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- [00:01]
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- [00:27]
Noah Chestnut
Hey, it's Noah Chestnut from the Athletic. If you're into games and sports, pay attention. I'm gonna give you four sports terms. You tell me the common thread. Ready? Game. Match point. Set. This one's kind of a gimme. The answer is how tennis is scored. Do you want more of a challenge? Check out Connections Sports Edition. It's a new daily game for sports fans to play. Now go to TheAthletic.com connection.
- [01:01]
Athletic FC
The Athletic.
- [01:02]
Allstate Advertiser
FC Podcast Network.
- [01:09]
Ayo Akimolere
Welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Ayo Akimolere. Last season marked the first time since 1998 that all three promoted Premier League teams were relegated. It looks like history may repeat itself this season after another miserable weekend for Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton. So will all three go down? And if so, what does it say about the gap between the Premier League and the championship? With us today we have the Athletic, Stu James and Phil Hay as well. Now, Stu, great piece on the subject this week. Now you referenced an air of resignation for the promoted teams. Now before we get into that, firstly let's hear what the respective managers of those teams had to say after their defeats at the weekend drops here for Henchuan, it's four for Brighton Southampton on this form heading down and out. Incredible difference between two, two teams. Awful game disaster. And we really play really bad.
- [02:18]
Athletic FC
Kuleshevski, Brilliant.
- [02:22]
Phil Hay
A fine cap and an overall good spurs performance.
- [02:26]
Ayo Akimolere
And this game now firmly out of.
- [02:28]
Phil Hay
Ipswich's reach as well. It is what it is. We know we got a big challenge to stay in the division. Of course, when you're in this position now, it's not on our hands. So a lot of teams win all their games then you know we can't control that.
- [02:42]
Ayo Akimolere
Well, here's a chance to try and.
- [02:43]
Phil Hay
Make it for they've got it. Ancar Valo puts his name on the score sheet too. Well, Brentford take all three points home. Leicester badly beaten.
- [02:54]
Athletic FC
The difference today between us and Brentford was big. Was too big. And we have to acknowledge that.
- [03:09]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, Evan Juic Rud Van Nistroyd and Kieran McKenna, all pretty downbeat. They're just looking at the points tallies. Ipswich and Leicester are five points from safety. That's 17 points. While Southampton, I mean Southampton in Single figures still nine points at the moment. Just two wins and 21 defeats. Stu. Now do you get the sense that there won't be much movement in this relegation battle? This is it. These are our final three.
- [03:36]
Athletic FC
I think it looks that way. I own now. It's. It's hard to come to any other conclusion really. And actually five points isn't that much, is it? You know, you're talking obviously a couple of wins, but it's a couple of wins in the context of how they've performed across this season. You know, when you've only got 17 points, as is the case with obviously Ipswich and, and Leicester, it feels a big ass to suddenly get a couple of results. And obviously that means Wolves not picking up points too. I think realistically it's three from four, you know, clearly. I know I've seen some Man United supporters talking about relegation, but they're on 30 points level with West Ham. There's a big gap. 15th, 16th to the bottom three. And I don't see Ipswich or Leicester, forget Southampton, Ipswich or Leicester getting near to 30 points, to be honest with you. So can they catch Wolves? Obviously, yes, mathematically. But the mom momentum really feels against them now. I think for Southampton, it's just been a humiliating season really, and one where the only goal as I see it now, is to avoid going down with the lowest points total ever, which is obviously Derby County. So they need. They need three points to avoid that. A miserable campaign. But yeah, I do feel, I think when you listen to the managers too, you can hear the resignation in their voices, particularly with Van Nistelrooy after Friday night and also with Jurich after the, you know, the awful result against. Against Brighton at the weekend. And, you know, I just took a look at the table really, and thought and realized that all got, you know, all obviously lost. And then I was sort of thinking, hang on, they all got. They all got hammered at home as well. They all had four goals put past them and with all due respect, they weren't losing to top six teams either. So I think it just paints quite a. Quite a damning picture, really. I feel some sympathy for it switch because I think Kieran McKenna's done an incredible job. So I feel bad. Putting them in the same bracket is Southampton and Leicester, which I feel are two different stories but yeah, I think Wolves will look at that now. It was a huge result for them obviously at Bournemouth the weekend too. Cunha's scoring goals without him. It might be different, but my feeling is that it was probably done. Yeah.
- [05:42]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, Phil, I'm the same as Stuart the romantic him. He thought Ipswich might fight this season. Decent attacking options and McKenna in his style of football as well. But I mean, let's just compound it for Southampton. Know there was a. There's a quote that stood out from Evan Jurich at the weekend and he says, you know, we have to be honest, they tried to play in one way and it was bad under the management of obviously Russell Martin. Now we try to change and it's still bad. I mean this sort of suggests really that no matter what style of play you give Southampton, it just looked doomed from the beginning. Right.
- [06:14]
Phil Hay
Yeah. Phil marks for self deprecation and I get the sense that Judic isn't somebody who particularly pulls punches and likes to see what he means. Stu is right about the tone of resignation and I think also right to say that it's not as if Southampton were playing Liverpool or Leicester were playing Arsenal. Neither Duric nor Van Nistelrooy. They were trying to pretend that it was fine margins involved. They were both basically saying, look, there is a big gulf to Brentford and Brighton, both of whom are incredibly well organized clubs and have really clear strategies that definitely work. But. But are not your best teams in the division by any stretch. I mean, Southampton fall into that classic category of clubs who, you know, haven't really helped themselves. I won't pretend that them staying up wasn't long odds from the start, but they pushed the Russell Martin envelope far beyond its natural life and I think longer than, you know, beyond the point where you could see that it clearly wasn't working, by which point it was really too late anyway. And they've gone for Duric who quite honestly didn't seem to represent an obvious answer to the. The trouble that they were in. I'm not so sure that it'll be the answer in the Championship either, but. But we'll see. Ipswich, as you both mentioned, are a far more stable model and do have more purpose. And I feel like they've made more of a fist of it under McKenna. It's not going to be enough, I don't think. But I get the sense that McKenna look back at plenty of games, plenty of points that have got away from them this season and have regrets about that. They're a bottom three side, but the Fight margins. I mentioned earlier, they haven't been particularly good to tip switch. All the same, you can't ignore the trend. It's three promoted clubs relegated last season, probably looking at three promoted clubs going down this season. Again, the fair number of factors involved. And we have to have a conversation as well about how this is affecting the championship as a contest too, because that's very much related to this discussion. But essentially the leap has become extremely difficult and in reality, promotion itself isn't really what opens the door to happy life in the Premier League. I think staying up in season one one is a much more meaningful step towards that. And you see that with Brighton and Bournemouth and Brentford as well, the perfect examples of it. But being the fourth worst team in the division is nowhere near as easy as it sounds.
- [08:36]
Ayo Akimolere
We'll talk about finances later, Stu. But is it that between these three teams, I guess Ipswich to a certain degree might be different, but how clubs are run strategies. And you look at Brighton, as Phil's also mentioned, and how astute that is. Look at Brentford for instance, and how astute that is in their model and how they find their players. I mean, is there anything we can sort of clump together with these three newly promoted teams that are now going down that we see those similarities in there?
- [09:04]
Athletic FC
Yeah, I think, I mean, you look back at Brighton and that was a bit of a battle to stay up, as I remember it, that first season with Chris Hewton. And then they had a real change, didn't they, in terms of how they played. Bringing in Graham Potter, which at the time some Brighton fans were like, why are we taking this guy who finished 10th in the championship? And obviously Tony Bloom had a clear vision of what he wanted to do. Their recruitment has been amazing. When I look at the three clubs, I think there's a very obvious point to make and it's. It is state in the obvious. The players there simply aren't good enough. And I look at some of the. I looked at the results the weekend, looked them in a bit more detail, made a couple of notes on, on the squads. And you look at Ipswich losing to Tottenham. So Tottenham had on the bench, Madison 40 million, Basuma 25 million, Pedro Poro 40 million, SA 15 million, 120 million pounds. We can talk about Ipswich spending over 100 million. Tottenham had four players on the bench worth more than that. And then you go to a Brighton who, yeah, we think not one of the biggest clubs in the Premier league. They had O'Reilly 25 million, Stupenham 15 million, Gruda 25 million. V for 25 million. So there's 90 million on their bench. So we're not talking about Mitoma or Joao, Pedro or Rutter who are scoring the goals, setting up goals. This is their bench and that's what those clubs are up against. I think you know a key word you mentioned, there are strategy. I look at Leicester. So Leicester came up playing possession based football under Maresca. That was their model at that time. Okay, Maresca leaves. There's nothing you can do about that. He goes to Chelsea. But then you bring in Steve Cooper. Steve Cooper plays a completely different way tactically. So I don't see how you can jump from one to the other. Obviously Southampton put all their faith in Russell Martin's expansive open football. It didn't work quite simply. I don't think it was ever going to work at that level with that calibre of player. I think you need a far higher technical player. And then there's a whole other debate now about actually, are we seeing the end of possession football anyway in terms of what's happened at the top of the Premier League this season with Guardiola, etc. Yeah, Ipswich is. Ipswich is a different one because I think you can get away from the fact of where they were a couple of years ago and I know we'll probably come on to talk about that, but I think like Phil said, they haven't been that far off and in the lapp they've had something that the other two haven't had, which is actually a fairly prolific scorer. That's quite something to sign someone who hits the ground running a young player in the Premier League and does really well and they'll get a really big return when they sell the lap in the summer for sure. But I look at the others. Leicester are still relying on Vardy at 38 and Southampton's top scorer has three. That tells you probably all you need to know, really.
- [11:34]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, Phil, Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton. Currently on course, I think to finish the season with total of 63 points they have, that would be just two fewer wins I know than Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton who went down last season. Can we draw any sort of comparisons between the three relegated teams I've just spoken about and also the ones that that left the Premier League last season?
- [11:57]
Phil Hay
To an extent, Leicester feel like a bit more of an outlier in that we're talking about fairly recent Premier League champions and FA cup winners. And I don't think prior to them suddenly getting into trouble out of. Out of nowhere really, nobody thought of them as a yo yo club, they'd seem to have gone well beyond that. But their season's been an absolute car crash and I wonder if in hindsight they'll regret two things. One, having committed to Steve Cooper, which for me also seemed like a very strange choice of coach, they sort of gave up on him at a point where, yeah, the mood at Leicester was not great and it was getting quite toxic. But you know, they were far from down at that point. They were very much in the mix and far more so than they are at the moment. I also wonder if they'll regret punting on Van Nistelrooy and I'm not sure this really reflects on him, but they were in a situation where they couldn't particularly afford to experiment and, and it hasn't, hasn't gone well. Doesn't look like it's going to go well this season. That said, I think the problems at Leicester are far bigger than either Cooper or of Anastelroy. But Ipswich aren't established in the way that, you know, Sheffield United went last season. Burnley going down last season. A little bit like Southampton now. I wouldn't say been circling the drain for a while, but been looking over the shoulder before it got to the point of no return. The basic problem is that enhancing your squad from the championship, the standard needed there to the Premier League is nigh on impossible to do quickly or to do overnight. The financials are such a, such a big obstacle and I'm sure we'll come into this, but so is profit and sustainability is a handicap in these circumstances. Stu mentioned the transfer fees there. It's not only the transfer fees. A lot of people in the game will tell you that the thing that gets you really quality players is, is very high wages and high wages are one of the things that are so difficult to sustain and so difficult to pay for, particularly when you're facing PSR restrictions. But on the flip side, you know, don't ignore the fact that three of the sides relegated in 2023 finished top four in the Championship last season. Current top three at the moment all went down in the past two years. So we've got this sort of unhealthy switcheroo where teams who come up can't cope with the standard or find it very difficult to cope with the standard, but the championship broadly can't cope with most of the teams who are, who are going down. I mean the plans are fit at the moment in the US to introduce promotion and relegation there. Pro Rail as they call it. Over in the States and most of world football would say that having promotion and relegation is a virtue, you know, is a good thing. But what we are seeing here isn't the system as it was meant to be.
- [14:36]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, just on the point of Ipswich, Stu, because I want to move on to the next section is that, you know, the gulf between being in the top flight and then leaving it for such a long period of time and then coming back is so large and you know, 20 odd years that Ipswich hadn't been in the Premier League or top flight football and they come back again. I mean it's a whole different kind of league, It's a whole different playing field. And I mean, I don't think it's any surprise. We've probably seen that actually it's just a little too much for them. But then again, what's to say that they might come back next season?
- [15:07]
Athletic FC
Ye, absolutely. And that's why I said what I did earlier. I feel it's very unfair to, you know, compare them and talk about them in the same breath as Southampton and Leicester because the circumstances are so different and everyone can talk about. I mentioned it in the piece, the fact that they spent a lot of money in the summer. I think the 13th highest spend in world football. I mean that says a lot about the Premier League. Not just, not so much, you know, Ipswich Town really. But you're trying to play this game of catch up but then you've got to look at actually what did the spending look like before that? You know, so there would have been other Premier League clubs, the established ones who've been spending year on year strengthening their squads, as Phil says, playing big wages. And you look back at Ipswich, I looked. So the season before this it was 4.7 million, then it was 2 million, then it was 2.6, then it was zero. So actually the four years before they spent a total of 9.3 million. You know, that won't really buy one Premier League player at one of the other squads. So how can you possibly hope to compete? It can be done. You know, Phil covered Leeds, who did it, and you have an absolutely exceptional coach in Bielsa. And Phil knows this narrative far better than me. But I've spoken to a couple of the Leeds players and they talk about the extent, not to which Bielsa was a brilliant team coach, but he made individual players better too. So in a perfect situation, I don't want to say, you know, we're at this point now where it's going to be forever, God help us, if it is that the same three are going up and down, but you need everything really to fall into place. And I do think McKenna is a really good coach and I think he'll probably go on to bigger and better things. But realistically, were Ipswich going to have a chance of staying up this season? You know, not really. It would also probably say more about one of the other Premier League teams being awful than Ipswich being good if it did happen. And I think when you look back a few years ago, season Leeds went down, Phil, which was a chaotic season, but you also look more at the teams who've been there a long time then Leicester nine season, Southampton 11. You know, you've got to make a series of really calamitous decisions. Now. Wolves have had a terrible season. If you spoke to Wolves fans, it's been miserable. They're not close to averaging a point per game and they've still got breathing space. And that is kind of a worrying narrative, I'd say, for English football at the minute.
- [17:16]
Ayo Akimolere
Coming up, we'll ask, can promoted clubs spend their way to survival?
- [17:23]
Athletic FC
You're listening to the Athletic FC podcast with IO acamolere.
- [17:31]
Ayo Akimolere
Phil. With clubs like Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton spending a lot of money. We've already spoken about about it, yes. Still struggling. Nevertheless, what does that tell us about, I guess the financial gap then we've got between those promoted teams and the already established Premier League clubs? Because, you know, Stu just spoke about Wolves. I mean, Wolves have played very badly, but they look like they might stay up.
- [17:55]
Phil Hay
Well, poor teams quite often do stay up in the Premier League. This is the, the thing and, and that's the nature of, of relegation zones is that somebody gets out of it towards the end. I mean, the season when Leeds and Leicester went down, Everton got away with it by the skin of the teeth. And it really was the skin of the teeth. And it does happen. I mean, none of the clubs who come up are skin. It's important to say that they do have money because of the way the Premier League's designed, the way it's structured and the way that the TV cash in particular is paid out. But the disparity in turnover is really obvious. I mean, it's not a particularly fair comparison, this one because Ipswich were in League One at the time, but they last recorded turnover was 23 million, which is chicken feet by Premier League standards. It'll have gone up in the championship and it'll have gone up very sharply in the Premier League. But given that profit and sustainability is designed as a model which is based on multiples of revenue and income and on that basis limits the amount you can spend. It's a problem and it's a hurdle. And as I was saying, with transfer fees, people who've studied this will understand that when you pay them out, you can book them, you can account them in a different way so that they spread out over the course of a player's contract, whereas expensive wages hit you immediately and are there to be paid. And I do think that high wages are what get you the standard of footballer who can keep you in the Premier League. And just to go back to Bielsa and Leeds, Leeds were excellent that season when they came up from the championship 2021, but it really was Bielsa squeezing the pips out of some players who had just about gone as far as they were going to go. And what Leeds didn't have at that point was the depth of resources to be able to enhance that squad to a level where they were no longer just trying to stay up, but they were actually floating in that nice, calm, stable mid table area where you can build with a little bit more precision and a little bit more patience without feeling like the wolf's at the door. So in the end it does tend to come back to, to money. And the clubs who come up will, generally speaking, always have less of it than the teams who are established.
- [20:07]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, Phil makes a good point also, Stu, about psr because, you know, is there a possibility that PSR actually ends up ring fencing the the more established clubs in the Premier League and then obviously stops the new ones from. From coming through and being able to spend properly? I mean, there's a comment on your, on your piece by Adam N and it says that the data points do align with PSR bearing its teeth. The article touches on it, but in my mind, to my mind the link is massive. Could they spend more to bridge the huge gap? Yes, they can, but they cannot. The Premier League currently fills ring fence. What do you make of that?
- [20:44]
Athletic FC
Well, I guess they can spend more if you want to do the forest blueprint.
- [20:49]
Ayo Akimolere
Well, that's the thing. That's the obvious one. Get slapped on the wrist and get.
- [20:53]
Athletic FC
The doctored points right, sign 22 players and roll the dice. And it worked ultimately, but I'm not sure many would want to follow that path. I think there is a worry here. I recall years ago talking, it was after Stoke City got relegated from the Premier League and they were in the championship and dealing with financial fair players it was called then there. And speaking to Peter Coates Stoke chairman and obviously owned by bet365 so they have the resources really to do what they want on the face of it, except they can't do what they want. So they would have, and they did throw a fair bit of money in the championship to try and win promotion. It didn't work. But they see it as why should they have to be restricted to, you know, curtailing everything they want to do because these rules, when actually they do have the financial wherewithal to pretty much do what they want in terms of who they want to sign. And I guess the concern is we get is the longer this goes on, so we've obviously had the same 17 clubs in the Premier League staying in two seasons running. The more that another season of that it actually becomes harder and harder for one of those 17 to get relegated in simple terms because the teams who are coming up then have got an extra kind of gap to bridge. And so I don't know what the solution is there because also obviously these rules are also there because we want to try and avoid a situation. Where would I want my club, for example, Swansea, who sadly are nowhere near to winning promotion in the Premier League, but to come up, throw crazy money at it because we feel that's the only chance we've got of possibly surviving and then risk the long term future of the club? Well, no, I wouldn't want that to happen. And that brings in a whole nother kind of conversation, by the way. But sorry to go off on a tangent, but I look at this field last year and I think in my mind this is the thing that concerns me as a fan of a championship club. Leicester were outstanding last season, Southampton were really good. Leeds were excellent and didn't go up. You know, it felt like for a while it was a really strong championship. So you look at that as a fan of a club who's not in that bracket and think, think what hope in hell have we ever got of going a winning promotion and actually competing. I dread to think what the point total would be if, you know, if Swansea scored somehow and they weren't that far off the playoffs. I don't think at the end last season somehow managed to, to, to, to get in there. So that's the concern that it is becoming a bit of a close shot. But yeah, PSR is obviously a really valid issue. But I don't know what the solution is there, Phil, I don't know if you have any thoughts on that.
- [23:19]
Phil Hay
Well, it's the same this season. I mean, there's a serious chance that Leeds are going to hit 100 points this year, as Leices probably have done last season. And it's developed into a three horse race between Leeds, Sheffield United and Burnley. Three clubs who come down, as we're saying, in the past two years, Burnley and Sheffield United. Last season, Sunderland, if you want to call them the outlier they probably are. Although it's not as if they haven't spent money at Sunderland, but they've been around in the FL for a lot longer. It is quite badly distorted. We had Lisa Nandy on the podcast recently talking about the government's independent regulator. As part of that discussion we were talking about parachute payments and whether or not they might disappear or they might come under threat via the regulator if the regulator ever arrives. Lee Sinani was making the point that that wouldn't happen, that they don't want to scrap them. And there's a really good reason for that. In the Premier League you have little choice but to pay Premier League fees and wages. And I agree with Stu, the risk in that idea, that concept of crazy money. But to a large degree you're sucked into paying it by default because you simply have to, in order to construct a squad that can to any degree compete, you've got to pay what the going rate is. That naturally creates, you know, automatically creates like the levels of expenditure which totally unsustainable in the championship. So in the current climate you'd almost have to say parachute payments have to exist. Otherwise relegation equals total disarray for the, for the clubs who go down. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule. I mean, Luton are having a nightmare this season. It's almost beyond belief the way they've dropped off a cliff. But they might go down from the championship, having dropped out the Premier League last season. But most of the evidence does speak for itself and the only solution I can see is to make the championship and more broadly the EFL richer. But that probably just pushes disparity and equality further down the pyramid. I mean, it is one of the things that the independent regulators, or so they say, wants to do. But how you achieve that in a way that makes a positive difference, I'm honestly not sure.
- [25:32]
Ayo Akimolere
Stu, I just want to take you back to what you said about Ipswich spending a lot of money. You know, 106 million pounds and that's around 134 million dollars in the summer. That's the 13th highest outlay in world football during that winter. Which definitely talks about the power and the might of broadcast money and stuff in the Premier League. But you know, as a general point, spending big doesn't always guarantee you survival. With the caveat obviously Nottingham for us, as we mentioned earlier. But I mean it's a dangerous game if you haven't got a good strategy at your club.
- [26:04]
Athletic FC
Yeah. And I mean, as Phil said there, the thing is what that looks like when you come down. I think clubs are being a bit more astute than they were years ago in terms of generally buying younger players who they feel will have a sell on value. You know, a few years ago you might have got a scenario where people would then pay crazy wages and be locked into that in the championship, which as Phil said is completely unsustainable in there. And actually I think Ipswich Belt spent pretty well. I think if you look at the lap they'll probably get somewhere around, I'd imagine 40 to 50 million back on him in the summer. Murray Hutchinson's a really good talent. So, you know, there's two players there that have really worked well. I find it harder when I look at sort of Southampton to see those kind of examples. Harwood Bellis maybe. But the others, I think their recruitment was poor. And even some of the other players on ewips which have brought in, you know, Jack Clark hasn't had the season they'd hoped. But he'll be a really effective player in the Championship. I wouldn't imagine he's on wages that are outlandish. And the other thing is, come back to what we've been talking about. They'll probably be really well equipped with some of these players to bounce straight back next season, you know. So I think the worry is if you spend huge in the Premier League in that one season and get it badly wrong and then you can sell on some of those players in this, in the following season, then you're in a disastrous, calamitous situation. But I don't think it would be like that for Ipswich for the reasons I just said. But yeah, the rest of it, in terms of picking up on what Phil said, it feels pretty broken English football, to be honest with you. Because I agree, I hate the parachute payments. As a fan of a championship club who's not receiving them, I think it totally distorts the league. But imagine if you took them away. You literally would be looking at the, the teams who go up 100% coming straight back down. It would almost be pointless. So I don't know, I don't know what the, what the solution is there. Interestingly, I saw one comment from a Leeds fan, Phil, on The thread yesterday and he was saying he felt it's worked out for the best that Leeds didn't go up last season. And he feels the squad this season will be better equipped hopefully to compete in the Premier League. And I do think they watched them last night. I think they've got a really good team. I'm not, not disputing for one minute. It'll be hard. You know, I look at the others, Burnley, Sheffield United, and they're streets ahead in the championship. But I think that's a massive leap for them next season if both of them go up.
- [28:23]
Phil Hay
I think the other thing that Leeds have is that they're back now by the 49ers as opposed to Andrea Rajazani as it was in 2020. And I think in theory anyway, there should be a bit more financial clout behind them. I don't think they've got a better squat, a better coach in Faka, and I'm not knocking him. I just think Bielsa absolutely exceptional. But from front to back, they definitely do have a better squad. No question about that. I mean, Sheffield United and Burnley have US investment behind them too. And I think if all three were to go up, I suppose the question is this, how far can the ownership groups push it financially and how creative can they be? Because from time to time you do find clubs who go up and have the means to make it work. But you have to be very cute and clever to bridge the gap and you definitely have to be lucky. You know, the key decisions you make have to work out because as Stu said there, you just don't get any period of grace.
- [29:18]
Ayo Akimolere
Coming up next, we'll look at how recently promoted clubs like Bournemouth have managed to survive and thrive in the Premier League.
- [29:34]
Athletic FC
This is the Athletic FC podcast with IO Accumulara.
- [29:41]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, Phil, you think about full and Bournemouth both survived and, you know, done really well in the Premier League. How have they done it? Because we've spoken about strategy, we've spoke about recruitment, but, you know, how have they done it in a way that someone like Norwich historically who've gone up, come back down, gone up, come back down, the classic yo yo club haven't learned in that way.
- [30:04]
Phil Hay
I think internally, Bournemouth have a very good structure and the same is true of Brighton as well. Clubs who are very good in the transfer market, but consistently good over long periods of time, they don't just seem to have short purple patches where they get it right and everybody pass them on the back. It's a continuous process where they seem to know exactly who's going to fit. And even the deals that don't work out so well aren't complete failures or costly in a way that really does them in. It's equally true of the, the, the way in which they recruit head coaches. Brighton again have seem to have succession plans up the sleeve all the time. Bournemouth took a, a bit of a gamble on Iriola although, you know, I think his, his talent was pretty obvious from afar. But there was a question about whether or not he was going to slot into the Premier League comfortably. On, you know, the other end of the spectrum, he's been, he's been fantastic and I think he's positioned himself now where he's one of the most sought after coaches in, in Europe. We did a podcast on him recently and, and we were sort of saying, you know, he, he is, he is one of these standout managers at the moment and somebody that bigger clubs will be after. And perhaps as I referenced there, there has been an element of luck in the way that it's all worked and it's held together. But I don't think you can be lucky for this long and I don't think in Bomber's case in particular, I don't think you can be this, make this much progress and be this good through chance. Fulham have been a bit more up and down. I think it has to be said they have yo yoed a little bit, but again they fallen on a formula that they like. They've stuck with it. And sometimes that's half the battle as well, is persisting with something even at the points where you feel like it might not quite be working.
- [31:43]
Athletic FC
When I was writing the piece, I was thinking, okay, Free stayed up that season. How did that happen? And then Forest is a weird case study as we've discussed. And then you look at the others and Bournemouth is an odd one, right? They were bottom of the league in March that season. That was a chaotic season. That was a season they lost 9 nil at Liverpool Pool and Scott Parker left really early on. Gary O'Neill took over. It's weird to sort of look at it and think there was a really good template there. But I completely agree with Phil when I look at their recruitment. Certainly since then it's been really, really good. Fulham for me, Mitrovic was like a cheat code in the championship that season. They came up and he was prolific in the Premier League the following season. Which comes back to my point earlier on, trying to find that, that goal scorer which obviously Southampton and Leicester haven't had and then I looked at their recruitment as well. That summer they'd signed Bern Leonard, Andreas Pereira, Joao Pollino. It was brilliant. Gone on to Bayern Munich now and then. He had some good existing players. Kearney, Anthony Robinson and Mitrovic, obviously I've mentioned.
- [32:42]
Ayo Akimolere
So also Willian as well. Let's not forget how well he did.
- [32:46]
Athletic FC
Exactly. So it's, it's difficult. Do I look at Fulham and think, yeah, Sheffield United or Burnley could do that next season? No, I don't, to be honest with you. And I know it sounds a little bit pessimistic that, but I just think they were not a unique case, but they were in a really good position. Good coach Marcus Silva as well, to sort of go on and thrive. So I think we have to see each season almost in isolation. They're all different. But for me, as I say, it's been alarming to see Southampton and in particular Leicester as bad as they've been. Given how dominant Leicester were in the championship last season.
- [33:21]
Phil Hay
The baby steps are so important. I think Forest underlined that they were I think 16th and 17th in the first two seasons after they got promoted. They dug in, they. They held out and they, they got themselves over the hump. And it's given them, given them time to, to construct something that's far less fraught than it was in the, in the beginning. And I don't see them as Champions League regulars yet. I'm still not convinced that they'll finish top four, although it may well be five places for the Champions League in the, the Premier League this season. So the, the serious chance of, of getting in there. But what they do have is a good enough grounding now to, to stay out of trouble longer term. And as chaotic as they and their owner Evangelist Marinakis, you know, quite often seem to be, they're definitely a lesson for everybody in how important it is to get those first few steps right.
- [34:11]
Athletic FC
I guess if you look at it now. Right, so Leeds, Sheffield, Burnley coming up. You off. I think you'd probably look and think, okay, who's vulnerable in that Premier League group? Who could come out of it? And just what you said about Forester, they would have been seen as that. One of those right field before finished 16th, 17th, and I agree with you, they won't be seen as that next season. And I can't really see a West Ham or a Palace, even Everton, I'd expect. It's hard. So you probably look at logically Wolves where they are now. You know, they've been in a, in a mess For a little while, to be honest. But that's the danger that you and I know that something can happen. A team can make a series of bad decisions, they can have a really bad window, the managers don't work out. But it feels like a Premier League club has to really screw up now to get relegated. In my mind.
- [34:56]
Ayo Akimolere
Yeah, that. That's the thing though, Stu. Is that based on that notion, is there a lack of jeopardy? Fortunately, isn't the dream that we have. These teams come up and if there's a fighting chance in some way, shape or form that they might stay up and then reinvest again the next season and reinvest the season after that, are you basically just saying that if you're coming up, good luck staying in the Premier League? The. The chances of you going down are. Are pretty likely.
- [35:23]
Athletic FC
Yeah. I do think Leeds, for the reasons Phil said, will give it a real good go next season. That there will be, you know, clubs like Wolves probably won't want to see Leeds back in the Premier League, to be honest with you. But yeah, that is the reality of where we're at, I think. And then we've got to be careful. I know some people have said, you know, to me, this is only going to be the second season. What about the previous 10? I get that to a point. But I think football's changed over that time too. You know, we mentioned those.
- [35:52]
Phil Hay
This feels like a creep, doesn't it?
- [35:54]
Athletic FC
Yeah, it does feel. I mean, you mentioned those mid table teams. Those mid table teams are blooming good now. You know, Brighton are a really good side. Brentford are a really good side. You know, it's not, you might have felt years ago, it almost been a shock to sort of get turned over on your own ground. 4 Nil by 1 of those teams. I don't mean it specifically that club, but a team that's sort of, I don't know, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th in the. It's not a surprise anymore. That's the gulf that's opened up. And I think it's really hard to see what the solution is to that. But it isn't a formality, you know, Leeds. I do think Leeds could come up and give it a real good go last season, next season. And I hope that happens. Sorry, I'm saying they're promoted already. Leeds. The fans won't thank me for that.
- [36:35]
Ayo Akimolere
No, but that's the thing, Phil, though. I mean, there's a likelihood Leeds will come back. A high likelihood Leeds will come back. Do you think they've learned from what you're seeing of how they're performing in the championship. We talk about better players for sure. Do you think the club club have learned from their last outing in the Premier League? If they're going to come back up and hopefully be more sustainable?
- [36:53]
Phil Hay
Well, they 100% should have done and I think, yeah, they will have done. The 49ers were on board during that period and there were some pretty serious mistakes made during those three years, which I think they will have digested and will look back on as and when they. They go up. They do have good players, at least, there's no doubt about that. And they're by far and away the best squad in the championship, but they still have what is kind of endemic, every single championship club, which is a load of footballers who fall in that gray area between, you know, comfortably or easily good enough for the championship, but not necessarily good enough for the Premier League. A lot, A lot of them will have to prove that one way or the other. If you want to have your glass half full, you would hope deep down that they might be. And a lot of what has been shown this season suggests that they. That they could be, but they'll have to. They will have to spend and they will have to recruit and they'll have to change that squad to a certain extent. I think if this does become a consistent trend of teams coming up going back down and it becomes too regular, then the Premier League and the EFL are going to have to face up to it, because without a serious threat of relegation to multiple clubs, you're pretty much talking about a franchise system, which no doubt plenty of club owners would absolutely love, but supporters more than anybody else, absolutely wouldn't.
- [38:12]
Ayo Akimolere
Phil, Stu, let's end it there. Thank you so much for your time and also thank you guys for listening as well. Well, we'll be back tomorrow.
- [38:20]
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