Is the new Champions League format better?

Summary

Summary of "Is the New Champions League Format Better?"

Podcast Information

• Title: The Athletic FC Podcast
• Host: Ayo Akinwolere
• Guests: James Horncastle, Phil Hay, Rory Smith, Sam Lee, Jacob Tanswell
• Release Date: January 30, 2025

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Introduction

In the January 30, 2025 episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, host Ayo Akinwolere delves into the intricacies of the newly implemented Champions League format. Joined by football analysts James Horncastle, Phil Hay, Rory Smith, Sam Lee, and Jacob Tanswell, the discussion navigates through recent match outcomes, the impact of the new format on top-tier and emerging clubs, and transfer speculations surrounding Aston Villa's key players.

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Overview of Last Night’s Action

The episode opens with a recap of Manchester City's critical 3-1 victory over Club Bruges, which secured their passage to a playoff spot in the Champions League. Sam Lee, the show's Manchester City correspondent, provides on-the-ground insights from the Etihad Stadium.

Sam Lee ([06:45]):

“As much as City have got their problems, and as much as they can struggle and look vulnerable in terms of the atmosphere in the stadium, it didn't really have too much of a chance to be too downhearted, because City can flip that switch pretty quickly.”

Despite initial setbacks, including a missed header by John Stones ([06:45]), City's strategic halftime substitutions, notably Savinho, shifted the game's momentum in their favor. This victory, while securing their advancement, leaves room for concern regarding their defensive solidity and consistency.

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New Champions League Format: Analysis and Opinions

The newly revamped Champions League format has introduced a more extensive group stage, expanding opportunities and challenges for clubs across Europe. The panel discusses whether this change has enhanced the competition's quality and unpredictability.

Rory Smith ([05:11]):

“We did something similar in the Athletic FC newsletter this morning, which was every game, a report on every game in five words. And I have to say, I leaned on the TNT goal show really heavily.”

James Horncastle highlights the demanding nature of covering 18 simultaneous matches, comparing it to “a marathon, but at 100 meter sprint pace” ([04:50]). This format has intensified the competition, making it both an exhilarating and exhausting endeavor for analysts and fans alike.

Rory Smith ([14:31]):

“It is very much painted as, oh, there's a hell of a lot more jeopardy involved here. And, and I suppose there is to a certain extent, but it's still set up in a way that kind of favors the establishment, isn't it?”

The consensus among the panel is that while the new format promises increased excitement and more high-stakes matches, it still predominantly benefits established powerhouses due to financial clout and deeper squads.

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Manchester City’s Performance

Manchester City's journey this season has been a blend of high achievements and underlying inconsistencies. Their recent Champions League performance showcases both their offensive prowess and defensive vulnerabilities.

Rory Smith ([07:54]):

“I think more than anything, structurally, they do seem to be failing. And they might get away with that again against Bayern because this isn't a prime Bayern Munich team.”

Phil Hay adds that while City remains a formidable force, their defensive lapses could spell trouble against Europe's elite, such as Real Madrid.

Phil Hay ([07:54]):

“They are so porous. I was going to look at the contrast in the league tables. They've gone from 34 in the Premier League last season to 30 by this stage already this season.”

This underscores the importance of structural and tactical refinements for City to remain contenders in both domestic and European competitions.

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Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and PSG’s Prospects

The panel evaluates the prospects of traditional giants Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and PSG within the new format. Real Madrid appears to be regaining their competitive edge, while Bayern Munich’s current form is questioned.

James Horncastle ([09:36]):

“Real Madrid would murder them [City]. I mean, I just think there's no doubt about that at all.”

PSG, under new strategic directions, shows signs of maturation with players like Kylian Mbappé settling into consistent performance roles.

James Horncastle ([11:47]):

“Dembele, at 27, looks like he is maturing and is finding the kind of consistency that he was unable to show at Barcelona.”

The evolution of these clubs underlines the dynamic nature of European football, where even the most storied institutions must adapt to new challenges.

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Aston Villa’s Transfer Speculations: Watkins and Duran

A significant portion of the episode centers on Aston Villa's transfer window dramas, particularly concerning key players Ollie Watkins and John Duran. The speculation around Watkins potentially moving to Arsenal and Duran's imminent transfer to the Saudi league has stirred considerable discussion.

Jacob Tanswell ([33:01]):

“Duran is set to complete his move to Al Nasser. There was always a feeling... that he's raw still, he's unrefined.”

The impending departure of Duran, despite his memorable goals, raises concerns about Villa’s offensive strategy and squad depth. Watkins' potential transfer is seen as a pivotal moment for both Villa and his prospective suitors.

James Horncastle ([43:10]):

“He is Mile ahead in that respect [striking ability].”

Villian manager Mikel Emery faces the challenge of balancing player sales with the need to strengthen the squad, highlighting the financial and tactical complexities clubs face in the modern transfer market.

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Implications of the New Format on Big and Smaller Clubs

The new Champions League structure is scrutinized for its impact on both established giants and emerging teams. While it ostensibly offers more opportunities, the panel debates whether it genuinely democratizes success or merely stretches the dominance of wealthy clubs.

Rory Smith ([19:01]):

“It's an annual spectacle as time goes on. Rory Smith was writing about this on Wednesday morning, saying it is almost like the sort of event that football will stop for because it is so weird and wonderful.”

Despite increased fixtures potentially enriching the competition, financial disparities remain a significant barrier to parity, with top clubs leveraging their resources to maintain supremacy.

James Horncastle ([22:20]):

“It makes it harder for big clubs to fail because ultimately the 16 teams that went through last night are the 16 richest clubs...”

This insight emphasizes that while the format aims to enhance competitiveness, economic realities continue to influence outcomes.

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Conclusion

The panel concludes that the new Champions League format introduces fresh excitement and logistical challenges but does not fundamentally alter the established power dynamics within European football. The discussions highlight that while emerging stories and underdog narratives add flavor, the financial and structural advantages of top-tier clubs like Manchester City, Real Madrid, and PSG largely dictate the competition's trajectory.

Rory Smith ([26:43]):

“Nobody comes for the format. Nobody is here for the format. It's the individual games that and I suppose the tournament as a whole, once you see how it's flowed from, you know, particularly the last 16 onwards, it's what happens over 90 minutes that sticks with you.”

Ultimately, the episode underscores that the essence of the Champions League remains rooted in the quality of football and the unpredictability of individual match outcomes, rather than in the structural changes of the competition itself.

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Notable Quotes:

• Sam Lee ([06:45]): “As much as City have got their problems... City can flip that switch pretty quickly.”

• Rory Smith ([05:11]): “It's like the sequel to Rain man that nobody ever made...”

• James Horncastle ([09:36]): “Real Madrid would murder them.”

• Jacob Tanswell ([33:01]): “Duran is set to complete his move to Al Nasser.”

• Rory Smith ([19:46]): “It's an annual spectacle as time goes on...”

---

This comprehensive discussion on The Athletic FC Podcast provides listeners with an in-depth analysis of the new Champions League format, its ramifications for various clubs, and the ongoing transfer saga at Aston Villa, all while maintaining a keen focus on the evolving landscape of European football.

Transcript

[Ayo Akimwalere]

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[Jacob Tanswell]

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[Phil Hay]

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[James Horncastle]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network.

[Sam Lee]

Welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Ayo Akimwalere. On an evening of mayhem across Europe, Manchester City got the job done and avoided Champions League elimination.

[Ayo Akimwalere]

Savino's in 3:1 and that should be.

[Rory Smith]

Enough to take Manchester City through to.

[James Horncastle]

A playoff place in the Champions League.

[Sam Lee]

Is the prospect though of Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in the playoff something they'll relish? And with Duran set to leave for Saudi and Arsenal interested in Watkins, could Aston Villa's front line look a little different in the knockout stages? Right here for this one we've got the Athletics, James Horncastle and lead writer for the Athletic FC newsletter, Phil Hay as well. James, I'm jumping in straight to you on this one because UK viewers will have seen you on TNT Sports Sports in the studio alongside Ali McCoy, Scottish football legend, watching the goals fly in. I had it on my phone. I watched tnt. I was going from game to game. I mean it was absolute chaos. How on earth did you keep across it?

[James Horncastle]

You know what I mean? The goal show on it on a normal night. So, you know, usually it's between Tuesday and Wednesday. You have half as many games and sometimes, you know, fewer because there were early games. You know, there's usually a couple of sort of 6:30 kickoffs or whatever like that. To have 18 games simultaneously was, dare I say, a lot. It was like doing a marathon, but at 100 meter sprint pace and a goal was going in about, I think every 100 seconds in terms of having a dialogue that brings challenges. But it was very exhilarating and fun to be a part of. So yeah, doing it again tonight for the Europa League.

[Sam Lee]

I've done those golf shows, they are insane and your head is sort of buzzing at the at the end of it. Try getting some sleep after it, trust me. Phil, what about you? I don't know if you've read Tim Spears basically watch all 18 games in five minute sections. The pieces on the Athletic right now. I messaged him this morning saying are you okay? Circus? He must be in a corner just crying.

[Rory Smith]

It's so good. We did something similar in the Athletic FC newsletter this morning, which was every game, a report on every game in five words. And I have to say, I leaned on the TNT goal show really heavily. It really was excellent, actually. And I think it's probably quite easy to underestimate how difficult it is to be across that many goals, so many games and also so many permutations for the table moving. I was sort of saying it was like the sequel to Rain man that nobody ever made, but I basically had five screens on the go on my laptop at the goal show. I had PSG for as long as it took to work out that PSG were going to be fine. I had City, obviously. I had Villa Celtic, which was, you know, from first bell to the last bell and probably the best game of the night, but also Leo Firenod, because that felt like one of the most live fixtures in that massive list. But it was a really unique occasion and it makes me wonder whether this is actually going to become a bit of a. An annual spectacle as time goes on. Rory Smith was writing about this on Wednesday morning, saying it is almost like the sort of event that football will stop for because it is so weird and wonderful. I mean, I was trying to think of any other competition in football or actually any other competition anywhere where you have 18 matches going on at exactly the same time, and I don't think such a thing exists.

[Sam Lee]

All right, let's get into last night's action then. Manchester City were one of the big clubs facing possible elimination and went behind in their 31 win over Club Club Bruges. Well, Sam Lee, the Athletics Manchester City correspondent, was at the Etihad. Here's what he had to say.

[Omar Mahmoud]

As much as City have got their problems, and as much as they can struggle and look vulnerable in terms of the atmosphere in the stadium, it didn't really have too much of a chance to be too downhearted, because City can flip that switch pretty quickly. And that's exactly what they did. John Stones missed a big header not long into the second half, and Bruges did have some chances on the break, but by bringing on Savinho at half time, they really changed the dynamic, really. And once City got the first goal back, look, even with their problems and even though Bruges kept trying to play, City is still obviously a team to be feared and the team that can do damage. That makes obviously the prospect of a playoff against Real Madrid or Bayern Munich hilariously entertaining. But for now, given City could have gone out, it looked like they were going to go out. And can you imagine the headlines, if they had gone out, they can celebrate a job well done, but they are going to have to improve in the fortnight before that.

[Sam Lee]

That first leg, I mean, Phil, City could still go out. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid in the next round. I know Sam's talking about them being the team to be feared, but City are still relatively inconsistent and unconvinced at this moment in time.

[Rory Smith]

Relatively. I'm really not sure that a team to be feared at all or not like the were. I think they noticed at the stage where you would pick City out of the hat and say, we really want to play them. But of all the seasons that City have been in the Champions League, this is probably the one where, if you're meeting them in the playoffs or in the last 16, you'd be more happy than the most. Gardiola's best 11 in peak form still speaks for itself. And they do have signings who can be added for the knockouts. Omar Mahmou, I think in particular will be a bonus in that sense. But until Pep manages to retrain City in the art of defending or does something effective with his structure, they're not really scared in anybody. And Club Bruges had some big chances in the second half last night. And you know, for sure City had to gamble because a draw wasn't going to be enough for them to avoid elimination. But they're so porous. I was going to look at the contrast in the league tables. They've gone from 34 in the Premier League last season to 30 by this stage already this season. And I think more than anything, structurally, they do seem to be failing. And they might get away with that again against Bayern because this isn't a prime Bayern Munich team. But if they're as open as they were last night, Real Madrid will murder them. I mean, I just think there's no doubt about that at all. And beyond that, it's. It's Leverkusen or Athletico Madrid in the the last 16 who are, you know, pound for pound dangers, and two very, very good middleweights, if not heavyweights. But as for Real Madrid, I think they look like they're cooking finally.

[Sam Lee]

Yeah, James, that's interesting. I want to talk to you about psg, but quickly on on City. I mean, Real Madrid, we know of the pedig Champions League, they enjoy this Champions League, it's what they're built to win. It's just not going to be an easy ride for City.

[James Horncastle]

No, not at all. Because, yeah, it seems like Kylian Mbappe has finally settled and is scoring at the rate that people expected him to when he moved from psg. And you look at how handy Rodrigo is. You know, Rodrigo is kind of the. The lesser spotted of their. Their attacking players. And yet in the Champions League delivers moments that if Vinicius was not there, if Mbappe was not there, if Bellingham was not there, he'd be the star at other clubs, I think undoubtedly they'll be getting players back as well, the likes of, you know, David Alaba. So, you know, when February, March, April begins, that's when you start to see the real Madrid. No pun intended, but yeah, with City, you know, even though they came through last night, you know, in the past, when City have gone out usually in a sort of, let's say, you know, around the 16 qualifiers against a Lyon or a Monaco, you know, the. The accusation levied against Guardiola is he's either overthought something or there's been a. A fleeting glitch that has. Has undermined City. You know, for me, that one of the most remarkable moments of this league phase was a week ago in Paris where, you know, in the second half, you know, after the second goal, City scored, they. They completely evaporated. And, you know, PSG had what, 26 shots in that game. I've never seen a Guardiola team that overwhelmed. And Real Madrid would. Would pose similar problems with their front three, because I think PSG's front three at the moment, while it doesn't have a star like it did in the past, be it Mbappe last season or before that, Messi and Neymar with him, a young team seems to have grown up even in just the last fortnights. You know, Barcola had never scored a Champions League goal, I don't think before, but Maybe only scored 1 in 16 going into that man, City game decisive. Dembele comes off the bench. Dembele, at 27, he's still only 27, looks like he is maturing and is finding the kind of consistency that he was unable to show at Barcelona.

[Rory Smith]

Funnily enough, James, when I was watching you looking resplendent on the goals show and Dembele's goals were flying in, that was the thing that came to mind was, why doesn't he do this consistently?

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, and I think him and Barcola have mirrored each other exactly. I think it's 13 goals, seven assists for each of them in all competitions so far this season. And Dembele was talking afterwards about how I think he is benefiting from there not being a reference Point in attack. There's not Mbappe there where everything has to go through Mbappe and there's not a Messi or a Neymar there anymore. It's more fluid and you know, Dembele feels like, oh, actually, you know, I have to step up and be the person who, who delivers in these games. And yeah, perhaps it is leading to a better collective PSG than some of the star studded ones that we've seen. They'll also have Kviche, Karavatskalia. Yeah, mention that James in the knockout stages.

[Rory Smith]

He's a bigger wild card for them, I think, than anything City have seen so far.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, yeah. And one nice segue back to City there, Phil. You've set me up nicely.

[Rory Smith]

You're welcome.

[James Horncastle]

I think one issue with this format for me is that it allows underperforming big teams still to qualify. Okay. Because City have ultimately got through because they've beaten Sloven Bratislava, Sparta Prague and, and Club Bruges. Even AC Milan who were in the top eight going into last night and then fell. Fell out of it because they lost to Dino Zagreb. Milan went into last night on a four game winning streak in this competition which, yes, it started away at the burnabout against Real Madrid, but you know, they then played, yeah, the likes of, of Red Star Sloven Bratislava, Club Bruges, Girona and ended on Dina Mozagreb. I think this format makes it even harder for big clubs to fail because ultimately the 16 teams that went through last night as the 16 richest clubs, if you look at the teams that were eliminated, none of the teams that are eliminated are a surprise in my opinion. Apart from maybe seeing two German teams. Yeah, you see Stuttgart go out.

[Rory Smith]

Leipzig have been quite a surprise actually. RB Leipzig, I didn't expect them to be despite his woeful. But when you say, James, that the safety net is as big as UEFA want it to be, which is massive for the clubs that they really want to be in the, the knockout stages. It, it is very much painted as, oh, there's a hell of a lot more jeopardy involved here. And, and I suppose there is to, to certain extent, but it's still set up in a way that kind of favors the establishment, isn't it?

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, I think that's exactly it. I think, yes, not a lot of things were decided going into last night beyond sort of Liverpool who'd won every game. The jeopardy I suppose was is this team going to be in the top eight or the playoff? And you know, are City going to get into the playoff? That was pretty much it really, it was more about where you finish rather than are you going to be out. And so there's, there's almost like an illusion of jeopardy there, which I think was quite compelling. I went into last night really excited and then I came away from it actually thinking, is this just the same but different, you know?

[Jacob Tanswell]

You're listening to the Athletic FC podcast with IO Akinwaleere.

[Ayo Akimwalere]

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[Sam Lee]

Yeah just James, just following on from what you just said. I'm just thinking about what missing out in that top eight will feel like for certain clubs like Bayern Munich, AC Milan, PSG Juventus and we've spoken about Manchester City. Are there greater implications for this time around? Because, I mean, UEFA could basically say, yeah, look, this is what we wanted. You know, the big teams, yes, they've made it to the playoff, but not necessarily. There's no road for some of these guys to the final.

[James Horncastle]

Missing out on the top eight, is it like missing out on, on first place last year in the group stages? You know, I became quite cynical about the merits of sort of finishing top in the group stage in the old format, because usually it'd be the kind of two richest clubs in the group would, would progress, with few exceptions. And so at the end of the day, in the kind of round of 16 stage of, of, of the Champions League, you would get, you know, sort of these big marquee games that, you know, people would go into saying, oh, that's like a final, but we're playing it early, like. Or you wouldn't, you wouldn't necessarily get the reward that you'd expect from finishing first. I remember last year, Real Sociedad won their group and they played PSG in the round of 16. So you look, for example, you know, Liverpool and Barcelona, what's their reward for finishing first and second? Oh, they might play psg.

[Rory Smith]

So money, you know, the money's not bad.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, well, okay, so, yeah, Phil, you know, finishing in the top eight, you know, Liverpool sort of winning seven out of eight games, you know, you get obviously prize money for winning games, not only for where you finish and then, you know, qualifying and that sort of thing. So yeah, the money, the money is not bad. That's the offering, I suppose, from UEFA, isn't it, for this new format. But it's one of those weird quirks, I suppose, that in some respects. Who would you rather be? Liverpool or Barca? Who might face PSG upon finishing first and second in a, in a league phase of eight games? Or would you rather be Villa or Lille and you get one of Sporting Bruges, Atalanta or Dortmund? I don't know. It's a knockout competition at the end of the day.

[Rory Smith]

Yeah, it is, it is in a different form. I mean, I can't deny that I did really enjoy popcorn Wednesday, as it should always be known from now on. And I don't know, it felt far, and maybe it's just because it's the first time around, but it felt far less flat than the last round of matches historically have. You know, when, when the group stage was there, as James says, it might just be an illusion, but I felt like a little bit of a convert. Towards it. And I suppose we'll probably need a few seasons of this to, to know how we, we feel for sure, to go back to the safety net. I do think it is too big and, you know, on the basis that it's so much harder to go out of this competition than it is to. To stay in it. And I think as pleased as I suspect UEFA will be with themselves on the basis of how it's gone, they have been fortunate that the rebrand this year has coincided with City, Real and PSG all being pretty out of sorts, especially before the turn of the year. As I say, Real do seem to be going through the gears now and are going to be a really big threat. But I really don't think the latter stages of this competition will in any way suggest that the balance of power has shifted or not significantly.

[Phil Hay]

Yeah.

[Sam Lee]

What about the extra games, though? You look at City that are struggling for form right now. The teams that make it in that top eight don't have to play till March now. There's a couple more games to end there for the other guys in the playoffs. Phil.

[Rory Smith]

Yeah, and I mean, it helps to play fewer than you have to because the calendar is so congested. But one of the reasons the calendar is so congested is because UEFA have done this with the Champions League. And, you know, the knock on effect, I know we're going to talk about Villa later on, among others, is that you now have games taking place right at the sharp end of the January window, which was clearly an issue last night. Didn't affect the result then, but clearly an issue last night for Villa with John Duran and Ollie Watkins, that was, you know, this was all kind of dealt with before, or at least the group stages were dealt with before you got into the transfer window. So, yeah, I mean, it pays to go as far as you can, doesn't it? And I was reading the piece we did yesterday about the finances. In it, I think Liverpool stand pulling about 135 million pounds. If they win it to this point, they've already earned about 40 million quid, which is, you know, significant. It's not mega, but it's useful to have, without a doubt. So there was a lot of jostling position, position I when it came to getting into the top eight. But there didn't seem to be a right lot of jostling for position when it came to who you were going to play next. And I think the reason for that is because if you look at any of the diagrams we've done about who might Play who and how it all might match up. It's wildly, wildly convoluted, so it's very difficult to keep across.

[James Horncastle]

Do you think that's why this. The interest has been high, Phil? And whether this interest is actually sustainable or fleeting, because we're all figuring this out, right? We're interested because it's. It's a format we haven't seen before. And so you are kind of trying to figure out in your own head. And, you know, I don't know whether that produces this kind of layer of interest which is just kind of artificial, really. And, like, once. Once it's pulled away and we do kind of get it, which we kind of look at it, think, isn't this more complicated than it needs to be? Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Rory Smith]

I mean, it hasn't. It hasn't really resolved and hasn't resolved enough in the sense that we are saying now, City could play Real or psg, and then if they happen to come through, whichever of those games it actually ends up being, then they'll play Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid. There's no kind of clear linear path is that of what's happening. You can vaguely see how it's coming together, and obviously the draw on Friday morning will help with that as well. But it's kind of in keeping with all of these tournaments that it's. It's nowhere near as straightforward as it could be if you just gave it to us to sort out.

[Jacob Tanswell]

Yeah.

[Sam Lee]

James, I'm also thinking, you know, it's like any new format, right? It lands, you figure it out, and it then becomes part of the furniture, the big conversation. And it's still football we're talking about here is were you entertained? Do you feel entertained by what you've been watching, those permutations potentially, or does it feel like, as you said, it's just still ring fencing the old guard?

[James Horncastle]

In many respects, I was entertained in surprise. I'm entertained by football still.

[Sam Lee]

It's your job. So.

[James Horncastle]

No, I think it's actually. It's. It's actually hard to kind of step out of that and like. And think, like, was I entertained by. By the football, as I usually am, in that you. You get to see clubs playing on these great stages in great atmospheres. You get to see these great goals that, you know, you're just like, wow, this is. This is the Champions League. You know, there's something that sets it apart in terms of quality, you know, variation, not necessarily in terms of results, but in terms of teams, players, the changeability and churn of the European football cycle where there are new coaches, new players every year. And it's just, you know, naturally when you've got so many teams, yeah, you know what, 16 more teams than are in your league. There's more interest I think because of that. And there are moments throughout last night where you look at some goals where you're like wow, that's incredible. The Ben Sabayini goal for Dortmund. Just great individual skill. But in preparation for doing TNT show last night, I went through kind of all the results so far, match day per match day per match day and kind of what stood out and maybe it's because I'm getting older, but there were games that ordinarily would be like big results where you're like oh wow, that's incredible. Which I'd kind of forgotten about very quickly. Just like. And I think that's the fact that there just being too much football anyway. But part of my entertainment appreciation of this competition should be like, oh yeah, remember when Juventus were away at Leipzig and Gleison Bremer did his ACL and there was a sending off Juventus and they were 21 down and they came back and won 3 2. I should have had a better recall of that, you know, because that, that's a massive result and a really kind of epic performance. But it feels long ago. And how much did it really matter, you know, when you've got eight games per club. I was looking back at, we had that great piece from Jack Lang on. On Breast that published on, on Wednesday and it made me go back and just look. But the kind of timeline of their Champions League season and yeah, their first two games were against Austrian opponents kind of Sturm Gratz and Salzburg and they won both of those games, which was still a surprise because Brest had never been in the Champions League and all that sort of thing. But at the same time it provided a great story in that, you know, football does provide these great stories regardless of format. So yeah, I don't know whether I was more entertained by the format than I was last year. I think the point that I'm making is that I'm not. I'm just entertained by watching high quality European football anyway.

[Rory Smith]

Yeah, but that's precisely the point, isn't it? Nobody comes for the format. Nobody is here for the format. It's the individual games that and I suppose the tournament as a whole, once you see how it's flowed from, you know, particularly the last 16 onwards, it's what happens over 90 minutes that sticks with you. Like you talking about Performances from big, performances from UV away from home. And I think if, if we all accept that the, the most powerful clubs in Europe are the most powerful clubs in Europe and no matter how you set up the Champions League, they are always going to gravitate towards the, the latter stages of it and, you know, most likely one of them is most likely going to win it then. There wasn't really much wrong with the format as it was last season. It kind of worked for a set up in Europe where some clubs have it and some clubs don't. But this does make it bigger, it makes it more lucrative. There are still some interesting stories in there. I think Villa and Leo look to me like kind of minor dark horses. I don't think on their day they're particularly teams that you would, you know, you would just sort of rashly say, I'd be good to play them. I think quite the opposite. And I think another team to look out for is definitely Inter. There's not much that they seem to be lacking, but I mean, I would absolutely defer to James on them.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, I think the only thing lacking is media respect, I suppose, which, you know, usually when, you know, someone covers a league that isn't a Premier League, they get defensive about it and they're always kind of like sort of trying to fight back against this kind of narrative about how the Premier League is the best league in the world and that sort of thing. I think that debate's gone, just leave it. But it, it surprises me that Inter aren't talked about more, particularly after, you know, what has been a sustained period of doing well in Europe now. You know, they reached the Europa League final, they reached the Champions League final. And yeah, this year I think they, they only conceded one goal in the group stages. They only lost once and that was late to Leverkusen. Yeah, a Leverkusen side that in some respects, you know, got more plaudits maybe because, you know, in the kind of anglophone media, which is the media that kind of leads the narrative. There's more familiarity with Xabi Alonso than there is with Simeone Inzaghi, purely because Xabi Alonso played in the Premier League and there was this projected wish for him to become the Liverpool manager. You know, I think Simone Inzaghi keeps doing really good work. But I mean, just to again touch upon something that Phil said, I think Lille are the real story here and it feels like they've snuck up on this really, because the story was supposed to be breast and instead Lille were the French team that finished higher than the other Ligue 1 representatives. You look at who they beat, you know, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid. They drew against Juventus. They lost to Liverpool, as you know, everyone apart from PSV did last night. And I think they were down to 10 men for a bit of that Liverpool game. They lost their manager in the summer. Paolo Fonseca went to AC Milan, Lenny Yoro went to Manchester United. They got a couple of guys who are in the final year of their contracts, sort of Jonathan David and Angel Gomez. And so to finish top eight. To me, that's more impressive than Villa. And I don't want to diminish Villa's story in any way, but they're a Premier League club and by the geographical accident that is sort of being in the Premier League, where The team that's 20th in the Premier League makes more money from the TV revenue than the team that's first in Germany, Spain, Italy. When you look at the kind of money that Villa have plowed in over the last few years, and then they've had to either claw back from psr, swap deals and whatever, it shouldn't really be too big a surprise that a Premier League team that isn't, you know, man City, Liverpool or Arsenal makes top eight. As I say, don't want to diminish Villa too much, but I just think by virtue of being in the Premier League, the economics make it more likely that you're going to do well in these competitions than not well.

[Sam Lee]

You're going to hit our next bit, James, because we're going to be reflecting on Aston Villa's crazy night. Villa park both on and off the pitch.

[Jacob Tanswell]

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[Jacob Tanswell]

This is the Athletic FC podcast with IO akamalera.

[Sam Lee]

Well, one of the stories of the night unfolded at Villa park, not just because of the 42 win over Celtic. Great game that. But the transfer speculation around the futures of both Ollie Watkins and John Duran. Now joining us to unpack it all is our Villa correspondent, Jacob Tanswell. Jacob, wow. Going into this match, I, I open my phone and Ollie Watkins is linked potentially with Arsenal. John Duran linked with an exit out of the club potentially to Saudi Arabia. I mean what kind of distraction is this going to Villa's final league face game?

[Jacob Tanswell]

I don't know how Joanna Watkins must have felt going out to warm up yesterday because I was certainly distracted. I got to the game about three and a half hours before kickoff and you know, I actually forgot the game was about to to actually take place because everyone in the press now it all exhausted before the game had even kicked off because of you had this Watkins out of nowhere really this, the speculation that Arsenal had made an offer. It turns out we found out that it was actually two days before and Villa were very angry that he had been leaked only two or three hours before their pivotal game of the season. So when the two players did come out, obviously Watkins was going to be the starter and Duran was. It took a huge place on the bench. I think Villa were quite nervous that it would actually have a big repercussions and it would unsettle both players and therefore the performance. But they obviously started very well in the game and you know, the first five minutes were an absolute whirlwind.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah.

[Sam Lee]

So what is the latest on that? Is Duran leaving? Is Ollie Watkins leaving for that matter?

[Jacob Tanswell]

Yeah, Duran is set to complete his move to Al Nasser. There was always a feeling, I know Villa were briefing journalists that he was never going to leave this month and it would actually the can be kicked down the road into the summer. But there's always a feeling that if a team, most likely Saudi Arabia would be the likely destination, would basically stump up the cash of, you know, 80 million euros that they would allow him to go because there was always that feeling of Durant for always sheer brilliance that he would keep trying to push to leave every single window. He did it last January in the summer and, and this window and this is a feeling that he's raw still, he's unrefined. He could be a great right Now, Villa need something that's basically got all round materials. And although Watkins future is not completely ruled out in terms of a move away, Emery was reluctant to say that it would take big, big money to. To get him out of Villa this month.

[Sam Lee]

Yeah, James, you had an eye on Duran and during the second half especially, I mean, if you look on the touchlines, there was fair few antics ahead of his departure. Now, everyone, it's almost iconic now, that goal against Bayern Munich was insane. Right? Beautiful. Announce himself into. I was going to say, how much of a miss will he be? But I'm sure, you know, Emery is probably just going. Do you know what? If you want to go, just. Just go, mate, you know.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah. Although I think it's a headache that managers actually would like to have strikers of that quality. To be able to retain both and maybe make them both coexist would be ideal. But yeah, I mean, you talk about those antics, the kind of smiling, not smiling of Duran, whether that's professional or not. I mean, he certainly knows where the camera is. He knows, yeah. As Jacob knows. Yeah, he knows how to do something that is. Is provocative. You know, even doing, you know, sort of a Hammers kind of celebration or thing. When West Ham were interested. To your point about will they miss him? I mean, I was on a athletic weekend show with David Ornstein and Joe Devine and John McKenzie last week where John showcased really well why so many clubs want John Duran in terms of how dangerous and effective his runs are. So, you know, I defer to that data because that's what everybody's looking at and why they're so excited. But then I look at will Villa miss him? Will they miss his presence? Well, he started four times in the Premier League this year. He played less minutes, fewer minutes than Diego Carlos, who's, you know, been flown out to join Jose's army at Fenerbache, which, you know, given a Tyrone Ming's injury, maybe was a little bit hasty. But, yeah, for someone not playing that much and for even like John last week be saying this is a very small sample size on which to judge a player. I suppose you could look at this and say, if it's that small a sample size, do we really know whether he's going to be able to sustain what we've seen in that small sample size of minutes over a longer period. What are we going to really learn from John Duran going to Saudi Arabia? And I asked Jacob, from a PSR point of view, as we know, because I spoke to you over some, a lot of Villa's moves raised eyebrows, particularly with me used to seeing Italian clubs do swap deals for, for balance sheet purposes. And you know, with Villa we had Douglas Louise going to t Juventus and Illing Jr. And Baronica going the other way, only to be loaned out. Like, you know, is this necessary for them to, to, to. To move on Duran?

[Jacob Tanswell]

Yeah, well, there's. They did the deals with Uve, but they also did deals with Everton with a Robin and Lewis Dogan and Chelsea as well. Ian Matson came in, Amari Kellerman went out. So they were obviously very, very close to breach and PSR last summer. And there's a feeling this year as well they would be close as well because the wage bill keeps getting higher. Emery's ideal signing of Joao Felix, if they do sign him, that's gonna still be a big issue too. And there was a feeling that they would have to make a big sale this summer. Kamara has been talked about. He's probably Villa's best player really in his overall skill set, his overall portent. Similar Rodri to Man City. He's got, got. He'll have two years left of his contract in the summer. No new talks have taken place yet. And I was feeling that he'd be the player that would fetch a big fee. But the fact they can get something for Duran, who like you say, he's only started four times in Premier League, not indispensable. He's not a regular starter by any means. That means they can then focus on getting a new contract for Kamara. They focus on keeping their better players, put money in the back pocket to buy Felix or a center back, which they still need and sell a player who, although that's been so important, scored so many match winning goals and you know, had he not made those contributions, villa would be 13th, 14th, pretty average in the league. He's still not integral to how Emery wants this side to function. So I think it's a good deal for them. And if there was a choice between Kamara and Duran every day of the week, Emery would choose to keep Kamara.

[Sam Lee]

Phil, I mean, Villa ended up winning and beat Celtic 4, 2 and I mean, what a, what a wonderful debut into the Champions League for them. But I think it was this week. We did a podcast on sort of the January transfer window and how much of a disruption it can be for, for coaches. You're going into your final league phase match and then two of your best strikers are looking to be poached from under your nose. It's not great preparation. I Just wonder how derailing that can be.

[Rory Smith]

It was Maresca at Chelsea who was mourning about it most recently, wasn't it? Saying, it is a massive distraction and a hassle. And as I said at the time, which isn't to say that Chelsea aren't at it in the same way as everybody else. The Duran situation is a little bit odd. James is absolutely right. I mean, they will always have the Bayern Munich goal and we'll remember him for that. But he said a goal is a forward who scores bangers consistently, who can't get a game. And he feels to me like the kind of player who in 10 years time people will say, I totally forgotten he was ever at Villa. You know, it's almost as if he's. Once he goes, it's almost if he's never been there. And kind of strange that he hasn't made more of an impact or hasn't been able to. And there is a reason for that because Ollie Watkins is up front. But we've kind of gone from Villa indicating that they had no intention of selling him, as Jacob said, to realizing that actually there was probably pretty firm intention of selling him if the money was right. They were talking about 80 million plus. In the end, he's going for about 60 odd. I can only assume that Jiran is making one of two calculations, or potentially both. A, the money is good enough for him in Saudi that at 21 it's worth going out there, or B, the Saudi pro league is going to develop in such a way that it starts to look as a really smart move in career terms further down the line when it comes to Watkins. I don't think there's any doubt that Arsenal are an incremental step up from Villa, who are not realistically going to qualify for the Champions League next season. But they cannot sell Watkins. I mean, I said in the newsletter it'd be like selling the roof off your house. And if they get squeezed on that front, then when it comes to Arsenal, they should absolutely squeeze the pips when it comes to getting money out of them for Watkins, because he's worth a big, big fee.

[Sam Lee]

Yeah, that's the thing, Jacob. You know, I know they've just bought Danielle Marlin from Dortmund, but in terms of stature of striker, striking ability, I mean, Ollie Watkins is miles ahead in that respect.

[Jacob Tanswell]

The thing with, with Watkins as well is that he's still so critical to how every M Villa plays and he's actually underperformed this XG by a considerable amount. I think it's four and a Half five goals. He should have more than he has this season. He had a lot of big misses and that penalty yesterday was just kind of summed up his erratic finishing. He does fantastic for a couple of the goals. His all round play was brilliant. But then you'll miss, you know, a big chance I think for Watkins. You know, he's 29 now. He's got maybe this summer left that window opportunity to move and for a club like Arsenal to really want him and put big money on the table to allow him to leave. But he signed a big contract, you know, just over a year ago. Now he's, you know, one of the highest earners at the club. He, like I say, he's integral to how Villa want to play. And one of the issues that Emery had with Duran and what a lot of coaches thought was when Duran came on, he often didn't heed the depression triggers or where to stand from set plays where Watkins does that constantly and he can always rely on him. So even though he's not as emphatic a finisher as Duran or, you know, many of the top strikers, what he does over when his reliability is, is key to Villa. So if they were to sell him, you know, Donya Marlins being born to basically be a right winger because Leon Bailey has just hit an absolute wall and he'll probably be moved on in the summer if he carries on at this. They, the strikers really is just Watkins and Joao Felix if they bring him in. But still he's not really in that one at number nine. So you have to keep Watkins.

[Rory Smith]

I imagine that's a really good reminder about his age because he's really baby faced as Watkins and I still have this impression of him as being super young. But to be reminded that he is 29 makes you realize that if there is going to be one massive move out there for him, then the time's going to be, if not now, it's going to be pretty soon.

[Sam Lee]

Yeah, super quick Dems. You just want to jump.

[James Horncastle]

Yeah, precisely because of that. You know what Jacob's just said 29 and he's a high earner at the club. So surely when it comes to your transfer strategy, you should be saying the play we sell has got to be watkins because Duran's 21 and Duran has made four starts in the Premier League. 638 minutes. The succession plan is there. John Duran is going to be the future of Aston Villa. Far be it from me to criticize Monchi again him, but I can see, you know, he's he's provocative. You know, he's, he makes a scene of things and that sort of thing. But isn't this what he's, this situation he's wanted John Duran now, like perhaps, you know, beyond the salary increase that he could get in Saudi Arabia or whatever, the chance to start and be the guy for Aston Villa does. Aren't Arsenal providing Villa with the opportunity here to solve this thing and also you know, sort of take a 29 year old high earner who admittedly is very good. Love Ollie Watkins but like, I mean that should be the direction of travel, shouldn't it Jacob?

[Jacob Tanswell]

It should be. But for Emery, he does think quite short term in terms of the signings. He actually last year he bought in Zaniola and Longley alone because he needed instant players to come in Monji using his fame network of contacts. But regarding Duran, there was just feeling of too many unknowns. Say you did, sir Watkins Villa still had that nagging feeling and quite scary feeling like they still thought, yeah, we can give him the money, we can allow Drown to be main man, but he still might want to move. We just, we can't predict what he's going to be like in the summer or, or the windows to come. We, we still don't know if he's gonna go missing or stay in Colombia for a few weeks or have an injury. He, he, they've got that fright that they sell walk into this window. There's always that feel that drowning. His representatives will come over from Colombia late for pre season. They'll say, guys, we've been talking to Barcelona. I'll be talking to bsg, we want to move there. And then all of a sudden what do Villa do? So I think there are too many unknowns for, for Emery to even countenance.

[Rory Smith]

I also think it can only be the direction of travel if Arsenal actually have the money to meet Watkins market price in this window. And I suspect that they might not.

[Sam Lee]

Okay, we have to end it there. We have to end it there. No more chat on Watkins or Duran, but I loved it nevertheless. Gents, thanks so much for your time at Jacob, James and also Phil as well. And also before I forget, tomorrow James will be live covering the draw for the knockout stages with James Richardson and Julian Larons over on the totally football shows YouTube channel. So make sure you check that out 12:30pm UK time. And also Adam Leventhal is with you tomorrow for the preview ahead of Arsenal versus Manchester City. Thanks for listening.

[Jacob Tanswell]

You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Guy Clark, Mike Stavroot and Jay Beal. The executive producer was aiding to listen to other great athletic podcasts for free. Search for the Athletic on Apple, Spotify and all the usual places. The Athletic FC Podcast is an athletic media company production.

[James Horncastle]

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