B (2:37)

Yes, John, I remember I kind of found that my interview with Natalie, who I liked very much, was one of the more sad interviews that I've ever conducted.

A (2:48)

Really? Why?

B (2:49)

Yeah, you know, I enjoyed speaking to her. Natalie's clearly very smart, but it was clear to me that ATR has built an aircraft that probably should catch the interests of the larger US airlines. I learned it's a fuel efficient airplane, it can take off and land on some very short runways like in Santa Monica, and it has modern avionics and it doesn't really have a true competitor because there's no Q4 hundreds being made anymore. But unless we're talking about the remote tundra of the Canadian wilderness, North American carriers haven't shown much interest. And I asked ATR or the ATR people if they were upset about this and they were kind of honest and they said, yeah, we're a little bit disappointed that the larger US airlines don't take us seriously.

A (3:40)

It won't surprise you. I have a bit of a different take here. I mean look, regional turboprops in the US have been on the decline for the last 20 plus years. I mean when you look at the departure of everything from the shorts 360, the Saab 340s and 2000s, you look at Jetstream 41S, Embraer DRJ120, Brasilias, you look at the dash 8, 100, 200, 300, 400 from bombarding into Havilland going away. And yeah, ATR used to be a big part of American Eagle. Those are all gone. So like this market for them is effectively empty of regional turboprops. So let me just build on this idea a bit. I spent a considerable amount of time with ATR and its leadership last year, including last spring in Toulouse where they're based right next to Airbus. The it really actually was a fascinating visit. They laid out for me what effectively a multi step US strategy they are preparing to unfurl. The air current actually got through the first look at it. This is even before the JSX deal was formally signed that turned into an 11 page special report from the air current last fall. ATR can only go up from where they were before JSX Silver Airways went bankrupt and there was really only a single ancient passenger, ATR 72, occasionally flying around Florida for an airline called Intercoastal Aviation, left in the Us one airplane. So let's split this episode into two obvious parts. Number one, JSX and why it wants the airplane. And two, ATR and the future of turboprops in North America.

B (5:18)

That sounds like a good way to split up the episode, John, but I just want to make sure that I heard you properly. You said you did an 11 page report on ATR. That is some impressive journalism, sir. That's.

A (5:31)

Thank you. It was one of those deep dives that we're known for.

B (5:33)

So let me go into the JSX angle for a moment because that's a company that I know pretty well. I have never seen an airline and technically the JSX people will tell you that they're not an airline, they're more of an air carrier. But I'm gonna call it an airline for simplicity. I've never seen an airline come back from a near death experience like this. If we go back 18 months, CEO Alex Wilcox was railing a about regulatory capture. He was saying with some truth to it that two very large airlines in Texas were trying to use the Washington regulatory system to put him out of business. It was not a good time for jsx. We saw a lot of executive turnover. Wilcox never seemed very happy to me. There were employees who talked about leaving, but actually many of those people ended up staying. And then the leadership in Washington changed and things have improved very quickly. We saw all the JSX people this week. Morale seems good and Wilcox seems quite jovial. And just a quick aside, John. Alex and I, we've made up following our big fight. I had pushed back against him when I thought he made too many complaints of my work. We always like to be right. We like corrections when they're necessary. But Alex was, was had some complaints of the nitpicking variety. Okay, continuing here. For those not familiar, JSX has been using ERJ 135s and 145s with 30 seats, mostly on routes below 1000 miles, regional routes in the United States. So unlike the airlines that we usually cover here, JSX operates under Part 135 of FAA regulations. And so it has more latitude with certain things over an American Eagle or a United Express. Its pilots don't need to have 1500 hours of experience before they're hired. Pilots can fly past 65. And then importantly, the airline can use FBOS and not those main terminals. So that's often the clear differentiator here. Because JSX uses FBOS, you can arrive about 20 minutes before departure and still make your Flight up until recently the airline had really light security. It was almost like a private jet. They're now doing more of a TSA style operation. But still it all moves a lot faster than at the terminal. So back to the airplane that they've been using, the E135 and 145 has a few drawbacks. One, they're not made, they haven't been made in years, although there are a lot of them available. Two, they use a lot of fuel. And then three, the airplane itself doesn't open any new opportunities. So using FBOS allows JSX to go into airports without a passenger terminal or tsa. But the Runway still has to be nice and long, the same as American Eagle or United Express or Delta Connection. So that brings us to the atr. The ATR can what it can land, take off anywhere. Tell us about this experiment, John.

A (8:39)

Okay, well just a quick note on the Embraers. Yes, they are very much out of production, have been for a long time as Embraer moved up to the bigger E1, 70, 75, 90, 95 and now in the E2s. But there's a lot of life left in those ERJs that JSX owns outright. That's an important piece here. They can have an extremely relaxed utilization and it's kind of like Allegiant's original strategy but on the other end of the economic spectrum for commercial air travel. So for the leases, JSX is leasing four ATR 42, six hundreds to start. The 42 is the smaller of the two ATRs and quite rare, typically between 40, 50 seats roughly. But the airline got this first airplane through lessor True Nord, which pulled the airplane from Silver Airways actually before they went bust. Wilcox's mum on the terms of the lease of course anorically discuss what if any financial support ATR is providing there. But the leases mean that they will need to be flying the ATRs a lot more than the ERJs to cover their costs.

B (9:40)

John, I just want to say you and I did separate interviews so we learned some different things. And Wilcox told me that JSX is getting maintenance support from atr, which is assigning two employees basically to the JS SX account and also spare parts. ATR wants everything to go perfectly and has put in some money to that effort.

A (10:03)

And that I think really underscores exactly how ATR sees this as a starting point for their their trajectory in the us. You're right, it is a test for jsx. When I was working on the special report Last fall, Wilcoxon, in an interview told me point blank, he said, quote, we've structured it in a way that gives us optionality. And if it's an unmitigated disaster, people refuse to get on an ATR or we have some other issue with, we can get out at very low cost. Right. That was our imperative. I'm not going to bet the company on this. This is an experiment. So far with the limited data that they've got, the net promoter scores are effectively pulling even with the embraers with some important fine print when adjusting for yet to be installed Starlink, WI FI and when the flights are on time. So it's. But generally that they don't see any active aversion to their passengers flying turboprops versus jets.

B (10:54)

Yeah, that doesn't surprise me in the slightest. The west side of Los Angeles near Santa Monica Airport has immense wealth. And we know that JSX customers really value convenience. So if you are not in Los Angeles and you look at a map, you would say, why don't these people just go to LAX? It's only 8.4 miles away from Santa Monica. But let me tell you folks, that is not a pleasant drive. And I know that people can be skittish about turboprops. That could be an issue here, particularly if JSX expands to other airports with the atr. But if I lived on the west side of Los Angeles and just. I just want to say thank God that I don't, but if I did, I would gladly fly on that airplane to fly to Scottsdale or Las Vegas, the first two destinations. I'd save time and I would save drama. Now, John, I did something this week that I rarely do anymore because I'm old and I'm jaded and I actually don't like flying as much as a lot of people who may listen to this show. I actually took the joyride that JSX offered on the atr. You did as well. We were up in the air for about 25 to 30 minutes. What do you think of the experience?

A (12:04)

In fact, it was my first time flying on any atr, believe it or not. Look, I've been in the ATR factory or flying the simulator more times than I can count, but never one in the air. Fun fact. Last time I was at atr, they let me do some really fun stuff in the simulator. And if you run into me at an event somewhere, ask to see the video. It's wild.

B (12:24)

Okay.

A (12:25)

I did spend plenty of time on Dash 8s of various vintages, including Horizon Porter and Colgan's Q4 hundreds. That is roughly a CRJ fuselage. And for those of us who have flown CRJs in the US particularly the 200-00, that is a tight fit. ATR is roomier. It is a larger cross section, and yes, it is surprisingly quiet for a turboprop. It is a less powerful engine than the Q4 hundreds, which is a bigger airplane and faster also. So we took off right into magic hour over Southern California, bounced up to about 11,000ft, flew northwest, did a loop, then came right back into Santa Monica. It was a lovely 30 minutes in the air. And really, Southern California, for all of the sort of stereotypical gripes that exist in the world, is just an absolutely, spectacularly beautiful spot to be in. Beyond that, I think a lot of this experiment comes down to a skittishness that is perceived about turboprops. I've come to appreciate through my reporting that that comes from a lot of different places. There's a lot of industry dogma and long executive memories about an accident from the 1990s with an ATR and really how regional jets, and the introduction of regional jets from a comfort and speed perspective really shifted customer perceptions about what they expect for regional flying. So ATR and JSX right now are betting there's a generational shift in favor of turboprops because there aren't the same associations. And when you. And when you ask ATR about this, they say, well, okay, look, when you look out, all the new airplanes and aircraft that are. That are coming out, the EVTOLs and the hybrid electric aircraft and all of those various new platforms, they all have props, so there is something that they're trying to draft off of in terms of a sense that this is a back to the future type approach to customer perception.

B (14:13)

John, I think it's interesting that you've never been on an atr. Interestingly, I have been on a few, mainly in French Polynesia on both Air Moana and Air Tahiti. I bring that up because I was actually interested to see this airplane with JSX because I thought it might be quieter or more luxurious on the inside, because JSX tends to be a premium operator. But it was actually exactly the same. It was a bit loud, nothing crazy. The seats were rock hard and they were overhead bins. A very standard ATR experience, just with a 12 configuration instead of a 2 2.

A (14:52)

And that's the 30 seat cap, right?

B (14:54)

Yeah. I bring this up in part because it shows some of what I believe to be the genius of JSX So I am an occasional paid customer of JSX because they fly jets from Burbank Airport near me and I flew them last month from Las Vegas. What I like about JSX is that they know what they are. So they've managed to position themselves as a quasi luxury brand and almost kind of like a semi private jet. But it's kind of like really just convenient transportation. The seats aren't particularly luxurious. Even on the 135s and the 145s you get some shelf stable snacks and some free drinks. But it's pretty much like first class, say on an error 175. So what makes JSX worth flying is not necessarily the on the plane experience. It's more about that time you can check in 20 minutes before the flight and you don't have friction. So I talked to Wilcox about this and he said, look, you know, we could put a lot of money making the interior of this airplane luxurious, but it wouldn't be worth the price because what we're selling is an easier trip to, to Scottsdale or Vegas. I find that interesting and I think it's a pretty good strategy.

A (16:08)

Well, actually I think it's something that actually may limit potentially the success of ATR in the United States as they want to get to the bigger airlines. Because fundamentally we are talking about flights, you know, anywhere between 100 and 400 nautical miles in the U.S. just 4% of those shorter trips are taken by regional aircraft, which I find really fascinating because fundamentally ATR knows that for the actual amount of time that you spend in the air, it's going to get eaten up through the airport experience. So the value of using small airports and regional travel is to bypass that mess, which you can only do within a 135 model. Given the size of the airports, given the security processes, all of that makes JSX like its value proposition. Can that work for United, Delta and American at an o' Hare or a dfw? I don't know. But look, I appreciate the look on the commercial side of things, but one of the big issues here, I think, which speaks in favor of JSX's push here, is really about airports that they can access. When you talk about like the benefits as a public scheduled charter model under 135. So when you combine the ability to use non part 139 airports, of which there are only 500 in the US the big ones, then a turboprop opens up another 1500 airports on top of the 2000 that the ERJ can reach with its better Runway performance. So a lot of different things at play here. But look, I think you have to go one level deeper here, which is not like what airports can you get to. It's like what happens from a passenger experience perspective when you get to the airport. And there are no Ubers or rental cars available at an airport that is significantly less developed than what a customer traditionally expects from a big carrier. Wilcox says that driverless cars will fix that, but I don't know how realistic of an answer that is in the medium term. Overall, I think there's a lot of gas in the tank for using non traditional airports and jsx, particularly with turboprops, for all of those reasons. Brian, what do you think?

B (18:11)

You know, I've learned not to bet against Alex Wilcox. Not sure if you know this, John, but I'm a very skeptical person by nature.

A (18:20)

You skeptical?

B (18:21)

Ye. But the thing is, this generally serves me very well, covering airlines, because I think we need to be honest here. It's really hard to innovate in this industry. So I talk to a lot of people who come in with these grand ideas and then they tend to fail because aviation doesn't change much over time. So I remember, you know, almost 10 years ago when I was first talking to Wilcox, I was skeptical. It wasn't that I thought that he was going to fail because the first routes in 2016 were from Burbank, which I know very well. And I kind of knew that there'd be an interest in this product at Burbank and a customer base willing to pay for it. What I didn't expect, and Alex will remind me that I was pretty skeptical, was that he could build a sustainable business with flights on the east coast and west coast and in Texas too, growing in Florida, a company that has, you know, 50 plus aircraft and Wilcox tells me is within striking distance of $1 billion annually in revenue. Like he has built something impressive here, you know, Wilcox has more or less achieved what he set out to do and I'm kind of impressed. I know he's going to love to hear that. I asked him about a logical next step. Certainly he could go into all those airports he's talking about. He told me an IPO is possible, although he said not anytime soon. Maybe a few years or a couple years away, but good on him, I say.

A (19:45)

So when you look at all this, like, what do you see as the biggest risks to JSX's operation?

B (19:51)

There's really obvious things. We know that JSX must have very high operating costs because of the airplane, the jet airplane that it flies. Any pullback in consumer spending is going to hit it very hard. We know that the prices that it charges can be at or above first class. And I think it's reasonable to think that people would give up JSX in a downturn and just add a little bit more time or friction to their trip. There's always the fear of terrorism or an accident. Wilcox doesn't have much of a filter, so he can be fun to talk to for journalists. He told me that his biggest fear with the atr, it's that someone walks into a propeller and that would end turboprop flying real fast. So he said, everybody's being very, very, very careful. There are other things that I guess could happen but don't seem too likely. You know, what if larger airlines decide that they really want to fight jsx, that they're tired of losing traffic to him? I know that kind of happened in the Biden administration, and larger airlines got close to making life miserable for jsx, but they didn't knock it out. JSX is still going strong. And when I say bigger airlines, I don't mean all the airlines. Of course. JetBlue and United are partners, so we're talking American and Southwest. Both of those airlines lead traffic to JSX in Texas. And then Southwest has to deal with the west coast as well. I do wonder what happens if these airlines get really frisky. What if they tried to compete commercially instead of going to Washington? If you remember we talked about before, when JSX launched, it had a lot of elements of a real private jet. Like you went to the FBO and you basically got right on the airplane. Now you got security. The airline is more popular, so the lines to check in can be longer. It's still a good product, but it is a product that, say, American Airlines could copy if it wanted to get really free. Risky. Like American could use its main terminal. Maybe it would have valet parking for customers on competitive routes. Maybe special security screening. American could probably guarantee customers could make the flight if they arrived 20 to 30 minutes before departure. Maybe they'd use their close escape. Not giving them any ideas here. Maybe some bonus miles. I don't even think they'd have to use a special airplane because JSX interiors, they're not that special. Look, I don't see American doing anything like this, but it is possible. Remember, before, basic economy legacies match spirit, and that cost them money as well. So sometimes you gotta spend Money to mess with a competitor. All right, John, that's enough talking by me. Let's turn to the ATR 42. Can you tell us about why it doesn't sell very well here in North America?

A (22:40)

Okay, sitting here in 2026, there are only two manufacturers of readily available regional aircraft. Embraer with its jets, and ATR with its props. Atr, for those of our listeners that aren't Familiar, is a 50:50 joint venture between Airbus and Leonardo of Italy. Bombardier, which had a business for both props and regional jets, sold the Q400, which created DE Havilland Canada, which is currently in a dormant production state, and the CRJ to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to create mhirj. That airplane is out of production as well. Yes, the ATR 42600 is a rare bird indeed. Here's the thing. It's the shorter of the pair, but also faster by about 30 knots than the ATR 72. The ATR 42 first flew in 1984 and the 72 followed in 1988 and has been continuously updated. Like, when you think about various airplanes that have just an incredible staying power, you'd put the ATR 72 in that category. You'd put the A320, 737C130, Cessna 172, Bombardier Challenger 650. You know, they're just these airplanes that just have been become platforms for updates. The 600 model is very much in that mold. They put a new A380 inspired glass cockpit in the 600. And ATR has made a host of upgrades to the interior. And in 2021, it moved to offer the PW127 XT engine from Pratt and Whitney. The XT reduced maintenance costs and lowered fuel burn by about 5 or 6%. And it also had the very real effect back then of heading off Embraer's own turboprop concept, which was shelved a few years back after the performance improvement was not going to match up with the cost and the price that airlines are going to have to pay for it. So in the US this is not a popular aircraft. Like when you say that you flew an ATR in French Polynesia, that makes a lot of sense. But the fact that this was my first ATR flight in the US is not surprising. This aircraft operates in many places around the world, like Brazil with Azul and India with Indigo in new opening new regional markets or geographies with mountainous terrain, archipelagos. So, like, you'll see these things running up and down New Zealand and Indonesia and Japan. The bigger ATR 72 was considerably more popular than the 42. There are only about 50 and change of these worldwide. So actually getting a critical mass for a big fleet at JSX is going to be challenging. And at the Paris Air show there was an LOI that the airline actually signed for 20 new ATR 42-600-4 with ATR. What it's going to take to actually pull the trigger on that loi? I asked Wilcox about this. It's going to be a bit and it's probably going to really require a lot of this test to become more mature and prove out the operating model in the aircraft in the US Again.

B (25:44)

John, I realize that there are only so many use cases in the United States for this ATR aircraft, but we have airline group in your backyard in Seattle that owns Hawaiian Airlines. And Hawaiian Airlines needs to replace its Boeing 717s. And I'm not saying that the ATR is the perfect airplane for replacement, but it seems logical given the stage lengths and the location that this should be on the table. And yet when we hear Alaska Air Group executives on these earnings calls talk about the airplanes that they're looking at to replace the 717s or we don't hear a peep about the ATR, what's going on there? And then more broadly, just why has it been so hard for ATR to get into this market?

A (26:34)

So Alaska right now has multiple different markets that they could in theory run turboprops. And Look, Horizon ran Q4 hundreds for ages and really use that airplane for quick hops, regional routes around the Pacific Northwest for Horizon and actually even tried it in Alaska for a little while also. So it's really interesting. So when it comes to Hawaii, Hawaiian actually used to have an ATR 42. And if you remember that when they had their Ohana sub brand, they were flying it around the islands. So there is precedent here. I think one of the things that's gonna be really interesting to watch for the 717 replacement is around the engine. And there is a consideration around how you approach the high cycle environment of, you know, you're flying eight, nine, ten times a day. A turboprop is really good for that. The ATR is designed for that mission. Here's the problem. The Hawaiian 717 seat 128 in two classes. And an ATR 72, 600 maxes out around 78 seats in a very, very, very, very tight configuration. So you're gonna lose some capacity there. However, there are small markets in Hawaii that could accommodate A turboprop. One of the ones that ATR mentioned to me specifically was Lanai. And whether or not there's a, an opportunity there, I think this is going to be one to watch. It might be too small of an airplane. Whether or not Hawaiians are willing to take on a whole fleet of turboprops compared to jets, that's another question. But you know those DC9 legacy designs, they can, they can fly forever. The question is really how the engine maintenance costs go heading into the end of the decade, around 2028, 2029, when they actually want to pull the trigger on a replacement. Setting that aside for a minute back to the mainland, there are a lot of reasons in the US why there has not been a significant uptake of this airplane or significant, any uptake of this airplane at the majors. When you look at the airplane, you'll notice the boarding door is not at the front of the airplane, it's at the back. And that's not a configuration that works in a large hub setting where you need to be boarding through a jetway. Interestingly enough, one of the things that ATR really kind of detailed to me when I was there in the spring was that they're looking at changing that as part of effectively bait for United, Delta and American to evolving the aircraft specifically for a US configuration. The goal that they see is that the ATR 72600 would be reconfigured with just 50 seats instead of anywhere between 68 and 78 passengers, depending on the layout. So effectively a CRJ 550 replacement. So it'd be a three class airplane, a traditional first class. You'd have a coat closet, you know, all the things you'd expect from a CRJ550. We dug into this really significantly in our special report. But look, there's a really interesting business angle to this as well, which is number one, big airline inertia and a bias toward jets. And ultimately, when you run the math, airlines have largely seen and taken a decision to optimize around jets that can fly Those like shorter 350 nautical mile stage lengths, but also all the way up to like 1250 nautical mile flights. Yeah, it's really expensive to fly an aircraft with that kind of range on a short flight. But look, the added cost that comes with short range flying with airplanes that want to fly farther is sometimes outweighed by the savings an airline gets from not having an optimized type like a turboprop. So it's a non starter in that regard. However, 50 seat airplanes are going to start retiring in significant numbers in the years to come. And this is where the opportunity lies for, for ATR to get back into the.

B (30:27)

Yeah, John. I spoke with a senior US Airline executive this week to try to get an idea of why the aircraft isn't popular. It's one thing for airlines not to buy it, but they don't even seem to take it seriously. And one reason that I learned, which is kind of intuitive, is that carriers often believe that there's going to be some sort of revenue penalty that people will pay less or maybe not fly at all if it's a turboprop. And then the other thing that I learned, at least from this one person, is that because there's only only one engine maker, Pratt and Whitney, the engine maintenance on this aircraft can be very costly. What do we know about that?

A (31:06)

Well, I would say it's hard to find inexpensive engine maintenance anywhere in aviation right now. I would say also notably, you wouldn't find a second engine on a turboprop, mostly because the market is significantly, significantly smaller, just for a matter of magnitudes. Airbus runs its factories at north of about 60 a 320s a month. Boeing is at about 42 right now with 737. ATR is about 3 per month. Okay, there's no justification for a second choice of engine on that airframe. But look, when the XT engine was unveiled at the Dubai Air show in 2021, maintenance costs, a 20% savings in maintenance costs and an increased time on wing was front and center. I think this is something that airlines are definitely thinking about. Interestingly enough, fun fact about the atr, it doesn't have an apu. So if you're a pilot, you run what is called hotel mode. And hotel mode actually runs the right engine in a idling state where the rotor is actually stopped, the prop is actually stopped, and the internal turbine runs, generating electricity for the aircraft.

B (32:06)

I learned so much from you, John, that is fascinating.

A (32:09)

Okay, look, big picture. This is ATR's Airbus A300 moment. What do I mean by that? In the 1970s, Airbus let Eastern try in quotes, the A300 with very favorable lease rates to establish the new jet in the US it was a bet that hugely paid off. In the end, Eastern loved it and ended up buying a lot more. And that led to a lot of other carriers buying Airbus aircraft in the US that's ATRs play here. You know, what's old is new. Again, start with the part 135 operators like JSX and then look at the network majors to see if they'll take the bait. As you know, 350 seat regional jets hit retirement over the next several years. The opportunity is huge, but the obstacles are too.

B (32:53)

You've been listening to the Air Show. If you have suggestions or questions for us, or if you're interested in sponsoring the podcast, go to our website, theairshowpodcast.com to get in touch.

A (33:04)

Leo Duran produced and edited this episode. Our theme music is by Joshua Mosher. Thanks for listening and we'll be back soon. Sam.