Producer Mike (1:58)

Hello, Michael.

Michael Bailey (1:59)

Michael Cox.

Michael Cox (2:00)

Hi, Michael.

Michael Bailey (2:01)

And Mark Carey.

Mark Carey (2:02)

Hi, Michael.

Michael Bailey (2:03)

Hello, all. This week's episode was inspired by you guys. Robbie got in touch via our email address tacticspod theathletic.com to write. I heard about spurs terrible home record in the last year or so. And then someone referenced how Everton are doing better away than at home this season. What happens to home advantage when teams move stadiums? But also potentially a wider discussion is why home advantage is an advantage and when it isn't. Thank you, Robbie, for the great starting point. Let's do some fact checking first before we talk theories. Michael, how does Tottenham's home record rank in the pantheon of teams being rubbish in their own stadium?

Michael Cox (2:44)

Yeah, it's pretty bad. Robbie mentions over the last year, I've just looked at this season. So far they've won only 33% of their points at home. Now, we're midway through this season, so relatively small sample size, but it's. I mean, it would be on course to be up there with the worst. So the worst or the lowest I should say, because you could say it's the best percentage of away points. I suppose the lowest percentage of points won at home in the Premier League hero was actually last season. Ipswich only won once at home all season, curiously against Chelsea with a golden assist from Liam Delap. Maybe what attracted Chelsea and that was 32% of their points they won at home. It's slightly annoying that that is now the worst because I really liked a bit of trivia with the previous worst, which was another relegated team, Crystal palace in 97, 98. Now that was funny because their first home win of the season came in March, but they'd actually won at Selhurst park previously that season because Wimbledon were ground sharing there. They won away at Wimbledon and then they nevertheless took 16 games to get their first official home win at Selhurst Park. And palace weirdly have a bit of a track record of being better away from home than at Solhurst Park. Also in the lowest 15 home points percentages won have been palace in 14, 15 and 18, 19. And we talk about atmosphere and, you know, relationship with the fans and familiarity with the ground, but I think palace in general have just been a side that have been set up to play counter attacking football. They're not very good traditionally at breaking down deep defences. They are very good on the break and I think they were usually more suited to playing away from home.

Mark Carey (4:25)

Well, it's interesting that you say that because they do have a better away record this season as well than home. And there's only four sides who do obviously. Spurs being one of them, palace being another. West Ham and Everton are the only four this season. And it's maybe worth just speaking about this season. And I'm happy to go historically as well, Michael, of those who've had maybe the best home record. So let's keep it positive for a little bit. But in terms of the sort of the home advantage, Sunderland are comfortably sort of skewed in that regard. And I found a really interesting website that basically looked at home advantage and they calculated it as a home advantage rating. Now this is a ratio that's based on not just points alone, but it's how many goals a team scores or concedes during their home matches versus their away matches. And it's essentially a ratio that looks at what we'll call home advantage. Essentially the higher the ratio here, the stronger they are at home in multiple facets, not just in points. Now we looked at this this season, As I say Sunderland, 39% they have their home advantage very skewed towards their home record. Brentford not too far behind them on 32%. But then as I say, I looked a little bit more historically across the past 10 seasons actually of who was maybe above 30% because there's not that many. And be interesting to see if people's memories do serve them well with this. That in the 2223 season, Manchester and Nottingham Forest both above 35% in that regard. I think that was the season United finished third. But they typically. I think it's quite interesting that typically it's not the sides who are maybe fighting for the league or in the top four. It's often those who are maybe to Michael's point before maybe a Crystal palace adjacent team who are maybe somewhere in mid table either side. And they do rely significantly more on their home form but nevertheless United being high on that one. The 201819 season, Chelsea were very high. I think that's the season they finished third as well. Arsenal in 201718 had noticeably high ones. So that kind of goes akin to the point I was making in terms of Chelsea and Arsenal. But going a little bit further back, I think it's interesting to see which sides who are fighting relegation as much as anything do have a bit of a skew. So Hull City in 201617 had the highest of any side with a home advantage of 33%. They only had an average of 0.32 points per game away from home. That's the season they got relegated. Everton and Burnley not too far. Newcastle in 2015 16, they also got relegated that year, but they had the strongest home advantage that year as well. So I do think it's. It maybe works a little bit both ways where it's those who are maybe scrapping at the bottom of the table and those who need to really push on and make sure that their home side or home ground, sorry, is a fortress, if you like.

Michael Bailey (7:05)

The thing I found really interesting when I was looking through some of this stuff, Liam, is Jose Mourinho's home record as the longest unbeaten run of matches played at home by a football manager? Nine years that Jose Mourinho was unbeaten at home that spanned Porto, Chelsea, Inter, Milan and Real Madrid from 2002 to 2011. I mean, nuts that.

Producer Mike (7:30)

I think so. I think at the same time a lot of clubs now would kind of be a bit, not necessarily uncomfortable, but just prefer to not maybe go in with a Mourinho style approach. And maybe that's part of the reason why we've seen kind of some changes within that. I think that something has to be a bit kind of compounding within it where I feel like we see this now, maybe more so with teams going to Arsenal than even against Liverpool where reputations kind of start to develop. And I think there's a huge psychological element that impacts on the tactics where the more you start to lose or drop points at home, the more teams think they can go there and get a result and game plans will, you know, slowly start to change. There's no doubt that teams three, four years ago might have gone to Arsenal and you know, plans to be a bit more attacking, have a bit more of the ball, take more risks, press high. But now you see the data in teams overwhelmingly just sit deep against Arsenal. I think the, the aim when any team now goes to the Emirates is to not conced, you know, that you do well to score once against Arsenal, you do really well to score twice. No one scored, I think three goals against them for two calendar years now. Luton Town were the last team to score three goals against them and you know, they're a long way off being a Premier League team again now. It's a great stat. I'm always reminded of it by Duncan Alexander, our resident Arsenal man. But I think home field advantage as an entire concept is interesting within football because from some of the research that I've looked at, and it obviously depends what sports you compare and when, but it actually tends to be a bit more of a thing of teams winning more proportionately more at home than another invasion or team sports often compared to obviously a lot of the American ones. In terms of ice hockey, basketball, I don't necessarily think I have a good explanation for that. I don't know if it's necessarily sometimes a number of players on the pitch obviously being such a low scoring sport as well perhaps compared to American football, but it doesn't feel like at least in the UK compared to, if you think about the US where especially if something like American football, really different kind of conditions depending on where you go in the country, even more kind of travel time, the UK is fairly quick to get around in comparison and a lot more temperate. So I don't necessarily have great explanations for that and I suppose if there were clear explanations for it, it would probably been solved by coaches a long time ago and we wouldn't be sat here having this discussion.

Mark Carey (9:25)

True. I think we obviously we can unpack it from a football perspective. At the risk of being naive to American sports, my experience of being in America and watching Sport was in summer last summer at the Club World cup, and granted, it was rare position whereby not everyone in the stadium was supporting that team per se. They wanted to come to watch a good spectacle. But one thing that I did notice in the stadium was that there was less of a kind of an ebb and flow, that if you closed your eyes and heard the crowd noise, you wouldn't entirely know kind of where the ball was or whether it was kind of approaching the final third of which in the Premier League or typically in football, you hear the crowd noise rise when there's a good opportunity or a goal about to be scored, which we'll come onto. I think crowd noise is a huge factor within sort of home advantage in football. And I don't know whether maybe there's just a slight absence of that or maybe less of that in American sports for multiple reasons that might play into that and maybe maybe that effect dampens, I don't know.

Michael Cox (10:21)

Well, I'd say even Europe, it varies. Yeah, I mean, I think in the Bundesliga you just kind of have a, like constant chanting and chanting that kind of continues through a team conceding a goal, which again, I find somewhat unfamiliar. And I think it's the same in other sports. I mean, I think in cricket, if you listen to the, you know, an English test match, when there's a boundary, you hear a kind of wave of noise, whereas if you watch a match from India, for example, again, it's more of a kind of constant background noise. So, yeah, I, I, I, I think you're right. It varies. It varies from country to country. But even within Europe, and probably between clubs within countries, I think it varies as well.

Michael Bailey (10:58)

Love the fact we've got a mention of cricket in also, I mean, the NFL is interesting because home crowds will really dial up the noise and they can really disrupt the away visiting team in terms of them actually being able to get there, the quarterback getting his instructions out of any kind of play. So I'd be interested in that, but we'll save that one for another day. But talking about fan noise especially, a lot of complex emotions of course remain around the COVID pandemic period in football, but it did prove a good test case in terms of home advantage because fans weren't allowed to attend matches, certainly in big numbers for a good period. My mind immediately goes to covering Norwich City as it would for the 2020, 21 season and they'd been relegated from the Premier League after Project Restart. They lost all nine games that finished that season and scored only one goal following season, back in the championship club record 97 points, 10 points ahead of Brentford, who went up via the playoffs. And Norwich were the first team in second division history to win 15 away games. They'd never had an away record like it, really. And of course that was because there were no fans in the grounds, so surely it was a lot easier. I mean, what. What did it teach us that period, Mark, in terms of fan impact?

Mark Carey (12:15)

Yeah, I mean, it only went to show just how much the home advantage does exist, really. There weren't too many occasions where you could have that kind of dissociable comparison with and without fans in kind of elite level sport. To your point, really, I think I'm pretty certain in saying that it was the only season in the Premier League era, at least, where the home advantage had essentially disappeared and the only season.

Michael Cox (12:35)

Of any division in football league history.

Mark Carey (12:37)

Is that right?

Michael Cox (12:37)

So that's 500 league campaigns you're talking. There's about 130 years of four divisions for most of that. So, yeah, the only one from about 500, yeah.

Mark Carey (12:46)

Which, yeah, is remarkable. Goes to sort of show just how much that effect does typically occur. I think there's so many factors as to why it is, and I'm sure we'll break them down. But as much as anything, I think the intensity did drop out of a lot of games and all of the stuff that comes with that, which, again, we'll speak about, meant that it was kind of a bit more of quite literally a level playing field in that regard. And there has been some interesting academic research on this. As I say, it was an opportunity to have that sort of dissociable effect and try and, yeah, analyse it in a bit more of an objective way. And there was an interesting study from a research lab in Italy that looked at first and second divisions across the top four countries in UEFA rankings. They looked at over 800 matches behind closed doors and their analysis basically showed that there was a significant reduction in home advantage. And they said that that was attributed to the impact primarily of crowd noise, which does make sense.

Producer Mike (13:35)

What you guys were saying is really interesting about the kind of the share of the away points. I think it's interesting kind of comparing that to season since then. So actually, 11 of the 20 teams in the pandemic had an equal number or better number of points won away from home than at home. It's been 16 instances of that in four Premier League seasons since. But interestingly, we had nine instances of that last season, including seven of the bottom half Teams as well as Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth who obviously finish in the top half. So again, it was that weird thing of clubs who may be trying to play with these more direct, disruptive styles, more counter attacking football, which I think there's always an expectation of teams at home to dominate the ball, to dominate territory. And that's almost a bit weird because it's kind of regardless of what your strengths are, that even if those are the things you can do really well. No, you can press high or you can sit in a block and counter attack it still. Well, no, we want to dominate the ball and dominate the game because that's how teams tend to win. That's what modern champions ala City Liverpool look like and play like. And I think Liverpool were the case study in that season when they won 10 league games, drew three and lost six. And since then they've lost fewer games, they've lost five games since Anfield. And the classic example I think to this point is that video of Mikel Arteta in All or Nothing, the Amazon prime series following Arsenal where he's playing the you'll never walk alone music in training, which is almost feels a bit mocking. But I guess his whole point of it at the time was knowing from his experience as a player how hard a ground Anfield was to go to, how loud and kind of dominating the noise could be, that he was saying, well, I need to try and get my players prepared for it. I think from memory they lost that game quite heavily, so it didn't actually end up having kind of the desired impact. But I think that goes to show the point of kind of really what.

Michael Bailey (15:09)

We'Re talking about and also how head coaches and managers are aware that there is this thing that you need to kind of condition your players for. It's almost acknowledging its existence, isn't it? And trying to deal with it. I think we've touched quite a bit there on the psychological impact of playing in front of your home crowd and those good scenarios with it, unless there's anything else anyone else wants to throw in. But there is also the element of when the fans turn and what that's like. And I guess at this point we could probably ask Wayne Rooney, nice to.

Producer Mike (15:37)

See you hold the fans boon.

Michael Cox (15:38)

Ya.

Michael Bailey (15:39)

That was after the goalless draw for England with Algeria at the 2010 World cup in South Africa. So not at home or away, but maybe a note there on your own fans and how they're behaving. I mean real Madrid, they, their fans regularly boom, whistle their own team, get their white Handkerchiefs out, Michael.

Michael Cox (15:59)

Yeah, I think there is an element of that at certain grounds. I always think of that with St. James's Park. Like I think when Newcastle playing well it's maybe the most intimidating ground to go to in the Premier League or up there. But I remember a few years ago when they weren't playing well, if they did concede an early goal, the atmosphere would very quickly go really poisonous and it did feel quite difficult for the home team to perform under those circumstances. But yeah, in general I think it's more of a, more of a positive than a negative and that's borne out by results going back well, best part of 150 years.

Mark Carey (16:31)

I think this is really interesting from a psychological perspective. It very much speaks to the. The sort of stuff that I used to look into in a former life and there's this similarly loads of academic research on this as well. I think one, one interesting thing on this is the effect of, of the home crowd in regard to what's called the audience effect, which is a phenomenon that comes from social psychology primarily in sort of typical life as well. It's based on the idea that behavior can change when an individual knows they're being watched essentially. And this can lead to either social facilitation, I. E Positive or social inhibition, I. E. Negative. But I think it's interest sporting context as well. So a crowd can lead to increased motivation energy from a psychological perspective. From a physiological perspective it can lead to increased levels of adrenaline or cortisol that can have again a positive effect and can improve performance but depending on the context to Michael's point as well that you know, the, the atmosphere can turn negative and that can lead to greater stress and anxiety if interpreted in a negative way. And that can then lead to. To errors. And when you are, when you have the home advantage you obviously then have a larger fan base home ground. Therefore that greater motivation in the positive sense can then lead to more errors on the pitch essentially in a negative sense. So it shows that that negativity in the crowd when it is maybe the prevailing sound for whatever reason can transmit onto the pitch. And it's again something that's said anecdotally and it's maybe a bit of a cliche but you can have a tangible effect from the stands onto the performance on the pitch. And yeah, I do think that's interesting to speak about because the players themselves aren't different whether they play home or away but the, the psychological element to it in, in elite level sport is, is hugely interesting.

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Michael Bailey (19:47)

There was a second part to Robbie's email in regards to tactics and style between home and away. Robbie wrote, it's interesting that they couldn't get away with playing like this at home. Is something said regularly. Which teams do get away with playing like an away team at home? Why do they do it? And why should it not be acceptable to play in the best way to win if that means defending in a boring way? Michael well, it's a tough question to.

Michael Cox (20:17)

Ask about which teams do get away with playing like an away team at home, but I think it's a fair question in terms of, I mean, why does this all happen? I think one of the interesting things about this is when you have again, it's a neutral venue, obviously, usually a cup final or an international tournament. I almost think we don't put enough emphasis on the fact that essentially both teams are away. Like that is the mentality. And I think that means that it's home games that are artificial. It's the home support that is the artificial thing and forces teams to play in a slightly different way. And I think it's interesting to consider, you know, when this all start, when, when league football started, the original idea there was was that gate receipts were going to be split equally between the home and away team. And eventually that changed. And so the gate receipts were just kept by the home team. And that meant there was. This was a time when your only income was going to be gate receipts. You know, there wasn't sponsorship, there wasn't TV money. So you had to get people in and you had to create entertaining games to attract people and then that would give you your income and then you could get better players. What you did away from home didn't really matter in terms of your income. That was about results. So I think that's, you know, it's an obvious thing to say, but I think probably when football started it was even more of a difference because, you know, the games are all on TV now. They get loads of TV money. It's a slightly separate thing, but it was a real need just to get people in so you. Well, one, so you could exist as a club and two, so you could thrive as a club. And I mean, it's a slightly different issue. But I do find it quite interesting the way that different clubs prepare for home games because some, some clubs have their players in a hotel. You know, I was listening to a Chelsea women player recently who was saying that she was really annoyed because Chelsea have started having them in a hotel before games as if it's an away game, supposedly, because that way the players have better food the night before the game and prepare better and get to bed at a good time, et cetera. But that's almost making it into an away game if you are literally physically away from home the night before home game. So I find that quite. I mean, traditionally it was a thing in Italy, you know, they basically just put them in isolation for a couple of days before. Again, we don't do it anymore. But I've always found that concept quite interesting.

Michael Bailey (22:23)

I love that point about the home games being the artificial ones. I mean, when Robbie says which teams get away with it, I kind of feel, Mark, like it's a difficult question to answer because it's not necessarily about the teams, but about the expectation and where the club is at. So again, I know clubs who. The expectations when they're in the Premier League very different in terms of what they can get away with at home and then in the championship, obviously, they basically have the same set of principles in front of the home fans that say Liverpool or Arsenal would have when they're in the Premier League. So there's a lot of that going on. It's the whole character of the club and the expectation in terms of what is then supposed to Happen, I guess that maybe plays into it.

Mark Carey (23:02)

Yeah. I think it speaks to Liam's point before and it was interesting when you said about controlling the game, the. That we do typically associate control in the game with having a lot of possession, but you can either control the game with the ball, you can control the space, basically. You can control the game in and out of possession as well. But there's just a skew towards feeling that it has to be in possession because of the optics around it. But you can very easily still have a dominant performance just without the ball. But the skew once again towards home advantage is that you have to have the dominant degree of the ball and it's just not necessarily the case.

Producer Mike (23:36)

Well, the one group of teams you can answer that question with, right, is always the promoter. Teams that can kind of get away with you can kind of lean into that siege mentality for a while. I think that's always been a thing and in fact, obviously we saw a couple seasons ago, I think teams trying to kind of move away from that away football and trying to play kind of be more like almost a Manchester City or Liverpool at home and say we want to have loads of the ball, be on top of teams, play out kind of control games. Sunderland are a great example this season. Obviously being very prepared to be a bit more defensive, I think be direct as well, kind of in their play and really lean on set pieces. Or obviously still unbeaten at home, which is a. A really, really impressive record. I think that's the longest a promoted team's been unbeaten at home into a season for quite a long time now. But you can even look at a team like Forest is an interesting case study of that and maybe even palace to an extent now as well, where you have success playing a really clear style, it's a bit more defensive, probably not having as much of the ball. And that often works against the bigger, better clubs in the league because when they go into away games, they will still commit and say, we'll press high, we'll come at you, we'll kind of give you that space to play and kind of let you do that. It tends to be if you look at kind of the results that palace or Forest get, I mean, the draw for Forest against Arsenal was a classic example where, you know, their style largely, largely worked. They could kind of nullify Arsenal a lot, but then they kind of get Everton at home and they're putting on putting about 50 crosses into the box and don't really have any kind of solutions or kind of creative output. That way. So it's a really interesting balance. Overall, I think the styles are converging a lot in the league. I had a look at some of the numbers and interestingly, the shot and goal end sequences, in terms of how long they are in either seconds or passes are roughly the same. I thought there might be a bit more disparity there. Interestingly enough, now we've got more fast break shots happening in home games than we do in away games. But you do get a slightly higher percentage of goals from set pieces in away games, which I think kind of passes the eye test. And the one other thing that really stood out was the final third regains go a bit more down for or, sorry, go a bit further down for the away sides. And also when those regains do happen, they're not quite as high up the pitch, so makes more sense. Home teams press more and also press higher up or win it back more often high upfield.

Michael Cox (25:31)

Well, I think a lot of. Lot of bigger teams probably prefer playing away from home in a way stylistically, because I think they often face very deep defenses at home. I don't think that many teams have the tools to unlock that kind of defense. So obviously goes against the numbers, but stylistically, I think sometimes it's easier to set up if the opposition are coming on to you, impressing you a little bit and leaving space in behind and space to attack into. I mean, one thing we should say is that home advantage has decreased over the years. I mean, it's steadily come down decade on decade, particularly in the top flight. I think in the top flight, obviously the differences between the big sides and the small sides are more pronounced than in other leagues. So, you know, Arsenal, for example, are going to be the favorites in the vast majority of away matches in the same way that the leaders of the championship won't be at a mid table championship team, for example. And yeah, there's certain goals. I mean, I really liked a bit of commentary from last season's match today by Jonathan Pearce where he's commentating on a Donyon Marlon goal for Aston Villa away at Southampton. And he calls it a classic away.

Mark Carey (26:33)

Go here into space by Rogers. Looks for Marlon shooting opportunity. 2n.

Liam Thumb (26:40)

Very, very easily done. Very astutely done, very clinically done.

Mark Carey (26:45)

Aston Villa 2N up.

Liam Thumb (26:47)

And the score line now reflects the game.

Mark Carey (26:49)

The Southampton resistance is broken. Too much space in there. Marlon just pulled off his marker to find an extra yard and buried the shot. Lovely football by Aston Villa.

Liam Thumb (27:02)

Rogers with the run, the caress pass shot across the goalkeeper.

Mark Carey (27:06)

Who was beaten by power.

Producer Mike (27:08)

Classic way goal that 2 nil to Aston Villa.

Liam Thumb (27:11)

Fully deserved.

Michael Cox (27:12)

And even though it's not a kind of real, it's not a counterattack. It's not like they don't break from their own box. The opposition didn't have possession, but there's just space. There's space for them to work the ball between the lines. There's space for Marlin in the channel. The shot across the goalkeeper into the corner. I think it's quite an interesting observation obviously from Jonathan Bierce who's commentated on matches for probably about 50 years. So he's seen a few, you know, his fair share of away goals and I quite liked. There's just something about that goal that does feel like an away goal. Even though it's a little bit difficult to put your finger on precisely what it is. There is a difference of playing at home and playing away.

Michael Bailey (27:48)

Before we get on with the show, we want to hear from you. We're asking you to fill out a quick survey about you and your podcast habits by going to theathletic.com survey26. Three lucky entries will win $100 or 100 pounds worth of Amazon vouchers too. So whether you're a long time listener or a new one, we would love your feedback. Go to theathletic.com survey26. That's theathletic.com survey 26. The link is also in our episode description. Thank you. Let's have a chat about pitches. What are the benefits of playing on your home pitch when you're used to compared to being on the road, especially in cup competitions?

Michael Cox (28:33)

Yeah, I think this is quite a good week to be talking about this because Manchester City have lost 31 away to Bodo Glimt. And of course one of the things about playing well most Norwegian sides, I think there's only two that have a grass pitch but you're playing on an artificial surface. I think sometimes we can put too much emphasis on that. I mean top level footballers are used to play on artificial surfaces at various points in their career. But even so it is different to I think probably every single other game Manchester City will play on this season. And there is a difference, grass pitches and artificial pitches. I mean I watch football at a very low level in England where it's probably 50 50. And I remember Martin Tyler who most people know is a Sky Sports commentator but has also been a coach and assistant manager at non league level for, for probably 10, 15 years. He thinks there's such a difference and causes Some players kind of physical problems playing on artificial surfaces, that he thinks they should be separate leagues for grass and artificial pitches. Now, I mean, I wouldn't go that far, but that is someone speaking with experience of the game at that level and I think underlines the extent to which it is a very different game. There has been chat, I think more so in the last 10 years, about the length of grass. I think particularly when Guardiola was at Barcelona, seemed to be a real issue that some away matches were played with very long grass. I think there should be regulations for that. I don't think the regulations should be that it has to be a uniform length. I think to a certain extent, different playing surfaces is what makes gives home advantage. And I think that is interesting. I think heterogeneity between matches is really key. You know, you look at other sports, I'm not a big tennis fan, for example, but the fact that you have four slams played on three completely different surfaces, that favors different players, that means players have to adjust, I think, is something that really brings a lot of interest to that sport. And there's obviously the classic stories about managers kind of trying to manipulate playing surfaces. So John Beck famously used to keep the grass long near the corner flag so his team could play diagonal balls and the balls would hold up near the. Near the corners of the pitches. Tony Pulis Stoke was a big fan of getting his players to train on the pitch the day before the game just to churn it up so opposition sides couldn't pass the ball properly. And maybe most famously, Graham Souness bringing the touchlines in for a European game when he was in charge of Rangers because the opposition had two very good wingers, which doesn't really happen anymore. But I do think that these things make make football fun. I don't think every pitch should be the same. I think in a way, I think that's one of the weaknesses of football. I think football compared to other sports, football's great. But, you know, if you're a golf fan or something and you're like, well, this is a certain course, it favors this player, or certain Formula One tracks favor different cars. I think it's the whole fun of it. So I don't want every football pitch to be ident. I think within reason, if you can have some differences, that adds to the fun.

Michael Bailey (31:21)

The other thing I wanted to get from you, Michael, actually, you've got a great anecdote about Highbury. I think that maybe just emphasizes what it's like for players when they're Playing at home.

Michael Cox (31:29)

Yeah. I remember reading in the Arsenal program a couple of years ago, an interview with Lee Dixon, and he was saying that he was so familiar with Highbury that he used to take a lot of his positioning from certain points in the stadium. And at one point he said he knew that if Arsenal had a goal kick and David Simon had the ball, then he would position himself by a specific advertising hoarding, put himself next to the be on Barclays on that advertising hoarding, which presumably wouldn't be doable these days with digital advertising hoardings, because they'd be scrolling up and down the pitch. So he'd really be struggling with that. But nevertheless, I think the concept makes sense. I think I remember Thierry Henry saying something similar as well.

Mark Carey (32:04)

I have that quote. I have it ready. I was going to say as well, it's a shame that Lee Dixon wasn't standing next to electrical company Dixon's, of which case that would have been perfect had he been able to. But I don't. Yeah, I've dug out that exact quote. He said, Thierry said, I felt so confident when I was playing at Hybrid because I knew where I was. Your memory pictures it all the time. So he spoke about the Fabian Barthes, or rather the Man United game where he scored the goal against Fabian Barthes in 2000. He said, I knew where I was. It was my stadium. I knew that if that stadium is there, the goal is there. Although you don't even realize it, your brain does know exactly where you are. That's why you train. And repetition creates habits. So in that stadium all the time, I knew exactly where I was, was every single time on the field when I was at Highbury. So there must be something about Highbury.

Michael Cox (32:44)

Maybe I've experienced it just playing like school matches. Do you know what I mean? Like, you go away from home and I think probably especially where you, you know, obviously not playing with stands with a stadium, and sometimes you just can't really tell where the boundary of the pitch is. But if you're playing on a pitch you're familiar with, you do kind of know it. I do think it's a big thing.

Mark Carey (33:06)

Foreign.

Liam Thumb (33:10)

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Mark Carey (34:21)

Oh, right.

Liam Thumb (34:22)

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Michael Cox (34:28)

Hank.

Liam Thumb (34:28)

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Michael Cox (34:33)

Too easy.

Liam Thumb (34:34)

Think something's up? You tell me. They got thousands of options, found a great car at a great price and it got delivered the next day. It sounds like Carvana just makes it easy to buy your car, Hank. Yeah, you're right. Case closed. Buy your car today.

Michael Bailey (34:51)

Today on Carvana.

Liam Thumb (34:54)

Delivery fees may apply.

Michael Bailey (35:05)

Everton are struggling, having moved to a new stadium. I mean, that's not a new idea. It's something that gets thrown at any club really that moves into a new stadium. And I guess in those situations, Liam, they're, they're kind of dealing with being an away team for a period until they do have that, that familiarity with the ground. But I mean, I wonder how long it takes to really get that. You think after a few games you'd kind of be there, you'd be better off than the teams rocking up for the first time.

Producer Mike (35:31)

That's probably fair. I mean, it's funny because they started really well, right? They went quite a few games I think without losing there, then have struggled a bit more in recent weeks, which maybe that's a thing with having Moyes as a coach now. Someone that maybe isn't always kind of got loads of layers on a tactical side but is quite good at kind of galvanizing a group group. I think it's tricky because there's not a huge number of obviously case studies of this. We've got West Ham and Tottenham as well in recent seasons who in fairness them have gone to new stadiums and then become, you know, European teams and European champions. So I think it's very easy to paint that as clubs going from kind of smaller, more cramped stadiums where it feels like the crowd's really on top of the. Really on top of the pitch. That I think makes it quite an uncomfortable environment for away teams to much bigger stadium. Sure, that can make more noise as more people can be there, but I think with them being kind of more spacious kind of bowl like stadiums, I think the atmosphere is. It doesn't always kind of work in as cohesive a manner because people are just kind of more spread out. And that's obviously then without. I mean, we're a tactics bot, so we don't need to go too far into it. But kind of the way that ticket prices have changed, I think the demographic of people going is changing slightly. It's maybe it's a more international and there's a broader kind of football tourism industry now. And look, that's great. People should continue to do that. But that probably would also impact home field advantage. If you haven't always got fans that want to go and scream and boo at someone as they're going to take a corner that you know, is probably slightly pantomime in a way. Yeah, I definitely think has a. Has an impact impact.

Michael Cox (36:49)

One of my favorite blog posts about football, and I'm going back to 2012 here, which is a long time ago, probably the golden era of football blogging. And it's by a guy called Mark Taylor, whose blog was called the Power of Goals. And he looked at the 27 teams to have moved stadium between 1990 and 2012 when this was written. And he found that that in the first year of a new ground, home advantage for those teams was only 88% of what it should be. If you take home advantage across all the leagues. So it was 88% in the first season, 92% in the second season and 95% in the third season. So it takes a while to kind of get that home advantage. That in itself is kind of interesting, but maybe what you would expect, the most interesting thing was that in the last year of the old ground, the home advantage rose to 122% of what it should be. And now it's a relatively small sample size, it's 27 teams. But I do find that really interesting because the other numbers are exactly what you expect. So three years before the move, 100% home advantage, then it really rockets up to 122. And I remember Tottenham in their last year at White Hart Lane had a fantastic home record. I think they won 17 or 18 games and maybe, you know, drew one or two. And that obviously isn't including this because it's five years after this when this was written. But yeah, if you want to read it, it's called the Power of Goals, the blog and the post is called Home Sweet home. So, yeah, 13 years on, but I still remember that very fondly. It's a great article.

Michael Bailey (38:21)

We do a very good job of not talking about referees much on this podcast. We don't really need to, but I guess we do have to mention it here, don't we? Mark, is there an unconscious bias at home with referees?

Mark Carey (38:33)

Yeah, I think this is a really important part of the discussion. It might be a slightly contentious one, but I do think it is crucial and there is plenty of evidence, academic research, to suggest that the home crowd does influence the use of yellow and red cards. It influences the awarding of fouls and it can influence the duration of injury time, which are all factors that play into again the ebb and flow of the game. And there's a really interesting review paper led by some researchers at the University of Northumbria up in Newcastle. I'm happy to link that in the description notes, but essentially looks at the influence of social pressure towards referees among the home crowd and the fact that referees do generally issue fewer cards to the home team. In fact, this was a separate study that was part of the review, but one study did find that away teams received 25% more yellow cards than the home teams. And this was looking at Champions League and Europa League games, but also that they award more penalties and longer injury time when the home team specifically is behind, which are all things that I'm sure the referees are not intending to do. But there is that influence, that effect to it. And they said in the review that this bias is attributed to the presence of fans and simply that the referee bias disappears when the matches are played behind closed doors. And there are some studies as well that have looked at referees use, how much the referees use the crowd reaction, so crowd noise as cues for their decision. And this is what I mean about being unconscious. They're not looking to look out at the crowd and think, do we all think that's a foul? Yep, okay, that's fine. It just filters into a referee psyche at the time. And they also looked at the degree of anxiety levels in referees and I thought it was really interesting how they said that the anxiety in the referee interacting with the social pressure led to this kind of effect and compared that with those who are feeling more or less anxious in terms of the decision making. I also think it's interesting when we speak about VAR being introduced and the home advantage in recent years having been decreased, as Michael said, that the introduction of VAR among referees who are separate from the atmosphere of the stadium are able to actually make a bit more calculated decisions and soften that effect. So, long story short, I think that it shows that the crowd can significantly contribute to the dynamics and the outcomes of the game, but also towards the referee. The final, very quick thing, because I know that I've gone on a bit about research there, but I think this is really interesting as well. Not just the referees, but also the coaches, which we haven't spoken about too much here, but there's other experimental studies that looked at the influence of playing at home with coaches, head coaches, managers, etc. And they found that playing at home, as you would expect, head coaches are more likely to set more challenging targets and choose more aggressive playing tactics, essentially, and that's sort of irrespective of the quality of said team. So they're more likely to play more offensive attacking players and they tend to make more offensive, aggressive substitutes as well. And basically said that they're less satisfied with a draw at half time based on this experimental study. So it just shows that you do have a higher expectation when you're at home and there's so many factors hopefully sort of tying this up in a nice neat bow. So many factors at play that can sort of feed into this home advantage.

Michael Bailey (41:44)

Well, that is all we have time for. I really enjoyed that. A huge thank you to Michael, Liam, Mark and producer Mike, as well as to you all for listening and getting in touch. If you want to inspire an episode like Robbie did today, send us your thoughts in an email to tacticspod@theathletic.com we'll see you again very soon. And in the meantime, enjoy the football.

Liam Thumb (42:05)

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