI), to explore the rapidly evolving world of autonomous systems in defense—especially drones and robotics. Their discussion covers the state of U.S. defense autonomy, policy developments, manufacturing and supply chain challenges, the dual-use nature of new technologies, lessons from Ukraine and Israel, and where future opportunities lie for industry newcomers and established players alike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of the U.S. Defense Uncrewed Market

• Early Autonomous Transformation Era: The market is shifting towards mainstream adoption of autonomous solutions as technology matures. The bottlenecks are now more about acquisition, integration and acceptance in armed forces than technical capabilities. (00:29)
• Strong Demand Signal: The 2025 Congressional defense reconciliation package (HR1) included $12 billion for autonomous systems—unprecedented direct funding for autonomy programs. (00:29–01:30)
  • Quote: "For the first time really ever in this industry, there's an actual demand signal and money that comes with that." – Michael Robbins (00:56)
• Industry Implications: Heavy competition, new opportunities for both established and emerging companies as the warfighter's needs shift. (01:30–02:08)

2. How the $12B is Being Allocated

• All Domains Funding: Funding spans aerial, surface, and subsurface (maritime) systems. Significant priority given to manned-unmanned teaming in the Navy and hybrid fleets. (02:20)
• Tiered Approach in Aerial Systems: From advanced collaborative combat aircraft to large-scale low-cost FPV drone acquisition (“drone dominance” program). (02:20–03:59)
  • Quote: "We need more exquisite systems as well as... things that we don't expect to get back." – Michael Robbins (03:48)

3. The Role of Traditional Primes and New Entrants

• Dual Strategy: Major defense primes both innovate internally and partner with startups/“neoprimes.”
  • Examples: Boeing & Palantir, RTX & SHIELD AI, Northrop Grumman & Firefly Aerospace. (04:18)
• Collaborative Innovation: Established companies use their manufacturing muscle; disruptors bring edge innovation. (04:18–05:25)

4. U.S. Manufacturing & Supply Chain Resilience

• Re-Industrialization Focus: Administration drives “Build in America” across government (DoD, Commerce, FCC). (05:49)
• Rare Earth Elements Example: Vulcan Elements (U.S.-based rare earth magnets) is decoupling critical supply from China, aided by government support and funding. (05:49–08:07)
• Import Restrictions: FCC has banned importation of foreign drones/components—signals push for domestic manufacturing, but with expected waivers/exemptions as the industry transitions. (08:07–09:51)
  • Quote: "What is your plan to build in the U.S.? ...What is your plan to manufacture here?" – Michael Robbins (09:25)

5. Securing Critical Minerals

• Multi-Pronged Strategy Needed: U.S. companies are pursuing new mining, recycling, and sourcing options to reduce dependency on China. (10:37)
• Regulatory and Environmental Hurdles: Rare earths aren't truly rare, but refining/mining is entangled in expensive regulations. (10:37–12:22)
  • Recommendation: Whole-of-nation approach crucial, including recycling and easing domestic mining barriers.

6. Advancements and Limitations in Battery Technology

• Rapid Battery Progress: Lithium and other battery chemistries are becoming more efficient, but R&D is also exploring entirely new chemical solutions. (12:51)
• Operational Constraints: Batteries are still a limiting factor, especially for long-range or cold-weather missions, driving exploration of hybrid (fuel/electric) power systems. (14:44)
  • Quote: "To ultimately meet the objectives of some of the warfighters today, batteries tend to be one of the more limiting factors." – Michael Robbins (14:32)

7. Commercial vs. Defense R&D

• Dual-Use Reality: Most new technology has civilian and defense applications, blurring lines between sectors. Industry-led R&D increasingly outpaces government labs. (14:54–16:32)
• Example: Applied Intuition started as a commercial venture and now drives significant defense innovation.

8. Cybersecurity in Uncrewed Systems

• Corporate & Product Security: Compliance with CMMC and robust supply chain verification are now baseline requirements for defense contracts. (16:42)
• Green UAS Program: AUVSI’s initiative (with Altana) supports companies’ supply chain and cyber penetration verification. (16:42–18:31)
  • Quote: “We can't put systems downrange that are going to put our men and women in uniform at risk because of a cyber incident.” – Michael Robbins (18:10)

9. Global Defense Drone Markets & Lessons from Ukraine

• Ukrainian Innovation: Ukraine leads rapid iteration and adaptation at the front line, but lacks manufacturing independence and is exposed to Chinese supply chain risks. (18:48)
• Global Players: Taiwan, Israel, South Korea, Japan, and now Europe are expanding local manufacturing and innovation ecosystems to reduce reliance on adversarial supply. (21:00–23:01)
  • Quote: “Scale matters in a war of attrition, you've got to be able to produce. And right now it's something we're still lagging on.” – Michael Robbins (23:46)

10. U.S. Lessons Learned & Future Warfare Trends

• Need for Scale and Autonomy: U.S. must regain “arsenal of democracy” status. Autonomy is essential for operations in denied/contested environments (jammed GPS, no SATCOM). (23:46–26:08)
  • Quote: “Autonomy is really important for the future of warfare because... radio communications, reliance on GPS, all that's out the window. So therefore autonomy becomes really, really important.” – Michael Robbins (25:20)
• Pre-Programmed, Operator-Light Missions: Future systems must execute missions independently, only loosely “tethered” to human oversight.

11. Competitive Landscape and Opportunities for New Entrants

• Market Not Saturated: Constantly evolving tech means opportunities remain for newcomers, especially those looking beyond immediate lessons from current conflicts. (26:35)
• Defensive Innovations are Underserved: While offensive drone capabilities draw attention, counter-drone/defensive solutions present massive future market opportunities. (26:35–28:36)

12. If You’re a Startup: Where to Focus?

• Manufacturing for Scale: Solving U.S. drone and component manufacturing is the biggest opportunity—whether direct or as a contract manufacturer for innovators lacking production capacity. (28:55)
  • Quote: “If I was starting a company today, I think I would focus on manufacturing because we are so far behind in that space…” – Michael Robbins (29:00)

13. AUVSI—Engagement and Upcoming Events

• Advocacy and Events: AUVSI is the largest nonprofit for uncrewed systems, focused on advocacy, research, and global trade shows.
  • March 24–26, Düsseldorf: Exponential Europe (7,000–8,000 attendees)
  • May 11–14, Detroit: Exponential USA (10,000+ attendees)
• Membership Benefits: Policy influence, networking, educational resources, access to leading events with major global defense and commercial leaders. (30:18–32:31)

14. Closing Thought: The “So What” for the Defense Industrial Base

• Autonomy as Future Warfare Cornerstone: Outsized impact of autonomy means first contact in wars will increasingly be machine vs. machine, ideally reducing human casualties.
  • Quote: “Robots don't bleed. They are the future of warfare... first contact is going to be robots.” – Michael Robbins (32:52)
• Build and Plan Today: Invest, innovate, and prepare supply chains now to deter conflicts and ensure readiness.
  • Salient Quote (SHIELD AI reference): “The greatest wars are the ones that are never fought.” (33:57)

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Funding Momentum:
  “For the first time... there’s an actual demand signal and money that comes with that. It’s tremendous.” – Michael Robbins (00:56)

• On Manufacturing and Supply Chain Risks:
  “We are kind of to some extent at their mercy when it comes to some of these critical rare earth minerals.” – Michael Robbins (06:52)

• On Battery Tech as a Constraint:
  “Batteries tend to be one of the more limiting factors...” – Michael Robbins (14:32)

• On Cybersecurity and Trust:
  “We can't put systems downrange that are going to put our men and women in uniform at risk because of a cyber incident.” – Michael Robbins (18:10)

• On Lessons from Ukraine:
  “Scale matters in a war of attrition, you’ve got to be able to produce.” – Michael Robbins (23:46)

• On Building for the Future:
  “Plan for the future and then understand your opponent and their weaknesses and build towards that.” – Michael Robbins (33:13)

• On Autonomy and Deterrence:
  “Robots don’t bleed. They are the future of warfare... The greatest wars are the ones that are never fought.” – Michael Robbins, citing SHIELD AI (32:52, 33:57)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:29] – State of U.S. defense uncrewed market & funding surge
• [02:20] – Allocation of new funding: maritime, aerial, hybrid strategies
• [04:18] – Defense primes: Innovate or partner?
• [05:49] – U.S. manufacturing and critical supply chain developments
• [10:37] – Securing critical minerals: mining, recycling, regulations
• [12:51] – Energy/battery technology status and limits
• [16:42] – Cybersecurity as baseline requirement
• [18:48] – Global markets: Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, Europe
• [23:46] – Key lessons from Ukraine: scale & autonomy
• [26:35] – Competitive landscape and advice to startups
• [28:55] – If you’re a startup: why focus on manufacturing
• [30:18] – How to engage with AUVSI & upcoming events
• [32:52] – Final “so what” & the future of automated warfare

Takeaways for Listeners

• The uncrewed and autonomous defense market is rapidly transitioning from R&D toward wide-scale adoption, with unprecedented public funding and urgency.
• U.S. policy and industry trends are rapidly shifting to prioritize domestic manufacturing, supply chain resilience, and industrial capacity (especially around critical minerals and batteries).
• The competitive landscape is open, with pressing needs for both offensive and counter-drone solutions, especially from innovative startups and new entrants.
• Key lessons from ongoing conflicts (Ukraine, Israel) emphasize the need for autonomy, manufacturing scale, and agile, resilient supply chains—these shape U.S. and allied strategy now.
• Events like Exponential Europe and Exponential USA are key industry convenings for networking, education, and forging partnerships.

Listen to the full episode for more insights and analysis on government contracting, global growth, and the evolving strategic landscape of autonomous warfare.