Matt Davis Adams (2:47)

The Athletic FC Podcast Network hello, I'm Matt Davis Adams. Welcome to the preview on the Athletic FC this week we're focusing on Manchester City versus Liverpool before setting you up for the big fixtures elsewh Joining me today are the Athletics senior data analyst Mark Carey. Hey Mark.

Mark Carey (3:19)

Hello.

Matt Davis Adams (3:20)

And data writer Tom Harris is with us too. How you doing Tom?

Tom Harris (3:23)

All good, Matt, thank you.

Matt Davis Adams (3:24)

All right then, let's get into the big one. Both Manchester City and Liverpool were in action midweek. Pep Guardiola's side eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid losing 63 on aggregate whilst Arna slots Reds were held to a 22 draw by Aston Villa at Villa park in the Premier League. Let's check in with both the Athletics, Manchester City writer Sam Lee and Liverpool writer James Pearce who were watching their respective sides on Wednesday.

Mark Carey (3:51)

There was genuine positivity after City beat.

Tom Harris (3:53)

Newcastle 40 at the weekend. It was the best they played in.

Mark Carey (3:56)

Ages, the best they played all season.

Tom Harris (3:58)

And look, although after the first leg.

Matt Davis Adams (4:01)

Against Real Madrid last week everyone thought.

Mark Carey (4:03)

Okay well this tie is over.

Matt Davis Adams (4:04)

The Newcastle game did give a bit.

Tom Harris (4:06)

Of hope that okay look, if Madrid.

Matt Davis Adams (4:08)

Have an off night and City have their best night then you know, maybe someone could change. And then that was basically dash within four minutes. First one for Ky Mbappe to Chase. He's in behind. He's l goalkeeper and he scored.

Mark Carey (4:20)

Feels like back to square one on the positivity front.

Matt Davis Adams (4:22)

It didn't seem like that fight was there tonight. And I'm sure it will be when.

Mark Carey (4:26)

It comes to the Liverpool game.

Tom Harris (4:27)

But even when they have played well.

Mark Carey (4:28)

It'S not been enough over 90 minutes. Yeah, they might have played well for 45 minutes, for an hour it's not been enough. And against Liverpool they're going to have to play well for the whole thing, which is not something they've done too much at all all season. Jota and S line the center Salah skips away from Dean. This is Trent Alexander Arn and courtesy of a huge deflection, Alexander Arnold. Liverpool back level now. An entertaining 22 draw with Aston Villa. But real sense of frustration for Arnold Slot's side.

Tom Harris (4:59)

They were left kicking themselves.

Mark Carey (5:01)

It was a game they really should have won. Some glaring misses in front of goal.

Matt Davis Adams (5:04)

Not least a nightmare moment for Darwin Nunes.

Mark Carey (5:07)

It felt more like two points dropped than a point gained for Slot's side.

Matt Davis Adams (5:12)

But I think the important thing for Slot and he touched on this in.

Mark Carey (5:15)

His press conference, he said we can't.

Matt Davis Adams (5:16)

Allow this affect us.

Mark Carey (5:17)

The fact that we've now had a couple of games recently where we've felt like we didn't get what we deserve. But they're still in an unbelievable position.

Matt Davis Adams (5:24)

And of course they'll be facing a.

Mark Carey (5:26)

Wounded man City side on Sunday. Liverpool haven't won at the Etihad in the Premier League since November 2015.

Matt Davis Adams (5:32)

That was Jurgen Klopp's first trip to.

Mark Carey (5:34)

The Etihad as Liverpool manager.

Matt Davis Adams (5:36)

You know, it hasn't been a happy.

Mark Carey (5:37)

Hunting ground for them over the years.

Matt Davis Adams (5:38)

It's another momentous day in the context.

Mark Carey (5:41)

Of this title race.

Matt Davis Adams (5:44)

Sure is. So after back to back draws away from home in the Premier League for Liverpool, the gap to Arsenal stands at eight points. The Gunners do have a game in hand. Mind you, the big question then Mark, is this just a blip for on the slot side or have you got growing concerns over how they've been playing in recent weeks?

Mark Carey (6:05)

Yeah, I think that the performances have been okay for Liverpool. I think Liverpool fans kind of knew that this was going to be a bit of a tough period. I think they've had two tricky away fixtures against Everton and Aston Villa. So you know, they've shown resilience to not lose either of those away games. So they just need to take the point in each of them and keep chipping away at the top of the table. To be perfectly honest.

Matt Davis Adams (6:25)

Yeah. James said that it felt like two points dropped. I mean that's maybe the Liverpool perspective on it, isn't it? If you look at it from a neutral standpoint, you'd say a game against Aston Villa at home is difficult, whoever you are. So maybe respect the point.

Mark Carey (6:39)

I think. So I think James mentioned the Nunes miss. Obviously that's going to be a big talking point. But I think looking at their expected goals, I think they, they should have still deserved to win. I think that obviously expected goals being the quality of chances they created. Liverpool put up expected goals of 2.5 in this game and that's the most that they created without winning in the Premier League this season. So I think the numbers suggest that they should have won. I watched the game back and I felt that Liverpool were a little bit disjointed at times on the left hand side, they have no Cody Gakpo through injury and Luis Diaz didn't start which meant that Robertson was high and wide on the left hand side and it was Alexis Michalis who was dropping him more in build up on the left hand side. So they were doing things a little bit differently. So if Diaz starts on the left hand side as we expect him to against Manchester City, I think there'll be kind of more balance to the way that Liverpool play at the weekend. I think that one of the main concerns, I think for Liverpool, which from the Aston Villa game, which has been a bit of a theme this season, they've been a bit weak in defending crosses as well. So we saw for the Ollie Watkins goal, Liverpool didn't deal with the cross well enough. They also conceded from the free kick. So more in a dead ball situation, they didn't do well with that. And you think about last week as well against Everton, they didn't deal with the James Tarkovsky goal in terms of the cross that preceded it. So it has been a theme of, of Liverpool this season and not dealing very well there. So you think that against Manchester City if Erling Haaland is fit enough to play that he's someone who thrives off back post crosses and the delivery that Manchester City, when they're all fit and firing can deliver, that could be a bit of a key weakness. I, I think broadly speaking, to answer your question, you do take the point away. Aston Villa, a strong side, especially given the context of when they're playing at an evening. Kakoff can sometimes be a little bit trickier. You move on, you extend the lead at the top, albeit by one point and sort of get yourself ready for what is going to be a tough couple of weeks or at least one week against Manchester City and Newcastle City.

Matt Davis Adams (8:30)

Then Pep Guardiola said nothing is eternal after his side were thoroughly outclassed and dumped out of the Champions League. Tom, why didn't they struggle to, to build on what was such a positive against Newcastle at the weekend?

Tom Harris (8:43)

Yeah, I mean as Sam alluded to, it's not the first time they've taken two steps back after a step forward this season. I think the Newcastle game was very encouraging like you said, for plenty of reasons. But number one was the performance of Nico Gonzalez in the midfield. I think he's a massive improvement on the physicality in terms of out of possession. You know, there are quite a few kind of long legged tackles and being in the right place at the right time, which we've not seen a lot of this season from the likes of Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic kind of filling in in that position. But also, I mean there were some brilliant stats in possession as well. He was the first Premier League midfielder to make over 100 passes on his debut in the competition. 97% completion rate was also the highest. There were also 15 passes into the final third as well. So we saw quite a few times he was kind of moving forwards and popping those passes in to kind of fill foden in those dangerous areas where he can then go and attack the edge of the box. So I think he brought a lot to that game in terms of the out of possession and in possession. And we've heard Guardiola himself kind of lament, lamenting the fact that this City team can no longer string together 20, 25, 30 passes in the opposition half control games and make it so that City don't have to engage in these 1v1 man to man physical battles with these teams like Newcastle, who will beat them for physicality and strength and power in the midfield. They managed to achieve that against Newcastle that they didn't against Real Madrid because you know, I think there were a lot of things that went wrong before the game. Obviously the Haaland injury was a big one. There was the early goal, there was a John Stones inj. There was the kind of confidence issue as well of City having been stung by Real Madrid just a week before that and then going in and having to play with the ball, but having to also be very, very careful knowing that they can get hit the other way. I think it was a bit of a perfect storm and when you meet players like Mbappe and Vinicius in that kind of form, they. They just couldn't really deal with it.

Matt Davis Adams (10:37)

You mentioned Harland. They're obviously a massive miss in Madrid. I guess it'll be crucial for City's chances that he's back on Sunday. Not just because of his obvious goal scoring ability, but the. Even if he's not that involved in the game, he's occupying defenders.

Tom Harris (10:52)

Yeah, there was really good piece on site by Sam who you heard from before talking exactly about that and the kind of. Yeah, just his presence and keeping defenders occupied and kind of on their toes. I don't think that City were really had a foothold in that game to get someone like Mahmou into it because he's a player who kind of thrives on getting on the ball but then also making those moves in behind after combination play. And I just don't think he was able to get close to kind of possession moments at all from City in that game. But yeah, I think when you look at how City approach games like this and contrast it to Real Madrid, you know, Madrid. Ancelotti has always made a big point about giving his attacking players a lot of freedom to interchange, to rotate, to kind of rely on their talent to get out of these, kind of find these solutions and come up with these moments. I think City obviously rely on their structure and I think when their structure doesn't work, it means that it's harder for their kind of superstar players, the likes of De Bruyne, Foden, Haaland when he's in the team, to kind of come up with those moments on their own back because, you know, they need the structure to bring the moments to them.

Matt Davis Adams (11:59)

Well, James touched on the fact that Liverpool have only won one of their last 15 Premier League away games against Manchester City. It's a damning statistic mark, but if they're ever going to put that right, it's going to be this weekend, surely.

Mark Carey (12:11)

I think so. I never fully subscribed to those historical stats in terms of how much it then affects the weekend's games because I'm sure that the players don't stand in the tunnel thinking, oh, we've not won here since 20 whatever. But I think, you know, it's just going to be the, the team thinking about what their tactical setup is going into that game. So I think you're right. I think it is going to be as good a chance as any for them to win at the Etihad. I think that the difficulty is despite, you know, what Tom was saying, I know that you mentioned about Nico Gonzalez as well, that if we take the Newcastle performance only at the weekend just gone, you think, okay, Manchester City are showing some green shoots of recovery with a little bit more foundation substance to it this time because it's actually players and a slight shift in the way that they're. They're approaching things rather than a false dawn, maybe after a couple of good performances before the transfer window. But then if they perform similar to how they played against Real Madrid, maybe in both legs to a certain extent, specifically because they're playing against Liverpool, who are so devastating on the transition that you think, okay, well, yeah, it is Liverpool's best chance. I don't think there'll be too much of a mental block in the fact that Liverpool haven't been too successful at the Etihad in recent years to sort of stop them from really putting in a good performance. But, you know, as I mentioned, Liverpool haven't been wholly convincing in recent weeks. But I think when you're playing against a team who's maybe a little bit more likely to go toe to toe with you, those gaps will maybe open up in certain spaces where, as I say, Liverpool in transitional moments are as devastating as anyone in Europe.

Matt Davis Adams (13:39)

In terms of City. It's a slightly different feel, Tom, isn't it, to what we've seen from this game in recent seasons? 17 point gap between the sides. So not a title decider. I mean, they've got to be up for this one, haven't they? They got to shrug off the disappointment of midweek because they're their own champ. League qualification is far from secure.

Tom Harris (13:56)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, they could be in sixth if they fail to win this game and other results go against them. But yeah, I do get the feeling there's still a little bit of needle in this contest leftover from some of these title races that we've had. We've seen some really big battles that the etihads in recent seasons between these two sides and I think the sight of Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander, Arnold Alisson van Dijk turning up is going to get the best out of these City players and the fans. So, yeah, I think it's been quite an exhausting couple of weeks really for City in terms of the games that they had to play and the results that they've had to suffer through. But I think this is exactly the kind of motivation and the challenge I need just for one kind of big push before the fixtures start to thin out a little bit.

Matt Davis Adams (14:40)

All right, well, after the break, we'll get into where both teams will look to hurt each other. When I started podcasting, it felt like I had to figure everything out myself. Booking guests, figuring out rundowns, editing the show and publishing it. It seemed like the list of to dos got bigger and bigger. And when you're starting off with something new, it seems like that just happens. Finding the right tool that not only helps you out, but simplifies everything can be such a game changer. And for millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in the US from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started. Get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store to match your brand style, accelerate your content creation, Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you, Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customer are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into a With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com theathlet go to shopify.com theathletic shopify.com theathletIC this podcast.

James Pearce (16:24)

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Matt Davis Adams (17:21)

Omar Mahmouch showed what he was capable of in Manchester City's four nil victory over Newcastle. He scored a hat trick in barely more than half an hour. Aston Villa had plenty of joy down Liverpool's right hand side on Wednesday. Tommy expecting Pep to target this area. Will Mamish be playing off the left?

Tom Harris (17:39)

Yeah, I think it depends on Haaland's availability because obviously I think Mahmouche will have to play in that centre forward role if Haaland is out. But I do think more generally speaking, that left hand side is where City have done a lot of really good attacking work this season, especially when they can get Josko Gvardiol up there in support as well. I mean, Mark will have heard me banging on about any of this in the office quite a lot this season, but I just think they're so much better when Gvardiol has that freedom to make those overlapping underlapping runs. We've seen games and there was the game against Aston Vill Villa back in December, I believe, where Gvardiol was kind of tied to the back three because there were injuries in the defense and it was Jack Grealish kind of on the left kept receiving the ball. And because Gvardiol couldn't get forward, he was just constantly left two on one and really kind of missing that support from his fullback. But I think Mahmouche has shown that he can link up well with with Gvardiol in terms of his movement. His his debut in the Premier League against Chelsea. There were a lot of encouraging signs that those two can coexist on that left hand side. A few nice runs from out to in Moosh to kind of drag Rhys James into the middle and open up that space for Gvardiol to attack around the outside. I think Savinho is a good option there as well. He's been very good at kind of driving to the byline and standing up those crosses to the back post that Mark was mentioning before for Erling Haaland if he's there. So yeah, I think there are options there and I think if you can double up with, you know, your most dangerous attacking players really in Josko Gvardi or Savinho Mahmouch on Trent Alexander Arnold, I think that's the kind of thing that City will be looking to do.

Matt Davis Adams (19:12)

Mark Tom mentions Alexander Arnold there, his attacking prowess on show. In midweek he scored Liverpool's equalizer. He got the equalizer at the Etihad last season too. So he's going to be a key feature in this game.

Mark Carey (19:24)

Absolutely. I don't think we need to spend too much time talking about the onboard qualities of Trent Alexander Arnold. He's been coming in sort of running in those half space areas a little bit more this season, which is how he got the goal against Aston Villa as well. But I think from Liverpool's perspective, the out possession side of things in terms of defending with Trent Alexander Arnold might be something to think about. It's something that Arne Slot is fully aware of and he did the same against Bournemouth and has done it against Aston Villa as well to a certain extent where he's pushing Ryan Gravenberg from midfield across towards the right hand side and he's sometimes playing as an auxiliary right back to essentially help Trent Alexander Arnold and support him in those out of possession moments. So when you see him shuffle across, you'll maybe start to empty the midfield ever so slightly. But I think it is interesting to see that Slot is fully aware of that fact. And he said as well in the press conference after the Bournemouth game going back a couple of weeks that Mo Salah is very good at a lot of things but tracking the opposition fullback is not one of them. So he's clearly saying he needs to give the support to Alexander Arnold from midfield. But I think it's interesting as well then that by doing that and keeping Salah higher he's then maybe going to pin the opposition fullback back a little bit. So maybe Gvardiol might not get forward quite as much because he knows the threat of Salah willing to run in behind. And as I mentioned before we know how strong Liverpool are in those tracks. Transitional moment and with the pace of Salah especially against Manchester City's high line saw it only midweek how high their line was and how the the pace of Mbappe was able to exploit it that there's a bit of push and pull from both sides. So you think about how strong one is in in possession and how the others maybe could be exploited out of possession. I think it will be a key battle. Yeah.

Matt Davis Adams (21:02)

On that side we've mentioned Vario might have to be a bit of a reshuffle in the city defense. John Stones hobbling off early at the Bernabeu could join Manuela Kanji on the sidelines. What. What solutions can can pep Tom defensively.

Tom Harris (21:15)

Yeah. Something he perhaps had to deal with all season really he's been getting a bit fed up with it I think in his post match press conferences in terms of yeah not only having to rotate these players but as. As I kind of alluded to before the implications that has further up the pitch because it means players like Gvardiol can't get forward as freely. It means that you know, you have to play a kind of natural right back on that side rather than Rico Lewis to invert to get superiorities in the middle. There's always all these kind of dynamics going on but yeah, just looking at the squad available I think Ake has to start alongside Ruben Dia as in the middle and then Gvardiol has to be on the left and I think maybe obviously you could play Rico Lewis on the right but I think Kusanov is probably a good option on that on and in that right back slot to allow Gvardiol forward. And I think you know it has been a bit of a baptism of fire really for Kusanov obviously that debut against Chelsea he was up against Isaac barely a week later. Had to deal with Vinicius Santiago Bernabeu in midweek but I think he dealt really well with it. I think he was. You know, obviously there were times that Vinicius got past him because that's what Vinicius does better than anyone in the world, really. But I think Kusanov showed a lot of character there. He showed a lot of grit and determination and the kind of physicality to keep up, you know, playing that position right back, which isn't something he's done before. So obviously it's a risk playing him out there, but I think it brings solidity. But I also think it brings, you know, the best out of Guardiola on the opposite side.

Matt Davis Adams (22:39)

Yeah, absolutely. Brutal start for Kuzanov. Might not get any any easier here either. Albeit Mark Diego Jota and Darwin Nunez. Wasteful in midweek. So there. Cody Gakpo's potential return will give Kuzanov more headaches but also help ease the reliance on Mo Salah, who's been utterly ruthless and brilliant this season.

Mark Carey (23:00)

He has, yeah. Again, it's something I don't need to expand too much upon because everybody knows it so well in terms of Mo Salah. But I think, yeah, you're right that Jota, quite uncharacteristic, I think, from Jota. He's normally such a clinical finisher, but he definitely didn't have his shooting boots on against Aston Villa. I think there was one where he opened his body up and you could just imagine it curling into the top corner, at least on target. And he opened his body up far too much and it went out for nearly a throw in at the end. But I think Gakpo might be touch and go to start or to get in the squad. Looking at Arne Slott's press conference, I think he said he hadn't trained with the team in the past couple of days. So you maybe even expect Luis Diaz to start on the left, keep Jota up front and obviously Salah on the right hand side. I feel bad for Darwin Nunes. Obviously it is a narrative that dominated things midweek. I think he's going to be little more than an impact sub substitute for the final few. Unless obviously something drastic changes, I think he will be resigned to being a substitute. I don't think he'll be trusted in these bigger games for Liverpool. I think, you know, the fact that Mo Salah has been so ruthless, I think it obviously is intentional from the team. I think the whole system is set up to get the best out of Salah so that he can thrive as he does of being the main goal scorer. I think obviously Liverpool do have goals across the forward line at the very least, but also have the potential of more goals from from midfield. I think that in recent weeks, Dominik Szoboszlai has been in excellent form in and out of possession, right up to getting into the attacking third. It's been something that Slot has spoken about since the start of the season, that Szoboszlai could and should be getting more goals and popping up in the box more often with a bit more sort of clinical finishing. So I don't think Liverpool will be concerned about where the goals might come from at the weekend. It'll just be more of a case of how they can actually work those openings against Manchester City City.

Matt Davis Adams (24:51)

And that leads us on nicely to tactical tweaks for both teams. Tom, how are you expecting Pep to try and fix City's out of possession problems?

Tom Harris (25:00)

Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of work to do. It's. This kind of thing doesn't happen overnight and Pep's trying to. Been trying to do it all season. But yeah, a few of the things we saw in that Newcastle game, maintaining possession a little bit better. You know, as Pep said, kind of the 20, 25 passes in the opposition half, I need to try and start doing that again just to give them a little bit more control in these games. But yeah, I think that one of the worst we saw really from that Real Madrid game was just how disjointed their high press was. I think there were times when the front went and the back four didn't push up with them and vice versa. I mean, if you look at the first goal, Raul Asensio has so much time to pick out that ball over to Kylian Mbappe and the high line is there from City, so it doesn't match up. You know, if you're not going to press a player who's going to play the pass and don't push your line up, you know, things like that. Just the kind of coordination across the team. It's all stuff again, which isn't going to be fixed overnight, but things which hopefully City will, will be taking lessons from.

Matt Davis Adams (25:56)

So City will be taking lessons from it. Mark. But have Madrid maybe provided a blueprint for Liverpool in terms of exploiting those, those fragilities out of possession for City?

Mark Carey (26:06)

I think so. I think Tom absolutely hit the nail on the head in terms of City's high line, the whole point. And I bang this drum so often on so many different podcasts that if you have a high defensive line, then you have to drop off if there's not pressure on the ball and the Asensio goal is just a perfect example of do either one or the other but don't do neither. For such an elite level side it was so obvious that that was what they needed to do was just drop off a couple of yards and Ruben Diaz had that diving header to try and get something on it and if there'd have been a couple of yards difference there you'd think he maybe would have stopped things at source. So I think with Liverpool I think you think about the I mentioned it before in terms of the transitional ability of anyone within their team but we've seen so often with Virgil van Dijk playing those raking balls to Mo Salah if City do press them slightly higher and they keep that high line Salah has obviously the pace and the tenacity to be able to get on the end of a long ball. Or you think maybe have Trent Alexander Arnold more on the ball. I know we mentioned him before but have him more on the ball in build up maybe get him slightly more central in the half spaces within Liverpool's early buildup and then he can play raking passes either over the top or maybe diagonals to the far side as well. So I think that will be key especially as you say learning from from what Manchester City's weaknesses are. I think that obviously the midfield will be a key battle. I know that's kind of true of most games but I think especially here given that it's been one of Liverpool's biggest strengths this season and one of City's biggest weaknesses as well. I think that despite me saying about Ryan Gravenberch making some really good selfless actions in terms of defensively helping out on the right hand side he's maybe not been quite as dominant in recent weeks in possession. I think teams have stifled him a little bit specifically the Everton game I'm thinking of but I think Alexis McAllister has been quietly outstanding in in recent weeks all season really biting into challenges. His defensive tenacity is so, so impressive. I think he's potentially underrated outside of the Liverpool fan base he's he really keeps things ticking along nicely. So I think Liverpool's midfield will be key in this game and of course I mentioned it before in terms of the transitional element but just to put some numbers to it if you've got two data people would be foolish not to use more numbers in this podcast but Liverpool have had 3.8 direct attacks per 90. Now this is a proxy of counter attack only Newcastle have registered higher in the Premier League this season, quite clear that that's what they look to do a lot and it's something that City have been weak on this season, especially of being played through far too easily when they do lose the ball in high areas. So quite a lot to think about there, I suppose, all across the pitch. Knowing it is one thing, but being able to exploit it is another.

Matt Davis Adams (28:42)

All right, as we round off our chat on this game then, let's have some predictions. Mark, what do you think is going to happen on Sunday?

Mark Carey (28:48)

I think Liverpool will edge it, but they haven't been the strongest defensively. They've conceded five goals in the past three games as well. So I think it will be tighter than maybe people expect. But I'm going to go with 2:1 to Liverpool.

Matt Davis Adams (29:01)

Okay Tom, how are you feeling?

Tom Harris (29:03)

Yeah, I'll be optimistic, which might be foolish, but I'll go for a high scoring draw. 2 2. But as you say there's with that Real Madrid game, one thing can happen in the first 10 minutes and it can be a completely different situation story.

Matt Davis Adams (29:15)

Yeah, well hopefully goals are plenty then at the Etihad 4:30 kickoff UK. Time for that one on Sunday.

James Pearce (29:29)

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Tom Harris (29:41)

Waiting.

James Pearce (29:42)

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Matt Davis Adams (30:27)

Arsenal will be looking to pile the pressure on Liverpool when they host West Ham on Saturday afternoon. Let's check in with Adrian Clark of the Athletics dedicated Arsenal podcast Ham breakoff on where he expects West Ham to cause Mikel Arteta's side problem.

Mark Carey (30:41)

Problems.

Tom Harris (30:42)

There are two areas where they can hurt us and that's one's on the break. Kudis and Bowen.

Matt Davis Adams (30:47)

Very, very good, very quick.

Tom Harris (30:49)

So we've got to be careful of them and the other is that they got some big Guys, and we saw that last year. Sochek is the threat for me. He gets on the end of a lot of crosses. He, you know, whether it's corners or crosses, he just ghost into the box and. And look to score with headed goals. So, yeah, I think it's another reason to go with Marino up top, you know, because they do have aerial threat. But yeah, in general, general, we should outplay them. But let's see how it transpires.

Matt Davis Adams (31:18)

Tom, you wrote a piece on the Athletic this week about why counterattacks could be key for Arsenal given their lack of a striker at the moment.

Tom Harris (31:25)

Yeah, well, all credit to Jordan Campbell on that one. He was the one who wrote the piece. I helped with a bit of kind of data insight, but it was a good spot from him, to be honest. In terms of Arsenal kind of racking up more shots and goals and direct attacks from fast breaks in recent weeks. They scored five goals from counter attacks in the last month and they've scored six season. So, you know, there has definitely been an uptick. And that Leicester game, I believe was. Was a good example of them kind of leaning into that a little bit more. One interesting thing in that piece is that if you look at teams and how often they're generating chances within 10 seconds from a turnover, so they make a defensive action and then they have a shot within 10 seconds. You know, you look at Bournemouth, their. Their miles clear at the top, around 11% of the time that they win the ball in the. In the kind of advanced areas, they're taking shots in that amount of time. Arsenal are right at the bot with Southampton and Ipswich in that regard. So it does show that they're a little bit slow sometimes to really straightforward when they win the ball in those areas and they're really good at winning the ball in those areas. So I think it's kind of can they do that a little bit more and can they embrace that a little bit with the kind of makeshift forward line that they're having to throw together in these upcoming weeks?

Matt Davis Adams (32:36)

We shall see elsewhere this weekend. Massive game in the race for Champions League football sees Newcastle United host Nottingham Forest in the early kickoff on Sunday. You might have noticed I inhaled a little bit there. As a Nottingham Forest supporter, I still can't get my head around this sentence. Race for Champions League football. A Chris Wood hat trick against his old side saw forest run out three one winners in this fixture last season. Mark Forest, number nine. He wears number 11. Continues to exceed expectations. Which way do you see this one swinging? Both teams looking to. To bounce back after defeats last time out.

Mark Carey (33:09)

Yeah, absolutely. And I think that the first goal will be crucial here, whoever may score it from a player perspective, I think that it's. It's true of Forest. You'll be able to expand far more than me. Matt Forest have scored first 19 times this season and I do think it really speaks to obviously their intention. Every team wants to score first but I think it really facilitates the way that they can then subsequently play in the rest of the game where they can keep things really strong defensively, play in a bit more of a deep block and then exploit the opposition in the counter attack which they are devastating at. And obviously when that doesn't happen they may become a little bit unstuck. We saw it in the Fulham game last week, the Bournemouth game a few weeks ago now that when the opposition score it just disrupts things a little bit from a Forest perspective because they're being asked to come out and then the opposition can be the ones to at least sort of have an element of control over the game and potentially pick them off on the counter attack as Bournemouth did so, so well. Albeit in a bit of an anomalous game for Forest this season. But you think about Newcastle, obviously they're at home. They have the firepower to be that clinical force. You think of Alexander Isak and all the amazing actions that he's done from an attacking perspective. But in his all round game he's been one of the. In the Premier League this season. Newcastle themselves of course are strong out of possession aside from maybe the City game last weekend. They can really mix it up in terms of what they do out of possession. They can go man for man and really press high and be really aggressive or they can stay compact in terms of a 45 1. Potentially a 5, 41 at times. But to your point, when you've got Chris Wood in your team, you've always got a chance, I suppose. And he'll be. Why don't we be confident anyway, won't he? But he will be even more confident at St. James's Park. As you say, you've got the there last last season and I didn't realize quite how, how much he sort of stacks up against others in terms of per 90 minutes this season. He's got a better goal scoring rate than Erling Haaland. 0.81 per 90 minutes. And that's only bettered by Mohamed Salah. Of course. That's always the phrase that you always say, only Mohamed Salah is better on X metric. And that's matched by Alexander Isak. So you could call this the 0.81 goals per 90 Derby if you so wish to. But I do think that will be kind of a narrative of this game. You know, both players at the top end of the pitch, Alexander Isak and Chris Wood, who will be the one to maybe score and of course who will be the one to come out on top? To broadly answer my own question here, actually, I ran the numbers. We've got a simulated match prediction model on the Athletic and potentially not the most glamorous is that it suggests that there'll be a 11 draw. So honours even in this one according to my match predict model.

Matt Davis Adams (35:54)

All right, I think Forest would probably take that only lost back to back games once this season in the reverse actually. And then at Arsenal and obviously had an excellent response to getting hammered at Bournemouth by putting seven past Brighton Newcastle. I've lost their last two home league games, so maybe something there for Forest. He said, crossing his fingers. Right, that's all from Tom and Mark, thanks to both. Make sure you head over to the Athletics Tactics podcast where you can hear more from both of them. After the break, we'll hear from some of the other club podcasts across the Athletic FC Aston Villa will be looking to build on Wednesday's draw when they host Chelsea at Villa park on Saturday evening. Here's Liam Twomey speaking on the Athletics Chelsea podcast straight out of cupboard, hosted by yours truly on how Maresca's side will cope without Nicholas. The movements of all these players, the things that they like to do, don't really complement one another and the thing that balanced all of them was Jackson's.

Tom Harris (36:59)

Relentless desire to run in behind and.

Matt Davis Adams (37:02)

Ability to run in behind. And so I think it's about finding a new balance.

Tom Harris (37:07)

Now.

Matt Davis Adams (37:07)

You would hope they've had enough time.

Tom Harris (37:10)

At Cobham and Maresca has had enough.

Matt Davis Adams (37:12)

Time at Cobham to figure out how.

Tom Harris (37:16)

To find a new balance with this attacking unit.

Matt Davis Adams (37:19)

But there have been very little signs of it in the last two games against Brighton.

Tom Harris (37:24)

So there needs to be something radically.

Matt Davis Adams (37:28)

Different against Villa, otherwise the tone of the conversation around Chelsea is just going to get even darker and suddenly that game on Tuesday against Southampton looks absolutely massive.

Tom Harris (37:40)

That's that for Bridge.

Matt Davis Adams (37:42)

David Moyes returns to Old Trafford with his resurgent Everton side to face a Manchester United team languishing in 15th place. Here's Andy Mitten and first Ian Irving from the Talk of the Devils podcast. What about this weekend then?

Tom Harris (37:56)

United have actually won four of the last five at Goodison park in all competitions.

Matt Davis Adams (38:00)

I mean, part of that was perhaps the greatest goal ever scored in the Premier League by Alejandro Garnacho as well. Another incredible Goodison park memory. David Moyes has made a huge difference to them though.

Mark Carey (38:10)

13 points from a possible 15 and.

Tom Harris (38:13)

It will be another difficult game for United. There's no question. David Moyes said his priority was keeping Everton up. They're now above Manchester United in the table. I know the recent run has been good. I know that the victory at Old Trafford in December was just about the most impressive Manchester United result this season. I want to be hopeful, but I just worry when I watch Manchester United.

Matt Davis Adams (38:36)

The moment Ange Postecoglou will be hoping last weekend's victory over Manchester United can spur Tottenham on ahead of their visit to Ipswich is Jack Pitt Brook on the Athletics Tottenham podcast. View from the Lane on whether we might see Dayan Kulizevski return to a role in midfield at the start of the season.

Mark Carey (38:53)

Kulasevski was so busy and I think now he's just a bit exhausted. I think it would be a risk in these last in this kind of final stage of the season to go back to having Kulasevsky as one of.

Tom Harris (39:06)

The eights because I just think, you.

Mark Carey (39:09)

Know, the ball, I don't think he'd be able to press like he was able to press at the start of the season. That that's my guess. So I think and you know they have been playing in a more conservative way for the last few months, understandably so I think it's been the right thing to do and I don't think.

Tom Harris (39:21)

That just because some players are back.

Mark Carey (39:23)

They will go back to, you know, the kind of all out, undiluted full.

Matt Davis Adams (39:27)

Strength version of and finally outside of the Premier League. Major League Soccer returns this weekend. Once again there'll be a lot of attention on Lionel Messi's Inter Miami the total soccer shows. Joe Lowry has faith in them to get over the line this time. After disappointment last season they flopped in every single knockout competition. Last year into Miami they flocked it.

Tom Harris (39:48)

They flopped in Champions cup, they flopped in leagues Cup.

Matt Davis Adams (39:50)

They didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs. They were on the the bad end of the worst, I guess the largest, largest upset we've ever seen in MLS history when they lost that series to Atlanta United. This team's hungry man Messi does not like to lose. Suarez Busquets, Alba does not like to lose. I really like a lot of their transfer window business not just because They've signed a central defender from Chile whose name is Max Falcon, but also because I think they've legitimately addressed needs. They've replaced Diego Gomez in midfield, Ryan's favorite player of all time. Allende is going to have a phenomenal season up top on the left side. Oh yeah, this team got better in the off season straight up and they were really good, good last year. Enjoy the football this weekend. The Athletic FC will be back on Monday. You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Guy Clark, Mike Stavroot and Jay Beal. The executive producer was Ailey Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts.

Mark Carey (40:41)

For free, search for the Athletic on.

Matt Davis Adams (40:42)

Apple, Spotify and all the usual places.

Mark Carey (40:45)

The Athletic FC podcast is an athletic media company production Foreign.

James Pearce (41:02)

This podcast is brought to you by Aura. By the time you hear about a data breach, your information has already been exposed for months. On average, companies take 277 days to report a breach. That's nine months where hackers have access to your personal data. That's why we're thrilled to partner with Aura. Aura is an all in one digital safety solution that monitors the dark web for your phone number, email and Social Security number, sending real time alerts if your info is found. It also includes a vpn, password manager and data broker removal to help keep you safe for a limited time. Aura is offering a 14 day free trial plus a dark web scan to check if your personal information has been leaked. All for free@aura.com that's aura.com safety to sign up and protect your loved ones. That's a u r a.com safety terms apply. Check the site for details.

Tom Harris (41:57)

Acast Powers the world's best podcasts.

Mark Carey (42:01)

Here's a show that we recommend.

Matt Davis Adams (42:05)

Hey folks, it's Marc Maron from WTF.

Mark Carey (42:08)

It's been more than 15 years now.

Matt Davis Adams (42:10)

And I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week.

Mark Carey (42:13)

Week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande.

Matt Davis Adams (42:17)

She just looks at me because she's always going like dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah, I go, sorry, I. I lost my temper.

Tom Harris (42:23)

I go, I still love you. You know, Daddy has issues.

James Pearce (42:27)

Are you afraid of it?

Tom Harris (42:28)

Of death? Well, I don't.

Mark Carey (42:29)

I think about it all the time.

Tom Harris (42:31)

How are we here already?

Matt Davis Adams (42:32)

Listen to WTF with Mark Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF Plus subscribe subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF Plus.

Tom Harris (42:47)

Acast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast. Com.