2: David Rothkopf and Paul Rieckhoff on The Iran War

Summary

The Al Franken Podcast

Episode: David Rothkopf and Paul Rieckhoff on The Iran War
Date: March 8, 2026

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Overview

This episode dives into the chaos and implications of President Trump's new war with Iran—the largest military venture of his term. Host Al Franken is joined by foreign affairs analyst David Rothkopf and Iraq vet/podcast host Paul Rieckhoff. Together, they untangle the origins, motives, failures, and mounting perils of the conflict, addressing U.S. foreign policy blunders, ceding of democratic norms, the risk of escalation, and Trump’s mindset.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins and Context of US-Iran Relations

• Historical Background
  • The 1953 CIA-backed coup that installed the Shah marked the beginning of a disastrous US-Iran relationship, ultimately leading to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and decades of enmity.

    “That's when we started screwing up the relationship with Iran… as it turned out, the Shah was brutal, authoritarian and corrupt. And so it opened the door for anti shah movements to emerge.”
    —David Rothkopf (05:05)

• Iran became a top US enemy and the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, but war was avoided due to high risks of escalation (05:05–06:27).

2. The Current War: Aims, Contradictions, and Mismanagement

• No Clear Strategy

  • Trump's stated objectives fluctuate between regime change and destroying Iran’s nuclear program, sowing confusion domestically and internationally.
  • The war is costing ~$1 billion/day (06:36, 33:20).
  • Allies were blindsided; there’s no functioning policy process in the White House.

    “As the FT wrote about it yesterday: not a war of choice, it's a war of whimsical. And the stakes are huge.”
    —David Rothkopf (07:51)

• Casualties and Atrocities

  • Thousands of Iranian civilians have died, and demonstrations are brutally suppressed by the Revolutionary Guard.
  • US military casualties continue to mount, with poor transparency for families (26:07–26:52).

• War Powers Act Ignored

  • Congressional authority is bypassed, with neither party effectively checking presidential overreach (07:45).

3. Trump’s Mindset and Motivations

• Authoritarian Drift and Lack of Constraints

  • Trump is seen as an unpredictable, self-interested leader, leveraging the military as a personal tool.

    “Donald Trump can do anything he wants with the most powerful military the world has ever seen, and nothing is stopping him.”
    —Paul Rieckhoff (12:58)

  • Rieckhoff draws parallels to previous US wars and notes a lack of institutional brakes (13:57).
  • Both guests argue Trump is eager to use emergency powers to delay or subvert elections (22:32).

    “Trump can be using that as a tool… a foreign war that creates a national emergency that allows him to increase the hammer on the American people and stop the elections. That is the plan.”
    —Paul Rieckhoff (24:12)

• Erratic Announcements and Egomania

  • Trump announced the war on Truth Social at 2 AM (32:22).
  • Shows detachment from reality and focus on self-aggrandizement (e.g., digressions about his White House ballroom while honoring Medal of Honor winners) (30:37–31:29).

4. Public and Political Response

• Unpopularity
  • The war is deeply unpopular, with only 23% support among Americans (19:52, 39:02).
• Political Dynamics and Congressional Inaction
  • Congress is compared to “mall cops” unable to meaningfully restrain the president (13:57).
• Potential Backlash
  • Rising casualties, higher gas prices, and escalating costs may spur Republicans to demand an end to the war (27:16).

5. Geopolitical Risk and Possible Escalation

• Regional Dangers

  • The war is already beginning to spill across borders, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and threatening global oil supplies (21:23, 28:33).
  • The conflict could trigger a new wave of terrorism and may spark a nuclear arms race (‘message of this war is we wouldn’t have attacked Iran if they had nuclear weapons’) (39:23).
  • The possibility of drone attacks on American or Western cities is raised (21:23–22:32; 42:54–44:47).

• US Isolation and Loss of Credibility

  • America is more isolated than ever; allies are alienated and may not join future coalition efforts (46:16–47:04).

    “The way we feel about Trump is probably not even as intense as the rest of the world feels... How’d you like to be in a global or regional war when nobody likes you? That’s the reality of what we’ve got right now. And China is the big winner.”
    —Paul Rieckhoff (47:04)

6. Institutional Decay and Future Risks

• Lack of Planning, Accountability, or Exit Strategy
  • There’s minimal transparency, erratic communication from the White House, and little evidence of serious military planning (48:47–49:27).
• Forever War and Domestic Consequences
  • Potential for open-ended, expanding conflict with high US casualties and growing domestic opposition (34:15).
  • Trump’s moves are partly seen as distractions from scandals, like Epstein, but also as naked power plays (49:27–51:08).

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Congressional Inaction:

  “The Congress is like the mall cops of our democracy right now. Like, they can't even write tickets. They can't arrest anybody. They can't do anything.”
  —Paul Rieckhoff (13:57)

• On Strategy:

  “What we have going on here is not a war of choice or a war of whim. It's the product of a diseased mind. It's a product of somebody who's trying to cover up his problems at home, express his manhood to the world...”
  —David Rothkopf (36:15)

• On Trump's Announcements:

  “He announced the war. Did seem strange to you how he announced the war, that he went on Truth Social at 2 in the morning.”
  —Al Franken (32:11)

• On US Isolation:

  “We are becoming more and more isolated... nobody likes him. We pissed off everybody. So how’d you like to be in a global or regional war when nobody likes you?”
  —Paul Rieckhoff (47:04)

• On American Control Slipping:

  “We are not in charge of this right now. We think that America can still control these events. We are not respected, we are not trusted, and we are not in control. And every enemy gets a vote and every ally gets a vote.”
  —Paul Rieckhoff (42:54)

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Key Segment Timestamps

• Opening and Theme Setup – War with Iran, lack of clarity, aimless escalation (00:34–03:56)
• US-Iran History & Policy Blunders – Rothkopf on 1953 coup, revolution (05:05–06:27)
• War Strategy & Confusion – Faulty White House processes, “war of whimsical” (07:45–08:42)
• Casualties, Transparency, and Public Reaction (26:07–27:53)
• Congressional Inaction / Institutional Checks (13:57, 24:12)
• Regional Escalation, US Isolation (21:23–23:23, 46:16–47:04)
• Drone Warfare and Future Threats (21:23, 42:54–44:47)
• China’s Advantage and Shifting Global Order (47:04–48:22)
• Planning and Motivation: Epstein Distraction (49:27–51:08)
• Wrap-up and Closing Thoughts (51:08–51:23)

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Conclusion

This episode is a sobering, darkly witty look at the perils of a leader unmoored from strategic or democratic checks. It maps out the dangers the Iran war presents—not only as a foreign policy debacle but as a dire signal for American democracy and global stability. The guests urge listeners to recognize the seriousness of the moment, the hollowness of current US power, and the desperate need for decisive, imaginative resistance—before it's too late.

Transcript

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[Al Franken]

Hey, everybody. It's a great one today, you know, for a change, Foreign affairs analyst David Rothkoff returns. And Paul Rykoff, Iraq vet and host of the Independent Americans podcast, join me to discuss Trump's latest war. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again. So, President Donald J. Trump has taken us to war. This is his eighth this term, but by far the biggest one. We are at war with the horrible, horrible regime in Iran, a regime that we have decapitated, maybe literally, but I'm guessing Supreme Leader Khamenei was probably just crushed. I would have been fine with that. If we just stopped there, that wouldn't have changed much. They would just have selected a new supreme leader and probably retaliated with some terrorist attack. Thank God we waited till after the Super Bowl. But we are at war. We are not exactly sure why the goal of this war does seem to change. Trump did at first say the goal was regime change, but Pete Hegseth is now saying, no, not regime change, it's to eradicate the nuclear program. But maybe not that either. I mean, didn't we obliterate it? Are they enriching? All we know for sure is that Trump says, we're going to be there for about four weeks or maybe longer, and maybe, maybe we will put boots on the ground. In the meantime, our air force and Israel are continuing our air assault, which we are very good at. Though it's expensive, it's about a billion dollars a day. Now, for those of you who have been following this war like I have, it's very confusing because we don't really seem to have an official reason or a coherent strategy. We don't know if the folks on the street, the ones who were out protesting in January and getting murdered, we don't know where this is going to end up for them. And I can tell you for sure, Donald Trump doesn't know either. So David Rothkoff and Paul Rykoff and I are going to do our best to sort through the uncertainty, although Paul seems to be a little bit more certain than David and I, because Paul is absolutely convinced that Trump is crazy and is going to do whatever he wants. David and I are a little more measured. We know that Americans don't like this war at all. Only 23% support it. And as we take more casualties, which we will, Republicans running for office will be begging Trump to, to end this thing. It's an uncertain one today, you know, for a change. Hi, David. Hi, Paul. Paul used to be my guest on my Air America show over 20 years ago talking about the Iraq war.

[Paul Rykoff]

Hi, Al. It's good to see you again. I feel like I'm in a fucking time capsule. And we're back at air America in 2004 and we're having a lot of these same conversations. And you. And I remember, I remember you going on USO trips and you've been a great supporter for veterans and a key part of your platform was running against the Iraq war.

[Al Franken]

So am I the only one here who likes Supreme Leader Khal Mani? I don't know why people are so down on him. I mean, he was not a bullshitter. You knew right where he stood. But actually killing him and so many members of the leadership is of course, very good thing. We've had this long entangled history with Iran and can you just talk a little bit about that and the context of where we are now? When exactly did the US first up our relationship with Iran and fuck up Iran? And I'm guessing when we installed the shah right in 53, we, you know,

[David Rothkoff]

that's when we started screwing up the relationship with Iran because we went in and we removed the prime minister and we brought in this guy, the shah, that we thought would better represent our interests. Oil companies and others were pretty happy with that. But of course, as it turned out, the Shah was brutal, authoritarian and corrupt. And so it opened the door for anti shah movements to emerge. And by the late 70s, they took the form of an Islamic revolution. And of course, some of your listeners may remember that when that took place, they took over the U.S. embassy. They held people in the U.S. embassy hostage. And you know, since 1979, Iran has been viewed sort of high atop our enemies list. There is another aspect of this story which I think is important because 1979 was nearly 50 years ago and they've been an enemy ever since. They've been the world's leading state sponsor of terror ever since. And we haven't gone to war with them in that time. And there's a reason, because they're big, they connect to a lot of places. Going to war with them can produce a lot of Outcomes beyond our control. And that's hence where we are.

[Al Franken]

That's our show. Yeah, hence our show. The military aspect of this has been going pretty well, right? Am I right about that, David?

[David Rothkoff]

Well, I mean, it depends on how you're evaluating the military aspect. If you mean planes have been doing what they've been asked to be doing, largely through have been shut down and targeting what they've been supposed to be targeting, largely. We have some thousand Iranian civilians dead, then. Yeah. But, you know, I think at the end of the day, the way you evaluate military action is whether it advances the national security interests of the United States. And we're a long way from knowing whether that's going to happen. I mean, this war could spread throughout the region as it has. It could lead to expanded terrorism activity, which it very well could, could lead to a new global nuclear arms race. That doesn't sound so good to me. It's already cost $5 billion, which is sort of enough to pay 2 million kids SNAP benefits for a year. It's a long way from determining whether this is working well militarily. And in fact, I think there are a lot of science that suggest that from a military perspective as well as from a geopolitical perspective, this was a big mistake.

[Al Franken]

I think so, too. But the War Powers act didn't work. I mean, we're going ahead, right?

[David Rothkoff]

Oh, yeah. I mean, the War Powers act never works. You know, Democrats, Republicans, nobody pays any attention to that. It's just the question of how he ignores the War Powers Act. And this is really one of the most egregious missteps based. Look, we don't have, you know, I wrote two books on the nsc. We don't even have a functioning nsc. There's no policy process working here. He doesn't take advice from anyone. I was talking to a senior diplomat from one of our closest allies last night. They didn't know on Wednesday that this was happening. So two days before, two, three days before it happened, they didn't know what was happening. This is, as the FT wrote about it yesterday, not a war of choice. It's a war of whimsical. And the stakes are huge.

[Al Franken]

So the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ircg, they're killing demonstrators on the street now, maybe they aren't demonstrators because of the bombing, huh?

[David Rothkoff]

There's a lot of killing going on. We're responsible for some of it. They killed 30,000 people in the past month for demonstrating, so surely we might expect that from them as well. And you know, there have been 2,000 missiles launched around the region. So you know, it, you know, and that's produced some death, too. So I think there's plenty of responsibility for unnecessary deaths to go around.

[Al Franken]

Now, Trump said he was going to keep us out of wars. This is, of course, what the he said during the last election. And in fact, he said that Harris would get us in a war.

[David Rothkoff]

Right.

[Al Franken]

And since, I think since he's come to office, we've gone to war eight times or something like that. Is that right?

[Paul Rykoff]

Yep.

[David Rothkoff]

Well, it's eight if you don't count the United States. I mean, he has been sending troops in the US Cities as well.

[Paul Rykoff]

Oh, and Iran twice, essentially. So Iran gets double counted.

[David Rothkoff]

Yeah, exactly.

[Al Franken]

That's true. Okay, but that's one country. It looks like we're going to have a new ayatollah. I mean, this is. There's been contradiction about whether this is about regime change or not.

[David Rothkoff]

Right?

[Al Franken]

There's been a lot of contradictions from the administration.

[David Rothkoff]

Yeah, I mean, they've given a bunch of reasons. You know, in the couple of days after this started, we were doing it to end the nuclear program. We were doing it to end the ICBM program. We were doing it to reduce risk among their proxies. We were doing it to produce regimes, regime change. We were doing it because we saw an imminent threat because the Israelis were going to attack them and then they would attack us. Although Trump then added to that, and he said, well, actually, I told the Israelis to do it, which means. And this is kind of a first in modern warfare. The imminent threat we were responding to actually came from us. You know, Rubio came up with this convoluted thing. He said, well, there was going to be an imminent threat because we knew the Israelis were going to attack them. And once they attacked them, then they would. The Iranians would strike back against our bases. So it made it look like the imminent threat was coming from the Israelis.

[Al Franken]

Trump contradicted that. Right, right.

[David Rothkoff]

Because he wants credit. So he said, no, I told the Israelis to do it. Which means, following Rubio's logic, that the imminent threat actually originated with Trump.

[Al Franken]

So how many protesters were killed in Iran before in, like, in January? Right. It was about. I've seen predictions of 30,000 or so. Who, who does, who does that? Is that the Revolutionary Guard, or are there other troops that do that?

[David Rothkoff]

Well, I mean, the Revolutionary Guard are the, the main force. There are also very large police forces throughout Iran who do this kind of thing. So, you know, it's. It was a It was a sweeping action of the kind they've done before. You know, nobody is saying that this is a great regime. The question is whether the United States has the right to go and launch a war against anybody, anywhere, because we don't like them.

[Al Franken]

Peter, do you have this clip? This is Trump talking to the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian military, telling them that they'll get immunity if they ask for it. Do you have that?

[Paul Rykoff]

I once again urge the Revolutionary Guard,

[David Rothkoff]

the Iranian military police, to lay down your arms and receive full immunity or face certain death. It will be certain death.

[Al Franken]

Okay, so how, how does that get enforced? I mean, how? You know you get complete immunity even if you personally shot and killed a hundred people?

[Paul Rykoff]

I think there was more to the clip, Al. I think at the end he said you also get a job at ice. You know, Ken Burns has been on my show a few times and he always says history doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. And a lot of this rhymes very loudly with where we've been before. And I think the thing I want to start with is it's so much worse than before. It's also much worse than before because of all the pieces. But I think most of all, what I always want to focus on is that Donald Trump can do anything he wants with the most powerful military the world has ever seen, and nothing is stopping him. You asked how many countries? It's nine. And I have them. Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, someplace in the Caribbean. We don't know exactly where because they haven't told us. Remember the whole war crimes and September 2nd video that we never get to? Syria, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran again. And he hit Ecuador. Those are military operations in each of those countries.

[David Rothkoff]

Right?

[Paul Rykoff]

And now, and now Ecuador. Does anyone in America realize that he conducted military operations against so called narco terrorists in Ecuador the other night? Right. And here's what I think is really important now. He is all gas, no brakes. He is going as fast and as far as possible and nothing's even slowing him down. And he's probably going to Cuba next. So I think the real seminal question here is can anything even slow down the rampaging authoritarian president that we've got? Because our systems aren't built to do it. And he's just going so fast, challenging everyone to try to catch him and they can't even keep up with where he is. I said this on my show. The Congress is like the mall cops of our democracy right now. Like, they can't even write tickets. They can't arrest anybody. They can't do anything. They just sit there and whine and complain. And I know the Republicans are obviously in charge, but the Democrats don't have a strategy either. And the real question we should have for all Americans are how far is he gonna go? Because this is a forever war now. It is a regional war. He said he wants to hit other places like Mexico. And you should believe him. He says he wants to invoke the Insurrection Act. You should believe him. And the thing I want to really highlight, Al, because, you know, I know a lot of folks support you from your time in the Senate. There are a lot of Democrats, I hope Republicans and independents listening. You know, there is the midterm elections is not enough of a circuit breaker. You can't wait until the midterm elections because he can invade five more countries by then, right? Think about what he's done just in the last two months. So there has to be a strategy to do something, whether it's revoke the funding at DoD like they have with DHS, somebody launched a campaign to impeach him. You know, come up with something other than just going on MSNBC saying we're very upset and we're very angry because this is not working for America.

[Al Franken]

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[Al Franken]

And we're back with David Rothkoff and Paul Rykoff. This isn't popular. I mean we have like 23% support for for this war, right? Something like that. Is he just daring the American people to vote the Democrats in in the majority and may definitely the House and very possibly the Senate?

[Paul Rykoff]

I think there is a stunning failure of imagination in this country and Trump has no failure of imagination. People assume he cares about Polls. He is going as far and as fast as he can against, I think, until his own personal time runs out, until he dies. He knows that he won't live forever. He knows JD Vance isn't going to be up for it. And Pete Hegseth isn't. Imagine how far ahead he'd be if Hegseth and Gnome weren't fucking up all the time. Imagine if he had really competent people. Right. But he.

[Al Franken]

Well, he. There's a trade off.

[Paul Rykoff]

Yeah, but I do think it had

[Al Franken]

some competent people in the first term.

[Paul Rykoff]

But they are also, they are also on plan. Right? They are on plan and ahead of plan. And that's really important, I think, especially for Democrats to appreciate and understand. Everybody who talked about Project 2025, Project 2025 is basically complete. That was year one, Project 2025. Year one was America. Project 2026 is North America. And Project 2027 might be the Middle east, it might be South America. He is continuing to go.

[Al Franken]

It seems like the Middle east is 26, actually.

[Paul Rykoff]

Yeah, yeah. And maybe more. I mean, I think, like to your point about, you know, this, you know, you've been watching Iran. Yeah, we've been watching this story for 20 years. And the really important point is the lid is off now. And so, you know, Iran is now striking multiple countries. The Strait of Hormuz is shut down. Israel is now being blasted. And I think we have to brace for a new normal like we did after 9, 11, where nobody's really safe anymore. This is the piercing of the great American bubble. Right. We are not safe anymore overseas. Our diplomats are not safe, our allies are not safe. Dubai is not safe. And I think it's only a matter of time before the Middle east looks like Ukraine and Kiev and it's just going to keep moving to the West. So there's a point where we could have shahed drones hitting US cities. That is a legitimate threat that we should be mentally and strategically and defensively preparing for. But I think use that as an example. There's a stunning failure of imagination in this country to appreciate the drone warfare is not just the future, it is the present. That is what war looks like now. It is the new terrorist attack. It is the new roadside bomb. And if you want to see what it looks like, look at Kyiv.

[David Rothkoff]

If I could interject here, all those points are good points and there are certainly things we should be concerned about. I'm a little bit concerned about the idea of promoting the idea that we're entering a new era of danger for the United States, although I think in many respects we are. And the reason is that what Trump is looking for as his ticket, to be there as long as he wants, is an emergency. And he is trying to find ways. And that's why Tulsi Gabbard is out there saying foreigners are meddling in the elections, and that's why they're putting troops in the cities, and that's why they're doing some of the things that they're doing. They're trying to find an excuse to delay elections, postpone elections, and so forth. And again today, even as this war is going on, moments before we got started to record this, Trump posted on Truth Social. The most important thing that Congress can do is pass the SAVE Act. This is the thing that will determine whether or not we have a future in America. And of course, everybody knows is listening to this, that the SAVE act is the most extreme voter suppression act promoted in the United States in the modern era. And the entire purpose of it is to give Republicans an advantage, not let the Democrats take back these elections. And if you combine that with, you know, having, you know, Stephen Miller, who's referred to as the prime minister in the White House, determining that we're in an emergency and we have to send troops out and do all these emergency things in the election, are we going to have elections? Are they going to be free and fair? Seems super unlikely to me. And so I totally endorse what Paul is saying.

[Paul Rykoff]

I'm not promoting this idea. I am explaining that this is the plan. Right. And both things can be true. We can face increased danger, and Trump can be using that as a tool. And I think that Trump is creating much of this danger, and it is a very real danger. Now the question becomes when? There is, for example, a shooting in Austin this weekend that was allegedly politically motivated, if there are, for example, attacks on national guard troops in D.C. when two were shot in the head, they are real. But he can also use them. And I think that is the plan we need to make Americans aware of, is that he wants to flex his authoritarian muscle. This is the plan. A foreign war that creates a national emergency that allows him to increase the hammer on the American people and stop the elections. That is the plan. And I think more Americans need to be aware of it. It's not accidental. And I think too often they dismiss him as crazy or they dismiss him as deranged. Stephen Miller is a diabolically evil person, in my view. But he's on plan. He's getting what he wants. And I think the Department of Defense especially is the area we need to focus on. Because Pete Hegseth is not just the so called Secretary of War, he is what I call the acting Secretary of Culture War. He is waging culture war in the Pentagon and then turning the Pentagon to be the instrument of the culture war in America and around the world on everything from banning books to attacking Harvard to removing rights to women. So if you wanna see what the future of America could look like, it is the entire federal government looking like the Department of Defense run by Pete Hecseff.

[Al Franken]

Let's talk about the war and about how long this thing is gonna go on. I do think that the American people are gonna be really fed up with this. Very quickly he's talked about putting boots on the ground, right?

[Paul Rykoff]

Openly. Openly. They are now. They're not even dismissing it. And important to note too, Al, like we have intelligence assets on the ground. And when we say boots on the ground, it's almost like an antiquated term. We had boots on the ground in Venezuela, we have boots on the ground in Ecuador. And this is part of the problem, is you don't have an administration that is candid about anything from boots on the ground to casualty numbers. Last night they released the sixth casualty. Okay, but they kind of released it. They said they weren't sure of the man, if it was him or not, because the person, frankly, was blown apart. So they issued this sloppy press release about the sixth American casualty. They couldn't even get that right.

[Al Franken]

Did his family get the family heard?

[Paul Rykoff]

This is how the family got the notification is we're not sure it was him. They put his name out there. They didn't identify his picture. But the point is there is no transparency and they have removed the Pentagon press corps. They haven't been doing regular press briefings until recently. I think you're right. It is extremely unpopular and it will get less popular, but he doesn't care. Now the question is, will Republicans move?

[David Rothkoff]

Well, apropos for your point, though, just to go back to your point, the price of Gasoline went up 22 cents in the first three days of this thing. It's going to continue to go up more. There is pressure there. You know, this, this thing is not going to go on in its current form if the administration can control it. And there's some question about that for more than a few weeks, because if it does, it makes the Republicans terrible numbers for the midterms look worse. And so Trump's going to start getting people calling him, saying, hey, buddy, let's change the subject. Because once you start a war, other people are able to author its next steps.

[Al Franken]

Do you think Trump bails or you think he doubles down? You think he bails?

[David Rothkoff]

No, no, no. Look, I mean, there's a reason he's called Taco Trump, right? And he always chickens out. He tries to tie a ribbon on it. He has no stomach for this protracted war. But what's more, his base is abandoning him. Radio talk show hosts from, you know, Joe Rogan to Glenn Beck are abandoning him. And there's an election this year, and so his timing couldn't be worse because, you know, war like this pushes up prices, pushes up oil prices.

[Al Franken]

Of course the oil prices are going up because of Hormuz and.

[David Rothkoff]

Right, right, exactly.

[Al Franken]

And people want, you know, this is what people want. Are prices down.

[David Rothkoff]

Yeah. He said something else today, by the way, which I just gotta flag it for you because it is so. It was so choice about this. He was asked about the son of Khomeini who looks like the apparent successor to his father, the Supreme Leader. And Trump said, well, I don't like him, he's a lightweight. And I would like to have a hand in choosing whoever replaces him as the leader of Iran. Really, if there was ever a moment like the hardliners in Iran and the pro democracy forces in Iran can't stand each other, they're at a war, thousands have died. Right. But if there is one issue on which they agree, it's they don't want Donald Trump to choose the next leader of Iran. And yet he has no filter.

[Al Franken]

So is that Trump's way of saying that the next leader of Iran will be the Ayatollah? I mean, in other words, that's next. The leader of Iran is not going to be a civilian. I mean, he's given up on that. It sounds like.

[David Rothkoff]

Well, I just. I mean, Trump likes authoritarians, right? He likes regimes where you get to pick the people and it just happens and there's no voting. You don't see a lot of talk about democracy here. Venezuela is the perfect example where supposedly we were doing regime change. We went in at considerable risk, arrested Maduro, brought him to the US Illegal. It was all illegal. And then his number two takes over and Trump's like, yeah, okay, that's fine, we'll stick with this regime. It's crazy, but it's because all he wants to do is leave his imprint. He's like, he's walking through the woods and he wants to carve his initials on as many trees as he can

[Al Franken]

this idea that he's kind of an egomaniac, which, I mean, that's an understatement. Of course. I saw this thing where he gave a speech at the White House and he's honoring Medal of Honor winners. Okay. And for some reason, he, while supposedly honoring them, just starts talking about how beautiful his ballroom is going to be.

[David Rothkoff]

And it will be. It'll be spectacular. Be the most beautiful ballroom. I believe it's because I built many a ballroom. I believe it's going to be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world. Well, that's. That's what those guys fought and sacrificed and their buddies died for, I'm sure.

[Al Franken]

Yes.

[David Rothkoff]

You know, but, you know, he did this. You remember there was a meeting a couple of weeks ago, and it was with a bunch of CEOs or something, and he stood up in the middle of the meeting and he walked to the window, dropped the subject, stared out at the ballroom and started talking about the ballroom again. And, you know, I go back to your point, because I think it's such a good point. You know, he may not be a complete idiot, but he is going through some kind of mental breakdown in front of our very eyes. And he is not what either of us would call compos mentis at this moment. He's detached from reality.

[Al Franken]

He announced the war. Did seem strange to you how he announced the war, that he went on Truce Social

[David Rothkoff]

at 2 in the morning. Yeah, right.

[Al Franken]

He's kind of. You're right. I think he's kind of losing it. We talk about this if there are casualties, that he'll declare victory and leave, how far into the future this is? I mean, I think. Did he first set four weeks as this, or.

[David Rothkoff]

It's hard to say. It's hard to say. At first they said a few days, then they said a couple of weeks, then they said five to six weeks. And now there's reports coming out of the Pentagon that they're planning on fighting through September. Now, I don't know what their calculus is there, maybe. Oh, well, we'll end the war before the election and it'll look like we're peacemakers again. I mean, that doesn't seem like that's going to fly. It's costing. We're also realizing this. It's costing a billion dollars a day in its current form. If you send lots more troops in, it's going to cost a lot more than that.

[Al Franken]

And if the war expands in, which it may very well do.

[David Rothkoff]

That's right. Well, it seems likely to do. And I thought originally that what he was doing was moving military into the area in order to get leverage, in order to get a deal, it wouldn't be as good as the Obama 2015 nuclear deal, but it would be the Trump deal. And that's sort of a pattern he follows. But then the Iranians decided, no, we're not going to do that. And they responded again today also in an interesting way. They said, no, we're not negotiating. We're not reaching out to him. If you want to fight a war, we're ready to fight a war. And I think that's because they realize that we don't have the political will in the United States to back that for good reason. But I think they see a prolonged war as actually playing to their advantage.

[Al Franken]

So if we put troops, actual troops on the ground, if we start having troops get killed there, and we already have had lost six service members in Kuwait, and that's them bombing our base there, if we have a lot of troops there, are the American people going to abide that?

[David Rothkoff]

I don't think so, because I think there will be a lot of casualties if we have a lot of troops there. There will be even more casualties if we have a lot of troops there. Without a clear plan, a clear exit, clear goals and metrics for being there. And to have all those things, you need actually a planning process which we don't have. And that's how you get into forever wars. I would add that just now we saw a kind of ugly underside to all of this, where four of the troops to which you just referred, the bodies of four, were flown back to the United States. Typically, when that kind of thing happens, the president or the Secretary of defense are there to receive the bodies. Neither Trump nor Hegseth were there. You know, they. Neither one of them showed them the respect that they were due. And it's pretty disgusting. And we go back, you remember Mark Milley commenting or others commenting that Trump viewed soldiers that die in battle as losers, suckers.

[Al Franken]

Losers and suckers. I think it was his chief of staff, right?

[David Rothkoff]

That's right. It was General Kelly.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. And who lost his son. I mean, he says this to a father who lost his son in battle.

[David Rothkoff]

Yeah. I mean, it doesn't really get more repugnant than that unless Kelly actually happens to overhear it at a ceremony marking D Day. I mean, it was even worse, right? It was even worse than that. And Trump is. His attitudes towards the dead and wounded are pretty awful. What we have going on here is not a war of choice or a war of whim. It's the product of a diseased mind. It's a product of somebody who's trying to cover up his problems at home, express his manhood to the world, you know, push death to the, you know, away from. I mean, there's so many things going on, but they're not the result of consultation with Congress, consultation with generals, consultation with advisors. It's all going on, you know, in the head of Donald Trump as he lies awake at night staring at the ceiling. Drew McIntyre here from WWE. Wielding the Claymore can be a life of chaos, but I'm not dominating in the ring. Chumba Can Casino is how this warrior takes a wee break. With hundreds of online social games and new weekly releases, there's always something fresh

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[Al Franken]

I got some polling number on the war and I think I mentioned this at 23% in favor of the war. Is that going to end the war quicker? Is that going to end the war sooner? How about weighing in on on where this war is going to go? I mean, we don't know.

[David Rothkoff]

No. Look, first of all we have to begin with, we don't know. We also have to explore the possibilities of unintended consequences. Those include spreading in ways we don't expect. We're sending in the Kurds in northern Iraq ostensibly to distract the Iranian army. Of course, Kurds pose other issues for the Turks and for the Syrians, for the Iraqis, and could trigger spreading of the war. Clearly, the message of this war is we wouldn't have attacked Iran if they had nuclear weapons. And so you do have this, this escalation of nuclear arms race. Whether it's Poland or whether it's Scandinavia or whether it's Korea or whether it's Japan, lots of other countries are saying that they want to get into that game. That's a problem. You've got the possibility with the number of missiles that are hitting the GCC and other Arab states that they're going to get in in a much bigger way and that that is going to spread and expand this conflict. If the Iranians have their big military weapons taken away from them, they have to go to terrorism as a mechanism for extending their power and disrupting. And they're good at that. And yeah, they're the leading state sponsor of terror for 20 years in a row, 30 years in a row. But I would add that if we think that somehow, as Trump naively did, that we're gonna go in, blow up some bases, blow up some missile plants and that the people are gonna take to the streets and we are gonna be greeted as liberators. I think he needs to have a conversation with Condi Rice, who thought that was gonna happen in Baghdad. What is much more likely, since there are these big institutions, is that the hard right is going to gain some momentum with a lot of the country. And we've seen that because Khamenei, who you expressed that you love his son, you should be happy to hear, is likely to replace him. And the IRGC is getting stronger. And so I think we should expect intense resistance from all or a chunk of Iranians for a long time to come. There are a lot of Iranians who still believe in the revolution and they are not going to be defeated unless there's a substantial number of boots on the ground for a substantial period of time. And all I can say is you can bomb Iran for the next year and they will still be more powerful than the Taliban was. And we were engaged in a war for 20 years in Afghanistan. So, you know, the likelihood that this is open ended, messy and produces unintended consequences is super high. But Having said that, Donald Trump is a liar and he will try to put a bow on it and say it was a huge success. He said it was a 15 out of 10. You know, so he is likely to go out there and say it's a success because he's going to be under huge pressure to change the subject. Now, I agree with Paul on the question, where will he go next? Because he will go to Cuba. I mean, write that down. We will have some kind of intervention in Cuba. Will he go to Panama? Will he go to Greenland? Will he go to some other place?

[Al Franken]

Will that be easy? Will that be easy?

[Paul Rykoff]

Can I give you an example of how that becomes easy? Shahed drones can fly dozens of miles. If he says there are shahed drones in Cuba, that could hit Miami, which cause shahed drones are now hitting the entire region. That will be the emerging threat. Over the next couple of weeks, you will see cheap, 40, $50,000 drones that can be spread all over the region and potentially all over the world. That will be the new threat. That will be the new suicide bomber. That will be what they scare the world with, because it is a legitimate threat, but it can be manipulated. I think, to answer your question, Al, in a very important way, we are not in charge of this right now. We think that America can still control these events. We are not respected, we are not trusted, and we are not in control. And every enemy gets a vote and every ally gets a vote. So I think the idea that we can even control what happens next is grounded in the past and grounded in a world where people used to respect America.

[Al Franken]

How much of that is Trump?

[Paul Rykoff]

Most of it. Most of it. But to use as an example, right, if the Saudis feel a threat, they can act. If the Israelis feel a threat, they can act. If Poland feels a threat from Russia, they can act. We don't control these countries anymore, and we don't have authority. We have influence and we can threaten them. But, you know, Poland is on the line between Russia's advance and America's hung them out to dry. So why should Poland wait for America? Nobody's waiting for America anymore. And that might be the understory here, that Trump may not fully say, which is Israel might have been going anyway. Israel might have said, we're going anyway. And do you want to come along for the ride or not? And Trump thinks it's an easy win. So he says, sure, let's jump on board and keep everything rolling after Venezuela. But the most central thing to remember, especially now, is what we have done is blown the top off of it, and now everything is spilling out everywhere and we can't control all of it.

[David Rothkoff]

I would say, by the way, though, Al, in response to your point about how much is Trump, we have not seen a world since Hitler blew his brains out in the bunker in which the diseased mind of a single individual has played a bigger role in driving global affairs. Donald Trump is playing a huge role in not just the Middle east, but clearly in Ukraine and blowing up NATO in changing the, the strategic equation for the Chinese. And watch this space. There's a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of this month, and Trump is going to seek the warm embrace of Xi Jinping. He does not want a conflict there. If I were in Taiwan, I would be extremely nervous about what's going to happen next there, because I think, you know, the kind of wink and a nod. Go ahead. Is not out of the question. But the point behind this is Trump doesn't have advisors that he listens to. The Congress doesn't control Trump. Trump doesn't care about polls, I think, because Trump knows he's, he's the lamest of lame duck. He's dying and he's a narcissist. And as far as he's concerned, once he's dead, the world doesn't exist anymore. And so, you know, Trump is, is. It's, it's the first time that we have seen the resources of the United States, a commander in chief who's acting like a king instead of a president.

[Paul Rykoff]

And it's also the first time we don't have our friends. More than half of the people of Denmark think that we're an adversary. The Canadians are furious. We do not have allies.

[Al Franken]

So you don't think we can get, that we can get Denmark involved in, in this Iran thing?

[Paul Rykoff]

No, not unless Denmark starts getting hit. Right. I mean, that's a great example. Like, you know, they, they are going to support their NATO allies, but, but right now, they are still legitimately concerned. They haven't forgotten about Greenland. I have so many Danish friends, especially veterans that I've heard from that are still forever deeply wounded and will never come back to support America. Because of what he said about Danish soldiers, about dead Danish, and that's.

[Al Franken]

They had a higher, didn't they have a higher percentage of casualties than, than

[Paul Rykoff]

we did and per capita. Absolutely. I mean, they fought alongside guys like me in Iraq. But I think it's important because we are becoming more and more isolated. I think David's points are exactly right. The global order is not built for a renegade president, but it's also not going to tolerate it. Right? So, yeah, France is going to jump in on Iran because they see an opportunity or they see a threat, but they're not going to jump in on Cuba and they're not going to jump in on Ecuador. And we are so isolated. And the way we feel about Trump is probably not even as intense as the rest of the world feels. So we have to remember he's our delegate to the world and nobody likes him. We pissed off everybody. So how'd you like to be in a global or regional war when nobody likes you? That's the reality of what we've got right now. And China is the big winner, too. We should underscore that. I don't know if China, if I were China, I would just sit back and wait and say, hey, you know what? America, punch yourself out. Russia, punch yourself out. Because the big winner right now is China. And they have a multi hundred year strategy. They are just waiting and building and watching everybody else punch themselves out. And people like pray to God for Dan Cain, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who's the new General Milley. The institutions may not hold, but our leaders and our values can hold, especially locally.

[Al Franken]

Now, Cain, like Kane was saying that we're going to run out of ammo, right? I mean, that he. Do we have the, the missiles to do this?

[Paul Rykoff]

Not forever, no. You know, I mean, and that's the important point is he's underscoring tomorrow they're meeting with defense to talk about replenishing supplies that would have been a good idea to do a month ago or two months ago. Now they're talking about how to get Americans out of harm's way.

[Al Franken]

Do you get the sense that there wasn't a lot of planning for this operation?

[David Rothkoff]

I'm sorry, come on, it's all Trump.

[Paul Rykoff]

I think it's. Here's the thing, it's not just that they don't plan, they don't care about that. They're going so full speed. And he is outrunning everything, including his own advisors. So everybody is the dog chasing the runaway drunken car that is Donald Trump. He doesn't care about American casualties. We know that. He doesn't care that we're spending $1 billion. He wants to sit down with Xi and say, I'm a big tough guy, you're a big tough guy. Let's divide the world. It's all about his power.

[Al Franken]

Is there any sense at all that this was a Distraction from Epstein. Any sense at all, or.

[David Rothkoff]

Are you kidding? Serious? You're joking, right? No, of course it was a distraction for me.

[Al Franken]

Okay?

[Paul Rykoff]

I mean.

[David Rothkoff]

I mean, this was as wag the dog as wag the dog gets. And the reality is, it has been a pretty ineffective distraction. You know, Epstein is going to remain front and center.

[Al Franken]

I mean, because he has a pretty serious charge against him that we don't know if it's true or not. And. But, you know, there are 3 million documents out there that. And unless they turn in every one of them, if they don't turn in one document, you know, that document's bad.

[Paul Rykoff]

I actually have a different view on this, Al, and I think it's repeated too often. Everything is viewed as a distraction from Epstein. And what I would tell you is Epstein is friction for everything he wants to do. Like he wants to rule the world. He's grew from despicable me. He wants the moon. He wants to put it in his pocket. And Epstein is one of the things that will slow him down from getting it. But it's not always a distraction from Epstein. Everything he does and everything, like a lot of it is a power grab, and Epstein is slowing him down. And I think we have to kind of decouple the two. Epstein is incredibly important in holding him accountable. Maybe that's what will get Republicans to move. Maybe that's what will get him impeached and ultimately stopped. But everything he does is not necessarily a distraction from Epstein any more than public accountability or polls. And they're all friction that are slowing him down from going as far and as fast as he can.

[Al Franken]

David, any last words?

[David Rothkoff]

No?

[Al Franken]

Okay, that's one word. All right, you guys. Thank you.

[Paul Rykoff]

Thank you, Al. Thank you, David. Thank you, everyone, for listening. Keep the faith.

[Al Franken]

Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Cocky, the great Leo Konki. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.

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