Catherine Rampell on Trump’s Economic Policies

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Al Franken Podcast — "Catherine Rampell on Trump’s Economic Policies"

Release Date: July 20, 2025

In this insightful episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken engages in a compelling discussion with Kathryn Rampell, a distinguished opinion columnist for The Washington Post and co-host of MSNBC's weekend primetime show. Together, they delve into the intricate landscape of former President Donald Trump's economic policies, examining their impacts on various facets of American society. The conversation is rich with analysis, backed by Rampell's expertise in economics and public policy.

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Introduction to the Episode

Al Franken begins by setting the stage, highlighting the crowded booth with notable guests such as Catherine Rampell discussing public policy and political comedy. He briefly touches upon Trump's recent foreign policy moves, including arming Ukraine and bombing Iran, and introduces the contentious topic of Trump's alleged connections to the Epstein files.

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Trump and the Epstein Files Controversy [02:31 – 03:21]

Franken broaches the sensitive subject of whether Donald Trump is named in the Epstein files. While Peter Ogburn expresses skepticism about the release of these files, suggesting, "I don't think we will ever know" ([02:38]), the conversation underscores the ongoing suspicion and lack of transparency surrounding the matter. This segment sets a tone of accountability and the challenges in uncovering truths in political arenas.

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Public Broadcasting Funding Cuts [04:44 – 07:38]

Rampell discusses the impending rescission package before the Senate aimed at eliminating funding for public broadcasting entities like PBS and NPR. She explains that this package also includes significant cuts to foreign aid, specifically the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which she lauds as a "phenomenally successful" initiative.

Kathryn Rampell [05:00]: "The package would also include cuts for foreign aid for pepfar... it's like what do you count as costing money or saving money or whatever."

The conversation highlights the bipartisan neglect of Congressional appropriations, emphasizing that fiscal decisions are increasingly influenced by presidential preferences rather than legislative intent. Franken inquires about the possibility of stopping these cuts, to which Rampell responds with skepticism about overcoming the Republican majority, noting:

Kathryn Rampell [06:35]: "They need four [votes]. There have been a few senators who have grumbled about it... but they just have no agency whatsoever."

This segment underscores the diminishing legislative autonomy and the centralization of fiscal control, raising concerns about the future of public services and international aid.

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Economic Implications of the Big Beautiful Bill [08:03 – 12:43]

Rampell shifts the focus to the recent extension of the 2017 tax cuts, often referred to as the "big, beautiful bill." She clarifies a common misconception:

Kathryn Rampell [08:24]: "There is this misconception that only the rich got tax cuts. In reality, almost everyone got tax cuts."

Despite broad-based tax reductions, Rampell points out that the wealthiest beneficiaries have seen the most significant advantages. The extension of these tax cuts is criticized for exacerbating the national deficit, with Rampell likening Republican justifications to "accounting BS":

Kathryn Rampell [09:59]: "It's like saying when your car lease ends, the next car is free essentially."

Franken probes the parliamentary process, questioning adherence to the Byrd Rule during the bill's passage. Rampell exposes procedural bypasses by Republicans to push the bill through via reconciliation, disregarding Senate rules designed to prevent deficit-increasing legislation.

Kathryn Rampell [11:14]: "They have a bunch of, well, you know better than I do because you actually dealt with this."

This section critically examines the legislative maneuvers that allowed the extension of tax cuts despite their substantial cost, highlighting systemic issues in policy-making processes.

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Impact on Health Care and Rural Hospitals [12:43 – 17:45]

Franken and Rampell delve into the catastrophic effects of the bill on health care, particularly focusing on the estimated loss of insurance for 12 million people, which could swell to 17 million when accounting for additional measures like the cessation of Obamacare tax credits.

Kathryn Rampell [13:26]: "The whole agenda will leave about 17 million people without 17 million more people without health insurance as a result."

Rampell articulates the dire consequences for rural hospitals, which heavily rely on Medicaid and serve as major local employers. The anticipated loss of insurance coverage is projected to lead to increased emergency room visits and financial strain on already struggling facilities.

Kathryn Rampell [14:19]: "They are going to lose a lot of patients' ability to pay... access to healthcare."

Franken shares personal anecdotes from his time as a senator, recalling the anxiety among rural communities over potential hospital closures due to similar health care cuts in the past.

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National Debt and Economic Sustainability [17:45 – 27:14]

The dialogue shifts to the broader economic implications, particularly the burgeoning national debt. Rampell highlights that the current trajectory projects the U.S. debt to reach an estimated $1.8 trillion annually in interest payments within a decade.

Kathryn Rampell [20:05]: "The interest is getting bigger and bigger and big, and it sort of feeds on itself."

Franken questions the sustainability of this debt, expressing concern for future generations:

Al Franken [25:22]: "And is this sustainable? Is the question. And I'm beginning to... worry about my grandchildren."

Rampell explains the factors contributing to the debt surge, including pandemic expenditures, tax cuts, and demographic shifts such as an aging population. She warns of the potential consequences if investor confidence wanes, possibly leading to a diminished status of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.

Kathryn Rampell [27:10]: "At some point, people are going to stop trusting us. Right. And stop lending us money."

This segment offers a sobering analysis of fiscal policies undermining long-term economic stability, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable financial strategies.

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Immigration Policies and Economic Impact [27:35 – 34:40]

Rampell passionately advocates for pro-immigration policies, debunking misconceptions and highlighting public support:

Kathryn Rampell [28:22]: "79% of Americans believe that immigration is good for America."

She critiques the Trump administration's aggressive deportation strategies, which disproportionately target non-criminal immigrants who contribute significantly to the economy. Rampell underscores the irony in deporting individuals who arrived legally, emphasizing the detrimental effects on industries reliant on immigrant labor.

Riley Herbst [30:21]: "They are going after the low hanging fruit... people who are much, or for that matter, people who are showing up to their immigration court appointments because they are following the law."

This discussion reveals the conflict between national security rhetoric and the practical economic necessities of immigration, showcasing the human and economic costs of restrictive policies.

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Tariffs and Inflation [34:40 – 41:36]

The conversation transitions to Trump's tariff policies, dissecting their real economic impact versus the administration's narrative of revenue generation. Rampell explains that tariffs, while generating some revenue, predominantly burden American consumers, especially those with lower incomes who spend a larger proportion of their earnings on imported goods.

Kathryn Rampell [37:01]: "They are disproportionately borne by the poor."

Franken challenges the efficacy of Trump's claim that tariffs bolster the economy by "bringing money in," to which Rampell responds by highlighting the hidden costs, such as increased prices for everyday items like tomatoes and steel, leading to broader inflationary pressures.

Kathryn Rampell [38:13]: "So, for example, the Trump administration announced this week that it is tariffing tomatoes from Mexico... so probably tomato prices are going to go up as a result of this."

This segment critically assesses the short-sightedness of protectionist trade measures, emphasizing their adverse effects on consumer prices and the overall economy.

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Conclusion and Final Remarks [41:36 – 43:08]

As the episode wraps up, Franken congratulates Rampell on her impending motherhood, interspersed with lighthearted banter that underscores the personal rapport between host and guest. The discussion concludes with a reminder of the interconnectedness of economic policies and their far-reaching consequences on both macroeconomic stability and individual lives.

Al Franken [41:57]: "Okay. Well, congratulations."

This closing highlight serves as a personal touch, reinforcing the human element amidst complex policy discussions.

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Notable Quotes

• Kathryn Rampell [05:31]: "They have some of these offsets or savings up front, but not nearly enough to fill the huge hole that they are blowing in revenues by cutting taxes."

• Al Franken [18:00]: "He said that so many times. I don't remember it specifically that citation."

• Kathryn Rampell [23:19]: "We just don't know when. You know, there's that famous line from James Carville in the 90s... 'the bond market can really punish you if they don't think that you're taking your debt seriously.'"

• Riley Herbst [35:57]: "We are effectively de-documenting a lot of immigrants... turning legal ones into illegal ones."

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Key Takeaways

1. Fiscal Responsibility Undermined: The extension of tax cuts without addressing deficits exacerbates the national debt, threatening long-term economic stability.

2. Public Services at Risk: Cuts to public broadcasting and health care endanger essential services and the financial viability of rural hospitals, impacting millions of Americans.

3. Immigration Policies Misaligned with Economic Needs: Restrictive immigration measures undermine industries reliant on immigrant labor, while deportation efforts disproportionately target non-criminal individuals.

4. Tariffs Fuel Inflation: Protective tariffs, touted as economic boosts, primarily increase costs for American consumers, contributing to rising inflation and economic inefficiency.

5. Urgent Need for Sustainable Policies: The episode underscores the pressing necessity for policies that balance economic growth with fiscal responsibility, ensuring the well-being of current and future generations.

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This episode of The Al Franken Podcast offers a thorough examination of Donald Trump's economic policies through the lens of Kathryn Rampell's expertise. It provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of how these policies intersect with broader economic principles and societal impacts, encouraging informed discourse on the sustainability and fairness of current governmental strategies.

Transcript

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[Al Franken]

Hey everybody, we got a great one today. You know, for a change, the brilliant Kathryn Rampel is back. Katherine writes her opinion column for the Washington Post and is now co host of MSNBC's weekend primetime show. And if you're a regular listener to this podcast, you know she always delivers. Well, it seems that Trump has figured out that Putin is not so trustworthy and he's decided to arm Ukraine. This is not too popular with Trump's MAGA base, even though the Europeans are going to pay for it. And of course, they weren't very happy with bombing Iran. Nobody, including the base, seems to like the tariffs. But the MAGA crowd is really upset about Epstein. I mean, I guess they feel Trump's kind of strung them along, you know, nothing to see here. Move on. But they won't move on. Peter.

[Peter Ogburn]

Yeah, Al?

[Al Franken]

Yeah. So what do you think? Is Trump named in the Epstein files?

[Peter Ogburn]

I don't think we will ever know.

[Al Franken]

They'll never release the files.

[Peter Ogburn]

Well, not if he's in them.

[Al Franken]

So you think he's in them?

[Peter Ogburn]

I didn't say that.

[Al Franken]

Well, then he might release them.

[Peter Ogburn]

I think there's a reason that he.

[Al Franken]

Won'T release them, which is that he's in them.

[Peter Ogburn]

Well, look, I just don't think that the official position of the show should be that Trump is definitely, definitely in the Epstein files.

[Al Franken]

Well, that's why I was trying to get you to say it.

[Peter Ogburn]

I just think that the official position of the Al Franken podcast should be that it's awfully suspicious that. That Trump won't release the files.

[Al Franken]

Well, we'll be right back with Kathryn Rampel. It's a great one for a change. You know, I've been watching the show the Primetime Weekend, and I was telling my wife, I think, I think Catherine's pregnant. And I said, I wonder if I can ask her that when she's on the podcast. No, you can't.

[Kathryn Rampell]

I mean, there was a period where it was maybe ambiguous. And I could tell when I saw people that they're wondering, did she just let herself go or is she pregnant? And I would usually just, did she.

[Al Franken]

Just let herself go?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Oh, well, some people, strangers on the Internet, would write me that. So. And I would try to diffuse the conversation by saying, yes, in case you are wondering, I am pregnant. But now if you see me, it should be obvious because I am like spherical.

[Al Franken]

Well, congratulations and have a great labor. It's very painful, by the way. Did you know that?

[Kathryn Rampell]

I've heard.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, yeah. But don't worry about it. Yeah, yeah. If it's incredibly painful, there's nothing wrong. That's what I'm just wanted to reassure you.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Thanks.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. That's my role in life. Now there's a rescission package before the Senate this week.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes.

[Al Franken]

They want to get rid of funding for public broadcasting.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Public broadcasting. So pbs, npr, npr, lots of other public broadcasting stations and organizations that make content for those stations would be on the chopping block. Effectively. The package would also include cuts for foreign aid for pepfar.

[Al Franken]

Pepfar, which is George W. Bush's legacy.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. An anti AIDS program which has been funded, phenomenally successful.

[Al Franken]

And they want to cut funding for that.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes. So to be clear, Trump has basically already tried to cut funding for these things. These are buckets of money that Congress had appropriated funds for. And then Trump tried to cut them unilaterally. And this would be basically asking Congress to give its blessing to those same cuts because a lot of them are being litigated in court. And so if Congress, because the President cannot unilaterally, or at least once upon a time, could not unilaterally decide to just not spend money that Congress had appropriated.

[Al Franken]

And are there three votes or four votes to stop this? You need four, right?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, it's unclear. There have been a few. Senator, it already passed the House. There are a few senators who have grumbled about it. Collins, Collins, Murkowski.

[Al Franken]

The usual suspects.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, the usual suspects. That doesn't mean they won't cave. And again, they need four. You know, there was a lot of grumbling about the one big, beautiful bill as well, about a lot of the heartless cuts in that. And in the end, almost everyone folded and it was able to go through.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. Murkowski kind of folded and said, I hope the House changes.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. Everybody. Somehow our federal lawmakers no longer have any agency, and they're just forced to cast these votes that align with Trump's preferences, and they have no way around that. They hate doing it, but they just have no agency whatsoever. It doesn't matter that they were elected to our legislature to decide.

[Al Franken]

Use their judgment.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Use their judgment and decide how to cast their ballots or cast their votes in these very high stakes legislative battles.

[Al Franken]

So, in addition to being pregnant and about ready to pop and doing the weekend show, and you write your columns, and I've been reading your columns. They're mainly on economics, and I wanted to discuss economics with you on three issues. The big, beautiful bill, immigration and tariffs.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Sure.

[Al Franken]

And their effect on things. One big, big, beautiful bill, of course, is now signed into law in broad outlines that extends the 2017 tax cuts, which cut taxes mainly for higher. Well, for almost all Americans. Right.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes. So there is this misconception that only the rich got tax cuts. In reality, almost everyone got tax cuts. It's just that the biggest benefits went to the very wealthy.

[Al Franken]

These tax cuts are gonna cost the big, beautiful bill. The cost of it is what, $3.8 trillion?

[Kathryn Rampell]

I forget where it landed, but, yes, somewhere in the trillions. Yes, it's very, very expensive. And the whole reason why these tax cuts were expiring in the first place, of course, is that it was already expensive to have them in place for a few years. If you extend them, that costs even more. And so Republicans tried to hide the total cost to the deficit by saying, okay, they're just going to sunset, sunset in 10 years.

[Al Franken]

And then 10 years has come. Now they're doing again for 10 years.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, well, actually, less than 10 years has come, but, yeah, they made the corporate tax cuts in 2017 permanent. They made the individual side tax cuts temporary with the hope that they would get extended. And then they did get extended. And now, because reality and math no longer matter, Republicans actually claimed, no, this doesn't cost anything because the tax cuts are already in place.

[Al Franken]

Well, that's complete bullshit, right?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, it's complete bullshit. It's like saying when your car lease ends, the next car is free essentially.

[Al Franken]

Right. Because you're not paying anymore.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right. It's like, oh, I got used to paying for it before. I don't need to make room in the budget tomorrow. Even if I've already allocated my budget for, for tomorrow. It doesn't matter, it's free. So it was like it's a bunch of accounting BS to try to hide the cost of what they were doing. And of course they will claim that no matter what tax cuts pay for themselves, which is not the case. So why do they even need to go through this hassle?

[Al Franken]

Where was the parliamentarian in all of this?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Sidelined. The parliamentarian, for those who are listening, is someone who is basically there to say are lawmakers abiding by the rules they've set up for themselves? So does this bill cost more or less than they've said it would? And then does it comply with Senate rules?

[Al Franken]

The Byrd rule, for example, says that when you do this, this is done under where you only needed 51 votes.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right. Which is. So they use this special process to get the bill through where they don't need any Democrats, but if they use that process, which they did, it's reconciliation.

[Al Franken]

Right?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right. They have a bunch of, well, you know better than I do because you actually dealt with this.

[Al Franken]

But, and under reconciliation, the Byrd rule was that you had to have a balance but not increase the deficit.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Well, you could increase it by only a certain amount. And then you, there are a bunch of things you can't do. You can't, like you can only do budget related stuff. You couldn't do things not related to the budget. There are a bunch of constraints. In theory, if you are doing reconciliation, which they wanted to do so that they could cut out Democrats and then they didn't abide by those rules at all.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Kathryn Rampell]

And in fact, a few days before the bill passed, they were hiding from, from the Senate parliamentarian, like Democrats submitted some provisions to her saying, can you please check to see if this complies with reconciliation rules, if it complies with the Byrd rule, et cetera. And Republicans were hiding from her because they did not want to have a meeting and find out what her decision was because they knew what her decision was going to be.

[Al Franken]

Well, it's hard to hide from her. She's right out there on the floor. I mean, okay.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Oh well, well. Always a great sign when the response to do you want to know how much this thing costs? Is la la la la la. I can't hear you. Sorry. Which is basically what they did. So they, they essentially ignored all of the rules. They, they shoved the thing through and now it's law.

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[Al Franken]

So partly to narrow the amount that it's going to create deficit. They're taking health care away from how many? As many as. I see different numbers on this.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. So the bill itself is estimated to take away health insurance from about 12 million people. And then if you include some other measures that are part of the Republican agenda, like they chose not to extend some Obamacare tax credits which were expiring anyways, it's again it's like what do you count as costing money or saving money or whatever. Basically the whole agenda will leave about 17 million people without 17 million more people without health insurance as a result.

[Al Franken]

Now what does that do to the economy especially of like areas that have a hospital that's getting by but now 17 million people don't have insurance and like especially rural hospitals.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, this is going to be devastating for rural hospitals because rural hospitals have a higher share of their patients who are on Medicaid. Many of them are barely getting by or really running in the red already. And so they are going to lose a lot of patients ability to pay. I mean I think the most important thing is people are going to lose their access to healthcare.

[Al Franken]

Well in 2017 that when Republicans, when Trump was trying to get rid of the aca, I went around to, I was a senator then and I went to rural hospitals and did town hall meetings and people were so afraid. They were scared and they were angry. They knew that this was going to affect their hospital, maybe close their hospital.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, well, yeah. So if a hospital closes that means that people who live in the area will no longer have reliable access to health care. They may have to drive 50, 60 miles to see a doctor or if they have an emergency, and then the hospital itself is often a major employer.

[Al Franken]

Sure.

[Kathryn Rampell]

That there are a lot of nurses and technicians and doctors and people who work as custodians and all sorts of other, you know, ancillary jobs that are not necessarily necessarily strictly about having a degree in medicine.

[Al Franken]

It's a huge employer in the small area.

[Kathryn Rampell]

It's a huge employer. And so those hospitals are now, they've always had sort of a tenuous financial model, and they've already been closing at relatively high rates before all of this. But the Obamacare, the ACA did give many of them a new lifeline because it meant more.

[Al Franken]

It extended Medicaid to so many more people, millions and millions of people.

[Kathryn Rampell]

And now those people are going to lose health insurance. And then the question is, are they going to have more people who show up in emergencies that they're required to treat by law, who cannot pay, and then they're going to have to eat that cost. The hospitals will have to eat that cost.

[Al Franken]

So people will go into the emergency room if they're not insured, if they're sick, they won't have a doctor, so they'll get sick, and then they have to go to the emergency room, and then they don't have any insurance, so they won't pay that. And that'll drain the hospital's resources.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Exactly. So especially if people, you know, have chronic conditions, let's say they're maybe they're no longer able to get their inhaler, or they're no longer able to reliably, if they're diabetic, to get insulin or otherwise. Just see the providers they would normally see to help manage their chronic conditions. Now they're going to end up more often needing emergency care, which is inefficient, you know, puts them and puts the patients themselves in a worse situation and puts the hospitals in a worse financial situation, and the hospitals cannot absorb those costs indefinitely. So, yeah, I think you're going to see a lot more closures of hospitals, or at least hospitals having to pare back certain functions or services that they have. You've already seen, for example, a lot of hospitals come cut back on their maternity wards or other specialized services that they provide. So even if the whole hospital doesn't close, you might see lots of hospitals.

[Al Franken]

Reducing what they can do.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right, Exactly. Exactly.

[Al Franken]

Now, in his March speech at the joint session, I went back and I remembered this Trump said he was going to balance the budget. Do you remember? This was in his speech.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Oh, he said that so many times. I don't remember it specifically that citation.

[Al Franken]

But yes, this is what he said in his. This is his March speech, which was not a State of the Union speech because it was his first one. And officially that's not a State of the Union speech. He said this in the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years. Balance the federal budget. We are going to balance it.

[Kathryn Rampell]

No, no, we've done the opposite. That was always a pipe dream. It was always a lie. If anything, he has made the numbers much, much worse because as we've been discussing, even though this bill has a lot of cuts to safety net services, among other things, so we talked about Medicaid, there's also cuts to food stamps. There's also getting rid of a lot of the climate subsidies. There are some things that they have, quote, unquote, saved.

[Al Franken]

Well, climate, they're really gutting. I mean.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. So which, you know, if you're just looking at the numbers on a balance sheet, those will save money, at least in the near term. In the long term, I would say they may cost a lot more money if you are disinvesting in children and in the planet and whatever. But let's set that aside. They have some of these offsets or savings up front, but not nearly enough to fill the huge hole that they are blowing in revenues by cutting taxes. So all of that means you're not only being heartless and cruel and taking healthcare away from people and food stamps and whatnot, you are also still increasing deficits to the tune of trillions of dollars.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, 3.8 or something was the score, I guess, from the CBO. Right. Congressional budget.

[Kathryn Rampell]

That's right. Yeah.

[Al Franken]

The attitudes about sustainability of America's debt seems to be changing. The bond market has seemed to take note. Is that right?

[Kathryn Rampell]

One thing that has been surprising to me is that bond markets have not been well.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Okay. The 10 year has been climbing.

[Al Franken]

That's the price, the interest you have to pay on bonds to bondholders.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right. So if you are lending the US government money for 10 years, how much interest do you get in response? And that's usually like a.

[Al Franken]

These are U.S. treasury bonds that you're buying.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes. Yeah. And that's often a good indicator for how risky investors think US Debt is. How likely are we to pay that debt back as a country? What's going to happen to inflation? Like there are a bunch of Things baked into that.

[Al Franken]

Well, how much is our debt now? It's like 36 trillion.

[Kathryn Rampell]

I don't want to misspeak. I don't know. It's a gazillion dollars. It's very.

[Al Franken]

I looked this up. I looked this up because it is 36 trillion and we are scheduled to add another 22 trillion over the next 10 years. And I don't know if that's counting the 3.8 of the big beautiful bill.

[Kathryn Rampell]

One of the ways people gauge this is how does that compare to the size of the overall economy. And even before all of this happened, the debt to GDP ratio was crazy high. Given that the economy is doing well, normally you would expect that we would have a lot of debt relative to the size of the economy when there's a recession or there's a major war or some reason why the government decides, okay, it is worth it to go out and borrow a lot right now. But we'll, you know, we'll get our finances back in order when things get better, when we're out of the war, when we're out of the recession, when.

[Al Franken]

World War II is over.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right.

[Al Franken]

The World War II was, wasn't that the highest amount of debt we've obviously ever had? And good reason. It was World War.

[Kathryn Rampell]

It made, it made sense at the time. You know, there was what was thought to be a one time major expense. It was worth it to go into that debt even though it was a new enormous relative to the size of the economy. But then in subsequent years we wouldn't spend as much and we would get debt back under control.

[Al Franken]

But we've added to our debt tremendously because of the pandemic, because of the.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Pandemic, because of tax cuts, because our country has gotten older, which is why we need immigrants. That is among the reasons why immigration is a useful economic tool, among other things. But yeah, so like more boomers are coming out of the labor force, so they're not paying as many taxes in. They're taking a lot more services out, including Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid for that matter, since a lot of older people rely on Medicaid for long term care. So there are a bunch of reasons why our debt has been growing a lot relative to, to gdp, to the size of the economy. Some of them would have happened anyway because of these demographic things that I was just talking about. But a lot of them are related to choices we have deliberately made to cut taxes, to increase spending and to not worry about tomorrow, not worry about the size of the Deficit.

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[Al Franken]

In a recent column, you wrote that Moody's recently downgraded the credit rating on our debt.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes.

[Al Franken]

And I guess that was in anticipation of the big, beautiful bill that was partly.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. So there are three. Three major credit rating agencies, and the other two had already downgraded us in recent years. Moody's was the one holdout that said no. Like the US still seems like the safest of safe places to put your money. Right. A credit rating is basically about saying, how risky is it to lend this entity money? Part of the reason we've been able to keep borrowing as much as we have, particularly relative to how much we're paying in taxes and the size of the GDP and blah, blah, blah, is that everyone, investors around the world have treated us as unusually safe. Like most countries could not get away with the numbers that we're talking about. Basically, it's just us.

[Al Franken]

Let's look at the numbers we're talking about. You wrote in a column that we're now on schedule to pass the amount we spend on Medicare and Medicaid each year just to finance the debt. It'll be an estimated 1.8 trillion a year in 10 years.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. I mean, because we have so much debt already, we have to pay interest on that debt, and that interest is getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and it sort of feeds on itself.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. And is this sustainable? Is the question. And I'm beginning to. You know, I was never a fiscal hawk, as they say, when I was in the Senate, but I beginning to worry about my grandchildren.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah. And it's one of these things where deficit schools, including myself, look a little bit like the boy who cried wolf, because we've been saying for years this doesn't seem sustainable. At some point, the bond market's going to turn against us and somebody's going to notice and they're not going to be willing to lend us money anymore. And it hasn't happened. But the question is, like, just because it hasn't happened yet. Doesn't mean it won't happen at some point. We just don't know when. You know, there's that famous line from James carville in the 90s, I guess it was about how when he dies, he wants to come back as the bond market because it's the most powerful entity that there is, with the implication being that the bond market can really punish you if they don't think that you're taking your debt seriously. And to date, there have been some, I don't know, some signs of angst in the bond market, but not a true freak out. And so it's really hard to impress upon politicians that this is something they should care about when they've been hearing it for so many years and they haven't done anything and nothing has really happened. That has been super painful. But given that Moody's downgraded us, given that there is some increase in interest rates that we've seen over the past year, let's say given that deficits, you know, have exploded, will continue to explode even more, it does seem like at some point people are going to stop trusting us. Right. And stop lending us money.

[Al Franken]

What does that do to the dollar as the full currency of the world?

[Kathryn Rampell]

It can be painful really quickly. And it's not only the deficit stuff. It's not only one big beautiful bill and the pandemic spending and all of that. It's also a bunch of other things that our political leadership have done to show us to be not super responsible or on the ball.

[Al Franken]

Well, let's talk about immigration and the effect of immigration on this, because are we deporting people that we need in our economy?

[Kathryn Rampell]

Absolutely.

[Al Franken]

Absolutely right.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes, yes. Look, I'm very pro immigration. I've never kept that a secret. There are a bunch of reasons why I think it's important to be a country that is open to immigration, that has policies that are friendly to immigrants, particularly legal immigrants. But I think that there are, anyway, there are arguments to be made for, for those who are undocumented to get on a path to legal, legal status. All of that.

[Al Franken]

79% of Americans believe that immigration is good for America.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah, record high.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, record high.

[Kathryn Rampell]

And actually, if you look, if you dig into those numbers, maybe you already have it in front of you. The reason why we are at a record high is primarily because Republicans have gotten much more pro immigrant since Trump took office. Democrats were always pretty pro immigrant. Republicans were like more divided. And if you look at Gallup's polling, which is what you're citing the biggest shift since they they had previously done this poll is among Republicans. So Republicans also being turned by Trump's anti immigrant policies.

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[Al Franken]

You write in your column that while the number of convicted criminals in ICE detention is now 1.6 times what it was before Trump took office, the number of detainees with zero criminal convictions or charges is up nearly 14 fold. So as far as most Americans are concerned, are we arresting the wrong people?

[Riley Herbst]

Yes. I think there is basically zero disagreement on left or right that we don't want gang bangers and drug dealers and rapists and whatever on the streets, whether they are immigrants or otherwise. And those are the people who Trump said he was going to pursue.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Right?

[Riley Herbst]

He said he was going to get all of the criminal, quote unquote illegals. It turns out there are actually not that many of those people and they are hard to find, those who do exist. So instead they are going after the low hanging fruit, that is people who are working as gardeners or taking care of your kids or day laborers at Home Depot. Those are the people who are much, or for that matter, people who are showing up to their immigration court appointments because they are following the law. Right. There are a lot of people here who are in the process of applying for asylum or in the process of applying for some other kind of legal status, and they have some protections for deportation. In the meantime, they're showing up to their appointments. And by definition these are like the non criminals because they're voluntarily showing up at government offices and they are getting arrested when they do. In addition to all of that, I will also say that Trump is effectively de documenting a lot of immigrants. So people who are here legally, who have permission to be here, who have work permits, he is stripping them of those documents and turning them into quote unquote illegals, which makes them vulnerable to deportation. So these might be asylum seekers. These might be people who are on what's called temporary protected status.

[Al Franken]

This is like the Cubans and Haitians.

[Riley Herbst]

And Afghans, the Ukrainians that we welcomed in. He has said he will not renew their status. So they're, you know, not vulnerable to deportation yet, but they could be very soon.

[Al Franken]

And Afghans, the Afghans are some of these people that risked their lives to help us in when we were there.

[Riley Herbst]

Yes. And they risked the lives of their families. And we made promises to them that because they helped us, we would help.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Them, we would keep them safe.

[Riley Herbst]

And instead, what we are doing is taking away the status that they already had, turning them into, again, illegals, and then saying, hey, you're illegal, you broke the law, and we are now going to deport you. So these are people who did not actually do anything wrong. They didn't cross the border illegally. They didn't overstay a visa deliberately. It's that Trump just said, you know, yoink, we are. We are manifesting into reality the fever dream that Trump once had about we're being invaded by illegal immigrants. It's happening because he's turning legal ones into illegal ones.

[Al Franken]

These are people who were vetted, right, in their countries before they got here.

[Riley Herbst]

Yes, often that is the case. So a lot of the people who are here on what was called a parole program from Nicaragua, Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, those are people who were vetted in their home country. And again, part of the design of a program like that was to discourage people from showing up at the border unannounced, saying, here is the legal pathway to come here. You can apply from your home country.

[Kathryn Rampell]

You can be vetted.

[Riley Herbst]

You have to line up a sponsor in the United States.

[Al Franken]

Remember the Haitians in Springfield, Ohio?

[Kathryn Rampell]

That's the ones eating the cats and the dogs.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, the one that supposedly were eating cats and dogs that Trump said in the debate.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

So there are a lot of people who came in, quote, unquote, the right way, which is what Trump and his allies claim that they want people to do. And he's saying, no, never mind. Even though you came in legally, even though you came in with a sponsor, even though you have a work permit and are doing everything that the government has asked you to do, we are now negating all of that and saying you're illegal now. Sorry, get out of the country, either self deport, or we're going to round.

[Kathryn Rampell]

You up and put you in detention.

[Riley Herbst]

Indefinitely and then deport you and deport.

[Al Franken]

You sometimes to third countries. They weren't. The Supreme Court ruled that, right?

[Riley Herbst]

Yes. We sent a bunch of people to a notorious gulag in El Salvador. There are other third country locations that we have been trying to send people to or have sent people to. And if listeners recall, Trump also has an ongoing set of countries subject to a travel ban, basically meaning that their citizens can't come here. And there was a memo leaked recently saying that one way to not be on the travel ban list is to accept people we have deported to your country, even if they are not from your country. If you agree to these terms to, like, be the dumping ground for people who we are denying due process to, but we have decided are illegal, and we don't, you know, for whatever reason, we don't or can't send them back to their home country. Maybe their home country isn't accepting people back, like Venezuela, you know, we have complicated relationships with. Then your country will be spared the travel ban. So it's like twisting the arm of a bunch of other countries so that they can help us do our dirty.

[Al Franken]

Work and maybe shipping them to a country where they don't even speak the language.

[Riley Herbst]

Yes, yes.

[Al Franken]

Let's move on to tariffs in terms of the economic effects. Trump keeps saying that our country has a lot of money coming in from these tariffs. Of course, that's. He just keeps throwing out figure. He keeps saying things. We have $50 billion coming in from these tariffs, but this money is from Americans, right?

[Riley Herbst]

Yes. And the way that tariffs work out, they are disproportionately borne by the poor. So even if we are raising tariff revenue and the numbers that we have been collecting are actually nowhere close to what had been promised, in part because Trump keeps on delaying and pausing tariffs and whatnot, we are collecting some money, but that money is being paid largely by Americans. And of the Americans who are paying it, it is disproportionately poor people. That's because poor people are more likely to spend their money on imported goods.

[Al Franken]

Well, if you import goods, then the people that pay the tariffs are the people who are importing the goods, right?

[Riley Herbst]

Yes.

[Al Franken]

So those are Americans.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah. So there's like, a long supply chain here. Right. So there might be a factory in China that sends stuff to an importer in the United States. And then the importer is responsible for actually, like, effectively cutting the check to pay the tariff. And the importer might say, okay, we'll absorb some of the cost, but probably they're going to pass along some of that cost in the form of higher prices to the retailer or the wholesaler. You know, like, so the importer, maybe the importer is some middleman between the factory and Walmart. Let's say, I'm just making this up. So the importer might absorb some of the cost. Walmart might absorb some of the cost. Walmart's customers will absorb some of the cost. Who shops at Walmart? It is disproportionately lower income people, richer people in general spend a lower fraction of their earnings on goods.

[Al Franken]

So this is inflationary, right?

[Kathryn Rampell]

I mean, yes, yes.

[Riley Herbst]

I mean by inflation means, prices rising, tariffs will raise prices. Again, who actually ends up bearing most of the price increase? It will depend on what the thing, what the product is that we're talking about. But yes, it will raise prices and it has raised prices at least on certain goods or inputs. You know, we actually got inflation data today that showed inflation was a little bit hotter than it has been or than had been expected. We haven't seen a huge increase yet, in part because there have been so many pauses again on many of these tariffs. But a bunch of things are still coming down the pike. So, for example, the Trump administration announced this week that it is tariffing tomatoes from Mexico.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Why?

[Riley Herbst]

I have no idea. But for some reason, Trump is putting tariffs.

[Al Franken]

This is a 30% tariff that he's putting on.

[Riley Herbst]

I think it's a, it's a 17% tariff in this case. There are different Mexico tariffs that we could get into. It's honestly, it is so hard to keep track of what's being tariffed at what amount from what country. This is just tomato specific, something like 70% of the tomatoes, the fresh tomatoes that Americans eat, eat are from Mexico. And those tend to have very, very slim margins. So, like there isn't really someone in the middle to absorb a lot of that cost of the tariff because the margins are so narrow. So probably tomato prices are going to go up as a result of this. And people will notice when they go to the grocery store. I forget when the tariffs take effect. I think maybe next week tomatoes are probably going to be a little bit more expensive pretty soon, especially since supermarkets could not stock up on tomatoes the same way that they might have tried to stock up on cars or washing machines or other things that are more durable in anticipation of the tariffs. Produce is something where it's really hard to front run them. But then you also have lots of other products where companies did try to stock up and they're finally running low. They're running low on whatever goods they build their warehouse shelves with back in January before, you know, well, before Liberation Day and all of this other stuff. So you will start to see those prices rise. And again in Certain kinds of things where the tariffs have been in place, we've already seen increases, even if they're a little bit harder to track. So, like, steel prices, we. We do have higher tariffs on steel. Steel prices in the US Are much higher than they are in the rest of the world. And regular consumers don't buy steel for the most part, but auto companies do. Appliance makers do. And so you've seen a lot of those other companies struggle.

[Al Franken]

And car parts.

[Riley Herbst]

Right, Car parts, you know, it's. It's steel and aluminum. So I think there have been a bunch of stories about beer makers who are struggling because their cans have gotten a lot more expensive. You know, anybody who. Any company that uses cans, soup makers, you know, things like that, so.

[Al Franken]

Well, Catherine, thank you for this. And I'm really. You're about to pop, right? Any. Any day now.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Yes, so they tell me.

[Riley Herbst]

Or so I feel. Certainly.

[Al Franken]

Can you break it here whether you're having a boy or a girl or Is that.

[Kathryn Rampell]

It's going to be a girl.

[Al Franken]

Okay. Well, congratulations.

[Riley Herbst]

Thank you.

[Al Franken]

And as I said, it's. It's. Don't. Don't worry if it's painful.

[Kathryn Rampell]

Well, I'm probably.

[Al Franken]

That's not a bad sign, no matter what, but. Yeah. Well, that's great. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I always tell pregnant women.

[Kathryn Rampell]

All right.

[Al Franken]

That doesn't mean anything is wrong. Well, thank you, Kathryn. Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Kottke, the great Leo Kotke. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week. Step into the world of power, loyalty, and luck.

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