The Air Show – Episode Summary
Podcast: The Air Show
Hosts: Brian Sumers (A), Brett Snyder (B)
Episode Title: Allegiant and Sun Country: An Obvious Combination?
Date: January 29, 2026
Guests: None (Jon Ostrower, regular co-host, is absent)
Theme: Business of the Sky – An in-depth discussion on the announced merger of Allegiant and Sun Country Airlines, exploring whether this is as "obvious" a combination as it might seem, its strategic merits, and industry implications.
Overview
In this episode, Brian Sumers and Brett Snyder dig into the forthcoming merger between Allegiant and Sun Country, two U.S. airlines with distinct but somewhat parallel business models. With differing headlines on their respective publications—Brian seeing the merger as “an obvious combination,” Brett expressing skepticism—this conversation explores the rationale, risks, and potential synergies of the deal, as well as broader takeaways for the U.S. discount airline sector.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Merger Details and Rationale ([03:19])
- Deal Structure: Allegiant acquires Sun Country. The Allegiant brand and management team will remain, with Sun Country’s CEO Jude Bricker joining Allegiant’s board.
- Offer Breakdown: Sun Country shareholders receive $18.89/share (but only $4.10 in cash, the rest in Allegiant stock, so the value will fluctuate). After the deal, Allegiant owners will have two-thirds of the new company.
- Regulatory Perspective: The merger is expected to face little regulatory resistance due to minimal network overlap (only one redundant route: Appleton–Fort Myers).
- Quote: “There is virtually no chance of regulators blocking this…just about as little overlap as any two airlines could have.” – Brett [04:02]
2. Why Does This Make Sense (Or Not)? ([05:19])
- Network Complementarity: Sun Country’s stronghold is Minneapolis (MSP), while Allegiant focuses on big leisure destinations, mostly avoiding MSP.
- Industry Rationale: Brian notes that consolidation among U.S. discount airlines has long been discussed; Jude Bricker himself has been candid about the inevitability.
- Quote: “If there was a logical merger partner for sun country, it would probably be Allegiant.” – Brian [06:20]
- Model Differences: Sun Country’s MSP-centric, scheduled, and quasi-hub model contrasts with Allegiant’s focus on destination bases; this could cause “integration weirdness.”
- Quote: “They have that similar but opposite model, which is a weird way to put it…” – Brett [07:45]
3. Potential Challenges & Weirdness in Integration ([08:50])
- Overlap in Cities: Example of Charlotte, where Allegiant serves Concord (outbound), and Sun Country serves Charlotte (inbound from MSP).
- Brand and Model Integration: Will the combined airline keep both models alive in the same city, or risk consolidating and losing local relevance?
- Quote: “Will it keep this split persona...or will it make the mistake of trying to consolidate that?” – Brett [09:16]
4. Attractive Aspects of the Deal ([10:29])
- Amazon Cargo Business: Sun Country’s Amazon contract offers a “good hedge,” but not a primary reason for the deal.
- Quote: “It’s not very lucrative, but it doesn’t lose money.” – Brett [10:32]
- Charter Business: Both airlines are strong in charter; not much to gain by merging this aspect.
- Synergies: Unclear what operational/schedule synergies are achievable since both already excel at asset flexibility and niche operations.
5. Who Benefits Most? ([12:10])
- Sun Country as Winner: With limited growth paths and strong performance, a premium buyout is a good (possibly only) outcome for Sun Country.
- Quote: “Congrats to Sun Country. It’s great.” – Brett [13:02]
6. Jude Bricker’s Role and Legacy ([13:45])
- Reviving Sun Country: Bricker took a “zombie airline” and made it successful through various strategies like moving into cargo and charters.
- IPO Success: Apollo’s 2018 acquisition and the 2021 IPO were lucrative for Bricker and investors.
- Ceiling for Growth: Despite attempts, Sun Country could not expand beyond MSP and was stuck as a spill carrier.
- Best Fit for Merger: Allegiant seen as the only logical partner; other combinations (e.g., with Alaska or Breeze) were unlikely or illogical.
7. Risks to Allegiant ([16:01])
- Delta’s Influence at MSP: Continued Sun Country/allegiant presence in MSP depends on staying in Delta’s good graces.
- Quote: “You serve at the pleasure of the big bad widget…” – Brett [16:07]
- Fleet and Labor Arguments: Skepticism about alleged labor/fleet advantages for Allegiant; the carrier already has its fleet orders, and crew shortages are not critical (except, perhaps, for Spirit).
- Allegiant’s “Get Bigger” Attempts: Previous expansion ideas (family fun centers, resorts, golf software) have failed; this acquisition may be a bid to finally scale.
8. International Expansion Arguments ([18:54])
- No Real International Play: Allegiant could already go international but has been slow to act (“super slow to evolve”); buying Sun Country doesn’t solve existing hurdles.
- Quote: “If it really wanted to fly internationally, it could have done that by now.” – Brett [19:15]
- Viva JV Is Irrelevant: The merger does not replace the failed Allegiant/Viva joint venture (“makes no sense at all”).
9. Specific Minnesota Risks & Cultural Concerns ([26:10])
- Brand Loyalty: The “Minnesota Nice” ethos of Sun Country is beloved locally; shifting to Allegiant’s brand risks alienating this devoted base.
- Frequent Flier Differences: Sun Country offers more amenities (free water, GDS sales), which Allegiant doesn’t—so there’s a risk customer loyalty takes a hit.
- Quote: “If Allegiant gets rid of that, does that ruin the bond with the Minnesota Nice?” – Brett [25:10]
- Labor Cost Integration: Sun Country pilots are paid better, potentially causing labor friction.
10. Meta Takeaways: Is This Just About Money? ([28:09])
- Money Over Strategy: Both agree that, despite the “synergy” talk, this is mostly about size and financials rather than strategic fit.
- Actual Motives? Industry talking points often differ from true motives; the real rationale may never be fully disclosed.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- “There is virtually no chance of regulators blocking this...just about as little overlap as any two airlines could have.” – Brett [04:02]
- “If there was a logical merger partner for Sun Country, it would probably be Allegiant.” – Brian [06:20]
- “Sun Country only gets to be in Minneapolis at scale because Glenn Howenstein of Delta permits it.” – Brian [22:51]
- “If Allegiant gets rid of that, does that ruin the bond with the Minnesota Nice?” – Brett [25:10]
- “I’ve never really met anyone who loves the Allegiant brand.” – Brian [25:55]
- “Maybe the problem is we’re just thinking too hard about this. This is probably not about strategy...It’s about the money.” – Brett [28:09]
- “[Jude Bricker] has made more money off of, like, 20 to 50 airplanes than any CEO ever...maybe Bill Frankie at America West.” – Brian [14:02]
Timestamps of Key Segments
| Timestamp | Topic
|---|---
| 03:19 | Brian outlines terms of the Allegiant–Sun Country merger
| 04:02 | Regulatory approval and lack of network overlap
| 05:19 | Why the merger might make sense—and why not
| 07:45 | MSP as the integration wildcard
| 08:50 | Integration “weirdness”—Charlotte example
| 10:29 | Amazon cargo business, charter, and potential synergies
| 12:10 | Who benefits: is Sun Country the winner?
| 13:45 | Jude Bricker’s legacy and Sun Country's growth ceiling
| 16:01 | Risks for Allegiant, particularly Delta’s role at MSP
| 18:54 | Allegiant’s international ambitions and VIVA JV
| 25:10 | Brand, amenities differences; risk of losing Minnesota customers
| 28:09 | Money vs. strategy; “synergy” talk as a Wall Street pitch
Tone & Style
- Both hosts are witty, candid, and bring an insider’s skepticism, frequently poking fun at “synergy” jargon and airline PR, with light-hearted, self-aware humor.
- The tone is informed but irreverent—ample industry knowledge, but not afraid to call out when “overthinking” might be happening.
Conclusion / Main Takeaways
- For Sun Country, this is an excellent exit, given limited future growth prospects and strong local loyalty.
- For Allegiant, it’s a dicey but bold bid to scale up via acquisition instead of failed ancillary projects.
- Integration is likely to be more complex than headlines suggest—both operationally (due to different models/markets) and culturally (especially in MSP).
- Risk factors: Losing “Minnesota Nice” fans, labor integration, and the unknown response from Delta.
- Ultimately, this may be less about synergy and more about size and financial engineering—a speculative bet that the combination produces more value than the sum of its parts, even if the real underlying reasons never go public.
For aviation enthusiasts, investors, or industry professionals wanting a candid, well-informed take on the Allegiant–Sun Country deal, this episode offers sharp analysis, plenty of context, and a clear-eyed look at both opportunity and risk.