War Correspondent Tim Mak on Russia and Ukraine

Summary

The Al Franken Podcast: War Correspondent Tim Mak on Russia and Ukraine

Release Date: March 2, 2025
Guests: Tim Mak, War Correspondent and Founder of the Substack Newsletter Counteroffensive

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1. Introduction and Context

In this compelling episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken engages in an in-depth conversation with war correspondent Tim Mak, who has been reporting from Ukraine since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Recorded on a Wednesday night before a significant event in the Oval Office, the discussion delves into the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, Trump's recent actions, and their profound impact on Ukraine.

2. U.S. Warnings and Ukraine's Preparedness

Tim Mak recounts his arrival in Kyiv on one of the last commercial flights before Russia's full-scale invasion. He notes that while the U.S., under President Biden, had issued warnings about the impending invasion around mid-February 2022, many Ukrainians, including President Zelenskyy, remained hopeful that the threat was unfounded.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [07:28]: "It was only after a really very resilient counterattack in the first few weeks of the war that Ukraine was able to kick out the Russian invaders."

3. Trump's Negotiations and Their Implications

A significant portion of the discussion centers on former President Donald Trump's approach to negotiations with Ukraine. Mak criticizes Trump's methods, describing them as exploitative uses of historical bonds and alliances to extract concessions without genuine partnership.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [02:07]: "Trump has been using historical bonds of affection and alliances and friendships as if they were currency, as if they were leverage. Right? That's not how you treat friends and partners and neighbors."

4. Impact of Trump's Remarks on Ukraine and Global Perception

Franken highlights Trump's recent statements in the Oval Office, where he allegedly blamed Ukraine and President Zelenskyy for initiating the war. Mak explains that such comments have backfired, rallying Ukrainian support around Zelenskyy and damaging America's reputation globally.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [28:04]: "They're angry about this totally untrue criticism of their president. Only they have the right to criticize their president. Not some guy from the United States and certainly not some guy who has no idea about anything related to Ukrainian politics."

5. Ukrainian Society and Zelenskyy's Leadership

The conversation explores President Zelenskyy's approval ratings, which have dipped from the 90s to the mid-60s amid prolonged conflict. Despite this decline, Mak emphasizes that two-thirds of Ukrainians still support Zelenskyy, a figure that has been further bolstered by Trump's antagonistic stance.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [26:05]: "He's in the... Let's. Let's just say around the mid-60s. That's pretty good by American standards."

6. Psychological and Social Effects in Ukraine

Mak discusses the chronic stress and trauma experienced by Ukrainians living amid ongoing conflict. He describes the constant threat of air raids, the psychological toll of hearing sirens multiple times a day, and the enduring resilience of the Ukrainian people.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [23:05]: "People have been terribly traumatized over several years of being on edge and that cumulative chronic stress."

7. European vs. U.S. Support for Ukraine

A critical analysis is provided on the disparity between European and American military aid to Ukraine. While Europe has contributed more funds, it lacks the manufacturing capabilities of the U.S. to supply essential weaponry, making continued American support indispensable.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [40:29]: "The majority of the weaponry and funds since the beginning of the war have come from Europe, not from the United States. So it's about a 60-40 split."

8. Prospects for Peace and Future Conflict

Mak expresses skepticism about the Trump administration's ability to broker a lasting peace. He warns that any agreement lacking substantial security guarantees could leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [43:48]: "It will only lead to more suffering, more war, more death in the long term."

9. Tim Mak’s Personal Experiences in Kyiv

Throughout the episode, Mak shares personal anecdotes from his time in Kyiv, including living in a government-quarter apartment building, experiencing frequent air raid sirens, and navigating the daily uncertainties of life in a war zone.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [21:10]: "It's like, you know, it's that classic World War II era or even the sort of tornado warnings that sometimes happen in the United States."

10. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode nears its end, Mak emphasizes the importance of unwavering support for Ukraine and the urgent need for genuine, secure agreements to end the conflict. He underscores that without substantial guarantees, any peace achieved will be fragile and temporary.

Notable Quote:

Tim Mak [50:51]: "There are going to be enormous pressures in Russian civil society on the domestic front... as disinflation hits, as bread and butter get more expensive, and as the country fully comes to grips with how many people have died and been injured as a result of this totally senseless and pointless war."

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Key Takeaways

• Exploitation of Alliances: Former President Trump's negotiations with Ukraine are viewed as exploitative, using historical relationships as leverage without genuine partnership.
• Ukrainian Resilience: Despite declining approval ratings, President Zelenskyy remains a unifying figure for Ukrainians, especially in the face of external criticisms.
• Critical U.S. Support: American military and economic aid remain crucial for Ukraine's resistance against Russian aggression, particularly given Europe's limited manufacturing capabilities.
• Psychological Toll: The ongoing conflict has led to chronic stress and trauma among Ukrainians, affecting both civilians and soldiers.
• Skepticism About Peace Deals: Without substantial security guarantees, any peace agreement is likely to be temporary, risking future conflicts and prolonged suffering.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tim Mak [02:07]: "Trump has been using historical bonds of affection and alliances and friendships as if they were currency, as if they were leverage."
• Tim Mak [07:28]: "It was only after a really very resilient counterattack in the first few weeks of the war that Ukraine was able to kick out the Russian invaders."
• Tim Mak [26:05]: "He's in the... Let's. Let's just say around the mid-60s. That's pretty good by American standards."
• Tim Mak [28:04]: "They're angry about this totally untrue criticism of their president. Only they have the right to criticize their president."
• Tim Mak [43:48]: "It will only lead to more suffering, more war, more death in the long term."
• Tim Mak [50:51]: "There are going to be enormous pressures in Russian civil society on the domestic front... as disinflation hits, as bread and butter get more expensive..."

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This episode provides a nuanced perspective on the intricate dynamics between U.S. politics and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, offering listeners a deep dive into the challenges faced by Ukraine and the broader geopolitical implications of recent developments.

Transcript

[Al Franken]

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[Al Franken]

Hey everybody, we got a great one today. You know, for a change, we have Tim Mak, who's been reporting from Ukraine for the last three years. He arrived in Kyiv the day the war started in 2022 on one of the last flights into the country. And Tim has been reporting on the war through his substack, the Counteroffensive with Tim Mack. Now, we recorded this on Wednesday night, so before the depressing exchange in the Oval Office. And to be frank, I'm depressed. Last week in the monologue, I talked about how this was all about that first phone call between Trump and Zelensky where Zelensky wouldn't go along with Trump and say Ukraine was investigating corruption by Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. This is revenge for that phone call. Revenge serve cold. And when I talked to Tim on Wednesday, he kind of called it. Here's Tim on how Trump treats allies.

[Tim Mack]

The way that Trump has been, if you want to even call it negotiating, is that he's been using historical bonds of affection and alliances and friendships as if they were currency, as if they were leverage. Right? That's not how you treat friends and partners and neighbors. But all around the world, Trump has been taking these relationships, which have been built many times on shared sacrifices and even blood during wars, and exploiting these relationships for extracting either personal or national resources and concessions, only to turn around after there have been some concessions to demand more. It's an evil way to think about friendships and partnerships, I think.

[Al Franken]

And of course, in the Oval Office, Trump references that whole thing. Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.

[Tim Mack]

He went through a phony witch hunt where they used him and Russia Russia, Russia, Russia.

[Al Franken]

You ever hear of that deal?

[Tim Mack]

That was a phony. That was a phony Hunter Biden, Joe.

[Al Franken]

Biden scam, Hillary Clinton, shifty Adam Schiff.

[Tim Mack]

It was a Democrat scam and he.

[Al Franken]

Had to go through that. And he did go through it. We didn't end up in a war and he went through it.

[Tim Mack]

He was accused of all that stuff.

[Al Franken]

He had nothing to do with it. It came out of Hunter Biden's bathroom. It came out of Hunter Biden's bedroom. It was disgusting. So Zelensky has finally been properly punished for not doing Trump's bidding way back. 400,000 Ukrainians have been killed in this war. Over 700,000 Russians, 20,000 Ukrainian children kidnapped and taken to Russia. No one wants this to stop more than Zelensky, more than Ukraine. But it has to be on terms that doesn't just set up another Russian invasion down the road like the one that Trump called genius three years ago. Most of all, this is in the United States interest. Our interests ally with the rest of Europe's and not with Russia and Vladimir Putin. Somebody in this administration has to understand that. Maybe Marco Rubio. I hope today was just a bizarre bump in the road. Well, let's get to my conversation with Tim Mack. I think you'll get a lot out of it because we got a great one today. You know, for a change.

[Tim Mack]

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[Tim Mack]

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[Al Franken]

Tim Mack, you are in Taipei most days. Would find you in Kyiv right That's right.

[Tim Mack]

You know, so I cover the war based out of Ukraine and have been there for more than three years now.

[Al Franken]

More than three years. So from the beginning of the war.

[Tim Mack]

In fact, from the night the war started, I landed on one of the last commercial flights into Kyiv right before the full scale invasion began. It was a bit of a wild experience.

[Al Franken]

Wow. So at that time, the US had told Ukraine that the Russians were going to invade.

[Tim Mack]

Right.

[Al Franken]

That was Biden's doing, telling them what was going to happen. And they were prepared for it?

[Tim Mack]

Well, you could say that they were warned about it. I wouldn't say that they were prepared for it. I think that many Ukrainians till the very last moment hoped and thought it wouldn't happen, that this was all just a big charade by Russia and that war wouldn't come. Zelenskyy was one of them, by the way. Zelenskyy was famously said that people in Ukraine would be barbecuing in the summer. Unfortunately, that wasn't to be.

[Al Franken]

But they did have some preparations. I mean, they didn't get caught completely off guard. Right. Because the Russians had planned to land near Kyiv and take it over very quickly.

[Tim Mack]

Right. Well, the forces near Kyiv were not prepared for that. And that's why Russian forces were able to progress so quickly in those first few days. It was only after a really very resilient counterattack in the first few weeks of the war that Ukraine was able to kick out the Russian invaders. But initially they were really expecting, if anything, you know, some battles to the east of Ukraine. They never thought it would be a full scale war with the attempt to decapitate the government and, and, you know, remove Zelensky from power directly and surround the capital city. I mean, that wasn't really something that Ukrainians, most Ukrainians, the vast majority of Ukrainians, really sought to countenance.

[Al Franken]

But even as. Weren't we warning them, weren't we. Wasn't Biden saying, this is what we're getting, what we're hearing and get ready for this.

[Tim Mack]

In the context of the time, the United States actually warned that it would happen, like around mid February, around the 16th or so. And so by the 23rd, 24th, when it actually happened, there was a lot of, you know, talk about, oh, well, you know, the American warnings were all just hype and there was a lot of hopeless optimism by the Ukrainians that this would never happen. If you remember, there were a ton of friendly ties, familial ties, economic ties between these two countries and they just didn't think that it would ever go down that way?

[Al Franken]

Well, that hopeless optimism is not there right now. As we talk, in a couple days, Zelensky is going to be in, in Washington, right?

[Tim Mack]

Well, that's right. It's part of, basically, there's no other way to put it, but this extortionate attempt by Donald Trump to extract from Ukraine its resources at a time when their people are dying.

[Al Franken]

How is that deal being worked out? Do we know how that has worked out or are we going to discover that on Friday or are we going to, is that going to eke out?

[Tim Mack]

Well, here's the thing. We don't know the contours of the deal. It may not even be appropriate to call it a deal as much as it is a deal to talk about more deals. I think the Ukrainian position was to react with shock and dismay over the first offer by the Trump administration, which was essentially, hey, you owe us 500.

[Al Franken]

Billion and it's not anywhere near $500 billion anyway. Right?

[Tim Mack]

Well, the current deal doesn't specifically lay out a figure like that, but I've.

[Al Franken]

Heard that figure, 500 billion. And we have spent. How much have we spent in fighting this war?

[Tim Mack]

The United States, about 100 billion and change in military aid and economic and humanitarian aid. So it's not as if the Ukrainians owe that much. It's also worth pointing out that the Europeans have contributed more than the Americans and they're not expecting any sort of monetary compensation for it. They understand that it's in the shared defense of Europe to back Ukraine, which.

[Al Franken]

I thought, we thought, well, here's the thing.

[Tim Mack]

From the Ukrainian perspective, they were given a gift, a grant, if you will, and suddenly they're being called up and it's the bank and they're saying, well, actually we now want a predatory interest rate on that 500% interest on something we gave to you, other people gave to you, by the way. A different administration gave to you, by the way. And we want that. We'll have that money now, please.

[Al Franken]

What was the reaction from Ukrainians to this sudden deal that was proffered?

[Tim Mack]

Well, you know, when Trump was elected, there was a sort of, I guess this is becoming a theme. There was a sort of hopeless optimism about whether the Ukrainians could deal with Trump in a more effective way than with the Biden administration. So there had been over the course of the last few, a lot of frustration, pent up anger towards the Biden administration from the Zelensky administration.

[Al Franken]

Is that because of delays, delays in slowly putting out weapon systems and Delaying them and waiting for, to make sure the Russians were kind of not going to start World War three.

[Tim Mack]

Right.

[Al Franken]

Us being nervous Nellies.

[Tim Mack]

Yes, that's right. That over the first few years of the war, there was a lot of frustration with the Biden administration over denying weapons systems, that they needed the delay of things like Permission to receive F16s and HIMARs and ATACMs, weapons, tanks.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Tim Mack]

Everything. The permission to even strike inside Russian territory where they were organizing in the open and the Ukrainians weren't given permission to attack them. So, you know, there was a lot of pent up frustration over the Biden administration and there was this line of thinking in Kyiv that, okay, the Biden administration, for whatever their support of Ukraine, that situation was leading not in a trajectory towards victory, but towards stalemate. Maybe the Trump administration could inject some productive chaos into the war that has turned out to be.

[Al Franken]

Well, it's been chaos.

[Tim Mack]

Hopeless. Yeah, it's been chaos. It hasn't been productive for the Ukrainians. I mean, you know, I'm in Taiwan right now. There's, there's a similar kind of line of thinking here, which is we can deal with a transactional president. In fact, a transactional president may even be better for our interests in the sense that if we provide something and get something in return, it solidifies an agreement that otherwise wouldn't be the case. Right. So in Taiwan, the Taiwanese would be only too happy to pay because right now the situation is of strategic ambiguity. Right. The United States has said, has not been very clear about whether it would step in to protect Taiwan if there was a Chinese attack. The Taiwanese say to themselves, okay, well, if we give up something, if we have a contract, if we have something binding, that's a better situation than, you know, than we have now. And so the Ukrainians have a similar concept, which is, okay, maybe we can give up some of our critical minerals in return for security guarantees or long term protection.

[Al Franken]

So bring them in, bring them into a thing, into an agreement that they can. But do you trust the Trump people at all? Because it doesn't seem to me that the Trump team is saying, you know, you're going to give us a certain percentage of these, these minerals and gas and oil. But that doesn't mean we're going to back you up.

[Tim Mack]

Right. That right now none of the agreements or the draft agreements or the negotiations have involved security guarantees, which is what Ukraine ultimately does needs. But what the way that Trump has been, if you want to even call it negotiating, is that he's been using Historical bonds of affection and alliances and friendships as if they were currency, as if they were leverage. Right. That's not how you treat friends and partners and neighbors. But all around the world, Trump has been taking these relationships, which have been built many times on shared sacrifices and even blood during wars, and exploiting these relationships for extracting either personal or national resources and concessions, only to turn around after there have been some concessions to demand more. It's an evil way to think about friendship and partnerships, I think.

[Al Franken]

So. The evil is on the part of Donald Trump. You would say, you're not going to get an argument from me, by the way.

[Tim Mack]

It's an evil way to look at relationships that others have built over decades of time and use that to draw and extract and pull from people who are, A, vulnerable and B, dependent on your friendship. If you were in any other kind of normal civil situation, civilian situation, where you saw someone acting like this to their family, friends or people they grew up with, you would do everything you could to disassociate yourself from that individual. And I think that's what's happening all around the world with Europe, Canada, even Asia rethinking. Can we rely on the United States at all? It's just been a few weeks of the Trump administration, but it's been incredibly, incredibly damaging to America's status in the world.

[Al Franken]

How surprised, how surprised were the folks in Ukraine about this move where he basically did a 180 and that Trump has suddenly changed sides and even saying that. That. That Ukraine started the war. And how shocking is this?

[Tim Mack]

It was more shocking than it should.

[Al Franken]

Have been in hindsight. Yeah, I suppose. But boy, oh, boy, Trump is, for.

[Tim Mack]

All of his many, many deficiencies, a very transparent person in terms of his emotions and his actions. And there is this long standing trend of people thinking, well, maybe it won't be so bad, or maybe he won't do what he says, or maybe he doesn't mean it. And I think he absolutely does. And if you act as if he means what he says because he's eventually going to get around to it, if he has the attention span, you'll be a lot less surprised. This optimism about Trump not being as destructive as he says he wants to be is really poorly placed. And the Ukrainians fell into that trap. I know a lot of Americans in the time between the election and the inauguration fell into that trap as well, but it's going to be that bad and worse, it's time now to be prepared and to organize and to act as if he's going to do everything he intends to do.

[Al Franken]

Now, what does that mean? He's going to do everything he says he's going to do, is he?

[Tim Mack]

Well, when he says that the press is an enemy of the people, that's what he means. And you've seen just over the course of the last week how he intends to marginalize the press and to turn the White House press corps into a sort of glorified propaganda team.

[Al Franken]

They're there for the first time in I don't know how long, in 50 years or so that they aren't going to have a press corps that is chosen to represent all the press in like when they have small meetings and now they're going to looks like they're going to be just having right wing.

[Tim Mack]

Groups, they're trying to hand pick who gets to cover the president as opposed to having a broad cross section of the most accessed media organization. But that's just one element of all of it. I think we're in for a period of turmoil in which this is just the very, very beginning. And no presidency is without its crises. And we know how Trump is going to act when a crisis hits. He's going to use that crisis as an opportunity to consolidate power. He's going to try to marginalize his perceived enemies, and he's going to weaponize the agencies of the state in order to crush his perceived opposition. It's our responsibility to make sure he doesn't get away with that.

[Al Franken]

Can I ask you where in Kyiv you live when you're there?

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, I'll try not to get too specific, Al.

[Al Franken]

Okay. All right. Do you live in one of those buildings? I heard you say you're on the 10th floor, is that right?

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, I live on the 11th floor.

[Al Franken]

11Th floor, sorry.

[Tim Mack]

Of an apartment building near the government quarter in the very center of Kyiv.

[Al Franken]

Oh, I know exactly where you are now.

[Tim Mack]

And, you know, living in Kyiv is a bizarre experience because 20% of the time, it's like any major urban, cosmopolitan place. You can go get a cup of coffee or get a meal, but there's always this sense of, you know, when's the next attack going to come? And they come pretty regularly.

[Al Franken]

And do you get air raid sirens?

[Tim Mack]

You get an actual kind of like haunting, dystopian 20th century air raid siren go on at all hours of the day and night.

[Al Franken]

So can you do it? Can you make the sound?

[Tim Mack]

I can't personally make the sound.

[Al Franken]

Sorry to put you in that.

[Tim Mack]

But it's like, you know, it's that classic World War II era or even the sort of tornado warnings that sometimes happen in the United States.

[Al Franken]

Exactly like that.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah. And it is. Okay, I was guessing it's more. It's more haunting than that, Al.

[Al Franken]

Okay, so let me ask you something. When you hear that.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah.

[Al Franken]

Do you go downstairs? Do you leave or you go like. It's not going to. The chances of it hitting me are so small that I'm just not going to go all down all 11 flights and then worse, go up 11 flights. Because I hear your elevator sometimes don't work.

[Tim Mack]

My elevator doesn't work, particularly when there's no power. So it's been. It's been good for my aerobic capabilities, but maybe not so great. So, I mean, there are air raid sirens and then there are air raid sirens. Right. In Ukraine, there's actually been a pretty good system for warning people in which they not only warn people, but if you go on social media, you can figure out, they put out the kinds of things that are being launched at Ukraine. So, you know, on smaller air raids, most people don't react. But then there are days when, you know, Russia is launching gigantic missiles at the city or hundreds of, of of kamikaze drones. And so there are days where you could make an assessment, okay, this is just a warning that something might be launched. And then there are days where you look at your phone and you think, okay, I've looked at this information. Something very serious is happening. I probably should go underground.

[Al Franken]

And is that in the subway or where are those underground?

[Tim Mack]

So underneath my apartment building, there's a parking garage. So that's occasionally a place I'll go. But when things get very serious, the subway, which is deep, deep underground, is the place where most people will congregate and kind of wait it out.

[Al Franken]

Now, do people have PTSD in Kyiv?

[Tim Mack]

Absolutely. I mean, it depends how you define ptsd. And what I would say is that it's the result of chronic exposure to ongoing stress. So when I hear an air raid siren, I won't freak out or start running around or do you know, or panic, but I do. You know, you do kind of. There is a physical reaction. You know, your blood pressure will rise, your heart rate will go up a little bit. Maybe not even super perceivably, you might tense up. But that, that happens six times a day, that'll happen 20 plus times a week. And over three years, you know, people react, and I react to all sorts of loud noises that sound like it could be the beginning of that air raid siren that we talked about. So things like cars accelerating have that sort of similar tone of increasing volume that it doesn't. It's obviously not an air ray siren, but your body is, in your mind, is prepared to react as if it is. So when we're talking about, do people have ptsd, I can't speak to, you know, everyone, but I could certainly say that people have been terribly traumatized over several years of being on edge and that cumulative chronic stress.

[Al Franken]

That sounds like what I was asking. Yeah, yeah.

[Tim Mack]

That's just talking about the civilian experience, not talking about the hundreds of thousands of people have now fought on the front lines. The injured veterans, the people who have sacrificed the most for the country during this period of war, who have seen far more worse than chronic stress. They've seen repeated acute stress and seen things that no human ought to experience.

[Al Franken]

After Trump said, okay, that Ukraine attacked Russia and that Zelensky is a dictator, what was the effect on the folks in. In Kiev and in Ukraine?

[Tim Mack]

You know, we. We have a story out on this at the Counter Offensive right now, my publication. The thing is that over the last few years, Ukrainian sentiment towards Zelensky has kind of steadily begin to deteriorate. You know, this is natural as it relates to politicians.

[Al Franken]

Sure. But still, where is he. Where is he now in terms of approval rating in. In Ukraine?

[Tim Mack]

He's in the. Let's. Let's just say around the mid-60s.

[Al Franken]

Okay, that's pretty.

[Tim Mack]

That's pretty good by American standards. That's very pretty good by American standards.

[Al Franken]

Shocking.

[Tim Mack]

But this is down from the 90s in, of course, in the first weeks of the war, of course.

[Al Franken]

Didn't Trump say it was 4%?

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, it was nowhere near 4%. Two out of every three Ukrainians still think he's doing. He's doing a good job.

[Al Franken]

Yeah.

[Tim Mack]

But what Trump's attack on Zelensky did probably gave him another 20% of approval rating in the sense that, you know, Ukrainians will be the first to criticize their president, but it's kind of like family, you know, only they will do it. Other people outside don't have that right. And so we have the story about the nicknames for Zelenskyy in Ukrainian politics on our site. And there is a sort of nickname that critics of Zelenskyy have been using for him over the last few years. And it's kind of. It's kind of wordplay to combine the word Zelenskyy with. With the Ukrainian word for dickhead, and it is zaloopa, and they've been calling him zalupa.

[Al Franken]

Okay, but this is an affectionate. Is that right? We love our. Our Zaloopa.

[Tim Mack]

Well, that. That's what they were talking. That that's what they were calling him before the Trump attack. And then after the Trump attack, they started calling him Savage, which is. Which is kind of our guy.

[Al Franken]

Okay, I see.

[Tim Mack]

They switch it up based on whether they're for him or against him. But they've got these series of nicknames that they has a foil.

[Al Franken]

If he has Trump's foil now, he's on the good side.

[Tim Mack]

Well, yeah, I mean, I think that Trump's attack has rallied Ukrainian society around Zelensky. Who are you to say he's a dictator, he's our leader, We've chosen him.

[Al Franken]

Basically, you're saying that Trump saying this bullshit, that this war was started by Ukraine and Zelensky's a traitor. All of that has raised their spirits. They've rallied around.

[Tim Mack]

They're angry about this totally untrue criticism of their president. Only they have the right to criticize their president. Not some guy from the United States and certainly not some guy who has no idea about anything related to Ukrainian politics. Firstly, I'd point out that the kind of online discourse we've been discussing calling the president a dickhead or whatever is only possible in a free society is the kind of satire. Al. As you know, that is the hallmark of free.

[Al Franken]

Free society.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah, exactly. Being able to call your president a dickhead is. Is something you could never do.

[Al Franken]

In Russia, for example, you don't probably hear a lot of affectionate calling him a dickhead. Putin.

[Tim Mack]

Thousands of people have been prosecuted for comments online in Russia criticizing Vladimir Putin. So that in and of itself is an indication of how untrue this dictator slanderer is when it comes to Ukraine. But the point that you made there about people rallying domestically against foreign criticism, I mean, Trump has this effect all around the world. His comments to Canadians have revitalized the Liberal Party of Canada, which had been looking to set for a terrible electoral defeat later this year to the Canadian Conservatives. His, his, his and JD Vance's support and Elon Musk's support of AFD led them, it seems, to a. A poor showing. This is the far right party in Germany, right?

[Al Franken]

Sure.

[Tim Mack]

Poor showing in the recent German.

[Al Franken]

I thought they came in second.

[Tim Mack]

They did come in second, but they came in below expectations and aren't going to be included in any kind of government.

[Al Franken]

Oh, okay, good.

[Tim Mack]

Going forward, even though they did come in second, Trump has this effect around the world. He's kind of forced other people to rally domestically and against the United States, which may be good in a lot of these countries for certain players but certainly bad for the United States standing in the world.

[Al Franken]

And we're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back with Tim Mack of the Counteroffensive. And.

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[Al Franken]

And we are back with Tim Mack from the counteroffensive. What will this summit between Zelensky and Trump, what will that be about this week? He's coming in on Friday and we're taping this, I should say, on. Well, it's Thursday where you are, right?

[Tim Mack]

That's right.

[Al Franken]

Thursday morning. And here it's Wednesday night.

[Tim Mack]

Look, I think the Ukrainians realize, as does anyone with a pulse, really, that Trump isn't interested in a good deal. He's just interested in some deal which he can then go around and say was the greatest deal of all time. So when the Ukrainians arrive, they're going to give Trump a deal, some deal, something to work with. From what we can tell, there isn't a lot of substance to the deal. It's just a deal to continue negotiations about future deals.

[Al Franken]

But this is about the minerals.

[Tim Mack]

This is about critical minerals. They have, you know, according to both sides, they have reach some agreement on critical minerals. But it is really a deal to continue talking about future deals. That, that there's, there's a conceptual agreement that hasn't been ironed out and will need to be ironed out in the future. Now, Ukraine hasn't really gotten anything for, for this, but it's also not in substance, giving up anything in the near term. So what they're going to be talking about in Washington, D.C. and what the Zelensky administration is going to want is to find some agreement which gives Ukraine long term security guarantees. And the question you asked earlier, which is, can you depend on the United States or in particular, can you depend on Trump, is a really valid one. Trump has gone around making deals in his first term, which he has promptly ripped up arbitrarily in a second. You think about the free trade agreement he made with Canada, which he, upon entering office, immediately ripped up and started threatening. Yeah. And threatening both Canada and Mexico with new tariffs, new taxes. That's evidence point number one as to how he views the deals he himself negotiates. And so there is a big question, should be a big question among American allies about whether you can, whether you can trust the word of this man.

[Al Franken]

Well, he seems to change where he is. And I just thought that the negotiations and what's come out of Trump's mouth has been shocking. You know, clearly Russia was the aggressor. There's no question. Even Defense Secretary Hegseth said today that he didn't know who attacked whom, which is absolutely amazing. And it is frightening that such transparent lies are what they feel like they can get away with.

[Tim Mack]

Well, I was in Kyiv the day the invasion started, like I said, and I know exactly who attacked who. The Russians obviously attacked Ukraine.

[Al Franken]

Okay.

[Tim Mack]

It's not as if Hegseth knows, of course, who attacked who. He just can't say it because Trump refuses to acknowledge it. And the entire administration is falling over backwards not to in any way contradict the person at the top, even if they know it's a lie. This is the start of a trend that is, that is deeply, deeply worrying. These are the sorts of things you only see in democracies that are failing or authoritarian governments.

[Al Franken]

Right. This is 1984 kind of stuff.

[Tim Mack]

Yes. You have to deny the truth that's before your very eyes, which you've personally witnessed and you personally know to be true. You must deny it. That's kind of what we're seeing here. Right? That's, that's exactly what we're seeing here is everyone knows what the truth is. Can't say it because you might hurt the President's feelings. And that, that's, that's, that's crazy.

[Al Franken]

So what do Ukrainians think is going to happen in terms of the US Backing Ukraine? I mean, I'm, I wouldn't have any expectations of the United States if I were, were Ukraine right now.

[Tim Mack]

You know, you ask a hundred Ukrainians, you'll get a hundred different answers. They're a very opinionated group of folks.

[Al Franken]

What are they most afraid of?

[Tim Mack]

I think they're most afraid their sacrifices that they've made for years will be in vain. I think they're most afraid of the people who have died for Ukraine's sovereignty having died. And there being a resolution that removes Ukraine's sovereignty anyways. I think that's the greatest fear. The greatest fear is not to continue to sacrifice, nor is it even for many Ukrainians to die for their cause. I think there are a lot of people willing and showing, by the way, their willingness to die for a cause. I think their fear is that it will ultimately have been for nothing. That if the resolution to the war leads to Ukraine not being an independent country or an independent country in name only, all of the things that have happened, millions of refugees fleeing the country, the thousands of people who have died, the many thousands more who have been wounded without limbs, with their minds torn, that that will have been a gigantic sacrifice only to yield a worse situation than before the full scale invasion.

[Al Franken]

And where are Ukrainians in terms of thinking how pessimistic are they? Have the people of Ukraine said, I see what Trump is doing and I am despairing for what is going to happen? I know you say that 100 Ukrainians have 100 different outlook.

[Tim Mack]

If we can generalize, the Ukrainians are not known for a sunny disposition in general. We had a story on the counter offensive recently about the so called resting Slavic face, that Ukrainians don't smile a lot. Ukrainians don't smile a lot. So we did a story recently about why it is that they don't smile very much even pre war. So it's a cultural thing. They view smiling as a sort of suspicious and inauthentic thing, especially when expressed, expressed towards people they don't know well. And so they've been very realistic and very kind of neutral about their expectations for the future. They've kind of just grit their teeth and gotten to work about what, what needs to happen next. I think there's a real expectation among most of the people I'm talking to in Ukraine that, that the war is going to go on. For quite a deal longer that the Trump Putin negotiations aren't going to yield a sustainable and just peace. And what that's going to mean is.

[Al Franken]

More fighting well and not yielding a lasting and just peace. What are other outcomes that are short of that? Is it going to be okay? You know, the US Will not back Ukraine, but the Europeans will. So the Europeans will come. What percentage of the weaponry are the Europeans supplying now as compared to earlier in the war?

[Tim Mack]

The majority of the weaponry and funds since the beginning of the war have come from Europe, not from the United States. So it's about a 6040 split. That said, you can't lose 40% of a particular contribution and proceed like, you know, if you're running a business and you lose 40% of net revenues overnight.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Tim Mack]

You know, that's a catastrophe. Right. I don't think that there's any way for Ukraine to continue its level of effective resistance against the Russians without Europe massively. It would need to stepping increase, it would need to dramatically increase its contribution. And frankly, Europe doesn't have the capacity, it's been caught over the last few years very flat footed. Its defense industry is poorly developed as compared to the United States. It doesn't have the manufacturing capability to, to churn out the kinds of arms that are needed on the front lines, things like artillery shells and, you know, mass numbers of drones, armored vehicles, tanks, things like that that are necessary to fight a war. The United States has a broad and effective and efficient defense productive capability that the Europeans currently lack but are now scrambling to try to fix and build up. So that's a real issue that the Europeans may have the will, but they don't have the productive capabilities to provide the weaponry necessary. In that way, the United States is still indispensable to Ukraine. And that's why you're seeing Zelensky go to the White House on Friday. He needs the United States on his side.

[Al Franken]

And can their relationship be, and I did not say repaired, but can it be put into such a state that, that Trump will at least give Ukraine a chance at a certain point?

[Tim Mack]

I wouldn't even consider it a relationship. I would consider it. I mean, do you, do you have a relationship with the barista you purchase coffee from? It's a transaction, right? It's not a friendship, it's not an alliance, not even a partnership. It's a exchange. And with Trump, very often it's an extraction. It's a pillaging of people who are desperate, who are literally dying by the day and need help. I wouldn't even call it a relationship, I would call it blackmail and extortion of someone who is trying their best to maintain their country's existence, very existence, and then taking advantage of that. Trump is taking advantage of that to extract things, to boost, frankly, his ego because the deal itself doesn't have any substance to it for the time being.

[Al Franken]

Is there any danger of a. Trump has said, I could end this in one day. And is there any danger in Trump putting some kind of deal together where there is a, quote, peace and it's really just Russia buying time?

[Tim Mack]

It's not only that there is some danger to that, but that is the danger, you know, is the capital letters T H E danger. I mean, the big fear has always been that Trump would create a so called peace that was super advantageous for the Russians so that they could rearm and invade again. That looks to be where we're headed at this moment. It looks like the Trump administration will cut out the Ukrainians, negotiate some separate agreements with the Russians, say they solved everything, give the Russians every advantage in returning to the battlefield at some future point of their choosing, and leave the Ukrainians as weak and vulnerable as possible. That seems to be right now, the way that things are headed. And it will only lead to more suffering, more war, more death in the long term. And you know, by the way, I think the Ukrainians understand that too. They're not willing to delay to tomorrow the fight that needs to happen today. So you're going to find Ukraine to be quite skeptical of such an agreement. And by the way, the war doesn't end just because Trump says so. The war will end when there's some sort of sustainable and just agreement. And that doesn't even seem, we're not even talking about that now. Right? We're not, it's not even on the table at the moment. And that's why I feel like that the end of the war is not in sight, not inside, not. I don't, I don't see us closing in on some agreement that would end this war. I could be wrong, of course, I've been known to be wrong. But I just, I just don't see that, you know, I, I don't see that this war will likely end or hostilities will end until authoritarianism collapses in Russia. That, that's, that's really the, the only way for Putin, whoever his successor is in Russia's imperial ambitions to be removed from the table is for authoritarianism itself, which demands expansion and a sort of foreign enemy. That's the only way to end this situation.

[Al Franken]

But Trump has said that he was going to do it in one day. Right.

[Tim Mack]

We're still waiting for that now.

[Al Franken]

I understand that, but this is something he's sort of invested in. And so what I worry about is something that seems like a very short period, and then it's Russia regrouping. And that sounds like what you're expecting.

[Tim Mack]

Vladimir Putin will not suddenly, at whatever resolution is involved, will not suddenly think to himself, okay, well, that was a good shot. I guess we'll move on to other.

[Al Franken]

Yeah.

[Tim Mack]

Dictators are used to getting what they want. Okay. And this will be a thorn in his side until the day dies is that he wasn't able to do this. By the way, it will be a. You know, it will be this kind of reminder for any subsequent leader whoever comes after Putin. And there will be a day for them to try to achieve what Putin never could, which is to capture Kiev or to bring the Ukrainians into their sphere of influence. This is something that is a generational challenge, and Ukrainians realize that. The thing is that the Trump administration just wants to kind of sweep it under the rug and ignore it and pretend that it's solved, but there is no genuine effort to resolve this war.

[Al Franken]

Okay, well, we're going to. Zelenskyy is going to be there in a day and a half, I guess. What do you predict happens in those that day?

[Tim Mack]

From the Zelensky administration's point of view, what they need to accomplish is to secure some sort of guarantee of security that cannot be easily reversed, whether that's European peacekeepers with an American backstop or NATO membership or something like that, where they have guarantees that they will not be invaded again. And if they don't have that, then any supposed peace is just a temporary.

[Al Franken]

So the best thing that can happen right now is some kind of stasis where there's a peacekeeping force. Would that be a European force or be.

[Tim Mack]

Yeah. So European countries like the UK And France have indicated that they'd be willing to send troops in a peacekeeping force, but I'm not sure that that's sufficient for the Ukrainians to feel secure. One thing that's. That's not often discussed is, is, you know, we presume that Zelensky is. Is a dictator, can just do whatever he wants. He can't. He has domestic political pressures just like any other democratic politician. If he signs a deal that doesn't make Ukrainians feel secure, they will protest him, they will vote him out of office. And there are certainly a lot of angry people in Ukraine, who would be against giving up the fight?

[Al Franken]

Well, he has said that he would give up the presidency if he got.

[Tim Mack]

Security guarantees and end the war. It's a sort of performative thing. But that's not on the table right now, at least as far as I understand. It was one of those comments that make him look quite good, but really cost him nothing. That said, Zelensky needs to get something substantial in which Ukrainians can be confident in if he's going to sign a deal. He needs to be able to go to his own domestic population, say these sacrifices that you've made over the last few years have been worth it because I have been able to secure this deal that ensures our continued survival and peace in the long term. And if he can't go to his people and say that, then he's going to have a lot of domestic problems.

[Al Franken]

If he can't go to his people and say that that's right, if he.

[Tim Mack]

Cannot go to his people and assure them that they will be safe in the long term, that their families can come back from abroad, that, you know, business can invest in, the economy can start to recover, then what was it all for? You know, what was all this suffering and death and panic and chaos for? Was it just to end up in a situation where they'll get attacked again in a matter of years? By the way, I mean, that situation prohibits Ukrainian recovery. Right. And no, no businesses will invest in Ukraine if they think another war might be just around the corner. It will keep Ukraine stifled and held back for years and years to come.

[Al Franken]

And do you see any hope of a different outcome?

[Tim Mack]

There's always hope. I think our conversation has been about hopeless optimism, but there are some reasons for optimism to include the Russian economies overheating and the real problems in inflation.

[Al Franken]

They are having really big problems with their economy right now, like 20%.

[Tim Mack]

They spent three years pouring money into a system that has yielded dead people.

[Al Franken]

And how many Russians have died, do they think? I hear something like 800,000. Is that possible?

[Tim Mack]

I think that may be the total casualty figures, wounded and killed. But more Russians have died in the last three years than were killed over a decade of war in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That, if you'll recall, was one of the major contributing factors to the collapse of the Soviet Union. And so this war may yet be won, but not on the battlefield. There are going to be enormous pressures in Russian civil society on the domestic front, as disinflation hits, as bread and butter get more expensive, and as the country fully comes to grips with how many people have died and been injured as a result of this totally senseless and pointless war.

[Al Franken]

Well, I hope that's that leads to something that can be a hopeful outcome and I hope that happens soon.

[Tim Mack]

I'm with you on that.

[Al Franken]

Well, thank you, thank you for coming to to us today from Taipei. And when do you go back to to Ukraine?

[Tim Mack]

I'm headed back there this weekend, so I'll be there early next week.

[Al Franken]

Well, safe travels and thank you very much for sharing your wisdom on this war.

[Tim Mack]

Thanks Al. I really appreciate being on your show.

[Al Franken]

Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Kottke, the great Leo Katk Conkey. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.

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