The Air Show: The Essential Dubai Airshow Recap

Podcast: The Air Show
Host: Shayr Media
Panelists: Jon Ostrower (Editor-in-Chief, The Air Current), Brian Sumers, Brett Snyder (Author, Cranky Flyer)
Episode Date: December 6, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jon Ostrower returns from the 2025 Dubai Airshow to debrief with co-host Brett Snyder on the most significant developments in commercial aviation. While the discussion briefly touches on feedback from previous episodes about Delta Air Lines’ leadership and tech, the focus quickly turns to the seismic moves by Emirates and Flydubai, the future of Dubai aviation infrastructure, and the growing importance of Chinese aerospace manufacturing. The panel brings insider knowledge, color commentary, and signature banter throughout.

Listener Mail and Delta CEO Discussion (00:48–04:00)

Key Points

• The hosts react to feedback from listeners regarding their previous “Delta extravaganza,” where some listeners felt they missed the mark on Delta’s tech weaknesses.
  • Notable Listener Quote:
    "'One huge area I think you all missed in the analysis is just how poorly Delta’s technology is in comparison to United. And there's really no plan, vision to catch up.'" (01:13)
  • Hosts agree Delta has a reputation for lagging in tech compared to United, and Brett jokes about the industry’s reliance on "hopes and dreams" when it comes to IT systems.
• Another listener argues that the CEO role at airlines shouldn’t just be about finance, but about vision and culture — referencing iconic airline leaders.
• Jon Ostrower reflects on leadership priorities:
  • “Vision and culture are really my first, second, third and fourth priorities. And then fifth...is hiring the team that reflects the culture and brings that vision to life.” (03:24)

Dubai Airshow: Recap and Analysis

1. Dubai’s Ambition as a Global Aviation Hub (05:00–06:40)

• The airshow underscored Dubai’s intent to position itself as the world's preeminent aviation center.
• Major airport transition:
  • Emirates will relocate from Dubai International (DXB) to Dubai World Central (DWC) around 2033.
  • DWC is projected to handle up to 250 million passengers per year—over twice Atlanta’s current throughput.

Notable Quote:

"Dubai, unsurprisingly, was about the ascent of Dubai as really the center of the global aviation world."
— Jon Ostrower (05:00)

2. Emirates and the Boeing 777X Order (06:40–16:26)

Announcement Highlights

• Emirates made headlines with an order of 65 additional Boeing 777-9s, bringing their total to 270.
• First deliveries now expected in Q2 2027—seven years later than initially planned.

Boeing’s Certification Challenges (07:29–09:16)

• Discussion about Boeing’s ongoing difficulties with aircraft certification (Max 7, Max 10, 777X).
• FAA certification process explained:
  • “Boeing at the show confirmed that they had received phase three type inspection authorization...it's a really big indicator of the momentum that Boeing is building.” (08:03)

Emirates’ Leverage on 777X Stretch (09:39–16:26)

• Emirates’ order includes a commitment for Boeing to study a further 777X stretch (unofficially, the 777-10), potentially to replace their A380s.
• Boeing’s advantage: With the 777X’s larger engine and wing, it can more easily accommodate a stretch than Airbus can with the A350.
• Detailed discussion of technical challenges:
  • A possible stretch could add 50–60 more seats, with the aircraft becoming even longer than an A380 is wide (13:04–14:54).
  • Considerations include runway performance, tail strikes, and evacuation logistics.
  • “At the end of the day, I think that a 777-10...all indications point to a high density people mover...” (16:17)

Commentary:

• “Anytime you develop an airplane just for Emirates, it always works perfectly. And no one ever regrets doing that, right?”
  — Brett Snyder, tongue-in-cheek (16:26)

3. Flydubai’s Airbus A321neo Move (18:09–21:18)

The Order and Its Significance

• Flydubai, previously all-Boeing, commits to 150 A321neos—deliveries beginning in 2031.
• Not a total surprise: Flydubai has discussed Airbus orders before, and their CEO offered detailed strategic reasoning.

Rationale Behind the Deal

• The A321neo will enable Flydubai to operate longer single-aisle segments (~9 hours) with more seats than their 737 MAXs.
  • “This deal is really about more range. Their CEO told me…really pushing the fleet from 7 hour single aisle flying on the max...to really a 9 hour segment with 15 seats more.” (19:53)
• Fleet diversification is not a concern given their scale.
• Flydubai has evolved from a low-cost carrier to a more premium product, and has closer operational ties to Emirates.
• Speculation on a future merger, similar to Singapore’s absorption of SilkAir or Cathay Pacific’s merger with Dragonair.

4. The Rise of Chinese Aerospace: The COMAC C919 (21:34–24:22)

Significant Airshow Moment

• Jon shares what he calls the “most profound moment of the show”: seeing the China Southern COMAC C919 on display.
  • “The build quality of that airplane is as good or better than anything that comes out of our factories.” (22:26, paraphrased from a manufacturer colleague)
  • Jon compares the latest COMAC C919 with past examples, noting clear generational progress.
• Takeaway: Chinese manufacturing quality in commercial aircraft now matches western manufacturers.
  • “Western perceptions of Chinese quality and aerospace products are an anachronism. China...has figured out how to do high rate, high quality production with consumer electronics and electric cars. By the way, those are inherently linked because of the crossover skills for both.” (23:05)
• Caveats: China will need to scale production rates and gain global certifications, but Jon’s assessment is unequivocal:
  • “Chinese aerospace is ascendant on this very, very important metric.” (24:17)

Political and Market Implications

• Main hurdles are political (FAA/EASA certification), not technical.
• Expect initial exports to Belt and Road partner countries.

5. Memorable Quotes & Segments

• On FAA Aircraft Certification:
  “Boeing at the show confirmed they had received phase three type inspection authorization...it's a really big indicator of the momentum that Boeing is building.” (08:03)
• On Aircraft Naming Conventions:
  "Why are we naming airplanes in the dumbest way possible now? ...we can't go like 1100. We're starting at eights and...it's driving me up the wall."
  — Brett Snyder (11:24)
• On the Future of Chinese Aviation:
  “The Chinese aerospace industry can now build a large commercial airplane with the same levels of quality as Boeing, Airbus...”
  — Jon Ostrower (23:05–23:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Delta CEO & Tech Feedback: 00:48–04:00
• Dubai as Aviation Hub: 05:00–06:40
• Emirates 777X Order / Boeing Certification: 06:40–09:16
• 777X Stretch & Technical Discussion: 09:39–16:26
• Flydubai’s A321neo Deal: 18:09–21:18
• COMAC C919 & Chinese Aerospace: 21:34–24:22
• Closing Haiku & Northern Canada Fleet Question: 25:13–25:56

Listener Haiku and Final Thoughts (25:13–25:58)

• Listener Jason submits a haiku about the aging northern Canadian fleet:

  “Smash eights are long in the tooth. ATR too fat.” (25:32)

• Hosts briefly muse about the future of turboprops in remote regions.

Summary

This Dubai Airshow recap episode provides a comprehensive, behind-the-scenes look at the commercial aviation power shift centered on Dubai. It covers massive fleet orders, the intricacies and politics of aircraft certifications, technical aircraft design challenges, possible future airline mergers in the Gulf, and—perhaps most notably—China’s rapid ascent to first-world aircraft quality. The hosts balance insider technical detail with humor and industry context, making the episode rich with both information and personality.