The Athletic FC Podcast: "Where Have All the Elite Strikers Gone?"

Release Date: January 28, 2025

Hosts and Guests:

• Host: Ayo Akinwolere
• Guests: David Ornstein (Football Correspondent), Phil Hay (Lead Writer, Athletic FC Newsletter), Mark Carey (Senior Data Writer)

1. Introduction: The Striker Shortage Dilemma (00:59 - 04:40)

Ayo Akinwolere kicks off the episode by highlighting a pressing issue in modern football: the apparent scarcity of elite strikers. This discussion is sparked by Aston Villa's potential sale of John Duran for around £18 million, as revealed by David Ornstein.

David Ornstein explains, “[02:43]... there definitely is a scarcity of them, but I think it probably points more to the fact that Duran is a fairly big emerging talent rather than he's specifically a center forward...” He emphasizes that the high valuation reflects not just his position but his emerging potential and the market's demand for top-tier players.

2. The Guardiola Effect and Tactical Evolution (08:22 - 10:31)

The conversation delves into how Pep Guardiola's tactical philosophies have transformed the role of the striker. David Ornstein notes, “[08:22]... the out and out classic nine has been less of a priority for coaches, certainly elite coaches, than ever before.” He attributes this shift to the Tiki Taka style, which favors versatile forwards who can drift and link up play, rather than traditional center-forwards.

Mark Carey adds, “[10:31]... we're in the age of more generalists than specialists,” highlighting that modern forwards are expected to be adaptable, contributing both offensively and defensively. This versatility makes the development of specialized strikers at youth academies less common.

3. Defining the Modern Striker: Consistency and Versatility (19:30 - 21:31)

Ayo probes into what distinguishes a top striker, contrasting players like Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak with those like Darwin Núñez, who have immense potential but lack consistency.

Mark Carey responds, “[20:01]... the key word I'd say... is the consistency,” emphasizing that elite strikers consistently meet their expected goals (XG) over multiple seasons. He contrasts Isak’s steady performance with Núñez’s inconsistent finishing, underscoring the importance of reliability in goal-scoring.

4. Evolution of Striker Roles Across Europe (27:23 - 34:06)

The discussion broadens beyond the Premier League, examining top strikers across Europe. Mark Carey categorizes strikers into three groups:

1. Out-and-Out Number Nines: Examples include Haaland, Harry Kane, and Robert Lewandowski—players who spearhead attacks with consistent goal scoring.
2. Forwards More Than Strikers: Players like Mo Salah and Kylian Mbappé who primarily play on the wings but contribute significantly to scoring.
3. General Forwards: Versatile players like Omar Mahmouch and Brandon Bermo, who can operate across the front line.

He mentions emerging talents such as Ricardo Pepé from PSV Eindhoven and Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig, who show promise but need to prove their consistency at higher levels.

5. Recruitment Strategies of Smaller Clubs (34:06 - 35:48)

When discussing how clubs like Brentford and Brighton successfully recruit strikers, David Ornstein highlights their effective use of data-driven approaches. They identify undervalued players and develop them to fit their system, citing Ollie Watkins’ successful transition from the Championship to Aston Villa as a prime example.

Mark Carey adds, “[34:06]... recruitment is everything,” stressing the necessity of meticulous scouting and data analysis to find and nurture talent within budget constraints.

6. Building the Perfect Number Nine: A Fun Segment (39:35 - 44:41)

In a lighthearted yet insightful segment, Ayo challenges Mark Carey and David Ornstein to create the "perfect number nine" by selecting body parts from current strikers. Highlights include:

• Mark Carey’s Choices:

  • Football Brain: Harry Kane ([40:41])
  • Left Foot: John Duran ([40:38])
  • Right Foot: Robert Lewandowski ([40:55])
  • Speed: Loïs Appenda ([41:17])
  • Strength: Victor Jacares ([41:28])
  • Heading Ability: Erling Haaland ([42:06])

• David Ornstein’s Choices:

  • Football Brain: Jack ([42:56])
  • Right Foot: Rafael Heinze ([43:35])
  • Left Foot: Magnus Auçi ([43:57])
  • Speed: Kylian Mbappé ([44:10])
  • Strength: Victor Jacares ([44:17])
  • Heading Ability: Robert Lewandowski ([44:37])

This playful exchange underscores the multifaceted qualities required of a modern striker, blending technical skills, physical attributes, and mental acuity.

7. Conclusion: Aston Villa’s Striker Conundrum (45:11 - 47:19)

Wrapping up, David Ornstein provides an update on John Duran's situation at Aston Villa. He explains, “[45:28]... Villa are blessed with two in the form of Ollie Watkins and John Duram... there’s a growing sense that something might have to give, that it’s unsustainable.” The club faces a dilemma: whether to sell Duran to accommodate both forward talents or risk internal competition disrupting team harmony.

Phil Hay adds further insight, noting the complexities of managing a squad with multiple elite forwards and the potential strategic moves Villa might consider as the transfer window progresses.

Key Takeaways:

• Scarcity of Elite Strikers: High demand coupled with tactical shifts has made top strikers rare and highly valued.

• Tactical Evolution: Modern football favors versatile, generalist forwards over traditional, specialized number nines, heavily influenced by Guardiola’s philosophies.

• Consistency is King: Elite strikers distinguish themselves through consistent goal-scoring performance aligned with their expected goals (XG).

• Data-Driven Recruitment: Successful clubs utilize advanced data analytics to identify and develop undervalued striker talents within budget constraints.

• Emerging Talent: Europe hosts a plethora of young strikers with potential, but only those who demonstrate consistency and adaptability will cement their status.

• Striker Composition: The ideal modern number nine is a blend of technical prowess, physical strength, mental intelligence, and versatility across multiple attributes.

Notable Quotes:

• David Ornstein [02:43]: “There definitely is a scarcity of them, but I think it probably points more to the fact that Duran is a fairly big emerging talent rather than he's specifically a center forward...”

• Mark Carey [10:31]: “We're in the age of more generalists than specialists.”

• Mark Carey [20:01]: “The key word I'd say... is the consistency.”

• David Ornstein [34:06]: “Recruitment is everything.”

Final Thoughts:

The episode presents a comprehensive analysis of the current striker landscape in football, exploring the interplay between tactical evolution, player versatility, and recruitment strategies. It underscores the increasing difficulty in finding traditional number nines and highlights the importance of adaptability and consistent performance in modern forwards.

For those interested in the intricacies of football strategy and player development, this episode offers valuable insights into the evolving role of strikers in top-tier football.