Do the winless clubs need to change to survive?

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast Summary Episode: Do the Winless Clubs Need to Change to Survive?
Release Date: October 8, 2024
Host: Ayo Akinwolere
Guests: Phil Hay, Tim Spears

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Introduction and Topic Overview

In the October 8, 2024 episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, host Ayo Akinwolere delves into the pressing issue facing four Premier League clubs: Southampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wolves), Ipswich Town, and Crystal Palace. These teams have struggled to secure a single win so far this season, raising questions about their strategies for survival in England’s top football tier.

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Wolverhampton Wanderers: Struggles, Management, and Recruitment Issues

Performance Overview
Wolves have had a disheartening start under manager Gary O'Neill, recording zero wins, one draw, and six losses in seven Premier League matches, with a goal difference of -12. [03:03] Ayo Akinwolere highlights the team's underperformance despite a squad with potential.

Management and Tactical Challenges
Tim Spears, a resident Wolves fan, provides an in-depth analysis of the club's predicament. He attributes the poor results to a combination of an unsettled transfer market, loss of managerial momentum, and questionable tactical decisions by O'Neill. Spears notes, "[03:54] The fans are questioning the owners for the first time," reflecting the growing dissatisfaction among the supporters.

Recruitment Failures
Phil Hay underscores the impact of ineffective recruitment, citing expensive signings like Fabio Silva (£35 million) and Gonzalo Guedes (£29 million) that have failed to make a meaningful contribution to the team. He remarks, "[04:03] Spending big on players who don’t perform can set a club back by a year."

Financial and Strategic Constraints
The discussion touches on Wolves' pragmatic ownership, which emphasizes financial sustainability over excessive spending. This cautious approach has hindered the club's ability to replicate the success achieved under former manager Nuno Espírito Santo and agent Jorge Mendes. Spears states, "[05:00] The club hasn’t had the revenue streams to support continuous high-level performance."

Upcoming Fixtures and Managerial Future
Looking ahead, Wolves face crucial matches against Manchester City and Brighton, which will significantly influence O'Neill's future. Spears expresses concern, "[07:35] If O'Neill can't navigate these games, his position is in jeopardy."

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Crystal Palace: Disruptions and Loss of Key Players

Seasonal Challenges
Dom Fifield analyzes Crystal Palace's rocky start, attributing it to a "perfect storm" of disruptions. Key factors include the involvement of seven players in major summer tournaments, leading to fatigue and injuries. [12:11] He explains, "[12:11] The loss of Michael Elise to Bayern Munich left a significant void in the team's creativity."

Tactical and Squad Adjustments
Glasner's reliance on Eze has become a tactical vulnerability, as opponents focus their defense on neutralizing him. Fifield notes, "[12:11] With Eze bearing the brunt, opposition midfielders can easily stifle Palace's play."

Recruitment and Team Cohesion
Phil Hay discusses Palace's recruitment issues, pointing out the failure to adequately replace key departures like Eze and the misalignment in recent signings. He comments, "[15:27] Neither Neto nor Kilman were effectively replaced, leaving significant gaps in defense."

Managerial Resilience
Despite these challenges, Hay remains optimistic about Glasner's ability to steer Palace back on track. He asserts, "[14:00] Glasner is the sort of coach you should be sticking out with because there are valid reasons to believe improvement is possible."

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Ipswich Town and Southampton: Promotion Challenges and Integration of New Signings

High Spending and Squad Integration
Phil Hay highlights the difficulties newly promoted teams like Ipswich Town and Southampton face in integrating numerous new signings. The heavy financial investment—Ipswich with approximately £100 million and Southampton with £20 million—poses significant challenges in team cohesion and adaptation to the Premier League's competitive demands. [15:27]

Managerial Stability and Recruitment Pressure
The episode emphasizes the immense pressure on recruitment teams and managers to align their strategies effectively. Hay warns, "[18:20] A bad summer can seriously set you back, putting pressure on both recruitment and managerial consistency."

Player Transition and Performance
Hay further explains that the transition of players from the Championship to the Premier League is fraught with difficulties, often resulting in underperformance. He notes, "[17:51] Predicting quick results is unrealistic given the difficulty in integrating so many new players."

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Managerial Styles: Possession vs. Counter-Attacking Football

Adaptability Over Rigid Philosophies
The conversation shifts to the debate over whether struggling teams should adopt a possession-based approach or rely on counter-attacking strategies. Phil Hay argues against adhering strictly to possession football, especially for teams battling relegation. He states, "[22:21] Flexibility is key. Sticking to one style without adapting can lead to stagnation."

Case Studies of Managerial Rigidity
Hay criticizes managers like Russell Martin of Southampton for being too inflexible. He draws parallels with Marcelo Bielsa’s tenure at Leeds, where rigid adherence to a playing style led to loss of player confidence and eventual managerial dismissal. "[23:12] Bielsa’s inflexibility at Leeds was detrimental once results turned poor."

Survival Strategies
The hosts discuss the necessity for managers of struggling teams to adapt their tactical approaches to ensure survival. Hay suggests, "[24:29] Pragmatism has no place in the game," emphasizing that managers must prioritize results over rigid adherence to attractive football.

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Premier League Bottom Clubs' Points Trends

Declining Relegation Points
Lynn Tharm, in a segment from the previous week's Athletic FC Tactics podcast, highlights a trend where the points accumulated by the Premier League's relegated teams have steadily decreased over the years. "[29:26] The points for relegated teams have trended downwards, making survival increasingly difficult."

Widening Gap Between Divisions
Phil Hay attributes this decline to the growing gulf between the Premier League and the Championship. He explains, "[30:01] The gap between divisions is widening, making it harder for teams to bounce back after relegation."

Historical Context
Comparisons are made to past decades when newly promoted teams occasionally performed exceptionally well, such as Nottingham Forest winning the league shortly after promotion. Hay remarks, "[34:19] Historical instances of dominance by promoted teams are rare in the modern era."

Impact of Elite Clubs
The dominance of top-tier clubs like Manchester City and Liverpool exacerbates the difficulty for lower-ranked teams to accumulate sufficient points to avoid relegation. Hay observes, "[33:04] The strengthening of top clubs makes the league more predictable and the bottom more precarious."

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Concluding Insights and Future Outlook

Hope for Wolves
Despite the bleak start, there is cautious optimism about Wolves' squad talent and potential turnaround. Phil Hay notes, "[36:03] Wolves have the quality in their squad to stay up, but O'Neill needs to make significant changes quickly."

Ipswich's Resilience
Hay expresses confidence in Ipswich Town’s dressing room stability under McKenna, suggesting that their collective resilience might aid in overcoming current struggles. "[37:58] The McKenna effect could provide Ipswich with the necessary stability to fend off relegation threats."

Overall Premier League Dynamics
The episode concludes with reflections on the increasing challenges for lower-ranked teams to survive in the Premier League. The hosts emphasize that without substantial changes in management, recruitment, and tactical flexibility, the likelihood of these winless clubs improving their standings remains slim.

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Notable Quotes

• Phil Hay at [04:03]: "Spending big on players who don’t perform can set a club back by a year."
• Tim Spears at [05:00]: "The club hasn’t had the revenue streams to support continuous high-level performance."
• Phil Hay at [14:00]: "Glasner is the sort of coach you should be sticking out with because there are valid reasons to believe improvement is possible."
• Phil Hay at [22:21]: "Flexibility is key. Sticking to one style without adapting can lead to stagnation."
• Lynn Tharm at [29:26]: "The points for relegated teams have trended downwards, making survival increasingly difficult."

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This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the struggles faced by Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace, Ipswich Town, and Southampton in the current Premier League season. Through insightful discussions on management, recruitment, tactical approaches, and broader league trends, The Athletic FC Podcast offers valuable perspectives on what these clubs need to change to enhance their survival prospects.

Transcript

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[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Hello and welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Ayo Akinwaleri. Today we're focusing on the four winless clubs in the Premier League. Southampton, Wolves, Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Madueke's in the middle. So Shao Felix second debut goal and it's 6 2, Chelsea running right at Molyneux.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

What can these clubs do to avoid being cut adrift and their managers getting sacked? Joining me is the Athletics, Phil Hay and also Tim Spears as well. Tim, let's start with you. I know we haven't had you on the pod for a while, but you are the resident Wolves fan, so you've.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Got me on for the misery.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Please, please hang on while I just go in on a few stats. Gary O'Neill's side have started the season with zero wins, one draw and six losses in seven Premier League games. Also a -12 goal difference. I'm watching this Wolves squad and I'm thinking, know some of these players on this team aren't that bad. They've been in the Premier League now for a fair bit of time. What's gone wrong?

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Oh, geez. It's going to feel like therapy, isn't it? I think.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Please talk to me. Safe space here.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

We got a couch or. I think they had a bit of an iffy summer in the transfer market and O'Neill's kind of lost his mojo a bit and maybe made some bad tactical decisions. But there's definitely a bigger picture at Wolves in terms of a byproduct of a club that's drifting quite a lot. I mean, you know, if you look quickly at Wolves journey going from mid table championship club club to seventh place in the Premier League twice in a row and a Europa League quarterfinal in the space of four years, you know, and they spent a lot of money to get there and they had a, you know, a special manager in Nuno and a special agent in George Mendes. So then, you know, to get to that level and then to cement where you are takes probably, you know, the same amount of spending again. And it takes, you know, revenue and income streams that the club hasn't had before. And I guess, you know, with the ownership, they've got very sort of pragmatic owners that want the clubs to be self sustainable and to look to long term, they're not just going to throw money at it and put the club in sort of financial jeopardy. So what you've sort of seen in the four years since is things going a bit stale and obviously Nuno left and you've had a churn of managers and some poor recruitment which really can put you back. You know, if you spend 35 million on Fabio Silva and 29 million on Gonzalo Guedes and neither of them do anything then that's a huge chunk of money and can really set you back by sort of a year. And the fans have really turned now, you know, they're questioning the owners for the first time. Away at Brentford at the weekend there was some anti fos and chance questioning the manager as well and you know, rightly sort of, you know, questioning what is the plan for this club, you know, what are the ambitions? Where are you looking to take us? Where's the investment? Where's the stadium improvements which have never come? So I think to have an incredible cycle is one thing and Villa and Newcastle are sort of still going through that now and enjoying that. But to repeat that success with your next manager, you know, when Emery leaves or when Eddie Howe leaves and the next set of players that come through without spending sort of crazy money is almost impossible really. It highlights the amazing work that, that Brighton are doing by the way, year on year.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

I know we're scouting network that's an incredible infrastructure as well.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

So you need, you need those foundations and I know we're talking about sort of bad football teams here and how can they stay up but I do think there's a question of, and we've seen this before, you know, of, of the Premier League sort of, you know, beating, beating teams down after a while because if, if you've got nothing to aim and achieve for then you're going to get sort of sucked into that whirlpool and you're going to get relegated at some point and then you know, we' Middlesbrough, Stoke, Watford, Swansea, teams that have spent a number of years in the Premier League. And once you get down it's so hard to come back up. And once you've got over, and Phil will know this once you've got over enjoying that first year of the excitement of the Premier League, the away days, match of the day, full houses every week, you know, the great signings for two, three years. It's so hard to sort of keep that going. And I can definitely feel that lack of excitement at Wolves. I mean they had Liverpool at home couple of weeks ago on a Saturday night and it was so flat and they only lost 2, 1 and they were in the game. But even at kickoff it was just so quiet because, you know, that that excitement's really gone and I think for the owners as well that that excitement has sort of gone and there's a real realism of how much you need to spend to actually, you know, try and achieve something in the Premier League. So. So yeah, I guess you're going to get caught out once in a while if you have a bad year of recruitment.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

I'm looking at Wolves fixtures post the international break. Manchester City at home, Brighton away. Wolves have just come off, you know, a 53 defeat against Brentford. Gary O'Neill is going to be an interesting one moving forward and whether or not he has the opportunity to carry on as manager at Wolves. Those two games are really defining, aren't they?

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah, I mean, Wolves fans don't want to hear this anymore, you know, after ship in five at Brentford away at the weekend, but they have had the hardest opening run of any team. In their opening nine games they played the top seven and their other two were against Forest and Brentford who are both going pretty well. So they've had a horrible run. And yeah, like you say, man, City and Brighton next. It's not a flawless excuse because you know, Nuno's Wolves would take on and beat these big boys. But yeah, after sitting in Brighton, you've got basically a fixture compiler's dream of all the teams sort of in and around them. But there's going to be enormous pressure if O'Neill gets that far on those games. If you can get through City and Brighton, then it's, I think it's palace and Southampton at home. You go one nil down in one of those and the whole place is going to be toxic like it was in the away end at Brentford at the weekend. So personally I think Wolves squad is a mid table squad looking upwards certainly in an attacking sense. So O'Neill hasn't got that as an excuse. He can't say the squad isn't good enough. Personally, I think the squad they have is probably suited to a more sort of tactically astute manager with maybe loftier ambitions. But yeah, at the moment, you know, the defense is absolutely abominable. You know, if they played Warsaw tomorrow, they wouldn't keep a clean sheet. No offense to Warsaw, you know, but it's that bad. Insert your, your lower league choice here.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

I know where you.

[Phil Hay]

That was definite offense to Walsall.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah, well, I mean, it's a Midland thing. It's a Midland thing. Leave him alone.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

But yeah, I mean, you know, the Brentford game, they must have conceded about 10 free headers, including, you know, one in the second minute and the one nil down. Then they're not jumping for crosses and there are real weak links there which O'neill's not going to be able to fix in the short term.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Okay, Phil, you know, we'll talk about Palace, Ipswich and Southampton later on in the show. We talk about winless clubs and those. We've got our four. Now, October is typically sacking season. Which one of the managers out of those four teams do you think needs to be a bit wary of their job moving forward?

[Phil Hay]

I would say there are two obvious ones. Tim. Tim touched on something really interesting there. I feel more and more that Brighton seem to have seemed to have created this thing of being able to enjoy season after season. They seem to have got the knack of that in the Premier League and they almost need to bottle and sell it to everybody else because there's always this clutch of clubs who no matter how high they finish up the league and no matter how comfortable they feel in the in the Premier League, are always at risk of being sucked back into what goes on at the bottom of it. It really isn't very long. It's a great example since people were talking about how much they like the Leicester City model. I remember Leeds focusing a lot on what they used to call the Leicester model, which was make very good signings at relatively low cost, sell for big money and big profits that you can reinvest and in the meantime win trophies. In Leicester's case the Premier League and the FA Cup. Nobody talks about the Leicester model anymore because it ground to a halt and they went down. And I would caution against, as much as I admire Brighton and I do think they're onto a really good thing there, I would caution against them being out of trouble indefinitely. In the same way that Brentford, after some good seasons have kind of got sucked in a little bit more. To look at the table as it is at the moment, and particularly the four clubs with no wins. I think that the side who are in most trouble without any doubt is Southampton. And I, I do think they're starting to smell of managerial change somewhere between mid October and mid November because they. They haven't got going. I still think though that the most despondent dressing room will be Wolves. There was a very good piece done in the summer by Adam Crafton who was over in America when, when Wolves were on tour for pre season there and he piece on the club and the squad and the preparation, but also a lot of work on a lot of the coverage was of Gary O'Neal himself. Every base covered in the sense of things like taking three pillows for each player so they got a good good night's sleep. You know, the kind of minute detail. And I think to be fair to O'Neal, looking back at that piece, as I have this week, you couldn't say that any of this is a dereliction of duty on his part. He genuinely did everything to prepare them and to have them prepared for the start of the season. There was a lot of work went into it, but as happens and as tends to happen with club season after season, it just isn't working. And I get the sense that Wolves will be really reluctant to break from this and we want to see him punch his way out of trouble, but this can't go on much longer and I do think another couple of results are going to leave him very close to the fire.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

So you're saying Southampton and Wolves really should be thinking about what happens with their manager moving forward?

[Phil Hay]

I think so, yeah.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Okay. Right, time to talk about Crystal Palace. Let's hear from the athletics. Dom Fifield on where it's all gone wrong for Oliver Glassner's side.

[Acast]

So why are palace not clicking? Well, this season to date has been something of the perfect storm for Oliver Glasner. Palace had seven players involved in the finals of major tournaments over the summer. Euro 20, 24, the Copa America and the Olympics, which clearly disrupted pre season. And I think that's potentially more critical at a club of this size than at this squad depth. Those personnel involved are clearly going to be the key players and yet they come back either not fit or carrying injuries. Then there's the obvious. The loss of Michael Elise, who had been their creator in chief through that glorious run into last season, and his departure for Bayern Munich left a huge void in the side. And now we're in a situation where Ezra is attempting to do it all on his own and it's very easy for opposition defenders and opponents midfielders to concentrate on stifling him in the knowledge that he probably stifled Palace. And I think in general there's been far too much disruption, too many new players attempting to learn the Oliver Glasner way, or if they were familiar with that before, attempting to adjust to the Premier League. And that's going to need time. But there's also the context. We have to remember the context here. We're measuring how palace should be doing now with what happened at the back end of last season when they won six out of seven matches. But this was actually a group that had been hovering above the relegation zone prior to that. So we probably need a bit of realism here, which is, in fairness, what Oliver Glasner has been attempting to stress in all his, his media briefings to date this season.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Dom makes a really fair point there in terms of, you know, our expectations around palace being a little inflated. I mean, let's not forget how they ended last season and let's not also forget they were in a relegation scrap before he arrived.

[Phil Hay]

Listening to Dom's comments, I think the reasons that he puts forward for palace having a slow start are very valid and I think using them you can piece an argument together for why there's a reasonable to good chance that it will get better. The summer was quite disruptive for, for palace and I don't think there was ever going to be much of a way of, of replacing Michael Elise. I think had they lost Eze as well, it would have left them very, very short and I think we'd have removed a big part of, of what is good about that palace team. But they do have good attacking resources, which means that they will win games and, and that makes a big difference. At the bottom of the table they've got in Katia who I think is, it is a good signing. Without him ever seeming to me to be the kind of perfect Premier League number nine in an all round sense, I think we'll do good things for them and I feel as if palace will be okay and I feel as if Glasner is the sort of coach that you should be sticking out with and you should be backing. I mean, the same rules apply. These sort of runs can't go on indefinitely and at some point you've got to turn the corner. But I get the sense that palace will, I think it will come and I feel like when I listen to Glasner talk about it, I can, I can kind of hear credibility in what he's saying. I think it's a valid point. I think that there are reasons to think that they will pick up and I think he's got the players to do that.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah, Phil talks about the players that palace have lost, but also players they've brought in. Tim, what about from a Wolf's perspective? Neto gone, Kilman gone. In terms of recruitment thoughts, those two.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Players were sold for £90 million and neither of them were replaced. It's like, I don't know, it's almost dereliction of duty really. Like Kilman, they basically said, right, Jerson Mosquera, who's Colombian centre, half pretty young, been out on loan for a few years, including at Villarreal, he was like, right, it's your job to replace Kilman. I mean, he's still sort of learning on the job and now he's got an ACL and he's out for the season and that's it. They didn't sign another centre back. It's left him really short. If you want to go five at the back like O'Neill's now considering to shore things up. They've got three centre halves to do that. One of those is Craig Dawson who's getting on a bit. So yeah, and then Neto went for 50 million again. Was not replaced with a senior player. So yeah, there's a Neto shaped hole and a Kilman shaped hole instead. Wolves went out and spent 20 million on Andre who' Brazilian international midfielder and looks very good but not necessarily an area that they needed strength in because they got Mario Lomina and Joao Gomez. And then they spent 10 million on SAM Johnston to replace Jose Sarr who's on the bench. Arguably a downgrade to be honest. I mean Johnston's really struggled, made a couple of mistakes. Not great playing out from the back. So it's a bit of a strange one really. They focused their recruitment in sort of areas where they didn't necessarily need to and now they're really short the back and people are saying maybe Paul Dummott can come in on a free to come and help out. And it's like, come on, you've had all summer to think about this. So yeah, for Palace, I mean I think Matt Woozman was, our palace guy was saying it was almost a disastrous window up until the final day or two when when they brought in sort of three or four players including Unketia. I mean obviously Anderson who's. Who's almost as big a loss as Alise went sold to Fulham which I thought was a really strange move. One of your sort of rivals for a mid table spot. I mean they kept Gay and Eze but you know, Chalobah didn't look, didn't look too good at the weekend. A weird one with, with palace is that they're playing 3, 4, 3 but they haven't got any cover at wing back. So the against Liverpool at the weekend they had Ismail Assad as right wing back and Nathaniel Klein as left wing back. That's not great, you know, below the depth of your first choice players. So yeah, I think most palace fans would say they did not have a good summer of agreement.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah, Phil, think about the newly promoted sides here. Ipswich spending what 100 million 10 new signings. Southampton spending about the same 20 new signings. I just wonder how difficult that is to integrate. So Many players into a squad, into a step up from the championship, and a team that have never really played before and then expect quick results.

[Phil Hay]

It is difficult and I think as the years go on, it becomes more and more difficult. I imagine Tim will agree with me here that very often you watch teams in the championship, some at the very top end of it, those that win the league or get promoted, and despite where they are and despite how competitive and strong they are in that league, you find yourself asking how many of those players are going to be able to transition well to the Premier League. And quite often the answer is not many or not enough. So you have very little option but to spend heavily and to bring big numbers in. I think you then have the issue of persuading really good players that they want to come to clubs who are automatically going to be sentimental, risk of relegation. And then in the case of IP switch because of that or because of budget or whatever else, you find yourself investing in players who either haven't played consistently or regularly in the Premier League before or are going into it for the first time. So in the case of Ipswich, people like Jacob Graves and Jack Clark, even Liam Delap, coming from Manchester City, you know, is a City player, but no track record in the Premier League and has started very well, but again, a little bit uncertain. Similar from Blackburn. I think the difference between clubs like Southampton and Ipswich is they can cut the cloth in terms of expectation by knowing when they go into the league what they're going to be looking at and what it is that they need to do. They're going to be part of the bun fight. It's slightly different at Wolves, who shouldn't really be in this position, but it does so often come back to recruitment every time. No matter what a coach is doing, no matter what a manager is doing. As you saw with Leicester and their decline, poor recruitment is so often what drags a team down completely.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Agree. You sort of go in year to year, really, and if you have a bad summer, it can seriously set you back. And, you know, we've seen that with a number of clubs. So that puts a lot. That puts an awful lot of pressure on the recruitment team. That puts a lot of pressure on the head coach being aligned with that. And obviously you've got a churn of managers. What's your average, you know, Premier League lifespan of a manager? 12 to 18 months. So to keep that consistency over sort of two, three, four years is extremely difficult. You're listening to the Athletic FC podcast with IO Accamulere.

[Phil Hay]

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Getting ahead of ourselves here.

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[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Well Phil, there's lots of talk around the style of play for teams lowering the table and it seems like they're now looking to play possession based football rather than counter attacking football. I mean, we're not coaches, we're not management, but do you think this is the right approach?

[Phil Hay]

I don't think it's a prerequisite that if you come into the division and you're one of the weaker teams in it, that you have to counter attack or concede the greater share of possession. I don't think you have to commit to playing without the ball. I think there's certain teams in the Premier League who, if you try to fight on the possession front with, I mean, Manchester City being the obvious one, you're going to come off second best. And it's not much of a strategy. Going toe to toe with them just isn't going to work in the same way. I don't think coming up and playing possession football just because it's in vogue, although I would suggest that it's slightly less in vogue now than it was maybe three or four years ago, is automatically the thing to do. I would say that the key aspect of this is to be adaptable when you have to be. And Tim was Talking about Gary O'Neill possibly going to five at the back in order to change it, which is a kind of break from the plan. But if it isn't working, then you need to come up with a solution. I think one of the problems for Russell Martin in particular at Southampton is that he is massively wedded to what he would call plan A, which is possession based style. And, and seems, you know, totally loath to, to break from that. And, and again, I can relate to that because I watched that with Marcelo bielsa, who was 100% going to go out on his shield in the season when, when he was sacked by Leeds and when Leeds got into relegation trouble. The way he played was the way he played and, and that was it. And, and to a degree there's something to admire about that, you know, that you will, if, if you want to call it, stick to, to your principles. But you have to be careful that philosophy doesn't become dogma. And I think if it isn't working, there's not a lot of virtue for somebody like Martin and saying, well, you know, this is the way we play and this is what, what we do. Eventually Southampton at the very top are probably going to say, I'll tell you what, we'll get somebody else who will actually deliver some results and, and make this work and give us a chance of, of staying up. I think by default you'll find that more and more clubs lower down the table will play on the counter and will play without possession. But I don't think it solely comes down to that. That.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah, you nodding when he was talking about changing the style.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Sticking to your principles. But, man, this is survival, Tim.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah. I kind of feel like maybe Vincent Co. Getting the buying job was one of the worst things that could happen for fans. For fans.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Get it completely wrong and get a.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Big job somewhere else. Yeah. If you're a fan of a team in the bottom five or six of the Premier League, that's. That was horrendous news, to be honest. I feel like, you know, I'll be surprised if Martin changed his style. You know, he seems very principled, like, you know, like Company was. And they're very, very good at. They're very, very good at keeping the ball. And he'll probably think, do you know what, a bit of a tweak in the final third and that starts to click. Then we'll. We'll rise the table quite quickly. He'll probably think that the riskier approach would be just forgetting all that, forgetting what they've done for the past 12 or so months and completely changing the style. That might be even, even more risky. But what it also does is it keeps his sort of reputation for playing, you know, attractive football. And when it comes to his next job, which won't be far away, as we've said, he's not going to be at Southampton for 10 years, he can say, look, yeah, we were trying to play great football. Recruitment was the issue. Jason Wilcox leaving in the summer was the issue. You know, the guy upstairs got it wrong. Give me better players. And what I was trying to do at Southampton will work. If Vincent Kompany had gone 4, 4, 2 last season, direct long balls, set pieces, and burnley had finished 15th, would he have got the buying job? I would say absolutely not. So managers will look at that. And Gary O'Neill, I think, is doing the same to an extent, or certainly has done, playing four at the back, trying to keep it pretty open. They're sort of, you know, that they're playing for themselves, I guess. Maybe. I don't know if that's fair or not. Maybe him and Russell Martin are kind of thinking of their next jobs more than keep Wolves or Southampton up at all costs. You know, that's fair enough, really. You got to look out for yourself at the end of the day.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah. Phil, Tim makes a really good point. And we spoke about this just before we started Recording the fact that managers, you know, if things aren't going that well, potentially have got their eyes somewhere else. I mean, Bielsa is international management now and he's done the rounds as a manager with the same front foot style.

[Phil Hay]

Oh, very much so. It's worked for him in various places. Hasn't worked at certain others or hasn't worked indefinitely. There's always come a point with it. I think to be fair to Biel said no way at Leeds was he looking at other jobs. And I do accept and I thought this at the time with him and I think it's fair to say of Martin and Gary O'Neill as well, it's not easy to totally adapt style mid season and Bielsa's argument was always that it doesn't engender confidence in the dressing room either. If for so long you've kind of banged the drum about, we play like this, we do X, we do Y, we absolutely don't do Zed. This is the strategy and we stick to it no matter what. And then when the results turn and it gets difficult, you suddenly say to the players, actually we are going to abandon that because it's not working. Biels point was always, well, they realize that you have no confidence in what you're doing and therefore, you know, they start to lose confidence in, in you. I think there is no place in, in the game for, for pragmatism. And Tim's right about, about Company. I mean he did go out on his shield in the Premier League and it's left Burnley in an okay state. I mean they are very much in the mix in the Championship, but they certainly aren't going to win the title in the same way that that he won it previously. They've got Scott Parker who is kind of proven promotion winner in the championship, but by no means is particularly enthralling coach when it comes to the football he serves up to watch. It might work for them, but I don't know whether in the long term Bonley will feel that the Company era was good for them or not. I suspect they probably will, but it's pretty borderline at the moment.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

And yeah, just to say one team we're not talking about today is Leicester, who did finally get their first win and who's getting the most stick at the moment. Probably Steve Cooper, who's the one that's sort of less bothered about an identity and playing great football and he's sort of a bit more win at all costs. Steve Cooper.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah. I mean we could probably see them down there as well. So very soon. Let's save that for another podcast.

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[Phil Hay]

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[Athletic FC Podcast]

This is the Athletic FC podcast with IO Akumalara.

[Lynn Tharm]

I looked at the points accumulated by the Premier League sort of bottom three, the relegated trio in each season and it's massively trended downwards. You know, quite consistently. It was down to 66 points all three of them last season in the early and mid sort of 2000s. It was up in the 90s quite comfortably. It was up in the hundreds in the first few 20 team Premier League seasons.

[Acast]

So.

[Lynn Tharm]

So yeah, the gap's massively grown.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

That was Lynn Tharm on last week's episode of the Athletic FC Tactics podcast talking about how points totals from the bottom three in the Premier League have trended downwards over time. Phil, you know, why do you think that is?

[Phil Hay]

There's a big gap between the divisions, which is where the problem lies. It becomes harder and harder in the championship to attract Premier League standard players to the division because frankly a lot of them don't want to play there. Same applies to coaches as well. If they think they're a Premier League stock, they don't particularly want to risk their reputations in the championship and they know that it only takes a couple of bad seasons down there before you know the stock is diminished. And I guess it goes back to what I was saying previously about the fact that when you get promoted, you don't necessarily take a lot of outstanding top flight players with you and if you can't address that quickly, you're automatically going to be at the bottom end of the division. I think there's something to be said as well for the way in which the teams at the very top, City and Arsenal in particular. But you saw it with Liverpool under Klo Getting so much stronger and so much more consistent in avoiding defeats and picking up wins. I was having a look back today at the. And okay, it was just one example, but I think it was the 96, 97 season, which, when Manchester United won the title with 75 points, and I would have got them fourth last season, and they'd have been a long way behind Manchester City. So I think when points are shifting so, you know, en masse to clubs at the top end, teams down the bottom are going to get left behind more and more. But I suspect that the real answer to this is the gulf between the championship and the Premier League, which is only keep getting wider, gets wider each season, makes it more difficult to bounce from one to the other. I mean, I don't think you'll necessarily find a team or a club better set up for that step than the Nipswich just because of how consistently been under McKenna, how long McKenna had been in the job, how good they've been under him, and how used they were to winning. But cold hard facts are, if you look at their squad, it's a long way short of what you really need to be uber competitive in the Premier League, which makes it extremely difficult for them. And even somebody who's settled in that role and is, you would say, as safe in that role as McKenna is going to find this a long, hard year.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Do you think that gap will grow as the leagues go on? I mean, even further?

[Athletic FC Podcast]

History tells us so. Right. You know, you go back 40, 50 years, forest coming up and winning the league in the first year, or watford in the 80s coming up and finished second. You know, those days are long gone. And then you in sort of Premier League times, you know, Charlton came up and did well, or hall came up and were in the Champions League positions early on. You know, that doesn't happen anymore. You look at the league table right now, it's so predictable. The top three, the teams struggling, Fulham doing okay. But other than that, you could really predict how this table was going to look a few weeks ago. That makes for a pretty boring league, I think. And it even goes down to sort of the championship now. You know, as Phil will know, you know, you look at the top half of the championship and there's lots of familiar former Premier League clubs there. Obviously Sheffield United, Burnley, West Brom, Leeds, Watford, Norwich, Middlesbrough were there for quite some time, Swansea. And then the bottom half is full of teams who haven't been in the Premier League, like Millwall, Preston, Coventry, Bristol City, Portsmouth and QPR haven't been there for a while, you know, so it's even dropping down to the championship now as well. It's not good, all this predictability.

[Phil Hay]

There's probably only one team in the last 10 years in the championship who have been perfectly set up to jump from one division to the other. I mean, as it turned out, Bielsa's leads were very ready for it. But I think that came down as much as anything to the standard of his coaching as the individual players that they had. But in former jobs, Tim and I used to sit together and press press boxes. And I remember watching that Nuno team with Jota and Neves and Bolly, and you knew what was going on there because you were seeing the results and you were hearing the reports. But when you watch them in the flesh, in the championship, Neves in particular, I felt. But. But all three of them, and there were others who were very good as well. You felt that you were watching not only Premier League players, but kind of almost Champions League standard players, and they were so good and so far apart from the average, you know, level in the championship that you knew they were going to win the title. Decanter. And the reason for that was that Mendes was able for Wolves to serve up that caliber of football footballer. But generally it just doesn't happen. You know, I don't think there'll be another occasion where you see a championship club with players who look so far out of the. The actual depth they should be playing in, which is a million miles that direction in. In much deeper water. You know, it was so easy for Wolves that season. It was unbelievable.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

How did Wolves manage to really do that? Because if I think about it, you know, the kind of money people are making in the championship, it's decent money. That's more than a lot of money than a lot of other leagues across the whole of Europe. Do you just basically try and figure out selling this product to someone. Did Mendes know that this was the big ambition for Wolves, that, yeah, we go into the Premier League and this is what we have to do? I mean, because, you know, I can't see it being that hard to convince someone if their money's right.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

I think with his particular cases, it was a result of the work he's done over many decades in terms of building up his agency. Not just farming all these players onto that agency on to guest a few, but also the way he treats them. You know, they'll. They'll talk about him being like, you know, a father figure and a very sort of personable Likable guy, you know, Nuno's best mate as well, for a start. So a lot of them didn't take much persuading, believe it or not, and I think it was such a cliche. But the project.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

True, that's what I mean. Like, you've got to persuade them on the project and where they might end up.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah. And you needed Nevis to be the first one for the rest to say, look, oh, wow, if Nevis is there, then maybe it's gonna be worth it. But obviously it was very high risk. Risk if. If it was all down to the manager. If Wolves hadn't got the manager in place, then, you know, they might have struggled to get out of that division. And then, yeah, I think there were 57 million in the red that season. So if they. If they hadn't gone up that first season or that second season, that they'd have been in big trouble. So it's not. It's not necessarily the safest or the smartest way to do it because it was, like I said, it was very high risk financially. And that's the dilemma that sort of, you know, Wrexham and Birmingham will have, you know, when they come up. Because it's not just going to be a case of buying the league. You know, you do need those sort of special arrangements like Wolves have with Mendes, or, like I said, like, Brighton have got their recruitment team. You've got to try and do things differently.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Where are the glimmers of hope for Wolves this season? I'm giving opportunity to redeem yourself at this last chat we've just had, like, where genuinely can they look at positives? What can potentially turn this around? Because, you know, for Gary O'Neill, I mean, I look at it and I'm thinking there's also a shift of mindset, Right. Like, every goal, every defeat must feel like a blow for a team that feels like they just can't get out of gear. Wolves seem to start well, but they just dwindle as matches progress.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Yeah, that is a concern. We can talk about the fix list all we want, but they've obviously got a huge confidence problem. So when it comes to playing palace and Southampton at home, you know, can they just brush off the fact that they've had the surrender start to season? I would say talking earlier about how, you know, Folsom really can't afford for Wolves to go down, I do think they'd give it everything in January to keep the team up if they're still really struggling at that point and getting a manager to keep them up. If O'Neill's still struggling, the squad, I'm not going to say too good to go down because that's the kind of thing that comes back to bite you. But the squad is more than good enough to stay up. You know, they've got two Brazil current Brazil internationals in their midfield. Young and very, very talented midfielders in Jagomez and Andre. Matthias Kunha, an exceptional talent. I know Hwang's really struggled recently, but he was a prolific goalscorer at times. It was last season. Strand Larsen, who's sort of Haaland's backup at Norway, scored 13 last season for Celta Vigo. So, yeah, we should be absolutely fine in theory. And I do think the quality of the teams around them is definitely weaker. And you hope that over 38 games will show that hope. Hope.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

That's. I mean, that's what keeps us loving this game. Phil, you.

[Phil Hay]

You.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

You said earlier that you think Glass team will be fine with the. The likes of the recruitment they've brought in. But then we look at Ipswich and we look at Southampton. Any glimmer of hope from where you're sitting as to how either of those two teams can, can stay in the Premier League this season?

[Phil Hay]

I think the hope at Ipswich will be the McKenna effect and that that should be a dressing room in a club that holds together pretty well under pressure and doesn't just flake apart at the first sign of trouble. I did say that about Palace. I also think Wolves will stay up. I'm just not sure that they're going to stay up with O'Neill. I think he's in that really dicey period at the moment now where he doesn't even have really the leeway of another three or four bad weeks. I just don't think the crowd are going to allow that. I think rules will twitch at some point if that carries on. But having seen Wolves at the best under O'Neill, you still like to think that there's. There's a little bit of hope for him there yet. And Tim is absolutely right. It's not as if it's only these four teams who are in it. You know, there are issues at Everton, there are issues at Leicester. We haven't mentioned West Ham once in this conversation, but before they went over Ipswich at the weekend, you know, the narrative did seem to be about how long Lopetegui was going to be able to stick that out. And as it turns out, you know, one big win and suddenly everybody kind of moves on a little bit. So it is starting to take shape without any doubt. And I think you're already beginning to see the teams who are going to be, be, be fighting it out there. But as I say, I think palace will, will get their act together. I think Wolves will, will have enough. I just wonder whether that ton will come quick enough for O'Neill.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah, I mean, Man United are 14th as well. Oops. I didn't. Didn't mention that. Didn't mention that. But that's another podcast again.

[Phil Hay]

Go on, Tim. You. You get into this one.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

No, I'll leave it up. Leave it.

[Ayo Akinwaleri]

Yeah. Cheers, gents. I really appreciate your time and, and thanks for joining us on the pod as per usual and we'll be back tomorrow for another podcast. Thanks for listening.

[LinkedIn Sales Navigator]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network.

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[Paige Desorbo]

Hey guys. Welcome to Giggly Squad, a place where.

[Hannah Berner]

We make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves.

[Paige Desorbo]

I'm Paige desorbo.

[Hannah Berner]

I'm Hannah Berner.

[Paige Desorbo]

Welcome to the squad.

[Hannah Berner]

Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling talk during an inappropriate time.

[Paige Desorbo]

But of course, we can't be managed.

[Hannah Berner]

So we decided to start this podcast.

[Paige Desorbo]

To continue giggling, we will make fun of pop culture news. We're watching fashion trends pep talks where we give advice, mental health moments and games and guests.

[Hannah Berner]

Listen to Giggly Squad on Acast or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Athletic FC Podcast]

Acast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.