The Preview: MW15

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast – The Preview: MW15

Date: December 5, 2025
Host: Matt Davis
Guests: Tim Spears, Cerys Jones

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Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Matt Davis with Tim Spears and Cerys Jones, previews Matchweek 15 in the Premier League. The panel discusses the major fixtures, dives into the tactical and personnel issues facing the league’s top clubs, and provides insightful commentary on form, confidence, and the ever-shifting nature of the table. Themes include the unique atmosphere of midweek games, the struggle for consistency among several big clubs, and the undercurrents shaping the title race and relegation battle.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Night Matches and Atmosphere

[02:06–03:50]

• Matt Davis and Tim Spears highlight the special energy of midweek under-the-lights fixtures, noting the connection between evening games, atmospheric stadiums, and heightened fan experience.
  • "Football and most forms of entertainment are much better in the evening. I think most people would agree if you’ve been to night matches, they're better than daytimes." – Tim Spears [02:43]
• Cerys mentions the anticipation and potential let-downs of midweek travel, especially after a tough result.

2. Manchester United’s "Meh" Factor & Wolves Preview

[04:08–13:26]

• United’s draw with West Ham encapsulates their current malaise; unable to convert domination into results.
  • "Too many Man United games are just very meh. It's not even that they're awfully bad, they're just quite blar and boring." – Adam Crafton cited by Matt [04:08]
• Cerys sees lack of urgency and questionable substitutions as key issues; directs criticism at players’ mindset.
  • "Complacency feels closer to the right word, but also it doesn’t—Manchester United haven’t earned the right to feel complacent in any game at the moment." – Cerys [04:36]
• Tim explains United’s inconsistency as rooted in failed summer recruitment; strong forwards, but neglect elsewhere.
  • "If you’re going to get this 3-4-3 that he’s going to play every single week… they needed to sort of prioritise at wingback, certainly, which is probably the most important position… didn’t happen at all." – Tim Spears [05:42]
• Wolves’ ongoing struggle:
  • Tim exhibits bleakness about Wolves’ survival prospects: "They’re just utterly incompetent… I’m starting to question whether football is really the right career for a couple of them. It’s going to be too late in January to fix any of this, really." [09:28]
  • Cerys agrees Wolves’ impotence means United fans will expect a result, but doesn’t rule out a "banter" outcome due to United’s vulnerability to upsets.

3. Chelsea’s Defensive Woes & Bournemouth’s Regression

[17:12–24:02]

• Chelsea’s errors at the back resurface, notably in the Leeds loss.
  • "It's just worrying habits that are starting to creep back in… rare that you see title winning teams have a crisis of confidence like that." – Cerys [17:48]
• Tim: Absence of Moises Caicedo is costly, but squad depth and rotation are bigger issues.
  • "They looked a completely different team because they were a completely different team." – Tim [19:28]
• Discussion of winger selection and youth vs. experience, with praise for Pedro Neto’s suitability.
• Bournemouth’s form: Discussed cyclical streakiness, impacted by squad energy and key absences.
  • "I think it just stems from the sort of relentless intensity that Iriola demands... when a few of those, you take a few spokes out of the wheel, it tends to fall apart." – Tim [22:35]

4. Leeds Tactical Shift and Liverpool Issues

[24:02–28:07]

• Leeds’ switch to a back five credited for victory over Chelsea; Cerys says maintaining system could save their season.
• Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz impresses individually, but team chemistry is lacking.
  • "Whenever I see him, he does something… get him on the ball in the right areas, yeah, he can do special things. But the rest are just so ineffective." – Tim [25:47]
• Federico Chiesa’s impact off the bench praised; frustration at limited opportunities despite good performances.

5. Manchester City: Defensive Concerns Despite Results

[31:33–35:19]

• City’s defensive lapses highlighted in wild wins, raising concerns about sustainability despite attacking prowess.
  • "They have clear patterns, the defence just has moments of complete kind of brain lapse." – Cerys [32:03]
  • "They only had 43% possession against Fulham… Guardiola has relinquished control, I guess, in a bid to make them more dynamic." – Tim [32:59]
• Sunderland’s disciplined, opportunistic style makes them dangerous opposition.

6. Aston Villa Resurgence & Arsenal’s Depth

[39:03–44:58]

• Villa’s remarkable reversal under Emery is attributed to squad cohesion and managerial trust, with Ollie Watkins' return to form helping.
  • "Unai Emery deserves a lot of credit… They had the faith in him to turn it around." – Cerys [39:26]
• Arsenal’s makeshift attack working efficiently; Matt jokes: "Can we stop calling him makeshift striker and start calling him make-happen striker?" [40:13]
• Injuries test Arsenal’s depth; squad versatility and attitude seen as key for sustained title challenge.

7. Tottenham’s Malaise vs. Brentford

[44:58–51:02]

• Tim’s happiness rankings put Spurs bottom, and panel discusses the lack of cohesion under Thomas Frank.
  • "It's a whole sort of cycle of unhappiness, really." – Tim [45:42]
  • "It must be the hardest place to play in in the country right now. They've just got this losing mentality." – Tim [48:23]
• Cerys notes the contrast with Brentford’s organizational solidity.
  • "They all look like they know what they're doing. They look like they know how they link up with each other. They have some clear patterns… Spurs are not exactly running a tight ship." [46:46]
• Concern the home crowd will quickly turn toxic if things go south.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On United’s stagnation:
  • "One step forward, two steps back… they’re only three points better off than they were this time last year, which was a record that sort of got Ten Hag the sack at the time." – Tim Spears [05:42]
• Wolves’ despair:
  • "I'm starting to question whether football is really… the right career for a couple of them." – Tim Spears [09:28]
• Chelsea’s defensive regression:
  • "It's just worrying habits that are starting to creep back in… rare that you see title winning teams have a crisis of confidence like that." – Cerys [17:48]
• On Tottenham’s home misery:
  • "That's roughly sort of 500 quid a win, if you’re looking at that over a season… It's quite a lot of money." – Tim Spears [48:23]
• On Arsenal’s depth and resilience:
  • "It feels like a much healthier squad… if their players keep dropping off like this, this is where we’ll kind of see what they’re really made of." – Cerys [41:37]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Night Matches & Atmosphere: 02:06–03:50
• Man United’s Consistency Issues & Wolves Preview: 04:08–13:26
• Chelsea’s Defensive Lapses & Bournemouth’s Streakiness: 17:12–24:02
• Leeds’ Tactical Shift & Liverpool’s Attacking Combinations: 24:02–28:07
• Man City’s Defensive Concerns; Sunderland Preview: 31:33–35:19
• Aston Villa Resurgence & Arsenal Depth: 39:03–44:58
• Tottenham v Brentford – Happiness and At-Home Woes: 44:58–51:02

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Tone & Style

The conversation is lively and irreverent, with candid assessments that balance tactical analysis with dark humor—especially when discussing struggling sides. The analysts blend data and anecdote, with Tim often the most mordant of the group. Cerys provides measured tactical insight and player analysis, while Matt keeps things moving, injecting wit and banter.

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In Summary

The episode’s coverage of MW15 is sharp, comprehensive, and full of pithy commentary. Listeners are taken inside the key storylines shaping this weekend’s fixtures—from the intangible magic of night matches to the granular struggles of identity and depth at several big clubs. Both the optimism and fatalism of modern football fandom are on display, making for a preview that’s rich, engaging, and grounded in both numbers and lived experience.

Transcript

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[Tim Spears]

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[Matt Davis]

The Athletic FC.

Welcome to the preview from the Athletic fc. It's the show where we get you set for the weekend's Premier League action. This week we're looking ahead to the biggest games of match week 15.

And joining me today we have stalwart of the preview show, Tim Spears. How you doing Tim Wahei Alright Matt. That was a very convincing wehe. And after a stellar debut last time out, Kerris Jones is back for the difficult second podcast. You okay Carys?

[Cerys]

I'm good. I'm nervous now you said that, but thank you very much.

[Matt Davis]

Just keep up the standard of last week. You will be fine, right? You simply cannot beat a midweek bonus Barclays this time round. It blessed us with plenty of talking points and goals. Here's Tim Spears opining in article form as Premier League midweek games have shown football is better under the lights. Or is it? I mean I guess it is if you're at Craven Cottage or the Amex, Tim. But maybe if you're not at Old Trafford or Turf Moore. But more broadly I would agree with your points it's about glistening pitches, it's about walking to the stadium under street light, and it's about excess consumption of alcohol in a lot of cases.

[Tim Spears]

That definitely helps. Definitely helps improve the atmosphere, I find. I don't know. I was just. It was. The question was sort of put to me this week and I was like, yeah, I definitely prefer night matches, certainly in person. And it's like, you know, you wouldn't have a gig at like one in the afternoon. You know, football and most forms of entertainment are much better in the evening. I don't. It's hard to explain really, but I think. I think most people would agree if you've been to night matches, they're better than daytimes. But yeah, interestingly, I sort of looked into the data for this and more goals are scored in early kickoffs than late kickoffs, which is quite surprising.

[Matt Davis]

Is it an anticipation thing? I mean, you had to schlep all the way up to Burnley for an early kickoff the other week. I'm guessing you'd be keen to go there on a. I don't know, Tuesday night?

[Cerys]

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it helps build the anticipation, I think, especially if everyone's had a long working day or whatever and then you get there. But then also it does have potential to be a much more deflating experience when it goes wrong as well, I think, because you sort of. If you're getting back at silly o' clock because you've traveled for a game and then you have work the next day, that's a different level of disappointment to if it's, you know, three o' clock on a Saturday.

[Matt Davis]

Well, the West Ham fans traveling back from Old Trafford probably felt a bit better on that Friday morning. The midweek mayhem concluded with them rescuing a point against Manchester United. The Red Devils will look to get back to winning ways when they head to bottom of the Table Wolves on Monday night. And that's where we'll start.

So, after an impressive comeback victory at Selhurst Park, Manchester United were held to a one all draw at home. Struggling West Ham. Here's the Athletics. Adam Crafton hitting the nail on the head on X, formerly known as Twitter. Too many Man United games are just very meh. It's not even that they're awfully bad, they're just quite Blair and boring. It was another game in which Reuben Amarim's side took the lead and then couldn't hold on to it like a disinterested dog walker. Are they too cautious? Caris, why does this keep happening?

[Cerys]

It was a frustrating one for United because they did dominate. They created the better chances they looked. I think people have criticized the amount of chances they were able to create kind of retrospectively, but I don't know how fair that is because they did create a lot of opportunities. Maybe not as many kind of clear cut ones, as many shots on target as you would expect for the amount of possession they had and so on. But I think it was just. There was an element of frustration, I think, with the substitutions Ruben Amarin made. But I think the major thing that stuck out was just the lack of urgency and the letting the game drift for too long. I don't know if it was caution. Complacency feels closer to the to the right word, but also it doesn't because Manchester United haven't earned the right to feel complacent in any game at the moment. So it's quite hard to nail down what it is.

[Matt Davis]

One winning five in the Premier League after three in a row. Have you got a theory, Tim, as to why they struggle for consistency so much? Because they play the same way every week. It doesn't feel like they rotate their squad very much. So surely there should be consistency at this stage.

[Tim Spears]

Unless the players aren't good enough or the manager's not good enough, I guess. I mean, I don't know. This has been going on for years now. In Man United, certainly the entirety of the sort of 10 hag and amorim tenures, it's often a case of one step forward, two steps back, sometimes during matches, sometimes spread over several weeks. I just think what we're seeing right now stems back to the summer, really. You know, we could all see where they're needed to strengthen. If you're going to get this 3, 4, 3. That he's going to play every single week without fail, really. Right then it's okay signing three good forwards, but I think, you know, they needed to sort of prioritize at wing back, certainly, which is probably the most important position of that system. And in midfield and in defense, which didn't happen at all, you know, they went for a very sort of top, heavy recruitment. Three good forwards left and three good forwards arrived. It's problems behind that in the buildup, being able to control games, you know, with or without the ball. You know, that's why they're still a sort of a work in progress and it's slow progress. You know, they're only. They're only three points better off than they were this time last year, which was a record that sort of got 10 hag the sack at the time. And that's despite no Europe, despite more training time. So, you know, no wonder sort of fingers have been pointed at them and questions have been consistently asked of, you know, when is this improvement going to come? Because they show very few signs of being able to do that. And yeah, I guess it's a question of are the players just not good enough or is Amarim the problem? And I think. I think that's what we're finding out right now.

[Cerys]

I think it's been really interesting watching their last few games from sort of the really limp performance against Everton that I think felt like probably the closest to the lows of the 2425 season. And then the win at Crystal palace. Managing to come from behind and get three points was a huge positive for them. And then West Ham feels very much somewhere in between, obviously in terms of result, but more so in terms of performance. It was more creativity and more sort of ability to dictate the game, but without the end product, which is concerning considering, as Tim's just said, the main signings were in the forward line. But it's hard to have a kind of a knee jerk reaction to table position at the moment because the table is so volatile. You can look at it in multiple ways, you can look at it in terms of points tallies and think that they're not much better off. But in terms of the table, they're obviously a lot higher than they finished last season. They had the opportunity to jump into the top five last night, which wasn't taken. I think that's the most frustrating thing for Manchester United fans is these games that feel like missed opportunities and I think if they fail to get a result at Wolves that will only kind of mount.

[Matt Davis]

Yeah, just five points separating 4th and 14th at the moment. Not tight as far as Wolves are concerned though. 12 from safety. Still looking for their first league win of the season after losing it home to Forest at Molineux on Wednesday. Tim, you're going to be there for this one on Monday night before you scamper off halfway across the world to get away from Wolves and cover the ashes instead. Signs of improvement at Villa last week, but. But back to the old dross for the old gold midweek.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, sure. Yeah, nicely summed up. I mean, you know, we've only lost one nil for the last two games, which is a serious improvement. Yeah, one was. One was a really good performance by recent standards against. Against Villa. Probably did enough to. To. To sort of earn a Point, but didn't get one. And then, yeah, Forest in midweek. It really felt. It really felt like a big game in midweek. I know it probably wasn't billed as that, you know, across the nation, but Wolves have got United twice in December and Liverpool and Arsenal. So Forest at home. Rob Edwards, first real home game after having, you know, plenty of time with the players on the training ground. Sort of a Midlands derby under the lights, as we've discussed, is, you know, adds a bit to it. And Wolves just produce absolutely nothing. I think they're one shot on target. Rob Edwards said they look scared afterwards. I mean, I don't know what they're scared of, to be honest. You know, the crowd is sort of with them and ready to back them. They're just not very good, Matt. I mean, there's not like, there's not a lack of effort and I don't think they've got a bad manager. And tactically things are sort of fine. They're just utterly incompetent and looking capable of doing things that are required at this level. They basically purchased some seriously dreadful footballers. I'm starting to question whether football is really, you know, the right career for a couple of them. It's going to be too late in January to fix any of this, really. So I'm sort of, you know, already preparing for the championship and championship survival. I think the way that that's how bad we are. Two points, seven goals in 14. And I can't wait to talk about this for the rest of the season. Matt, on this podcast. It's going to be. It's going to be really fun for everybody.

[Matt Davis]

See, here was me, Keris, about to say, I think that Wolves have got half a chance of winning this game just on the basis that they've got to win a game at some point. And Manchester United. Tim's kind of talked me out of that there. Do you give Wolves any hope here?

[Cerys]

Yeah, that was very bleak. That was probably one of the most bleak speeches I've ever heard on Athletic podcast. In some senses, you think that if Manchester United should be able to secure a result against anyone, it should be Wolves. On the other hand, you sort of feel that if Wolves should be able to pull off an upset against anyone, it would be Man United. So it's a really difficult game to. To call. I think, you know, the thing that probably will be giving Manchester United fans a bit more confidence is just how.

How inefficient or not even inefficient, just impotent. Wolves look Going forward, Steve Madeley, our colleague wrote a really good piece. The gist was basically they don't look like scoring, let alone winning, which was again a pretty devastating sentiment. But. But I think not far off. I think that's probably what will give Man United fans the. The hope is probably that they're not looking at this Wolves team and seeing a threat. Hopefully for them that will allow them to control the game and play with a bit more calm.

[Matt Davis]

Wolves won both these games to nil against United last season, Tim. I guess the big difference is. Well, in the one at Molineux, Bruno Fernandes got sent off at the start of the second half. But also Matthias Cunha was playing for Wolves and scored that night as were your Semedos and your ain't nourish. And that's the thing, right. They just haven't been replaced.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah. And Kune will be playing in this fixer again on Monday and I'm no doubt he'll score again as he did last season. If you were going to sort of predict a Wolves win, there'd be absolutely no sort of sane reasoning behind that. There'd be no sort of common sense behind it because there's nothing to suggest that they can win this game. From what we've seen, however, where we might see a different Wolves is if. If they just happen to get an early goal and get a bit of a lucky break and score and score a goal because they've got absolutely no confidence whatsoever. They look completely devoid of confidence. They take no risks in possession in the final third at all. They're constantly just passing the ball back. Whereas if they got a goal and the crowd were behind them on Monday night, then yeah, we may see a different team. Haven't seen that team yet because they've just been so bad and conceding the first goal. But if anyone can throw in, you know, the sort of ultimate banter result. Yeah, it's, it's, it's Man United and we've seen evidence of that even this season. You know, in that defeat at Grimsby, their sort of XB expected banter figure would be quite high. That's the only kind of hope that I would give, but I certainly wouldn't predict anything other than an away win.

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[Matt Davis]

One of the biggest surprises in midweek was leeds beating Chelsea 31 on Wednesday. The Blues looking to bounce back at Bournemouth on Saturday. They take on a cherry side beaten 1 nil by Everton. Maresca's men dug in brilliantly against Arsenal after Caicedo's red, instigating some title challenger talk. But they were out fought by Leeds just three days later. Shows they've still got a way to go. Right, Keris, you're going to be at this one. You might get a game at center half if it's you or Tosin. For Chelsea, they'll need to defend an awful lot better on Saturday than they did on Wednesday.

[Cerys]

Yeah, I ended up writing this week about sort of Chelsea's errors at the back and how they've kind of crept back in. It was something that kept cropping up earlier in the season. They looked like maybe they'd squashed it. And then there was their first red card in a little while on Sunday against Arsenal. And then there was these, these errors at the back against Leeds. It's just worrying habits that are starting to creep back in. It's just rare that you see title winning teams have a crisis of confidence like that. Although, you know, Enzo Maresca said multiple times, like he doesn't view any of any of this as a crisis. He said, you know, in a job like this, even if you lose one game, it's crisis. If you lose three games, it's huge crisis. And he said it in a sort of a very ironic way. And you know there are caveats that go some way to explaining that kind of weird result midweek. So I mean Chelsea have had a week against Arsenal and Barcelona. Leeds were very up for it. They were kind of fired up by the concept that they might have found a system that could get them a result and they continued to play that system and I think that really helped Elland Road actually feel some sense of encouragement. But also Chelsea were just effectively out fought and out muscled and yeah there was rotation but there shouldn't be that level of lack of composure on the ball and lack of composure under pressure and that was what really let them down.

[Matt Davis]

Pretty obvious to say Tim, that's my specialty shall say anyway, they missed Moises Caicedo, didn't they? I think sort of prevalent thought was well at least it'd be good for him to get a rest for a couple of days and maybe Leeds, Bournemouth and Everton aren't the worst games for him to miss. Turns out he was missed and he will be missed on Saturday and next weekend as well.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, yeah, three matches pretty costly. It's a shame for Caicedo. He's not the most famous footballer in the world because three match suspensions tend to be reduced to one in that case. But he's got a, he's got to do all three. Yeah, I mean look, they should still be able to beat Leeds without him. They should still be able to beat Bournemouth without him. It's the other changes in midweek that really cost him. I mean, you know, they looked a completely different team because they were a completely different team. You know Rhys James was the best player on the pitch on Sunday against Arsenal. He was not playing. Neto and Garnacho probably maybe the two sort of strongest 90 minute wingers at the moment. But they didn't start Fafana and Chalabur I think with the back two against Arsenal and looked and looked immense for the most part. And then you know one's moved to right back and one's rested. So yeah, I guess we sort of saw the weak underbelly of, of Chelsea sort of beyond their first choice11 and that's why they're not title contenders yet. But I thought all that, all that talks a little bit too soon for them anyway. They're still very much a young team, still evolving, still progressing but obviously still need work in squad depth because it's not just quite, it's not quite there yet.

[Matt Davis]

You could kind of get the logic, Caris, I think in some of the team selections, like putting Chaliber at right back because Leeds have got loads of really tall players and you want to try and negate that a bit. But then you can see the headed goal from a corner after five minutes and that goes out the window and the manager is made to look a fool. That's the life of the head coach, right?

[Cerys]

Yeah. And I think the winger selection as Tim just kind of touched on is what I felt that Maresca really did get wrong. I think, you know, Estevao is. He's a superb player, but I am someone who is very much in the school of thought of keep him as an impact sub because Maresca admitted after the game he's caught. He said Estebao had a kind of welcome to the Premier League in that game. Like he. He didn't cope as well as he has done in other matches with the physical battle. I thought Pedro Neto would have been much better suited to that game and I think, you know that that showed when he did. Come on Alejandro Garnacho as well. Probably a better choice than Jamie Gittins. I think Gittens and Estevao are both kind of great like trick, but they needed to just put their heads down and run to the byline and put a cross in. And when Gittens did do that, that was what yielded Chelsea's goal. So I thought that element of the selection was what went a little bit wrong. Maresca is dealing with a difficult situation of, for instance, someone like Reece James. The priority is keeping him fit. He played a lot against Barcelona and Arsenal. Generally you would see Chelsea rotate a lot between midweek and weekend games. There was much less of that last week. Because of it, Barcelona followed by Arsenal than, say, I don't know, your Carabag or your Ajax or whoever else they've played in the Champions League this weekend. I would expect to see them kind of come back to that. Their sort of Premier League first choice team, I think.

[Matt Davis]

Yeah. Shout out to Estebao for channeling the spirit of everyone who's ever played five a side. By just kicking somebody who runs away from you. We've all done it. What's going on with Bournemouth, Tim Lost just one of their first nine in the league. Now winless in five and they've lost four of those. Is this the kind of natural regression we would expect from a squad that was pillaged during the close season or is this something else going on?

[Tim Spears]

I think it's just. I think it's just Bournemouth generally. This happened last season as well. I mean well they've had a bit of an over reliance on Semenya probably in terms of him products which teams have got wise to and sort of targeting him. But yeah they've always been streaky under earlier. They lost five of their first 12 last season and then went on beaten in 10 and then lost four or seven so it's sort of one or the other. And then this season's the same. They went on a seven game unbeaten run and now it's four defeats in five which I think, I don't know, maybe it's too sort of simple to look at it this way but I think it just stems from the sort of relentless intensity that Iriola demands and that their game plan sort of needs to really, to really come off. You know when they're sort of fresh and fit and have got a full squad it tends to work. That spurs game at the start of the season they were absolutely utterly dominant and incessant and relentless for 90 minutes and restricted spurs like a couple of shots which okay maybe a few teams have done. And then against Everton in midweek just, just sort of the complete opposite. And lo and behold you know they're lacking energy which talked about afterwards. They're also missing a few players. They've got a couple of suspensions at the moment. I think Tyler Adams and Lewis Cook are out for this one. Gannon Doak's out injured, Ryan Christie's out injured. So yeah I guess it needs a full buy in from everybody. It needs full energy from everybody. And when a few of those, you take a few spokes out of the wheel it tends to fall apart a little bit. It looks quite hard for them to get that back this weekend. So yeah they're in a bit of a. They're in a bit of a slump right now.

[Matt Davis]

Saturday, 3 o' clock for that one. Saturday tee time. It's Leeds v Liverpool at Ellen Road. Liverpool held to a one all draw at home to Sunderland. We'll get to them shortly. As for Leeds, hoping to emulate their victory against Chelsea as they welcome Arna Slot's side. Farker laying down a marker with a tactical tweak to ease the pressure on himself and move his team out of the relegation zone. You touched on it earlier carries but that switch to a back five against Chelsea after they did the same thing in the second half at the Etihad last weekend, work wonders. It's a formation Liverpool have struggled against this season so presumably is how Leeds are going to line up here.

[Cerys]

Yeah, it would be borderline inexplicable if they didn't. It's the. The most solid and I think most confident that I've seen them all season playing in that formation and it's just generated that bit of positive momentum for them which, you know, perhaps not against Liverpool, but should they be able to put together a run of a few results? The relegation battle looks, you know, fairly open to being able to climb out of those places at the moment as they have done. So if they can hone and refine that system, this could be what. What saves their season and potentially what could keep them up.

[Matt Davis]

Yeah, a couple of players looking Premier League ready as well in Gabriel Gumundsen and Alton AKA both really good midweek. Speaking of Premier League ready, Tim Florian Wirtz sort of got his first goal for Liverpool on Wednesday. Is on the slot. Any closer to finding the right combination in attack shakes his head immediately.

[Tim Spears]

That's. Sorry. No, no, this T has sort of got his first goal. I mean, it's heading near. It's heading nearer the corner flag than. Than the net. You know, it's a terrible shot.

[Momentous/Grainger Advertiser]

All right.

[Matt Davis]

He's rubbish.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah.

No, I mean he looked pretty good in midway. That's almost the best I've seen him, really. Whenever I see him, he does something. He's just on a very individual basis, I think Wirtz, the problem is combinations with teammates, but get him on the ball in the right areas. Yeah, he can do special things. He was the positive one in midweek trying to make things happen, as evidenced by that goal. But the refs are just so ineffective.

I don't. I don't know if it's. If it's a. It doesn't look like a tactical conundrum to me that he needs to sort out. It's just problems with individuals, problems with the dressing room. They just look so flat. It's, you know, Gakpo ineffective in the week. Isaac no service and not really involved and sort of not much inspiration from midfield. I don't really see how sort of changing from 4, 3, 3 with probably the best 11 in the land. It's going to change much, really. There's obviously deeper problems in that dressing room. Recruitment has clearly sort of added an imbalance to the squad that wasn't there before. Obviously Leeds sort of exerted a huge amount of energy in midweek, which is difficult to see them replicating that again a few days later. But, you know, they're in a really good moment and it's tough for Liverpool. That West Ham victory hasn't seen them turn the corner at all. And these inherent problems they've got are still very much there.

[Matt Davis]

Sticking Federico Chiesa in for this one, Kerris, he's got plenty of zeal.

[Cerys]

It's hard to see because of, you know, Isak eventually getting his first Premier League goal. Maybe this is the beginning of him building up some kind of momentum. But you feel for Chiesa, because I don't really know what more he could do to get a start. When he's come on, he's shown that energy, he's shown exuberance and intensity. And you know that I was really impressed, particularly by him tracking back better to put in the block for what would have been a Sunderland winning goal, you know, for the substitute forward. To be making that run back to put that block in is. I think you have to ask questions of what the rest of the team were doing. But it's, it's very impressive on his part. You know, he gets himself into good positions in the box. His. His reading of the game and his understanding of how he can make himself a threat. I actually think, you know, I've been quite impressed by watching him the last couple of games, but I still don't think that it will be enough to get him a starting place.

[Podcast Producer/Host]

This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.

[Matt Davis]

So this is the part of the show where with the help of our partners, Betfair, we show you how you can play in a different league this season. James Mackey is with us ahead of Leeds vs Liverpool Saturday. Tee time is the big grudge match in the Betfair office, James, we know that much. It's a bit of a sort of underrated Premier League classic, this one over the years as well. How do you see it going?

[James Mackey]

Yeah, you're absolutely bang on, Matt. 5:30 kickoff looks an absolute cracker under the lights at Elham Rhodes. And as you said in the Betfair offices labeled the Boise Mackie Derby, the Betfair sportsbook has the home side as the three to one outsiders to win the game. And you can see why. With Leeds having won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Liverpool and have won just one of their last 16 Premier League games against the reigning Champions League. Liverpool are the 46 favourites, which does look quite short with their current form. But on figures, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games against Leeds. With The Reds last two Premier League victories against Leeds having been 6 nil and 61 scorelines just had to get that one in for boys in. I reminded him earlier today the draw is priced at 2310 with Liverpool managing actually their first stalemate of the season on Wednesday against Sunderland. But the last time these two played out the draw was back in 2021. So the odds suggest that Liverpool should win the game Matt. But on paper and looking how they play this season especially at Elland Road I think it's going to be a bit tougher than that.

[Matt Davis]

Yeah I saw Leeds Chelsea on Wednesday night was very impressed with Leeds as home side.

[Cerys]

Right.

[Matt Davis]

We love a bet. Build a bit of a controversial one this week James because you've included Mohamed Salah It's a good job we got safe sub.

[James Mackey]

Yeah you're absolutely right and it was basically my thought process off the back of Wednesday Eden against Sunderland he came on and he was probably the most influential player on the pitch when he came on. So I like to think that Arneslop will give him that start. The three legged bet builder this week comes out around six one all focus around three different players. We'll start with the sole leads man in the bet Dominic Calvert. Lewin who has had at least one shot on target in each of his last five Premier League appearances against Liverpool. Obviously fans will remember him being a massive part of when Everton played Liverpool and he's also found some form in front of goal of late scoring in his last two games. So he's one to two for a shot on target and that goes into the bet builders to kick us off as you mentioned for Liverpool Mohamed Salah he features this week and he scored nine goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Leeds. He loves scoring against Leeds scoring in all five starts against them. He's not started his last two games like I said but let's hope fingers crossed he does. But obviously we have saved sub in the market so if a player does start ahead of him and as Salah comes on for them that leg then carries on that part of the Bet he's a 54 to score any time in the bet build. And finally for Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch has conceded two fouls in three of his last games while making two plus tackles in four of his last six matches. He's six to five to commit two or more fouls on Saturday which to me looks a little bit of value. So overall those three selections come together for around a 6 to 1 bet builder. And the beauty of the three legs mentioned is that they have safe sub attached to them meaning that if those legs haven't won and they come off, the player that replaces them carries on that leg of the bet. It's a great tool for punters to take advantage of this season on Enable markets. Mark.

[Matt Davis]

Sounds really good to me, James. Let's hope that whatever happens, that peace breaks out in the Bet Fair offices on Monday. We'll talk to you again soon.

[James Mackey]

Thanks, Matt.

[Podcast Producer/Host]

This is the Athletic FC podcast, proudly sponsored by Betfair.

[Matt Davis]

Now, Sunderland are in the midst of a tough run of games. After Anfield on Wednesday, it's a trip to the Etihad on Saturday. After that they host their old pals Newcastle. Manchester City coming into this one off the back of two wins that nearly weren't. Pep's peeps involved in a ludicrous game on Tuesday, almost throwing away a 51 lead at Craven Cottage as Fulham eventually got to within a goal. So Kerry, City winning games but the fight backs from the opposition in the last two must be worrying for Pep Guardiola.

[Cerys]

Yeah, bonkers. I mean, if you look at the goals that City scored against Fulham, the attack looks flowing. They're scoring really good quality chances. They have clear patterns. The defence just has moments of complete kind of brain lapse. And I don't really understand how they managed to switch off to Fulham's threats so much. I mean, Iwobi scores a nice goal from, you know, not distance but fairly far out unmarked. Jacoesi then scores twice from a similar distance unmarked. I don't understand how they've not switched onto that threat and have opened themselves up to a comeback from what should have been a position of safety. So that'll be a massive concern for Guardiola.

[Matt Davis]

Sort of a little bit similar to Liverpool at the start of the season.

[James Mackey]

Tim.

[Matt Davis]

Like is this the sign of champions that you know, they're getting results even though they're not not playing great? Or is it going to be something that is unsustainable? Like the Liverpool thing was?

[Tim Spears]

I mean both collapses were extraordinary. I think the Leeds one almost as much as the Fulham one because City being sort of 2 nil up at home at half time to a relegation candidate. I think they had the highest XG in the first half of any team this season. You know, they're so used to winning those games so comfortably, so to nearly draw that one and then obviously five went up in the week and cruising. I think they've conceded at least two goals in the last four matches and all competitions. If you compare that with the team that they're trying to chase in The Premier League, I mean, it's, it's not even comparable. You know, Arsenal barely concede a goal all season. But this is City now. You know, they only had, they only had 43% possession against Fulham, which is almost as startling as the, as the comeback. You know, it's by design that they've done that. You know, Guardiola has relinquished control, I guess, in a bid to make them more dynamic and unpredictable. They do look better in attack as a result, but they're so inconsistent in results too. I don't see how they challenge Arsenal, who are just the complete opposite in terms of consistency and robustness and being hard to beat at the moment.

[Matt Davis]

Nothing for Sunderland to fear then, Caris, particularly given the way that they performed on the road as well. You think that they've won at Chelsea, they've held Liverpool at Anfield. They ought to go into this with a bit of confidence.

[Cerys]

I think what's really impressed me about Sunderland is, you know, at the start of the season they were playing with a lot of teams who come up to the Premier League and who try to approach it defensively, just don't have the discipline or the quality to be able to keep Premier League sides out. Sunderland showed that they have that, they showed the discipline and now they're adding that confidence. You know, if you take that Talby goal midweek, capitalizing on a really poor clearance, you spot the opportunity and he just takes it. And they can be, you know, so dangerous on the counter attack too. I think it's not a very technical thing to say, but the key thing for Sunderland is to just rattle City early on by showing their directness, take potshots. They've shown that they can come off at times if they spot an opportunity, if they spot a lob. I think Donnarummer's confidence is not an all time high at the moment. I think they need to pepper that goal. City will give up those opportunities. They just need to be clinical with them. And then when they're out of possession, showing the same discipline that has got them this already. But yeah, I think they've got a really good chance in this game.

[Matt Davis]

All right, so we'll move on Tim from the slightly reductive Blackpool and Hole comparisons for Sunderland and ask when do they become genuine contenders for European qualifications? Is it post afcon when we see the impact that losing all those players has had?

[Tim Spears]

Yeah. I mean, the table's still a bit nuts, isn't it? Last season I think your boys, Matt got 65 points for Europe in seventh. So Sunderland currently 23 from 14, so they would need 42 points from their last 24 games, which is just about, they're sort of just about on target for that. But the table's going to stretch out. The concern for me in a sort of a geeky way is this is the underlying numbers, which to be fair, are normally a decent guide. And you look at Sunderland's XG being the sort of 17th highest in the league or the fourth worst, and their XG against is sort of the ninth worst in the league. So, you know, they're basically massively outperforming their numbers. Nothing wrong with that, but it just suggests that over time that won't last. They play with such a huge amount of intensity and aggression. You know, one of the reasons I love, I love watching them, I think they're, they're the most fun teams watching the Premier League right now. They have such momentum, but I think fatigue will come into it at some point. I think it'll be more difficult playing teams the second time around, which suggests a bit of a leveling out. You know, we saw something similar with Forest last season, who were obviously very strong Champions League contenders at one point and then really dropped out. But this isn't a very sort of fun answer. I think that the story of the season so far, I absolutely love watching them and, you know, long may it continue. Don't underestimate that sort of momentum and that belief and the sort of atmosphere at the stadium alight, you know, that can take them pretty far. It took them to almost beating Arsenal, it took them to beating Chelsea, took them to almost beating Liverpool. So yeah, they're on a hell of a run right now.

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[Podcast Producer/Host]

This is the Athletic FC podcast proudly sponsored by Betfair.

[Matt Davis]

Kicking off the weekend's action, the league's most informed team who hosts the league leaders. It's Aston Villa versus Arsenal. Should be fun. Villa 4 Three winners against Brighton at the Amex. That means it's eight victories from their last nine games. How on earth have they turned this around so dramatically? Carius? They didn't even score in their first four.

[Cerys]

It's incredibly bizarre the way that they've managed to recover it. I think Unai Emery deserves a lot of credit for the faith that he has bought himself at that club and in that dressing room. That they weren't too quick to react to the problems that were showing at the start of the season. That they had the faith in him to turn it around. I think they've got a very cohesive group and a manager that has a good bond with that group, which is an obvious thing to say, but I think something where the importance of that is really showing itself in how Villa have managed to turn it around. Ollie Watkins kind of rediscovering a bit more form as well. Definitely helping, but their turnaround has been really impressive. The question now is sort of, you know, as you go into a very busy period, how does it hold up.

[Matt Davis]

To that Arsenal wise Tim routine 2 Nil win against Brentford midweek. Makeshift striker Mikel Marino on the score sheet again. Can we stop calling him makeshift striker and start call a make happen striker.

[Tim Spears]

It's very catchy. Yeah, he's the new Paul Warhurst isn't he, Matt? I think a little reference for the kids there. Yes. Six games, four goals, three assists. Like he's a. He's an FPL must at the moment, which no one was sort of expecting the start of season. I mean, it's weird. He's not as good a finisher as Gyokeres. You know, he's nowhere near as sort of powerful or as quick, but he's definitely a better bet for sort of a focal point right now in Arsenal's attack. What does that come down to? I guess you have to say football intelligence more than anything, and being very aware of his strengths and his limitations, but particularly strengths in terms of his aerial ability and his movement. So, yeah, I think that's the best way for them to go right now. Him starting and Gyokerez on the bench. It doesn't say much for Gyokeres, but it's certainly working for Arsenal at the moment.

[Matt Davis]

Only thing that might slow Arsenal against Kerris is all these injuries. Mosquera forced off in the first half, Saliba and Gabriel on the sidelines, and producer Jay was telling me that Urian Timber might play center half. I guess can move Califiore or Ben White there as well. So they do have options, but they can't afford to keep losing players.

[Cerys]

No, I think this is where Arsenal will be really tested on how different are they to the Arsenal teams that we have seen let title races just fall away from them in previous seasons. The squad depth that they've built has been really key to that. What's also really key is, like, you've just touched on the versatility of having players that can cover each other, not needing, like, for, like, replacements. And I think that's something that in their defense, they've really improved. Their defense feels a lot more, you know, versatile in terms of who goes where in the back line, which is a really important point. But, you know, if you compare it to last season when they didn't have Saka, Havertz, Jesus, it really hurt their attacking depth this season, even while Havertz and Jesus have been out. You know, they've had your careers, they've had Eza, they've had Trossard, and it feels like a much healthier squad and one where you're not looking at any one player particularly, and thinking you being out for four weeks would really kill this team's momentum. I don't think that's an issue that it feels they have at the moment, which is positive for their title hopes. But if their Players keep dropping off like this, this is where we'll kind of see what they're really made of. And have they built enough? Have they got the confidence more so as well? And the self belief to actually push through those injuries and not to use them as not excuses feels harsh because it is, you know, it's valid reasons to be struggling more when you've got key players out. But rather than seeing those injuries as justification for why form might fall off, can they use it as fuel to prove that they're not the same as the teams that have gone before them, that have come so close and fallen just short?

[Matt Davis]

Villa, Tim, in the same position Chelsea were last week. If they can beat Arsenal, they'll go to within three points of them. Can we put them in the title race? I mean, it's not really a title race, is it? We're just trying to manufacture this before Arsenal, go on and wrap it up in the middle of April and win the League by six points.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, yeah, I think, I think you're probably right. But if Villa do beaten this weekend, then you know, the tart race is still on. It's not, it's not, it's not a great surprise. Looking at Villa generally, obviously, I know they made a very slow start to season and everyone was kind of wondering what's happened to them. But if you remember two years ago, they were in this very similar position on the sort of the fringes of the title race, sort of heading towards Christmas. Two years ago, they were only one point behind Arsenal, who were top of the table at the time. And if they win this weekend, they'll be sort of three points behind Arsenal. Yeah, it's been a very similar team for sort of two, three years now. The Champions League really got in the way last season and affected their league form and ultimately their finishing position. Squad depth was an issue last year. Squad depth is still an issue for me, but I think that block in midfield, you know, Kamara McGinn, Anana and then sort of Rodgers and Telemans, you've got it. You've got everything you need in there for a Premier League midfield in defense and attack, you know, physicality, work rate, creativity, very hard to play through, very hard to play against. They've got absolutely everything you need. So when they've got their first 11 out and they're on song, they're one of the best teams in the league for sure. And the form of Ollie Watkins is going to be crucial to them sort of keeping this up in terms of the top four. But yeah, it's been a hell of a turnaround for them, but ultimately, when you look at the results over the last sort of three years, it's not that much of a surprise.

[Matt Davis]

Tottenham versus Brentford, one of five Saturday, three o' clock kickoffs this weekend. Frankly, the last thing Thomas needs is his ex popping over to see how terrible things are going in his new relationship. Christian Romero's brace rescued a point for spurs at St. James as Parker. Brilliant header and an overhead kick that made people watching around the world go, I could do that. Tim, you ranked the happiness levels of every Premier League club. Spurs rock bottom in 20th. Did they have some positives to take away from St. James's park midweek?

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, it was a tough one, that ranking, because I know how unhappy I am as a Wolves fan, but I also, having covered spurs for a little while and sort of living in the area, I do know how miserable they are.

You know, after last weekend against Fulham, you kind of look at them and you look at teammates sort of arguing or teammates ignoring the manager or players ignoring the fans, or fans booing the players.

It's a whole sort of cycle of unhappiness, really. And in midweek, the crucial thing was nothing to do with the performance. It was just not losing a match because if they'd lost again, and then you got Brentford turning up this weekend and it's a recipe for absolute disaster, to be honest. But it was also important in winweek to show that they're still playing for Thomas Frank, which might sound ludicrous at this sort of early stage, but they've been so utterly hapless in so many games for so long now, or, you know, a month or two, that you have to question how strong that link is between team and manager, and defeat would have massively piled the pressure on. So, yeah, just great to get out of there with a point, with a late point, and then they look to build on that this weekend.

[Matt Davis]

Terrible home record, Caris, but I guess if you're. If you're glass half full from a Spurs perspective, this ought to be the easiest game of the season for Frank to prepare for.

[Momentous/Grainger Advertiser]

Right.

[Matt Davis]

He knows what Brentford are going to do and who's going to do it for them.

[Cerys]

Yeah, definitely. He's obviously familiar with the setup and not much has, I don't think, changed. Keith Andrews has made a few tweaks with the squad that he's now got to adjust for, transfers that have been made and so on. But fundamentally, Brentford are still the similar outfit to the one that Frank is very Used to. So he knows exactly what he's going into. But I think that's kind of what will worry spurs fans is that they know what they're going into as well. If you're talking about the kind of lack of togetherness that seems apparent in that Tottenham team at the moment, and then you look towards Brentford, it's a side that they all look like they know what they're doing. They look like they know how they link up with each other. They have some clear patterns, how they know they're going to create goals, how they're going to create chances. They're good from set pieces. Spurs are not exactly running a tight ship when it comes to the defence at the moment. They have so many little blinks in concentration that are really costing them. And I just think this is. If Brentford scored, you know, the script plays out with an early long throw and a header. Potentially a Vicario mistake. I just think that the atmosphere could really work against them very quickly.

[Matt Davis]

Positive as well for Spurs, Tim. As bad as their home record is, Brentford actually lost six of seven on the road in the league so far. They, you know, they won at West Ham, but. But haven't we all? Is this a classic case of Dr. Tottenham? We'll see you now.

[Tim Spears]

I mean, so spurs have won one in seven at home and Brentford have won one in seven away.

It's a good question, Matt. I mean, so spurs have also won three of their last 21 at home in the Premier League. I worked out in the week that you sort of average spurs season ticket price, which is pretty. Which is pretty pricey. That's roughly sort of 500 quid a win, if you're looking at that over a season. Which is, you know, it's quite a lot of money. It's quite a lot of money. I mean, they've got to be. They've got to be the worst first half home team we've ever seen in the Premier League. Their XG numbers are absolutely horrific. I think there was 0.01 against Fulham last week in the first half, following up on 0.00 against Arsenal away the previous week. I think against Chelsea at home at the start of November, it was sort of 0.1 over the full 90 minutes. It's just. It's astonishing, the numbers that they're putting up, the lack of shots that they're having to have at home. This home form is. It's no coincidence. It must be the hardest place to play in in the country right now. They've just got this losing Mentality. Fans are turning up knowing that they're going to lose and sort of generating no atmosphere at all. They're getting on the players backs. The Vicario stuff last week, I understand where Thomas Frank's coming from in terms of having a go at the players, but it's just borne out of so much frustration over weeks and weeks and weeks. So, yeah, I guess you're sort of questioning now if it's too big a job for Thomas Frank and combining Europe with the Premier League seems to be beyond him. And sorting out the home form is going to be crucial to all that. I think Brentford's the worst team for him to be playing right now, having seen them a few times this season. You know, Igor Thiago's almost the form striker in the league right now and someone like Michael Coyote is so the long throws are good enough, but he's so dynamic and so aggressive in his play. I don't think spurs are going to appreciate playing against him. Jordan Henderson's in great form. Dams guard. I think they've got more than enough to. To trouble Spurs. I would really worry for Thomas Frank this weekend.

[Cerys]

I think they've got more than enough to trouble spurs, but also spurs have struggled to create and look like they have any sort of threat or dynamism against teams that can play quite sort of open and expansive football. That leaves them kind of there for the taking. Brentford are very, very good at. Even though they've got that attacking dynamism, they're so organised at the back, they're so solid and difficult to break down. And spurs don't look like they could kind of break down even the more open teams in the league right now. So I just think they're really going to struggle and I think this is a. A point at which the. The atmosphere at that ground is. Is threatening to become even, even more toxic as we've. We've seen it do in the past. It. It doesn't look good for them at the moment.

[Matt Davis]

All right, Febrile for Frank, potentially at the weekend, then. That's where we're going to wrap things up for today. Plenty to look forward to this weekend. My thanks to Cerys, to Tim and to producer Jay, but mainly to you for listening. Enjoy the football. We'll catch up with you soon.

[Podcast Producer/Host]

You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producer was J Beal and the presenter was Matt Davis. Adams executive producers are Abby Patterson and A.Y.

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Morehead.

[Podcast Producer/Host]

The Athletic FC Podcast is an Athletic media company production and proudly sponsored by betfair.

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