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- [00:02]
A
I'm Brian Summers and I write the Airline Observer.
- [00:05]
B
And I'm Brett Snyder, author of Cranky Flyer. You're listening to the Air show, the podcast where we talk about what happens in the business of the sky. This week's episode is sponsored by skygo. Stay in the moment with your aviation curiosity. Explore scheduled data by airline, airport route and aircraft in seconds right from your phone currently in beta. Learn more@theairshowpodcast.com SkyGo Now, Brian, you were on the other side of the Atlantic last week on vacation. But this week let's talk about what's going on over a different ocean.
- [00:37]
A
The Indian?
- [00:38]
B
No, but I appreciate the attempt. We are going to talk about the ol Sea of Magellan, the mighty Pacific, as it were.
- [00:46]
A
Brett, we're not going to do another interisland episode though. You guys did a great job with that. Good news here. Not that we had any doubt, but John Scoop was correct. Hawaiian has now chosen the 7337800 to replace the 717. That and many other reasons why we like John.
- [01:08]
B
Yes, we do love John. But no, that is not what I was going to talk about this week. I did write it up on Cranky Flyer for those who want more. But what I really want to talk about is flying over the whole ocean. Because while transatlantic strategies are pretty well set for North American carriers, Trans Pacific strategies are definitely not.
- [01:28]
A
Is this all about Delta's announcement to fly from Los Angeles to Manila?
- [01:34]
B
Yes. You know me so well. To be fair, I do think about this every time there's an announcement over the Pacific. But Delta does seem to have shifted its strategy once again. And for an airline that does as well as it does, it's surprising to me that a region as important as the Pacific is still something that does not feel settled.
- [01:57]
A
Certainly not as settled as United, which has a more or less mature network. Delta's in catch up mode at this point. I do think that's by design. Delta, as we all know, likes to move methodically. It's an airline that has 10 year plans or even more. And now with South America and Europe mostly settled, I think it's taking another look at its Pacific network. We are probably just at the beginning of a fairly long journey journey, so I think you should set the stage for us. Brett, before we get into this chat about what the journey is going to look like. John's out this week. He's at the Farnborough International Air Show. He is of course a resident historian and professor. Do you want to fill in now and give us a history lesson.
- [02:46]
B
I mean, you're saying that, but I think I'm the one who likes to go back. The year was 1929. It's. We don't need to go that far back. But I, I did go into cerium and I pulled out Delta's flying over the last couple of decades and of course included Northwest because that's pretty much what Delta's current Asian strategy is from is the merged carrier. So Northwest was one of the beneficiaries of the spoils of World War II. It had the right to use Tokyo as a base to fly beyond into other parts of Asia. And that really mattered when this was going on, because back then, aircraft didn't have the range to bypass Tokyo any. But this was a strategy that stuck around well beyond the point that aircraft range required it.
- [03:30]
A
So, Brett, just to be clear, you weren't going to go back to 1929, but I think you just went back to 1945.
- [03:37]
B
Well, that's much later. It's. Yes, I'm aware, but that was it. Now we're zooming forward to 2004. Okay. Because that year, nearly half of all Delta Northwest flights that went to Asia departed from Japan. Northwest actually served 10 Asian cities from there and from the U.S. detroit was Northwest Primary Gateway, but after that, number two was Honolulu, which is more about serving people in the Tokyo hub than actually people in the U.S. northwest was
- [04:08]
A
such an Asian powerhouse back in the day. What I wouldn't do to see some more classic 7 47s flying across the Pacific. I do miss that era. I do think it's worth noting, Brett, what Standal Delta was up to in that era. It was still like a Georgia crop dusting operation at that point, right? Okay, fine. I kid, but, you know, as recently as 20 years ago, it had mostly given up on Asia. Around that time, Atlanta to Narita was the only flight that Delta operated to Asia at all. At one point, it tried a Portland hub on MD11s back in the day, but by the early 2000s, that was gone.
- [04:51]
B
Yes, it was. I Remember flying an MD11 from LAX to Portland one time to position for that. I'm sure it was a huge moneymaker for them. But anyway, let's fast forward to the Northwest merger. That was around 2010 when Japan started to lose prominence in the network. And then more overflight began deeper into Asia. So the Japan hub was. Was steadily pruned from that point until the pandemic. It wasn't like one day it just disappeared. But then when the pandemic hit, that's when it went away completely.
- [05:21]
A
Right. And I think that this made sense for a couple of reasons. First, Delta could fly wherever it wanted in Asia or almost wherever it wanted from the United States nonstop. And second, it had a partner in Asia that it really liked in Korean Airlines, a joint venture with Korean started in 2018. And then it was like a switch flipped once the pandemic hit. Delta was far more interested at that point in feeding Asia through Incheon and than Tokyo. I don't think that Delta's pilots like that strategy so much, but it worked well enough for Delta.
- [05:57]
B
Yeah, no, I think you're right on the pilots. But hey, now they're getting growth again, so they should be happy. But here's a fun fact for you. In 2016, Delta had fewer than 200,000 seats departing Incheon. That hit 380,000 in 2019, nearly 450,000 in 2023, and it should be just shy of 600,000 this year. This year, Incheon and Haneda are almost. So I imagine next year we'll be the first to see Incheon become Delta's largest Asian station.
- [06:27]
A
Yeah, and funneling this traffic through Incheon is really efficient for Delta. But let's remember, not everybody wants to connect in Korea on their way to their final destination. United has learned over the years that it can be more profitable to fly people from the United States directly to Asia. Of course, United has something that Delta does not, which is to say the best Asian gateway from the United States, and that's San Francisco.
- [06:55]
B
Yes, it does. And United, I should note, was in a similar situation in Northwest since it picked up Pan Am's Japan rights back in 1986 when it bought the Pacific network from them. But United saw the power of SFO and then started to pull back on Japan before Delta. Most of that was gone in the 2012, 2013 timeframe, though Narita Incheon lasted until 2017.
- [07:19]
A
The interesting thing is that some of that has come back now, albeit in a different way. United has built up San Francisco to serve most of the major cities in Asia and some smaller ones. It's pretty incredible what United has done. IT now serves 11 airports in Asia from San Francisco, including this winter's newest addition, the Japan skiing hotspot of Sapporo. But there are a lot of cities beyond Tokyo that don't have as much demand. So United has brought back the Tokyo hub so it can fly. What are going to be soon. 737 maxs to expand the reach and
- [08:00]
B
where are those planes going?
- [08:02]
A
You're going to make me do this after last week's debacle with my French pronunciation?
- [08:08]
B
Well, I'd let you say they're airport codes instead, but we know you don't know those, so yes, I am.
- [08:13]
A
Okay, fine, Brett. Let me give it a go. United now has flights from Tokyo to Cebu, Gaohsiung and Ulan Batar.
- [08:23]
B
Well done.
- [08:25]
A
From Hong Kong on 787s. United now has beyond flying to Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. In all, United is up to 17 destinations in east and Southeast Asia. We're not even including the rest of the Pacific. But United is the clear leader in the whole region. Except Adelaide.
- [08:49]
B
Well, they're still the leader in Adelaide. Who else is there?
- [08:53]
A
Good point.
- [08:54]
B
Okay, Brian, do you know how many Asian destinations Delta has? 5. Or it had 5 until it announced Manila will start from LA next March. So now it's up to 6. The question in my mind though is how did this go so wrong for Delta?
- [09:10]
A
Brett, I don't think that wrong is the right word. I spoke before about Delta's 10 year plans. The architect of that was Glenn Howenstein, the former president of Delta. He retired in February, but this is still pretty much the commercial operation that he created. He liked a grand plan and he had a great reputation, so it's hard to criticize him. I would just say that he had not quite gotten to Asia yet. He had some very nice success elsewhere. The Atlantic, of course. And then don't forget, he stole Latam from American. That said, I can probably guess why Asia might have come last. Delta doesn't quite have the hubs for it. Seattle should have been the one. It has the corporate base, the lucrative local market, and very good geography. It also has a little less competition. We know that some Asian airlines fly there, but it doesn't have what I might call the Los Angeles problem, where the most random Asian airline decides that LAX must be its first mainland US destination and it doesn't care how much it loses. Until a year ago, Delta didn't even have a domestic competitor that wanted to fly long haul from Seattle. But I think we know Seattle hasn't worked out the way Delta thought it would. That's probably a topic for another day, but let's give Alaska some credit for that. So now we see a lot of growth in Los Angeles. For people who aren't really aware of geography, it probably seems like a good Asia hub, but it's really not. If you look at a map, it is not the most direct way for most Americans to reach Asia. And of course, it has that competition problem also. One other thing, Brett, Delta likes to crow about how it's number one in LA by a small margin, but it's also real estate constrained and there isn't that much feed. It's not like there's 600 flights a day that are going to feed these flights to Asia. Now, on the bright side, Los Angeles is one of those gigantic local markets, so you know, if your fares are low enough, you can fill the airplane. What do you think, Brett?
- [11:29]
B
Well, I do think there's a lot going on here, but I won't give Glenn as much of a pass as you do here.
- [11:35]
A
The man is a deity, Brett.
- [11:37]
B
A deity. Oh my gosh, if you say that about him, what do you say about Scott Kirby? But look, as I see it, this should have been dealt with sooner. There definitely seems to have been an over reliance on Korean over the few years, and that has given United the opportunity to just walk right in and eat Delta's lunch. But it's more than that because United also has the right airplanes. Delta's Transpac fleet skews big, right? They use the A350 900 today, which is good for trunk routes, although Delta is now going to go even bigger with the A350 1000, which also great airplane for that purpose, but it makes it harder to open new, thinner routes. And the 787 is the better airplane for that kind of flying, as United has shown us. There's also the gateway issue. United is in San Francisco. That is the best Asian gateway, unquestionably. And Delta had to pick between Seattle and la. And you know, as you say, there are reasons to think about either one, but the problem is that they haven't really been able to settle on either.
- [12:38]
A
No, but Brett, let me first respond to the whole airplane thing. I have learned that all these airline planners, they all want what they don't have. So you're right. United has the right airplane for many of these routes. But the 350 I hear is better on others, especially routes that are a little bit farther. We saw Air Canada go for the A350, a sub fleet for future orders because they have other things that they want to do in Asia. I suspect at United, Patrick Whale would love some A350 1000s, but because of some drama with Rolls Royce, he's probably not going to get them.
- [13:17]
B
I don't disagree with that. Like I said, the A350 1000 is great for Big routes. And really Manila is the kind of route where you want something like that. United's running two 777 300ers every day. I imagine Patrick would love that. A 351,000 for that route, but at least it has an airplane that can do the flight. But how would Delta do something like a Sapporo? There's just too much airplane. And it hasn't shown an interest in bringing the 330neos over from the Atlantic either. Which maybe works, but I'm not sure that it's as good as the 787 for that purpose either.
- [13:53]
A
Yeah, that's an interesting one, Brett. Delta has thus far preferred the A350, especially from Los Angeles. I don't know that they've ever said why. Perhaps at some point we can ask Delta why they don't give the 330neo a go. As for Seattle, it did seem like Seattle would be the big winner when the Tokyo Tokyo hub was dismantled. In addition to the long standing Seattle to Narita flights, Delta added Beijing and Osaka in 2010. Eventually it had Beijing, Haneda, Hong Kong, Incheon, Shanghai and Taipei. Meanwhile, LAX had only the two Tokyo airports until it added Shanghai in 2015. But that was it.
- [14:38]
B
Yeah, and so now Seattle is not getting the love in LA is. So when do you think this plan changed?
- [14:46]
A
Hard for me to say exactly, Brett. It's not like I speak to anybody at the Kremlin, actually. I mean the Delta headquarters.
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B
Okay, let me just get this straight. Delta has 10 year plans and works in the Kremlin? Are you calling Delta communist? Is this.
- [15:03]
A
I think that that would be the thing that Ed Bastian would hate most in life.
- [15:10]
B
All right, well, for me, I think it changed. It was the pandemic when everything started to shift there. Well, I think it was two things, one more obvious than the other. The obvious thing is that American walked away from LAX as its Pacific gateway. The less obvious though, but maybe more impactful thing is the reduction in China flying.
- [15:30]
A
That is a big one, Brett. I got tired before the pandemic of tracking all these Chinese airlines that were flying to Los Angeles. And remember they were selling lot of extremely cheap beyond connections behind these Chinese cities. So it wasn't just non stop traffic.
- [15:48]
B
Oh, exactly right. And they had so many seats. So check this out. In 2019, more than a quarter of all seats departing LAX for Asia were on a Chinese airline. And that doesn't include Hong Kong. Those mainland Chinese airlines, they had really low costs, good subsidies, low fares, really hard to compete with such a flood of cheap capacity. But now that China's airlines have been limited to the U.S. they have less than 10% of Asian seats departing LAX, and that is a huge change.
- [16:22]
A
There's also this American withdrawal that you mentioned. I know that Delta has a lot of hubris, and I think by all accounts that it is a better run airline than American. But let's remember that American learned the hard way just how hard it is to build a connecting Asia operation in Los Angeles. After the pandemic, it dropped Narita, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai. It also stopped flying to Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo. And those were partially a play for that Asia, South America traffic. Yes, but always a butt with you, Brett. What do you got?
- [17:04]
B
Well, it's United because American shrunk back down to only serving Haneda. But United has backfilled, and that probably surprises a lot of people. In fact, it surprised me when I looked at the numbers. When the pandemic hit. United had one daily to both Narita and Shanghai, and that was it. By fall of 2023, it had Haneda and Hong Kong in the mix alongside Narita. Shanghai returned in August of 2024, and then Beijing in May 2025. And does that sound familiar? It should, because it basically replaced American. And let me put it another way. In 2019, American and United combined had almost the same exact number of seats from LAX to Asia as in 2025. It's just that in 2019, American had three quarters of those seats, and in 2025, United had three quarters of them.
- [17:53]
A
So it does make sense why Delta is making this move. We can assume that maybe it doesn't want to let west coast gateways to itself in very important cities. Delta has also been very focused on corporate sales, and I think it's possible that they're losing some share to United. I sense under the surface, there's a nice little rivalry between United and Delta, certainly not at the level of American and United, but we all know that the two airlines notice what each other do. That said, it seems they don't want to make any sort of feud public. Allie Seider of the Wall Street Journal earlier this month asked Andrew Nacella, United's chief Commercial officer, directly about the LA competition. I really found it interesting, Brett, that Nacella refused to engage. More or less. It has been a battleground, but so
- [18:54]
B
is New York, so is Chicago, so is San Francisco.
- [18:57]
A
Like, I feel we're in an incredibly competitive industry. The dynamics in L A are clearly,
- [19:03]
B
at least four large US carriers with similar shares. I expect that to be true a
- [19:10]
A
year from now, five years from now, and ten years from now. Translation, of course, Delta is not going to win there, huh?
- [19:16]
B
Sure, yeah. I mean, it's all coded, but yes, it is competitive. He is not lying about that. But on the other hand, there's Seattle, where, you know, there is now this growing pressure. As you mentioned, Alaska is now entering the long haul market. And Delta's not just going to let Alaska have that market, but it just makes it tougher for Delta and it's already a tough market for them. But the big selling point for Delta in the Seattle corporate market was that it could serve a company's full needs and Alaska couldn't. And that is quickly being eroded.
- [19:47]
A
The numbers show that Seattle is by far Delta's worst performing hub financially. So we looked back at Cirium for the last four quarters ending in March of this year, we found that Seattle's domestic stage length adjusted unit revenue was more than 15% below the system average. And it was two and a half points below the next lowest, which was Salt Lake.
- [20:16]
B
Yeah, I mean, Delta, we know, hates to admit if it's been beaten and it's going to keep flying Seattle as long as it doesn't drag earnings down too much. But I do kind of have to wonder, like, if Austin had more gates right now, would Delta be tempted to move those airplanes from Seattle down there? Who knows? We'll see in a few years when Austin does have gates. But Seattle has been floundering for some time, especially on Trans Pacific. Most of it has gone away. If you look, Osaka went away in 2013 except for a brief blip of a return in 2019. Hong Kong stopped in 2018. Both Beijing and Narita ended with the pandemic. So it's a shell of what it used to be.
- [20:56]
A
So in Seattle, that leaves the big three corporate markets. Those are Haneda, Incheon, Shanghai plus Taipei. I assume the last one is probably about chip makers though. It is a brutally competitive market with all three Taiwanese airlines also in that market. Side note, why do they have three of them?
- [21:21]
B
That would be a fascinating podcast. The starlux Eva dynamic of hate. Basically it's a grudge I think is why there are three of them. But let's save that for another time. Taipei. I'm sure it's required for some of the big corporates and fine, but it should be noted that is the one market Delta serves from Seattle in Asia that's not served from la. Well, Delta also doesn't serve Incheon from la. But you know, joint venture partner Korean has a ton of service. Even more when you include Asiana. Anyway, but now we have Delta adding Hong Kong from la, just started last month, and then Manila starting next March. It does seem that LA is now the preferred gateway for new service.
- [22:02]
A
You did write on Cranky Flyer Brett about how Delta has a gate advantage in Los Angeles for a little while thanks to construction that American is doing on its complex. So perhaps now is time to make the move. Hong Kong seems like a pretty obvious move since Delta doesn't serve it at all and it is still an important financial and corporate destination. But Delta is only going to be flying it once a day compared to United at twice. And then Delta does not have the beyond service. Let's talk about Manila, though. Manila came before another major Asian financial destination, and that is Singapore. Why do you think Delta did that?
- [22:49]
B
It does seem a little surprising for a premium carrier like Delta, right? You'd think that's where they'd want to be. Manila is definitely less premium, but it is a huge market and Delta operates huge airplanes, so maybe that's why it's bigger than anything in Asia except Tokyo and Seoul from la, actually. So it is huge. Plus in. In Singapore you already have that issue of ample service on a very premium airline, Singapore Airlines. Manila has a less premium offering from Philippine, though it is trying to improve. So Delta probably sees an opportunity, especially since it can copy United, which only entered SFO Manila in fall 2023 and has already gone double daily there. So there's clearly something there.
- [23:34]
A
And let's remember, Delta has been in this market in the not so distant past. Manila was one of the last beyond Tokyo flights to survive. It made it all the way up until the pandemic. So Delta clearly has some pretty good data on this one.
- [23:53]
B
Yeah, it was the last route to survive in the Tokyo hub. So this wasn't supposed to be just about Delta and United on this episode. And we haven't said too much about American strategy except for a little bit earlier. So let's talk about that.
- [24:08]
A
American strategy in Asia. Are we. Are we sure about that?
- [24:12]
B
What do we have?
- [24:12]
A
20 seconds?
- [24:14]
B
Go right ahead. Knock it out.
- [24:16]
A
Yeah, not so sure there's much of a strategy there. After American retreated from la. As far as the Trans Pacific operation, it has basically outsourced its Asia presence to jal. Kind of like how Delta had been doing with Korean. American flies to Tokyo from only dfw, JFK and la. It is going back into Chicago. It's replacing JAL on the o' Hare Narita route next year. Other than that, American only does DFW to Incheon and Shanghai. That is it.
- [24:55]
B
Yeah, it's incredible, isn't it? It's amazing how little service there is. But also the partnering thing, I'm just. This confuses me because as much as I dislike Delta's over focus on Incheon. Delta and Korean together Serve Incheon with 19 daily flights from 13 markets in the continental U.S. it is a big presence, so at least provides a ton of opportunity to feed into Korean's network. Now American and ja, they have 17 daily flights but they only serve eight markets. So they do a lot of hub flying but they don't really expand the presence into other important markets in the US I'm sure part of the problem is that split between airports, the Haneda Narita issue. But Narita is the connecting hub beyond Tokyo. That's how they build it. And if I'm American, I'm doing Phoenix. I'm thinking about Las Vegas and Portland. I'm probably even pondering Miami. It's probably too early, but I'd think about places like Austin down the line. But that requires investment. And I think American is very focused right now and trying to fix its revenue problem in the near term. This is not a short term solution to that by going into a lot of these markets, but it would be a long term strategy.
- [26:10]
A
I don't see it happening anytime soon. It is not a great position for American to be in to be the number three carrier on the United States to Asia. It would be a long time before American could do much about the number three position. And as a competitor CEO likes to say, if you're not first, you're last. So probably makes more sense for American to focus on the areas where it still has strength.
- [26:37]
B
Wait, when did Ricky Bobby become a CEO of an airline? This is news. If you ain't first, you're last. Anyway, he's got jokes, ones that almost make you laugh, but most people just laugh at you. Not laughing at my jokes I think is how it works. But that, that is the big three. Oh, and I guess we touched on Alaska. That's obviously the focus on Seattle in the future. Mostly hitting big markets to start. We'll see what else they add. That one's pretty straightforward for now. The only wild card there is whether Alaska ends up in the American and Japan Airlines joint venture. Because if it does, and by the way it should, then that actually gives American more of a strategy and of course bolsters Alaska's position. But we don't know. We'll see about that.
- [27:22]
A
That I agree with you, Brett, but it seems you have forgotten about one very big competitor.
- [27:30]
B
I did?
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A
Yep. Air Canada.
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B
Oh, yeah, you're right. Sorry, Canadians. And I don't want to be canceled up there. So let me just add je suis de soleil.
- [27:39]
A
Congrats, Brett. It seems that you can speak enough French to be a CEO of a Canadian airline, but Air Canada. Air Canada does matter. It's an airline that serves 10 destinations in Asia from Vancouver, including new additions to Bangkok, Sapporo and Singapore. And let's not forget, Air Canada serves five destinations from Toronto and two from Montreal. And before anybody interrupts us and says they're not really a competitor, let's remember they're not in the ana. United Trans Pacific Pacific Joint Venture.
- [28:18]
B
That's right. They're only in the Atlantic one and the Trans border. But Air Canada, it's also a very different kind of market that they're serving. They have a lot fewer premium seats and Canada is just a smaller market. Anyway, let's put it this way. I went back into cerium this month. July 2026. Air Canada has seven or eight daily flights from Vancouver to Asia with just shy of 64, 000 seats, about 10% of which are flatbeds. From San Francisco. United has 15 daily flights with almost 141,000 seats, more than 18% of which are flatbeds. So yes, Air Canada matters, and it's good to see them growing. But from a US perspective, this is going to appeal more to price sensitive travelers, even though a Vancouver connection is not a bad way to go at all.
- [29:06]
A
Not bad at all, Brett. I am not convinced that people look at a map, but yvr very nice place to connect the fastest way from North America to Asia. Also, Air Canada might be smaller in Vancouver than United is in San Francisco. But I have spoken a few times with Chief Commercial Officer Mark Aguilardo. I don't think he's done. Plus, Air Canada has a different strategy than the U.S. airlines. It likes the flatbed revenue and the U.S. customers very much. But Air Canada is really making a play for Canada VFR traffic. Gallardo is looking extremely carefully at immigration flows to Canada. Just want to remind you and our listeners that Canada still accepts immigrants and appreciates them.
- [30:00]
B
Well, Delta is apparently doing the same thing because Manila is a gigantic VFR market.
- [30:05]
A
It.
- [30:06]
B
We may not be allowing immigrants currently, but we have plenty of Filipinos who live here in the in the US today. But I'm not trying to make Air Canada look bad. I love what that airline has been doing. My point is it's just a somewhat smaller part of the landscape from the US to the Pacific. Anyway, if I were going to sum this up, I'd say United is the king. Just keeps adding to its lead and it's not afraid to take chances as we've seen with this Sapporo flight, which Air Canada will also be trying this year. I hear here there's some question who was first? I I think we need to get them in a boxing ring. But Air Canada punches above its weight as well. It just serves a smaller market. It's just slightly different, but doing a great job with that. Delta has finally awakened from its slumber and is trying to play catch up, but it might not have the fleet to actually get there. Alaska has a very specific goal to serve Seattle, but it's all new, so we'll see how that develops. And American is. Well, it's American.
- [31:06]
A
You've been listening to the Air Show. If you have suggestions or questions for us, or if you're interested in sponsoring the podcast, email us@infoheershowpodcast.com or visit theairshowpodcast.com to get in touch.
- [31:22]
B
Thank you to this week's sponsor, skygo. Leo Duran produced and edited this episode. Our theme music is by Joshua Moore Moser. Thanks for listening and we'll be back soon.