Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Air Show
Episode: Sun Country's CEO on the Future of Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers
Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Shayr Media
Guests: Brett Snyder (Cranky Flyer), Brian Sumers (Airline Observer), Jude Bricker (CEO, Sun Country)
Description: A candid, wide-ranging interview with Jude Bricker, exploring the challenges and future of ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCCs) in the US, Sun Country’s unique business model, thoughts on consolidation in the industry, and competitive dynamics with larger network carriers.

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the evolving landscape for ULCCs in the United States as the hosts, Brett Snyder and Brian Sumers, sit down with Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker at the Apex Airline Expo. The conversation ranges from Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy and potential M&A scenarios, to deeper reflections on the fundamental challenges facing ULCCs in the US and Sun Country’s distinctive approach to growth, fleet, scheduling, and branding. Bricker is forthright and insightful, providing both operational details and bigger industry perspectives.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Spirit Airlines, Bankruptcy, and M&A Prospects

• Unlikely Acquisition:
  • Bricker quickly dismisses the prospect of Sun Country merging with Spirit, citing the latter’s negative EBITDA and unsustainable debt load.

    "They're EBITDA negative. We have $7 billion of debt over there... We're a $250 million a year EBITDA business. We can't absorb anywhere near that balance sheet." (Jude Bricker, 01:11)

  • Sun Country wouldn’t consider Spirit unless there was a "material change" during the bankruptcy process.
• Preferred Outcomes:
  • Bricker’s baseline assumption is a Spirit-Frontier tie-up is most logical, offering the most synergy.

    "My base case assumption is that the most synergies exist between them and Frontier and that that's a logical outcome." (C, 01:59)

  • Detroit is a possible growth market, but Bricker asserts Sun Country could enter it without acquiring Spirit.
• Industry Complexity:
  • The uncertain fate of Spirit’s assets, grounded planes, and unclear maintenance warranties make predictions difficult.

    "I don't think any of us really know what's going to happen through this restructuring." (C, 02:25)

2. The ULCC Model's Unique US Challenges

• Structural Hurdles in the US:
  • US network carriers have outcompeted ULCCs by leveraging massive loyalty programs (driven by lucrative credit card deals), allowing them to "defend" against discount airlines with tools like basic economy.

    "The network carriers have been able to leverage their scale and are producing $7 billion of annual benefits... [Sun Country is] at $20 million." (C, 05:28-05:29)

• Cost Pressures:
  • Post-COVID, ULCCs have seen disproportionately large cost increases.
• Competitive Tactics:
  • Flexibility and network rationalization by majors mean ULCCs can't rely on simply offering the lowest fare; the competitive landscape is fundamentally different in the US than abroad.

3. Sun Country's Variable Model: Charters, Cargo, & Seasonality

• Operational Flexibility:
  • Sun Country differentiates itself by "tripling capacity from peak to trough," using flexible scheduling based on season and demand.

    "Our opportunity is to triple capacity from peak to trough… That level of variability is our differentiating factor." (C, 06:27)

• Role of Charters and Cargo:
  • Charter and cargo flights together account for roughly 40% of Sun Country’s flying hours—stabilizing the schedule and revenue.

    "So it's charter and cargo that make up about 40% in aggregate… of our total block hour production." (C, 08:36)

  • The cargo business is not variable but provides a stable base load, while charters allow more dynamic allocation.
• Low Fixed Costs:
  • The key is maintaining a fleet with low fixed costs to enable such variability.
• Why This Model Is Tough to Replicate:
  • Other ULCCs, like Spirit, would find it hard to copy due to their cost structure (especially expensive leases).

    "It's very difficult to do that when you're paying four or five hundred thousand dollars a month on a lease rate on a new airplane before maintenance." (C, 09:47)

4. Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Decisions

• Recent Fleet Moves:
  • Innovative acquisitions: Sun Country bought 737-900s leased to Oman Air, collected lease payments, and is now integrating them—a rare but advantageous move.

    "We did a lot of transactions coming out of COVID... This deal was, it was a great deal." (C, 18:38, 19:31)

• Aircraft Sizing (‘Gauge’):
  • Sun Country targets large aircraft for expensive airport markets, maximizing seats per flight.
• View on New Aircraft:
  • Avelo’s move to E2s (smaller jets) isn’t currently appealing for Sun Country, but there's continued analysis for future flexibility.
  • Difficult procurement environment: OEMs (Boeing, Airbus) prioritize major carriers; It’s tough for a smaller ULCC to buy new planes now.

    "They tell you that they're sold out through the end of the decade..." (C, 15:21)

• Leasing and Utilization Economics:
  • New aircraft only make sense at high utilization; older jets are best for low-utilization, off-peak flying.

5. Branding and Market Expansion

• Brand Recognition Challenge:
  • Sun Country is strong in Minneapolis, but struggles for awareness elsewhere; expansion would require aggressive pricing and marketing.

    "Outside of Minneapolis... nobody has any idea what, what, what Sun Country is." (B, 22:00)

  • In Minneapolis, Sun Country enjoys a $25 premium versus ULCC competitors.
• Third-Party Distribution & Partnerships:
  • Heavy reliance on OTAs and GDS in new markets; partnerships (like with Apple) help fill planes but aren’t enough for large-scale expansion without rationalization in the ULCC sector.

6. Industry Consolidation & Long-term Prospects

• Pro-Consolidation Stance:
  • Bricker predicts and favors continued consolidation in the ULCC sector but sees Sun Country more as a "spectator" due to its strong, unique margins.

    "I'm pro consolidation, but... it's clearly an administrative backdrop that is constructive." (C, 32:55)

• Regulatory Perspective:
  • Suggests focus should be on airport access, ATC efficiency, and transparency (esp. in pricing/taxes) to benefit ULCCs.
• Limited Growth Days:
  • Only 150 days per year realistically justify added flying; aircraft prices are up 50-60% since COVID, constraining nimble market expansion.

7. On Loyalty Programs & Credit Cards

• Critique of US Loyalty Economics:
  • Bricker is critical of the massive credit card–driven revenue for majors, arguing it raises costs for everyone else and hurts small businesses.

    "You're taking small business margin and reallocating it to some of the wealthiest Americans in the country. I don't think it's an appropriate scheme." (C, 29:47)

  • Recommends capping or opening up interchange, suggesting that lower merchant fees would be better for the country, even if airfare ticks up.

8. The “Angry Glenn” Theory and Delta Competition

• Minneapolis Hub Dynamics:
  • Sun Country can always find a place in Minneapolis due to scheduling flexibility, even as Delta dominates.

    "Our share... In Minneapolis has been very stable. I think we're both doing just fine there." (C, 07:56)

• On Delta’s Competitive Response:
  • Delta’s aggressive response is not seen as a specific threat, provided Sun Country leverages its differentiators.

9. Vacation Packages & Ancillaries

• European Comparison:
  • Sun Country admires Jet2’s package model but doesn’t see wide adoption or margins as plausible in the US market due to different consumer behavior and economics.

    "Holidays in Europe are just more widely accepted. I just don't think that it's the same opportunity in the U.S." (C, 28:03)

  • Vacation packages remain a small, non-core part of the business.

10. Premiumization Trend and Product Differentiation

• Premium Demand Limited:
  • Sun Country offers premium economy, but sees only modest demand; does not plan to add first class.

    "We've seen some acceleration in premium, but it's minor. I don't think they're going to get a lot of yield premium..." (C, 38:27)

• Product Philosophy:
  • Focus remains on providing basic, low-fare, no-frills service—especially for median-income families.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Spirit Acquisition:

  "We can't absorb anywhere near that balance sheet. So in their current form... there's really no opportunity there for us."
  (Jude Bricker, 01:11)

• On US ULCC Difficulties:

  "The network carriers have been able to leverage their scale and are producing $7 billion of annual benefits… We’re at $20 million."
  (C, 05:28-05:29)

• On Competing with Delta:

  "That level of variability is our differentiating factor. I don't think anybody else can do that and keep unit costs where we do."
  (C, 06:27)

• On the Premiumization Trend:

  "The people that most care about product are the ones that aren't paying for their tickets. So business customers..."
  (C, 37:53)

• On Loyalty Program Economics:

  "You're taking small business margin and reallocating it to some of the wealthiest Americans in the country. I don't think it's an appropriate scheme."
  (C, 29:47)

• On ULCC Consolidation:

  "I'm pro consolidation, but... it's clearly an administrative backdrop that is constructive."
  (C, 32:55)

Important Timestamps

• M&A, Spirit/Frontier Dynamics: 00:30–03:43
• ULCC Model Challenges in US: 04:25–06:27
• Minneapolis Competition with Delta: 06:27–07:56
• Charter/Cargo and Variable Scheduling Model: 08:08–09:47
• Fleet, Aircraft Choices, and New Orders: 12:04–15:45
• Branding and Market Entry Outside Minneapolis: 21:55–23:32
• Industry Consolidation/Regulatory Policy: 32:10–34:45
• Loyalty Programs & Credit Card Fees: 29:41–31:36
• Premium Product & Yield Trends: 36:43–39:02

Tone & Final Reflections

The conversation is candid, analytical, sometimes humorous, and largely devoid of PR spin. Bricker is especially forthright about the structural limitations facing ULCCs in the US, Sun Country’s unique positioning, and the hard trade-offs between growth and cost discipline. The hosts inject recurring humor—including running jokes about Spirit mergers and the “Angry Glenn” theory—while driving home sharp, pointed questions about dynamics that only industry insiders fully appreciate.

The episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in airline business models, M&A strategy, and the future of low-cost flying in the United States.