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- [00:02]
A
I'm Brett Snyder, author of Cranky Flyer.
- [00:04]
B
And I'm John Ostrower, editor in chief of the Air Current. You're listening to the Air show, the podcast where we talk about what goes on in the business of the sky. I have returned from Dubai, but Brian is now on the other side of the world. Brett, thank you for being the only constant on this show. How was your Thanksgiving?
- [00:23]
A
It was good. Good. Though I didn't actually have to fly to my destination. That was nice. How about you?
- [00:29]
B
I was perfectly happy to be sitting still with my family in Seattle. I do love my time on airplanes, as you all know, but I was clocking in at about 32 hours of flying the week prior, including a fog induced delay in Dubai that led to a 24 hour extension of my trip. It's quite the adventure.
- [00:48]
A
Yeah, that sounds terrible. But I do want to talk more about Dubai, especially what you saw there at the Air Show. But first, you did miss our Delta. Delta extravaganza while you were gone.
- [01:01]
B
Widget fest.
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A
Widget fest, sure. We ended up getting a lot of mail after that one. Thank you everybody. I mean it. I love it. More mail. This is good. But I do want to go through some of these because while many people just agreed with us, there were others who thought we missed some things. So first we got a lengthy note from a listener, but I'll just share a small piece here. He says, one huge area I think y' all missed. You have to say y' all because Atlanta. Right. One huge area I think you all missed in the analysis though is just how poorly Delta's technology is in comparison to United. And there's really no plan, vision to catch up. As you covered, Ed and Glenn are of a different generation and really don't understand what it takes to build the digital experiences that people expect today. They're so focused on trying to make certain elements pretty for marketing, but the underlying data is disjointed at best. It's why they can't offer any meaningful notifications about flights or operations too.
- [02:00]
B
You know, this is a great point and I think, you know, the, the soft vulnerable underbelly of the entire industry is, is all held together with, you know, spit, baling wire and if you're lucky, hopes and dreams and hopefully a, a well funded budget line item. But man, oh man, you know, this whole thing is pretty rickety. And it's not just Delta.
- [02:23]
A
I believe you forgot rainbows and unicorns. But yes, it is absolutely an issue. But interesting that this listener difference between United and Delta, which I think from a customer facing standpoint, we do see United's app, for example, being so good, but maybe, you know, on the other side, not as customer facing. To hear some of this, we also had. Here's another one we got. While a public company obviously needs a finance guy who can interface with Wall Street, I don't think that's the role of the CEO. We have CFOs for a reason. The CEO sets vision and culture. If you think of your airline CEO hall of fame, I bet you don't think finance, legal guys like Bob Jordan, Barry Biffle, Jeff Smisek. You think of visionary cultural leaders. Herb Gordon, Oscar, maybe Scott. The airline CEOs who need no last name. Now, Brian isn't here to defend himself since that was his, his part of the discussion there. But, but there's a valid point here, I think.
- [03:24]
B
I'm not an airline CEO, but I do run a business of my own. And the way I see it is that vision and culture are really my first, second, third and fourth priorities. And then fifth, I would say, just as important is hiring the team that reflects the culture and brings that vision to life. Each of those leaders you mentioned had quality as the input for how they think about their airlines. Cost took care of itself as an output. Businesses get destroyed when the equation gets reversed. And that, I think, is one of the keys to being a successful CEO in this business.
- [04:00]
A
All right, you heard it here first. Lessons from an entrepreneur. But now let's move on to the air show. Not this podcast, the actual air show that you went to. Yes.
- [04:13]
B
Do you think if, if we went to an air show and recorded the air show, the universe would fold in on itself?
- [04:19]
A
What if we were watching a movie about an air show while we were at the air show recording the air show?
- [04:24]
B
I would be watching a movie while recording the podcast.
- [04:27]
A
I don't know. I'm just trying to make our heads explode. This seems good to me.
- [04:31]
B
Put on Airport 77 in the background or something.
- [04:33]
A
No, that's distracted. That's solid. But moving right along, there was a lot going on at the the show in the uae. I would say of geopolitical significance. We had some new evtol and defense technology. That's not my jam though. That's your thing. But for the purposes of this discussion, let's focus in on the commercial stuff. The biggest news was Emirates and Fly Dubai, right?
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B
Absolutely. Look, Dubai, unsurprisingly, was about the ascent of Dubai as really the center of the global aviation world.
- [05:08]
A
This is shocking.
- [05:09]
B
I Threw a party and it's about me. You know, it's around 2033. Emirates is going to make a single all in jump from Dubai International Airport downtown to Dubai World Central Airport, which is further southwest of the city. That's where the air show is being held. Used to be at the other major airport, DXB as we all know it by its airport code. But DWC is on the ascent and it was supposed to actually open more fully earlier in the decade, but you.
- [05:40]
A
Know, Covid and I was gonna say I feel like we've heard this, this refrain before, but okay, I'll believe you this time.
- [05:46]
B
This has been in the works since like my first days as a journalist in my early 20s. And to see it actually start to like come up is really amazing. There's like an entire expansion plan that' detailed here, not just for the airport, but really for the city itself to allow it to expand around DWC. They're looking at a capacity of 250 million passengers a year for this airport. For reference, that's two and a half times Atlanta today, which has about 108 million passengers coming through last year. This air show and Dubai's ambitions have been unidirectional. You can absolutely feel the growth and the energy there. I mean, it's really incredible. I would absolutely contrast this to the Farnborough Air show, which keeps feeling like it's been in a slow decline over the last successive years. By the way, if you ever want to wreck an afternoon's worth of productivity, go to YouTube, type in Farnborough and any even year during the 20th century and you will not be disappointed. Okay, Avgeek digression over. But to your question, Emirates, in making the largest splash of the show, ordered 65 more 777 nine aircraft from Boeing. That brings its total to 270 now as they wait for their first. That's now expected in the second quarter of 2027, about seven years after they first were anticipating the airplane. Another quick aside a few days before the show, sir. Tim Clark, recent guest on the Air show and the airline president, said Boeing had actually no idea when the first airplane would be delivered. So quick turnaround in a few, in a few days.
- [07:29]
A
Okay, but that's not actually a quick aside because this is probably yet another episode. But Boeing has been relatively unable to get anything certified. We're still waiting on the Max 7, the Max 10, the Triple 7X, all of these. Do you think that this is a realistic second quarter 2027 or we just making wild guesses at this point, because nobody knows what's happening.
- [07:55]
B
I think it's more realistic than all of the other goals that has preceded it.
- [08:01]
A
Okay, well, that doesn't really say anything.
- [08:04]
B
Well, exactly right. I mean, it's. I think what we're seeing here is also Boeing at the show confirmed that they had received phase three type inspection authorization. And for those of you who are not intense watchers of FAA phase three, I'm so in the weeds on FA certific certification. I realized that not everyone has this appreciation for this. So. So the, the FAA certification process as it currently exists is broken into different phases for, for different areas of readiness for the aircraft to be certified, flown with certification credit for the faa. Well, getting phase three, which is one of, if not the biggest phase of the whole flight test process, got approved to start just before the show. We actually, the air current broke that story, and Boeing actually confirmed it in Dubai. But it's, it is a really big indicator of the momentum that Boeing is building. Look, I think that, that they're finally getting back on their feet with this, this project. There's still a long way to go, especially when you think about a production ramp up and all the change in corporation required on the airplanes they've already built. But to the key point here. Yeah, I think 2027, that second quarter is a far more reasonable goal than any that have preceded it.
- [09:17]
A
All right, let me just put a reminder in my calendar to talk to you in the second quarter, see how that prediction worked out. But how many phases are there? Just a quick question. Is it like 370 phases? And we're on phase three.
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B
There are five phases.
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A
Okay.
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B
Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Deuteronomy.
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A
Okay, this is ridiculous. Let's get back to Emirates.
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B
Okay, so aside from the fact that this was a gigantic new order that had initially been reported to go Airbus's way for the A350 1000. And this is actually one of the really fun parts of the show where Emirates, quote, unquote, announced that as part of the deal, they were taking advantage of Boeing's Holiday Special for one free derivative feasibility study. When you spend $38 billion or more, obviously that's tongue in cheek, but what I'm getting at is that Emirates bought itself the leverage to get Boeing to seriously study another stretch of the 777X to grow the seating capacity of the Super Twin to eventually replace the A380s, which will be exiting around 2040.
- [10:19]
A
Okay, so this is the December to Remember special here.
- [10:21]
B
Yeah, exactly right.
- [10:23]
A
Do they put a big bow on the feasibility study.
- [10:25]
B
It's a $38 billion bow.
- [10:26]
A
You know, they could have just done the 748, but that's. Never mind.
- [10:32]
This is not new though, right? Didn't. Hasn't Boeing looked at. What is this, a dash 11? I don't know. Haven't they looked at this before?
- [10:40]
B
Still dash 10. We're still. Yeah, we're not. We're not jumping yet. Boeing. Amid all of this, the leaders of the show were extremely quick to say that their focus was finishing on the nine. They didn't want to give any kind of indication whatsoever that their focus was anywhere else but on wrapping up that program. However, this does bring back something that they actually looked at a while ago. So Boeing and Airbus studied the 77710 and A350 2000 back in 2016 as part of a campaign for Singapore Airlines that Boeing actually ended up winning. That didn't include any stretch of the 777X, but it did give Boeing a good sense of what the airplane might eventually look like. So this has been on the, on the drawing board for a while.
- [11:24]
A
Why are we naming airplanes in the dumbest way possible now? Like, we're going from an A350, 9001000 to 2000. We can't go like 1100. We're starting at eights and sorry, this is just my own rant. It's driving me up the wall. Why can't we just make this easier on everyone? But that's, that's fine. Whatever. Point is, they're looking at a bigger airplane. Once again, what would it be? How much bigger? What is this?
- [11:54]
B
Okay, so Sir Tim wants an airplane that has about 50 to 60 seats more. So probably, let's call it five or six rows of economy seating at 10 abreast to push this well above 400 seats in Emirates already four class configuration. But I think this actually gets to something really interesting inside the duopoly. And this is new. Boeing, for the first time, maybe this century, can achieve a higher capacity and more performant product over Airbus for less design and engineering change than Airbus has to make to achieve the same on the A350. So Airbus can also stretch the A350 1000 to become a 2000. They can make it longer, add more seats. But here's the thing, it's a smaller wing and the engine is already tailored at £97,000 of thrust. The Trent XWB from Rolls Royce. For that size airplane, there isn't a whole lot of margin left in that engine for it to grow. And it would require probably a much bigger push on propulsion and the aircraft capabilities to get where they want to go. For Emirates.
- [13:04]
A
Now, that is interesting because the 350 is bigger than Boeing's current best technology, the 787. But this is because the 777X has been in development for so long at this point. That'll be the new standard, and it's easier to extend that than it will be for Airbus to do the A350.
- [13:24]
B
Well, so here's. Here's what it gets to. So the 777X is a much bigger airplane already. You know, we started as the A model 200 back in the. In the mid-90s and grew to the 300 and then the 300er, and now the. The triple seven nine. So with that, as Boeing has gone into the triple 7X, they added new GE engines, and so they have a lot more margin on those GE9X engines. They're already rated at 105, 000 pounds of thrust for Triple 7X, and GE has run them all the way to 134, 000 pounds of thrust. So there's room to grow there. Granted, more thrust means more stress on the core, means higher fuel burn. There's a lot. It's not free. There are big considerations here around the aircraft, like particularly around Runway performance. And how much fuel could you actually carry for a full passenger load. That's all. To say nothing of a tail strike risk of an airplane that long. And it would be really, really long at 251ft, 9 inches. That's the current triple seven nine. It's already the longest passenger airplane ever developed. By the way, easy Math here. Adding six rows at 31 inches of pitch means at least 186 inches, or about 15 and a half feet of additional length in the fuselage. To grow this airplane, it would be enormous. It would be longer than an A380 is wide.
- [14:55]
A
I mean, which is.
- [14:56]
B
It's a big. It's a big airplane.
- [14:58]
A
If it's longer than the A380, stacking the upper deck behind the lower deck, then we're talking.
- [15:03]
B
Yeah, right. Hunchback of Mukil Tio style. Speaking of esoteric airplane development history.
- [15:10]
A
Yeah, I mean, that's a whole issue. The length is an issue with gates, ramp space. You know, how you can accommodate all that, I'm sure.
- [15:19]
And probably other modifications too need to be done.
- [15:22]
B
Oh, yeah, you're gonna have to mess with the doors to Increase the evacuation capacity. But look there, there are already design and certification templates for those. I mean think Cebu Pacific, right? They've put, you know, 159, I think on a, a 330, 900. So a 330 Neo. And a lot of that was done through, you know, additional lighting, double wide escape slides where you position flight attendants, stuff like that. But at the end of the day, I think that a 777 10, which I, I would actually put on the more likely side given Emirates desire to have this airplane, all indications point to a high density people mover rather than something with equally long range as the smaller members of the family. We're getting from like Dubai to North America, for example. This is like super high density moving back and forth between Dubai and London where again we may see a third Runway eventually. But look, this is about moving a lot of people, potentially not as far. And by the way, this airplane also has to work really well in 120 degree weather. The requirements, this thing are an absolute beast.
- [16:27]
A
I mean, I think we can all agree that anytime you develop an airplane just for Emirates, it always works perfectly. And no one ever regrets doing that, right? Maybe others will be more interested in this when the time comes. I think we have some time. Let's take a break. When we come back, I want to talk about the other big airline in Dubai. So let's do that in a moment.
- [16:48]
B
You know that moment when you walk past business class and think next time?
- [16:52]
C
No, I don't because I never miss an opportunity to sit up front.
- [16:56]
A
Okay, but let's pretend it's hard.
- [16:58]
C
But I get it. If I walk past those big seats, I would immediately regret it.
- [17:03]
B
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- [17:12]
A
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- [17:16]
B
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- [17:26]
A
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- [17:36]
B
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- [17:40]
C
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- [18:09]
A
John, what about Fly Dubai? They. Let's see, was it 150A321neos? That's actually a huge deal I think because they were Boeing only before. Right. Was this a surprise to you that they went for that?
- [18:25]
B
So flydubai has been talking to Airbus for a long time predating its launch as even an airline.
- [18:32]
A
Right.
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B
I spoke with Gaith El Gaith, the airline's longtime CEO who told me that their first order for 5737 1800s back at the 2008 Farnborough Air show was, you know, born from a competition where Boeing kind of came in late to the deal and actually was able to come up with 50 earlier delivery slots than had ever been thought of. Primarily because of what we quickly came to realize was the global financial Crisis back in 2010. Early in the airline's life, I spent several days with the carrier in Dubai in Beirut as they introduced seatback ife for the first time. And what was then the new Boeing sky interior for the 737. They were clearly on on a trajectory for extreme growth to hit smaller points within about seven hours of Dubai. That allowed again same model but definitely different market niche than long range, high capacity. While all wide body Emirates and look, they've still got a ton of 737 on order and at the show they signed an MOU with Boeing for 75 more and they still have 115 coming. This a 321 Neo deal which actually doesn't start delivering until 2031. That's how long you have to wait for new airplanes. Now this deal is really about more range. Their CEO told me, really pushing the fleet from 7 hour single aisle flying on the max up to 7 hours to moving to really a 9 hour segment with 15 seats more.
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A
They have so many aircraft, a dual split fleet here doesn't seem like an issue for me. I just didn't know if this was an earth shaking surprise to see them actually make that move. But this is a fascinating airline for those who may not pay as close attention to them as they do to Emirates. It did start life as an lcc, right? It has changed a lot. It is not that anymore.
- [20:31]
B
Yeah, you know, they've changed tremendously. They have a formal business class lie flat seats now on their 737 Max aircraft. They've got 3787 9s coming soon as well. So while you know, fly Dubai and Emirates are two separate brands. They are increasing their overall integration. And, you know, look, look, we saw some form of this. You know, Singapore Airlines and Silk Air used to be two separate carriers, and now Singapore Airlines flies 737 Max aircraft. And. And that was part of pulling those two carriers together during the pandemic to a single brand. Well, here we are. I wonder whether or not we're going to see something similar where Flydubai ends up either sunsetting and actually just becoming Emirates itself. But I think that's actually really one to watch.
- [21:19]
A
Cathay Pacific and Dragonair as well. That's another one. But, yes, maybe it'll be interesting to see if that happens. So, okay, so those are the. The two big pieces of news from the two big Dubai carriers. But what was your biggest takeaway from the air show here as we start to wrap up?
- [21:35]
B
Okay, so I'm definitely doing this in reverse order of importance. We talked about Emirates, talked with Fly Dubai. Both incredibly important. But the most profound moment of the show came for me on the first day. There was. I was actually walking the static display with a longtime colleague who I'll just, let's just say, is employed by an aircraft manufacturer of global repute. We were standing actually in front of the China Southern C919, which was on display there. It was the first time COMAC came to the Middle east with the aircraft. And the second international air show attended by the Chinese commercial aircraft manufacturer. This has really been a process of the company slowly introducing itself on the global stage. Okay, I won't share which manufacturer this person worked for, but they know airplanes and airplane factories extremely well. They remarked to me as we were standing in front of the 919, and I'm paraphrasing here, the build quality of that airplane is as good or better than anything that comes out of our factories.
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A
Whoa. All right, now, assuming this wasn't boom, that seems like an important statement. So that's pretty bold, though, to say that it's. They really think they're ready for prime time here.
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B
I had a point of comparison here. So the first production C919 that entered service in mid 2023 was on display at the Singapore Air show in 2024. So I really feel like I had a chance to compare the aircraft side by side in both the photos. And having seen both up close, the China Eastern airplane I saw in Singapore looked great, really solid. The China Southern airplane was even better. Rivets, seals, holes, seams, joints, they were just spectacular. The airplane next to it, an Air J21, which Comac is now calling the C909. This one was configured as a business jet. Didn't look so hot. It was a little rough. But that's the generational shift taking place here. Let's just say the quiet part out loud. The Chinese aerospace industry can now build a large commercial airplane with the same levels of quality as Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, atr, Bombardier, Dassault, Cessna and Gulfstream. Western perceptions of Chinese quality and aerospace products are an anachronism. China, as an industrial monolith, has figured out how to do high rate, high quality production with consumer electronics and electric cars. By the way, those are inherently linked because of the crossover skills for both. Side note, if you're looking for some really fascinating winter vacation reading, Apple in china by Patrick McGee should be at the top of your list. There are huge questions around comac's ability to do this at high production rates. If they want to be anywhere near Boeing and Airbus, they're gonna have to figure that out. But I'm confident that they now firmly know what they're doing. At the end of the day, they're gonna need homegrown propulsion and avionics. But my biggest takeaway for the show, even while they were not making any big announcements, Chinese aerospace is ascendant on this very, very important metric.
- [24:23]
A
Well, that is really interesting. It sounds to me like maybe the hardest part is actually just going to be getting certification from FAA and easa. Like these are political hurdles as opposed to anything else.
- [24:37]
B
Oh, absolutely. And I think that one thing to watch for is how this airplane starts to operate outside of China's borders. And it's probably going to be, you know, as an export product for countries that are closely aligned with China and have benefited from Belt and Road Initiative projects. You know, whether it's in Southeast Asia or Africa, where there is effectively an operational market seeded with new airports and new infrastructure that China's paid for. But yeah, China is here and it's just going to take time. But they're only going in one direction.
- [25:13]
A
All right, John, I know you've been gallivanting around the world here, so I'll give you a break this week, but it is your job to come up with haikus for us, I believe you recall. So make sure that you've got one going forward. But this week we have one from a listener, Jason. He says, future for the North.
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Smash eights are long in the tooth. ATR Too fat. So there you go. I think that was a question for us. What is going to happen in the north of Canada with all these.
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Props, maybe not able to fulfill their. Their missions as they are today. And I don't have an answer to that. So maybe that's when we can just let listeners chew on.
- [25:57]
B
All I know is that it's going to need a gravel kit.
- [25:58]
A
Yeah.
- [26:03]
You'Ve been listening to the Air Show. If you have suggestions or questions for us or haikus, or if you're interested in sponsoring the podcast, go to our website, theairshowpodcast.com to get in touch.
- [26:14]
B
The Air show podcast is produced and edited by Sarah Faye. Theme music is by Joshua Moser. Thanks for listening. We'll be back soon.