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- [00:00]
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- [01:00]
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- [01:15]
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- [01:49]
Matt Davis Adams
The Athletic FC welcome to the preview from the Athletic fc. It's the show where we get you set for the weekend's Premier League action. This week we're starting with a battle at the bridge. It's Chelsea versus Manchester City. And with me for this one we have Tim Spears. Hello Tim.
- [02:12]
Tim Spears
Hi Matt.
- [02:12]
Matt Davis Adams
And Mark Critchley's back with us as well. How you doing Critics?
- [02:15]
Mark Critchley
I'm okay, Matt, thank you very much. Just down in another mug of Lemsip. We soldier on.
- [02:21]
Matt Davis Adams
It's that time of year. Later on, we're going to get into the action elsewhere, but first let's get to our feature presentation. And the title race is heading towards its conclusion. And although Arsenal are still in the ascendancy with a nine point lead at the top, Manchester City aren't giving up without a fight. And Tim, we've seen many different versions of City in recent weeks drop points to relegation strugglers, exited the Champions League whilst entirely lacking in lustre, but they subsequently roared back in the domestic cups. Which version of City are going to turn up this weekend?
- [02:55]
Tim Spears
Yeah, good question. They've had an interesting few months really. They had like that long unbeaten run and then they had that incredible win at Liverpool a couple of months back with sort of late comeback win in stoppage time. Those limp defeats to Real Madrid just seemed to derail them a little bit. And they had those disappointing draws against sort of Forest and West Ham. But amid it all, they've only lost one Premier League game since November. Which doesn't feel about right to me considering, you know, most people have been sort of writing them off for the last few months. But yeah, it kind of feels like the general consensus to me is that Arsenal are vulnerable and Arsenal are catchable, but City are incapable of sort of putting the run together that they'd need to win the title. But I'm not sure that that's as sort of done and dusted as many would have it. I think City still have have it in them and we've seen that in the last two matches in the Carabao Cup Final and the FA cup against Liverpool last week. I mean, obviously the big one, you know, is next Sunday against Arsenal. Post Champions League for Arsenal. Whereas City have a week off. But yeah, they have sort of looked ominous in their last two matches and I do think they're probably still the best team in the league on their day, but lack Arsenal's ability to sort of grind out results. But yeah, I think, you know, as far as City sort of title hopes and which one's going to turn up week after week, if Haaland is in the form that he was in last weekend when he scored his hat trick, then then they are capable of winning every match. If he goes on the kind of run that, that we know he can do, then that that ultimately could be the difference come into the season. You never know.
- [04:25]
Matt Davis Adams
History favors them in this particular fixture. Chelsea winless in their Last nine Premier League games against Pep's posse. And that record stretches back to a 21 away win in May 2021 that took place a few weeks before Chelsea beat City in the Champions League final. And City got this incredible record in April in the Premier League. Won 28 of their last 31 in this month, unbeaten in the last 21 since a home defeat against Leeds in April of 2021. What do you think then? Crich? I feel like we've been asking this question all season, but is this the point where City finally click into gear?
- [05:04]
Mark Critchley
I feel like we asked that question a lot over the last few seasons. I think there's always been this sense that City at a particular time of the year they, they do click into the gear. But that seems to get that point seems to get later and later every year, if you know what I mean. I think when I used to cover City very closely and be the Etihad every other weekend, I remember there was they started the 2020, 2021 the behind closed doors season pretty poorly and then I was looking at the fixture run and I was saying I think they're going to start picking up points now. And I, I'm not trying to say I came up with this idea that they always click into gear at a particular time in the season, but you could tell that they have these runs and they were capable of going on these runs. I think that was December. This is a very different City team now though. I think as Tim says and I think as we've seen week in week out this season, they can be impressive on some days, they can be quite underwhelming on others. You used to be able to count on them to put bad out of form sides away and you could look at a run of fixtures and pick a points total and you wouldn't be far wrong from what they would go on to achieve. I don't think that is this City anymore. I don't think that's this league anymore, to be honest. I don't think that never mind City, but any team is so far ahead of one or the other that that, that they're just going to sweep up points every week. I think we've seen that this case this season and you know the pedigree and the nous that City had in these title races, a lot of that has left the building over the last few years. I agree 100% actually that on their day at the very best they probably are the best footballing team in the league if you like. I still think they are capable at this point right now of reeling Arsenal in and certainly making it a lot tighter than the nine points gap that there is now. Will be it with the game in hand. But do I believe, do I expect it in the same way that I used to when I could just look at City and think, well, they'll be. They're better than this and they will get better than this. I don't know. Despite how well they've played in the last couple of weeks and despite beating Arsenal at Wembley, it's going to be a fascinating little run in. But I think City's margin for error is so small now that they need one of the runs that they used to go on, otherwise they won't do it.
- [07:10]
Tim Spears
Yeah.
- [07:10]
Matt Davis Adams
And they'll be leaning on the experience of Bernardo Silva, who's experienced this many times before, of course. But it looks like he's off at the end of the campaign after nine trophy stuff, seasons at the Etihad. He sort of feels Tim, doesn't he, like the last bastion of the Guardiola golden area. And he's a. He's a player who's going to take some replacing.
- [07:30]
Tim Spears
Yeah, absolutely. It's kind of like I don't know if he's appreciated enough really. It feels like he's a bit of like a footballer's footballer, you know, a bit like Scholes was bit more appreciated by his peers than kind of the wider football fan base. Which probably kind of speaks to the fact that he's not like a highlights real player in terms of like he's sort of the pass before the pass kind of guy. You know, he's never reached double figures for goals or assists in a single Premier League campaign, which sort of, you know, he's just not that type of player. But he's his kind of instinctive feel for what a game needs in terms of like tempo or risk and sort of managing. Managing the team really just in the way that he plays is remarkable. According to Transfermarkt, he's only missed seven matches through injury in nine years, which is just feels absolutely nuts with the amount of football that he plays as well, obviously deep in the Champions League every season, deep in every cup competition, every season plays for Portugal. That is just, you know, a crazy record. Yeah, they'll really miss him. Sort of a surprise that he's leaving. But then he has been there for nine years. It's a long time. Perhaps he wants a bit of a fresh start and with, you know, you mentioned end of an era again, if, you know, with Rodri talking about Real Madrid and maybe that's one to look at in the summer. Then it's. It's going to be a completely different sort of City team next season. But, yeah, yeah, they'll really miss him.
- [08:49]
Mark Critchley
So I. I love Bernardo Silva and I think maybe my most cancelable Manchester City opinions, that they should knock down the David Silver statue outside the Etihad and build a Bernardo silver statue instead. I don't. Or at least give him one of the pictures.
- [09:03]
Matt Davis Adams
You could just scratch off the first name and just say, oh, yeah. I mean, it sort of looks.
- [09:07]
Mark Critchley
Maybe I'll give him a haircut or something. I don't know. Yeah, I think you're right. Yeah. One of the last bastions of the Pep golden era. Absolutely. You've probably really only got him and John Stones left there now, watching him closely and covering him. I always thought that behind Kevin de Bruyne, probably the best footballer of any City player that's been of that era. If you're thinking of Pep's first title win since then. Technical quality, Unbelievable technical quality. But it's not just that, because he also runs 1112 km a game. There's a tenacity to him, there's a spikiness to him, there's an engine in him. He has football and intelligence, but not just to see where to play a pass, but to know when a game demands a greater intensity. And he would always match that intensity as well in a way that other players wouldn't and other players who had his ability wouldn't. And I think, you know, we sometimes talk about players who are like a 7 out of 10 in all areas. Bernardo, for me, he's always been an 8 out of 10 in all areas. And then he's a 9 out of 10 here and he's a 10 out of 10 there as well. Such an important player and somebody who doesn't get the recognition that he really deserves for what he's achieved at the club and in the Premier League over the last few years. And I think, you know, these will be his last weeks and months at Manchester City. And I hope he gets the appreciation that he deserves, because I think he's been brilliant.
- [10:20]
Matt Davis Adams
So he joined in 2017. A year prior, a significant Premier League event took place. Alluded to it at the top, the battle of the bridge. We're coming up to a decade since that infamous Chelsea against Tottenham match in May 2016. Tim, if there's anyone listening who didn't catch it at the time, give us a quick reminder of what Happened on that feisty night in West London.
- [10:42]
Tim Spears
Oh God, where do you start? I think spurs needed to win the rest of their sort of two or three matches to overhaul Leicester and win the title. And they were 2 nil up. I remember possibly at half time and then Chelsea come back to 2, 2 hazards. Late equalizer sort of gives Leicester the title. But yeah, it was just the most ill tempered match I can remember in the Premier League. Spurs had nine bookings which I think is still a Premier League record. Chelsea had three. There was just sort of constant melees and brawls and fights on and off the pitch. I remember Pochettino coming onto the pitch at one point to separate players. I remember Gus Hiddink being pushed over Chelsea's manager at the time. They were fined 600 grand between them and Dembele. Musa Dembele from Spurs had a six match ban. I think it was for I gouging Diego Costa. And my favorite stat from that match is that of the 12 players booked, Diego Costa I believe was not one of them. And there was lots of fallout for years to come. I remember. Do you remember Clattenberg's interview? I think after he'd retired, after he left the Premier League. Mark Clattenburg, he was the referee on the night and he said he could have sent off a few spurs players but he didn't want the headlines of oh, Clattenberg costs Spurs the title. So he tactically managed the game contrary to the laws of football just to not make it all about him. But of course by doing that he then made it all about him, which is sort of classic Clattenberg. So yeah, quite an occasion really.
- [12:05]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. Well, it's only a couple of weeks until Chelsea host Spurs again in May at Stamford Bridge with the tantalizing possibility for them of sending their rivals down back in 2026. Chelsea returned to winning ways against Port Bale 7 nil thrashing at the Bridge last weekend. On Sunday though, they'll attempt to bounce back from consecutive league defeats to Newcastle and Everton. They last lost three in a row in May 2023. Do you put any stock critch in that Port Vale result in terms of settling nerves? I mean you couldn't really get a bigger contrast in terms of calibre of opposition from one week to the next.
- [12:41]
Mark Critchley
Not really. I think if one and a half billion pounds worth of talent needs to beat the worst side in League one in order to pick the confidence up, then you've probably got an issue there. I think, look, Chelsea will have had a bit of breathing Space since those Newcastle, the psg, the Everton games obviously over the international break, you would hope that would have helped. But then they've also had the first sort of major blow up and internal disciplinary issue of Rocinha's time with Enzo Fernandes, haven't they? I think this is a really critical spell for them. The morale just around the club, among the supporters feels like it's sort of through the floor. City coming this weekend is always going to be a huge test. But then it's United next weekend as well. And then I think they're away at Brighton, who are in good form at the moment after that. And you know, I've been away with United this week and looking at the Champions League permutations there, I know that basically by the end of those three games, if Chelsea slip up, United can qualify for the Champions League within three games. By the end of the month Chelsea would still be in the race obviously in that scenario, but it just feels like a really important time and a critical time for them. And of all the top five contenders in this little run for Champions League football, you probably look at their running and say that it's the roughest, it's the most difficult. That can mean different things at the end of the season because different teams have different incentives and different priorities. And you know, maybe it's not as difficult as it looks in the end, but you wouldn't want to be Chelsea in this race right now given just how much noise and how much distraction there is around the club and how much uncertainty really. Which is, I think is is one key point of what Enzo's comments raised. So I don't put too much stock in a thumping 70 win against the worst side in League One. Like I say, I. Although, you know, you'd rather certainly win 70 than go out.
- [14:22]
Matt Davis Adams
After winning each of their first four Premier League games under a senior, Chelsea have won just one of the last six. Since only Leeds and Spurs have won fewer points in the Premier League across that period. Do you think he can turn it around, Tim?
- [14:38]
Tim Spears
Blimey, that's bad, isn't it? I mean, he's not doing much to suggest that he can, Matt. You know, you look at sort of Carrick across the way at Man United, you know, doing everything he can to prove that he's the man to still be there next season. Rossini is just not doing any of that. I mean, you know, the style of play is confusing. The players don't look inspired by him. I think if the players aren't Having him, I'm not sure how he can sort of turn it around and like in terms of like a, you know, a flag in the ground kind of big result. This is me, this is my team. Other than sort of Napoli away, I mean that's, that's pretty much all they've had I think. And the way that they exited the Champions League, you know, months after beating PSG in the club World cup final to then be absolutely hammered, you know, it just reflected so badly on Racinia. And the Everton game was hardly. Was, was arguably worse. You know, their last Premier League game before the international break, three nil defeat at Everton was, was shambolic frankly. You know, one very principled, hard working, committed team where everybody knew their roles. Obviously that was Everton and Chelsea were just the complete opposite. I mean obviously, you know, in theory he can turn it around. If they win the FA cup and sort of finish handsomely in the top five then maybe. But even that might not be enough. I think the fans aren't having him and the players aren't having him. So it's, it's pretty difficult to turn it around from here.
- [15:52]
Matt Davis Adams
Is he sort of working with one arm tied behind his back? Rich? I mean he's the fifth permanent coach under the Blue co ownership. You mentioned Enzo Fernandez. Marc Cucure did an interview with the Athletic over the international break as well. He said we've got a good core of players. Foundations are there but to fight for major trophies you need more. Signing young players only might complicate achieving those goals. Some noises from Rocinha himself that there might be more experienced players, different characters arriving in the summer. Is that a kind of admission from the ownership that the path that they've chosen to go down is not working for them?
- [16:28]
Mark Critchley
Partly, perhaps, yeah. I think it was a great interview by Paul with Cucurel and that and that quote, that line really stands out from it. It hasn't been working. Blue Co for private equity guys, you wouldn't say that it's been a great return on investment so far. And I think this policy that they've had with, with signing young players, I think it's a great example of almost taking a principle of good practice but applying it to, to the absolute extreme. And you see quite a lot of clubs do this. I think what you've got to actually do is think about what good practice in recruitment in the top end of the Premier League looks like. When I think of that best recruitment of the past decade in the Premier League when it comes to actually winning titles and Major prizes, probably Liverpool, sometime like the early Klopp era, like 2016, around 2019, you know, when they're bringing in players who. Andy Robertson is 23 years old, Mane's 24 years old, Wijnaldum's 25 years old. They aren't old players, they aren't super experienced players, but they are players who can come in, do a job now and in the future and you get that blend. Right. If you have that experience that they're augmented to within the squad already, that allows you to compete at the level at which clubs like Liverpool, but also Chelsea need to compete. I understand it's about selling players on at a profit and having resale value and increasing value of not just the squad but also the club in that way. But it's a question of priority. This isn't a private equity fund, it is a football club. It does need to win matches and that is where, you know, those priorities have been skewed. I think Chelsea have been smart in some respects in that they looked at certainly the sort of financial regulations around Premier League football, English football, European football, and saw that there was gaps and holes within there that they could. I don't know if exploit is the word, but that were right to be, you know, looked at and, and, and perhaps taken advantage of, maybe. But the attention has strayed away from the pitch and it's always going to fall back there. You're always going to be judged on what happens on that pitch and that's where they've been going wrong. And yeah, look, those comments would suggest that they finally recognise that too.
- [18:41]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, well, it's a big game for them and for City on Sunday. Next, we're going to look into personnel and where each team could hurt each other.
- [18:52]
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- [20:03]
TurboTax Advertiser
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- [21:00]
Verizon Advertiser
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- [21:39]
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- [21:45]
Matt Davis Adams
So no Enzo Fernandez for this one. He's got a two game ban. He served one of them against Port Vale, a club suspension after fluttering his eyelashes at Real Madrid. So Rhys James is injured. A little bit of whispers that he might make a comeback, but I think that's quite unlikely. Enzo Fernandez would usually wear the armband in his absence. Trevor Chalaba would be another candidate. Tim, but he's injured as well, so. So who's going to have that little bit of strapping around their bicep on. On Sunday afternoon? Was this Caicedo, presumably?
- [22:17]
Tim Spears
I mean, probably Cucure be a sort of wild card. Romero, like, bit of a nutter, but, you know, very passionate option. I mean, you know, he spoke very well in his interviews, sort of Crick said. I don't know. Yeah, not an obvious list of candidates and speaks to, you know, you know, wider issues about Chelsea and leadership and experience and I guess, you know, the problem for Rossini and the club as a whole is when you've got a sort of a young, developing team, they need to show signs of improvement and signs of a future. I feel like they're regressing at the moment. You know, a year ago under Maresca, yeah, results were inconsistent, but they obviously won a couple of trophies at the end of the season and you felt like Mareskin needed time to work it all out and, and to improve the team sort of year on year. You don't get that feeling with Racinha at all. And the sort of lack of experience is maddening to me. Teams can't grow and mature without experienced players in them to sort of guide them along the way. And for all sort of Chelsea's willingness to buy an incredible amount of players, the fact that they've needed an experienced goalkeeper for some time and an experienced centre back for some time and have just been unwilling or for whatever reason have not brought those players in, makes it a sort of a flawed concept for me. And, yeah, lack of leaders is certainly part of that issue.
- [23:37]
Matt Davis Adams
Well, Cole Palmer started with the armband against Port Vale. Tosin finished with it. Do you put much stock in the role of captain these days, Critcher, or is it just more ceremonial than anything else? And maybe if it's your striker, he might win you a few more free kicks.
- [23:53]
Mark Critchley
I think it's still important. I think it's still. I understand that historically, especially in English football and certainly with the English national team, I think we've attached a greater importance to it than other countries, other footballing cultures. But I think it becomes particularly important in moments when the club is struggling, when there is morale does dip within a dressing room, when you are looking for people, figures, senior players to step up and take responsibility for things That's a real thing. It's a real thing in any workplace. It's a real thing in life. I look at Chelsea right now and I think that without Rhys James, who I think when he's been fit this season and he's been more fit than he hasn't been, has been excellent, but without that. Is there really that figure there? Is there really that personality? I don't know. I saw the lads writing about, the Chelsea lads at our place, writing about this, this week, and they just. There's so many options that could take the armband this weekend, but none of them are particularly convincing. And I think that is a risk, obviously, of the policy that you set out if you're only signing 19, 20, 21 year olds, that you have players who don't have that experience, who don't have that know how to get through things. And so it'll be interesting to see who does take the armband. I'd probably, you know, why not give it Cole Palmer or someone like that? There's no real compelling case elsewhere in the squad. So it'd be interesting to see Rossini select.
- [25:18]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. Palmer against his old club, of course, having scored that dramatic late penalty and that bonkers 44 between the sides at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago. Now then, Tim flipping it back to City. You're in Uzbekistan recently, of course, you compared Abdoukadir Kuzinov to Cristiano Ronaldo. You're gonna need to explain that to me.
- [25:38]
Tim Spears
Yeah. Can't take free kicks, either of them. No, it was. It was to do with sort of like his superstar status out in Uzbekistan. They haven't been. I mean, you know, as. As. As you could probably predict, there haven't been many Uzbekistan superstars. In fact, there have been none, really. You know, I'm told that Kusanov is already the sort of biggest and most famous footballer they've ever had. Yeah, I spent a really interesting week out there. They don't speak much English in Uzbekistan, but if you say the word Kusanov, you can have a conversation with anyone. You know, just the words, Kusanov, Manchester City, very good. That kind of thing. His face is on, like, billboards. He's all over the news. It's like mostly a local squad that Uzbekistan have got. They're in the World cup for the first time this summer. A huge deal for the country. But, yeah, 15 of their squad playing in the Uzbek League, and most of the rest play in UAE and Iran. So it's pretty rare for a player to sort of fly the nest and the fact that he's one of the biggest clubs in the world. Yeah, he's a huge star back there. And it's a really interesting story with Uzbekistan. They've got a real generation of sort of talent coming through. They've done well at under 17 and under 20 level and yeah, Kusanov could be the first of many. Yeah, they'll all be watching this weekend. They're all Man City fans now and they'll be watching him against Chelsea. And it's sort of a bit of a full circle moment for Kusanov because he's in outstanding form at the moment. But people will remember his debut against Chelsea 15 months ago when he, in the third minute, I think, kind of leaves a. A short header back to the keeper and Madwece scores. And Gary Neville said on commentary that he felt like crying for Kusanov, so disastrous was he start and then he got booked as well. This was all within the first five minutes and he looked absolutely terrified. So kind of 15 months on for him to now be, I think undoubtedly City's best defender certainly in sort of recent weeks. And with his like extraordinary pace, but also composure and reading of the game is exceptional. And I watched Uzbekistan vs Venezuela when I was out there in Tashkent, the capital city.
- [27:46]
Matt Davis Adams
Didn't we all?
- [27:48]
Tim Spears
Honestly, Matt, if you didn't see it, you missed a good match. Yeah, yeah. But honestly it was, it was staggering how easy it was for Kusanov. And I know it's only Venezuela and Solomon Rondon by the way up front, but he was the best player on the pitch by a mile. It was far too easy for him. He was basically covering all of his teammates. He was stopping attacks on his own and he was starting attacks with his raking passes. And yeah, he's a real hero out there. But more importantly for Man City, yeah, he's been their best player in recent weeks and really kind of growing and maturing into that role. And I can see him being, you know, at the top level for many years to come.
- [28:24]
Matt Davis Adams
So he might be City's best defender at the moment. Slash of the season. What about Nico O'Reilly? Critch? I mean, is he even a defender? He's nailed on for a place in the World cup squad, isn't he? I guess the interesting thing with him is where's he eventually going to settle down into his preferred position?
- [28:40]
Mark Critchley
Yeah, we actually go to the same barbers, me and Nico O'Reilly. I was sat in the chair with him a few months ago. Although he was just on his phone and then I think he went somewhere else. And we've got slightly different haircuts. Mine's certainly a little bit more conservative, I think. But no, he quite an aside his best position. Look, I think he came, he was coming through as a midfielder. Everybody knows that. He's transitioned towards left back and I think left back is a problem position for England this summer. He started there against Japan on current form and I know that sounds daft when O'Reilly's winning cup finals and scoring goals on current form, I think probably Lewis hall is maybe slightly ahead of him. I thought he was excellent in the Champions League against Jamal, certainly at the St. James park leg anyway. And O'Reilly playing left back in Pep Guardiola system is quite different from playing left back in any other system. And you can see him now. The reason why he's getting on the end of chances and he's scoring goals is because he's popping up in eight positions. It's a much more fluid role. I think that suits him in this team. I think he's playing brilliantly. I think he probably will go to the World cup with England simply because of how well he's playing, but also because there's a lot of question marks over that left back role. I just wonder whether he'll start. Thomas Tuchel's clearly a huge fan of him and he's right to be because I remember when he broke through at the start of last season and coming through in the summer city have this where a kid will just come out of nowhere that you don't quite expect, but suddenly, because they understand, because they take on board the information, because they can essentially absorb everything that Pep wants from them. He'll give them opportunities, he'll give them chances. More so than he would make, perhaps other players who've had to wait their turn and maybe had gone elsewhere in the end. I think we've just spoken about a couple of them in terms of Cole Palmer, etc. But he's done that and I think that's to his credit. I wonder whether he'll actually move back into midfield one day. But it's so fluid and he's capable of anything that yeah, I think it'd be a huge asset for England this summer as well.
- [30:39]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, very much in the kind of Rico Lewis model of plugging in player. Remember him coming off the bench at halftime at Stamford Bridge as a teenager in 2023 and we thought he was a left back and Pep put him in midfield and he Totally ran the game. Let's finish with Chelsea, Tim, as we wrap up Esteval, is he their main hope of salvaging the season? I mean, that's quite a thing to say about a teenager in his first season in English football. But their wide options have flattered to deceive by and large. And he did get a goal against Portvale on his return and they have missed him.
- [31:11]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I guess he's had a bit of a stop start season, hasn't he Matt? With you know, the odd injury here and there and lots of time on the bench, which I guess you'd expect for, you know, his, his age still very young. And also there's the fact that because he came from Brazil, I mean he's basically had, well, he's had an extremely long season, you know, sort of playing through from the Brazilian season, going to the club World cup and then coming straight to the Premier League. You've got to really, really beware of the risk of burnout. I think I'm right in saying he's still Chelsea's most productive attacker in terms of like goal involvements per 90 and as you say, a really underwhelming season for Chelsea's forward line. I mean, Garnacho is like horribly inconsistent and Neto has not really hit the heights that I think he's capable of. Liam delapsed on next to nothing again. He's been injured. Palmer definitely not at his best. Gittins did very little before his injury. You know, Joe Pedro's been, been good, but Esteban's the one capable of producing something special, you know, every time he's on the pitch. So yeah, they'll be grateful that he's back, but I still think you have to be wary of sort of playing him week after week after week, given the incredibly long season he's already had.
- [32:17]
Matt Davis Adams
Let's do some predictions then. What do you reckon, Tim? What's the score going to be?
- [32:21]
Tim Spears
I think you have to favour City. Probably, probably two one.
- [32:24]
Mark Critchley
Yeah, absolutely. I think City win this and I think they could win it quite comfortably, to be honest. Yeah, I'm going to go two zero to be honest. Two zero.
- [32:32]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay. 4:30 Sunday for that one.
- [32:35]
Podcast Announcer
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [32:40]
Matt Davis Adams
This is the part of the show where with the help of our partners, Betfair, we show you how you can play in a different league this season. James Mackie's back with us. James, we're talking Chelsea against Manchester City. It's been a one sided fixture in recent times. Do the odds reflect that for the match 90 market?
- [32:57]
James Mackie
Yeah, you bang on that. The Betfair Sportswalk has the home side Chelsea as the 1710 outsiders to cause an upset on Sunday and you can see why being winless in their last nine Premier League games against Manchester City, City are the strong 1110 favorites to keep the pressure on Arsenal at the top of the table and have won four of their last five away Premier League games against Chelsea. Interestingly though, the draw is priced at 21 to 10 and Man City have drawn both of their last two Premier League games and and the reverse fixture of this game this season finished in a 1:1 draw. So there is potential for another stalemate on the cards here.
- [33:29]
Matt Davis Adams
Matt, I think Chelsea would take that. Probably Arsenal would as well. Now bet builder wise tell us about last week's because we got achingly close but also this week's I believe includes a man who's hit the ground running at his new club and a man who loves a card almost as much as he loves some points on his driving license.
- [33:46]
James Mackie
Oh oh Matt, we were so unlucky last week honestly in the City v Liverpool game both Haaland and Salah to score anytime. Harland got a hat trick and Salah all he had to do was put the penalty away to get a consolation and now that was saved. So look we did have a loser but he went very close so hopefully we can go even closer this week. We're going for two selections in the bet builder starting with Chelsea's center half Wesley Fafana to be carded at 12 to 5. He's been card in both of Chelsea's last two league games and up against Haaland he could be in for a tough afternoon. The second and final selection is Antoine Semenya to score anytime. He scored a beautiful goal against Liverpool in the FA cup didn't he? Was it was a great finish, great run. Well City were brilliant anyway but he's been in smart form for City since joining Bournemouth. His record for Bournemouth scoring was brilliant anyway but he's notched eight goals already for City so far since joining in January and he's 9 to 5 to score any time on Sunday. So overall those two selections come together for around a 152 bet builder and the beauty of the to score any time goal scorer market and to be carded market is that there is safe sub attached to it meaning that if that leg of the bet hasn't won and that player comes off the player that replaces them carries on that leg
- [34:48]
Matt Davis Adams
of the bet mat Tremendous. All right, we'll keep our fingers crossed for that one. Cheers, James. Have a good weekend.
- [34:54]
Podcast Announcer
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [34:59]
Matt Davis Adams
Now then, Arsenal have the chance to move 12 points clear of City before a ball is kicked on Sunday. If they beat Bournemouth in the early kickoff on Saturday, that was a massive win for them. Critch, wasn't it, in midweek, late on at Sporting, that after defeats in the Carabao Cup Final and against Southampton in the FA Cup. I mean, a draw would have been okay for them in midweek, but it would have had people saying, three games without a win. Is this all falling apart now? So big, big victory for them coming into this one against the Cherries on Saturday.
- [35:32]
Mark Critchley
Yeah, I thought it was a pretty impressive performance, to be honest, from Arsenal. I know Sporting had their chances at the moment. It's a kind of classic European performance, isn't it? It's getting there, digging in, keeping it tight and then pouncing at the end, nicking a one nil away from home and then going back and having the second leg at home and basically putting one foot forward into the next round. We'll see how it shakes out next week. But something that can take a lot of confidence and a lot of momentum from. Last time I was on this podcast, I think I said Arsenal would win the League and then I tried to give myself a sneaky way out by saying that if they lost the Carabao Cup Final, that could change. Now I'm back on this podcast much sooner than I expected to be. Arsenal have lost the Carabao Cup Final and the fence that I was trying to sit on with that one is sort of broken down from underneath me. I still think they're going to do it. I think that the. Look at the points advantage right now, even with that game in hand, that is huge at this point the season. And they just. We say it all the time, don't we? But we just. They find a way to grind out enough results to get them over the line. It really will take, I think, the sort of City run that we've historically used to, but we're not that sure whether they're capable of anymore to catch them. And so the game at the Etihad next week is massive in that respect, but I feel like Arsenal have come through whatever little blip they had with that win the other night and should be able to see it over the line.
- [36:51]
Matt Davis Adams
Bournemouth haven't lost since the reverse. They've drawn their last five games. So if ever there was Going to be a grind, Tim. This looks like it would be it. But if there's ever a team to grind and emerge victorious, it's Arsenal.
- [37:04]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I guess so. Yeah. I was, I was in Lisbon in the week and they sort of, you know, they really played within themselves. I thought they were, they were very slow, they were sort of labored in possession, sporting with a better team and got a standing ovation from their fans as say and, and a round of applause after Arsenal's goal. So pleased with sporting fans with their team's efforts. And yet it's, it's Arsenal who come away with the win. They've gone away to a team who'd won 17 matches in a row at home and Arsenal went, didn't play that well and still won 1 nil. I'm not sure anyone else in the Premier League, you know, goes there and does that to be honest. And it showed real mental strength after those two defeats that you mentioned, Matt. But yeah, they do have a really interesting history, recent history against Bournemouth who beat them twice last year. And Arsenal had that incredible comeback victory against Bournemouth in the title race, was it 2003? 23 maybe when they were sort of two nil down, last minute winner re Nelson. So yeah it's, it's an interesting matchup and it's a big match I think to sort of keep the pressure off a little and not make this a really nervy title race because there's a doomsday scenario here where maybe Arsenal lose home to Bournemouth and slip up at the weekend. Maybe City beat Chelsea and then next weekend City can beat Arsenal to go three points behind with a game in hand and all hell breaks loose, you know, but you can sort of flip that and say look, if Arsenal beat Bournemouth as they should do, maybe 60 drop two points at Chelsea at the weekend and then Arsenal could then get to City next weekend looking to end the title race by going 14 points clear with a win and then the title is done. I mean they can lift the trophy in like three weeks. So I mean I love this time of season because it just can completely flip one way or the other. But yeah, like you say, really interesting matchup against Bournemouth and definitely not a given that Arsenal will win that.
- [38:54]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, so that's the top two on in action on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Behind Arsenal and Manchester City are Manchester United. They host Leeds on Monday night. Amad the latest to back Michael Carrick to get the job on a full time basis. Harry Maguire signed a new contract. It's all good News at Old Trafford Crit. This must be very unsettling for you.
- [39:18]
Mark Critchley
It's been exclusively great news for months now. I don't know if you've been paying attention. It coincided actually almost exactly with my colleague Laurie Whitwell going on paternity leave and leaving me to deal with it all. And the bad news from United's perspective is that Laurie's back on Monday so we can expect the whirlwind to strike up again, I guess. Yeah. Look, I spent the past week in Ireland over in. Well, I was staying in Dublin, but United were in County Kildare doing a mid season training camp, obviously taking advantage of these huge, gaping gaps that they've had in the schedule this season. Given that they're not in Europe and that they went out of both domestic competitions at the first opportunity, it's meant that they have the time, they have the resource to work and to work on the training pitch and to take these opportunities. And I think it's 24 days between this game on Monday night and the draw at Bournemouth before the March international break. I think it's the longest gap there's ever been between two Premier League fixtures for a side which is. Which is incredible, really, in the middle of a season. So they've made use of that by having this camp going away. Sorting out Harry Maguire's contract. Now on the horizon and into focus comes seven games through the end of the season which will define this season one of the weirdest, strangest, most peculiar seasons that United have had recently. And it will also come to shape the next one as well. Champions League football. Now, from this position, what is it, seven points clear of Chelsea in sixth place, you would expect them to do it, but the whole perception of how Michael Carrick has performed, the turnaround that he's led over the last few months, that will change completely if they don't manage to do it. So it's a really key period. They play Chelsea, they play Liverpool, they're playing first up, Leeds, which we know the history of this fixture, we know the rivalry, we know how absolutely horrible and aggressive and dirty and bitter it can be. And it's on a Monday night which is a stunning. It's just incredible really, that that's the scheduling for this. But it's an opportunity then to just really build the foundations for next season, but also press home the advantage that they've built up over the last few months. And I think whether or not they do qualify for the Champions League, we expect them to from this position, like I say, but whether or not, they do will really inform that decision over who the next manager is and exactly how much he'll be able to do in the summer transfer market. That's how defining really these next seven games are starting on Monday night against Leeds.
- [41:52]
Matt Davis Adams
See, I was going to ask Tim if we're beyond the point now of even asking the question as to whether it might not be Michael Carrick in the dugout next season, but I guess Critch is right, it all hinges on Champions League qualification. As unlikely as it appears that they might throw that away, having only lost one in ten under the interim manager.
- [42:11]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I feel like, I mean, you know, obviously he has to get the job done, but I feel like they will get over the line and it's this sort of entirely predictable position where you sort of have to give him the job, but that doesn't make him the right man for the job. I mean, there's so many things that he sort of hasn't had to deal with this season that he would do next season. Like for one, expectations which will, which will soar given the results that he's delivered so far. Obviously they'll have far, far more matches to play than they're playing now next season, particularly if they're in the Champions League. He'll have to integrate new sign ins and deal with more adversity and setbacks and unhappy players. You know, he's not really had to deal with these things yet, so I don't know. I'm not saying he can't deal with those things, but if you're United's hierarchy, I think you really have to factor that in. You know, is he capable of dealing with the kind of pressure and expectation and competing in multiple competitions that he just hasn't had to cope with yet in his managerial career, really. So, yeah, it's certainly heading in that direction of travel. I think they'll find it really hard not to give him the job if they get the job done, which you'd expect them to.
- [43:14]
Matt Davis Adams
Well, elsewhere in the Champions League, Chase Villa, go to Forest. Liverpool host Fulham. Neither of those two have been particularly good certainly in the Premier League, but in Villa and a very good win in Bologna on Thursday. I mean, the last league game was ages ago against West Ham. Are you convinced that their, their wobble has steadied after those wins in those two fixtures?
- [43:36]
Tim Spears
Not quite, but I feel like, yeah, that West Ham win was hugely important. I mean, now that now that fifth place has been confirmed as a Champions League spot, they've got a six point buffer to Chelsea in sixth, which is, which is pretty handy. Obviously it's the business end of the season, but particularly for Villa. Now this is where it all needs to come together and they're in the quarterfinals of the Europa League and looking pretty good in that, as you say, in the Premier League. After this, they've got Sunderland, Fulham, spurs and Burnley, their next four. I think they can confirm their Champions League spot during those matches before they end this season playing Liverpool and City. And they're probably favorites to win the Europa League. You know, despite their sort of poor form in the Premier League in recent weeks, they've won eight in a row now in the Europa League. And it's in their hands to have their best season for. Well, in my lifetime, I think what since they won the European cup, if they, if they finish third or fourth and win the Europa League, I mean that's, that's almost as good as it gets for a club like Villa, which is. So, yeah, it's all sort of in their hands. And with, with, with McGinn back, with Tielemans back, with Watkins scoring again, you know, their injury list has completely subsided. There's only Kamara and Sancho that are out now. Other than that they got fully fit squad. Yeah, I'm going to back them to sort of deliver that. I think Emery's the man who can deliver that in terms of winning the Europa League and qualifying for Champions League, which would be an incredible season and one that's gone slightly under the radar as to just how well they're doing overall.
- [45:03]
Matt Davis Adams
So they're on the cusp of a glorious season. Not going to say the same for Liverpool, are we? Critch on the floor after their rotten performances against PSG and Man City. Sounds like Arne Slot is going to see the season out. But in terms of a drop off from one season to the next, it's pretty incredible. And that illustrated by nobody more so than Mohamed Salah, I guess. Didn't even get off the bench in midweek.
- [45:26]
Mark Critchley
Yeah, incredible really that he didn't seek to bring Salah on in that game. But then I think we've all seen Salah's drop off this season. It's spectacular because of the heights that he's reached more than the depths that he's plummeted. But they have been some depths as well on slot, I think. Look, there's. There's sort of different opinions on the extent to which he's to blame. I'm sort of sympathetic towards the argument that you don't win a title and become a busted flush overnight. But I also look at that game against PSG the other night, switched to a back three. It strikes me as a manager that's sort of thrashing around for solutions and not really finding one. Like I don't think Liverpool are a club to make rash decisions to chase a sort of sort of short term boost or lift, particularly at this late stage of the season. I think they're a much more methodical and much more deliberate club than that that won't be spun into rash decisions. Like I say, but you look at the magnitude of some of the games that they have coming up that could heighten the sense that something drastic has to change or something drastic has to happen. Maybe not now, but certainly at the end of the season. I mean you've got that PSG second leg next week you've got the Merseyside Derby. I think it's the first Merseyside Derby. Hill Dickinson isn't it? Weekend after United, Chelsea Villa they play all three of them back to back next month. All these rivals for the top five places. This is such a pivotal period and I think that impressions and maybe decisions if not executed, will start to be formed over the next few months over whether slot's the right man to leave them forward next.
- [47:00]
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- [48:32]
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- [49:08]
Podcast Announcer
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [49:13]
Matt Davis Adams
And now then West Ham have the chance to put spurs into the relegation zone if they beat Wolves on Friday night that before spurs travel to Sunderland on Sunday. Tim Wolves could be king makers in this relegation race, couldn't they? They got Leeds and Spurs to follow this. They won the reverse fixture. How do you see them getting on on Friday night?
- [49:35]
Tim Spears
I anticipate seeing it from a distance, Matt, because that away and does not offer the best views and well nor do many places in that stadium to be honest. Yeah, I mean West Ham's home form is pretty good. They're they're unbeaten in seven including the FA cup, but only two victories. The key for them I think is probably how many of their injured players come back. They were missing for the Leeds FA cup match last weekend. They were missing Somerville, Todibo, Mavropanos, Wan Bissaka and Callum Wilson, a couple of key players there, particularly Somerville and Mavropanos. Somerville had scored 711 before his injury in the form of his entire career. So if they can get him back. Nuno was sort of tight lipped in his press conference this week, but I think the signs are positive that he'll be back and Mavropanos as well. And I think in what will probably be quite a tight match, Somerville's the kind of player that can really make the difference. So. Yeah, but yeah. Wolves play West Ham, Leeds and Spurs in the next three. International break came at a really bad time for Wolves, who had earned seven points from three matches. Beat Liverpool, beat Villa, drew away at Brentford. Yeah, it's been almost four weeks since, since their last match, but if they can. If Wolves can win at West Ham and then beat Leeds and then beat Spurs, I mean, it's on Matt, to be honest, the people. No one's even talking about Wolf staying up, which I find ridiculous because it's. They're in the area, the fourth team of the league, seven points from nine. So, yeah, let's. Let's see how we get on.
- [50:58]
Matt Davis Adams
I'm personally very much invested in you winning all three of those games, I must say. What about spurs then? Cric. I feel like this is the perfect first game for Roberto de Zerbi because there's not the expectation that comes from home games. And Tottenham's home record, as we know, is absolutely atrocious. Sunderland, meanwhile, their home form's fallen off a cliff. They've lost the last three at the Stadium of Light. So I don't know, set up well for him, isn't it?
- [51:24]
Mark Critchley
I. Look, that's an interesting take. I was going to say I wouldn't like it. I wouldn't like this as the first game up just because of. I know, okay, so Sunderland's home record was faulted recently, but it's been a very difficult place to go and I do think that there will be an element of expectations. To be honest, it's not really about expectation, is it? Because whether you expect to win a game or not is irrelevant for Tottenham at the moment. They need to, they need to win games, whatever the game is. It's never a good position to have a must win game as your first game is a must win game. But this is what it is. The situation is, I think it's simply that desperate for them right now. The stakes are that high. The de Zerbi appointment, it's an extraordinary gamble really, because it's one that Tottenham had just very little leverage in making. You demonstrated in that five year deal, struck from the sounds of it, basically exactly on the terms that de Zerbi wanted because they are desperate. I think when you think of him as his previous time in the Premier League went to Brighton, you could immediately see the differences in how they tried to play. And so maybe that is like a glimmer of hope, if you like, for Tottenham that he is able to come in and make a Quick impact and turn things around. But when I think about how Brighton and how they appoint coaches, they do it according to a very defined process. A model, a structure, a set of ideas. Tottenham don't. And if anything, they've appointed a coach who's sort of defining tactical ideas and characteristics that we think of. If you think of like the. The buildup, the patience, the bait in the press and then really attacking at speed, these are all things that that squad of players has looked totally incapable of doing this season. It's the sort of style that's beyond them and that makes it this extraordinary gamble. I'm absolutely fascinated as to how it's going to work out. I think everybody is. I think it's the story of the remainder of the season, really, no matter what else is going on in the league. We're talking about title races, we're talking about top five. What happens at Tottenham over these next seven games is going to be extraordinary. So, look, in some ways I can see it being. I take your point. Sunderland defaulted a little bit of late. They've not had to. They've not had to essentially get the results because they did the hard work in the first half of the season. Maybe that plays into Tottenham's hands a little bit. But before Igor Tudor was dismissed, this was the worst team in the league. It was the worst team in the league. Just watch them. They're the worst team in the league. And that represents a huge turnaround for Roberto de Zerbi to complete in the next few games.
- [53:54]
Matt Davis Adams
Running looks really tricky, I think, Tim. Now we know that the Wolves survival bid is very much on. They go to Molineux in a couple of weeks. Brighton's his first home game. Obviously narrative there, but they're looking much better and going for Europe. Then he's got to go to Villa. Chasing Champions League host Leeds relegation rival go to Chelsea. Chasing Champions League. Massive rival finish at home to Everton. Might be something on that for Everton too. It's a really sticky spell. Are you backing him to keep them up?
- [54:24]
Tim Spears
How can you predict. It's like throwing blind at a dartboard. It's impossible to predict this relegation battle. I mean, I think probably as with postecoglou last year when he sacrificed his principles to win the Europa League and went completely against everything that he sort of believed in and preached week after week, but got them success, I think it'd probably take de Zerbi to do a little bit of that and maybe leave some of his principles at the door. I'm not sure he can do what he did at the start of Brighton or at Marseille. He needs a pre season for what he really wants to do. And spurs need a man manager as much as a tactician. I think at the moment. I honestly don't know, Matt. I don't know. I think he's definitely got the best sort of aura of the managers they've had this season. So maybe that keeps them up, you know, aura alone gets them in 17th.
- [55:12]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, well, we shall see. We know. Leeds go to Old Trafford on Monday. Forest host Villa on Sunday. The Athletics Premier League hopometer ranked forest fans at 90% optimistic. I'm not sure I'm one of those, Timmy. Are you confident that my boys have got what it takes to survive? I mean, from a Forest fan's perspective, this is absolutely crazy, right? We're looking at the possibility of being in the championship or possibly the Champions League next season or maybe both.
- [55:41]
Tim Spears
I mean that's just classic Forest. I stunned this hopometer. I honestly thought all Forest fans were like you, Matt, and just completely pessimistic and fearing the worst, but obviously not. I've got no confidence that they're safe, to be honest. I know they got the great result at spurs last time out, but obviously spurs are a complete basket case. Chris Wood's back, which is, which is a big boost. But this really weird situation of like a team fighting relegation while also trying to win a European trophy. And it feels like Vito Pereira's put his eggs in the staying up basket rather than the winning the Europa League basket. I know they obviously got a really good result in Porto on Thursday night, but to make so many changes, Matt, I'd be infuriated. I know they got, I know they got the result and maybe, maybe you can go through a home to Porto next week. But how many times in one lifetime will Forest be this close to winning a major trophy? And it's a European trophy, you know, I mean, Matt, would you accept relegation if you win the Europa League? Sure. Surely you would.
- [56:38]
Matt Davis Adams
I absolutely 100% would. But I know a Greek fella who's probably not that keen on it and I rather suspect that he's telling Vitor Pereira which eggs go in which basket. I mean, it makes this, this game on Sunday pretty fascinating, doesn't it, Chris? Because obviously both Forest and Villa going for the Europa League could be a dress rehearsal for the semi final. But also say if Forest win then they have to go full strength against Porto because they then got Burnley coming to the City ground following that on the Sunday. Yeah, players can't be that tight, can they? They've just had three weeks off.
- [57:14]
Mark Critchley
Look, I think. I think Forest's problem this season has been goals for me. Like it's actually they've scored fewer than Burnley, which absolutely stopped me in my tracks when I realised it.
- [57:23]
Matt Davis Adams
13 from 228 shots at the City ground. Tremendous.
- [57:27]
Mark Critchley
Wow. Which is a conversion rate of 5.7% and I just worked that out off the top of my head. We've got. Not got any show notes or anything.
- [57:34]
Matt Davis Adams
Well done. Yeah.
- [57:36]
Mark Critchley
I think Gibbs White's got nine. And then the next best is. He goes. Jesus with three. Wood has been a huge miss and the fact that he's back could be really important. I did not see that. I did not see that 30 win at Tottenham coming, despite how I've just got Tottenham the worst team in the league simply because I didn't think brothers were capable of racking up that number of goals in a game. It's just not been the way that they've. It's not been the story of their season so far. I think that's given them a huge. A huge chance of. Of getting out of this, but it's going to be nip and tuck right until the end. I'm sort of just back in the chaos theory of Tottenham going down because it feels like the most. I don't know, the most interesting outcome, but who knows, because it's so tight right down there at the minute.
- [58:16]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. Massive weekend of action coming up then at both ends of the table. That's where we're going to leave it for today. Enjoy the weekend's action. Thanks to Crit Chant, Tim and to producers Jay and John, and to you, of course, for listening as well. We'll be back again next week. For now, it's goodbye.
- [58:34]
Podcast Announcer
You've been listening to the Athletic FC Podcast. The producers were Jay Beale and John Rogers and the presenter was Matt Davis Adams. The executive producer is Adie Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts for free, including our dedicated club shows, Search for the Athletic in all the usual places. The Athletic FC Podcast is an athletic media company production and proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [59:10]
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- [59:40]
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- [60:25]
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