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- [00:01]
Matt
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- [00:44]
Mark Carey
Thy ticket, lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it? We with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right? Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [01:14]
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- [01:39]
Matt Davis Adams
Learn more@chase.com Sapphire Reserve cards issued by JP Morgan, Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval. The Athletic FC. Welcome to the preview from the Athletic FC. It's the show where we get you set for the weekend's Premier League action. This week we're looking ahead to Liverpool versus Manchester City. And please welcome my two podcasting pals for this week. Mark Carey is with us. How you doing, Mark?
- [02:09]
Mark Carey
Good, thank you, Matt. How are you?
- [02:11]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, I'm alright, thank you. We've got Jay Harris with us as well. You okay, Jay?
- [02:14]
Jay Harris
Yeah, I'm all good, guys.
- [02:16]
Matt Davis Adams
Good stuff, right? Later in the show we'll get into some of the other big matchups of match week 25. But first let's get to our feature presentation. So this fixture was the marquee matchup in the Premier League over the last decade or so. Liverpool out for revenge. After City won the reverse 30 back in November. Whilst these citizens are looking for their first league double over the Reds since 1937. Blimey. And maybe you remember that season listener Matt Busby lining up for Liverpool. The magnificently monikered Wilf Wilde leading city to a 5 nil win at Anfield. Different times Mark. Back in 2026 after 5 games without a win Liverpool bounced back against Newcastle last Saturday. What changed for Arnold Slot's side in that one?
- [03:01]
Mark Carey
I think quite simply they played against a side who was willing to go a little bit more toe to toe with them. And when those sorts of games happen for Liverpool often not always they come out on top. If you look at things over the last 18 months I think that it's been a theme of the season for Arnold Slot is talking about low blocks and how it is his job and Liverpool's job to try and overcome low blocks. But that's been the key thing that's frustrated them especially this season. They haven't been able to break them down in the way that they'd like and they haven't been able to put as much intensity into the game. But against Newcastle there was plenty of intensity from Newcastle and from Liverpool and it was a bit of a slog fest. They were able to kind of yeah go toe to toe. Go sort of punch for punch if you like. And Liverpool came out on top because there was more space to go at Newcastle had a go. They were the better side in the first 30 minutes. But the spaces were there for Liverpool to run into. You think about the second Ekitike goal. Kirke has just played the ball into space for Ektike to basically square up Malik Tiao and get past him. That hasn't been something that Liverpool have been able to and they've not been afforded that space in recent weeks. So you think about the Champions League for Liverpool and how many times they've. They've had similar sort of games where teams are willing to play a game of football if you like and not just sit in in a low block out of possession. And Liverpool have overcome Marseille, they've overcome Real Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt, Inter Milan to. To varying degrees in terms of the way that they've played. I think that to be honest it will be like that this weekend. Obviously Manchester City are astute in and out of possession. But you're more likely to see the pattern of the game maybe follow the Liverpool Newcastle game than maybe previous weeks where Liverpool have come unstuck against low blocks.
- [04:42]
Matt Davis Adams
Last week Jay kind Of felt like a throwback to last season for Liverpool, didn't it? Lots of free flowing football. A timely reminder of the quality they still possess ahead of Sunday's game. After what's been an up and down season so far.
- [04:55]
Jay Harris
Yeah, definitely. And I do think one thing I've not really seen people talk about about last weekend's game is, is that obviously I know Isak wasn't playing but there's still a lot of animosity and tension between those teams. So I wasn't that surprised that Liverpool reacted in the, in the manner that they did. Mark's already mentioned it, but I think it's actually two of Liverpool's goals come from sort of long balls into the channel and then it's recycled and Liverpool eventually create a goal scoring opportunity. The individual quality has never been in question. It's been about the composition this season and I do think Mark's already touched upon it. But we did see it in the spurs game. In the second half of that spurs game I can't tell you the amount of times Xavi Simons, Wilson Odebear, Dominic Solanki were sort of running through in counter attacking situations and so Liverpool should sort of take a lot of confidence from that. They've just come up against a team who gave them a lot of space on the break. Man, City really struggled with that last weekend so they should be thinking okay, we might have another opportunity here to get some points on the board.
- [05:52]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, as Jay alludes to there City chucked away a two goal leader at spurs last Sunday. Means there's six points adrift of Arsenal ahead of the weekend's action. Weird one mark yet to concede a goal in the first half of a Premier League match in 2026, but yet to score a goal in the second half so far this year.
- [06:10]
Mark Carey
Why?
- [06:10]
Matt Davis Adams
Why are they struggling to maintain that first half dominance?
- [06:14]
Mark Carey
The short answers I don't really know. I think it's an interesting sort of statistical quirk to be honest. I think it's been a theme of their their whole season. It's not just been the recent weeks in terms of just how much they've been stronger in the first half or relatively weaker in the second half. And I looked into the numbers on this and the goal difference in the first half. They're up by 21 goals in the first half and only five in the second half. And partly that might be because they, they obviously go ahead in the first half so there's maybe less need for them to, to chase the game. But there's definitely a theme, not just in recent weeks, but across the whole season. And it used to be with Manchester City that second halves kind of were them going through the motions because they'd maybe be two or three goals up in for the past five or six seasons aside maybe from the last campaign. And there'd maybe be a slightly sort of flat atmosphere because everyone knew both City and the opponent, that they were going to win the game and it was just going to be a formality. Now, teams maybe think because of the strength of the league, I suppose, as much as anything, the general strength of the league, that teams can have a go and maybe get themselves back into the game. As you mentioned before, Jay, I can sort of pass it on to you here, I suppose, of just how you wrote the game against Philip for Spurs City, that a tactical tweak as well meant that they. They were able to have a go and obviously get back into the game.
- [07:28]
Jay Harris
I think in the first half of that game last weekend, everybody thought it was over and done with. Spurs were playing horrendously. I was obviously in the stadium, but I believe on commentary, Gary Neville sort of described it as a charity match or, or like a youth team game. And it really did feel like that. Interestingly, Thomas Frank made sort of an enforced substitution at halftime. Captain Cristian Romero comes off with illness and he replaces him with Pape Matassar. So that changed spurs shape from 3, 43 or 5, 3, 2, depending on how you look at it, to a 4, 4, 2. And we should say this was a really narrow 4, 4, 2. That midfield was Xavi Simons, Pape Sar, Conor Gallagher and Ippa Zouma. So Xavi Simons can sort of roam around, but mainly plays in that left center pocket. But those other three players are central midfielders. You do not expect them. You do not expect to see them on the touchline. And I think the benefit of that was it just meant that Man City couldn't play centrally with as much freedom as they did in the first half. And then quite simply, if you look at what happens, particularly with Solanke's equalizer, it just comes from spurs being better and more aggressive at winning those second balls. And that's something they really struggled with in the first half. So what you were talking about City going through the motions, I think we saw that firsthand. They were tuna up, they were cruising, they got caught napping. Guardiola also made a couple of changes and I just don't think the substitutions he brought on were quite prepared for the intensity that spurs played out in the second half. Spurs were desperate in the second half and I think that's how they. They managed to turn the game around. But there's one final thing I wanted to touch upon which we probably shouldn't forget, man. City are still embedding new players into the team. It doesn't matter if you're as good as Antoine Semenya or Mark Gay, you still need to forge new relationships with your teammates, understand the way they move, how they like to receive the ball, all that type of stuff. And one thing I just double checked from the lineups, there were five players who started against spurs for City who either joined in the summer or in January. So even Ryan, 8 Nuri, that's only his foresight in the Premier League. So when you actually look at it like that, it doesn't really surprise me. There's that level of inconsistency because it's just not a settled team in the way it was in previous years under Guardiola.
- [09:39]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, and by the time they get to Anfield, they could be nine points behind Arsenal if the Gunners beat Sunderland on Saturday. Wednesday's FC had plenty of gabbing about the Gunners, by the way, if that's of interest to you. City have chased down Arsenal before, they'll back themselves to do it again. But it feels like a significant weekend. Right, Mark? I think we're all expecting Arsenal to beat Sunderland who aren't great on the road. So there's real pressure on Guardiola's side going into Sunday's game. Potentially.
- [10:06]
Mark Carey
Yeah. No, I agree. I think from an Arsenal perspective it'd just be another step. A bit like the, the game where they played against Leeds where it was just making sure that you have a convincing performance and a convincing win and just keep the pressure on. Just keep taking. Such a cliche, isn't it? Keep taking each game as it comes. But it does kind of feel like that. And obviously Liverpool getting a little bit of momentum now. If they can get a result against City, that would be a further dent in the. The chase that the City is trying to sort of put on Arsenal. And people have said it and I do agree that City just don't feel like the same winning Jay's point as well in terms of the consistency and bedding in together and understanding each other's game. I don't think they are the team that can put together 10 back to back wins now. So again, from an Arsenal perspective, you keep ticking those wins off. They've got a buffer already. They Just want to extend that buffer. But people say about the Manchester City game against Arsenal coming up towards the end of the season, that game could be, if not irrelevant, kind of redundant within the, the wider scheme of the season. If you know, Arsenal could afford to still lose that game against Manchester City if they continue to create more of a buffer. Yeah, Arsenal can still drop points. I know that Arsenal fans are nervous, rightly so, but I think they can still afford. Well, I know they can still afford to drop points and still not get caught. So I don't want to say it's Arsenal to lose because that does put even more pressure on them. But it's true that it's City who have to be the ones to chase and really put a strong winning back to back winning run together. And I can't really see that necessarily happening between now and the end of the season.
- [11:41]
Jay Harris
You know, you're allowed to say it's Arsenal's to lose and you won't get in trouble. Mark.
- [11:45]
Mark Carey
Yeah. It just feels like, you know, the narrative is that you're not allowed to put too much pressure on them, but it's the truth, isn't it?
- [11:52]
Jay Harris
Yeah. You don't support Arsenal, you've got no ties to them. If you want to put as much pressure on them as you can. Do you know what I mean? They're six points clear. They're obviously doing really well in the Champions League. So that pressure, it should be on them, they should sort of achieve. I think, interestingly, it's obviously been quite a big week psychologically for Arteta, you know, reaching the Carabao Cup Final. I think that's the first final they've reached since his debut season when they won the FA Cup. So you can look at it two ways from an emotional perspective. It's either going to be, it probably will be quite a raucous atmosphere at the Emirates on, on Saturday, but could there be a little bit of a, a hangover from sort of overcoming that, that hurdle in midweek? And then we also shouldn't, shouldn't forget, I know Sunderland's record away from home is, is pretty bad, but they gave Arsenal a lot of problems at a stadium. VL took the lead, then Arsenal made it 21 and it looked like they were just going to get over the line and Brian Broby scored that stoppage time equalizer. So there's probably a sense of, we know this team has sort of stung us in the past. We can't afford to be too complacent. So I'm sort of very intrigued to see how that plays out. So I don't think it's as simple as some people have made it out to be.
- [12:58]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, well, we shall get back to City's test at Anfield next and as is tradition, we will look into available personnel and where each side could maybe look to hurt each other.
- [13:12]
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- [15:50]
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- [16:01]
Matt Davis Adams
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- [16:11]
Sponsor Announcer
This is the Athletic FC podcast proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [16:16]
Matt Davis Adams
Hugo Ekatike Key against Newcastle for Liverpool is Quickfire double turning a deficit into elite comparisons betwixt he and Fernando Torres this week. Jake, can you see the similarities? Even if not, he's going to be key on Sunday, right?
- [16:30]
Jay Harris
Yeah, I can see that a little bit because they're both quite graceful, got good acceleration, can both come up with some quite inventive finishes. I don't watch Liverpool on as much of a regular basis as others, so I'm intrigued to see if if Mark thinks that they're or you can see the similarities between them. So I know sometimes there's like a tendency to compare players from previous series, but actually stylistically they might be completely different if that makes sense.
- [16:56]
Mark Carey
Yeah, I agree. I think the aesthetic of the Newcastle, the second goal that I mentioned before where Ekitike squared at Thiao and poked it into the far corner. I actually thought at the time, and I've since seen it online, that they did do a kind of a side by side video of the Fernando Torres goal. I think it was his first Premier League goal against Chelsea for Liverpool and it was kind of aesthetically similar. So I don't know whether when the comparisons were made, maybe last weekend, that it was kind of with that goal in mind rather than necessarily their skill set. But to your point Jay, they are both hugely athletic, they're strong, they're quick, they've got a good finish in them. So I think you can see the comparisons like any other striker. But I stick my neck out on the line and say I do think the ceiling for Ekitike is arguably higher I think that his wiry frame, he's able to be really good in tight spaces. Fernando Torres probably wasn't as good in tight spaces if I recall. Like his quick feet, he was just more of a really strong finisher who could accelerate when used to get beyond the last line. Whereas Ekitika, I think he's kind of really versatile in the sense that considering his height, I think he's got really strong close control and then in, in wider spaces as we saw in his previous club Frankfurt, that he's. He's really able to accelerate in wider spaces. And again the Newcastle goal that he scored, the second goal he scored shows that as well. So still really young but I probably, yeah, go as far as to say on a technical level he's probably got a higher ceiling than Torres.
- [18:20]
Jay Harris
Wow. Because. Because. Can I just double check, did Torres peak quite early? Because my sort of memory is that he sort of started to struggle with injuries by the time he was in his, I don't know, around 26, 27.
- [18:32]
Matt Davis Adams
Pretty much the day that he signed for for Chelsea that he started struggling with injuries and then he was never the same after that. Basically definitely did his best work at Liverpool I think. And actually Mark, one of the reasons why he was so good at Liverpool was his link up with Steven Gerrard. And there's sort of comparisons there as well. Right. With what Ekhet and. And Florian Virt have been doing together. Taking him a while to, to find his feet. But he's been great of late.
- [18:56]
Mark Carey
Virt has absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. You can really tell that he's. He's bulked up. I think he's been put on a training program to make sure he's just got a bit more muscle now to, to bounce off, bounce off defenders and press even more and make sure that he's actually putting a challenge in. At the start of the season he was kind of getting towards the defender then kind of backing out and realizing the size of the. The players he was coming up against and thinking I don't fancy that. I'm going to get absolutely knocked over here. Now he's actually able to have the conviction of a challenge out of possession and hold, you know, players off when he's got the ball as well. And, and obviously then that the extra sort of bit of confidence allows you to have that speed of thought to, to play the right pass. And he's often finding Hugo Ekatike. I looked into it earlier and they've. So no one has created more chances for Hugo Ekatike than Florian Verts in all competitions. And no one has created more chances for Florian Verts than Hugo Ekatike. So that in terms of the, the partnership together looking for each other, it's, it's definitely growing, if not really sort of well established now this season, which is, which is very good. I think that the two of them were brought in this summer kind of for different reasons, which makes sense that Florian Verts, as much as anything, was supposed to be the person to, to be the one to unlock those deep blocks. He hasn't done it, you know, the start of the season, but you saw against Newcastle, there was three bodies around him and he wriggled through it, wriggled through and, and passed it to Akateike to finish for the. What was the equalizer then. That's the sort of thing that he's able to do, operate so, so well in tight spaces. And then Hugo Ekitike, even though as I mentioned before, he's able to operate very well in tight spaces as well. He's the one to, to be the finisher, but also be sort of really strong in those transitional moments because Liverpool lost a lot of players in the summer that were so able to sort of run in behind and really stretch the opposition like a Nunez, like a Luis Diaz. So I think that the two of them together dovetailing as a partnership and sort of offering different skill sets if that carries on obviously towards the end of this season and then into next season as well. That's the sort of partnership and style of play that all Liverpool fans kind of thought that they were getting in the opening weeks, but it's just taking a little bit longer to become fully established.
- [21:00]
Jay Harris
Yeah, it's quite interesting that Wirt and Xavi Simons have both sort of had a bit of a turnaround in form since the beginning of the, the calendar year because they're obviously both in a very similar bracket, both very diminutive playmakers who have come from the Bundesliga, where I know Vert's probably performed at a higher level more consistently than Xavi Simons. But they were two, you know, two of the best playmakers in the division, sort of really struggled in the Premier League and clearly they have sort of needed a six month adaptation time. But obviously in this day and age you're not allowed that you have a six minute adaptation time. But it is good to sort of see both of those players now coming to the fore and showing people that you can excel in the Premier League even if you are of a smaller and slender frame.
- [21:43]
Matt Davis Adams
Well, speaking of Players who came from the Bundesliga. Omar Mahmouch on the score sheet for City in the week as they booked their place in the Carabao Cup Final at Newcastle's expense. Wonder Mark, if there's a case to start him more regularly in the Premier League, either alongside or without Erling Haaland. And also, would you agree with me that simply saying his name in an exasperated way is the best way to, to express frustration? Like, I'm always like, you know, if you lose your keys or something, oh, my, my moosh.
- [22:13]
Mark Carey
That's amazing. I have never thought of that, but I absolutely agree with you. I'm going to start employing that. That's completely throwing me and I am fully behind you on that one, Matt. So to answer the first question, I think it's. It's an important sort of distinction, as you say, either instead of or alongside Erling Harland. I'd be inclined to say more alongside than over Erling Harland. I mean, Harland's definitely having a dry patch. Isn terms of goal scoring. I looked into actually this week for another piece that I'm helping Sam Lee with, our Manchester City writer, and it's interesting that he tends to come out of the blocks, Erling Haaland really strong at the start of each season. This is going back to his time at Borussia Dortmund as well, and he's a goal scoring machine full stop. But it's actually sort of. There is a degree to which there's a pattern where he comes out of the blocks really strong, scores a hatful in the, let's say the first third of the season. Then he does start to just dip ever so slightly and then finishes strong. So it feels like maybe he's either in or coming out of that dip compared to his own levels, of course. So maybe it's just a case of getting more, more bodies around him, in which case Omar Mahmouche could be that player. He's only had three starts in the Premier League this season, so I think he's certainly deserving of more minutes. Obviously Haaland didn't play against Wolves recently and City did look good with all of those rotations up front with all their sort of technical players. Semenya has had an excellent start. I'd be more inclined to say maybe now I'm being exasperated myself. Oh my Mamu. Could be. Could be good to have maybe in the side alongside Haaland, just offer a little bit something different. Maybe just with his runs in a slightly different direction. Might just be a bit of A foil for Haaland as well and he's shown that he's able going back to Hugo Ekatike, he's able to work in a partnership. He worked so well with Ekitike Eintracht Frankfurt in previous seasons. So I wouldn't mind seeing the two.
- [24:02]
Matt Davis Adams
Of them together even though Haaland's been off the boil. Jay, they've got so much attacking talent, haven't they? Mark mentioned Semenya there as well. But, but Ryan Turkey has really sprinkled some stardust on the, on the Premier League this season. He's got to be one of the most fun players to watch.
- [24:16]
Jay Harris
I think he's probably got to be one of the best signings of the season. I mean if you didn't know how much he'd cost, you'd probably guess that he was double the price. I think it's 36 million euros with potential. 6 million euros in add ons in this day and age is an absolute steal. One thing I maybe didn't quite appreciate about him is that he's more two footed than I first thought and it's probably because way back at the beginning of the season he did that Rabola and I think Guardiola sort of said he needs to choose the right moment, when to show off and when to just play the ball. So the fact he was attempting a Rabona probably put in my head always quite one footed but I mean he scores that right footed goal against spurs last weekend which was, was excellently taken and there was a moment in that game where he just bamboozled Dragoshin and Romero. You've probably seen it where basically leaves them both on their backsides and Vicaria makes a ridiculous save. If that goes in, that's probably one of the goals of the season. I just think a player like that when they're two footed and can take you either way is so difficult to defend against and that just gives Man City. I mean when everybody's fully fit the idea that they can pick between Haaland, Mahmouche, Semenyo, Turkey, Doku Foden. There's probably others I've missed. That's just a frightening variety of attacking talent at your disposal and I can't wait to sort of see Turkey continue to push on and, and progress because I think he's, he's such, such fun to watch. One of those classic players who, he just makes you stand up and get off your seat because you never quite know what he's going to do and.
- [25:40]
Matt Davis Adams
We need that frightening for any defense mark, particularly one that is as decimated as Liverpool's has been this season, we're expecting Szoboszlai to be right back here. I mean that'll be an area that City will think they can exploit if so.
- [25:55]
Mark Carey
I think so, yeah. I think it actually might be with Jeremy Docu not able to play. I think it might actually be a a good option for, for Liverpool maybe even if everyone were fit because Silverslai can be the one to then also come inside a little bit more and the way that Manchester City like to kind of pack those central areas, he'd be an extra body in there as a midfielder, traditional midfielder rather than him obviously deputizing at that right back. But I do expect him to to be there and do those things as I mentioned in possession come, come inside which should be a positive. The only maybe negative is that with Mohamed Salah now back in the side often he maybe needs a foil of an overlapper or an underlapper to create some space for him especially against a side of the quality of Manchester City. I don't think that Szoboszlai will be that player just because that's not his game anyway. But if it were to have been Jeremy Frimpong had he been fit then that would have been a really good kind of right sided attack against a Manchester City line which is often quite high, isn't it? So you think about how they could have got in in behind in that regard. But then maybe Szoboslay again as maybe a deeper lying player to be able to play those balls over the top from a deeper position. Trent Alexander Arnold esque, if Manchester City are going to give Liverpool space and the high line for Salah or Ekatike to run in behind, maybe it could be a good thing. But in terms of him obviously not being a natural right back, he's deputized so well this season at the times when he has been there. It won't just be him I suspect who has to be the one to defend that right side. It should be the responsibility of Ryan Gravenberg probably as well to be the one to push alongside and make sure he's got protection and whisper it quietly. Mohamed Salah should be also a bit more defensively aware to help his fullback as well. But maybe that's for another podcast.
- [27:44]
Matt Davis Adams
All right, let's round this off then. Give me a prediction. Mark, what's going to happen on Sunday?
- [27:48]
Mark Carey
Oh, I mean with my data hat on I'm quite boring I think but I think it probably will be 1:1. I think that much like Liverpool against Arsenal recently, they will be cautious but try and be quite progressive when they can but not leave too much in behind. I can see both sides scoring. So I'm going to say one one.
- [28:07]
Matt Davis Adams
Jay, can you pick a winner?
- [28:08]
Jay Harris
I'm going to say. I'm going to say 2 2. And I promise you I was thinking that before Mark said one all. I get what Mark's saying but could you argue the other way that City sort of need to a point doesn't really do anything for man City so maybe they sort of have to go for it a tiny bit more.
- [28:23]
Mark Carey
Yeah. Could open the game up a little bit and then you start to get a bit of a back and forth.
- [28:27]
Jay Harris
Game and it would be a classic statement win.
- [28:30]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. And Pep Guardiola hasn't won a anfield in front of supporters before. Not much left for him to achieve. Let's see if he can do it on Sunday.
- [28:39]
Sponsor Announcer
This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.
- [28:43]
Jay Harris
Right.
- [28:43]
Matt Davis Adams
This is the part of the show where with the help of our partners Betfair, we show you how you can play in a different league this season. James Mackie's with us. James, your colleague Alex, conspicuous by his absence ahead of Leeds v. Forest later running scared clearly. But it's your lot that we're going to focus on today with Liverpool taking on Manchester City on Sunday. We can't really decide which way this one's going, can we? What does the sportsbook say?
- [29:07]
James Mackie
Yeah, look, huge game on Friday evening, Mat. But as you said, this is probably an even bigger game we'll have to see. But the Betfair sportsbook has the home side Liverpool as just the favorites of 13 to 10. Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against Manchester City, which is an astonishing stat really. They've also scored 10 goals in their last two home games. It just almost seemed like the shackles are off slightly for slotside. But I was saying to you just before we clicked the record that I just don't know what Liverpool are going to turn up. So we'll have to see. City are the slight outsiders at 64 to make it four wins in the last five games. And following their three nil win at the Etihad in November against Liverpool, Manchester City are looking to complete their first league double over the Red since 193637 season which is just astonishing. The draw is prized at 11 to 5 and this could be a real matchup between these two teams. But the last draw between them was at Anfield two seasons ago. So normally one of the sides do beat each other.
- [30:00]
Matt Davis Adams
It's a star studded fixture, that's for sure. Who features in the bet builder this week please?
- [30:04]
James Mackie
Yeah, for the bet builder this week. Three legs as usual. And we'll start with Liverpool's main man at the moment, Hugo Ekatike, who scored or assisted every 112 minutes in the Premier League this season. The best ratio by a Liverpool player in their first season at the club since Mohamed Salah in the 201718 season. So he's 10 to 11 to either score or assist on Sunday and he goes into the bet builder for City. Interestingly, only Manchester United's Bruno Fernandez created more chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League than Man City's Rancherki. He looks a brilliant addition to this City team, doesn't he? And he's 6 or 4 to either score or assist at the weekend. As you can tell, I probably think there's going to be goals for both sides at the weekend. So he's six to four to go in there to either score or assist like the Ekatike better the weekend. And finally I'm going for Rodri to be carded at 16 5. I don't think he's looked the same player since he's come back from his injury. Just looking at the recent stats, he's picked up four yellow cards and one red in his last five for City. So for him to be carded at the weekend and keep that run going. He came on for 20 minutes against Newcastle the other night and picked up one in the 91st minute. So he's 16 to five to be carded. So overall those three selections come together for around an 18 one. Bet Builder and the beauty of the score or assist and to be carded Marcus mentioned is they have safe sub attached to them. Meaning if those legs haven't won and those players come off, the player that replaced them carries on that leg of the bet.
- [31:22]
Matt Davis Adams
Awesome. Sounds good to me. Thanks James. Enjoy the game. We'll catch up with you soon.
- [31:26]
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- [31:30]
Matt Davis Adams
And now then, the race for Champions League football next season's heating up. The top five places expected to again secure qualification to Europe's elite competition. Sandwiched between Manchester City in second and Liverpool in sixth are Villa, Manchester United and Chelsea. Villa have only won one of their last four in the Premier League. They've lost to both Everton and Brentford in their last two at Villa park. Probably ruling them out of the title race. Now, the underlying numbers, Mark, have been a focus all season. I wonder if we're seeing a regression to the mean. These are words that are quite triggering for me, I've got to say. I only got a grade E in GCSE maths. I mean, triggering is as well, to be honest. Two trig adjacent for me. Where was I? Villa. Yeah. Not. Not helped by recent injuries to key players either.
- [32:18]
Mark Carey
No, I, I mean, I've got a bit of stick from Villa fans when I alluded to, to the unsustainability of their, their performances in both boxes, really. And I can understand why they pushed back a little bit because some of their, their goals scored from outside the box weren't always by luck, they were by design and they've crafted some really good opportunities and they've got excellent ball strikers. So I think that there's a healthy middle ground there as well. But obviously the winning streak that they were on was absolutely incredible. So naturally you can't sustain any sort of winning. You can't win every single game across the whole season. And they were really strong for quite some time this season. So maybe just a little bit of a dip, but I don't think it is just because of the underlying numbers and the expected goals. To your point, the injuries have been. They don't want those injuries in midfield that they've got. They've got so many and their midfield has been such a foundation for their success this season. I've seen them live a couple of times and Kamara has been excellent defensively. Just hoovers up any danger and just makes sure that any potential counter attack is nipped in the bud and then just gives it to Telemans, who's the complete tempo setter. He's always pointing to himself to say, give me the ball. He demands the ball, controls the game so, so well. He's often the one to play the most passes of any player on both sides in a typical game. And then John McGinn's always the trusted lieutenant who'll always do a job excellently and always put a shift in and exhaust himself often and be taken off after about 65, 70 minutes because he's done everything that he can do. So I think losing all of those for a bit of time is just unwelcome for Unai Emery and an Villa fans. But I think it's really good that Amadou Inanna looks like he's been training at the back end of this week, so that'll be a real timely boost to have him back and just have a bit more midfield solidity. I think Ollie Watkins, despite being out recently, I think he's back in training as well. So they're still sort of strong enough to keep this momentum going a little bit or regain a bit of momentum as you say, after. They've just not kept things up quite as much in recent weeks.
- [34:17]
Matt Davis Adams
Tough assignment for them this weekend. They're going to inform Bournemouth he won three of their last four. Andoni Iriola continuing to show his chops despite losing so many players. Kind of difficult to predict Bournemouth though, isn't it? Jay, which way do you see this one go?
- [34:31]
Jay Harris
I'm still going to give this to Villa. Obviously Douglas Suiz has come back and he, he did that pretty good. I know they lost to Brentford last weekend, but he performed pretty well. Obviously got Tammy Abraham back now and I think that just reduces the, the burden on Lolly Watkins. You know, Evangel, that move just didn't work out and I know Abraham's not played in the Premier League for a few years, but he still a striker of top level quality. And when you've got players of the, the individual quality of, of Morgan Rogers, then you're always going to be in a game. And so I'm just going to give this to Villa and I do think Emery is a fantastic tactician. He sort of always finds a way to get his team over the line. Like Mark said, sometimes the underlying numbers are not particularly good. I've actually done something on long range shots this week and I'll actually mention that because it's very relevant to spurs week. Man United and our colleague Conor o' Neill has written about Villa's prowess from outside the box. And it's 13 goals, I believe, which would only happen in, what was it, 0.03% of Premier League seasons. If you did that season over and over and over again. 0.03%. That is insane. Sorry to trigger you with numbers again and send you back to when you were 16 at college.
- [35:42]
Matt Davis Adams
It's fine. Let's move on though. Five points adrift on Villa, on Manchester United. Oh, another number. United have won their last three since Michael Carrick took charge. They faced one of his old clubs, another one of his old clubs, spurs at old Traff Saturday lunchtime. Jay's going to be in attendance for this one. Mark, in terms of United, how much of their improvement do you think can be put down to his change of system? I mean, I guess part of it is simply the fact that he's not Reuben Amarin.
- [36:09]
Mark Carey
Well, exactly that really. I think that some of it can be tactical and that's often my job. My role is to look at things from a tactical perspective, obviously from a number perspective. Sorry Matt, leave that to me. That's fine. But I think with all that being said, I think that there is a degree to which there's a lot of kind of intangibles that have also just improved since Carrick has come in. As you would expect, it's often the case, you know, there's the myth of the new manager bounce, but I just think everyone just sort of has a little bit more freedom, there's a better atmosphere and that obviously then feeds onto the pitch. And I do think while it might sound cliche, I think it's true. I think bringing Kobbie Mainoo back into the fold has been really helpful for the reasons that he is also an excellent player, but the fact that it's also got Bruno Fernandes back into the advanced position, getting the sort of square pegs and square holes. I think has been said this week of actually making sure that the best players are in the best positions. And I think at times for Bruno Fernandes he was playing passes from deeper areas where he was the one that you wanted to receive those passes and now he's back into those sort of advanced positions. I think is it 12 assists he's got this season and the all time Premier league record is 20. I think he's. I don't know whether he is on for that at the rate that he's going, but it's certainly. I'm sure he'll give it a good go that he looks as strong as he's ever been in the past 18 months. And then he's also then getting closer to the strikers, whether it's Brian Bermo or Benjamin Sesko then makes them look less isolated and sharper because they're able to play off quality players like him. So I don't know, I mean it's not rocket science when you say just creating a formation or a system that allows the best players to get into the best position. So I suspect throwing it forward to the spurs game that Thomas Frank will look to probably keep things solid defensively first and foremost, try and frustrate United, almost get them to ask the questions and maybe give them less space and to the point that you made before Jay, in terms of then having a counter attacking threat be the one to try and attract pressure and then spring forward maybe.
- [38:06]
Jay Harris
Yeah. So obviously spurs beat United. I think Four times in all competitions last season in the Carabao cup, twice in the league, and then obviously famously in the Europa League final. But the last time they were Old trafford, they won 3 nil. But Erik ten Hag and Ange postecogly were in charge. So believe it or not, that's only the beginning of last season. I know it feels like a. A different era. The sort of key thing for spurs is that they have always been better away throughout the course of the season. Thomas Frank tends to, you know, even if you go back to his time at Brentford, seems to do better when he's playing big six teams for various different reasons. I think he likes sort of tweaking his own tactical setup and being reactionary. Maybe them being the protagonist, Mickey Van de Ven should be back from injury. He's trained the last couple of days. The Christian Romero saga has been going on in the world of spurs this week, but he should be available. So that certainly immediately puts him in a better position than they were against Man City at the weekend. We've obviously seen Solanke come back, so I think spurs have a have a better chance of getting a point from this game than maybe this time, than probably than against Man City. I just sort of assumed they'd lose to Man City. But Man United coming to this game in such good form, such a good mood and at spurs it just feels like they're in a constant state of drama at the moment. So you just sort of can't. It's an important factor to acknowledge that spurs, the mood around them, the confidence is very low. So any setback they have in a game, they don't always deal with that particularly well. So I'm very intrigued to see how it plays out well.
- [39:35]
Matt Davis Adams
A point behind Manchester United are Chelsea. They travel to Wolves. Liam Rossinha looking to win four consecutive Premier League matches. We'll wait and see whether he goes for football boots on the touchline just in case his first touch should be required again. His predecessor, Enzo maresca, only managed one run of four wins in a row. Across his 57 games, he won five on the spin November and December 2024 on Racinha Mark, have you been impressed by his tal tactical flexibility he's made in game tweaks against West Ham and Napoli and went with the back five for the first time on Tuesday night.
- [40:11]
Mark Carey
Yeah, I have been impressed with him, I really have. Especially that Arsenal game. Just quickly going on. That in terms of the Carabao cup game, it was weird to sort of see the Criticism that he was given. Granted, yes, Chelsea lost the game and the tie overall, but I think maybe he hasn't got the respect he deserves in the opening weeks. Overall, I think that it was hindsight such a beautiful thing, isn't it that actually had he opened up an. I think he said this himself, like had he opened up in the. The first half and then got picked off 2 nil. Then the tie, much like the Manchester City Newcastle game, the tie is then over and the second half becomes a formality. So he's, he's clearly a real strategist. He's really, you know, really thinks about the, the game deeply and it say it almost came off. They were definitely in the tie up until the final few minutes. You could argue the final few seconds until Arsenal got the breakaway goal. So I do think to sort of, yeah, broadly answer your question, he's impressive with, with the sort of strategy that he's, he's taking. But I think because he's not a glamorous name, people maybe don't give him as much credit. I think going back to, to last weekend as well, there's still, as you would suspect, a few kind of Maresca traits in terms of the. The goal scored, which you'd expect there's a bit of muscle memory there. And myself and Liam Tharm did a piece on, on this that came out this week that showed about their back post goals. There was a couple of back post goals that were scored against West Ham and it's been a real theme of their season. They've scored, I think 10 maybe, maybe more now, but comfortably more than any other Premier League side. And they're really good qualitatively differently sometimes to get a bit more to the byline and whip it across and lock off the back post sometimes as we saw with Wesley Fafana being the one to play a kind of de Bruyne esque edge of the penalty area to the back post as well. They've got a real good way of attacking, a bit of variety to their game as well. So still using the foundation of Maresca's ideas, which were pretty solid in some cases but not perfect and kind of taking that to the next level. So I'll be interested to see how they get on next season as much as anything because the start they've made has been really strong.
- [42:09]
Jay Harris
Just one thing on Rosinia, because I really like him and I really want him to succeed for, for lots of different reasons. Firstly, because he's obviously like a mixed heritage black coach and that there's not enough of them. And I just find his journey from the fact that, you know, he sort of did his time in the lower leagues coaching with. With Derby and Hull City, etc, and he's got the opportunity. He has. He's English, I really, really like that. But something which I don't think enough people sort of talked about in the last 24 hours. I actually quite like the fact he swore Arsenal's coaching stuff because I think there's this perception that he's a really nice guy and he's sort of gone in and he's sort of, you know, he's been. He's part of the. The piece of the puzzle at Blueco and with Chelsea and Strasbourg, etc, and he's just the latest piece on the chessboard. And then obviously some of his press conference where he does maybe sound like he's on LinkedIn and he's a corporate speaker, I actually quite like that he showed that sort of. Don't want to say a dark side, but a little bit of aggression, which was controlled aggression and done in the right way, actually, quite like that. Just for sort of some people to think, oh, hang on a second. Yes, he's a very nice guy. He's polite in the way he goes about his business, but don't take him for a fool. So I'm not saying he needed to do that, but I hope that some people take a look back and sort of give him a bit more respect. Off the back of the.
- [43:18]
Mark Carey
I definitely agree. And just thinking about spurs as well, I know that from watching an interview with Thomas Frank. He said a quote that kind of stuck with me, which was, don't confuse kindness for weakness. And I think you can still be a kind, good person and still be a real strategist. Have the players kind of come with you along the journey. I feel like there's kind of an association between having a bit of bite behind you, maybe like an Antonio Conte, and then that being the only kind of ingredient for success.
- [43:44]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah. And. And for what it's worth, certainly from what I've heard from my colleagues at Chelsea, he. He is a very nice person, has made a real effort with everybody. He works at the club, which I know is something that, that people appreciate. Six into five doesn't go. Jay, who's going to miss out on Champions League football next season?
- [44:00]
Jay Harris
I was hoping you'd go to Mark first of this question. I'm gonna. I think Liverpool might miss out just because they've been inconsistent all season. I'm torn between Villa and United. Oh, actually there's five spots. Right.
- [44:13]
Mark Carey
Ah.
- [44:13]
Jay Harris
So I only have to choose one. There you go. That's my answer.
- [44:16]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay.
- [44:17]
Jay Harris
Yeah. Okay then, then I'll. Then I'll. I think United not being in European football probably helps them with injuries and fixture load up etc. So yeah, Liverpool's my choice.
- [44:28]
Matt Davis Adams
Okay. There's not really an excuse for United is. I mean Liverpool could miss out and win the Champions League and then get in it anyway, I guess. Mark.
- [44:33]
Mark Carey
But.
- [44:34]
Matt Davis Adams
But are they finishing sixth for you as well or is it Chelsea or United or even Villa?
- [44:39]
Mark Carey
Yeah, I think it's between Chelsea and Liverpool. If I'm able to sit on the fence and not say a single one that I might do. But I think it is between those I maybe go Chelsea just to be slightly different, but to the point that we're kind of working through each one. Arsenal and City will definitely will be. Villa have been losing some momentum, but I think that they've created a buffer so they should be fine. As you say, Manchester United have got positive momentum and they've, yeah, quote unquote, got no excuse because they've got no other. Other competitions. So that essentially leaves Chelsea and Liver, both of which are in Champions League football. They've got a lot of games coming up, but yeah, just of a flip of a coin, I'll go Chelsea.
- [45:17]
Matt Davis Adams
All right. It's Liverpool against Chelsea, by the way, at anfield match day 36. So that one could be key.
- [45:30]
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Matt Davis Adams
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- [47:33]
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- [47:39]
Matt Davis Adams
Let's go quick fire through the rest of the weekend's action. Lots of the middling sides playing each other this weekend. After back to back defeats, it looked like Brentford might be wobbling, but they won impressively at Villa park last time out. Newcastle without a win in three in the league. They go head to head at St James's park on Saturday evening. A six pointer in the race for Europe this Jay Brentford one of your specialist subjects. Be honest, did you think they'd do as well as they have done so far this season?
- [48:05]
Jay Harris
No I didn't and I've got no problem admitting that. Sometimes it's good to admit when you're wrong. Igor Thiago has adapted brilliantly to the Premier League in a way I wasn't quite expecting. Off the back of a season which was completely disrupted by knee injuries, I think Shard has been a little bit more consistent. I always said that Brentford's first choice defense, you know you've got set Vandenberg, Michael Coyote, Nathan Collins is much better than the, I guess the much loved sort of EFL era Brentford of Pontus Janssen, even Pinnock. So I sort of knew that their defense was good. But one quote I sort of keep coming back to about Brentford this season is from Keith Andrews introductory press conference and sat next to him was the club's Director of football, Phil Giles, who's been in charge for a decade. I'll just quickly read this out because obviously there's lots of lots of talk from Myself included, about whether it's the right decision to appoint Keith Andrews. And Phil Jao said it's more risky to go and get a coach we don't know from a club where the environment might be different or maybe people around them made them successful. This is actually quite a low risk appointment because I know how good Keef is now. At the time I thought, fair enough, I can understand that. But comparing Keith Andrews to some of the other names who are possible candidates to replace Thomas Frank, like Francesco Farioli who just come from Ajax, I think, okay, that's. That's quite a bold and punchy statement. It doesn't look like that at all now. I think they've been proven completely right. They had a winning formula, they didn't rip it up. There could have been a temptation to. So, yes, I'm biased because I really enjoyed my time covering Brentford, but the way they've seamlessly transitioned from one long serving head coach to Keith Andrews is quite remarkable.
- [49:43]
Matt Davis Adams
Yeah, and Keith Andrews must wake up every morning and thank the Lord that he didn't get the MK Dons job. Sandwiched in between Brentford and Newcastle, Fulham and Everton, they face off at Craven Cottage on Saturday afternoon. They're level on points, 9th and 10th respectively. Mark, is this the ultimate Saturday 3pm fixture? Which way is it going to go and why is it 1 nil? Jimenez brackets P78 yeah, well, it's interesting you say that.
- [50:09]
Mark Carey
It feels like it's going to be low scoring. First of all, I deferred to my match prediction mod here, which is something that we, we often, we run it on site actually every week. And I came out the blocks pretty strong and I've leveled out a little bit in terms of my statistical simulation. But my statistical simulation suggests it's going to be a 1:1 draw, this one, which kind of feels about right. If not a 1 nil, then it feels like a 1 one. That being said, Fulham don't do that many draws this season. I actually looked into it and only Brentford had fewer draws than Fulham. Fulham have only got four this season, Brentford with three. You think about Fulham this season. Since mid December, only Arsenal, Manchester United and Brentford, funnily enough, have got more points. So they are one of the most informed teams in recent weeks. So I think Funnel could still, you know, carry on that momentum. Obviously they'll be at home for this one, but Everton, they're so, so difficult to beat and it's not always the case that they're always trying to or able to win games, but they've only lost one in the last seven as well and David Moyes just makes them. You know, there's never a really big score line that Everton go down by, so they're always in games up until the latter st the game as we saw in their most recent game as well. So all of that being considered, it does feel like a one one to me.
- [51:23]
Matt Davis Adams
Well, their most recent game was against Brighton. They take on Crystal palace at the weekend the M23 Derby. It's at the Amex on Sunday. More palace batter on Thursday's episode of FC by the way, what did you make of that transfer window? Trolley Dash Jay They've ended up spending £83 million on Jorgenstrand Larsen and Brennan Johnson. Brighton sped spent not quite 2 million quid on Pascal Gross, who had the better window of the two.
- [51:50]
Jay Harris
Obviously in terms of activity, it might be tempting to say Crystal palace had the the better window, but it's obviously also important to retain talent and the fact that palace lost their captain and best central defender in Marque. I know Mateta is still at the club but that whole fiasco obviously missing out on McNeil on deadline day. So it feels like it was quite, quite a traumatic transfer window for them and it's going to take a little bit of time to to settle down. I know they did try and sign some extra defensive cover and they didn't get that over the line. There were I think some very tentative talks about them taking Ethan Pennock from Brentford, but it didn't go anywhere. So you look at that big shiny number of £83 million or whoever it was and you might be tempted to say palace had the better window. But I think for everything else that happened in it with Kalasna's announcement that he's leaving the Macclesfield defeat, I think 2 million pound on Pascal Gross means Brighton had the better window.
- [52:41]
Matt Davis Adams
A couple of big games down at the bottom to finish with Leeds v. Forest under the lights on Friday night, producer Jay asks, how are you feeling about this one Matt? I would say it's nice for Forest to go first for a change because we usually play and catch up by playing on Sundays. But I am quite concerned that Morato is going to be playing at left back. Stefan Ortega will probably be in goal. He hasn't played at all this season, but it does feel mad to me given the respective moods around the club from inside and outside that the two teams are on the same number of points. So hopefully from my perspective Forest could get something there Friday night. The other big one at the bottom Mark sees West Ham go to Burnley Must win, surely for the Hammers. Are we past the stage of must win for Burnley now?
- [53:25]
Mark Carey
I think so, I think so. I think that it was similar the last time that they came up. They've got some good players, they've played some decent football at times, but they are just terrible in both boxes. And again, I've said a couple of cliches on this episode, but it does just feel like, you know, some terrible defending and some really poor finishing means that you're going to to be cut adrift, really. I think, yeah, they don't have enough to stay up. I think that broadly speaking, they need to think of a better way to attack the league if and when they come up next. Because the past couple of times that they've tried it, it they've maybe tried to do it in different ways. This time has been slightly different from the Vincent Kompany doing their best impression of Manchester City on the ball. That didn't work either. Do they go back to the sort of the Sean Dyschy and just make sure that you have really strong defense first attitudes? Maybe that might be better. But each time that they've come up, they haven't really made a fist of it. So they need to think of a better way if being the crucial word there, they are able to come up.
- [54:26]
Matt Davis Adams
Against all right, well, good news for Scott Parker. That'll be the Bayern Munich manager this time next season at least, right? That's about all we've got time for today. Loads of great games to look forward to this weekend. My thanks to Jay, to Mark, and to producers Jay and John, but mostly to you for listening. Enjoy the football and we'll catch up with you soon.
- [54:46]
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- [55:18]
Mark Carey
Foreign.
- [55:21]
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