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Ayo Akimulere
Dude, did you order the new iPhone 17 Pro?
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Got it from Verizon. The best 5G network in America. I never looked so good.
Ayo Akimulere
You look the same.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
But with this camera, everything looks better. Especially me.
Ayo Akimulere
You haven't changed your hair in 15 years.
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Ayo Akimulere
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Ayo Akimulere
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Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
The Athletic FC welcome to the Athletic FC podcast with me, Ayo Akimulere. Halfway through the Champions League phase and one pattern is emerging, the dominance of the Premier League. But is that a problem for the balance of the Champions League? Alright with us today we have Michael Cox. I've also got James Horncastle as well. Now, before we get into the chat, what's been the standout moment of this week's Champions League action, gents. What are you thinking, Michael?
Ayo Akimulere
Definitely Mickey Van de Ven's goal against Copenhagen. It was one of those. I wasn't watching this match. I was watching Liverpool, Real Madrid. And when I heard about it, everyone's like, this is the best goal you'll see for ages. And when you hear about something and then watch it, sometimes it's underwhelming. That wasn't the case here. It was just so good. And the thing I liked was he had no right to shoot from that position. He absolutely should have squared it to Kolo Moane. I think it was in the middle. But if you've run from your own box, you do get the license to shoot. And I'm pleased he did, because it was a brilliant goal. I know he scored one like that before for Tottenham, but I think this one was a better one.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
It was against Manchester United, where he basically galloped straight through. I think he ended up passing it in the end as opposed to shooting. But, I mean, what a hybrid or whatever. Is he a hybrid defender? I don't even know who he is. But with goals like that, audacious, to say that least. What are you saying, James? Best moment?
James Horncastle
Well, I had the sort of goal show on, and it was watching Bruges, Barcelona just scratching your head and wondering why Barcelona are playing this high line still and getting caught out over and over again. And Lamina Ma not really being able to dig them out of trouble. Despite being the best player on the pitch by an absolute mile. His goal in Bruges was up there, I would say, with Mickey Van de Ven didn't run as far, but just the control and coordination that he has over his body, the kind of telepathy that he has with Pedri, it's just a beautiful goal. And, yeah, I. Just. As good as he is, I think playing this way, I just don't think Barcelona can win the Champions League.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Well, let's move on, because after four games of this season's Champions League, four of the top eight sides are Premier League teams. Michael, what do you think? Is the Premier League dominance a bit of an issue?
Ayo Akimulere
Yeah, I mean, I think it's probably more of an issue on paper than it is on the pitch. If you look at the. I mean, the recent years of the Champions League, it's not even a situation like towards the end of the first decade of the century where England was regularly getting three of the four semi finalists. I think the English sides have a huge financial advantage. I think you do see that in the League phase, but I don't think we've ever got close really in the last few years to the latter stages and thinking, wow, there's just so many English teams in this. In that sense, I think they probably have underachieved a little bit considering their financial dominance. But to be honest, I think the Premier League's power over the other leagues, I think it's more of an issue for the domestic leagues rather than it is for the Champions League. I just think when you watch a mid table La Liga game or mid table Serie A game, I don't think they're on the same level as a mid table Premier League game. And that's even despite the fact I don't think the Premier League has been that entertaining so far this season. But, yeah, in terms of the Champions League, I think there's some issues. I think there's some issues with the new format, but I must admit it's not particularly the English dominance that I think is a problem right now.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Yeah, I mean, I guess we've got these really strong Premier League teams and I guess the intensity of the leagues are, some might say are different. James. But the likes of Real Madrid have won this tournament several times. Is there still a case in point for the quality that some of these European teams do have? In Spain?
James Horncastle
For instance, Madrid are the richest club by revenue in Europe, but that's because they've been sort of leveraging their aura, their success. They have been very well run. You know, I was at the Bernabeu a fortnight ago for Juventus, Real Madrid, and that's the best stadium in Europe. Better, in my opinion even than Spurs Stadium. And it guarantees them nearly 400 million in revenue alone before you get to TV rights, before you get to commercial deals as well. But it feels very odd to me that Madrid, the most successful Champions League club by some distance, more than double the Champions League titles than anybody else, are almost like the resistance. The royalty of Europe are the resistance. They're the only thing I think they are King Canute stopping the tide coming in, which has been the Premier League. And I think Michael's point about the standard of the other leagues is very relevant to this discussion because you have two things that are affecting the competitive balance of the Champions League and those domestic leagues, and that is the Premier League is the richest league in the world by a distance. You know, that means that it's not inevitable a Premier League team will win the Champions League or there'll be an all English final, but it gives them a better chance than the other leagues have, but we have international TV rights now exceeding domestic TV rights in the Premier League. And the Champions League has been expanded in the last year. And that has meant UEFA has been able to go to the marketplace all over the world and say, we're giving you more games, pony up, give us more money. And this has weakened the other leagues because the budgets that international broadcasters have to pay for La Liga to pay for Serie A to pay for Bundesliga is less. If the Premier League is so expensive and the Champions League is so expensive now. I mean, to circle back on this, I would say that it's not the Premier League's problem that it has been so well run that is making so much more money than everybody else. It is UEFA's problem, I think in the short to mid term for the competitive balance of their league. They are relying on Madrid really and a state wealth club like PSG to be able to give the appearance of competitive balance in what is the crown jewel of all of UEFA's competitions.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Well, the Premier League, Michael, have lost three of their, what, 24 collective games so far. English sides don't face each other in the league phase. I mean, have they got an easy league phase the most? If you look at it in that context?
Ayo Akimulere
Yeah, I think that's a really good point, Ayo. And it's the same sometimes when you get to the first knockout stage when English teams can't face each other. So you end up with a team from a lower ranked league, always ends up getting the English team or the Spanish team basically one of the big boys. I mean, you probably can't separate the situation at the moment from the introduction of this league phase. I mean, there's just more games, there's eight rather than six. There's a wider variety of teams in the, in the competition. So there's more chance that we saw with Chelsea last night. Okay, Chelsea didn't win, but often they're playing teams who I think probably wouldn't have sneaked into the previous Champions League competition. And eight games rather than six, I think basically means, you know, the cream rises to the top. And with the Premier League's financial dominance, I think there's more chance they're all going to finish if not in the top eight, but probably in the first 16 places. So at least they'll be seeded for the playoff round. So I don't think the Champions League is particularly entertaining in the league phase in terms of the top sides, really. I think the action is probably more exciting for if you look at some of the outsiders. And we saw, for example, Club Bruges get a result against Barcelona yesterday, which you wouldn't have expected. I'm still trying to get my head around the format of the Champions League. It's almost like the key thing is whether you finish 24th or 25th, because that's whether you sneak into the next round, the top eight go through. I find it slightly difficult as a neutral to really care who's seeded for the next round, because it's a home and away thing anyway. So it's. Yeah, I don't think it's just an English side problem. I think it's to a certain extent a problem with the format, which I don't think is producing great drama, to be honest.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Well, Michael, I tell you what, you can go online and check me out. Giving the format to the world on UEFA right now. I mean, I'm still kind of perplexed by it, even though I did the explainer myself. But we tried to keep it as concise as possible. But, yeah, we've had the same problem from so many people saying, not quite sure how the format works, but I'm hoping it's going to land at some point. James, I just want to bring us back to your original point in terms of this being sort of UEFA's doing, in terms of the dominance of the Premier League, the fact that we've got TV rights that, you know, are going straight to the Premier League, weakening, therefore, the kind of money going into leagues in Spain or in Italy, for instance. And I want to bring in that word coefficient, because Nick Miller writes in the Athletic that perhaps the extra Champions League play shouldn't go to the best league, that is the Premier League right now, but to other leagues who might benefit long term. What are your thoughts on that?
James Horncastle
That is interesting. I mean, I think it's going to be easier for the Premier League to be rewarded and get that fifth place, or as we've seen this year, have six teams in it, just because, you know, I mean, if you look at the last decade, you know, you've had seven Premier League finalists in the Champions League, you've had two all English finals. That has replicated itself in the Europa League as well. Seven finalists, two all English finals. And obviously, if you win that competition, you get into the Champions League. And, you know, we've seen in the Conference League as well. Conference League has only been around for four years, but it has been won by West Ham and Chelsea in that time. So it does feel to me that the Premier League is set up to top this coefficient, really? Because, yeah, I think when UEFA came up with the Conference League, it was an unintended consequence that top five leagues would win it, you know, so, you know, Italian teams have got to finals in the case of Roman Fiorentina, and that has allowed City A to really gain ground and overtake the other leagues. You know, I think City A, you know, had five Champions League teams last year because they topped the coefficients and their second this year. And that's because they've been able to game that Conference League system, being competitive in that, to get into the Europa League and then using the experience that they've had in reaching Conference League finals to get to Europa League finals as well. But I just think that the Premier League should be winning those competitions, those second and third tier competitions, just because, you know, West Ham, by revenue, just by the geographic accident of being a Premier League team rather than a La Liga Serie A Bundesliga team and the geographic accident of being in London are one of the richest clubs in the world by revenue. When palace, for example, got demoted controversially from the Europa League to the Conference League, I was like, they should be actually happy because they're a still in Europe and by revenue they will be in a better position to win a European trophy than they perhaps would have been in the Europa League in their first experience in Europe. It doesn't matter if the competition is called Conference League, it's still a European trophy. Still something that fans can go around saying, we have won a European trophy. So, yeah, I think that's an interesting correction made by Nick A Corrective for the future. But can you handicap the Premier League? It kind of acknowledges that you've got a problem.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
What do you think, Michael? Can you handicap the Premier League by saying, you know what, you are the strongest, but actually we'll let someone else have more teams in it now.
Ayo Akimulere
Yeah, I just don't really think this rule makes much sense, to be honest. I kind of like the idea with it, so I don't want to be too critical. But actually when you see it play out, it is just the big league is going to get more places and just increase their dominance of it and you end up in slightly weird situations where you know it's beneficial for. For example, it could be beneficial for Milan if in to do really well because they increase the Italian coefficient and Italy might get an extra place. And on one hand that's quite funny and on the other hand it doesn't really make much sense. See, I don't really like this extra spot for a best performing nation. I think it really should be based on yeah, solely on a club basis. So yeah, I would happily have this scrapped. And what do you do with the extra place? You know, hopefully that would go down to 10th or 11th best league in Europe or whatever. But yeah, it is a slightly strange rule.
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This is the Athletic FC podcast with IO Agamolere.
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Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Last season, three of the four semi finalists finished in the top four. During the league phase, it was only Liverpool who finished top, who were then knocked out in the round of 16. James PSG, who also finished 15th, actually ended up winning the tournament. How important is this league phase? Let's be honest.
James Horncastle
I recently did the audiobook for a new book by Carlo Ancelotti, which is about all of his sort of Champions League campaigns, and he'd sort of worked out what you needed to do in order to progress from the group stages, which is try and win your first four games. And then you might be able to rest and rotate. You can look at the lay of the land a little bit and make your decisions based on that. And this time it's sort of okay, we've got two more games. We don't play the same opponent twice. It's really higgledy piggledy in terms of the standard of opponent you're playing. So there is that temptation sometimes, as we saw with Real Madrid last year when they played, I think Lille or Brest. What do we do here? Do we actually rest and rotate players in a way that we maybe wouldn't have done in the group stage? But if you look at last year, three of the top four were the final four of the Champions League. And it was a surprise that the English champions, Liverpool, were the exception. The ones that had won the league phase. If you can win the league phase, what a thing to win. So we need to see if it becomes a trend this year. Inter, for example, are still in the top four as they were this time last year. But you sort of look at their opponents. They've played Kai Rat, they've played Union, St. Gilois, they've played Monaco. The format is strange like this. I mean, spurs, for example. You look at who spurs have played. Villarreal, Bodo Glimt, Monaco and Copenhagen. Like this doesn't feel Champions League to me. And we're sort of in mid November. It's odd. All we've got to go on is last year when three of the top four reach the reach the semi finals and see if that bears out again.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Yeah, Michael, this is the second year of this format and this week we've seen Liverpool versus Real Madrid. Next week we'll be seeing Arsenal versus Bayern Munich. Big ties. And you know, when I learned about the league face with UEFA, they said this is what they wanted the league face to represent big games, big clubs coming together at an early stage in the tournament. But how much is actually riding on these games?
Ayo Akimulere
That's the question I was asking myself midway through Liverpool, Real Madrid, which actually wasn't a bad game at all. I thought it was quite entertaining. There was some good narrative, of course, with Trent Alexander Arnold. The game was exciting and it was obviously very close. It was 10 Liverpool win. But I did kind of start wondering midway through, like, you know, what's riding on this? What does it really mean? And I think the reality is that by the end of the competition or by the End of the league phase, I should say. I expect Liverpool and Real Madrid will both be in the top eight, and if not, they'll almost certainly be in the top 16 and therefore get a good draw for the next round. So, I mean, when you factor in the fact there's 36 teams rather than 32, there's eight games rather than six, and then you've still got the playoff round before we get to the round of 16, I think there's something like 80% more games than there was in the old group system. And that basically means that every game on average has 80% less meaning. So when it gets to the final couple of games, I think it becomes clear. And if you're neutral, like me, who just wants to watch a, you know, good game with something riding on it and you know what it means, I think it takes a while, really, before you get to that point. You know, if you're just following one club, it's probably more exciting that your team plays a wider variety of opponents. And if you watch a kind of goals show thing, there's more games, there's always something going on, it's great. But if you just want to pick one game and know what it means, it does feel, at this stage, it feels to me a little bit meaningless. And you could say, okay, it's the same when you're 10 games into a domestic league campaign. You know, those games don't mean much in isolation, but, you know, this is a new format. It's a new format of having replaced the group stage, which was not perfect and there were lots of games that were dead rubbers. But you could pretty much always find something fun to watch and something meaningful to watch. And that's the bit I'm struggling with at this point. And of course, we don't get finished until after Christmas, which is, well, feels quite a way off at the moment.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
But then how do you equate that? The strategy of a team like Arsenal who play a full team they've got against a team like Slavia Prague, technically. And as you can see, Arsenal are now top of the League phase, you know, haven't lost the match so far. Do you feel a team like that is basically getting it out of the way and then might just take their foot off the gas a little later on? Michael?
Ayo Akimulere
I think so. I mean, I was a little bit surprised that they didn't rotate a little bit more for that game, but, yeah, it makes sense to wrap it up as quickly as possible. And, you know, I think it tends to be the winter months and particularly I think in English football we've got to remember, you know, lack of a winter break compared to other teams. I think it probably is a little bit tougher for English sides when there are those two extra games in January and maybe the playoff rounds. So yeah, it makes, it absolutely makes sense to go for it. And as we've pointed out, the English sides are doing very well. You know, four in the top eight and all six in the top 12. So yeah, I think they're probably all going to have a smooth progression to at least a seeded place in the playoff round. But yeah, it probably will be like it used to be in the group phase where there's a couple of teams who will rest players for the last couple of games thinking the points don't really mean that much. And I think actually that was the question, as we say with Liverpool. My understanding at the end of the league phase was Liverpool were going to get a really easy draw in the next round. Okay, PSG had only finished I think 15th or something, so they, they weren't doing that well. But it, it wasn't that much of a benefit really for Liverpool to finish top rather than third or fourth. And I do think that teams might bear that in mind when it comes to team selection for the last couple of League phase matches.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Yeah, Premier League dominance isn't a new concept, James. So are Arsenal just going hell for toe in the hope that something lands? Because I'm still trying to figure out what their Arsenal strategy is. This is a team like Slavia Prague for instance. It's quite a wonderful opportunity to rest players. Even the second team in Arsenal should give Slavia Prague a good run. But for some teams they are taking this seriously.
James Horncastle
Yeah, Arsenal still have a lot of players out injured, which I think to some extent obliged Mikel Arteta to start the team that he started. Even though you can quibble with a few of the selection decisions he made. But I think Michael touched upon this. The sort of great equalizer really between the Premier League and the rest is that winter period going into spring where you know the Premier League is playing over Christmas and New Year. You then have the FA cup fourth round, which everyone gets excited about and thrown into that. Now you have the final two League phase games and if you're not in the top eight then you're in the playoff. And I think that fixture pile up at a time when there is already congestion. It can ravage even the deepest squads. I think we've seen sort of last year Arsenal and Tottenham had full on injury crises for long spells throughout the year. You know, I don't know what Arteta's strategy is vis a vis the game against Slavia Prague and playing the strongest players he had available in most positions. But yeah, certainly when it comes to that springtime, there are still random things that intervene and make it difficult for the English teams to make that financial dominance to bear. And those are injuries. The format you find yourself in, that sort of March, April period, whether in Arsenal's case, they are close to winning their first Premier League title in, you know, more than two decades. All of those things are brought to bear on that on those final couple of months of the Champions League.
Ayo Akimulere
Dude, did you order the new iPhone 17 Pro?
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Got it from Verizon, the best 5G network in America. I never look so good. You look the same, but with this camera everything looks better. Especially me.
Ayo Akimulere
You haven't changed your hair in 15 years.
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Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
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Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Plans and just lounge.
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Ayo Akimulere
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Producer/Announcer
You'Re listening to the Athletic FC podcast with Ayo Akumolere.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Well, over the last five seasons, only two Premier League sides have won the Champions league Chelsea in 2021 and Manchester City in 2023. No Premier League sides have featured in the final for the Last two seasons, look, we've had Real Madrid versus Dortmund and also PSG versus Inter as well. James, how do you explain that? Because we've touched on the financial advantage though of the Premier League, haven't we?
James Horncastle
Well, yeah, I mean, as I mentioned, There have been seven Premier League finals in the last 10 years and two all English finals. Yeah, I think Inter is a minor miracle of really good coaching and recruitment. I think every time Inter reached the final, they've done it twice in the last three years. People have remarked on what a motley crew of Inter players that is. Players signed on free transfers, players who've gone to the Premier League. And you had the appearances that they failed in the Premier League. Certainly the first time they reached the final in 2023 in Istanbul, people looked at their side of the draw in the knockout stages and said, hang on a minute, they've played Porto, they've played AC Milan in the semi final, they played Benfica in the quarterfinals. It's all been set up for them to get there. Last year that wasn't the case. They really ran the gauntlet and I think showed how mature they were as a team by knocking out Bayern and Barcelona. But how repeatable that is. You are dependent on a really group of players being bigger than the sum of their parts. With Dortmund, again, I think people would look to the side of the draw that they came out on. They were in a group of def. Which were a lot of people surprised that they came out with, which had psg Newcastle and AC Milan. I think Dortmund continue to be quite flaky. Edin Terzic, the coach who got them to the Champions League final has been available for what, a year? Two years? No one's hiring Edin Tersich. You know, I just think that in many respects it's between the Premier League and the state wealth teams and Madrid being just by dint of being Madrid. You remarked on no Champions League finalists in the Premier League last two years. But like, I mean we're coming off one of the all time great Madrid dynasties, really. And yeah, they've needed that to be competitive.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
And Michael, the addition to this is the fact that when it comes to the knockout stages, Premier League teams have also not been that great. They've only been two Premier League sides in quarterfinals in the last three seasons. Okay, we've got all this money, we've got all this attack in prowess, we've got this dominance in terms of the amount of teams in the Champions League and in Europe, but why can't they make it out the knockout stages. Why are they so poor?
Ayo Akimulere
It's a fair question and I think it is a bit of a mystery. I think it probably comes down to individual factors. I do think it's probably worth considering that because of the strength of the Premier League, maybe this plays a slight negative role because I think week in, week out is quite tough for the Premier League teams. You can go away to, I don't know, Forest or Brentford or Bournemouth and they've got players who they've often signed from other Champions League teams. And I just don't think that's the case for Real Madrid, Barcelona. I think in general the La Liga games away from home tend to be quite tricky, but at home you don't really expect them to have many problems. So I think that's part of an issue and just on, on not winning it overall. I mean the pattern is that for whatever reason English sides just aren't very good at finals. They, they almost always underperform in finals and it's, I mean three of the times when English sides have won it, it's because there's been an all English final as James has said, so someone's got to win it. I mean you look at when English sides actually win against foreign opposition in the final, it's almost always in completely undeserved circumstances, you know. 99 Manchester United against Bayern were lo pretty much the whole game. Liverpool against Milan in 2005, the 30 down and come back out of nowhere. Chelsea against Bayern in 2012 got battered for most of the game and got a last minute equalizer. Probably the only exception is Man City against inter in, in 2023 when even then I think Inter played much better than most people expected and I think probably dominated the first half in particular. So it just feels like when it gets to the final game of the season, whether it's tiredness, whether it's just not preparing psychologically I'm not sure it's a tactical thing because these sides are getting through two legged games to get there. But English sides in general, once they get to the Champions League final, I'm struggling to think of any team that's actually performed really well in the Champions League final once they've got there from England. It is quite an odd pattern.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
I want us to touch on something James. And it's the mass consumption of Premier League teams when it comes to European talent. Managers, players, coaches, executives. This is a league that spent over 3 billion the summer just gone cannibalizing the competition. That can't be that productive. Can it?
James Horncastle
Look, it makes it harder for teams from other leagues to be competitive, to keep teams together for longer, which gives them a better chance of, for example, if you're. Let's give an extreme example. Ajax that reached the semifinals a few years ago, the vultures were already circling to pick off that team come April, May, before they'd been knocked out by that Lucas, Moura, Hattrick and Tottenham. But you know, I mean, if you look at the two most expensive deals done in Ligue 1 and La Liga in the summer, they were signing Bournemouth center backs. You know, sort of Dean Howson went from Bournemouth to Real Madrid and Zabierny went from Bournemouth to psg. Yeah, even Madrid, you know, sort of whilst they've been building their stadium, which, you know, there's still work going on around it. Yeah, Madrid have irked lots of fans from different clubs by doing free transfers and you know, free transfers sort of allows them to be competitive, you know, sort of. Let's take Trent, let's take Kylian Mbappe, let's use the aura of being Real Madrid, the team that doesn't bottle it in finals and use all of that and use the transfer fee that we would pay another club to pay the player a signing on fee and to pay them the wages that they expect. That's the only way they've really been able to be competitive in the mid to long, long term. But yeah, the Premier League, it just has the magnetism that comes from being the most watched and the richest league in the world. There are executives who have been at big Italian, Spanish, French clubs, German clubs, and yeah, they've all been enticed by the Premier League because, you know, the Premier League can offer greater salaries. You know, I think the days where players might go to Porto and spend a couple of years playing for Porto and get experience playing in the Champions League for Porto, those, those players will now go to Bournemouth and instead of thinking, oh, it'd be good for me to get Champions League experience, I need to have the exposure of being in the Premier League. If I play better at Bournemouth, then I can move up the Premier League like someone like Kirkes, for example. So the economics of the game have altered dramatically, I would say, in the last few years. Whenever I make this point, it's not a criticism of the Premier League. The Premier League has been extraordinarily well run for the last 30 years. It's more an observation of what that success means for the rest of Europe.
Ayo Akimulere
The point to make here is that, you know, as James alluded to A large reason why the Premier League is getting so much money is from foreign TV rights. And the reason that foreign TV rights produces such money is because so many people want to watch it. And I think there's two competing arguments for why that is the case. One is the fact that the Premier League generally is pretty entertaining. There's been some seasons where someone's run away with it, but you've usually got a title fight. There's probably been seven different teams involved in a title race at some point over the last 15 years. I think if you go to Spain, it's probably just three. Italy, to be fair, I think, has been very entertaining in recent years. France and Germany, at times, there's just not a title race to get invested in. And the other argument is that the Premier League has opened itself up to sources of wealth to buy the best players that other leagues, particularly Germany, certainly wouldn't go near. So I think to a certain extent, the Premier League should be praised because it's got a competitive league, it's exciting, there's reasons to want to tune in every weekend, and that brings in the money.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
So when it does come to the knockout format, then would you say that's the best leveler when it comes to financial advantage off the Premier League, then, Michael?
Ayo Akimulere
Yeah, that's the beauty of a knockout competition. Absolutely. It's. It's random. You know, surprising things can happen. The more games you have, I think the more things are going to shake out and the best sides will win it. But, yeah, that's the funny thing about the Champions League. I mean, for all we're talking about the new format, it still comes alive in the format it's always been in. And there's no. No one who ever. Hopefully no one ever will call for it not to be decided on a knockout phase, because I think it produces probably the, if not the best drama in sport because there's the World cup, certainly the best quality. I mean, you know, some of the matches last season I thought were absolutely fantastic. Arsenal's win over Real Madrid in the PSG Villa tie. Bayern and Inter's game was great. Barcelona Inter semi final was probably one of games you ever see. Like, the knockout phase is so good, it just takes longer to get there and we'll have to wait and see. But I think there probably will be more English sides in the last eight. It was just Villa and Arsenal last year. I'd be surprised if it's only two this time around. But obviously we'll have to wait and see.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Yeah, we've often talked about Inter's great achievements over the last few years in the Champions League. Getting to the final, James. And you know, when you do get to those latter stages, I mean that is really something to marvel at in terms of the coaching and the way certain teams just get up for it regardless of financial Dominan of whatever.
James Horncastle
Absolutely. But you know, it's dependent really on a group of players staying together and there being sort of continuity of management. You know, I think Inter benefited from having four years of Simone Inzaghi. And you know, their best Italian players recognize what a privilege it is to play for a big club like Inter. You know, for some Italians playing at San Siro, being an Interista, they will turn down bigger money and going to a Premier League team because they want to be an interplayer. And that's something that they've dreamt of ever since they were kids. On the flip side to that, having a core of really great Italian players is becoming more and more difficult because for the first time really the Premier League is peeling them away. And we maybe spoke about this last week in the Juventus podcast. Juventus have always been able to have kind of first mover advantage in getting the best young Italian players and then keeping them at the club for a decade. Fifteen years, yeah, that's difficult now because Gigi donarumma goes to PSG, makes 12 million a year. Juventus can't afford to pay that even if PSG want to move the player on. So he goes to another state wealth club that's also based in the Premier League in Man City, Sandro Tonali. Tonali is playing for Newcastle. Has extended his contract perhaps out of recognition that there isn't an Italian club out there able to bring him back to Italy given the salaries. On being at a state wealth club like Newcastle, Califuri is at Arsenal. Top of the league, top of the Champions League. You know, there is no better place to be right now for someone like that. You know, even Michael Coyote, you know, at Brentford, you know Coyote who came through at Fiorentina, scored the only goal when Italy won the under 17 Euros in 2023. Brentford can go out put money up for a teenage Italian at a time when just Italians can't. And Coyote is for better or worse, been the talk of the Premier League because of his long throwing ability so far this season. Even Giovanni Leone, who Liverpool move for 30 million. There you go, Palmer. He was a player of course of interest to Inter. For example, Inter can't pay that kind of money for a teenager. So in that sense, doing what Inter have done in the last four years becomes harder not only for them, but for AC Milan, for Juventus, for Roma, for Atalanta.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Okay, brilliant. Let's leave it there, Genta. Really appreciate your time, Michael James. And also thank you guys for listening as well. Matt Davies Adams brings you the preview tomorrow. Looking ahead to the big one at the Etihad Liverpool. Travel to Manchester City. We'll catch you soon.
Producer/Announcer
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Ayo Akimulere
Dude, did you order the new iPhone 17 Pro?
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
Got it from Verizon, the best 5G network in America. I never look so good.
James Horncastle
You look the same.
Host (possibly Ayo Akimulere or another main host)
But with this camera, everything, everything looks better. Especially me.
Ayo Akimulere
You haven't changed your hair in 15 years. Selfies check please.
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Episode: Are Premier League sides finding the Champions League too easy?
Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Ayo Akimolere
Guests: Michael Cox, James Horncastle
This episode confronts the question: Is Premier League dominance making the Champions League too easy— and is that a problem for European football? Host Ayo Akimolere is joined by Michael Cox and James Horncastle, who pull apart the financial, structural, and cultural factors fueling English teams’ strong performance in the Champions League’s new “league phase.” They debate whether this is healthy for the competition, scrutinize the impact of the reworked Champions League format, assess if the English advantage is as decisive as it seems, and consider whether any structural fixes are possible or desirable.
[02:04–04:08]
Michael Cox raves about Mickey Van de Ven’s sensational solo goal against Copenhagen, highlighting its audacity:
"He had no right to shoot from that position...if you’ve run from your own box, you do get the license to shoot. And I’m pleased he did." (Michael Cox, 02:34)
James Horncastle picks Lamina Ma’s goal for Barcelona against Bruges, praising his telepathy with Pedri and Barcelona’s ongoing defensive issues:
"His goal in Bruges was up there...just the control and coordination...but playing this way, I just don't think Barcelona can win the Champions League." (James Horncastle, 03:25)
[04:08–05:31]
Michael Cox downplays the issue, noting that while English teams feature heavily in early phases, the latter stages haven’t been overrun by them. He sees the real problem as one of financial disparity damaging the quality of other domestic leagues rather than the Champions League itself:
"I think the English sides have a huge financial advantage...but I think Premier League’s power over other leagues is more of an issue for domestic leagues..." (Michael Cox, 04:18)
James Horncastle expands on this, describing Real Madrid as the “royalty of Europe” now cast as the “resistance” to Premier League dominance. He cites the ballooning value of Premier League international TV rights as a destabilizing factor for the rest of Europe:
"The Premier League is the richest league in the world by a distance...it’s not inevitable a Premier League team will win...but it gives them a better chance...UEFA’s problem is they’re relying on Madrid and PSG to create the appearance of competitive balance." (James Horncastle, 05:31)
[08:02–10:32]
Michael Cox suggests the league-phase tweak is part of the issue: with more games (eight instead of six) and wider participation, the rich have more opportunities to prove their superiority:
"Eight games rather than six basically means the cream rises to the top…with the Premier League’s financial dominance, [the English teams] are all going to finish at least in the first 16 places." (Michael Cox, 08:14)
On format confusion: Both the host and guests admit that even experts struggle to keep up with how qualification and seeding work under the revamped system:
"I’m still kind of perplexed by it, even though I did the explainer myself." (Host, 09:43)
[10:32–13:13]
James Horncastle explains that the system now entrenches Premier League dominance. He notes the Conference League’s creation has, perhaps inadvertently, helped top five leagues rack up coefficient points and gain more Champions League spaces:
"It does feel to me that the Premier League is set up to top this coefficient..." (James Horncastle, 10:32)
Michael Cox is skeptical about the logic of rewarding already dominant leagues with extra places. He’d rather see those slots go to lesser nations:
"This extra spot for a best performing nation...I would happily have this scrapped." (Michael Cox, 13:22)
[18:09–24:03]
James Horncastle references Carlo Ancelotti’s analysis: win early, then rest and rotate. But with the unpredictable fixtures of the league phase, clubs sometimes have to play strong lineups throughout:
"It's really higgledy piggledy in terms of the standard of opponent...If you look at who Spurs have played...this doesn’t feel like Champions League to me." (James Horncastle, 18:26)
Michael Cox says the league phase dilutes the meaning of individual games, reducing jeopardy and excitement:
"Every game on average has 80% less meaning...I think it takes a while before you get to that point of real drama." (Michael Cox, 20:26)
[24:03–25:52]
"That fixture pile-up at a time when there is already congestion...can ravage even the deepest squads." (James Horncastle, 24:03)
[27:40–32:04]
"English sides in general, once they get to the Champions League final, I’m struggling to think of any team that’s actually performed really well in the Champions League final once they've got there from England." (Michael Cox, 30:17)
[32:04–35:04]
"If you look at the two most expensive deals done in Ligue 1 and La Liga in the summer, they were signing Bournemouth center backs." (James Horncastle, 32:24)
[35:04–36:05]
[36:05–37:30]
"That’s the beauty of a knockout competition...it still comes alive...I think there probably will be more English sides in the last eight…but we’ll have to wait and see." (Michael Cox, 36:13)
[37:13–40:06]
"Having a core of really great Italian players is becoming more and more difficult...the Premier League is peeling them away." (James Horncastle, 37:30)
Michael Cox:
"English sides in general, once they get to the Champions League final, I’m struggling to think of any team that’s actually performed really well..." – (30:17)
James Horncastle:
"The Premier League is the richest league in the world by a distance…It is UEFA’s problem, I think, in the short to mid term for the competitive balance of their league." – (05:31)
Michael Cox:
"Every game on average has 80% less meaning...I think it takes a while before you get to that point of real drama." – (20:26)
James Horncastle:
"Conferences League...allowed Serie A to gain ground...but the Premier League should be winning those competitions, just because...by revenue they are one of the richest clubs in the world." – (10:32)
Michael Cox:
"I think there probably will be more English sides in the last eight...But obviously we’ll have to wait and see." – (36:13)
The hosts and guests approach the topic with measured, thoughtful skepticism about English clubs' supposed overwhelming dominance, putting factors into broader historical, economic, and structural context. There's respect for what the Premier League has achieved but candid acknowledgment of the ripple effects on continental football. Above all, there’s agreement that knockout football— unpredictable and dramatic—remains immune to simple financial determinism.
This summary captures the essence, arguments, and personalities of the episode, serving both as a recap and a primer for those interested in the intersection of English football and European competition.