Podcast Summary: The Athletic FC Podcast

Episode: No Sweet Home: Is 'Home Advantage' Fading?
Host: Michael Bailey (The Athletic)
Date: January 25, 2026
Guests: Liam Thumb, Michael Cox, Mark Carey, Producer Mike

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the changing landscape of 'home advantage' in football. Inspired by listener Robbie, the panel investigates whether playing at home retains its historic benefits or whether modern factors—from empty stadiums in the pandemic to bigger, more neutral-feeling new stadiums—have eroded this edge. The discussion blends stats, psychological insights, and vivid anecdotes, examining why some teams struggle at home, why "away tactics" at home are taboo, and how fans, referees, and even the pitch itself all shape the elusive "home field advantage".

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current State of Home Advantage

• Listener Question: Spurs and Everton's struggles at home sparked the discussion—why do some teams perform worse at home these days?
• Stat Deep Dive ([02:44]):
  • Michael Cox: "Spurs have won only 33% of their points at home this season—a dismal record."
  • The Premier League's lowest recent home points percentage was Ipswich (2024–25), with only 32% of points at home.
  • Historical context: Crystal Palace has repeatedly struggled at home, perhaps because their counter-attacking style suits playing away.

2. Who's Strongest (and Weakest) at Home? ([04:25])

• Mark Carey analyzes "home advantage ratings," measuring not just points, but goal performance home vs. away.
  • Sunderland and Brentford are outliers with strong home records this season.
  • Teams with big home advantages are often mid-table sides or relegation battlers (e.g., Hull City, Newcastle 2015–16).
  • It's not always top clubs—sometimes survival relies on fortress-like home form.

3. The Psychology of Home and Away ([07:05], [15:37])

• Mourinho's Record: Unbeaten at home as a manager for nine years, spanning four clubs.
• Producer Mike: "[Home advantage is] a huge psychological element... Teams develop a reputation and plans adapt defensively or offensively around that."
• Negative home atmospheres can quickly turn toxic, notably at clubs like Newcastle when things go wrong ([15:59]).
• Mark Carey: The "audience effect" can boost or inhibit players—being watched can be a blessing or a curse depending on fan mood ([16:31]).

4. Fans and the COVID Test Case ([10:58], [12:15])

• The pandemic provided a natural experiment: without crowds, home advantage nearly vanished.
  • Michael Cox: "The 2020–21 season was the only one in over 500 Football League campaigns where home advantage disappeared" ([12:37]).
• Academic studies confirm significantly reduced home advantage with no fans, attributing this mainly to lost crowd noise and psychological boost.

5. Tactical Expectations: Why "Away Tactics" Are Taboo at Home ([19:47], [20:17], [22:23])

• Teams are often expected to dominate at home, regardless of their actual strengths.
• Michael Cox: Describes historical roots: "You had to get people in [the stadium]... it was your only income. That pressure lingers."
• Promoted or lower-tier clubs can sometimes "get away with" defensive home setups, leveraging siege mentality or pragmatic styles ([23:36]).
• Mark Carey notes that true match control can be achieved either with possession or via space, but optics and fan expectations skew home tactics toward possession.

6. How Styles Are Converging ([23:36])

• Statistical analysis finds that sequence lengths for shots or goals are now similar home and away, but:
  • More fast break shots happen at home.
  • More set-piece goals are scored by away teams.

7. The Pitch Factors ([28:33])

• Special Surfaces: Playing on artificial turf (e.g., in Norway) poses unique challenges.
  • Managers sometimes manipulate pitch conditions (grass length, width) to suit their own style.
• Familiarity Matters:
  • Anecdotes: Lee Dixon and Thierry Henry both said their precise spatial awareness at Highbury gave them an edge ([31:29]).

8. Moving Stadiums & Losing 'Home' ([35:05])

• Teams moving to new grounds often perform worse at home for several years.
  • Michael Cox: "Home advantage for new stadium teams is just 88% of normal in year one, rising to 95% by year three... But in the last year of the old ground, it's 122%!” ([36:49])

9. Crowd Impact on Referees and Coaches ([38:21])

• Unconscious Referee Bias:
  • Referees issue 25% more yellow cards to away teams; more penalties and injury time favor the home side ([38:33]).
  • This bias vanishes in empty (COVID-era) stadiums; VAR may have softened the effect.
• Home Coaches: Studies show coaches set bolder, more aggressive strategies at home—even with weaker teams—reflecting higher expectations.

Memorable Quotes

• Michael Cox ([04:19]): "Crystal Palace, in general, have just been a side set up to play counter-attacking football. They're not very good at breaking down deep defences... usually more suited to playing away from home."
• Michael Bailey ([07:05]): "Jose Mourinho's home record: nine years unbeaten at home across four clubs. Nuts, that."
• Mark Carey ([12:46]): "[The pandemic season] was the only one in 500 league campaigns where home advantage disappeared."
• Producer Mike ([15:09]): "There's always an expectation of teams at home to dominate the ball, to dominate territory... even if their strengths are better suited elsewhere."
• Michael Cox ([28:37]): "I don't think every pitch should be the same. Differences add to the fun. It's a big part of home advantage."
• Thierry Henry (quoted by Mark Carey) ([32:04]): "I knew where I was... It was my stadium. Your memory pictures it all the time... Repetition creates habits."
• Michael Cox ([36:49]): "Home advantage in a new stadium is only 88% in the first year... but rockets up to 122% in the last year at the old ground."
• Mark Carey ([38:33]): "There's plenty of evidence to suggest the home crowd influences referees—yellow cards, fouls, injury time—all unconsciously skewed to the home team."

Key Timestamps

• 02:44: Spurs' and Palace's poor home record; what it says about their tactics and style.
• 04:25: Statistical breakdown of home advantage across the league and its historical context.
• 07:05: Mourinho’s incredible home record and changing approaches to home tactics.
• 12:15: The COVID pandemic as a "natural experiment" into home advantage.
• 15:09: Player psychology—expectations and pressures of playing before home fans.
• 19:47: Why some teams get "accepted" for playing defensive/away-style football at home.
• 23:36: Home versus away tactical trends; rising similarities and key statistical differences.
• 28:33: How pitches (surface, condition, familiarity) can affect home advantage.
• 31:29: Anecdotes about player spatial awareness at familiar stadiums (Dixon, Henry).
• 35:05: Why new stadiums reduce home advantage for several seasons.
• 38:33: How crowds influence referees and even head coach tactical choices.

Takeaways

• Home advantage is shrinking, but not gone—crowds, psychology, and club expectations still matter, but COVID showed how quickly it can vanish.
• Tactics, pitch, referee bias, and stadium familiarity all contribute; moving to a new stadium disrupts familiarity for years.
• Even top teams may find away games easier stylistically because opponents open up more.
• Ultimately, home advantage is multi-factorial—tradition, psychology, tactics, logistics, crowd, and refereeing all play a part, but none is as all-powerful as it once was.

Useful for Listeners Who Haven't Tuned In

This summary covers the entire arc of the episode, blending stats, insight, and memorable moments so you can understand both the big football trend—home advantage fading—and the nuances beneath it. You'll come away with new appreciation for why some clubs thrive or stumble at home, how COVID rewrote the rules, and why stadiums new and old mean more than just bricks and mortar.

Have feedback for The Athletic's Tactics Pod? Email tacticspod@theathletic.com to inspire a future episode!