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- [00:00]
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- [01:32]
Sponsor Voice
The Athletic FC Podcast Network.
- [01:38]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Ayo Akinwaleere. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are languishing in the bottom half of the table.
- [01:46]
Tim Spears
Canus going for goal and he finds it as well. What a turnaround here at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Leicester have come out roaring in this second.
- [01:56]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Tough times for two of the big six, the tribunal additional heavyweight of English football. So does the idea of those powerhouse clubs dominating the Premier League still ring true? With us today we have our senior writer for the Athletic, Rory Smith, plus the brains behind our brilliant weekly column, Ro Z Tim Spears as well. Now, Matt Slate will also be joining us later to talk off the pitch matters. Rory, I'll come to you first. I mean, look, you're looking at Manchester United and you're looking at spurs, where they are right now, currently in the Premier League. I wouldn't expected that when the league kicked off beginning of the season, are you surprised this is how it's all panned out for them?
- [02:36]
Rory Smith
I think there's probably a glib answer, isn't there? Which is that you could see it happening with Manchester United because you know they'd had the. The uncertainty over Eric 10 Hag in the summer. The recruitment was patchy again. You. They've become a little bit of a laughingstock. Is. Is too. Is too much. But you know that banter era thing that you see on social media, it feels like we are slap ban in the middle of Manchester United's banter era. So maybe with United you could have foreseen just about like mid table obscurity this year. I think Tottenham is much more of a shock. Finished fifth last year, had that great start under postecoglou, recruited well. Dominik Solanke looked like the obvious sign in one of those transfers that really just made sense for all people involved to see them. This sounds really stupid, but I looked at the table the other day and I knew that spurs had been 14th and I'd kind of just brushed it off thinking, well, the table's really concertina'd, you know, couple of wins and that. That'll see them right. They're 15th. 15th is really low in the Premier League table. I don't know if you know this, but it's only three away from relegation.
- [03:38]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah, I think spurs fans know that very well.
- [03:40]
Rory Smith
For a team like Tottenham, that is genuine. It was just kind of a light bulb moment of I don't think spurs will go down. But this is a truly kind of cataclysmic season for Tottenham and that definitely comes as. It comes as a surprise.
- [03:52]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah. Very quickly. Tim, I'm going to come to you in just a second. You know, Rory, I mentioned the idea of the big six right in the intro there. Can you just explain historically what that for the Premier League and how that sort of term came about?
- [04:06]
Rory Smith
Well, I'll polish off my kind of elbow patches here.
- [04:09]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Go on, teacher.
- [04:10]
Rory Smith
Strictly speaking, the term bid or top six actually dates back to the late 80s and the early 90s, the start of the Premier League, when you had six teams who. Who kind of guided the biggest clubs in the. In the old First Division to form this separate entity, initially under the auspices of the Football association, but separate from the Football League. And those teams were Manchester United, Liverpool Arsen, Arsenal, Tottenham Everton and I think Aston Villa, though I think Manchester City has sometimes kind of roped into it as well. They were the original kind of Breakaway 6. They were the engine behind this great change in English football's landscape. One that has been undeniably enormously successful. But I think the term as we use it really dates back to the early to mid 2000s, the first decade of this Century when you had what was called the top four, and that was Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. And they were the teams that for a few years just finished first to fourth all of the time in the Premier League. If you think kind of between maybe 2004 to 2008, 9. It was those four teams and everybody else was languishing some way off, to be perfectly honest. Obviously Liverpool didn't win the lead in that period, neither did Arsenal, but they finished first to fourth reliably. And then when Manchester City had its injection of cash in 2008 from Abu Dhabi and Tottenham became the first team to deny Manchester City what looked like its obvious place in the Champions League, we kind of adjusted as a football culture to the term bid six. So those are the six teams that you would associate with being the bid six. That is the traditional usage of the term.
- [05:49]
Ayo Akinwaleere
We've spoken about the underperformance of Manchester United and also spurs, but we've also got to give a little a ring to the performances of teams like Nottingham Forest have also had a solid injection of cash. Newcastle, solid injection of cash and Bournemouth as well, which are who are looking like the very strange outliers this season. And no one expected to see that.
- [06:08]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I think it's not overly complicated when you think, you know, if you get a good manager in place and with some solid, smart recruitment backed up by big investment, you know you are going to climb the league to an extent. I mean, it's probably inevitable that the league would get stronger from like the bottom up. When, you know, Burnley started earning more money in a year in terms of prize money and TV revenue than psg, I think was that a few years ago when Burnley finished bottom of the league and they were still earning more than psg? That's been the case for, for, for a little while in terms of this imbalance across European football when it comes to like buying players. I guess, you know, when you go back to like Stoker, like Arnautovic and, and Shaqiri, I think to be honest, what's, what's made the. Probably the biggest difference in the short term in the last few years is the hiring of good managers. Emery and Lopetegui going to like relegation threatened teams in, in Villa and Wolves in I think 2022. You can probably sort of trace it back to Pep Guardiola and the influence that he's had on English football in terms of if you go back to just before Pep was hired, say like 10 years ago and the kind of managers that were in the League, you're looking at Steve, Bruce, Warnock, Pardew, Nigel Pearson, Dice, Tim Sherwood, Sam Allardyce, Harry Redknapp. You know, this is half the league filled with this kind of what we would now term as old fashioned English managers. So I think that the landscape changed mostly because of Pep, a little bit because of Klopp. You know, it's progressive football everywhere you look now, Even the Nuno 30% model, it's still exhilarating, skillful football at the top end. So I think that's probably been the biggest change for me in the last few years. And Bournemouth obviously with Areola, Brentford with Frank Forest, with Nuno, you know, they're the ones to have benefited.
- [07:51]
Rory Smith
A lot of it has to do with smart thinking. If you think about some of the clubs who've come up and kind of established themselves in recent years in the Premier League, you're talking Brighton, Brentford, Bournemouth, particularly this season, they've come up with kind of a competitive edge. I think that's helped them close the gap, close that financial kind of revenue gap immeasurably. If you look at teams like Forest and Villa, they have benefited from the wealth of their owners, their ability to come up and spend a lot of money on their squads. And we obviously have to put an asterisk here where we say that Nottingham Forest had lots of players on loan in the championship and so they had to spend all that money on players, same as Villa when they came up. And then obviously a team close to Tim's heart. Wolves have been maybe not a kind of standard bearer in the same sense as Bournemouth or Brighton, but they worked out how to thrive in modern football pretty quickly. You establish a relationship with a really powerful agent and that's what they did. And they have benefited without question. Kind of the net benefit of being so closely aligned to George Mendes has helped Wolves establish themselves for getting on for 10 years now. I think as a Premier League team and I think across the board what you've seen is that kind of lower middle class of English football, which sounds patronizing but isn't meant to. It does sound patronizing to an extent. It is patronizing, but it's really not meant to. They have been able to of think their way around the problem, but across the board what's happened is the Premier League clubs are extraordinarily wealthy and it's natural to an extent that that has enabled loads of teams to attract a really high calibre of talent. And ultimately when you get to a certain level, yeah, all right, Brighton don't have players that are as good as Manchester City, but to be honest, the differences are relatively fine. You're not talking about teams that are being completely outclassed by their opponents. There is a quality gap, obviously, there is a depth gap, but. But it's become much smaller just because everyone involved in the whole thing is so rich.
- [09:40]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah, I like this idea of thinking your way out of the problem, Tim. You know, recruitment, as Rory's just pointed out, you know, is huge. Especially with the likes of Bournemouth, the likes of Brentford in particular. How important is that sort of data led approach as we're seeing? Because, you know, yes, perhaps depth might be an issue over the long course of the season, but actually the quality of players that are coming through are really solid.
- [10:05]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I guess, you know, if you're ambitious but can't quite compete financially with the clubs that you're sort of fighting against in the league, then it makes sense to try something inventive and creative. And obviously you've got Brighton with their incredible sort of scouting network, signing players from out of Mongolia and Brentford, you know, with their data and analytics. I think in terms of recruitment, PSR has definitely made a difference in the short term. I think certainly in terms of like pilfering the best talent in the Premier League going upwards. You look at, I don't know, you look at players like Isaac and Kunya and Buemo and Whistler at Brentford, it's perhaps inevitable that they'll still move up the league to one of the big six. But the selling club does have a, you know, a sort of a stronger financial hand, I guess because of the Premier League riches. But the buying club have to be mindful of psr, you know, Man United, I guess, being the, the current prime example. But in terms of recruitment, yeah, when you've got even Nielsen going to Bournemouth for 40 million, I mean, you know that that gap is inevitably going to shrink. That's. That couldn't happen sort of five, six, seven, ten years ago.
- [11:05]
Rory Smith
I think the PSR thing's really interesting. I wrote about this this week and it's a relatively new phenomenon, but I think it has changed the landscape a little bit more than we realize that obviously teams like Newcastle and Forest, who are the best examples, got two players, Alexander Isak and Murillo, who basically any team in Europe would want to sign. We know and we have known for a while now that there's not very many teams in Europe who could sign a. Let's use him as the example. Valencia 20 years ago Would probably have looked at a player at an upwardly mobile Premier League club and thought, okay, that's our potential target. Valencia are nowhere close to being up. Not just because Valencia are terrible, but that category of club in Europe now can't match the Premier League for wages or for glamour. So that basically reduces the market. Other Premier League teams know that shopping in England is an incredibly expensive business and have known that for a while. And obviously Evangelos Marinaki is probably not minded to struggle strength than West Ham or Brighton or Everton or Spurs or whoever. So it's difficult to get players out of English clubs if you are another English club. That's natural. That's always been the case. And obviously the wealth of the owners that everybody has means that most clubs are resistant to being predated effectively by their rivals. But the big shift now, I think, is psr, and obviously this is changing the summer to the squad cost calculation. But I think it'll have the same effect, which is that if you are Arsenal and you want to sign a striker and you're told, well, the starting rate for Alexander Isak is 150 million pounds, $180 million, you are going to think, well, hang on, that will take us either very close to or perhaps beyond our PSR limit, and you will think twice about signing that player. Which means if you're Isak or if you're Murillo, I'm not sure where your market is now. And that leads, obviously. And it was difficult, I think it's difficult for people to think of PSR as benefiting anyone other than the cosseted elite. But I think it leads to a greater spread of talent throughout the division because more players will say or will be told. I suppose either you really agitate for a move and a lot of players don't want to do that, or you kind of stay where you are on this massive, lucrative contract playing in the best lead in the world. And that means that, yeah, maybe Murillo does stay with Forest, certainly maybe he stays for a year or two more than he would have done previously. The same with Esac. And that enables those teams to build just a little bit. Because for all that fans focus on the way that PSR prevents their team spending, it has exactly the same impact on everybody else, which means it also, in the case of the Premier League, allows your team to retain talent. And that is just as important.
- [13:41]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah, very quickly. Just on that, Tim Rory, also in his piece, makes the argument that even for psr, what we might have also is the issue around homegrown talent. Right. Who are also seen as pure profit. My worry is you're then losing a whole heap of young English talent and this actually makes it quite different to many other leagues across Europe that maintain a lot of their national talent in a way that the Premier League doesn't anymore.
- [14:06]
Tim Spears
Yeah, you can say the same for players and managers. And you know, no English managers won the Premier League yet still unbelievably. And I think it's the same in all competitions, only six English managers have won trophies since 2008.
- [14:20]
Matt Slater
Is it?
- [14:20]
Tim Spears
So yeah, we do have this horrible tendency of losing our best talent overseas and PSR is only going to exacerbate that, I think. And European clubs are going to be the ones to benefit when it comes to signing those homegrown players.
- [14:36]
Matt Slater
You're listening to the Athletic FC podcast with IO Akinwalere.
- [14:42]
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- [15:05]
Lauren Dragan
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- [15:31]
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- [15:35]
Lauren Dragan
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- [15:36]
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- [16:02]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Right? Let's bring in our senior football reporter Matt Slater in now. Matt, we mentioned briefly about the financial power of the Big six a little earlier in revenue terms. Can you explain how big the gap is between that original Big six and also the rest of the current crop of the Premier League right now?
- [16:23]
Matt Slater
Yeah, I Mean, the timing is good because we've just had the Deloitte Moneyleague. So thank you, Deloitte, for helping us here. It's their annual report. I think it's their 28th or 29th, I can't remember where they look at club revenues, the big clubs, and they, you know, they rank them. And as Rory explained earlier, we really started to think about the Big Six, the current Big Six, in around 2009, 2010, I think it was. I think it was 2011, that 1011 season, where the Big Six finished in the top six. There'd been a few years just prior to that where five of the six had, I think Liverpool were the ones that sort of let the side down, but they were seventh. So it was coming. And then we had a few more years where, where one of them would, would, would finish seventh or eighth, but it was always five or six. And then we had a run. Well, Leicester won, of course, in 2016. Then there was a big reaction. We had three years in a row where it was the big six finishing the top six. And okay, it's got a little less obvious and a little less predictable in recent years, but it's sort of four or five of the six are up there now. Why? I guess now it's sort of a combination of things. One, these clubs have always been big, right? And again, Rory explained the history of it, and it's a sort of combination of UEFA money, Champions League money, being that kind of that rocket booster, that access to that extra revenue stream that the rest of the Premier League clubs that weren't making European competition, particularly the Champions League, didn't have, and then being able to sort of kind of build on that, that kind of compounding effect, you know, it's the best stage. You get better sponsors. You also get extra match days, big match days, more excitement, and everything is kind of a virtuous circle. So that's what, that's, that's, that's where. That's how it happened. And you can see that in the Deloitte Money League over the years, the big six in England, and I know there's always been sort of a good debate around are they the best six? Why are spurs there, you know, or why are such and such team there? They don't win enough. There's been a clear gap between them and whoever has been seventh, eighth or ninth in the Premier League. And you know, Leicester Villa, West Ham, Brighton have all had their moments, particularly Leicester having actually won it, having actually come fifth twice, having actually won an FA cup, having gone to a, you know, a Champions League, you know, latter rounds, they've never really bridged that revenue gap. So it's like their time in the elite has been almost too closely aligned to sporting success. The reason the big six are the big six, and this is where I think it's really interesting to look at them now because for a decade or so they appear to have sort of decoupled the relationship between sporting success and financial success. They were too big to fail to use that analogy from the banking crisis, because they had big stadiums, global sponsors, famous players, famous managers. They could afford to have a duff year or two. That I think is the difference. And there's been a consistent gap between them, a revenue gap of 100 to 150 million this year. I just had a look, but it did feel like things were tightening up. The gap between the lowest of the big six in the money league, which this year is Chelsea. Spurs and Chelsea are very pretty actually. They're not actually as close as they were actually because Chelsea didn't have such a good year last year. But spurs are in ninth in the global list. Chelsea are 10th. The big six have been in the top 10 for a decade or more. The next best is Newcastle at 15th. Now there is a 145 million pound revenue gap. The one thing that Deloitte don't count is player trading. So that's that. That could change it. I suspect it wouldn't change it actually that much for these two clubs. In fact, it would actually probably help Chelsea. But that is fairly consistent, that gap. Now to go back to some of the points the lads were making earlier about, well, so what's changed? Why does it feel a bit different? And it's because the Premier League is so bloody rich and you can only field 11 players, right? And yes, as Tim points out, that means they've been able to go out and get really good managers. And as Roy points out, they can all go out and get great players. 14 of the top 30 richest teams in the world are in the Premier League. That takes you all the way down to almost the relegation spaces. And we're talking about teams like, I'm not being rude here, but kind of, you know, your Brightons and your Crystal Palaces, teams that historically have spent most of the time in the EFL. We're talking about tier two, tier three teams up until about, you know, the last 10, 20 years. Your presence in the Premier League immediately elevates you over most of the good teams in all the big European leagues. So that's what's interesting. The Big six have a clear revenue gap and I think it's because there's that big too big to fail point. They have global brands and it insulates them from a bad year or two. I think it gets interesting, it becomes three or four. And I think, you know, Manchester United are possibly really too big to fail. But I do wonder about Chelsea or Spurs, you know, more recent additions to our kind of aristocracy, to our super elite. But that's why. And they are a real thing. But that doesn't mean we just sort of give up. You know, things change in English football history and I wonder if we're actually in one of those periods now.
- [21:56]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah. Rory, do you buy that Manchester United are too big to fail historically, financially, and I guess perhaps of their financial might to a certain degree. We actually did a podcast on it very recently. It allows them to maybe take a few more risks than the likes of Bournemouth, for instance, who are trying to emerge into this sort of elite space.
- [22:16]
Rory Smith
Yeah, I mean, they're doing their best and we should give them credit for this to really test that theory to the limits. Manchester United, aren't they? And they, you know, fair play for that, I think. Yeah, I mean, I agree with Matt. I think there was certainly a time until relatively recently where their wealth was so great. Mostly true for United, but true for some of the others as well. Their wealth was so great that there was like a flaw to how far they could fall. The worst conceivable scenario for any of those teams was probably finishing eighth and you'd have to be really bad to finish eighth. Jose Mourinho obviously did his best at Chelsea to disprove that by finishing 10th. I think what's happened now because the middle class have caught up, because as Matt says, you can only field 11 players and because the scouting systems are so good, because the recruitment of managers is so good, but basically because the other teams are so good for the most part, I think that flaw has slipped a little bit and it is now conceivable that both United and Spurs will finish in the bottom half of the table. The difference is I think that that middle class have to continue getting everything right. Brentford and Brighton and Bournemouth and all of the others, even Villa and Newcastle, they don't really have room. If Newcastle, say, this summer, make a couple of bad signings and they don't really work out, then they could well be back to 10th next season, which wouldn't be a disaster, but they would lose ground on those teams chasing for The Champions League because the race is so kind of breakneck. United, there is always the chance that they jump the pack because they have so much money, that that revenue gap that Matt talks about will at some point be brought to bear and you will never end up with a world in which Manchester United. You can say for certain that Manchester United can't make a fair different to their fortunes in the space of one summer. Whereas with Newcastle or Villa or Everton, once they move into the new stadium, now that they've got ownership, or Brighton or Bournemouth or Brentford or any of those teams that we think of as being the upwardly mobile forces, I think they've got a much finer margin for error. If Brighton's recruitment goes bad one year, then they probably won't get relegated, but they'd lose a lot of ground and the model might have to kind of almost start again. For United, as for Liverpool now, for City, for Arsenal, for spurs, for Chelsea, you can be bad for certainly a year, probably two, maybe even three. And at some point just the sheer weight of money behind you means that you will be able to rectify those mistakes.
- [24:34]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Tim, do you think this could be that season where we see a challenge enough that as Rory's just said, because, you know, spurs aren't far from being relegated, but I guess historically you just feel like it's just not going to happen to spurs or maybe this is that season.
- [24:47]
Tim Spears
No, I don't think so. I think they're just having a bit of a. Bit of a freakish run. I don't see them getting relegated. I think they'll probably make an addition or two before the month is out. I mean, I'd like to think that, that this is a trend that's going to continue and that, you know, we might get surprise, smaller teams breaking into top six every season. But, you know, the revenue table, as Matt has pointed out, sort of suggests not really. You know, as a fan of a team that hasn't finished in the top six for 45 years, you know, I'd like to think there's a possibility of wolves making it in there one day. But what, what wolves did they, as Roy pointed out earlier, got everything right. You know, they had huge investment, ambitious owners, they hired a bit of a genius manager, they had an agent bringing in players that they would never ever be able to do previously. And it was still only good enough for seventh twice. You know, they couldn't break into that glass ceiling. And I know the owners were incredibly frustrated with the fact that they would have to basically spend what they'd already spent to get to seventh again to sort of break in. If Wolves had done that in the early 90s, then they might have won the league. Maybe they could have done a Blackburn. But as a fan of a team, you know, looking to break into that top six, it feels like it's never going to happen because of that revenue gap is still, as Matt has pointed out, it's still so huge.
- [26:03]
Matt Slater
Yeah. Plucky Wolves, the 29th richest team in the world.
- [26:09]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Can you believe it, though? I mean, that is just the might of the Premier League. It's insane.
- [26:12]
Matt Slater
Yeah, I mean, that's. Look, I completely agree with both Rory and Tim. I do think we might be in one of those moments and we won't really know for a year or two. And it is going to take someone like a Newcastle or Villa who appear to be quite focused and incredibly ambitious. I'm not saying that Newcastle aren't focused and ambitious too, but Villa are really kind of walking around with their chest puffed out. You can just see the way they're voting, the things they're getting annoyed about. They're behaving like an elite club. There's definitely been a sense, and I think Rory makes a good point, that this is, I suppose, both the beauty and the unique selling point and the marketing genius of the Premier League. We've seen just enough kind of competitive excitement, if you like, some jeopardy. Leicester being the most obvious example. But as we, I think pointed out earlier on, the big six have only been in the top six once in the last five years. That was only three seasons ago. And it has, as I said, been five of the six or four of the six pretty much every year for 15 years. But it's not. Not La Liga, is it? It's not the Scottish Premier League, it's not the Bundesliga. There's been enough. And I think there is this sense though. And again, I think Rory made the point of almost flying too close to the sun. And that's the difference between the big six and the rest. Right. Leicester, I think are the other, you know, the poster boys here, right? They go, they really do ruffle feathers. Then they get relegated and they may well get relegated again, you know, so that I think we get into them sort of PSR and the Moats, that may be the big six of put around themselves and how you have to continue to be good on the pitch. Those other clubs haven't decoupled. Those other clubs haven't got so famous that, as Edward famously said at Manchester United, sporting success doesn't really matter, you know, we'll still make money. That's not true yet for Wolves, even though wolves are the 29th richest team in the world and you shouldn't feel sorry for them.
- [28:09]
Ayo Akinwaleere
You mentioned psr, Matt, and it's perfect time to bring it up as we've had so many conversations on, on this podcast. But you know, Rory makes the point that because of PSR and things are looking to change in the immediate future, that, you know, teams like Newcastle, for instance, as you've mentioned, can hold on to their best players because, you know, the value of Isak right now is quite high. There's not many Premier League teams that can afford to buy him without thinking about either selling or PSR regulations in that respect. So technically that big six can't just cherry pick, pick from their closest rivals.
- [28:44]
Matt Slater
No, I mean, I see it a little bit differently to Rory. I take a lot of what he says. I just think that anytime you're going to attempt to apply your rulebook, so bravo Premier League. You should get a reaction. It's a regulatory response. You should get some sort of reaction. And that's what we've had for the last couple of years. And I, for me think the big thing is how the the Premier League as a group responded to Covid. And this has really been a long time coming. This reckoning we've had of the last year or two has been a reaction to the entire football industry globally really struggling with COVID Obvious, right? They had to shut the doors for a year. The Premier League emerging from that because of its big TV deal and because it did actually respond quite well to Covid, it got playing again. Others didn't necessarily. The commercial deals, the biggest sort of emerged strongest. The response from pretty much every single Premier league club in 21:22 was to go shopping. They went shopping. The rest of the world didn't. So the Premier League's percentage of the overall transfer spend went from the usual half of it to 90% of it. And then everyone sort of thought, wasn't that exciting because we love transfers. But no one sort of thought would.
- [30:02]
Rory Smith
Jo, hold on a minute.
- [30:03]
Matt Slater
They're all losing money now. The Premier League wasn't really losing money going into Covid. It was sort of washing its face. They're all losing money now. They haven't really bounced back. Not probably. They bounce back, but not all the way. And as we know, because we've talked about amortization probably too many times on this podcast, there's a delayed effect to transfer spending. Not Just in your wage bill, but in the actual how you account for a transfer spread out over the period of the contract. There's been a response. There has been a response and it has hit them all, because that upper threshold, that 105 million you're allowed to lose has not shifted. Aston Villa tried to shift it. It's not been adjusted for inflation. We are now moving to a different system and it's more generous, but it's still a soft salary cap connected to your ability to earn. That, if you like, connection between how much you bring through the door and how much you spend will exist. And that, of course, does help the bigger clubs. But I do think that what's really happened here in this sort of like, kind of mini chapter of history, the last year or two, where we have seen the bigger clubs restrained and we have seen, if you like, the middle class be able to say, we've got a great player because we're rich and because we were able to go out and buy him from a club that's possibly bigger than us in another league, but we've got the cash at the moment, we've got the Premier League TV contracts and we've got our commercial sponsors. So we've got that player. We can now hold on to him. I think that is interesting and I think PSR has played a role. I just think that the bit I want to add is I think this is a delayed response to the way the English football industry responded to Covid. It sounds like I'm being very critical, as though that was an insane thing to do. I think it was a risky thing to do, but I think it was quite classic game theory. The rest of them are struggling. We're struggling a little less than the rest of them. Should we go for it? I don't think they colluded. I just think they all kind of came to the same conclusion. Let's go shopping now, Tim.
- [32:01]
Ayo Akinwaleere
I just want to move this on slightly and, you know, as. As a fan of the 29th richest club in the world and a. A fan of a team that's almost touched top six. What. What do you expect from a team like Wolves? Do you expect your team to try and threaten that top six? I know more conversations now about Premier League survival for Wolves, but, like, what.
- [32:23]
Rory Smith
What.
- [32:23]
Ayo Akinwaleere
What is the expectation for a team like that in distance, but obviously, for various reasons, haven't been able to do it over a long period of time.
- [32:32]
Tim Spears
Having sort of got so, so close to it and finished seventh twice and then sort of, you know, Report another club at the time and speaking to the owners, you know, fairly regularly about what it would take to do that again, they felt it was almost impossible to sort of buy their way in and stay there. So they've looked at other routes. They've looked at generating revenues from things like esports, fashion, the Wolves clothing brand in. In Chang in Shanghai. You know, I went out and saw it. It didn't last too long, to be honest. Wasn't too much interest. So, yeah, I don't know. It's, it's, it's, it's pretty difficult. And as a fan, it's pretty dispirited. And I think we've seen it. Wolves, the atmosphere at Molyneux just falling off a cliff, to be honest. You're already kind of hearing of fans saying, well, we need a bit of a reset. Let's go back to the Championship, win a few games and enjoy ourselves again. You know, it is. It is pretty depressing and monotonous and we've seen it at Stoke. I don't think Leeds enjoy their time in the Premier League too much. West Brom got pretty bored of it by the end. You know, if you're not competing for trophies and you can't break in the top six, it's pretty boring, to be honest. The Premier League won't care about that and fans of the big six won't care about that. But yeah, as a product, okay, it's not Scotland, it's not Germany, but it is pretty boring for the majority of the country when it is the same teams competing for the league again, again every single year. But that's, that's just not going to change now. That's just the reality.
- [33:53]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Rory, isn't this part of our issue is that like, let's say there are certain teams that are outliers, end up playing European football and even a team like Aston Villa who have seemed to have. Are trying to break through, it's still that conversation of can you sustain it? So that conversation of have you got a big enough squad to maintain this? Does your league form slip whilst you. You're enjoying some sort of European success and next season, are you able to do it again?
- [34:17]
Rory Smith
Yeah, I suppose in a way it's kind of a natural. It's a natural corrective that I don't think anyone designed this way, but it performs that function. So if you are an inverted commas elite team, you have the most money, you have the best players, you have the best manager, but you have this thing where you also have to play Far more football matches and that necessarily kind of puts a greater strain on your squad and that should in a normal kind of functioning ecosystem that should improve competitive balance effectively. Just the big teams should have the best players but also they're quite tired so they maybe can't perform to their best on both fronts which brings them back to the pack domestically. What we've seen and Matt mentioned decoupling. I think what we saw over the last 10, 15 years is that that natural bond was broken because the big teams, the elite teams could run such massive, such high quality squads. I think what you' with Villa and Newcastle over the last couple of years and those competitions that they really have to kind of play their strongest team. If you're in the Europa League you can make a few changes during the group stage, you'll probably be fine. That tends to have more of an impact later on in the season where you are starting to think okay, there's a trophy to be won here. It is a major trophy. The Europa League is derided a little bit as the Conference League is, but they are major trophies. Teams take them seriously. The impact from those tournaments is later on. It's April, May when it's quarters and semis and final time. I think for the group stage you can reserves. It's quite a useful way of keeping them fit, of keeping players happy because obviously they all have squads of 20, 22, 24 players and those players all want to play. They would prefer to play in the Premier League but if they have to play in the Europa League then it helps keep morale up. I think what we've seen with Villa and Newtas in the Champions League is that it's really hard to become. You can buy a good, you know, you can buy or acquire or rear however you want to do it. A really good like first 15. It's really hard to then kick on and have a deep enough squad that is used to the burden of meaningful games a week. Newcastle were a great example of it last season. Villa have I think fairly obviously suffered from it this season. That is maybe one of those natural moats that the elite have that they are used to doing it, they know what it requires, they are able to attract those players. So maybe actually that is one of the and I am to an extent theorizing off the top of my head here, maybe that is one of those things that helps. Maybe that's where the revenue gap that still exists. Maybe that's where it comes into play that you can have a competitive domestic, you can have a lead Where Nottingham Forest are third, where Bournemouth look like the best team in the country at the moment, where Manchester United are 12th and Tottenham are 15th, you can have this kind of brilliant competitive balance. That means for the first time in 30 years, the premier League is actually fulfilling its own marketing spiel. But the difference is that only the teams who are used to it, only the teams who have the amount of money that the top six still do, maybe they're the only sorts of teams that can actually compete on two fronts.
- [37:16]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Okay, right, before we move on, I just want to say thanks for joining us, Matt. Really appreciate your time and your insight in this section.
- [37:21]
Tim Spears
No worries.
- [37:22]
Matt Slater
See you guys.
- [37:33]
Rory Smith
This is the Athletic FC podcast with IO Acemolara.
- [37:40]
Ayo Akinwaleere
All right, let's wrap up with a bit of a January transfer window focus for one of the clubs we've actually talked about already today, Spurs. I mean, the January transfer window is only a couple of days still open. Tim, can spurs spend their way out of trouble?
- [37:55]
Tim Spears
You say about sort of spending their way out of trouble and it's not really the spurs way to sort of throw money at problems, but they have spent an awful lot of money in the past 18 months. Obviously they had decayed money certainly helps, you know, 100 million quid to spend. But you know, you look at some of the fees, you know, Solanke, 65 million, Archie Gray 40, Van de Ven, 40, Madison was 40, Poirot the same, Johnson 47 million. It's an awful lot of money to be not very far above the relegation zone. There's something, there's so many things you can go into with Spurs. You know, I covered them for a year and I still don't know really know what they are in terms of their identity and the feeling about the place and what they want to be. You know, they've got this sort of trophy obsession which might, they might win a trophy in the next few weeks. I think that obsession kind of comes more from outside the club rather than inside, actually. But I don't think even winning the Carabao cup changes very much in terms of getting rid of this. I mean, Jack Pitt brook called them 18 month FC, I think a few weeks ago in terms of Mourinho and Conte getting 18 months and Ange, you know, now seemingly on the precipice. I think you've got to look like above the head coach. You've got to look at the recruitment team and, and the owners and the, the chairman, basically. As to fixing Spurs, I don't think they will go Down IO as much as you. As much as you're trying to talk it up. But yeah, there are some serious issues. You know, long tip. Spurs have got the, I was reading this week, they've got the lowest wage to revenue ratio in the whole league. So yeah, as, as and just sort of hinted at, repeated as postcoglov's hinted at repeatedly. Maybe the culture of the club just isn't geared towards what the fans want. And the Only constant over 25 years is Daniel Levy.
- [39:31]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah, Rory is good business. Spurs are still making money. Admits where they are in the league at the moment. But you know, after the defeat to Leicester, you know, there's a banner stating, you know, 24 years, 16 managers, one trophy. I mean, you can't begrudge the spurs fans for wanting a bit more. You've got a shiny new stadium, you say you're bringing brand new players into the club. You're saying you've got this manager who's going to change the way football's been played at Spurs. More exciting football, hopefully more European football. Let's not forget the go kart track under, under the stadium as well. It's, it's, it's a, it's a revenue boosting organization, but yet still not winning anything.
- [40:06]
Rory Smith
Yeah, I think it's easy, it's really easy to deride fans to, to. I do a lot of work with Chris Sutton and he's brilliant at it. You know, to, to kind of act as though fans are being entitled or expecting too much or to, to kind of suggest they're being unrealistic, effectively. But I think with spurs fans it's absolutely fair now, now for them to say, well, look, we appear to be on a journey that doesn't have a destination. That they have done the thing where they buy young players and they bring them up and then they sell them for massive profits. Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, Harry Kane is a slightly different case. But they've done that and then they've reinvested the money in the squad and it's right, now we're gonna go. And then they've sold those players as well for bid profits, and then they've bought some more players for slightly higher sums and they've got better. They've established themselves in the Champions League, they've built a new stadium, they've hired some really smart manager, particularly Maurizio Pochettino, and yet they always seem to find themselves right back at the start. And I can see why that frustration is directed at Daniel Levy. Not because fans don't understand that he has in a. In very much in a business sense, done a really good job with Spurs. The spurs could easily have been left behind as, as Everton were, as Newcastle were for a while, as Villa were for a while. Spurs have always really been relevant. They, as we started out talking about, you know, in 2008, 2009, when they were kind of anointed as members of the top six, the big six, they should really. Spurs really should have been kind of a forgotten force by that stage. And the fact that Daniel Levy has run the club so well as a business is what prevented them from falling basically into the same sort of obscurity, the same frustration as say, Everton, original members of the top six in the 80s. The problem is that they are just treading water. Even if they, I'm the same as Tim. I think they're not going to get relegated. In all reality, they're not going down. But they'll come out of this season, maybe with a new manager, maybe the same manager. They'll buy some more players. I think that there will never be a point at which spurs in its current incarnation is able or willing to take the final step to try and be a team that matches the elite. But I can understand the frustration that the fans feel that they're not actually trying. They're trying to get to a certain point and then keep themselves at that point forever. They feel a bit like one of the, like a hero. Hero's maybe not the right word, but like a character from Greek myth who kind of has the grapes just out of their reach, always fleeing away from their grasp. That's what spurs are. And that is, after a while, an intensely frustrating experience to live.
- [42:37]
Ayo Akinwaleere
Yeah, for sure. Let's leave it there, gents. I really appreciate your time. Rory, Tim and obviously Matt Slater who joined us earlier as well. Make sure to keep track of the Afro Athletics transfer deal sheet. Only a couple of days left. The latest one is available to read right now. Thanks so much for listening.
- [42:55]
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- [43:02]
Matt Slater
Hello, I'm.
- [43:03]
Ian McIntosh
Ian McIntosh and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing. What is the Daily Football Briefing? It's a special 10 minute daily show designed to bring you up to speed with the most important, important stories from across the football world. Except on Monday mornings when it's 15 minutes and we try to cram in the results, standings and stories from the top 10 leagues on the planet. Or at least the top 10 leagues that I run on a football manager save. Follow this show today and you'll never miss another big story again. Whether it's news that the Athletic has just broken David Ornstein what happened? News from outside the Premier League that other podcasts might ignore.
- [43:36]
Matt Slater
That is a difficult one to explain. So let's go bit by I beat.
- [43:39]
Ian McIntosh
Or it's Champions League week and you just need someone to put it all into context.
- [43:42]
Ayo Akinwaleere
It's made for a very useful away point in a difficult game in a difficult week.
- [43:48]
Ian McIntosh
Listen to the Daily football briefing in 2025. It's out every weekday. Wherever you get your podcast.