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A
I'm Brian Summers and I write the Airline Observer.
B
And I'm Brett Snyder, author of Cranky Flyer. You're listening to the Air show, the podcast where we talk about what goes on in the business of the sky. This week we're going to talk about Frontier. The airline has a brand new CEO in Jimmy Dempsey. And there was a great deal of intrigue surrounding the airline recently, not for what it did, but for what it did not do.
A
You mean the fact that it didn't make money last year?
B
It did make no money last year.
A
All right, I have another idea because I know what gets you up out of bed in the morning, and that is network intrigue. So this is an airline that was like, not selling any flights beyond. What was it like April for a very long time, Is that it?
B
Yes, you are correct, sir. That is right. Frontier, as recently as mid January, was still not selling tickets past early April, which is a remarkably short selling window. Even though the Frontiers booking window skews very close in. It doesn't sell much in advance. But still, rumors are swirling about why it wasn't selling beyond April. Then it extended that schedule by one more month into May. And then finally, once we rolled into February, Frontier has now extended through Labor Day. And all is right again in the world, apparently.
A
Now, I know that all the hosts of the Air show are eccentric gentlemen who really love airlines, but I think you may be the most eccentric. So I have this vision of you, and you're going to have to tell me if it's correct, but probably hitting refresh on Friday night, anxiously awaiting the weekly cerium data load so that you could dive into it and analyze it and then tell us all about it. Is that pretty much what you were doing?
B
Yeah, pretty much slap some Kleenex boxes on my feet and call me Howard Hughes here. Let's go. I know that that is true, though. I. I knew that they had filed it. They put the release out that they had extended their schedule. So I knew the data was coming. I was just waiting and it took me some time. Couldn't even get through it all on the weekend. There's a lot to process here. It took me a few days actually to kind of get a handle on this whole thing.
A
And Cerium doesn't even sponsor the show.
B
Cerium, come sponsor the show.
A
All right, let's talk about the data itself. I know that you've had a long time to go over it. You do whatever math that you do. You obsess over it. Tell us the story. Why are we Doing a podcast on Frontiers Network here. Give us the big picture.
B
Well, there are a few, I think pretty good sized storylines going on here. So one thing that is clear, there is a shift this summer. There is absolutely a change. Frontier first of all is returning to growth and it is boosting its frequencies dramatically in its markets. It's also kind of going back to basics. So really building up the traditional big leisure markets, Florida, Vegas and de emphasizing the flying that it had been touting just a couple years ago when things first started going south for the ulccs.
A
But Barry Biffle told us that Florida and Vegas were over right before he was disappeared. As you mentioned, he had this big plan. He revealed it at the beginning of 2024. He talked about markets like Minneapolis would be the future for Frontier. He said at the time that there was way too much capacity in these traditional leisure markets like Florida and a Vegas. He had hoped he could go elsewhere to get those higher fares. Are we saying that the Barry Biffle experiment did not work? I'm just talking about the network here, not him as CEO.
B
Well, this would seem to be an acknowledgement of that. This is going back to where things were before. And now the Minneapolis is of the world apparently are just a dream that we all imagined and poof, they don't matter anymore.
A
All right, let me put some numbers to the fact that something is not quite right with Frontier. We are speaking on Wednesday morning. Frontier released its earnings this morning. I don't want to spill too much, Brett, but it looks like Barry Biffle never got his double digit margins before he left. Huh.
B
I think we are all very shocked. He'd only promised it every quarter for how long? But yes, look, their earnings did not appear great at first blush. But why don't you tell us more Because I didn't look at it as much as you did this morning.
A
No, they weren't great, but they could have been worse. Brett. Frontier beat analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share in the fourth quarter. And it actually made a profit of about $53 million on 1 billion in reven. Remember a couple of things. First, analysts weren't so bullish on the stock anyways. So beating estimates only takes you so far. And then also Frontier in recent years has been a pretty decent fourth quarter airline. So a year earlier it earned 54 million on similar revenue. So very similar fourth quarter earnings year over year. If we take a look back and we look at 2025 full year earnings, we see that Frontier still has a pretty big hill it must climb last year, it lost $137 million on total revenues of 3.7 billion. A year earlier, it actually had made money for the full year, about $85 million. We're not going to go into great detail here, but a little Kasm RASM excitement for you. KASM Xfuel was up 10% year over year, while RASM was down 1%.
B
Woof.
A
So things probably do need to change, and I suspect that network is one of those places that probably needs more than a minor tweak. So, Brett, you ready to geek out? Let's delve deeper into that. You say that Frontier is going back into basics, Florida, Vegas. I'm just wondering, is it possible to just say this is all related to Spirit and not part of a bigger plan? They're just going in because Spirit's going out?
B
I don't think it's that. I mean, that's probably part of it, but just because Spirit shrunk doesn't mean that everyone has. There's still a ton of capacity there. So to give you some point of reference here for July 26, Florida currently has 10% more domestic departing seats than it had in July 2023, which was before Frontier decided it needed to shift last time. And Orlando is up over 12%. Vegas is down. It's actually off over 6% in July. But Vegas is also seeing a real demand problem. It's sort of a different market. But sure, Spirit is down, but capacity in general is not.
A
All right, so it's not Spirit. Are you saying that Frontier is probably not going to mint money in Florida and Vegas? So answer a question for our listeners who are yelling at their iPhones right now. Why are they doing it if these markets are still saturated?
B
It's hard to know exactly how they're looking at this. Right. They're looking at it and saying, okay, well, that pivot we made didn't work. So what do we do? Well, let's go back to the traditional markets that we talked about. So the issue is that there's still a lot of capacity. It's not just about how much ULCC capacity there is. Certainly that helps with Spirit pulling back. But I look at this and think, well, this is kind of the only thing that has ever worked historically, and so they're going to go and try and run it back, I guess.
A
I do love the airline industry because there are so few fresh ideas. If something doesn't work, you just go back to an idea that worked in. In the past, right?
B
Yeah. Although it's almost like we're going back to an idea that worked for Spirit in the past, not even just for Frontier, with this additional frequency that they're putting in the market. So it's definitely a bold move there.
A
Is there anything unique here? Anything that just isn't like doing what they did last time?
B
Yeah, I mean, maybe to some extent, you know, it's not just about leisure markets. It is about just bigger markets in general. You know, I took a look at Frontiers 13 bases, and then I looked at where the airplanes were flying from those bases this July versus last to see what I could dig up on that.
A
Thirteen bases, you say? I know that our listeners are absolute experts who just know everything about every airline, but let's say that they don't. What are these 13 bases?
B
I fortunately have that right here, so I don't have to pretend I remember them all. So there's Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, Philly, Phoenix, San Juan and Tampa.
A
Some very fine American cities right there. So you were doing this analysis, and you looked at where the aircraft were flying to and from the bases. Right. So Frontier has some flights that don't touch a base. You didn't look at them quite as carefully.
B
Right. You know, for example, they have substantial operations in LA and in New York, which are not bases. But if you look at these months, in July, 93% of Frontiers flights touch a base. So for this analysis, I was fine with that. We can talk a little bit about those other destinations as well. But what I did is I looked at the destinations from those bases and I grouped them by the size of the metropolitan statistical area. Msa.
A
Metropolitan statistical area. We are going deep here, Brett.
B
We are. And don't even get me started on how I agonized over using MSA versus csa. It was a whole thing.
A
God, did we miss you when you were in Mexico. We only had two nerds instead of three. All right, Anyways, what did you find out?
B
Well, I found out that with not every MSA being in a csa, it made it tough to compare.
A
Why do you have to be like this? Just tell us what you found out in the data.
B
Oh, you want to hear about the data? Okay, fine. Well, in July 2025, just over 35% of departures from the bases went to airports in the top 10 MSAs. And this July, that has climbed nearly five points to just shy of 40%.
A
So where did that growth come from?
B
It came from everywhere. So, like, 1.8 points came out of international. 1.3 points came from markets outside the top 50 MSAs. So the much smaller ones, another 1.1 came out of markets between the 26th and 50th, so they just kind of pulled from all the other pieces.
A
Yeah, that sounds about right. Because Frontier has all those gigantic A321neos, right? You've got to fill them. So you need big destinations.
B
Either that or you have to return some of them to AerCap, which is apparently the plan today in the earnings announcement. But yes, they have even the. Even the A320s, seat 180, 186. But they do have very big airplanes that they need to fill, and this is really a big increase in those MSAs. But I should be clear, not every one of the top 10 are treated the same. There are actually even two that are. That are losing.
A
And what were those two MSAs, as you call them?
B
Well, the largest MSA of them all, we have New York. It's actually down more than 20% on departures. Seats are down a little less because it makes sense to use bigger airplanes there. But Both JFK and LaGuardia were hit pretty hard.
A
You don't say. Brett, you remember that interview that I did at a conference in September? It's up on YouTube with that very large airline, a CEO who tends to be extremely confident, who said, there is no way that Frontier is going to make New York work. And it's just math and all that stuff. And then Barry Biffle had his own public comments and he said, nah, I got this. I'm gonna assume that he didn't got this. Is it because, as that big airline CEO said, I'm not gonna use his name because they don't want to put a quarter in. But these airports are very expensive to operate in. Right? And Frontier has very tiny revenue. Is that the issue?
B
Yeah, well, that was going to be my guess. Islip and Newark actually hold up. Okay, so, you know, Newark, maybe that's a bit of an outlier, but it's also really small. I think JFK and LaGuardia are just really tough places. There are a lot of airlines flying to a lot of places, and the costs are incredibly high. So now Frontier is going to focus that flying on Florida and Atlanta mostly. It's really about the core markets where they think they can find a way to make a buck.
A
I guess it's a shame we never got the opportunity to fly JFK to LAX while that flight was around.
B
I would absolutely fly la JFK on Frontier with you just to see you do this.
A
The seats have no padding. Brett, they're so uncomfortable.
B
We can still do, like, Philly.
A
I flew it a year ago to Phoenix, actually, to go see you. I barely made it from Burbank to Phoenix. My back.
B
Which is why I want to see you do a transcon.
A
All right, you said that there was another MSA where capacity was down. What's the other one?
B
Yes, the other MSA that was down. That is Chicago. So you would think on the surface, Chicago, this is not a surprise, right? United American going crazy, throwing capacity in the market. Why would anyone want to be ramping up there? But that's actually not the issue here. Frontier is just kind of gutting Midway. It's actually slightly growing o' Hare, mostly with bigger gauge. So apparently it likes that fight for.
A
Some reason, at least for now. What about the eight MSAs that are up? What kind of big trends do you see there?
B
Well, the number one story is Atlanta. Atlanta and also Atlanta.
A
Brett, just a reminder, you don't have to say these things three times, even if you want to emphasize them. We let you get away with it. Last week in your intro to the Andrew Waterson Tom Doxy interview, I think you yelled, we have two to two executives from Southwest. We get it, but just say it once, please.
B
That's not what I learned in my monster truck advertising days. Sunday. Sunday. Sunday. No. All right, fine. So Atlanta is a big story. I will say it once, but it is easily the number one market for Frontier now. In July, Atlanta will have nearly 17% more departures from Frontier than the number two market, which is Denver. And Frontier bigger airplanes. So it actually has 22% more seats than Denver.
A
Yeah, we've been pretty hard on Frontier so far in this show. This one makes quite a bit of sense for me. We know that Southwest wasn't able to make a go of it as the number two two Delta in Atlanta. But Frontier is a different airline with. With lower costs. And I don't think it's such a bad idea for them to bulk up there, especially now that Southwest has shrunk there and moved its big Southeastern operation to Nashville.
B
Yeah, it certainly left a vacuum when Southwest left. If someone wanted to try and go take on Delta there. The thing that I just keep asking myself, and it's hard because, you know, in D data, we don't really. I mean, we see the fair. We don't necessarily know what ancillaries are looking like. But I always wonder, is this actually good for Frontier, or is it just less bad than anything else that they have going for them? But either way, Frontier loves this place and it is just running away with the airline's largest station by far now.
A
Yeah, well, Delta can't control 100% share there. Right. So how bad could it be? You mentioned that Denver is number two. I'm going to guess here maybe Orlando's number three and Vegas is number four.
B
Yeah, no surprises there. But I do think it's important to actually put a little context around this. Denver is actually down on flights versus last year. It's just always been big for the airline and that's one of the only big markets that is down on flights. But a lot of that seems to come out of either pulling out of cities like Boise and Spokane or redirecting flights to other cities to go using like Las Vegas or Atlanta instead of Denver as the point to connect it into the network.
A
Can you explain that a little bit more?
B
Yeah, sure. So look at Burbank in your backyard or Reno. Those markets had Denver service last year. This year they don't. They'll only have Las Vegas service or Milwaukee and Puerto Vallarta to very similar markets. I think we can all agree those both had flights from Denver last year. This year they'll have Atlanta only. So they're just kind of shifting how they do connectivity here.
A
So Denver was basically a key point to keep these cities connected into the network, but now other cities are doing that or some cities are just gone completely.
B
Yes, and that's not a small list. Actually. There are some cities that they already removed before, like Painfield and Palm Springs they had pulled out, but now you can add. Let's see, Charles, Charleston, Green Bay, Harrisburg, Missoula, Syracuse, Tucson, couple of international spots. They're really pulling a lot of these out.
A
It sounds like somebody over there doesn't like small to medium sized cities.
B
Yeah, I mean, it fits with the trend of what we've been talking about the whole day. Right. So they are pulling quite a few off the route map there.
A
All right. Any other outliers out there?
B
Yes. So Frontier loves Atlanta. It also seems to have a deep appreciation of Texas these days as well. I suppose somebody has to, if you say so. But DFW is now the fifth largest market. Seats are up more than 70% year over year. They'll have nearly 40 departures a day from there. And then IAH there in Houston, that one's up nearly 90%, about 21 daily departures. So those are kind of the big winners of the bases up at the top.
A
This is all wonderful stuff, Brett, but the most important thing to Me is flights in my backyard. Now, of course, I wouldn't fly Frontier here, and it's not because the seats are uncomfortable, which they are. Do you know why I won't fly Frontier from lax?
B
Because you have to go to lax?
A
No, I don't mind lax. When I get to lax, unless I'm flying Air France, I'm not going to the midfield terminal.
B
Oh, yeah, no, it's not a great experience. And this is actually the biggest surprise to me. I think LAX is up year over year. Flights are up about a third to right around 19 daily. Seats per flight dipped a bit. So that confuses me even more because LAX is an expensive airport and it keeps getting more and more expensive with, as you say, a pretty poor passenger experience for Frontier, since they have to take the bus out to the remote midfield concourse. If they were pulling back in New York, I would have thought maybe they'd do the same in la. But somehow they did not do that. They seem to see something here.
A
All right, so if I were to fly Frontier here, where would I go?
B
Well, they didn't really change much in terms of the routes that are served. They did add San Jose back to the mix. So there you go. But most of the growth here is frequency. They're making sure that every market flies at least once a day. Portland is the only exception. That's at five weekly. But this is a trend that's taking hold system wide here, actually. So I have to put this caveat up front. July is hardly going to be considered final for Frontier. They like to make changes to their schedule right up until the end. So who knows what else may change? But let's just take it for what it is. The percent of routes that have service once daily or more rises from about 60% last July in 2025 to about 88% in July 2026. So that is a huge shift.
A
Brett, you want to do a little inside baseball here?
B
Okay. You know, I'm always game for it.
A
So what do you think if we were to call up one of our listeners, I presume, Daniel Schurz, who now runs network at JetBlue and used to run network at Frontier, and we would say, hey, Daniel, did you expect all of this would happen? Because after you left, they completely changed the network and now they seem to be going back to what you used to do. What do you think Daniel would tell us?
B
No comment.
A
I don't know that he would say no comment. I think he might say, I told you so.
B
Well, he would if you're going to blast it out on the podcast here. I don't think he's going to say that there's no reason to take a victory lap on this. It's just, if you look at it, it's just, you know, it is definitely kind of going back to where it was. But really, like, think about Frontier. They were always the sub daily king. They had a ton of markets that were 2, 3, 4 weekly for the really big ones. And so this really isn' even going back to a previous Frontier strategy. This is going back to a previous Spirit strategy. Spirit, they were always back in the day. It was, we serve bigger cities, fly once a day at least, and that seems to be where they're going here.
A
Well, it worked for Spirit, but that was, of course, a different era. I sense that Jimmy Dempsey, the new CEO, is going to make some changes over at Frontier. And, you know, we could also see changes in bigger stuff like the Basin operation strategy as well. If he's going to be undoing some of what Barry Biffle did, I would imagine he's looking at absolutely everything. It doesn't mean that everything's going to change, but you got to assume that everything's on the table.
B
I would think so. But there's also a lot of shifting under the surface here that we can't see. It may not be that big of a change structurally just how they're putting this new schedule into effect, but it's probably going to take multiple schedule extensions for them to actually get to a place where they want to be. You know, what they've done already certainly shows a direction, but we also don't know if they'll completely chop the summer schedule when it gets closer. I think they're just kind of showing their hand a little bit here and saying this is where we, we want to go.
A
I don't know Dempsey that well, although he was once quite abrasive to me on an interview when he was a CFO when I didn't understand something because numbers are challenging. But speaking of numbers, Brett, do you think that Dempsey is going to promise future double digit margins and then maybe. Or you think he won't do that?
B
I would hope he would be smart enough to not make that mistake. Yeah.
A
You know, it seems like Frontier is covering its bases because one thing that I learned from earnings this morning. Did you see its guidance for all of 2026?
B
I did. It's quite a range there.
A
Yeah. It kind of summarizes as we might make some money, we might not. Who's to say so EPS it could be down 40 cents a share, or it could be up 50 cents a share. Who knows?
B
Yeah, I think. Look, they made it pretty clear Q1 will lose a bunch of money. So what they're saying is these changes they're putting into place now will either power them to glory or completely fail. Or somewhere in between.
A
You've been listening to the Air Show. If you have suggestions or questions for us, or if you're interested in sponsoring the podcast, go to our website, theairshowpodcast.com to get in touch.
B
Leo Duran produced and edited this episode. Our theme music is by Joshua Mosher. Thanks for listening and we'll be back soon.
Episode: Frontier Goes Back to Big and Traditional
Host: Shayr Media
Date: February 12, 2026
Panelists: Jon Ostrower, Brian Sumers, Brett Snyder
This episode dives into the latest developments at Frontier Airlines, focusing on its network strategy shift under new CEO Jimmy Dempsey. The panel unpacks the airline’s dramatic return to traditional leisure markets (notably Florida and Las Vegas), analyzes recent earnings, and explores how Frontier is recalibrating after abandoning the expansionist ambitions of its previous leadership. The conversation is rich with data, seasoned with inside jokes, and marked by the panel’s unfiltered takes on what’s working—and what isn’t—in the ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) world.
Decreased Service:
Increased Service:
Shift in Connectivity:
Formerly served smaller markets via Denver—now those connections are routed through larger cities like Atlanta or Las Vegas, and several small/medium cities are being dropped altogether (16:31–17:05).
Notable Quote:
"Frontier loves Atlanta. It also seems to have a deep appreciation of Texas these days as well... DFW is now the fifth largest market. Seats are up more than 70% year over year." — Brett Snyder (17:38)
Frontier is making a decisive pivot back to its roots, doubling down on big leisure markets and boosting frequency, borrowing heavily from Spirit’s previous playbook. The Biffle era’s big ambitions for secondary cities have been shelved in favor of what the panel calls the “only thing that’s ever worked” for ULCCs. Yet the airline’s financial prospects remain uncertain, with 2026 guidance leaving plenty of room for interpretation. Under new leadership, all options seem to be on the table.
Listeners looking for the reasons behind Frontier’s recent moves—and a healthy dose of airline industry wit—will find this episode essential.