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- [00:00]
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- [01:02]
Athletic FC Podcast Host (Adam Leventhal)
The FIFA World Cup 26 is coming to North America next summer. It'll be the ultimate celebration of sports and culture. So get closer to the beautiful game with a hospitality package. Closer to the action in the best seats and suites, closer to match day elevated with world class food and entertainment, closer to the experience of a lifetime. Book a hospitality package@fifaworldcup.com that's fifaworldcup.com Hospitality.
- [01:32]
Adam Leventhal
The Athletic FC. Welcome back to the future of football from the Athletic fc. I'm Adam Leventhal. Now, this summer, Premier League clubs set a new record for spending in a single transfer window at over £3 billion more than La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga combined. So is the Premier League's dominance a problem or is it just healthy competition? Well, with me today we have the athletics, Matt Slater who is back and we are joined by James Horncastle. And you'll also get the insight from two experts from the accounting firm Deloitte a little bit later on in the show. Matt, let's start with you. That headline figure for the Premier League of £3 billion, how significant a moment is it, do you feel in the competition's history it ranking against the other big leagues?
- [02:29]
Matt Slater
Yeah, it is significant. To answer that question, it's not so much the number, right? Because the number, it's inflation and currencies go up and down, right. So nevermind the number. I think it's actually a little bit more than 3 billion, isn't it? It's 3.1. 3.2, depending who you talk to and who you would believe at times. The key thing, and we've been approaching this for a while, particularly since COVID it's the relative strength of the Premier League. And I've never seen anything quite like this summer. So the Premier League spent more than 3 billion. The other four in the big five, so France, Germany, Italy and Spain spent significantly less than 3. That's huge. And that, that, that's almost sort of like the beginning and end of it, to be honest. And we can, you know, we can talk about wages, the size of these clubs, what they're actually doing on the field. Yeah, I mean, a lot closer. But the Premier League's financial might is remarkable. And I think every other league has been nervous about it for some time. And it must be incredibly stark right now when you're not just being outspent by Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, you're being outspent by Bournemouth, Brentford, Fulham. That is one of those sort of moments for me.
- [03:54]
Adam Leventhal
And how has it felt in Italy, James?
- [03:57]
James Horncastle
Well, it's confirmation of what they already knew. I think a lot of people that have bought into Italian football clubs were initially maybe pitched ideas that where the value will come in your investment in the long term is by upping international TV rights, building stadiums and that sort of thing. But I think what they have seen over time is that actually, no, they've been squeezed out when it comes to those international TV rights because the Premier League got their first built an audience, monetized the audience. Those rights are more and more expensive. It means there's less money to go around and less TV time and less space to host the Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga on those channels. And so you have this yawning gap, really. And I think it is a problem. It's not seen as a problem here in the UK because the Premier League is our league. Fans of Premier League clubs want their league to be the richest because it means that their clubs can spend more money and get better. But if you look over the fence at your neighbors and you see that the lawn hasn't been cut for a while and the ceiling's falling in, maybe you would think, oh, maybe you should pop around and see if they're all right. But that isn't the way capitalism works.
- [05:23]
Adam Leventhal
No. And it's certainly not the way football works, is it, Matt? Because if you see someone's down and they're at the top table with you in European football, for example, and you think, well, we're Going to be able to go and win another big trophy. You think, well, yeah, let's keep them down if we can.
- [05:39]
Matt Slater
Yeah, I've got a few things to say to that one. Now, whether you believe them or not is totally up to you. The Premier League would say they're actually not as ruthless as that, that actually they do care about the bigger picture. They do care about this sort of idea of, you know, rising tides, lifting all boats, and they don't want to impoverish the rest of the street.
- [05:58]
James Horncastle
Right.
- [05:59]
Matt Slater
They believe in competition and that's certainly the story they've told here. And I think they've delivered. Right. They do. You know, there's lots of reasons why the Premier League has reached this lofty position. And, you know, James is right. First mover, English language, where it sits in the sort of global. You know, the fact that we went around the world exploring things and Greenwich, meantime, runs through our country. That helps. So, again, we were first movers. You know, the Premier League has done a good job. It's told a good story over 30 years. It's had great relationships with its broadcast partners. It's made. It's almost like avoided a lot of stupid things as well. It's built stadiums. We might get into this later, James. I mean, one of the things I often wonder is when Italy, France, Germany, whatever, has these sort of moments of, oh, you know, moaning about the Premier League, do they ever look at themselves and say, we kind of blew this. We were the top dogs in the 90s. Spain was the top dog 15 years ago. We have sort of allowed this to happen. But the other thing, I would say, so, you know, whether you want to believe the Premier League, that they are not as ruthless and as capitalistic and as whatever is all that, it's certainly something they say privately. I do think, particularly this summer, there was, and I've noticed it since COVID Everyone hurt in Covid. Everyone, our clubs, everyone coming out of COVID The Premier League was the first to start spending again. Okay. Then there was a tiny bit of a retrenchment, I think, as the Premier League started to apply its rule book. And a lot of clubs were buying on credit this summer, though, I think that they've looked around at the weakness and all Premier League clubs have gone shopping. So I do think there is something to what, James, Something to your question, really, that, you know, there's an opportunity here. We have a competitive advantage. Let's nail it.
- [07:51]
Adam Leventhal
Yeah, they've certainly taken advantage of it. Well, let's. Let's Ask James the question that you posed there, Matt. You know, the people that you speak to in Italy and you've been connected with Italian football for years and years and years and you know, the top guys, do they feel they did blow it, they had the opportunity and they missed their chance.
- [08:10]
James Horncastle
So I don't think there's any resentment towards the Premier League for acting in the way the Premier League has done. I think if anything, there's admiration for all of the things that Matt has said. They had a very clear strategy when they broke away from the football league and they've maximized that strategy to become the kind of primary league in world football. When Keys and Gray were on sky in the 90s, saying this is the best league in the world, when it clearly wasn't, they did speak truth into reality. Ultimately, it became that way. And I remember CDI in the 90s, City Eye was in an ascendant position. It had, I would say, a pioneering domestic broadcast model which was to take football private, have competition between various different streaming companies, and that particularly because in Italy, broadcast rights were bargained on an individual basis rather than on a collective basis. So your seven sisters, the Italian equivalent of the big six, were able to make so much more money than everybody else on the pyramid. It meant that with that and in conjunction with the fact that they had these sugar daddy owners who were spending money and wanted to be associated with success in football, it meant that the other aspects of the business they didn't pay attention to, didn't pay attention to building stadiums, didn't pay attention to, let's say, not ignoring international rights. Because the reason why there's a big following for Italian football in the UK is because it was on free to air television. When sky had taken the Premier League off free to air, there was just Channel four, was there. But I think in the long term, they did take the eye off, monetizing that and being sort of reliable brokers on that. The issue now is the Premier League has had this consistent strategy throughout Italy, hasn't Spain. You know, it's two and a half clubs, it's Real Madrid, Barcelona, Germany. You know, you have Bayern who have kind of weathered, I would say, this difference in TV rights revenue because they have such an incredible commercial operation at Bayern. But I've said this before and I'll say it again, we need to stop talking about top five leagues. There's one league and then there are some big clubs. Okay. And I think Matt's talked about COVID You know, the Super League came in Covid it was a response to Covid, but it was a response to graffiti that had already been written on the wall about where this was going. And I remember, for example, Andrea Agnelli came to the Leaders in Football Conference at Stamford bridge in the mid 2010s, and he said, if you think of European football as a train, you know, we're sort of straddled between the first class carriage and second class, and, you know, we have to do something to ensure that we stay in that first class carriage. And that was either Super League and. Or let's sign Cristiano Ronaldo. Super League didn't happen. Covid hit after they'd signed Ronaldo, and all of a sudden, look where your answers are now. Everything that they tried and I think tried with some justification, missed. And now that gap is ever greater, and I don't think it's bridgeable. I just don't see it.
- [11:56]
Adam Leventhal
We'll dig into some of the issues that you've raised there, in particular about broadcasting and how key that is to pressing home the Premier League's advantage, but also opportunities that other leagues seemingly now are taking a little bit later on. But, Matt, I wanted to bring, you know, Real Madrid into this because they are obviously still the juggernauts, passing, you know, £1 billion in terms of their revenues. But seven Premier League clubs, including Tottenham and Nottingham Forest, outspent them this summer. Is that worrying for the balance of power in Europe or what does it tell us?
- [12:36]
Matt Slater
What does it worry you? Who's worried?
- [12:43]
Adam Leventhal
It doesn't. It certainly doesn't worry me. Should it worry the others? I suppose that's the big question, isn't it?
- [12:52]
Matt Slater
Yeah, yeah, it should and it is the answer. I think James touched upon it in his. There's no such thing as a big five anymore. There's a big one and then there's big clubs. We've sort of been there for a while, I think, and we shouldn't gloss over that, because if it was as simple as sometimes the Premier League's biggest critics or biggest moaners would have you believe it. They're winning everything. They win every trophy, they win every transfer battle. They. How can we possibly compete? This is ridiculous. This is, you know, the Premier League versus the National League. It's not that true. It's not true, though, is it? You know, the Premier League clubs don't win every European trophy. They've got the top coefficient so consistently they're doing the best. For the last few years, we are having situations where our mid ranking clubs, our mid Tier clubs like Manchester United and Spurs can go all the way to a final and can contest and do that. And Chelsea, another. No, they want mid ranking. They can win the Conference League. Yeah, that's happening. But I'm pretty sure PSG beat how many clubs on the Premier League clubs on the way?
- [14:01]
Adam Leventhal
3?
- [14:01]
Matt Slater
4? They beat the best of us. Right. Barcelona still pretty good. Real are pretty good. Bayern. So there's your handful. And that's what I think is sort of maintaining the competitive balance within Europe. I'd say that's more worrying for all those domestic leagues. The fact that those clubs have become detached from their own leagues and have this regular annual access, compounding access to Champions League money. And now of course FIFA club World cup money, their gaps are getting worse. So yeah, La liga is a 2 1/2 horse race. That's terrible. Now, it's kind of always been that, but never this bad, you know, Valencia, Seville, Deportivo, if you go a long way back, would win things every now and then. Germany's an interesting one. Germany's got loads of big clubs. Germany has proper movement. Empires fall in Germany. Herta, Berlin, Cologne, Hamburg, Schalke. Oh, apart from one. Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich doesn't fall. Italy's the most exciting of the lot. France is. Well, so there's that. That's worrying. I'm more worried about that.
- [15:19]
Adam Leventhal
Tell us, James, in terms of the. In the sort of them and us debate within Italy and the state of Serie A in terms of its competitiveness, what do people say about it?
- [15:34]
James Horncastle
Well, look, I mean, Serie A. Matt spoke about the Premier League being top of the coefficient. Last year, this year, the year before that, it was Serie A, they had five teams in the Champions League league phase because, yeah, they were the first of the. The top five leagues, which I'm. I've. I've basically stopped myself from saying that. But stop saying it for the use of this argument. First one, to really take the Conference League seriously. So where Mourinho won the. The inaugural one with Roma, Fiorentina went to back to back finals, we've seen in the Europa League. Atalanta won the Europa League in Dublin against Leverkuse. And we've seen Interreach Europa League finals and two Champions League finals. But it's kind of been in, in spite of itself. You know, it's. It's a mini renaissance. But it's not because, for example, there has been some dramatic change in strategy on the league's part. It's because there's a very good coaching class. Italy Might not produce Roberto Baggios, del Piero's and Tottis anymore, but it still produces great coaches and it's got great executives as well, many of whom end up being spread out around the Premier League. But in the past, we've spoken about cycles in football when teams have been successful or leagues have been successful, it's ultimately come back around to another league and then another league. And I think that's because if you look at the kind of revenue streams in the past, back in the old days, it was determined by how big your stadium was and you would maybe add another tier or expand the stand or move into a bigger stadium and that would kind of push you in. And it would also depend on your development of players. And because the gaps between, let's say the Bernabeu and Old Trafford weren't that big, players who came through at Real Madrid, they weren't interested in going to Man United, and Man United couldn't offer them much more than what Real Madrid were paying for them. So teams would stay together, whereas now it's not going to be cyclical because the economic disparity is so great. Again, to come back to Italy. And Matt's point, was there any kind of self awareness here? Hang on a minute, we've kind of tripped ourselves up or we haven't invested in ourselves enough to be competitive. In Citi, you have a situation at the moment where more than half the teams are foreign owned. And those foreign owners have all come in with lofty ideas of saying, okay, that guy before me, he couldn't build a stadium, but I'm American, I can. And it's not been for a lack of desire or for a lack of capital. It's bureaucracy, it's politics. It's Italy kind of holding itself back. Rather than new owners, the League, you have a situation at the moment where AC Milan make I think 80 million from San Siro every year. Real Madrid, who have been able to completely repurpose and redevelop the Bernabeu, I think make 320 million a year from that stadium. The Premier League, as Matt says, has been able to, you know, in Liverpool's case, expand Anfield or, you know, I had another Italian executive, he was in town in London, flew in to Heathrow and he must have been coming for the period of a year, drives into town from Heathrow, he sees this, Cranes in the sky by a flyover. Then next time he comes, sees this, something that looks like a stadium going up. And then by the end of the year, Brentford have Got a new stadium. And in Italy, this drives them crazy. They're just like, wow, like, you know, this, this small club that had never been in the Premier League until a few years ago has been able to do what we've been trying to do for 10 years and they've done it in half the time or even faster than that. So on the one hand, there's the infrastructure gap, which means they can't retain the players because they can't generate revenue to pay them higher wages or buy higher players. And then as it comes back to, you've got the TV rights debate, which is again, Italy and England or Italy and the uk similar population sizes, but in the UK you have a higher GDP per capita, which means higher spending power. If you buy a subscription for sky, it could be £70, €90. In Italy, a Dazon subscription is €30,000, €30 and that's seen as a lot. So Dazn aren't paying Italian clubs what sky are paying English clubs. And then you've got that international TV rights, which again, to give you an idea, the CBS deal that Serie A has in the US is worth 10 million a year. The Premier League's deal with NBC, Matt, I think is like in what, 350 a year or something like that. UEFA are the ones who have the biggest problem here because if the Champions League is to remain the absolute pinnacle of European football in the mid to long run, it's going to be harder and harder for teams to compete with Premier League teams. So, you know, I think it's Alexander Sephrin that I would like to invite on the next episode of this podcast. You saw the Super League, Alexander, but like in the long run, how do you protect the competitive balance of your big money spinning tournament? How do you do that?
- [21:28]
Matt Slater
I just look around, you know, I love Italian football. I don't think enough is said about their failure to improve their infrastructure to treat their fans better. The Stanciro was one of the most disappoint, one of the strangest ones on my bucket list, you know, walking up out of the station, seeing this fantastic cathedral that I dreamed of going to and my option to buy beer was a bloke in a shopping trolley with about 300 cans that he bought from the supermarket. And then the best food was from a like Italian sausage shack, you know, in the car park. We were then tr. I was with the away fans. We were treated appallingly. The toilets were locked, there was nothing to eat at halftime. The stadium was in a bit of a state. The toilets were disgusting. I think Italian fans threw stuff at us from a, from a, from a deck above as we were trying to queue for a really bad, you know, and I was like, I've wanted to come here for 20 years.
- [22:27]
James Horncastle
I remember covering a Milan derby a few years ago and you come out of the press stand and there, there's one toilet, okay? And it's a fairly grim toilet. And so there were people queuing and the person in front of me in the queue was Andrea Bocelli. And I was so grateful that Andrea Pagett could not see what he was walking into because it was not good enough.
- [23:01]
Adam Leventhal
Okay, next up, we are going to be discussing the challenges facing the Premier League in maintaining their status as top dogs.
- [23:13]
Athletic FC Podcast Host (Adam Leventhal)
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- [26:13]
Adam Leventhal
So, as we've been discussing, the Premier League are top of the tree, but what are some of the challenges that they could face to stay there? Let's hear from Deloitte's head of sport, Tim Bridge, on any advice that he could give to the other leagues to try and keep up.
- [26:27]
Tim Bridge (Deloitte Head of Sport)
Well, look, I think if you'd asked me that question sort of like five to 10 years ago, everybody talked about, oh, it's the international market, you've got to find a way to, to really commercialize the, the international fan base. I think that's changing. I think now fundamentally we are reaching a point whereby leagues, clubs, everybody, even the Premier League in due course needs to think about what is the future of football. So what is it that is the product? What is it that the fans are going to engage with every day? In the same way, the thirst for content is higher than ever, but it's more fragmented than ever as well. And so if you're those competing leagues, you've got to find ways of making sure that you're making money and the crudest sense from all of those different channels. So be it the kind of social media debate, be it the content production, be it the news stories, be it the podcasts, how is it the league bodies themselves actually benefit from what is one of what is the most talked about topic in the world, probably. And it's so fragmented that ultimately they don't participate in all those ways to make money. So I think that's the evolution really is how do they maximize that opportunity.
- [27:42]
Matt Slater
So that's really interesting because I thought you were going to say it's international tours, maybe it's taking competitive games abroad, which is something we've discussed on this podcast. Maybe it is super league, cross border leagues, it's that kind of thing. But you're actually saying, if I've understood you, it really is kind of raising their game in terms of content creation across the piece.
- [28:03]
Tim Bridge (Deloitte Head of Sport)
I just sense it's coming to a point where it's a little bit more fundamental, Matt. So I think, I think you've got a bit of an inflection point really, whereby you've got your generation of fans who were brought up going to the game, watching 90 minutes. It was the, you know, the live match was the absolute appointment to view. Now I think I still think that will exist, but I think the demand on people's times now, time now is so diverse that ultimately how are leagues going to. Going to capitalize on that? You could think about radical ways of, you know, changing the league structure or taking games abroad. And you know, we sit here in Europe now and if you believe kind of the media reports around what the big American properties are considering, then, you know, they're trying to also think about how they expand into European markets. And so it's not without threat as well. There's more kind of, there's more competing parties for people's leisure time and viewing time. So everything's getting squeezed, Matt. And I think that football has to step forward into that challenge and has to recognize that its relevance in 10, 15, 20 years, time will likely look very different to how it looks today. And that's not a problem. That's exciting and a challenge to face up to.
- [29:23]
Adam Leventhal
So, James, from your point of view, do you think that the opportunity for others to try and catch up is to really dig into various leagues? USP and City Hour certainly has that. So to be able to sort of diversify and bring an audience in from. From the periphery, almost.
- [29:45]
James Horncastle
Yeah, I mean, catch up. What do you mean by catch up? I mean, I've spoken to a lot of people over the years, people from leagues that Andrea Agnelli feared that La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A would become these leagues being Portugal, Scotland and sort of Holland, really. And I remember speaking to someone at Benfica and I was like, well, how do you not move away from having this player trading model which you develop players and then sell them to the Premier League? But how do you do more than that? Because you can't guarantee you have a golden generation every year that you can sell off. He said, look, the way we look at it is we need to just maintain the gap. We need to run to standstill. We need that gap between now and the Premier League not to grow anymore because, like, catching it up. No, we're not going to catch it up. We're not going to get parity, we're not going to overtake them. We just have to maintain the gap as it is today, you know, well, what do you do to capture more attention, get more eyeballs? Now, if I was City, I'd lean into just how bonkers and crazy the league is. And sort of just because that draws people in, they're just like, wow, this is only in Serie A.
- [31:02]
Adam Leventhal
Even the national team helps that as well, doesn't it? You know, just crazy games happening and, you know, it helps. It all helps.
- [31:08]
James Horncastle
It does.
- [31:08]
Adam Leventhal
You just have to see.
- [31:10]
Matt Slater
Reassuringly mad.
- [31:11]
James Horncastle
Yeah, you just have to see. You just have to think of it as if football is kind of a Netflix style platform. The Premier League is prestige tv. You just have to establish yourself as another genre on the Netflix of football, you know. And now in City Ask Case, that might be one of those kind of wild cult documentaries or something like that. But the thing is, we are seeing more and more leagues now take risks. They're having to take risks because they either haven't been able to get the broadcast money that they wanted to, or expected from American broadcasters or other international broadcasters. They're taking chances. We've seen this with the Bundesliga in terms of spreading out their rights across the BBC in this country, using a YouTuber like Goldbridge for. For Watch Alongs we've seen La Liga partner with the rest is football Lineker's podcast. We've seen ourselves the Athletic. We carried highlights of the club World Cup. How do you reach more people rather than just going behind a paywall on a subscription TV or streaming model? I think we're going to see these things become even more fragmented in order for us to. To be more aware of them. And then the other risk that these clubs are willing to take or leagues are willing to take, which the Premier League is not, because it's seen the backlash, is to take a competitive game abroad. And I would say that these leagues are only doing this because they have to be first movers. They feel that they have to do something different to stand out. And you can question, okay, Serieh, why Western Australia, why Perth to play AC Milan against Coma? Aside from the fact that Western Australia is prepared to pay around 30 million to have one game, okay, but I had a colleague who said to me, these leagues, it's a dangerous game. Aren't they setting a precedent like that, sort of playing a game abroad? Because that opens up all of a sudden, you can be taking multiple games abroad or these clubs might get ideas about, okay, well, super League, here we go again. But the reality is, I think it's the economics that they're facing, the squeeze that they're facing that is leading them to take these riskier decisions.
- [33:47]
Adam Leventhal
We're going to get stuck into the broadcasting side of things in a moment's time. But just on the point regarding overseas games, and we discussed it on the previous episode and I've been thinking about it between then and now and I know that, you know, there will be a lot of people listening that are dead against games, domestic games being played abroad, but it just struck me that if you are going to do it, and I know that there's been some worries about, for example, Barcelona playing an away game technically in La Liga, but playing it in the States and it becoming a home game, so then that impacts the competitive advantage and it sort of skews it one way, et cetera, et cetera. But would it not make more sense, Matt, if you are going to do this foreign game stuff, to take an entire match day, one weekend, you know, tie it up with a, with a broadcaster for that weekend as well and do it in that way, sort of take, take everything and the kitchen sink, do it for a whole weekend and then everyone can be part of it rather than just one, one or two teams being selected.
- [34:49]
Matt Slater
Well, I've got an amazing idea because taking your entire match weekend away, you still got that competitive integrity issue. Someone's still giving up a home game, right? And there's the potential of big team playing in front of a so called neutral crowd and it not being neutral at all. How about this for an idea? You create a round of games, right? So everyone still plays home and away and this could be a 39th game. It's an amazing idea. And that's the one you take away, right? I can't believe no one's thought of that. It's so obvious. Listeners of a younger than I'm sure I was 30. I don't know. The Premier League tried that in 2008 or nine and got absolutely smashed for it. And that is why no one at Premier League HQ is allowed to talk about this. Never, ever, ever discuss that again. It's the kind of camping trip from hell that. Right. We're not doing. We're not. We're not. We're not doing that. The Italians and Spanish can do that. We're not doing it. They might do it if it works, but they're not doing it yet. So that's my, that's my take on that one.
- [36:00]
Adam Leventhal
I don't have an issue. I don't have such a big issue with it now. I think things have moved forward and I know that there's that sort of, what now?
- [36:05]
Matt Slater
In 24 hours you've thought about it? No.
- [36:10]
Adam Leventhal
In terms of the difference between when the 39th game was sort of the whole topic, we've had bigger and perhaps more difficult arguments since then. It doesn't seem to be that outlandish to suggest it.
- [36:26]
Matt Slater
If you're going to do it. The 39th game's not a bad idea. If you're okay with taking games abroad and breaking that bond between community and, you know, if you're okay with that, Adam, then yeah, the 39th game is a great idea.
- [36:41]
Adam Leventhal
Well, the game's got to change. The game's got to evolve. And we will talk about it in the way that it's evolving in the broadcast space.
- [36:49]
Tim Lunn (Deloitte Director of Media Rights)
Next.
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- [38:23]
Athletic FC Podcast Host (Adam Leventhal)
This is the Athletic FC podcast with Adam Levantal.
- [38:27]
Adam Leventhal
Okay, now it is time to hear from another of Matt's interviewees. It's Tim Lunn, who is the director of media rights at Deloitte. Let's hear what he has to say about TV deals. There are 3pm blackout and whether any of the other big leagues can catch the Premier League.
- [38:44]
Tim Lunn (Deloitte Director of Media Rights)
It feels like it'd be difficult to see a turnaround over sort of three, four, five, six years. I think, you know, the consistency the Premier League have had and even in, I mean, when you look, if you look globally at media rights values across all sports everywhere, they have plateaued and in some degrees gone down dramatically. So your ability is the Premier League to retain the value that you've had before with slot with a slight increase is a really massive win. And I think a lot of those leagues have, have struggled to do that. I don't see that necessarily changing in the foreseeable future. But I think sometimes we forget when we think about numbers and rights, fees and markets is all still driven by stars and clubs. And that can change. You know, you can have the next Messi come from somewhere. You know, we know the dominance of Barca and Real Madrid in La Liga. So that, that can still change and those leagues can take leaps and bounds forward over time. But I wouldn't see that in the next, the next few years.
- [39:34]
Matt Slater
Okay, let's think about the Premier League then. So they're doing really nicely, doing a fantastic job abroad. People want to watch. You mentioned the fact, I think that this current domestic cycle is four years, a little bit longer than usual. What's the next deal going to look like? Are we going longer? Are we going to have more players in the mix? We're going to have fewer, you know, because one of the things I often hear when I write about broadcast and sport is, oh, another, do I need another subscription? You know, is that where we go in with this?
- [40:03]
Tim Lunn (Deloitte Director of Media Rights)
Well, I think, yeah, if you start as a, as a consumer, I think anybody feels frustrated, I guess. And it's not just with sport. It can be wider with entertainment than the number of subscriptions. You may need to have to see everything you want to see. But I think, I think there's a couple of things that can happen. One is if the competition here now is generally less Between TNT and Sky, it seems fairly settled. Obviously Amazon came in and have gone out and have picked up Champions League here as well. So it doesn't seem like the most sort of dominant and competitive time now. That being said, therefore, if you need to increase those revenues, which clubs will demand and the league will want to, there's a couple of ways in which you can do that. One is to increase what we would call match inventory, but effectively show more, show the 380 games as opposed to, as opposed to the numbers they show now. And how you do that obviously leads to the question of the 3:00pm backup. So this, it's almost just a sort of chronology of thinking which makes you realize that the way to do that, the way to increase those rights fees is to. And you can open up a significant amount more games that may attract what we could argue is a third buyer. So if you, if we assume that sky have increased obviously their number of games massively this year and will obviously continue to, to be at the forefront of football here, assuming TNT are doing similar, maybe want some more matches, if there's more games now overall and 380 were available, then there's an opportunity then for another broadcaster, be them a domestic broadcaster or a streamer to get involved. So they're kind of potential ways in which changes could happen. From 2029.
- [41:25]
Matt Slater
I want to put you on the spot. 3pm blackout, it's days of numbers. We're not going to have another 3pm blackout three, four years time, are we?
- [41:34]
Tim Lunn (Deloitte Director of Media Rights)
I think there could well be, but there's increasing sort of momentum and pressure and one of the questions around that, which is a legitimate concern, is piracy. And I know people in industry and the broadcasters have often spoken around the fact that piracy is become more rampant because 3pm the games aren't available in the UK and people can argue that either way, but that's clearly a concern. So I think something like that can potentially be the driver of a change on the 3pm blackout, which, which it feels like there's time, you know, there's, there's time for that to happen. There's a few more years for that momentum to build. Maybe some of those increasing frustrations of not being able to see the 3pm So I wouldn't definitely wouldn't be surprised if the change comes, comes next time around.
- [42:10]
Matt Slater
That makes complete sense. So speaking of international deals, it's one that's had an awful lot of attention, possibly more attention than some of the games, of course, is the Bundesliga deal here, right, where we have that blend, right? They have that relationship with Sky Sports and then of course they have got some other games. I think it's a Friday night game which they're basically showing completely non exclusively in three different places. And you really sort of, you know, you pick how you want to consume it. I'll watch along with Mark Goldbridge. I'll watch on the BBC. I'll watch with Gary Lineker. Can you imagine the Premier League one doing that? I suppose I'll flip it. One having to do that feeling that they need to do that and then actually doing it.
- [42:50]
Tim Lunn (Deloitte Director of Media Rights)
Yeah, I think, yeah, I think first of all, I guess what the Bundesliga then is they've maybe not got to the right valuation that they would hope is my feeling. And therefore you try to be creative. But I think that's a good thing because if you're not getting the value that you want to, you need to test the learner, try and find new audiences because you're now playing the long game, you're going, but if I can, if I can find something that ignites interest and drives growth, I can get back to the revenue part of it. It's just a different way of thinking. So hats off to them for trying things and doing that. Second part of your question, I think if it's when it comes to the Premier League, they're not really in the position to have to do that yet. So those things only come about through necessity. I think so at the moment, yeah, they may well try that, but I think they're, they're trying something in a market. Somewhere in the world is we've got our own platform for live.
- [43:37]
Adam Leventhal
So, Matt, in terms of the next TV rights cycle, and I know we've seen some developments in terms of overseas rights and interesting partnerships and we'll come on to them in a minute. But we've been expecting this big change over the last couple of cycles and it hasn't quite arrived. Do you see 2029 as being the one where it all shifts and changes?
- [44:04]
Matt Slater
No, I don't think I do. Not for the Premier League. I mean, the others are all experimenting, experimenting because they have to, particularly in their secondary market. So, like, you know, the Germans love the Bundesliga, right? They're watching the Italians love Serie A. Now, are they getting as much value for those eyeballs as the, the Premier League? No, we've discussed that already. But, you know, don't no one get the idea that, you know, football's in a, in a, in a dreadful place on the continent. It's not, it's really popular. So where we're getting this experimentation is when they have to sell their rights abroad. And as James mentioned, you know, first mover, the pie is only so big, you know, they're finding it a bit of a struggle and I think there's other reasons. Like I said, I don't think they've looked after their league. They haven't looked after the competitive balance within their league. Invested. I know you might sort of think what's a stadium got to do with how it looks on tv? It, it matters. You know, we saw during COVID the fans weren't there. It affected what it looked like. The sound, the color. This matters, the players feel it, right? So it does all matter, trust me. And then of course it matters because the matchday revenue really helps and it just helps the whole product. Better players, better coaches, all, it all fits. But all those other leagues are experimenting. Does the Premier League need to experiment as much? No.
- [45:31]
Adam Leventhal
Will it?
- [45:32]
Matt Slater
I think it will because they're really good at tv. This has been part of their story. They've been talking about direct to consumer prem flicks. It's come up almost every cycle. For the last couple conversations, you know they went early on going to a streamer if you like. They created that, you know, that entire match week package to bring Amazon to the table and Amazon did it for a cycle or two, the kind of pre Christmas one it was basically made for them. You care about selling stuff around Christmas time. We'll give you a round of games in early December and we'll give you a Boxing Day. That's brilliant. Right. If you're Amazon, I can't think of two bad days. So the Premier League have, have experimented as well and they've been good at it. So will they do it again? I know that they've thought about if we're going to go direct to consumer we should pick a market. Singapore was one that I think they've looked at where it's quite nice and contained. Premier League's popular. Popular enough. We've got the right number of customers there. We're not, we're not like trying to sell to China. Singapore I think is manageable. They haven't done it yet. They haven't done it because they're still getting good money for the old fashioned model at some point I think they will in one of these markets. Have a look what I have noticed that the Premier League is doing and again it's, they're very good at like seeing winds of change from the States and what have you. They're bringing a lot of the production in house. They're spending a lot of money on shoulder content and just how they interact with broadcasters.
- [47:07]
James Horncastle
They're.
- [47:07]
Matt Slater
They're just ahead of the others in so many little ways. So those are where I think I see things changing. Is that radical, to go back to your question? No, I don't think it's radical to you or I, you know, the, the end user. I think there's going to be some changes in the next domestic cycle. I don't know if the 3pm blackout has got long to go and that is really connected to. We spend a lot of time kind of talking about all the other league problems. Apparently it's got problems too, and challenges too. One is piracy. Massive, huge issue for every broadcaster, every league and the Premier League fills it too. And one of the drivers, not the only one cost is one, of course, of piracy is the fact that we don't show all the games. And there's a generation of football fans, some of them live in my house, who still can't get their head around the fact that when they go to get their hair cut they can watch all the games but at home they can't. Right, how, how is that happening, dad? So I think we're going to get all 380 games and if nothing else, right, because it's the inventory. They need to flog more games to get the same amount of money from domestic broadcasters and I think it helps their piracy problem. So that will be a radical change.
- [48:21]
Adam Leventhal
That's very interesting and you know, not to have too much of a spoiler alert, but it is that area. Illegal streaming is something that I'm sort of taking a focus on at the moment, so. So do watch this space from your point of view, James. It's interesting to get your take on this. Obviously you worked on a great show on BT Sport for a number of years. I've worked at sky in the past for a long period of time. Matt's mentioned there the fact that, yes, piracy, illegal streaming and things like that is a big issue. Do you think that BT sort of enjoyed their time and then thought actually one can't necessarily compete with Sky's relationship with the Premier League, but also that the future isn't necessarily for a nuts and bolts traditional broadcaster. It is going to be platform based and we're maybe not in it for the full on long term.
- [49:22]
James Horncastle
Correct me if I'm wrong, but originally when the deal with TNT was done, it was a joint venture and you know, I mean, BT got into it in the same way that sky got into it. Sky wanted to sell broadcast satellite dishes, BT wanted to sell high speed broadband, which I know you're in the market for Adam, at the moment, but, you know, I mean, I think, you know, what we've seen is that even for huge companies like bt, the cost for broadcast rights just so, so expensive. And there was this feeling certainly among, if you talk to individuals who have invested in Premier League teams, who bought Premier League teams, the banks that have advised them and said, yeah, this is a really good idea, they'll have sent them decks which showed how TV rights just go up and up and up and up. Almost as like, I'm going to keep rising. This curve is never going to. It's never going to plateau. But of course it sort of has plateaued, or the increases that we're seeing from cycle to cycle are smaller than before and the gains really are now abroad, internationally. But I find it really interesting what Matt was saying there about the Premier League taking more and more in house. They've always conceptualized themselves as a kind of media and entertainment company as well as sort of a. A body that organizes a league. And that's where they've really separated themselves. But the cost of running these channels is so much. I saw this, for example, when it came to making a European football show on a Sunday night in terms of production and all that sort of thing. So much of the production spend or the budget goes on the Premier League. So there's not much left over for making like a show on a Sunday night about European football. And by the way, it's Sunday night when you're broadcasting that sort of 7:45 city, our game, because there isn't a Premier League game on a Sunday night. But by the time you get there, most people are so footballed out they've watched all this Premier League regardless of the blackout. And, you know, Adam and Matt are getting their kids ready for school on a Monday morning and, you know, it's just not worth doing to some extent, despite there being a kind of small hardcore audience. It's expensive, but the Premier League is the main ticket in town. It squeezes everybody out by being so popular. So, you know, that's the situation we're in.
- [52:01]
Adam Leventhal
One final point to you, Matt, and it's one that we could have touched upon in the previous episode, but let's do it now. And it is on James's point in terms of having too much football and that fear of not filling every moment of the calendar, the club world cup, which I met up with James out in, in Miami and we had, we had a chat, which featured on, on a previous podcast All All About. Felt like it filled a gap that didn't need to be filled in terms of an audience just having a breather, just being able to focus on something else for a bit. Maybe just go off and enjoy watching Wimbledon for two weeks or don't watch any sport or go and play some golf or whatever you want to go and do. Read a book, whatever, you know. Does football need to worry about filling every waking moment?
- [52:57]
Matt Slater
Yeah, yeah, you're preaching to the converted here. I'm not Brazilian, so I didn't really care about the Club World Cup. I don't support Chelsea. It completely passed me by. Now I'm a professional football journalist, so I had to kind of pay some attention to it. I was mainly sort of following James's adventures and yours in Miami. But no, it wasn't a space that needed filling for me. But I'm not the only football fan out there. You know, FIFA and the big clubs are well within their rights to put on a better Club World cup than the one we've kind of ignored for 30 years. And if I supported a team that might ever make that competition, I'd probably care, but I don't. I'm a big believer in scarcity.
- [53:45]
Adam Leventhal
And that's maybe the point, isn't it? That's. Yeah, that's the point, Matt. It's there now. Things are there like, like taking games abroad, like the Club World cup to appeal to a new audience. And that's something that maybe, you know, people of different generations won't necessarily appreciate.
- [54:02]
Matt Slater
But if we just bring it back to the Premier League, right, the Premier League's point on that is you could argue they took games away when they went, when they left the Football League, right, they took some games away. They didn't go to 18, they went to 20 from 22. And they've been taking games out in terms of cup replays. So their point is domestic football is kind of what it is. It really works here. You lot are adding games and why are you adding games? If we tie it all together, it's because from the pressure from, you know, the. Andrea Regnelli's, James's favorite football executive and Bon Viver. Hey, was it Bon Justo? Anyway, it's that Voice Screaming a FIFA's ear, right? We need you to put more high profile, lucrative games on because the Premier League are galloping off into the distance. I'm trying to straddle those two railway carriages and I'm in a cartoon like position now. So that's, that's the problem. The prem. The Premier League's point is, you know, okay, we're doing okay now. You know, I think the point is when you're, when you're the top dog, you know, when you're running Kodak or Blockbuster, what's the challenge down the road? Right. When you're running Nokia, what's the challenge down the road? Because that's the position Premier League are in right now.
- [55:23]
James Horncastle
AI Football.
- [55:28]
Adam Leventhal
Well, yeah, we could do a completely different series on that. The future of football may not be real football at all because esports are growing, you know, exponentially and that's maybe more interesting to the next generation, but we can't do that now. James, thank you very much indeed. Matt, thank you as well and for all your hard work getting the, getting the interviews that we featured in this episode. Once again, thanks to you all for listening. Tune into part three of the Future of Football Tomorrow where we'll be talking about the sustainability of the football pyramid in England. We'll see you then.
- [56:08]
Athletic FC Podcast Host (Adam Leventhal)
You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers are Guy Clark, Mike Stabre and Jay Beale. Executive producers are Abby Patterson and Aiddy Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts for free, including our dedicated club shows, search for the Athletic on Apple, Spotify and all the usual places. You'll also find us on YouTube at the Athletic FC Podcast, so make sure you subscribe. The Athletic FC Podcast is an athletic media company production.
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Really? That's great news. High five everybody.
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