A (30:47)
This is not new. So first off, this is like the first time you're hearing about recursive self improvement. This is a known research path. So if you've ever been to my Intro to AI class that I teach every month, or heard me give keynotes on the state of AI in business, or you know, taken any of my courses online, I often talk about the dimensions of AI progress and the different pursuits that labs are making to make these models smarter, more generally capable. So things like computer use, expanded context windows, memory, multimodality reasoning capabilities. Recursive self improvement is one of the dimensions I always feature because this has been a research challenge for years. It is also one of the things that leads to a lot of the sci fi fears of fast takeoffs of these models. So this again is not a new concept at all. But what is it? If it is new to you, what is it? So if an AI system gets good enough that it can meaningly help design the next better version of itself and that loop keeps going, that is basically what we're talking about. So it is a loop of this recursive self improving system so the AI system can propose changes to its own architecture, training data and training processes. Those changes produce a more capable new version. The new version is even better at proposing further improvements. And then you just keep repeating the danger comes when we start to rely less on the human in the loop that's monitoring this self improvement. So you can imagine this applied to your own work. Like any strategies, campaigns, workflows, like right now, they only get better when you make them better. You look at data, you analyze that data, you look at the campaign performance, you look at a B test and then you go in and you make these improvements. Now you might talk to like an AI assistant about it. You may say hey here's what I'm seeing the ChatGPT, like how could I improve this? But like you are putting time and energy into improving the outcome of something, the behavior of something. In this scenario you basically start being removed from that loop. So imagine you're running a marketing campaign on top of what we're running a big make on promotion day. So I like think about event ticket sales. Imagine an AI agent that has access to all the data the human does and maybe more data. And it's watching everything. It's looking at the email performance, the ad buy performance, the messaging, what's resonating with people. And unbeknownst to us, it's just constantly changing them. It's evolving the emails, it's rewriting different emails, it's changing the send time, it's changing the personalization, maybe changing the language. So it's like bilingual, like it's just doing things and the human is maybe completely uninvolved, like we're just turning, like just go do your thing. That's the premise here, except applied to AI models. So when this happens you have a far greater risk of misalignment. You run into potential consolidation of power. So like a smaller number of tech companies who learn how to do this, benefit from this and maybe don't share that information out, the disruption of jobs becomes far more likely. Like a faster disruption to industries that are knowledge work related. Do complex decision making require constant optimization, experimentation? You start getting to autonomous campaign managers. Kind of like I said, they're doing the strategy, they're doing the experiments, they're allocating the budget, they're iterating on the creative, all without the human involvement. So we're talking about recursive self improvement for AI models. But you crack the code on how to do it for AI models. Everything else just fits dominoes. Like everything else falls. Like the AI model stuff is harder than us running marketing campaigns. Like it's, you know, so then you start to think about, and again like this is this, this is stuff that's like 2026 stuff, brand risk. So if you have self optimizing systems, they might Learn highly aggressive task tactics that work in the short term, but damage trust and violate policy. You might run into regulatory risks where you're still responsible. You and your company are still responsible for the decisions the tools make, but they're able to make decisions without you. And then data privacy, like, if you don't know what it's doing, what it's accessing, how it's learning these things. So I was kind of like, laughing. The reason I surfaced this as a main topic for this week, Mike, was it was like, by Tuesday of last week, I was like, oh, like we. We changed from super intelligence to recursive self improvement, like it was. And I, I, funny, I went into Nano Banana and I was like, I couldn't remember what that meme was called where, like, the guy's holding his girlfriend's hand and the other girl's walking by and he's like, checking out the other girl. Yeah. And I was like, do that meme where the guy's holding his girlfriend's hand but looking at the other girl. Make the girlfriend. Super intelligence makes the other thing, like recursive self improvement. And it did it. Like, you go on my Twitter profile and like, see this? I tweeted this and it created like the perfect meme. And that was how I felt. It's like all of a sudden everybody's just like, all right, let's talk about recursive self improvement. So you mentioned, Mike, the. The new Alignment blog or research blog from OpenAI. The first post is hello world. That's the title. The very first line of the first post of the research blog from OpenAI says, At OpenAI, we research how we can safely develop and deploy increasingly AI, and in particular AI capable of recursive self improvement. So I was like, well, that's intentional. Like, there you are very blatantly indicating that you have made progress in this direction. And you are now needing a blog that talks about this. That is the lead of your top post. Then the one you mentioned about Eric Smith. So he was talking again, former CEO and chairman of Google, he said. So I pulled the transcript on this. We'll put the YouTube link in there. So the question is, what happens over time? You have language, agents and reasoning. Isn't that what we do, meaning humans? We do stuff. We communicate, we do actions. The San Francisco, meaning Silicon Valley consensus is that at some point that stuff comes together and you get what is called technically recursive self improvement. Recursive self improvement is when it is learning on its own. This is not true today Today when you set up one of these data centers you have to tell it what to learn. There's lots of evidence this is coming though for computers to generate conjectures, discover new facts. Looks like it is very close. Many people believe there will be new math design in the next year, meaning 2026. So we collectively as an industry believe this is going to happen soon. If you ask a simple swad of people from like San Francisco, they will say two years which is really soon. If you ask me for years it happens very quickly. But I think he said more like probably four to five years or. Yeah, and so he, he so Eric Schmidt, if you haven't followed him, is, is very involved in overall AI policy but specifically related to defense in the US and so he said I want. And Henry, meaning Henry Kissinger, his co author before he passed, certainly wanted to be built with American values and human values. And then the other thing, Mike. So again this all happened in like a you know, 24, 40 hour period. We see a blog or a tweet from Anna Goldie who's a former Google DeepMind researcher, worked in chip design at Google. She tweets excited to announce that Azalea Miracle and I are launching Recursive Intelligence, a frontier AI lab creating a recursive self improving loop between AI and the hardware that fuels it. Today chip design takes two to three years and requires thousands of human experts. We will reduce that to weeks. This will be incredibly hard. We co founded the machine Learning for Systems team at Google Brain. There we built Alpha Chip, a reinforcement learning agent for chip placement. And then she went on to say our immediate goal is to dramatically accelerate chip design. Next we plan to design chips end to end given a machine learning workload unlocking a Cambrian explosion of custom silicon. Finally we will close the recursive loop. We will build our own chips, train our own models and co evolve them on a path to Superintelligence. AI design better chips. Chips train better AI. They raised, they announced the raising of 35 million recently valuing that company at 750 million. So what does this all mean, Mike? Accelerated AI progress toward AGI and Superintelligence, which is what we're talking about all the time. Accelerated risk of the fast takeoff that people worry a lot about that these things just self improve beyond our ability to understand what they're doing. Accelerated likelihood of the labs working more closely together as it becomes more tangible. So all again keep in mind OpenAI anthropic Google. These people sometimes are roommates the researchers like. As we recently Found out with Shoto and Orkash. They are certainly often friends hanging out the same parties. They talk. If a safety research of anthropic knows that they've unlocked it and they're a few months away from doing this, you better believe they're telling their friends at Google DeepMind and that they're talking to each other. And at some point, if it becomes obvious to them that the milestone is near or already achieved, it is far more likely these labs actually start communicating more closely because this is the thing they're all worried about if this happens, and it seems like it's going to. This also accelerates the likelihood of political divide, AI regulations becoming reality very quickly, and negative responses from society. This morning I saw a tweet from Bernie Sanders. Again political Both sides are saying everything. They have no idea which side to pick. Like is this good? Is it bad? Is it going to destroy jobs? Is it going to ruin human life? Like everybody's trying to figure it out. So Bernie Sanders this morning, the greatest challenge now facing humanity is whether AI and robotics are designed to improve human life or whether these technologies will undermine democracy and privacy and make the wealthiest people on earth even richer and more powerful. And this leads to like we saw past week, Google DeepMind has an open job for a research scientist to explore to explore the profound impact of what comes after AGI. Key responsibilities include defining critical research questions within these domains, collaborating with cross functional teams to develop innovative solutions and conducting experiments to advance our mission. Spearheading research on the influence of AGI on political institutions, economics, law and human relationships. Developing and conducting in depth studies to analyze AGI societal impacts across key domains. Looking at, let's see, create a map of potential outcomes of what happens when we achieve AGI and then building and refining measurement infrastructure and evaluation frameworks for a system evaluation of AGI societal effects. So like again, we're spending the time on this main topic because I think everyone has to understand this is a major change. If they're right, if Eric Schmidt is right, if Google's need for post AGI world researchers is right, if all the other labs that are talking about recursive self improvement are right, then the path to AGI and superintelligence accelerates and all of these other things come with it. So this is actually a very pivotal piece of all the other topics we talk about.