The Preview - Man City vs Liverpool

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast: Episode Summary - "The Preview - Man City vs Liverpool"

Release Date: February 21, 2025
Hosts: Matt Davis Adams, Mark Carey, Tom Harris
Guests: Sam Lee (Manchester City Writer), James Pearce (Liverpool Writer)

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1. Introduction

In this episode, Matt Davis Adams and his co-hosts, Mark Carey and Tom Harris, delve deep into the highly anticipated Premier League clash between Manchester City and Liverpool. The discussion sets the stage by reviewing the recent performances of both teams and analyzing the implications of their midweek matches.

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2. Recent Performances

Manchester City: Manchester City experienced a tumultuous period recently. Despite a promising victory against Newcastle United where they delivered "the best they played all season" ([02:20] Matt Davis Adams), their Champions League campaign was cut short by Real Madrid, with a 6-3 aggregate loss. This defeat was compounded by early setbacks in the second leg, including a quick goal by Kylian Mbappé ([02:35] Mark Carey).

"It feels like back to square one on the positivity front." ([02:48] Matt Davis Adams)

Liverpool: Liverpool's form has been a mixed bag. They drew 2-2 against Aston Villa, a result that left them "kicking themselves" due to missed opportunities and defensive lapses ([02:53] Matt Davis Adams). Despite the frustration, James Pearce emphasizes Liverpool's resilience in securing points from tough away fixtures against Everton and Aston Villa ([04:35] Mark Carey).

"We can't allow this to affect us. We're still in an unbelievable position." ([03:55] Mark Carey referencing Arna Slot's stance)

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3. Tactical Analysis and Key Players

Manchester City: Tom Harris highlights the impact of Nico González, Manchester City's senior data analyst, noting his significant improvement in midfield physicality and possession metrics during the Newcastle game ([07:13] Tom Harris). The absence of Erling Haaland due to injury poses a substantial challenge, not only in goal-scoring but also in occupying Liverpool's defenders, thereby creating space for teammates.

"Haaland's presence keeps defenders occupied and forces them to watch him closely." ([09:22] Tom Harris)

Liverpool: Liverpool's tactical setup has faced scrutiny, especially their weakness in dealing with crosses and dead-ball situations, a recurring issue this season ([04:55] Mark Carey). The role of Trent Alexander-Arnold is pivotal; his attacking prowess and ability to create chances are seen as crucial against Manchester City. However, defensive concerns linger, particularly regarding Darwin Nunez's inconsistency ([16:53] Matt Davis Adams).

"Tracking the opposition fullback is not one of Salah's strengths, so support is needed for Alexander-Arnold." ([17:35] Matt Davis Adams)

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4. Key Battles and Strategic Tweaks

Midfield Duel: The midfield battle between Manchester City's structured approach and Liverpool's dynamic transitions is expected to be a decisive factor. Liverpool's Alexis McAllister has been praised for his defensive tenacity and ability to disrupt City's play ([23:35] Matt Davis Adams).

Defensive Adjustments: Pep Guardiola faces the challenge of mitigating Manchester City's high defensive line and disjointed pressing seen against Real Madrid ([22:30] Tom Harris). Potential defensive reshuffles include Ruben Diaz partnering with Manuel Akanji, and introducing Kusanov to stabilize the right flank ([18:45] Tom Harris).

"Coordination across the team is crucial. Without it, City's high line becomes a liability." ([22:30] Tom Harris)

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5. Predictions

Matt Davis Adams: Predicts a narrow victory for Liverpool with a scoreline of 2-1, acknowledging their recent defensive issues but favoring their offensive capabilities ([26:17] Matt Davis Adams).

"Sunday I think Liverpool will edge it, but it will be tighter than expected." ([26:17])

Tom Harris: Foresees a high-scoring draw, anticipating both teams' offensive threats will lead to a 2-2 stalemate ([26:33] Tom Harris).

"I'll go for a high scoring draw. 2-2." ([26:33])

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6. Additional Fixtures and Discussions

While the primary focus remains on the Manchester City vs Liverpool showdown, the podcast also touches upon other significant fixtures in the Premier League, including Arsenal vs West Ham, Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, and Everton vs Manchester United. Insights on team strategies, player performances, and potential outcomes are provided by the hosts and guest analysts.

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7. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a comprehensive overview of the tactical nuances and player dynamics that will influence the outcome of the Manchester City vs Liverpool match. The hosts emphasize the importance of midfield control, defensive solidity, and exploiting opposition weaknesses as key factors that could sway the game in favor of either side.

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Notable Quotes

• "It feels like back to square one on the positivity front." – Matt Davis Adams ([02:48])
• "We can't allow this to affect us. We're still in an unbelievable position." – Mark Carey ([03:55])
• "Haaland's presence keeps defenders occupied and forces them to watch him closely." – Tom Harris ([09:22])
• "Tracking the opposition fullback is not one of Salah's strengths, so support is needed for Alexander-Arnold." – Matt Davis Adams ([17:35])
• "Coordination across the team is crucial. Without it, City's high line becomes a liability." – Tom Harris ([22:30])
• "Sunday I think Liverpool will edge it, but it will be tighter than expected." – Matt Davis Adams ([26:17])
• "I'll go for a high scoring draw. 2-2." – Tom Harris ([26:33])

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This summary encapsulates the in-depth analysis and discussions from "The Preview - Man City vs Liverpool" episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, providing listeners with a comprehensive overview of the key elements that will define one of the Premier League's marquee fixtures.

Transcript

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[Mark Carey]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network hello, I'm Matt Davis Adams. Welcome to the preview on the Athletic fc. This week we're focusing on Manchester City versus Liverpool before setting you up for the big fixtures elsewhere. Joining me today are the Athletics senior data analyst Mark Carey. Hey Mark.

[Matt Davis Adams]

Hello.

[Mark Carey]

And data writer Tom Harris is with us too. How you doing, Tom?

[Tom Harris]

All good, Matt, thank you.

[Mark Carey]

All right then, let's get into the big one. Both Manchester City and Liverpool were in action midweek. Pep Guardiola's side eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madri, losing 63 on aggregate, whilst Arna Slot's Reds were held to a 22 draw by Aston Villa at Villa park in the Premier League. Let's check in with both the Athletics, Manchester City writer Sam Lee and Liverpool writer James Pearce, who were watching their respective sides on Wednesday.

[Matt Davis Adams]

There was genuine positivity after City beat Newcastle 40 at the weekend. It was the best they played in ages. The best they played all season. And look, although after the first leg against Real Madrid last week, everyone thought, okay, well this ties over the Newcastle.

[Mark Carey]

Game did give a bit of hope.

[Matt Davis Adams]

That, okay, look, if Madrid have an.

[Mark Carey]

Off night and City have their best night, then you know, maybe someone could change.

[Matt Davis Adams]

And then that was Basically dashed within four minutes. First one for Kylian Mbappe to chase.

[Mark Carey]

He's in behind. He's lo the goalkeeper.

[Matt Davis Adams]

And he scored. It feels like back to square one on the positivity front. It didn't seem like that fight was.

[Mark Carey]

There tonight and I'm sure it will.

[Matt Davis Adams]

Be when it comes to the Liverpool game. But even when they have played well, it's not been enough. Over 90 minutes they might have played.

[Mark Carey]

Well for 45 minutes, for an hour.

[Matt Davis Adams]

It'S not been enough. And against Liverpool they're going to have to play well for the whole thing which is not something they've done too much at all all season. Jota and Savos line the center. Salah skips away from Deane. This is Trent Alexander Arnold. And courtesy of a huge deflection, Alexander Arnold. Liverpool back level now. An entertaining 22 draw with Aston Villa but real sense of frustration for Arne Slot's side. They were left kicking themselves. It was a game they really should have won. Some glaring misses in front of goal. Not least a nightmare moment for Darwin Nunes. It felt more like two points dropped than a point gained for Slot's side. But I think the important thing for Slot and he touched on this in his press conference, he said we can't allow this to affect us. The fact that we've now had a couple of games recently where we've felt like we didn't get what we deserve. But they're still in an unbelievable position and be facing a wounded man. City side on Sunday. Liverpool haven't won at the Etihad in the Premier League since November 2015. That was Jurgen Klopp's first trip to the Etihad as Liverpool manager. You know, it hasn't been a happy hunting ground for them over the years. It's another momentous day in the context of this title race.

[Mark Carey]

Sure is. So after back to back draws away from home in the Premier League for Liverpool, the gap to Arsenal stands at eight points. The Gunners do have a game in hand. Mind you the big question question then Mark, is this just a blip for on the slot side or have you got growing concerns over how they've been playing in recent weeks?

[Matt Davis Adams]

Yeah, I think that the performances have been okay for Liverpool. I think Liverpool fans kind of knew that this was going to be a bit of a tough period. I think they've had two tricky away fixtures against Everton and Aston Villa. So you know they've shown resilience to not lose either of those away games. So they just need to take the point in each of them and, and keep chipping away at the top of the table to be perfectly honest. Yeah.

[Mark Carey]

James said that it felt like two points dropped. I mean that's maybe the, the Liverpool perspective on it, isn't it? If you look at it from it from a neutral standpoint you'd say a game against Aston Villa at home is difficult whoever you are.

[Matt Davis Adams]

So.

[Mark Carey]

So maybe respect the point.

[Matt Davis Adams]

I think so. I think James mentioned the, the Nunes miss. Obviously that's going to be a big talking point. But I think looking at their expected goals I think they, they should have still deserved to win. I think that obviously expected goals being the, the quality of chances they created. Liverpool put up expected goals of 2.5 in this game and that's the most that winning in the Premier League this season. So I think the numbers suggest that they should have won. I watched the game back and I felt that Liverpool were a little bit disjointed at times on the left hand side. They have no Cody Gakpo through injury and Luis Diaz didn't start which meant that Robertson was often high and wide on the left hand side and it was Alexis Michalis who was dropping in more in build up on the left hand side. So they were doing things a little bit differently. So if Diaz starts on the left hand side as we expect him to against Manchester City, I think there'll be kind of more balance to the way that Liverpool play at the weekend. I think that one of the main concerns I think for Liverpool which from the Aston Villa game which has been a bit of a theme this season, they've been a bit weak in defending crosses as well. So we saw for the Ollie Watkins goal, Liverpool didn't deal with the cross well enough. They also conceded from the free kick. So more in a dead ball situation. They didn't do well with that. And you think about last week as well against Everton they didn't deal with the James Tarkovsky goal in terms of the cross that preceded it. So it has been a theme of Liverpool this season and not dealing very well there. So you think that against Manchester City if Erling Haaland is fit enough to play that he's someone who thrives off back post crosses and the delivery that Manchester City when they're all fit and firing can deliver, that could be a bit of a key weakness. But no, I think broadly speaking, to answer your question, you do take the point away. Aston Villa a strong side, especially given the context of when they're playing an evening kickoff can sometimes Be a little bit trickier, you move on, you extend the lead at the top, albeit by one point and sort of get yourself ready for what is going to be a tough couple of weeks or at least one week against Manchester City and Newcastle City.

[Mark Carey]

Then Pep Guardiola said nothing is eternal after his side were thoroughly outclassed and dumped out of the Champions League. Tom, why do you think they struggled to build on what was such a positive display against Newcastle at the weekend?

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, I mean as Sam alluded to, it's not the first time they've taken two steps back after a step forward this season. I think the Newcastle game was very encouraging like you said, for plenty of reasons. But number one was the performance of Nico Gonzalez in the midfield. I think he's a massive improvement on the physicality in terms of out of possession. You know, there are quite a few kind of long legged tackles and being in the right place at the right time, which we've not seen a lot of this season from the likes of Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic kind of filling in in that position. But also, I mean there were some brilliant stats in possession as well. He was the first Premier League midfielder to make over 100 passes on his debut in the competition. 97% completion rate was also the highest. There were also 15 passes into the final third as well. So you know, we saw quite a few times he was kind of moving forwards and popping those passes in to kind of fill foden in those dangerous areas where he can then go and attack the edge of the box. So I think he brought a lot to that game in terms of the out of possession and in possession. And we've heard Guardiola himself kind of lamenting the fact that this City team can no longer string together 20, 25, 30 passes in the opposition half control games and make it so that City don't have to engage in these 1v1 Manto Man Physical battles with these team like Newcastle, who will beat them for physicality and strength and power in the midfield. They managed to achieve that against Newcastle. They didn't against Real Madrid because you know, I think there were a lot of things that went wrong before the game. Obviously the Haaland injury was a big one. There was the early goal, there was a John Stones injury. There was a kind of confidence issue as well of City having been stung by Real Madrid just a week before that and then going in and having to play with the ball, but having to also be very, very careful knowing that they can get Hit the other way. I think it was a bit of a perfect storm and when you meet players like Mbappe and Vinicius in that kind of form, they. They just couldn't really deal with it.

[Mark Carey]

You mentioned Haaland. They're obviously a massive miss in Madrid. I guess it'll be crucial for City's chances that he's back on Sunday, not just because of his obvious goal scoring ability, but the fact that even if he's not that involved in the game, he's occupying defenders.

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, there was really good piece on site by Sam, who you heard from before, talking exactly about that and the of. Yeah, just his presence and keeping defenders occupied and kind of on their toes. I don't think that City were really had a foothold in that game to. To get someone like Mahmouche into it because he's a player who kind of thrives on getting on the ball, but then also making those moves in behind after combination play. And I just don't think he was able to get close to. To kind of possession moments at all from City in that game. But yeah, I think when you look at how City approach games like this and contrast it to Real Madrid, you know, Madrid. Ancelotti has always made a big point about giving his attacking players a lot of freedom to interchange, to rotate, to kind of rely on their talent to get out of these, kind of find these solutions and come up with these moments. I think City obviously rely on their structure and I think when their structure doesn't work, it means that it's harder for their kind of superstar players, the likes of De Bruyne, Foden, Haaland, when he's in the team, to kind of come up with those moments on their own back because, you know, they need the structure to bring the moments to them.

[Mark Carey]

Well, James touched on the fact that Liverpool have only won one of their last 15 Premier League away games against Manchester City. It's a damning statistic, Mark, but if they're ever going to put that right, it's going to be this weekend, surely.

[Matt Davis Adams]

I think so. I never fully subscribed to those historical stats in terms of how much it then affects the weekend's games, because I'm sure that the players don't stand in the tunnel thinking, oh, we've not won here since 20 whatever. But I think, you know, it's just going to be the. The team's thinking about what their tactical setup is going into that game. So I think you're right. I think it is going to be as Good a chance as any for them to win at the Etihad. I think that the difficulty is despite what Tom was saying, I know that you mentioned about Nico Gonzalez as well that if we take the Newcastle performance only at the weekend just gone, you think, okay, Manchester City are showing some green shoots of recovery with a little bit more foundation substance to it this time because it's actually new players and a slight shift in the way that they're approaching things rather than a false dawn. Maybe after a couple of good performances before the transfer window. But then if they perform similar to how they played against Real Madrid, maybe in both legs to a certain extent. Specifically because they're playing against Liverpool who are so devastating on the transition that you think okay, well yeah, it is Liverpool's best chance. I don't think there'll be too much of a mental block in the fact that Liverpool haven't been too successful at the esse had in recent years to sort of stop them from really putting in a good performance. But you know, as I mentioned, Liverpool haven't been wholly convincing in recent weeks. But I think when you're playing against a team who's maybe a little bit more likely to go toe to toe with you, those gaps will maybe open up in certain spaces where as I say, Liverpool in transitional moments are as devastating as anyone in Europe in terms of City.

[Mark Carey]

It's a slightly different feel, Tom, isn't it to what we've seen from this game in recent season. 17 point gap between the sides. So not a title decider. I mean they've got to be up for this one, haven't they? They got to shrug off the disappointment of midweek because they're their own champ. Qualification is far from secure.

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean they could be in sixth if they fail to win this game and other results go against them. But yeah, I do get the feeling there's still a little bit of needle in this contest leftover. Some of these title races that we've had, we've seen some really big battles that the etihads in recent seasons between these two sides and I think the sight of Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander, Arnold Alisson, Van Dijk turning up is going to get the best out of these City players and the fans. So yeah, I think it's been quite an exhausting couple of weeks really for City in terms of the games that they had to play and the results that they've had to suffer through. But I think this is exactly the kind of motivation and the challenge I need just for one kind of big push before the fixtures start to thin out a little bit.

[Mark Carey]

All right, well, after the break we'll get into where both teams will look to hurt each other.

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Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card based on the February 2024 Nielsen report, Omar Mahmouch showed what he was capable of in Manch 4 nil victory over Newcastle. He scored a hat trick in barely more than half an hour. Aston Villa had plenty of joy down Liverpool's right hand side on Wednesday. Tommy expecting pep to target this area. Will Mahmouche be playing off the left?

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, I think it depends on Haaland's availability because obviously I think Mahmouche will have to play in that centre forward role if Haaland is out. But I do think more generally speaking, that left hand side is where City have done a lot of really good attacking work this season, especially when they can get Josko Gvardiol up there in support as well. I mean, Mark will have heard me banging on about in the office quite a lot this season, but I just think they're so Much better when Gvardiol has that freedom to make those overlapping underlapping runs. We've seen games and there was the game against Aston Villa back in December I believe where Gvardiol was kind of tied to the back three because there were injuries in the defence and it was Jack Grealish kind of on the left kept receiving the ball. And because Gvardiol couldn't get forwards, he was just constantly left two on one and really kind of missing that support from his fullback. But I think Mahmou has shown that he can link up well with, with Gvardiol in terms of his movement. His, his debut in the Premier League against Chelsea. There were a lot of encouraging signs that those two can coexist on that left hand side. A few nice runs from out to in, from Mahmoud to kind of drag Rhys James into the middle and open up that space for Gvardiol to attack around the outside. I think Savinho is a good option there as well. He's. He's been very good at kind of driving to the by line and standing up those crosses to the back post that Mark was mentioning before for Erling Haaland if he's there. So y. I think there are options there and I think if you can double up with, you know, your most dangerous attacking players really in Jos Kokvardi or Savinho Mahmou on Trent Alexander Arnold, I think that's the kind of thing that City will be looking to do.

[Mark Carey]

Mark Tom mentions Alexander Arnold there, his attacking prowess on show. In midweek he scored Liverpool's equalizer. He got the equalizer at the Etihad last season too. So he's going to be a key feature in this game.

[Matt Davis Adams]

Absolutely. I don't think we need to spend too much time talking about the, the onboard qualities of Trent Alexander Arnold. He's been coming in, been sort of running in those half space areas a little bit more this season, which is how he got the goal against Aston Villa as well. But I think from Liverpool's perspective the out possession side of things in terms of defending with Trent Alexander Arnold might be something to think about. It's something that on a slot is fully aware of. And he did the same against Bournemouth and has done it against Aston Villa as well to a certain extent where he's pushing Ryan Gravenberg from midfield across towards the right hand side and he's sometimes playing as an auxiliary right back to essentially help help Trent Alexander Arnold and support him in those out of possession moments. So when you see him shuffle across, you'll maybe start to empty the midfield ever so slightly. But I think it is interesting to see that Slot is fully aware of that fact. And he said as well in the press conference after the Bournemouth game going back a couple of weeks that Mo Salah is very good at a lot of things but tracking the opposition fullback is not one of them. So he's clearly saying he needs to give the support to Alexander Arnold from midfield. But I think it's interesting as well then that by doing that and keeping Salah higher he's then maybe going to pin the opposition fullback back a little bit. So maybe Gvardiol might not get forward quite as much because he knows the threat of Salah's willing to run in behind. And as I mentioned before we know how strong Liverpool are in those transitional moments and with the pace of Salah, especially against Manchester City's high line saw it only midweek how high their line was and how the pace of Mbappe was able to exploit it that there's a bit of push and pull from both sides. So you think about how strong one is in possession and how the others maybe could be exploited out of possession. I think it will be a key battle. Yeah.

[Mark Carey]

On that side we've mentioned Vario might have to be a bit of a reshuffle in the city defense. John Stones hobbling off early at the Bernabe Bay. Who could join Manuel Akanji on the sidelines. What solutions can can Pep come up with here Tom defensively?

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, it's something he Pep's had to deal with all season really. He's been getting a bit fed up with it I think in his post match press conferences in terms of yeah not only having to rotate these players but as. As I kind of alluded to before the implications that has further up the pitch because it means players like Gvardiol can't get forward as freely. You know you have to play a kind of natural right back on that side rather than Rico Lewis to invert to get superioris in the middle. There's always all these kind of dynamics going on but yeah, just looking at the squad available I think Ake has to start alongside Ruben Diaz in the middle and then Gvardiol has to be on the left and I think maybe obviously you could play Rico Lewis on the right but I think Kusanov is probably a good option on that in that right back slot to allow Gvardiol forward. And I think you know it has been a bit of a baptism of fire really for Kusanov. Obviously that debut Against Chelsea. Chelsea he was up against I barely a week later had to deal with Vinicius, Santiago Bernabeu in midweek. But I think he dealt really well with it. I think he was, you know, obviously there were times that Vinicius got past him because that's what Vinicius does better than anyone in the world really. But I think Kusanov showed a lot of character there. He showed a lot of grit and determination and the kind of physicality to keep up, you know, playing that position right back, which isn't something he's done before. So obviously it's a risk playing him out there. But I think it brings solidity. But I also think it brings, you know, the best out of Guardiol on the opposite side.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, absolutely. Brutal start for Kuzanov. Might not get any any easier here either. Albeit Mark Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez wasteful in midweek. So therefore Cody Gakpo's potential return will give Kuzanov more headaches but also help ease the reliance on Mo Salah who's been utterly ruthless and brilliant this season.

[Matt Davis Adams]

He has, yeah. Again, it's something I don't need to expand too much upon because everybody knows it so well in terms of Mo Salah. But I think, yeah, you're right that Jota quite uncharacteristic I think from Jota. He's normally such a clinical finisher, but he definitely didn't have his shooting boots on against Alston Villa. I think there was one where he opened his body up and you could just imagine it curling into the top corner, at least on target. And he opened his body up far too much and it went out for nearly a throw in at the end. But I think think Gakpo might be touch and go to start or to get in the squad. Looking at Arne Slot's press conference, I think he said he hadn't trained with the team in the past couple of days. So you maybe even expect Luis Diaz to start on the left, keep Jota up front and obviously Salah on the right hand side. I feel bad for Darwin Nunes. Obviously it is a narrative that dominated things midweek. I think he's going to be little more than an impact substitute for the final few. Unless obviously something think drastic changes. I think he will be resigned to being a substitute. I don't think he'll be trusted in these bigger games for Liverpool. I think, you know, the fact that Mo Salah has been so ruthless, I think it obviously is intentional from the team. I think the whole system is Set up to get the best out of Salah so that he can thrive as he does of being the main goal scorer. I think obviously Liverpool do have goals across the forward line at the very least, but also have the potential of more goals from. From midfield. I think that in recent weeks Dominik Szoboszlai has been in excellent form in and out of possession right up to getting into the attacking third. It's been something that Slot has spoken about since the start of the season that Szoboszlai could and should be getting more goals and popping up in the box more often with a bit more sort of clinical finishing. So I don't think Liverpool will be concerned about where the goals might come from at the weekend. It'll just be more a case of how they can actually work those openings against Manchester City. City.

[Mark Carey]

And that leads us on nicely to tactical tweaks for both teams. Tom, how are you expecting Pep to try and fix City's out of possession problems?

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, I mean there's a lot of work to do. It's. This kind of thing doesn't happen overnight and Pep's trying to. Been trying to do it all season. But yeah, a few of the things we saw in that Newcastle game, maintaining possession a little bit better. You know, as Pep said, kind of the 20, 25 passes in the opposition half, I need to try and start doing that again just to give them a little bit more control in these games. But yeah, I think that one of the worst we saw really from that Real Madrid game was just how disjointed their. Their high press was. I think there were times when the front went and the. The kind of the back four didn't push up with them and vice versa. I mean if you look at the first goal, Rallacencio has so much time to pick out that ball over to Kylian Mbappe and the high line is there from City so it doesn't match up. You know, if you're not going to press a player who's going to play the pass and don't push your lineup. You know, it's things like that, just the kind of coordination across the team. It's all stuff again which isn't going to be fixed overnight but things which hopeful be taking lessons from.

[Mark Carey]

So City will be taking lessons from it. Mark. But have Madrid maybe provided a blueprint for Liverpool in terms of exploiting those. Those fragilities out of possession for City?

[Matt Davis Adams]

I think so. I think Tom absolutely hit the nail on the head in terms of City's high line the whole point. And I bang this drum so often on so many different podcasts that if you have a high defensive line then you have to drop off if there's not pressure on the ball. And the Asensio goal is just a perfect example of do either one or the other but don't do neither. For such an elite level side, it was so obvious that that was what they needed to do was just drop off a couple of yards and Ruben Diaz had that diving header to try and get something on it and if there'd have been a couple of yards difference there, you'd think he maybe would have stopped things at source. So I think with Liverpool, I think you think about the. I mentioned it before in terms of the transitional ability of anyone within their team, but we've seen so often with Virgil van Dijk playing those raking balls to Mo Salah if, if they, if City do press them slightly higher and they keep that high line, Salah has obviously the pace and the tenacity to be able to get on the end of a long ball. Or you think maybe have Trent Alexander Arnold more on the ball. I know we mentioned him before but having more on the ball in build up maybe get him slightly more central in the half spaces within Liverpool's early buildup and then he can play raking passes either over the top or maybe diagonals to the far side as well. So I think that will be key especially as you say, learning from, from what Manchester City's weaknesses are. I think that obviously the midfield will be a key battle. I know that's kind of true of most games, but I think especially here, given that it's been one of Liverpool's biggest strengths this season and one of City's biggest weaknesses as well, I think that despite me saying about Ryan Gravenberch making some really good selfless actions in terms of defensively helping out on the right hand side, he's maybe not been quite as dominant in recent weeks in possession. I think teams have stifled him a little bit. Specifically the Everton game I'm thinking of. But I think Alexis McAllister has been quietly outstanding in recent weeks all season, really biting into challenges. His defensive tenacity is so, so impressive. I think he's potentially underrated outside of the Liverpool fan base. He really keeps things ticking along nicely. So I think Liverpool's midfield will be key in this game. And of course I mentioned it before in terms of the transitional element. But just to put some numbers to it, if you've got two data people would be foolish not to use more numbers in this podcast, but Liverpool have had 3.8 direct attacks per 90. Now this is a proxy of counterattacking. Only Newcastle have registered higher in the Premier League this season. Quite clear that that's what they look to do a lot and it's something that City have been weak on this season, especially of being played through far too easily when they do lose the ball in high areas. So quite a lot to think about there I suppose all across the pitch. Knowing it is one thing, but being able to exploit it is another.

[Mark Carey]

All right, as we round off our chat on this game then, let's have some predictions. Mark, what do you think is going to happen on Sunday?

[Matt Davis Adams]

Sunday I think Liverpool will edge it, but they haven't been the strongest defensively. They've conceded five goals in the past three games as well. So I think it will be tighter than maybe people expect, but I'm going to go with 2:1 to Liverpool.

[Mark Carey]

Okay Tom, how are you feeling?

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, I'll be optimistic, which might be foolish, but I'll go for a high scoring draw. 2 2. But as you say there's with that Real Madrid game, one thing can happen in the first 10 minutes and it can be a completely different story.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, well hopefully goals are plenty then at the Etihad 4:30 kickoff UK time for that one on Sunday. This episode is brought to you by the Nissan Armada Pro 4X. With a twin turbo V6 engine ready to propel your adventures, up to 8,500 pounds of towing capacity to haul all your favorite toys and space for eight passengers, Nissan's most powerful car yet will chew up and spit out anything you throw at it. Learn more about the all new 2025 Nissan Armada at nissanusa.com Towing capacity varies by configuration. See Nissan Towing Guide and Owner's manual for additional information. Always secure cargo Arsenal will be looking to pile the pressure on Liverpool when they host West Ham on Saturday afternoon. Let's check in with Adrian Clark of the athletics dedicated Arsenal podcast Handbrake off on where expects West Ham to cause Mikel Arteta's side problems.

[Tom Harris]

There are two areas where they can hurt us and that's one's on the break. Kudis and Bowen. Very, very good.

[Mark Carey]

Very quick.

[Tom Harris]

So we've got to be careful of them and the other is that they got some big guys and we saw that last year. Sochek is the threat for me. He gets on the end of a lot of crosses. Whether it's corners or crosses, he just ghosts into the box and looked to score with headed goals. So yeah, I think, think it's another reason to go with Marino up top, you know, because they do have aerial threat. But yeah, in general we should outplay them. But let's, let's see how it, how it transpires.

[Mark Carey]

Tom, you wrote a piece on the Athletic this week about why counterattacks could be key for Arsenal given their lack of a striker at the moment.

[Tom Harris]

Yeah, well, all credit to Jordan Campbell on that one. He was the one who wrote the piece. I helped with a bit of kind of data insight, but it was a good spot from him, to be honest, in terms of Arsenal kind of racking up more shots and goals and direct attacks from F breaks in recent weeks. They scored five goals from counter attacks in the last month and they've scored six all season. So, you know, there has definitely been an uptick. And that Leicester game, I believe was a good example of them kind of leaning into that a little bit more. One interesting thing in that piece is that if you look at teams and how often they're generating chances within 10 seconds from a turnover, so they make a defensive action and then they have a shot within 10 seconds. You know, you look at Bournemouth, their miles clear at the top around 11% of the time that they win the ball in the, in the kind of advanced areas, they're taking shots in that amount of time. Arsenal are right at the bottom with Southampton and Ipswich in that regard. So it does show that they're a little bit slow sometimes to really straightforward when they win the ball in those areas and they're really good at winning the ball in those areas. So I think it's kind of can they do that a little bit more and can they embrace that a little bit with the kind of makeshift forward line that they're having to throw together in these upcoming weeks?

[Mark Carey]

We shall see elsewhere this weekend, massive game in the race for Champions League football sees Newcastle United host Nottingham Forest in the early kickoff on Sunday. You might have noticed I inhaled a little bit there. As a Nottingham Forest supporter, I still can't get my head around this sentence. Race for Champions League football A Chris Wood hat trick against his old side saw Forest run out three one winners in this fixture last season. Mark Forest, number nine, who wears number 11, continues to exceed expectations. Which way do you see this one swinging? Both teams looking to bounce back after defe last time out?

[Matt Davis Adams]

Yeah, absolutely. And I think that the first goal will be crucial here. Whoever may score it. From a player perspective, I think that it's, it's True of Forest. You'll be able to expand far more than me, Matt, in terms of Forest have scored first 19 times this season. And I do think it really speaks to obviously their intention. Every team wants to score first, but I think it really facilitates the way that they can then subsequently play in the rest of the game where they can keep things really strong defensively, play in a bit more of a deep block and then exploit the opposition in the counter attack which they are devastating at. And obviously when that doesn't happen, they may become a little bit unstuck. We saw it in the Fulham game last week, the Bournemouth game a few weeks ago now that when the opposition scores first, it just disrupts things a little bit from a Forest perspective because they're being asked to come out and then the opposition can be the ones to at least sort of have an element of control over the game and potentially pick them off on the counterattack as Bournemouth did so, so well. Albeit in a bit of an anomalous game for Forest this season. But you think about Newcastle, obviously they're at home. They have the firepower to be that clinical force. You think of Alexander Isak and all the amazing actions that he's done from an attacking perspective. But in his all round game he's been one of the best players in the Premier League this season. Newcastle themselves of course are strong out of possession, aside from maybe the City game last weekend. They can really mix it up in terms of what they do out of possession. They can go man for man and really press high and be really aggressive or they can stay compact in terms of a 4, 5 1. Potentially a 5, 41 at times. But to your point, when you've got Chris Wood in your team, you've always got a chance, I suppose. And he'll be. Why don't you be confident anyway, won't he? But he will be even more confident at St. James's Park. As you say. He got the hat trick there last, last season and I didn't realize quite how. How much he sort of stacks up against others in terms of per 90 minutes this season. He's got a better goal scoring rate than Erling Haaland. 0.81 per 90 minutes. And that's only bettered by Mohamed Salah. Of course that's always the phrase that you always say, only Mohamed Salah is better on metric and that's matched by Alexander Isak. So you could call this the 0.81 goals per 90 Derby if you so wish to. But I do think that will be kind of a key narrative of this game. You know both players at the top end of the pitch, Alexander Isak and Chris Wood, who will be the one to maybe score and of course who will be the one to come out on top? To broadly answer my own question here actually I ran the numbers. We've got a simulated match prediction model on the Athletic and and potentially not the most glamorous is that it suggests that There'll be a 11 draw so honours even in this one according to my match prediction model.

[Mark Carey]

All right, I think Forest would probably take that only lost back to back games once this season in the reverse actually and then at Arsenal and obviously had an excellent response to getting hammered at Bournemouth by putting seven past Brighton. Newcastle have lost their last two home league games, so maybe something there for Forest. He said crossing his fingers. Right, that's all from Tom and Mark, thanks. To make sure you head over to the Athletics Tactics podcast where you can hear more from both of them. After the break we'll hear from some of the other club podcasts across the Athletic FC With President's Day savings at the Home Depot you can get up to 35% off select appliances like LG. Plus save up to an extra $450 on select appliances. And with customizable kitchen packages we make it easy to shop and swap for the features you want like the three door French door refrigerator with slow melting round craft ice.

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[Matt Davis Adams]

On Disney plus why did you stop being a vigilante?

[Mark Carey]

The line was crossed.

[Matt Davis Adams]

Sometimes. Sometimes peace needs to be broken.

[Tom Harris]

Chaos must reign.

[Matt Davis Adams]

On March 4th, the nine episode event begins.

[Mark Carey]

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[Matt Davis Adams]

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[Mark Carey]

Aston Villa will be looking to build on Wednesday's draw when they host Chelsea at Villa park on Saturday evening. Here's Liam Twomey speaking on the Athletics Chelsea podcast Straight outta Cupboard, hosted by yours truly on how Mareska's side will cope without Nicholas Jackson. The movements of all these players, the.

[Tom Harris]

Things that they like to do, don't really complement one another and the thing that balanced all of them was Jackson's relentless desire to run in behind and ability to run in behind. And so I think it's about finding a new balance.

[Mark Carey]

Now.

[Tom Harris]

You would hope they've had enough time at Cobham and Maresca has had enough time at Cobham to figure out how to find a new balance with this attacking unit, but there have been very little signs of it in the last two games against Brighton. So there needs to be something radically different against Villa. Otherwise the tone of the conversation around Chelsea is is just gonna get even darker. And suddenly that game on Tuesday against Southampton looks absolutely massive at Stamford Bridge.

[Mark Carey]

David Moyes returns to Old Trafford with his resurgent Everton side to face a Manchester United team languishing in 15th place. Here's Andy Mitten and first Ian Irving from the Talk of the Devils podcast. What about this weekend then?

[Tom Harris]

United have actually won four of the last five at Goodison park in all competitions.

[Mark Carey]

I mean, part of that was perhaps the greatest goal ever scored in the Premier League by Alejandro Garnacho as well. Another incredible Goodison park memory. David Moyes has made a huge difference to them though.

[Matt Davis Adams]

13 points from a possible 15 and.

[Tom Harris]

It will be another difficult game for United.

[Mark Carey]

There's no question.

[Tom Harris]

David Moyes said his priority was keeping Everton up the now above Manchester United United in the table. I know the recent run has been good. I know that the victory at Old Trafford in December was just about the most impressive Manchester United result this season. I want to be hopeful, but I just worry when I watch Manchester United at the moment.

[Mark Carey]

Ange Postecoglou will be hoping last weekend's victory over Manchester United can spur Tottenham on ahead of their visit to Ipswich. Is Jack Pitt Brook on the Athletics Tottenham podcast. View from the lane and whether we might see Dayan Kulizevski return to a role in Midwest Field at the start of the season.

[Matt Davis Adams]

Kulasevski was so busy and I think now he's just a bit exhausted. I think it would be a risk in these last, in this kind of final stage of the season to go back to having Kulasevsky as one of the eights because I just think, you know, the ball, I don't think he'd be able to press like he was able to press at the start of the season. That that's my guess. So I think and you know, they have been playing in a more conservative way for the last few months, understandably. So I think it's been the right thing to do and I don't think that just because some players are back will go back to, you know, the kind of all out undiluted full strength version of Ange Ball.

[Mark Carey]

And finally, outside of the Premier League, Major League Soccer returns this weekend. Once again there'll be a lot of attention on Lionel Messi's Inter Miami. The total soccer shows. Joe Lowry has faith in them to get over the line this time. After disappointment last season, they flopped in every single knockout competition last year. Inter Miami, they flocked it. They flopped in Champions cup, they flopped in league, they didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs. They were on the the bad end of the worst, I guess the largest upset we've ever seen in MLS history when they lost that series to Atlanta United. This team's hungry man. Messi does not like to lose. Suarez Busquets, Alba does not like to lose. I really like a lot of their transfer window business. Not just because they've signed a central defender from Chile whose name is Max Falcon, but also because I think they've legitimately addressed needs. They've replaced Diego Gomez in midfield, Ryan's favorite player of all time. Allende is going to have a phenomenal season. Up, up top on the left side. Oh yeah, this team got better in the off season straight up and they were really good last year. Enjoy the football this weekend. The Athletic FC will be back on Monday.

[Matt Davis Adams]

You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Guy Clark, Mike Stavroot and Jay Beal.

[Mark Carey]

The executive producer was Ailey Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts.

[Matt Davis Adams]

For free, search for the Athletic on.

[Mark Carey]

Apple, Spotify and all the usual places.

[Matt Davis Adams]

The Athletes Athletic FC podcast is an athletic media company production.

[Mark Carey]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network.