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Al Franken
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Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell
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Tim Miller
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Keke Palmer
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Al Franken
Hey everybody. We got a great one today. You know, for a change, the amazing Sarah Longwell joins us again. Sarah is the publisher of the Bulwark and host of the focus group podcast. And we're going to get an idea where Trump stands with the American public because his insane comments about the war in Ukraine had not yet been focus grouped. Sarah and I don't talk about that, but I will now. President Trump has been blaming the war on Volodymyr Zelensky. You'll remember, of course, that the Russians invaded Ukraine and had expected to roll over Kyiv in a matter of hours. Well, that didn't happen. And here we are three years later.
Peter Ogburn
And there are more than a million.
Al Franken
Dead and wounded, with Russian troops taking the larger number of casualties. But with Ukrainian civilians taking a toll from Russian missiles and in eastern Ukraine being tortured and murdered by Russian troops. Not to mention the atrocities they committed close to Kyiv at the beginning of the war. The fact that Trump won't acknowledge that the Russians started the war is a travesty. That Trump asked Kyiv for half the $11.5 trillion value of their rare earth minerals is disgusting. And that Ukraine is considering even a piece of it speaks to how desperate Ukraine is. Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would take Kyiv in one day. Three years later, with so many dead and wounded on both sides and Putin caring only about a deal that would make the remaining piece of Ukraine vulnerable in a few years is going to be part of Trump's legacy. And I hope and pray that I'm wrong about that. But let's remember what this is really about. This is payback time for Zelensky because Zelensky wouldn't make a deal with Trump to lie about then former Vice President Joe Biden. Zelenskyy wouldn't open an investigation into Biden and his son Hunter, which Trump suggested Zelensky do if he wanted to get some weapons from us, which, you'll recall was the reason for Trump's first impeachment. Well, Sarah Longwell is with us. It's a great one today, you know, for a change.
Keke Palmer
Hey, everyone, it's your girl, Keke Palmer. Did you know I host a podcast called Baby, this is Keke Palmer. And you're not going to believe the conversations I've had. Like, is Onlyfans Only bad? How has dating changed in the digital age? What's the deal with Disney adults? I talked to John Stamos, the vp, Kamala Hearst, to Jordan Peele, Raven Simone, and yes, the one and only Jamila Jamil. And just wait until you hear our conversation. We talk Twitter drama, bad dates, and then time. How the hell do you actually get sexy? Like, what the hell does that mean? Like, I know how to be funny. I know how to be like. You know what I'm saying?
Sarah Longwell
Exactly.
Keke Palmer
Like, I don't really know how to be like. And take your clothes. I'm not robbing fucking givens. You know, it's like, how do people do that?
Sarah Longwell
I've been in this situation too many times and not. Not felt any of those things. The girl.
Keke Palmer
Yeah, quiet.
Sarah Longwell
Like, I've never been quiet a moment in my fucking life.
Keke Palmer
Yes, um, Baby, this is Keke Palmer. No topic is off limits. Follow Baby, this is Keke Palmer. On the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcast, you can listen early and ad free right now by joining Wondery.
Narrator
A few miles from the glass spires of Midtown Atlanta lies the south river forest. In 2021 and 2022, the woods became a home to activists from all over the country who gathered to stop the nearby construction of a massive new police training facility nicknamed Cop city.
Al Franken
At approximately 9:00 this morning, as law enforcement was moving through various sectors of the property, an individual, without warning shot a Georgia State Patrol trooper.
Narrator
This is We Came to the Forest, a story about resistance.
Sarah Longwell
The abolitionist mission isn't done until every prison is empty and shut down.
Narrator
Love and fellowship.
Tim Miller
It was probably the happiest I've ever been in my life.
Narrator
And the lengths will go to protect the things we hold closest to our hearts. Follow We Came to the Forest on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcasts, you can binge all episodes of We Came to the Forest early and ad free right now by joining Wondery.
Peter Ogburn
Well, I am pleased to welcome Sarah Longwell to the podcast again. Sarah is the publisher of the Bulwark.
Sarah Longwell
Indeed.
Peter Ogburn
What does that mean? You're the publisher of the Bulwark?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's a good question. I had that same question when I became the publisher because I didn't have a media background, and so I was just the one who raised the money in the early days for it. I was the one who kind of put it together and they were like, well, that's what a publisher does. So you're the publisher.
Peter Ogburn
I see. It's like the producer in a, in a movie.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Peter Ogburn
Okay, you're the publisher because you raised the money for the thing. But does that also mean that you have any control over the content?
Sarah Longwell
I mean, I produce the content as some of it. Right. So I have my own show on there, the focus group, and I do the Next level with Tim and jbl. But no, we've got a whole group of editors who are the ones responsible for what content comes out all the time. And trust me, I am not looking at all of it, but I believe in them and so I know it's all great.
Peter Ogburn
Okay, sounds like you're a good boss. You have your regular focus group podcasts and that's what I want to talk about mainly today. Now you're the host of it and do you, when they do the focus groups, are you asking the questions or are you behind a one way mirror or where are you?
Sarah Longwell
I, For a long time I was the one answering the questions. But then once I became sort of more public in what I was doing, I got a professional moderator to come in. But because part of what happened was during the pandemic, we started asking the focus group companies, do you have a list? Can we do this on Zoom? Because I didn't want to stop doing focus groups because I found them so useful. And they said, yeah. And so we started doing them entirely on Zoom, which really changed the game about how you could do focus groups, because before you'd, everybody would be from the same place. Right? You'd fly to Phoenix or you'd fly to New Hampshire. And now you can say, okay, what I want is college educated suburban women who voted for Biden and this time voted for Trump. And I want to talk to them. And they could be from anywhere. And you can sort of sort demographically like that. And I found that really useful. So we do almost all of them by Zoom. So I don't watch them behind a mirror. I just sit and watch them on Zoom.
Peter Ogburn
You're one of all the, all these people on Zoom?
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
Peter Ogburn
Just like everybody else is when you're doing this. You're. You now have a moderator that asks the questions, not you.
Sarah Longwell
That's right.
Al Franken
Okay.
Peter Ogburn
Now, I've been listening to these, and it seems like, tell me if this is changing, but it seems like Trump is sort of near 50% approval among the general public. The people you talk to generally are people who voted for Trump but had at one time voted the other way, who voted for Biden in 20 and may have voted for Hillary in 16.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. So sometimes I get on kicks about who I really want to hear from at a particular moment. Right now, I'm pretty obsessed with a lot of the. I'm going to say low info, but I don't mean that pejoratively because I think that these are just people living their lives. But they tended to be Democrats, soft Democrats. People who voted for Clinton definitely voted for Biden last time, but who this time voted for Trump. And what's interesting to me about that group of people is that we saw all across the country, big swings sort of toward Trump, even in places that were not swing states.
Peter Ogburn
Right.
Sarah Longwell
And so I, I want to understand why that is, because for that to happen, you have to have people who voted for Biden and then voted for Trump this time. And so I've focused on them here in those. This first couple of months of the Trump administration, and it's been pretty illuminating for me.
Peter Ogburn
And it was a big swing, if you look at the numbers, because how much did Biden win the popular vote by? About 7 million, right?
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
Peter Ogburn
And this time it's about 1 and a half million For Trump. Right?
Sarah Longwell
For Trump. That's right.
Peter Ogburn
So that's a big change.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And a lot of the swing, you know, in the battleground states where there's a lot of concentrated advertising, the move was slightly narrower. But if you go look at a place like New Jersey or New York, like one stat that always kind of blows my hair back, is the idea that Trump came closer to winning New York than Kamala Harris did to winning a place like Texas or Florida. And Florida, you know, a place, you know, about four cycles ago that Democrats.
Peter Ogburn
Could still win, but that we have just given up on, and Texas we just kind of give up on. And Trump was closer to winning New York, New York, than Harris was to winning either Texas or Florida. Or Florida, that is.
Sarah Longwell
And you don't think of New York as a place that, you know, is within reach for Republicans.
Peter Ogburn
New York City in it.
Sarah Longwell
Right, right. A big place not known for its Republican politics.
Peter Ogburn
Yeah. So that all of that is very scary. I don't take much solace for it. Was only a million and a half that he won and that he didn't get more a majority of the vote either. He got 49.9%. So do you think this is like a honeymoon period?
Sarah Longwell
I do. I think Trump's getting something of a muted honeymoon and something he didn't get last time back in 2016. Like, that was such an accident of history in some way. No one expected him to win. And so there was this immediate backlash, like, how could this happen? This is insane. And that's not happening this time. But he's not getting the kind of honeymoon like Joe Biden got. I mean, Joe Biden, there was a CBS poll that showed him at 53% approval. Joe Biden was at 62% in March. So roughly a month off was 9 points higher than Trump. And so Biden got a much bigger honeymoon than. Than Trump is getting. But Trump is getting for him, relative to him, a honeymoon this time around.
Peter Ogburn
And Biden's honeymoon ended with Afghanistan, with.
Sarah Longwell
The exit from Afghanistan and the resurgence of Delta. And then, then that's when inflation started spiking to it. Like, all kind of happened around August of 21.
Peter Ogburn
Yeah, it was next month. I think it was 9% or something like that. So what are you hearing from these folks?
Sarah Longwell
Well, it depends on what you're talking about, but I would say broadly in this group. So people who had voted for Biden and now voted for Trump, he's definitely getting a honeymoon from these folks, from these type of person who is saying, you look, I took a swing on him and I'm going to give him a little bit of time to see how it goes. And so it's interesting on different issues. So let's take immigration, for example. In immigration, you have part of the group that will say things like, this is great. He's deporting people. I see ICE trucks in my neighborhood. He's getting people out. And you know, what if the nice grandfather has been here for 20 years, but isn't a legal immigrant if he goes to. Oh, well, like, you gotta. You can't make an omelette without breaking some eggs is literally something somebody said in the group. But then you've got another part that says, well, wait a minute, I thought he said he was just gonna deport people who are criminals. But actually it looks like he's deporting people that I know. Like, I have friends who are undocumented and he's going after them, and I didn't sign up for that. And so, you know, it's interesting to me, where some people are getting exactly what they asked for and other people feel like they're getting not what they asked for.
Peter Ogburn
Did he actually say that, though? I'm not going to go after people are undocumented, but.
Sarah Longwell
Well, what he said is documented.
Peter Ogburn
I mean, it just seems like it's Stephen Miller. I feel like he's the one directing our whole policy.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but. And I'll tell you, these voters have no idea who Stephen Miller is.
Peter Ogburn
Oh, well, you don't have to know who he is, but we know who he is.
Sarah Longwell
I know. You know, look, when it comes to voters, especially people who aren't paying tons of attention, a lot of times they hear what they want to hear. Right. So these voters, in order to vote for Trump, maybe because of more economic reasons, on immigration, where they have more moderate views, what they heard him say was he was going to deport criminals. And they said, well, that's okay. But now that he's deporting a grandfather who's been here for 20 years and has done nothing but work and contribute to society, there is a group of people who are saying, I didn't think he was going to do that. And I think that's true in other areas as well. Look, there's going to be a period of time on, you know, eggs. Eggs has become our stand in for sort of economics.
Peter Ogburn
Well, there's an avian flu, so people should kind of factor that in. I want to defend Trump here.
Sarah Longwell
You do? Okay, well, go ahead. But it's more just the way that we talk. Right. It's the discourse around eggs. But generally speaking, voters are going to give him grace, a grace period for when they see the economy. Like, they. They're not. If you go to them right now and you're like, well, egg prices are high, they might not know about the avian flu, but they would say, I don't know. He's been doing this for two months, so, like, give him a minute. He's not going to turn around the economy in two seconds. So I think he gets a honeymoon and some grace on that. And I'll also say on things like Elon Musk and Doge, you hear from voters kind of. Again, I'll take this. It's similar to immigration. There's a bunch of people who think there's so much waste, inefficiency. This is great. I love what they're doing. They don't know any of the particulars, but they don't care about foreign aid. They don't care about a lot of It. So they're just, they're like, yes, he's doing stuff. This is good. Then you get this other group of people that are like, why is this billionaire in our stuff? Like, I don't understand, why is he doing that? Because they have this a reflexive response to some super wealthy guy who was not elected to anything running the government. And so you get some people who are on board excited about it. And then you get other people where Musk is kind of a vulnerability for Trump and they're not sure why he's there and they're not freaking out yet, but they're not sure why this is happening and they're not sure it's good.
Peter Ogburn
Do they, do they have any thoughts about the speed of which he's doing things and how it's impossible to keep track of everything?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but mostly they think that part, that part people like. And I think this is a place where you've got sort of understand the media and information environment has changed a ton over the last decade while Trump's been on the scene. And even in 2020, there was, you heard from a lot of swing voters, like, I'm ready to not have a president in my face talking to me all the time. But then there was four years of people feeling like there was a total information vacuum. I never see Biden, I never see Harris. What are they doing? I don't know anything. And so now that Trump is back in people's faces and he's issuing executive orders, people can't parse the individual actions of Trump and the administration. What they do see is a lot of activity and that makes people feel like something is being done. You as somebody who, if you say, I'm going to look at the Biden administration compared to the Trump administration and maybe Biden was actually passing much more meaningful, larger scale policies. The way that Trump does it with the bluster and the flash and the everything going voters see and Trump talking to people all the time, communicating with people all the time, holding press conferences.
Peter Ogburn
In the Oval while he's signing, you.
Sarah Longwell
Know, executive orders, people think he's doing stuff. And it will take a little bit of time before people have a value judgment on whether those things are good or bad.
Peter Ogburn
Well, yeah, so speaking of which, has there been any sense of some value judgments on things that he's done, like withdrawing aid to USAID or money to usaid?
Sarah Longwell
Oh, man, this is, this is where Trump and Musk have been. I don't want to use the word smart, but let's just say Strategic for their objectives, which is that they picked things that Americans a don't know what they do involve. Mostly things that are foreign. Right. So, and Americans are not going to feel a negative personal consequence from in any immediate way. So to the extent that USAID is about soft power around the world and in this kind of high toned way, make America safe, make individual Americans safer by having a soft power policy. Right. And, and by not allowing a leadership vacuum that China can sit, can, can come into. Right. Americans don't think about that. They just think, well this is money that my tax dollars are spending that don't, don't go to me or Americans. And so in an immediate way it's popular with people. They're like, and also Trump and Musk are doing this communication overwhelmed thing. But what they're saying is like look at all the corruption we're finding. Like the most recent story this where they said we found $8 billion worth of waste and fraud and of course it was only 8 million and they got their zeros mixed up. Or, or they talked about the condoms. Like this was something they came out and they said that we're spending $50 million. We're sending $50 million for condoms for Hamas, I can't remember. For, for Gaza. It was a lie and people, but people heard that and it stuck with them. Like people repeat it back in the focus groups and it's not true.
Peter Ogburn
Someone starts a rumor and man. Hey Peter, do you have a guy saying that in one of our clips?
Unknown
I was tuning into the press briefing earlier and I saw the press secretary mention that Doge and the Office of Management and Budget found that the Biden administration was about to send $37 million to the World Health Organization and $50 million to fund condoms for Gaza apparently. So I think it was just like a money laundering thing that the last administration was doing. But in terms of Trump's first week in office, I think he's pretty much telling every world leader that he's still unpredictable and to not, do not mess with them because he will come at you with some tariffs or other economic sanctions that you haven't seen before.
Peter Ogburn
Do you know where the condom rumor came from? Or, or it just stuck.
Sarah Longwell
I have no idea where it came from. I mean, I think they made it up out of whole cloth.
Peter Ogburn
Somebody did and then it. But it caught on clearly.
Keke Palmer
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
I mean, and here's. This is a kind of a truism about media in general is when you use words like condom or sex or other things, right. Those lodge in People's brains slightly better than like, why do people get so engaged around trans issues or even, you know, gay marriage? These were all things people could have an opinion on that was more fun to talk about than the federal budget and all of the nuances and numbers therein.
Peter Ogburn
So, so speaking of trans issues, seems that Trump has picked subjects that are, he knows where the American people are.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I mean, one of the things I think, I think this is an Ezra Klein line, but it's one that I agree with deeply, is that Trump won the vote by much less than he won the culture. He won the culture war by more than he won the election. And I think that's true. I mean, I don't know if you have the sound from this particular woman, but there was a woman that's really stuck with me from one of the groups. She's a black woman who's probably middle aged. Her husband died of COVID She is now partnered with a woman. She's got like three teenage kids and she was talking about how she's sorry, she doesn't want to be this person, but like, she doesn't want to talk about the trans stuff anymore. And she, she, she's fine with it. She just, it's too much. And I, I just, I do hear this kind of all the time from Democrats. Like this, actually, this person, this was from a focus group that was not Biden to Trump voters. This is somebody who voted for Harris. And you know, even with sort of Democrats, you just are like, man, what I want is somebody who can win. And I want them to stop focusing on DEI and trans stuff like Trump did by making these issues. I just think there is a cultural backlash. I just hear it a lot.
Peter Ogburn
Well, the ad that they ran of her saying back in what, 20, that she was behind women in prison getting trans surgery.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, it was like taxpayer funded trans surgery for prisoners. I'm not sure you can pick an issue that's more unpopular, massively unpopular. And this isn't to say it is not fair, like, or not it's not fair. It's, it's crappy of them. Right. The way that they pick on trans people. But I think what these voters are saying and this woman, everybody's like, I'm fine with trans people. I think people should be able to do what they want. They just sort of want Democrats to stop dying on some of these unpopular hills and taking these unpopular positions that feel broadly out of step with the American public.
Peter Ogburn
The whole election could have been changed by that one ad.
Sarah Longwell
If Democrats were not sort of being talked into walking the plank on these deeply unpopular issues by groups that are like, no, go on the record and say this thing. Right. The. The thing about that ad that was so potent was they had her directly saying it, I think.
Peter Ogburn
Well, she said in a. When she was trying to get the nomination.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Peter Ogburn
From on the Democratic side. So she decided to go there. There's something to be said for trans surgery for someone in prison, I guess, that, you know, I don't know if it's a number one priority, but. But that might be the right thing to do.
Sarah Longwell
That. That's right. But I think the idea that taxpayers should fund it. Right. To an average person, they think, well, this is not what I pay my tax dollars for. Somebody who committed a crime, who wants a sex change while they're incarcerated. And that same person might very well say, sure, if somebody can prove that they really need a sex change and this is who they are. Like. And they can pay for it. Like, whatever, I don't care. But, like, I'm not going to pay for it. And that's not an unreasonable position for someone to take.
Peter Ogburn
Okay, good. We've sorted that out.
Al Franken
We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back with Sarah Longwell. And we are back with Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and host of the focus group podcast.
Peter Ogburn
So this is a honeymoon period for Trump.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I mean, I think part of what we're seeing right now and the way that voters are, the way that people are, is that they tend to not be bothered by things that don't have consequences for them personally.
Peter Ogburn
So they're not worried that Trump seems to be siding with Russia in the Ukraine war.
Sarah Longwell
Ooh, well, that's a whole different prospect. So I was going to argue before that part of the reason he's in this honeymoon period is that by rampaging through the government and making all these indiscriminate cuts, like, eventually, either the government does nothing, and if they cut it all, it will have no consequences, in which case it's a problem in and of itself, or that the government does an awful lot that people don't really realize. And by making these indiscriminate cuts, there will eventually be negative personal consequences for people. And we are starting to see some of that. Right. By farmers in the Midwest who are being impacted by these things.
Peter Ogburn
They get crops from. From our farmers, and those contracts are getting canceled.
Sarah Longwell
Those contracts are getting canceled. And so when there are negative personal consequences, that stuff starts to filter through okay, so that's when honeymoon periods start to end, is when people start getting hit with them. Now you're asking a different question about the fact that America is now siding with Russia. I mean, Marco Rubio's soul looked like it was leaving his body or had left his body. He's sallow because he is having to do the thing that should be. Now, he's clearly. Marco, I'll tell you, as a. As a former Republican, I'm not sure there's anything I'm more embarrassed by than having supported Marco Rubio and believing he was the future of the Republican Party. Because watching him sit down with Russia to. I mean, and the way Trump is talking about Ukraine, as though Ukraine started this war with Russia, it is unconscionable what we're doing right now. I mean, it's just disgraceful. But, you know, it is going to take a Democratic Party that can explain to the American people why it's disgraceful. People could see on Afghanistan, right. They could see the images of the planes leaving behind people and the crowded airports and the. All the mayhem. And, you know, that is different than what this is. Right, because there's not. There's not carnage to look at. But Democrats are going to explain to the American people that we are creating an absolute power vacuum. We are siding with our enemies and empowering China in every way possible.
Peter Ogburn
We're siding with the side that started this war and expected to take it over. And in a couple days. Yeah, thank God for us that we, you know, that Biden put a coalition together and anticipated it and was telling our allies what was going on. So that was Biden playing that extremely well.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but your question about the American people is that they are not going to get exercised about this without leaders who help them understand why they should be exercised about it.
Peter Ogburn
Well, speaking of that, shouldn't Democrats be screaming right now?
Sarah Longwell
How much time you got for me to talk about what Democrats should be doing right now? Yeah, yeah, they should be screaming. And. And look, I don't think Democrats have to swing at absolutely every pitch. And I. I do not think it's a little tough. Right. Because I think Democrats are caught a bit between a rock and a hard place, where on one hand, they hear a lot of people being like, oh, my God, do something. And then they're like, okay, well, we're gonna go stand outside USAID and, like, wave Arcanes. And everybody's like, but not like that. No, don't do that. And they're like, okay, well, want us to do. And I guess part of it is, I don't know, identify a bunch of your best messengers and send them out in a full on frontal offensive approach on communications to talk about all of the things that Trump is doing and why it is damaging not to federal agencies or federal workers, but by and for and to the American people and who are going to like suffer negative repercussions because of that. Like somebody has to tell that story. And so I think indiscriminate screaming probably not good. Getting on the same page about high level messaging, about the level of corruption we're now experiencing, the level of negative consequences for people and the way that we are siding with our enemies and capitulating to them. Like those things are important and somebody needs to get out there and start doing real offensive messaging on that and not offensive going on offense.
Peter Ogburn
Well, speaking of costs to us, how much are Americans going to be paying for some of these decisions that are made now? Where. Oh good, he's cutting stuff. And who's gonna, who is on the other end of that that's being cut?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, there's a really good piece in the Bulwark by Sam Stein that talks about like the brain drain of the federal government. Like it's, it's sort of when they fired all the nuclear workers. Right. This is a good example of smart. Yeah, they're morons. This is a part of the problem. They deeply are morons. And that maybe Democrats should just move with that talking point. These people are morons. They fired the people in charge of our nuclear arsenals. And then when they were like, oh crap, we shouldn't have done that, they went to go find them and they were like, we don't know how to find these people. I don't know why they can't find them.
Peter Ogburn
Who basically said, we're going to get rid of all the guys who handle the nuclear arsenal. And who didn't go, like, should we give that some a second thought?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, maybe we should, maybe we should reconsider because it's our nuclear arsenal. Well, this is what happens when you go into agencies and you don't know what they do and you don't know, like part of the sub agency is that they manages all of our nuclear weapons, but you just make indiscriminate cuts and so the people are gone. So anyway, that's like a kind of brain drain.
Peter Ogburn
Okay, well, let me just ask. Why don't they go to whoever it is? Okay, it's Chris Wright is the energy secretary.
Al Franken
Why?
Peter Ogburn
I mean, he's he's in charge of energy and one of their biggest responsibilities, that the Secretary of Energy is in charge of our nuclear arsenal.
Sarah Longwell
Because he's been there for five minutes. Maybe he didn't even know that was in his purview. I mean, maybe he hasn't even been confirmed yet. I don't know. But, like, this is the thing. Like, they're firing people. It's just like what they did at the FBI or they were. They're firing people before the new leaders are in, right? Because they've got this crazy mandate from Trump and because people who don't know what they're doing are just running roughshod. And at the end of the day, what's going to happen is a bunch of people who knew where all the bodies were buried, knew where the levers are the keys, somebody suddenly is going to look up and say, well, crap, we don't know who knows the answer to this, and they'll be gone. And that's because Musk is taking the same approach to the federal government that he takes to Twitter and the long term ramifications of running out everybody who knows everything. And look, I'm not like a big, huge fan of the, of a bloated federal government. I'm a former Republican. I was raised on waste, fraud and abuse. I love cutting it, but like, these indiscriminate, insane cuts will never be what they're. Oh, this was the quote that I was thinking of before. It's some legislator, but it's like any idiot can kick down a barn, but it takes a carpenter to build one. Right? And this is sort of what they're doing. Like, it's easy to just destroy stuff, but it's hard to put together meaningful things. They'll be sorry when it's gone.
Peter Ogburn
Are people mad at Musk? Is, Are you hearing that? Are, are we beginning to get that?
Sarah Longwell
You know who's mad at Musk is a lot of the Republicans. These pathetic, mewling, spineless Republicans who behind the scenes are saying, my constituents, the things that I care about, Money that matters. You know, there's a lot of Republicans who are on like, the National Endowment for Democracy, and they're all pretending like they're not right now. But behind the scenes, they're all freaking out because Musk is taking away not just all the money from the programs that they care about, but he's also usurping Congress. You know, our federal government wasn't built to work like this. It was built on three co. Equal branches of power and the expectation was that Congress would exercise that power. And it's not. It's given it over to musk. But behind the scenes, they're all, they're all freaking out about it. And so eventually, I do think you'll start to see some pushback.
Peter Ogburn
That's the question. Are Americans, and especially Republicans and especially their base looking at this and going, hmm, that seems like we're blowing it?
Sarah Longwell
So here's what I would say historically is true. Most presidents get a honeymoon period while people wait to see what they're doing. Right now, Republicans are claiming that they've got this enormous mandate, which I don't think is true, but they did win the election, both the popular vote in the Electoral College. And they're going to get. The American people are going to give them some space. But right around that, that we were just talking about that August date for Biden when things started to fall apart, that actually, historically is when you see the honeymoon period end for presidents. And so I think that the fact that they're doing such damage right now, like, it's going to take a minute for people that to hit people. Not just the realization, but, like, for the actual consequences of it. And if you take the negative consequences of that and you add on it what is certain to be tax breaks for very wealthy people, potentially a spike in inflation from, you know, whatever Trump's doing with tariffs and everything else, like, that's when you start to see public sentiment shift in major ways. And that's what's going to take for Congress to start, I think trying to rein Trump in and exercise some power is to see that the American people are starting to turn on him. And I, I do believe that they will, but I think it might take until the summer because that is just when it feels like Americans kind of hit their limit with someone.
Peter Ogburn
Is the Fed going to raise rates? If we start seeing more inflation, which it seems that we have, and part of it is, you know, the egg.
Sarah Longwell
Crisis, it'll be interesting to see how independent the Fed is, because Trump's going to try to bully the Fed. You know, they're going to want to raise rates, and he's going to try to force them to lower them. And so we'll see where that nets out. I don't know.
Peter Ogburn
He has no power over them, we think, but he's doing things that are never been done before.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, here's the one thing I'll say. Trump, of all the things that constrain him, one of them does seem to be the stock market, because all of his friends are rich, and they care about the stock market. And so if things do adversely impact the market, I do think those are the things. It's just why the market. The market reacted to the idea that he was going to do the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. It wasn't because, you know, people booed us at a hockey game that he changed it. It was because the markets were getting spooked. And so he. He tried to turn it into a win, but he did back off. And so if it does look like it's going to have catastrophic impact on the markets, I do think that's when Trump shifts course.
Peter Ogburn
Well, that was a pretty nifty move to get out of that little, little corner.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. It's like, no, Canada's. Canada promised all these new things that they actually promised during the Biden administration. Shamelessness is these guys superpower.
Peter Ogburn
So how often do you do these. These focus groups?
Sarah Longwell
Two or three times a week. I don't know why I'm so obsessed with this. You know what it was? It was that I missed Trump by such a mile, the idea that people could like him, that I started doing focus groups, trying to figure out how we could primary him. When I started listening to voters.
Peter Ogburn
This is back in. This is back in the 16 cycle.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, 17. It was after he won, where I was just as a Republican, so caught off guard that any. But then I started doing the focus groups. I was like, okay. I was, like, talking to, I don't know, governors and congresspeople, being like, you guys got to go run against him. You could beat him in a primary. And said, save the party. Bring it back. And so they were all like, okay, well, like, prove that I could, like, go. Go do focus groups, go do polling. And so I did. And I was like, oh, no, you can't. You can't beat it, actually. And listening to voters became this thing that I. I realized, actually, if you listen to the pundits on TV and you listen to everybody who just talks to each other, you will miss everything. Right. But if you listen to voters, you will not be surprised by what's happening in politics, because voters will tell you. And so now I just. I. That's all I do is listen to voters.
Peter Ogburn
Well, Peter, play one randomly.
Tim Miller
I work in clinical research, and there's a lot of NIH grants and things like that, and a lot of people are just confused. I work for a hospital, so I'm not scared about my job, but I know if I was working over there, I would be. But, yeah, we've been halted communications and it's just like, what do we do? We have no idea. The CEO has no idea. We're just were confused a little bit. And I'm not saying it's the right move, the wrong move, I don't know a ton. But it's definitely like something's happening. He's actually doing something. He said he was going to do something, and he's doing it.
Peter Ogburn
She doesn't seem like that she's thrilled that he's doing something, but she's acknowledging that he said he's doing something, he's doing it, but she doesn't like what.
Sarah Longwell
He'S doing or she's not sure. And I think I hear this. This is what I mean, where I think that there's an opportunity for public opinion to shift in a big way, which is right now, people are giving him grace. They're saying, well, stuff's happening. This is interesting, and I'm going to wait and see. And, you know, I think that if in three months that same woman is like, this is not. No, wait, no, this is bad. Actually, now it is impacting my job. They cut all these grants at nih. Now there's not money to fund the work that we're doing. And now it is impacting me. That's when public opinion starts to turn. But right now, what she, you heard her, she said it. Actually, that's a really good clip because she says it's not impacting me personally. Right. But if I was over there, it would be a problem. But I do see what's happening. So it's a little concerning because this is stuff, but also it's good because I like. And they're the same way on immigration. There was a group of Hispanic voters and they were saying how there's a lot of ICE trucks in their neighborhood. And one of them said, you know, my mom told me not to forget my ID because ICE is out there looking for people. They were like, this is good. We need to do something about illegal immigration. But they were also like, but I don't know, is it a little much? And, you know, we asked them things like, do you want to see immigrants be sent to Gitmo? And they were like, no. Who's talking about that then? Like, actually, Trump is. And so I, I think that Trump's excess, that has always been the thing that ultimately burns him with voters. They want stuff to happen so they'll give him some time, but when it goes too far, they Yelp and it's.
Peter Ogburn
Bound to go too far because they are so ambitious on this front.
Sarah Longwell
I mean, they are trying to secure some kind of. So here's I. I've got my episode about Elon is going to drop this Saturday and it's with Kara Swisher. And you know, it's really interesting as I think we're all trying to figure out, like, what are they trying to do with the government? Like, are they trying to do a massive self enrichment piece? I mean, Elon's personal wealth has doubled. Trump's wealth has massively increased because of his scam coin that he's selling people, which is, by the way, the way foreign corrupt influences are able to put money directly in his pocket by buying his, like, scam coins that goes directly to his family. Like, we've never seen this level of corruption, but I think the question is, is like, oh, and one of the things she was talking about was, well, what does Elon want out of the government? All our information. You can get all of our information. And so, like, are they just going to spend the next four years trying to rob us blind of our information and get super wealthy or are they trying to change the rules so that they can like be a, you know, are they going to try to change it? I don't know if you saw this with Elon, made a joke with Bibi where he was like, well, you can't be president, you know, cause you're an immigrant. And Elon was kind of like, well, technically maybe. Is Trump gonna try to run again in 2020? I mean, they're busting through everything. And I think the question is, are the Democrats gonna be able to catch up? Are the American people gonna push back? And at the end of the day, is Trump gonna escape this with just being a lot richer, or are they going to have permanently changed our government and our democracy and our foreign policy forever?
Peter Ogburn
I think he's ambitious. He wants both to get richer and to change our society for good.
Sarah Longwell
For bad, but for good, for his good.
Peter Ogburn
Yeah. Okay, let's play another one. Peter.
Tim Miller
I was raised actually in Tucson, Arizona, so right by the border. And I remember I went to school with DACA students and things like that, but everyone knew English, everyone spoke English. Whether or not that was like their preferred language with just their friends, that was different. And so, yeah, I knew illegal parents, things like that. They all were working, they had their head down, they were just trying to make it and trying for their kids. And then I moved to Missouri, moved away. And then obviously I go back And I visit and I fly. And sometimes on the flights back, we might be. I'd say probably two thirds of the planes are illegal immigrants that I've been on. I've been on several. We're two thirds of the plane. And it was Southwest, too, so they didn't know anything about where to sit. And it was a whole mess. But I just was like, oh, my goodness. Like, I used to grow up in a border town. It was never this intense and bad. And then my mom's a principal still over in Arizona, and she says, yeah, we can't get teachers because half of them can't talk to the students, or we have to have the students interpret this and that.
Peter Ogburn
How does she know that those are immigrants that are out there sitting in chairs and playing music and drinking?
Sarah Longwell
She doesn't. I actually remember that woman very well from her. From her group. But a lot of people do this. So here's the thing. Let's. Let's first talk about this. This particular point on immigration, which is one of the things that Republicans did by sort of. It was a stunt at first. You know, DeSantis was doing it, and down in Texas, they were sending immigrants to places like New York. In New York, there was a. It. One of the reasons that. That the numbers moved so much in New York was really on this issue of immigration, because suddenly New York was having to deal with this influx of immigrants, and they were giving them housing. They were giving them, like, cards with cash on them. And it made people in New York very angry because they were like, wait a minute. I go to work every day. Nobody's giving me a card with cash on it. Nobody's. I struggle to pay for my housing. Nobody's helping me.
Peter Ogburn
Or I know a guy who sleeps in a car because.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's right. And so I don't think she doesn't know is the real answer. She doesn't know if they're. But there's a sense. There's a sense of. They felt the cultural impact of the migrants that were being shipped into New York. And then also. And it created a tremendous amount of resentment as they were dealing with it. And it is one of the reasons. And I think this is just a look. I think Democrats have been missing the piece on immigration for a very long time. If you do not secure your country's borders, the authoritarians will. And it's happening all over Europe, it's happening all over the world, where sort of mass immigration is causing these snapbacks among the public that is allowing more authoritarian Governments to take control by promising to do something about it. You know, Americans, though, because immigration is so much a part of our legacy in the way that it's not in Europe. There's a typically, actually a higher tolerance here for immigration, but people just want it done legally. And of course, nobody has the patience.
Peter Ogburn
I heard so many of the. In your podcast.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Peter Ogburn
People who are really not happy that two thirds of the people on the plane were immigrants. And again, how do you know?
Sarah Longwell
How do you know?
Peter Ogburn
Yeah, they.
Sarah Longwell
They don't know, but it is. Well, and if you've listened to the groups, you know, you can tell in the groups, a lot of the people talking are native Spanish speakers. Right. They are clearly either naturalized citizens themselves or their first generation.
Peter Ogburn
Or they're Puerto Rican, which is Puerto Rican.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's right. There was a woman in there who was Puerto Rican, talking about how Trump doesn't like Puerto Ricans. And. And that she didn't think she originally, yes, she wanted something done about immigration, but she didn't want them coming after Puerto Ricans. And then was realizing that that is a thing that Trump was going to do that, you know, Puerto Ricans.
Peter Ogburn
He's done it. He's rounded up Puerto Ricans. And of course, they're Americans from birth.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I mean, look, immigration is such a tough one because people just say, I look, I want immigrants to be here, but I want them to come the right way, and they have no idea what the right way is and how.
Peter Ogburn
There'S such a backlog. Our immigration system fell apart a long time ago.
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
Peter Ogburn
Especially when the bipartisan gang of eight.
Sarah Longwell
Of eight.
Peter Ogburn
Yeah, yeah, when the gang of eight. We passed that with 68 votes in the Senate and just The House wouldn't take it. After Syria started falling apart, I think.
Sarah Longwell
People thought there'd be another shot at that, and it never came around. And now we've changed so much on the issue that I'm not sure you'd never get that Gang of Eight together right now.
Peter Ogburn
No, not now. Not now. Okay, let's play another one.
Unknown
When it comes to, like, immigration, I noticed a big effect in New York. Obviously, they were getting bused here by the dozens. And that causes effect on the schools, the school system. It wreaked havoc. My nephew, my sister's son, he just tells me, like, yeah, like a third of his class doesn't speak English. And personally, I think that I have a problem with that. So I'm glad that immigration issue is being addressed.
Peter Ogburn
It has to stop.
Unknown
You know, you can't Just have a faucet running nonstop. That bill's gonna be high. You know, it's gonna cause some water damage, but you're gonna have mishaps. And I know I've read somewhere in New Jersey a veteran, an actual American veteran, was caught up in an immigration sweep and was held for a few days. And that's going to happen. I get that. But it's something that has to be fixed. Once again, it's the same thing of, you know, eggs for omelets.
Peter Ogburn
You know, it's all about education. Everyone when they're kids are in a class that is a third foreign language speakers, they feel that, that, you know, makes it rougher for their kids to, to learn just the normal ABCs and how to read and how to do math. And there's an argument for that. Oh, oh, the enrichment of having people from other countries and getting to know them at this age. There's that too. But parents aren't that happy about this.
Sarah Longwell
No. And look, a lot of the complaints that you hear from people who I think are not hardcore maga, but you know, voted for Donald Trump because they have specific grievances. Like there's a, there's an element of truth or realness to all of it. I mean, I listen to, I get in arguments with people sometimes because they're like, well, the economy is good. And I'm like, okay, but I'm just telling you that there's a lot of 28 year olds who feel completely like they'll never be able to afford not just a house, but to pay rent being what it is in cities. And they're upset about it and they feel like stuff's too expensive. And so they voted for Donald Trump and they didn't do it because they hate immigrants. They didn't do it because they're super sexist or anything. They just think stuff's too expensive or they don't like something about their kids. I mean, I don't know if we've got some of the clips, but there's a ton of people in the groups who are parents who talk about their worries about what their kids are learning in school. And you know, and it was a lot of stuff about pronouns and everything else. And it's not that they're like, don't teach my kids about slavery, which I think is how there are. I'm sure there's people like that. But that's typically not what I hear. I hear people saying, I feel like my kids are being taught about pronouns and not enough math, science, and reading. And like, that's what I want. And I don't want them to do this pronoun stuff because my kid came home, my girl came home and said she thought maybe she was a boy, you know, and. And this is like Trump, right? Trump was. He was part of his stump speeches, he would be like, you send your kid to school and it's a girl and she comes back a boy.
Peter Ogburn
That happens so often.
Sarah Longwell
I was like, you got the wrong kid. Like, you took the wrong kid home. If that happens. Like, if you sent them to school day and just. They're the different. I'm sorry, that's your wrong. But he's making a point that is. Is wrong technically. But using.
Peter Ogburn
What's it called, Lying.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, lying. He does that. Is lying. But it taps into something that is an anxiety for parents of what their kids are getting at school is sort of not. They're uncomfortable with it. And so you do hear a lot of that in the groups. That's like a real thing.
Peter Ogburn
How much of that is cultural? How much of it is. They're looking at what the administration's doing now and going like, well, they have to do something. So, you know, I don't necessarily understand what they're doing. Some people are complaining about it, but they have to do something. So thank God he's doing something.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I do think that is how a lot of people feel. They feel like there's a lot of these problems. They don't feel like they have all the answers, but they want the. The Elon Musk taking a sledgehammer to things is very stupid. But, like, nobody really understands how these big processes work or what these agencies do. And as far as they're concerned, they're failing in lots of ways. They're paying a lot in taxes. They don't feel like they're getting enough for them. So, like, yeah, take the thing down to its studs and rebuild it. And of course, that's just so much easier said than done. And it's being done by a lot of people without any expertise. But there's an appetite for doing something right now, and Trump is tapping into that.
Peter Ogburn
So you get the feeling that they're going to pay for this.
Sarah Longwell
I believe in the constant shifting of the American public's frustrations. And I think that they will tolerate this for a while from Trump. Trump is inevitably going to overreach. And I think eventually the American people will turn against them enough that there will be a correction in 2026. And where Donald Trump is back in the low 40s by 2027. That's my hope, and it is my belief. I think there's a real sense right now of doom that no one cares. And I don't think that's true. I don't think it's that no one cares. I think that people are giving him a chance to do something. And I think that what I personally, observing what they're doing much more closely, believe that it's idiotic. And I think eventually they will pay for that idiocy.
Peter Ogburn
I mean, lately, what we've heard on Ukraine is very disturbing, which is, you know, going to Saudi Arabia, right. And meeting with the Russians there without. Without the Ukrainians. That. That's. They're our allies. Ukraine's our allies. We've been supporting them. And for Hegseth to say they can't keep all their territory, they can't. You know, I mean, Ukraine can't get its territory back. Making those kind of pronouncements this early seems very odd.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, it is. But this I go back to, like, this is where Democrats really come in. And maybe you could tell me this. You were Senator. Why don't they. Why don't these guys call a press conference and explain? Like, the media would come, right. If they. They, like, instead of protesting, Schumer, let other people protest. What Democratic leadership needs to do right now is explain to the American people why what's happening is wrong and what they would be doing instead.
Peter Ogburn
Because we're selling out our ally. We're selling.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but they should tell Americans that that's what we're doing.
Peter Ogburn
Yes.
Sarah Longwell
Like, why don't Democrats call a press conference to be like, we want to talk about why we're opposed to the moves the Trump administration is having to side with Russia over America's ally, Ukraine. Why don't they do that?
Peter Ogburn
I don't know.
Sarah Longwell
I mean, these people have a bully pulpit. They have the ability to convene the press. They have the ability to talk to the American people, and they should use it very much.
Peter Ogburn
So let's. Let's. Let's make them do that.
Sarah Longwell
Okay, well, you just. You send your call.
Peter Ogburn
I'll give a call. Well, Sarah, thank you. I really am a big fan of your. Of everything you're doing.
Sarah Longwell
Oh, thanks. I appreciate that. Big fan of you.
Peter Ogburn
Oh, well, thank you. Well, there you go. So mutual. Mutual admiration society. Well, I hope you enjoyed listening.
Al Franken
That beautiful music is by Leo Kottke, the great Leo Kottke. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.
Keke Palmer
If you like the Al Franken Podcast, you can listen to all episodes ad free right now by joining Wondery in the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts. Prime members can listen ad free on Amazon Music. Before you go, tell us about yourself by filling out a short survey@wondery.com survey.
The Al Franken Podcast: Sarah Longwell on Voter Reactions to Trump's First Month
Release Date: February 23, 2025
In this insightful episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken engages with Sarah Longwell, the publisher of The Bulwark and host of the Focus Group Podcast. The conversation delves into the American public's reactions to former President Donald Trump's first month in office, particularly focusing on his policies, communication strategies, and the resultant voter sentiments.
Al Franken opens the discussion by highlighting the contentious nature of Trump's early days in his administration. He emphasizes Trump's misleading comments regarding the Ukraine war, notably his inappropriate attribution of blame to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Franken underscores the tragic human cost of the ongoing conflict, stating:
"Peter Ogburn: And there are more than a million dead and wounded, with Russian troops taking the larger number of casualties... The fact that Trump won't acknowledge that the Russians started the war is a travesty."
[01:25]
Franken critiques Trump's legacy, particularly his demand for Ukraine to provide a significant portion of their rare earth minerals, which paints a picture of Ukraine's desperation under Russian aggression.
Sarah Longwell shares her observations from the Focus Group Podcast, noting a surprisingly high approval rating for Trump, hovering around 50% among the general public. She remarks on the demographic shift, where individuals who previously voted for Democrats like Biden or Clinton are now supporting Trump. Longwell states:
"Sarah Longwell: So sometimes I get on kicks about who I really want to hear from at a particular moment. Right now, I'm pretty obsessed with a lot of the low info, but I don't mean that pejoratively because I think that these are just people living their lives."
[08:16]
Longwell identifies this group as "soft Democrats" who are economically motivated rather than ideologically driven, explaining Trump's sustained popularity despite controversial policies.
A significant portion of the discussion centers on Trump's stringent immigration policies. Longwell presents a dichotomy in voter responses:
Supportive Segment: Voters appreciate aggressive actions against undocumented immigrants, feeling safer with increased deportations. Longwell quotes a participant:
"this is great. He's deporting people. I see ICE trucks in my neighborhood. He's getting people out."
[12:36]
Disillusioned Segment: Conversely, some voters express discontent when policies overreach, such as deporting long-term residents or family members, highlighting a gap between expectations and reality. Longwell explains:
"But you've got another part that says, well, wait a minute, I thought he said he was just gonna deport people who are criminals. But actually it looks like he's deporting people that I know."
[13:00]
These mixed reactions indicate a nuanced voter base where economic concerns often overshadow ideological stances on immigration.
Longwell critiques Trump's reliance on executive orders and charismatic media presence as tools to maintain public engagement. She observes that:
"Voters are going to give him grace, a grace period for when they see the economy. They say, 'He’s doing stuff. He’s doing it.'"
[15:19]
Trump's frequent press conferences and visible actions create an illusion of productivity, even when substantive policy changes may be lacking or harmful. Longwell contrasts this with Biden's more subdued approach, suggesting that Trump's direct engagement helps sustain his approval despite controversial decisions.
The conversation shifts to the tangible impacts of Trump's policies. Longwell highlights indiscriminate government cuts, particularly in agencies like USAID, which have long-term implications:
"These cut all these grants at USAID. Now there's not money to fund the work that we're doing. And now it is impacting me."
[35:23]
She points out the lack of expertise in the administration, leading to mismanagement and potential national security risks. The resulting "brain drain" and inefficiency could erode public trust and lead to economic hardships, such as increased inflation and reduced federal services.
Longwell critiques the Democratic Party's inadequate response to Trump's aggressive policies. She argues that Democrats need to take a more proactive and unified stance, utilizing their platforms to educate the public on the detrimental effects of Trump's actions. She suggests:
"Democratic leadership needs to explain to the American people why what's happening is wrong and what they would be doing instead."
[50:46]
Longwell emphasizes the importance of coherent and strategic messaging to counteract Trump's narrative and restore faith in democratic institutions.
Drawing from her extensive focus group research, Longwell provides a granular view of voter attitudes:
Notable focus group excerpts include:
"Tim Miller: ... I've been halting communications and it's just like, what do we do? We have no idea. The CEO has no idea. We're just confused a little bit."
[35:27]
"Unknown: When it comes to immigration, I noticed a big effect in New York... I have a problem with that."
[44:24]
These insights illustrate the complex motivations behind voter support, driven by immediate concerns rather than deep ideological alignment.
Longwell forecasts that Trump's honeymoon period will eventually wane as the tangible negative impacts of his policies become more evident to the public. She anticipates:
"I think Trump is inevitably going to overreach. And I think eventually the American people will turn against them enough that there will be a correction in 2026."
[48:51]
She believes that as policies like government cuts begin to adversely affect voters directly, public opinion will shift, leading to decreased support for Trump and increased pressure on Congress to rein him in.
The episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the early days of Trump's administration through the lens of voter focus groups. Sarah Longwell provides a data-driven perspective on why Trump maintains substantial support despite controversial policies, emphasizing economic anxieties and cultural backlash as key drivers. She also highlights the Democratic Party's need for a more robust and cohesive response to effectively counter Trump's strategies and restore public trust.
Notably, the discussion underscores the importance of understanding voter motivations beyond superficial approval ratings, advocating for a deeper engagement with the electorate's underlying concerns. The forecast suggests a potential decline in Trump's popularity as his policies' negative consequences become more tangible, offering hope for a political pivot in the mid-term elections.
Notable Quotes:
This episode is invaluable for listeners seeking to understand the nuanced dynamics of voter behavior in the wake of Trump's policies. Through expert analysis and real-world insights from focus groups, Sarah Longwell paints a detailed picture of the American political landscape during a tumultuous period.