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- [00:00]
Schwab Advertiser
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- [00:33]
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- [00:38]
Tim Spears
they matter even more.
- [00:40]
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- [01:48]
Matt Davis Adams
The Athletic FC welcome to the preview from the Athletic fc. It's the show where we get you set for the weekend's football. This week we're looking ahead to the Carabao cup final. It's Arsenal vs Manchester City. And on board today we've got two preview stalwarts. Hello Tim Spears.
- [02:11]
Tim Spears
Hello. How are you Matt?
- [02:13]
Matt Davis Adams
Really good, thank you. Yes, very good indeed. Kerris Jones is back with us too. Poor Kerris. You have to do far too many podcasts for me these days, but hopefully
- [02:20]
Kerris Jones
you're in a better sort of mood than usual today. Matt, Those messages being dropped into the Chelsea Pod Group chat after a Nottingham Forest result which doesn't normally happen.
- [02:31]
Matt Davis Adams
It surely does not. But yes, I'll do all I Can to crowbar in some chat about the wonderful victory for Forest. Yeah, Europa League quarterfinals. Looking forward to those very much indeed. Later, we'll get into some Premier League action taking place this weekend because there's some big games in that. But first, let's get to our feature presentation. And it is the two sides battling it out for the Premier League title, going head to head in the Carabao Cup Final on Sunday. Mikel's men lead PEP's Pepys by nine points in the League. They played an extra game. Tim, how big is this one psychologically? Both sides going for the Premier League title? And how diminished is the League cup, given we're talking about the impact on the title race before the prospect of winning an actual trophy.
- [03:13]
Tim Spears
Good point, Matt. Yeah, primarily this is a trophy and, you know, an important one. Arsenal have won one trophy since 2017. That's far too long for a club of their stature. And they've only ever won two EFL Cups, which, again, is pretty hard to believe. Last one in 1993. And then, you know, for City, you know, their drought has been pretty long by their standards. Didn't win a trophy last year, potentially just sort of this and the FA cup within their grasp this, this season at the moment. It does. It does have a bearing, psychologically, probably less from a sort of a City point of view. I think we saw against Real Madrid that they're very much, you know, a developing, I guess, transitional sort of team. But from an Arsenal point of view, it feels like their time is now, doesn't it? And they've got to start delivering. It's now or never. I mean, bloody art. If they don't win a trophy this year, then they will never win a trophy. It is now or never. So I guess. And it has to mean something for the future, and it has in the past, the EFL cup has been the start of sort of big trophy hauls, if you remember. Chelsea under Mourinho, I think, was their first trophy was the EFL Cup. Guardiola's first trophy with City was the EFL Cup. And obviously those sort of, you know, dynasties, if you want, would probably have happened anyway, but it's the sign of champions, of winners. And getting over the line has proved very difficult for Arsenal in recent years. So if they lose here, then, yeah, we'll all be accusing them of mental disintegration, you know, no matter how the game plays out. So, yeah, psychologically, definitely important.
- [04:41]
Matt Davis Adams
What do you reckon, Karis? I mean, this was Pep's pot for a While wasn't it what, he won it four years in a row. But as Tim says, Arteta really needs to start putting some trophies in Arsenal's cabinet. Does it matter more to one side than the other?
- [04:55]
Kerris Jones
I think it's for Arsenal. It's a chance for them to, as Tim said, at least kind of numerically equal their most successful season under Arteta in terms of. Of silverware. It sets them up with good momentum going into the very last stage of the season. So. So from that point of view, psychologically, it's really important to them. And I do certainly think if. If they lose, then the questions over the kind of title race get raised again. But I would actually probably argue that this weekend is more important for City in terms of their chance of silverware this season. You know, they have, on paper a tougher quarter final in the FA cup against Liverpool. The Premier League title race is. Is broadly out of their hands. I'm not saying it's. It's done and dusted, but I think we can certainly call Arsenal the favorites for it. They're out of the Champions League. This is City's probably best chance of silverware this season. I think it's. It's probably fair to say that it's a huge one psychologically for Arsenal, but ultimately, come the end of the season, if they do lift the Premier League, as it looks as though they will, nobody will remember that they lost this final.
- [06:06]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. And as for City, I mean, I guess Gary says a danger that their season peters out if they don't win on Sunday, isn't there knocked out the Champions League in midweek? Bernardo Silva, usually so dependable, but gives away a penalty and gets sent off. I mean, this could have ramifications for them beyond just not winning the trophy in a way that maybe it wouldn't for Arsenal.
- [06:26]
Kerris Jones
Yeah, I mean, the thing is, City are supposed to be kind of finding their. They're supposed to find this, like, unshakable championship gear in the spring, and instead they've ended up with this little wobble where they've had one win in their last five in all competitions. Obviously, that's, you know, that takes into account losses to Real Madrid and so on. A domestic treble, you know, on paper, is technically still in their grasp, but it would be very surprised if it happens just because they. This is the time of year where typically they sort of look completely unshakable and like, they kind of remember who they are and they don't really seem to have remembered who they are at the moment. And if they don't do that on Sunday, then I kind of. You feel as though their season is in danger of ending up being a bit of a something and nothing.
- [07:17]
Matt Davis Adams
What happens with Pep Guardiola then, Tim? Particularly if he doesn't win any trophies this season. Still a year left on his contract, but lots of uncertainty around his future and this week around his wardrobe.
- [07:30]
Tim Spears
Yeah. Where did that come from? No one was expecting that at all. You talk about psychological impacts. Surely the players thought that and was like, what, What? European champions wearing that shirt.
- [07:42]
Kerris Jones
Yeah.
- [07:42]
Tim Spears
I mean, look, it's deja vu from a year ago in terms of sort of Pep's future and where he's going to end up at the end of the season. But, yeah, the Champions League exit. You know, one Champions league win in 10 years for City with six league titles, it doesn't quite fit. Really interesting sort of comments from Guardiola in the week about the Champions League. I'm paraphrasing here, but it was kind of like they're not everything for City. You know, the Champions League isn't. Isn't. Doesn't mean as much perhaps, as it should do. Like, failure is accepted more in the Champions League than it would be for Real Madrid, for example. And obviously, you know, it's part of Real Madrid's DNA, that sort of yearning to win the Champions League, but it's almost been the sort of opposite for City. You know, they've struggled to sell out Champions League matches in the past. I think they still probably boo the UEFA anthem. So it's a very sort of different relationship for a fan base. Kind of still getting used to that domestic dominance, really. And, yeah, if it's. If it's Guardiola's last season, if he goes out trophyless for two seasons in a row, which would have been unthinkable, you know, sort of three, four years ago, psychologically, I think that probably does impact his decision as to whether to stay on. Does he really go out on two trophyless seasons, for example? I think that would be a terrible. Be the worst possible way for him to leave Man City. Does he really entertain that? I think he'll probably see the potential in this team and know they're not far off where he wants them to be in terms of the title. Probably more looking at next year rather than this year. But, yeah, if they were to lose on Sunday and then not want to try for the rest of the season, I can't imagine Guardiola leaves on. On those terms.
- [09:16]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, like a sort of fake fergie. Retirement vibes Arsenal wise. Then they swatted aside by a Levy Cusan at the Emirates midweek. Two nil on the night. Eza and Rice with their goals. Sensational goal from Ezra Caris. It feels like Arsenal maybe have found another gear. I mean, we were talking a few weeks, maybe months ago about them stumbling. I'm looking through their results. They didn't exactly stumble, did they? They've lost three of 53 games all season, but. But playing better than they have done
- [09:44]
Kerris Jones
perhaps in recent weeks, those goals midweek, particularly as this was superb. I mean, one of the standouts of the season. I would probably say that the confidence to take a shot on there is fantastic. And I think it speaks to the fact that Arsenal have not let the latest kind of wave of. Are they going to bottle it, shake their confidence after those. Those draws to Brentford and to Wolves? They haven't let that knock them back down the gears. I don't know if it feels to me as though they are necessarily, you know, as though they've found like another level in the last few weeks. It doesn't feel like that to me. It more feels as though this is the point that just as I would expect City to start hitting their best stride, it's the point where you might traditionally have expected Arsenal to start looking a bit shaky. And they haven't. They've not let the kind of individual results that could have derailed their momentum. They haven't let that happen, which is really important. And I think it's really important. Kind of on that same note for them, that if Sunday doesn't go to plan, that they don't allow that to seep into the Premier League. And I think they are probably in a better position to not let it do that than they have been in past years.
- [11:01]
Matt Davis Adams
We've got two Arsenal supporting producers on board today. Tim, can. Can you humour them and maybe make a case for them winning the quadruple?
- [11:10]
Tim Spears
I mean, you can kind of look at each individual trophy and make a case for them winning each one of those four individually. Obviously, they're in the final of the Carabao cup, they've got Southampton away in the FA cup, they're nine points clear in the Premier League, and they've got Sporting in the quarterfinals of the Champions League, which is undoubtedly the easiest draw they could have had out of the sort of heavyweight lineup in the Champions League. So, yeah, you can absolutely make a case for winning each of those trophies individually, but obviously not collectively. They haven't won a trophy. They've won one trophy in nine years for them to then win four in two months. I mean, I do believe in sort of football fairy tales, but that just. I think that's a bit too much of a stretch if they're gonna do it, you know. You want me to humor the producers? I guess they probably need the title wrapped up asap, which means that they can then concentrate on the Champions League and the FA cup, which means they probably need to go to the Etihad and win in a few weeks. The one thing I do sort of like for them is that in between the Champions League quarterfinals, they've got Bournemouth at home. Because obviously, as we've seen in the last week, you want a nice easy fixture in between your two very hard Champions League matches. So in between the sporting games that got Bournemouth at home and in between the semi finals, which is probably Barcelona, if they do get through, they got Fulham at home, which is a nice opportunity again to sort of rest a few players. And I guess the best thing you'd say about Arsenal is their ability to win matches when they're not playing well and this sort of relentless grind. You know, you mentioned three defeats all season, Matt, but yeah, logic just says no, no way. But I could see him winning sort of two or three for sure.
- [12:49]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, I'm sure they'd take it if they won one and it was the League or maybe the Champions League, but we shall see. Next, we're going to get back to Sunday's game. We'll look at personnel and where each team could hurt each other.
- [13:04]
Podcast Producer/Host (Matt or Tommy)
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- [14:24]
Schwab Advertiser
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- [14:58]
Tim Spears
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- [15:33]
Podcast Producer/Host (Matt or Tommy)
This is the Athletic FC podcast proudly
- [15:35]
Matt Davis Adams
sponsored by Betfair right in the last four seasons Eberici ESA has averaged 0.5 goals per game in March, April and May. For contrast in autumn and winter he's on 0.19 goals per game scored. Palace's winner carries in the FA cup final at Wembley against City. Lest we forget last season the man for the big occasion potentially, and a potential winner of the Alan Hardaker Trophy on Sunday.
- [16:03]
Kerris Jones
He's got a great kind of knack for these big games, hasn't he? Especially the ones that are sort of driven by narrative that the North London Derbys this season where he's he's shown up for Arsenal against the club that he almost joined instead of them against their rivals for palace in the FA cup final. And then a time when it looked as though he may be leaving and that would be his kind of farewell gift. And then now he has the chance to upset Manchester City at Wembley again. It definitely feels like it, as though it could be another big afternoon for him.
- [16:41]
Matt Davis Adams
Tim, are you aware of the Alan Hardaker Trophy? It strikes me as.
- [16:44]
Tim Spears
I'm just. Sorry, just googling it.
- [16:47]
Kerris Jones
This is how you know that? I do too many podcasts with Matt because I didn't even kind of flinch at that.
- [16:53]
Tim Spears
Brilliant. Wow. Who knew that?
- [16:55]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. It's one of my favorite quirks about the League Cup Final, of which it has many. But yeah. The man of the Match award is called the Alan Hardaker Trophy. It's named after the old secretary of the Football League who came up with the League Cup. Des Walker was the first ever recipient of it. Yes. That is a way for me to crowbar in the fact that that was the year that Forest beat Oldham in the final. Let's get back to 2026, though. Martin Odegaard could be back in the squad this weekend. He's a very different player, Tim, to Ezzer, isn't he? But good to have alternatives at this stage of the season.
- [17:26]
Tim Spears
Yeah, very different. You're right. I mean, well, he's only got one goal all season. Odegaard, he's really kind of seven assists, I think it is. It's not. It's not all about that for him, obviously. You know, he makes Arsenal tick in sort of deeper, deeper positions, more so than Neze does, but there's no doubting he's been sort of less influential this season. Injuries don't help, but there was a time when if Odegaard was missing a domestic cup final for Arsenal sort of two, three years ago, it would have been disastrous and it would be like, what's the game plan then? How do we win this without him? But, yeah, that's not the case now. Not just because he's dropped down a level in performance. But yeah, Ezra, and obviously Damen and Saka now can play centrally and Madueke being an option really helps. And that's exactly what Arteta wanted and asked for last summer. He said their squad was not big enough or sort of tough enough to cope with the demands of multiple competitions. And this is what's so great about this Arsenal team this season. Is that what he wanted? He was given by the board with the signings they made last summer. And it's all, as it stands on March 20th. It's all working extremely well and to plan. So, yeah, if Odegaard doesn't start on Sunday, and I know there's some doubt about that, it doesn't diminish their prospects of winning the match for me, which is something you would not have said a couple of years ago.
- [18:41]
Matt Davis Adams
What about Max Dalman? Karis, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but he's only 16 years of age. Do you Think there's any chance that he might get a few minutes?
- [18:49]
Kerris Jones
Yeah, a few minutes for sure. I think it depends on. On the game state a bit down is still someone who the talent is undeniably there. The goal for him against Everton, a huge moment and a very memorable moment in his career, I'm sure. And in Arsenal's season, if all ends up going to plan or, well, memorable even if all doesn't go to plan in the Premier League, but one that will be sort of in that BBC title winning montage if they do. Yeah, he's someone who can bring that kind of. I hesitate to say X factor because I hate it, but I can't think of another word for it right now. That technical quality and that unpredictability in moments, perhaps against tired legs. But I don't think even the most kind of away with the fairies fan would suggest that there's any case for him to be starting this game. I think that is still fortunately something where we're keeping or keeping our feet on the ground a little bit, but definitely to see him come off the bench and if he can play a role for Arsenal in a piece of silverware, then that is a really positive thing for their season and for the club as a whole and its trajectory.
- [19:58]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, not expecting a kind of 2007 final. Theo Walcott lining up for Arsenal. Vibe from Max Downman this year on City. Tim miserable defeat for them midweek. They did get a goal from Erling Haaland, though not exactly one for the scrapbook from him. There's no chance that he doesn't start for City on Sunday. I mean, I can barely believe I'm asking the question, but he has been out of form.
- [20:22]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I'm not sure sort of Marmouche does enough to make a compelling case to sort of come in for him. He hasn't quite kicked on as you sort of hoped he would do. I mean, it's not an unusual drop off for Haaland. He does tend to sort of start a season like a steam train and then springtime he's slightly less prolific, but it's a huge drop off. He scored five in 18 this calendar year. Before that, as in sort of August onwards. He scored 38 for club and country from August to the end of December. So to go from 38 in a few months to five in three months is insane, really. So I think you're right to ask the question, Matt. You're not. You're not wrong to query whether he should start, but I think he will. I Mean, I think. And it's Arsenal and the beef factor is high. Xb. Pretty high. Him against Gabriel, you know, I think he scored in his last three against Arsenal, so yeah, he has to start. And I guess from a City point of view, you hope that the mere sight of Gabriel's face in the tunnel just gets him riled up, which you think it probably will do.
- [21:30]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, fair chance of that. I think. So Haaland will probably start Carrick. Mark Gay definitely won't. He's cup tight because he's already played in the competition for Crystal Palace. Who's going to come in for him?
- [21:40]
Kerris Jones
Yes, a massive, massive shock, though that apparently was an injustice though it was, that he would be cup tied. Fortunately, we have all seen sense and stuck with that as it is a rule that no one could claim to be surprised by. But anyway, small rant over on that, I think. I wonder if the fact that Ruben Diaz was. Was withdrawn at half time against Real Madrid is probably potentially a bit of an indicator that he might be going in there. Kusanov is someone who is clearly kind of earning, slash earned Guardiola's trust. But has he faced this sort of occasion before? I'm not. I can't bring to mind whether he's kind of featured in finals like this for them before. He's still a very young player, so I would imagine Diaz kind of being taken off at halftime against Real Madrid would. Would indicate he'll be starting perhaps on the left and then John Stones for that kind of experience coming in on the right. But it's good for Guardiola that he's got three solid options, all of whom have had relatively decent minutes recently to pick from. You know, the fact that Gay wasn't going to be available, that's not like it's an injury that's come up this week. It's not a surprise and it's something that I'm sure they will have extensively planned and prepared for.
- [22:58]
Matt Davis Adams
Interesting selection dilemmas for both. Tim in goal as well, aren't they? Because you generally. Clubs generally play their number twos in this competition. But it's one thing to do that in the first round away to a League One club. It's a different thing to do it in the final. James Trafford and Kepa Aretha Balaga then. I mean, Kepa's got to start just because of his rich League Cup Final heritage, hasn't he?
- [23:20]
Tim Spears
Yeah, it's his competition. He's intrinsically linked with the EFL Cup. Yeah. Maybe they'll name the Alan Hardaker Trophy or rename it to the, to the Kepa Trophy. But yeah, it's a difficult sort of concept to explain to a non football fan that you've got a huge game at Wembley, there's a trophy on offer and neither manager will pick his best goalkeeper for that match. Why does that make any sense? Just because you want to be nice to them. You know, they've sort of deserved it for training hard all year. I'm not a fan of it, to be honest. I mean, if, you know, if James Trafford starts the match and then in the opening 10 minutes he plays out, plays the ball out from the back rather nervously and Gyokares pounces and it's 10 to Arsenal and it's game over. That just becomes a ridiculous thing to have done. I remember on one of the very few occasions my team played in a match of similar stature in an FA cup semi final, they played their backup keeper, who's John Ruddy, and he sort of let the winner under his body in extra time. And I was cursing Nuno's decision not to put Rui Patricio, Portugal's number one European Championship winning goalkeeper, in goal for that match. So yeah, if you've got Donnarumma sat on the bench for a penalty shootout or do you know what I mean, he's much more likely to be a match winning goalkeeper. So I just. I don't get it, Matt. I don't get it. You play your best team, surely that's
- [24:37]
Kerris Jones
also quite an interesting point as well, isn't it? If it is that both teams start their cup goalkeepers and this does go to penalties, would you, Tim, like, would you be bringing Donarim on for the shootout at that point? Would you be bringing Raya on for the shootout?
- [24:53]
Tim Spears
Probably not Raya, I don't know. But yeah, yeah, Donnarumma for sure. I think you'd have to, wouldn't. He's much more likely to, to win than the shootout, I think. Yeah, it's a good question. What would you do?
- [25:03]
Kerris Jones
I think, yeah, it's a funny one because in a way it's exactly the same logic as second choice goalkeepers starting the game in the first place. You know, how far does your trust and your willingness to reward them for what they've done to getting you to that point in the competition? If it extends to starting a final, why would it not extend to a penalty shootout? And the answer there is quite obvious. It's just like it's the argument behind not letting them start the final. Ratcheted up a notch. But yeah, I would be interested to see what Guardiola in particular would do in that situation.
- [25:42]
Matt Davis Adams
Well, Kepa's penalty from the final against Liverpool a couple of years ago that he took in 2022, that landed in my back garden last week, so I'm not sure he'll be up for taking one. But he did. He got brought on in the last minute of stoppage of extra time in the Super cup in 2021, didn't he? When. When Chelsea won that and he. He was the keeper for the penalty shootout. So. Interesting. Yeah, we shall see. Also the possibility of seeing Bukayo Saka take a penalty against Donnarumma at Wembley, as in the final of the Euros. Sorry, that's quite triggering for me. So it might be for you to listen. Who's going to win on Sunday then, Tim? Never mind who's going to play in goal, who's lifting the trophy.
- [26:20]
Tim Spears
I think it feels like a first goal wins match to me, potentially. Some of the matches between these two have not been classics in recent years. EFL cup finals do tend to be quite entertaining, so maybe that balances that out. But I think it's probably a narrow Arsenal win. I think that's the smart prediction.
- [26:39]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay, and we'll wait and see who gets the Alan Hardaker Kerris. What do you reckon?
- [26:43]
Kerris Jones
Yeah, similarly, I think quite often semi finals in this competition are some of the worst games that you will watch all season and then the final kind of throws up some sort of fun quirk that makes it a bit more enjoyable. But yeah, I agree with Tim. Actually, I think that the way I would see this going is probably 2:1 arsenal. So neither team keeps a clean sheet. City give themselves some hope. Maybe it's as a wonder goal. Who knows? Maybe it's a Max Dalman off the bench Wanda strike into the top corner. Or maybe they just score the winner from a set piece and that would be more fun for everyone.
- [27:21]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, it's 4:30 UK time on Sunday for that one. We're going to take a quick break and when we come back, we'll turn our attention to the Premier League.
- [27:29]
Podcast Producer/Host (Matt or Tommy)
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [27:34]
Matt Davis Adams
This is the part of the show where with the help of our partners, Betfair, we show you how you can play in a different league this season. James Mackey's back with us. James, before we get to our main event, let's talk about last week's winner, shall we?
- [27:47]
James Mackey
Yes, let's talk about it. Yeah. There's three winners we've had so far, Matt, this year. Nice short price at 3. 1. Bruno Fernandes. He can't stop assisting at the moment, can he? For him to score or assist btts in the game and Man United to win to carry on their good run. So a 3 to 1 winner and hopefully we can, we can back that up this week.
- [28:04]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, let's hope so. So it's the Carabao Cup Final. We've been talking about it on the pod that we're looking at. What are the. The match odds saying for this one?
- [28:11]
James Mackey
Yeah, huge game Matt, on Sunday in the League cup final. Seeing the first bit of silverware for English clubs and potentially the start the quadruple dream for Arsenal who are the six to five favorites to win the game in the in normal time. And you can see why, having lost just one of the last five meetings with Manchester City at Wembley Stadium. On the flip side, the Gunners have lost more finals than any other side, most recently in 2018 against Manchester City. So contrasting stats there. City of The Outsiders at 7 to 4 but have won eight of their nine League cup finals with only Liverpool win the competition more often. Had to get that in there. The draw in 90 minutes is priced at 158 and you would not be surprised if this went to extra time and penalties, would you? It's going to be a really tight game and three of the last four meetings between the two sides have finished in a draw. So look, the odds are skewed towards Arsenal at the moment, but it's very tight in the market.
- [28:59]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, looks like it'll be a game decided by fine margins or maybe by either side's maverick players and both of those feature in this week's Bet Builder.
- [29:10]
James Mackey
Yeah, they do. Like we said, we're trying to get two out of two this week just picking two players, one from each side that I think could change the game for both. So the bet builder this week is seeing two selections and we'll start with Era Britchie Eze for Arsenal. He scored Crystal Palace's winner against Manchester city in the 2025 FA Cup Final. He could become the third player to score against an opponent in both a League cup and an FA cup final. He has four goals in his last seven games. He's 130 to score any time, Matt. For Arsenal I thought that represented a bit of value. So that can kick off the bet builder but for City. Rain Cherokee. I've been really impressed by him this season. He's been involved in four goals in his four League cup appearances for Manchester City, three goals and one assist. Averaging a goal involvement once every 47 minutes in the competition. He's 21 to 10 to either score or assist in the game. So overall adding those two selections together comes out around a 10 to 1 bet builder. And the beauty of the two score or assist and anytime goal scorer market is that there is a safe sub attached to it. Meaning that if that leg of the bet hasn't won and the player comes off, the player that replaced them carries on that leg of the bet. So fingers crossed we can make it two out of two. Matt.
- [30:15]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, let's hope so. James, appreciate your time, enjoy the weekend's action.
- [30:19]
Podcast Producer/Host (Matt or Tommy)
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betver.
- [30:24]
Matt Davis Adams
Now the race for Champions League football took another turn last weekend. Manchester United moved into pole position after they beat Aston Villa, Liverpool held to a one all draw at Anfield by Spurs and Chelsea lost at home to Newcastle. Keris, you and I were in attendance at Stamford Bridge to see a bad week get even worse for the Blues. Hammered by PSG three nil on the night, eight two on aggregate. They had a great five minutes and then it all went wrong. Do you have a theory as to why they collapsed so spectacularly?
- [30:55]
Kerris Jones
It's funny you should ask Max. I actually wrote a piece about it yesterday. I asked Liam Senior yesterday, sort of do you feel as though there are gaps in how the players are understanding your tactics or do you think it's just execution? He was like, no, it's not tactics, it's moments. And I'm inclined to agree with him. I think the way that PSG play and their qualities in terms of their speed and their ruthlessness are perfectly kind of aligned to Chelsea's weaknesses in terms of how open they look on the counter at times. Kind of what happens when as Mamadou Sar was against Varesghelia or as Wesley Fafana was against Anthony Gordon, when sort of one of their defenders gets isolated against a speedy attacker at the moment, which is happening too often, it's these moments that are costing them. And then you can argue, you know, at what point does that many moments become a link back to the tactical system? And it's a bit of a chicken and egg kind of thing. But yeah, it's the lack of concentration and focus and I think occasionally of understanding exactly what they should be doing in the press. For example, I think the absence of Reece James probably doesn't help that in terms of having that sort of vocal figure instructing teammates on the pitch same With Trevor Chaliba who picked up that injury against PSG and is now, I think we're looking at about six weeks out for him, Rossinha said yesterday. That's. That's a real blow for them. Two of their kind of more senior players who you might sort of turn to for that leadership in making sure everyone is doing their jobs and is concentrating, is picking up runners and so on. It was quite the spectacular collapse against psg. They will not play a team as good as that this season again, which I'm sure will come as a huge relief to them. But the issues it exposed carry over into into the Premier League.
- [32:50]
Matt Davis Adams
Maybe they won't play a team that good a game, but I'm just looking at their upcoming Premier League fixtures. They're at the deck. On Saturday you'll be there with them. Everton obviously not that far away from them in the table and then back to back home games against the two Manchester clubs. They've not left themselves much margin for much more error in the Premier League if they're going to get back into the Champions League next season.
- [33:10]
Kerris Jones
Yeah, they've got a really difficult run in which, which isn't a surprise to them. The fact that they're coming up directly against Manchester United and against Liverpool, two of the team that they're competing for these European spots for is far from ideal. But then again one of probably their best performances and results under Rosenhe was that 41 win against Aston Villa. It's not tending to be the games against direct rivals that you sort of peg as the decisive ones where they are having their decisive mess ups. It's against your Leeds, your Burnley, your Wolves. It's a really sort of odd situation where that concentration maybe I think doesn't seem to be there. The urgency doesn't seem to be there. If I was Rosenheur I would be less worried about making sure my team concentrates against Manchester United and Manchester City because I think they will and more about making sure they concentrate. For instance in sort of the game against Tottenham, against Sunderland, even on the final day of the season. Those are ones right. I feel they could slip up.
- [34:19]
Matt Davis Adams
Tim, what did you make of Enzo Fernandez post match comments following the PSG game? Casting doubt over his Chelsea future. Just what you want from the man who's going to captain you for the rest of the season.
- [34:30]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I was really surprised Matt, to hear those sort of comments from Enzo. Yes, big shock to hear him with signs of sort of disloyalty. Yeah, I mean it's classic. Give me an extra 50k a week kind of chat really. It's been three years since I signed him, which is unbelievable to me. 100 million three years ago now. It doesn't feel like he's been around for three years. But I mean, look, he's an excellent attacking midfielder who's, you know, great at arriving in the box.
- [34:56]
Matt Davis Adams
Excellent.
- [34:57]
Tim Spears
Well, in an attacking sense I think. I think, you know, you can sort of dictate playing that final third when the circumstances are right. Decent goal record this season, but as an all round player, you know, especially off the ball, nowhere near as strong as sort of Chelsea need him to be. I think, look, if he wants out genuinely, then if they can get a decent amount of that money back for him, I would take it. I think Chelsea can do, can do better to be honest, on quite a few fronts.
- [35:22]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. Problem that they got is trying to make a profit on him, I suppose. But that's maybe a question for another day. Elsewhere point ahead of Chelsea, Liverpool, they go to Brighton. Saturday's early kickoff there. Two points then ahead of Liverpool are Villa, they host West Ham. And leading those Champions League chases are Manchester United. They go to Bournemouth on Friday night. It's basically the battle to be the least worst. Is it Kerris or is that a bit harsh on Man United?
- [35:49]
Kerris Jones
I think it's a little bit harsh on Man United. I would rephrase as least slip ups or least upsets. Suffering the least upsets perhaps Manchester United with that win last weekend, they've definitely put themselves in a really strong position and it is feeling increasingly as though it is Chelsea, Aston Villa and Liverpool who are kind of fighting out for two spots between three rather than previously. It felt like we were looking at sort of four teams fighting it out for three spots. That's not to say it's done and dusted for Manchester United by any means, but they've certainly put themselves in a strong position. But again, where these teams are all letting themselves down isn't generally in the games against each other. It's in the games against teams that maybe they would expect to be beating. Which presents some potential for fun over the last few weeks and a very unpredictable end to the season.
- [36:49]
Matt Davis Adams
Maybe a slight advantage Tim for Chelsea now that they're out of Europe and Villa Liverpool are still in it potentially.
- [36:56]
Tim Spears
I guess this whole, the whole kind of everybody slipping up, it just speaks to the flawed nature of these sides, particularly Liverpool and Chelsea and I guess the, the strength and depth of the Premier League this season. But if Villa don't get it, they'll be kicking themselves. You know they were in such a strong position a few weeks ago. I know they've had their injury problems but they're getting most of the team back now. You know we've seen in the past Emery's very good at combining sort of Premier League and European competitions and they've got a really good run on paper. So that Villa's run now is West Ham, Forest, Sunderland, Fulham, spurs and Burnley. That's a really good run. I know that these, some of these teams are fighting for their lives but and then they play Liverpool and City to finish. So yeah I would still back Villas to get back into it. I think they've got a second wind in them somewhere. I tell you what, you know we haven't mentioned Brentford and nobody is talking about Brentford but they would if they'd have won on Monday a 2 nil up at home to a very good Wolves side and they would have been on 47 if they'd won that one point behind Chelsea and we would all be including them in conversation. But we're not. But they still have the potential to to get back into it for sure as the others sort of stumble over themselves for the rest of season.
- [38:03]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, just one win in their last five games for Brenford. Maybe just losing a little bit of steam. All right, when we come back we're going to talk about a seriously super Sunday in the Premier League.
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Tim Spears
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- [40:01]
Matt Davis Adams
And before the Carabao Cup Final, we've got three huge games a time. We're derby kicking things off. Newcastle hosting Sunderland at midday. The Black Cats can leapfrog the Magpies with a win. So it's a big one for the animal kingdom as well as local rivalries. What do you reckon, Tim? Is this the worst possible fixture for Newcastle after the new camp in midweek, or is it the perfect antidote? I mean, I guess we'll know at 2:00'. Clock.
- [40:28]
Tim Spears
Yeah, depending on how they play, we'll rewrite it and frame it in either of those manners, expecting this to sound like a great match but not look like a great match. Like the atmosphere is going to be incredible. But if you remember the reverse fixture, it was a shocker. 11 shots between them, 3 on target. I think it was the lowest combined XG of any Premier League match this season. So I'm not, we're not expecting a classic from a, you know, a purist point of view. And also, I mean, they're almost sort of both at their lowest ebbs of the season. You can make a case for Sunderland and a real rotation. Four points from six out of the FA Cup. Newcastle, I mean, they had that tremendous win at Chelsea last weekend. But you know, any team that's just shipped seven, no matter who the opposition is, they're not going to be in a good moment, as people like to say. So, yeah, it's going to, you know, it's got all the hallmarks of a rowdy one all draw, basically, but completely watchable. You have to see it.
- [41:28]
Matt Davis Adams
I was thinking Karis one nil, Sunderland one red card, nine yellows.
- [41:34]
Kerris Jones
I think nine yellows might be pushing it a little bit, but that's sort of a game. Yeah, I mean, I think that the thing for Newcastle is, I guess looking at, you know, the table in front of me. The Europa League and Conference League are still in their reach, but in terms of competing on the same. They are not anywhere near the same position as they were last season in terms of kind of the race for Champions League. I mean, they're not in it. So the difficulty for them is kind of they won't have a challenge getting up for this game. Right. It's a derby. It's not difficult to rally the troops for that, especially back at St. James's park for the first time in ages. But for the rest of the season, I guess it's whether they can take that kind of pleasure in. In proving everyone wrong about the season being a write off and whether they can kind of find it in themselves to make that progress up towards the European spots. But the danger is that it just ends up drifting. I think the win against Chelsea should really help them avoid that. That was a reminder of what they can do and that they can compete with these top sides. But it is coming far too late for them to be in the conversation for top four. Top five.
- [42:49]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, it looks like it. Newcastle, Sunderland. Noon then. Then at quarter past two, Villa, West Ham and Spurs against Forest. Huge games in the fight for survival. This one. About as must win as it gets for. For Igor Tudor, isn't it, Tim? I mean, they beat Atletico Madrid on the night in midweek. They got a point at Anfield, so he's in a better position than he was this time last week. But first goal feels massive in this one, I think.
- [43:15]
Tim Spears
Yeah, no, yeah, definitely. I mean, football moves quickly, but sheesh. Like, you know, a week ago on this very podcast, we were querying how many hours Igor Tudor had left. Not matches or weeks or the rest of the season. Yeah, and now he's the man to keep them up, apparently. And he hasn't even won a meaningful match yet. You know, they drew last week and then they won, but obviously lost ultimately against Athletica in the week. And then also a week ago, fans were planning mass protests for this match against Forest and now they're going to line the route with flares and they're going to cheer the boys on. I mean, literally, you cannot predict what this sport is going to throw up. Spurs, obviously, much improved performances, arguably should have won Anfield and they looked a lot better in the week. Their desire has returned. God knows where it went, but it's back. Tactically they look better. Four at the back suits them. Injured players returned and all of a sudden you're saying they're strong favorites for this match. But I think what you would say is that the pressure was off at Anfield. It was A free hit. It felt like a free hit. And the pressure was off against Athletico. Again, a free hit. They're three goals down. This is where the pressure really, really lands. But it does feel like they're going to have the crowd with them. I think even if they go 1 nil down to Forest early on, they're going to have the crowd with them and the tide has definitely turned. But having gone to. I went to Citiground last weekend. Matt and Forest were shoddy. I don't really see how they go to spurs and win, but I don't really see how any of the things have happened in the last week. So, yeah, God knows what's going to happen.
- [44:50]
Matt Davis Adams
I think if Vitor Pereira's Forest could play all their games away, but in Europe, they'd probably have quite a good chance. Karis, they marched gloriously into the quarter finals of the Europa League on Thursday, in no way helped by the fact that Midgetland missed all their penalties in the shootout. I mean, should give them a big boost. In all seriousness, shouldn't it? They made nine changes for the game. They did bring some. Some of the usual big hitters on on the hour mark. So minutes in legs maybe, but the fact they got through that tie, it can only be a good thing, can't it? Please tell me it can only be a good thing.
- [45:23]
Kerris Jones
I was gonna say phrased incredibly neutrally. March, gloriously hot is a turn of phrase that no one else can get away with. The way that the minutes have been handled, I guess there will be some tiredness, but hopefully for them, the number of changes that were made will kind of mitigate for that. And it was a brave thing to do in a really big game, but has paid off. Yeah, I mean, a lot of this really depends on the first goal. I mean, as Tim sort of mentioned the thing from the fans about let's, you know, let's really get behind the team. We're really going to do it this time. We're really going to get behind them. We're really going to support them. That's great. That's the right idea. But I would be amazed to see how long it lasts. If forests are 1 nil up inside 15 minutes, I think that that stadium has shown its capacity to turn toxic incredibly quickly and it can just become this cauldron in the worst way. You are. Rather than cooking the opposition in your cauldron, you are in there yourself. So, yeah, spurs certainly go into it as favorites, but again, as Tim said, like these past two results, they've been free hits, they've been in completely depressurized situations. This is probably the biggest game of Tottenham season in terms of the fight to stay up. It feels like the turning point at which it could really start feeling, if it hasn't already, as though relegation is looming over the horizon rather than this sort of shadowy thing in the distance. So, yeah, spurs go into it as favourites. How they deal with the pressure of that and how the crowd responds if it doesn't go to plan, I think will be two really important factors.
- [47:15]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay, I wasn't going to bite, but I've heard the term spurs go into this as favourites three times in this section of the show. So I will just say they've won two home Premier League games all season, one of which was against Burnley on the opening day. And then I'll move on to Villa versus West Ham. Tim, this is a big opportunity for West Ham, isn't it? Villa played on Thursday night. West Ham have had a free week and their. Their mood is in stark contrast to Villa's right now in the Premier League, at least.
- [47:40]
Tim Spears
Yeah. And amongst the teams fighting out at the bottom, I think West Ham have currently got the best sort of trajectory. They're on a sort of an upward curve. The fans have responded and are sort of behind Nuno now. I've been really impressed with them recently and their Man City game last weekend. They had one shot all match ahead of from Mavropanos, which they scored and then just defended for their lives. But to hear the. To hear the crowd with them was really sort of noticeable for me, because that is not a stadium that fully gets behind their team, you know, even as recently as a couple of weeks ago. But they were extremely supportive and positive and they sort of understood the assignment of not even having a shot against city, barely for 90 minutes. So, yeah, it feels like from nowhere they have become sort of United. And Nuno's improved them defensively. They had that big blip at Liverpool where they lost five, two, but otherwise, in their other five matches recently in the league, they've only conceded two goals, which is very, very good for a team that's, you know, in massive trouble at the bottom end of the table. Somerville being out is a big blow. I think if they had him in the scoring form he was in before his injury, they could realistically go to Villa park and win. Not sure that's still necessarily the case, but they're my favourites to stay up at the moment. They're in a good moment as, again, as other people apparently like to say, but I do too.
- [48:59]
Matt Davis Adams
Apparently a couple of games we haven't touched on. Fulham against Burnley is the only game Kerris that you can't watch in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on telly this weekend. Which is sort of low key. Dig at them really, isn't it? And it's gonna get even worse for them because I'm gonna ask you if you think that Bertie the Bee or Billy the Badger is the most terrifying mascot. I mean this is the most easiest tap into the whole pot, isn't it? The Burnley mascot is genuinely sinister. The Badger's just a badger.
- [49:30]
Kerris Jones
I think I would encourage people to go and look the two up because I think the badger's terrifying. It's the sort of like little connection between the, the patches around the eyes and the mouth that are giving sort of like joker clown makeup sort of vibes. The Bee is also not great. I'm obsessed with Premier League clubs ability to take what should undoubtedly be, you know, cute looking animals and render them like they look like something that is due to be possessed by the spirit of a child in a horror film. So in answer to your actual question, which I can't believe I'm answering, I would probably, you know, if, if I had to choose one to run away from, I'd probably rather Bertie the B.
- [50:12]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay. I mean I think the B would probably be quicker than the Badger. But hey, let us know what you think, listener. Leeds against Brentford. This is Saturday at 8 o'.
- [50:20]
Tim Spears
Clock.
- [50:21]
Matt Davis Adams
As we mentioned, Brentford could go level on points with Chelsea this weekend. Tim, is it just the forest talking? When I say that Leeds are still in trouble, I mean no wins in five, no goals in three. Paul.
- [50:32]
Tim Spears
Fulham. By the way, whenever I'm on this podcast, Fulham just get rinsed by, you know, they basically don't exist. I don't know if it's you or producer Jay, but someone's got beef with Fulham. Yeah, Leeds, I guess they've. They've stalled really, haven't they? They've stopped scoring. Calvert Lewin had that incredible run of seven and six before Christmas, but he's only scored a couple I think this calendar year. And fans are sort of asking for Daniel Farker to take the handbrake off and have a bit more of an attacking approach, maybe top front. They probably need one of the ingenious tactical switches like he did at Man City away, which sparked their great run before Christmas because at the moment they're being dragged into it unwillingly. Farker says they need six to eight points to stay up, which would put them on 38 to 40. I wouldn't be making a public statement saying that's all we need because we'll see improvements from Forest and Spurs in the last few weeks. You always get crazy results at this time of year. I'm not quite sure that that will be enough. And West Ham on the last day for Leeds looms very, very large indeed. Yeah, they, they need something to change because they're, they're really getting dragged down at the moment.
- [51:37]
Kerris Jones
That's England's Dominic Calvert Lewin that you're talking about there, Tim. So you know, blimey, careful.
- [51:42]
Matt Davis Adams
One goal from open play since the 28th of December. Good enough for Thomas Tuchel. Will it be good enough for Leeds? We shall see. And just like that, we're at the end of today's show. An amazing weekend of football coming up. Enjoy it if you can. Listen. My thanks to Keris and Tim and producers Jay and John and to you for listening. Have a great weekend. We'll catch up with you again soon.
- [52:05]
Podcast Producer/Host (Matt or Tommy)
You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Jay Beale and John Rogers and the presenter was Matt Davis Adams. The executive producer is Adie Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts for free, including our dedicated club shows, search for the Athletic in all the usual places. The Athletic FC podcast is an athletic media company production and proudly sponsored by Betfair.
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