Where have all the elite strikers gone?

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast: "Where Have All the Elite Strikers Gone?"

Release Date: January 28, 2025

Hosts and Guests:

• Host: Ayo Akinwolere
• Guests: David Ornstein (Football Correspondent), Phil Hay (Lead Writer, Athletic FC Newsletter), Mark Carey (Senior Data Writer)

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1. Introduction: The Striker Shortage Dilemma (00:59 - 04:40)

Ayo Akinwolere kicks off the episode by highlighting a pressing issue in modern football: the apparent scarcity of elite strikers. This discussion is sparked by Aston Villa's potential sale of John Duran for around £18 million, as revealed by David Ornstein.

David Ornstein explains, “[02:43]... there definitely is a scarcity of them, but I think it probably points more to the fact that Duran is a fairly big emerging talent rather than he's specifically a center forward...” He emphasizes that the high valuation reflects not just his position but his emerging potential and the market's demand for top-tier players.

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2. The Guardiola Effect and Tactical Evolution (08:22 - 10:31)

The conversation delves into how Pep Guardiola's tactical philosophies have transformed the role of the striker. David Ornstein notes, “[08:22]... the out and out classic nine has been less of a priority for coaches, certainly elite coaches, than ever before.” He attributes this shift to the Tiki Taka style, which favors versatile forwards who can drift and link up play, rather than traditional center-forwards.

Mark Carey adds, “[10:31]... we're in the age of more generalists than specialists,” highlighting that modern forwards are expected to be adaptable, contributing both offensively and defensively. This versatility makes the development of specialized strikers at youth academies less common.

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3. Defining the Modern Striker: Consistency and Versatility (19:30 - 21:31)

Ayo probes into what distinguishes a top striker, contrasting players like Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak with those like Darwin Núñez, who have immense potential but lack consistency.

Mark Carey responds, “[20:01]... the key word I'd say... is the consistency,” emphasizing that elite strikers consistently meet their expected goals (XG) over multiple seasons. He contrasts Isak’s steady performance with Núñez’s inconsistent finishing, underscoring the importance of reliability in goal-scoring.

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4. Evolution of Striker Roles Across Europe (27:23 - 34:06)

The discussion broadens beyond the Premier League, examining top strikers across Europe. Mark Carey categorizes strikers into three groups:

1. Out-and-Out Number Nines: Examples include Haaland, Harry Kane, and Robert Lewandowski—players who spearhead attacks with consistent goal scoring.
2. Forwards More Than Strikers: Players like Mo Salah and Kylian Mbappé who primarily play on the wings but contribute significantly to scoring.
3. General Forwards: Versatile players like Omar Mahmouch and Brandon Bermo, who can operate across the front line.

He mentions emerging talents such as Ricardo Pepé from PSV Eindhoven and Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig, who show promise but need to prove their consistency at higher levels.

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5. Recruitment Strategies of Smaller Clubs (34:06 - 35:48)

When discussing how clubs like Brentford and Brighton successfully recruit strikers, David Ornstein highlights their effective use of data-driven approaches. They identify undervalued players and develop them to fit their system, citing Ollie Watkins’ successful transition from the Championship to Aston Villa as a prime example.

Mark Carey adds, “[34:06]... recruitment is everything,” stressing the necessity of meticulous scouting and data analysis to find and nurture talent within budget constraints.

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6. Building the Perfect Number Nine: A Fun Segment (39:35 - 44:41)

In a lighthearted yet insightful segment, Ayo challenges Mark Carey and David Ornstein to create the "perfect number nine" by selecting body parts from current strikers. Highlights include:

• Mark Carey’s Choices:

  • Football Brain: Harry Kane ([40:41])
  • Left Foot: John Duran ([40:38])
  • Right Foot: Robert Lewandowski ([40:55])
  • Speed: Loïs Appenda ([41:17])
  • Strength: Victor Jacares ([41:28])
  • Heading Ability: Erling Haaland ([42:06])

• David Ornstein’s Choices:

  • Football Brain: Jack ([42:56])
  • Right Foot: Rafael Heinze ([43:35])
  • Left Foot: Magnus Auçi ([43:57])
  • Speed: Kylian Mbappé ([44:10])
  • Strength: Victor Jacares ([44:17])
  • Heading Ability: Robert Lewandowski ([44:37])

This playful exchange underscores the multifaceted qualities required of a modern striker, blending technical skills, physical attributes, and mental acuity.

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7. Conclusion: Aston Villa’s Striker Conundrum (45:11 - 47:19)

Wrapping up, David Ornstein provides an update on John Duran's situation at Aston Villa. He explains, “[45:28]... Villa are blessed with two in the form of Ollie Watkins and John Duram... there’s a growing sense that something might have to give, that it’s unsustainable.” The club faces a dilemma: whether to sell Duran to accommodate both forward talents or risk internal competition disrupting team harmony.

Phil Hay adds further insight, noting the complexities of managing a squad with multiple elite forwards and the potential strategic moves Villa might consider as the transfer window progresses.

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Key Takeaways:

• Scarcity of Elite Strikers: High demand coupled with tactical shifts has made top strikers rare and highly valued.

• Tactical Evolution: Modern football favors versatile, generalist forwards over traditional, specialized number nines, heavily influenced by Guardiola’s philosophies.

• Consistency is King: Elite strikers distinguish themselves through consistent goal-scoring performance aligned with their expected goals (XG).

• Data-Driven Recruitment: Successful clubs utilize advanced data analytics to identify and develop undervalued striker talents within budget constraints.

• Emerging Talent: Europe hosts a plethora of young strikers with potential, but only those who demonstrate consistency and adaptability will cement their status.

• Striker Composition: The ideal modern number nine is a blend of technical prowess, physical strength, mental intelligence, and versatility across multiple attributes.

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Notable Quotes:

• David Ornstein [02:43]: “There definitely is a scarcity of them, but I think it probably points more to the fact that Duran is a fairly big emerging talent rather than he's specifically a center forward...”

• Mark Carey [10:31]: “We're in the age of more generalists than specialists.”

• Mark Carey [20:01]: “The key word I'd say... is the consistency.”

• David Ornstein [34:06]: “Recruitment is everything.”

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Final Thoughts:

The episode presents a comprehensive analysis of the current striker landscape in football, exploring the interplay between tactical evolution, player versatility, and recruitment strategies. It underscores the increasing difficulty in finding traditional number nines and highlights the importance of adaptability and consistent performance in modern forwards.

For those interested in the intricacies of football strategy and player development, this episode offers valuable insights into the evolving role of strikers in top-tier football.

Transcript

[Ayo Akinwale]

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[Mark Carey]

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[Ayo Akinwale]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Ayo Akimwaleri. As revealed by David Ornstein on today's deal sheet, Aston Villa could be tempted to sell John Duran for around 18 million pounds. That valuation of the Villa striker got us thinking. What makes a top number nine in 20? Here's Jon Duran takes the shot.

[Mark Carey]

Duran.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Oh brilliant.

[Phil Hay]

Oh my word.

[Ayo Akinwale]

The 20 year old kid from Colombia.

[David Ornstein]

Has just lit up Villa park with.

[Ayo Akinwale]

A world class finish. And with many teams wanting an elite striker, why is it so hard to find them? With us today we have the lead writer for the Athletic FC newsletter, Phil Hay, and our senior data writer Mark Carey as well. Phil, let's talk about this Duran conversation now. Villa want around £80 million for him. Does that kind of money for a player who actually isn't starting week in week out point to a fact that actually there is a bit of a scarcity for a top number nine right now in the market?

[David Ornstein]

There definitely is a scarcity of them, but I think it probably points more to the fact that Duran is a fairly big emerging talent rather than he's specifically a center forward or an Ainuki. He's 21, so he's not extraordinarily young, but he's still short of his peak years. And he's showing some really, really tidy potential at Villa. And I think we're seeing a trend more and more where clubs in possession of really promising assets like Duran go very high with the pricing and think that if they do, they're likely to claw in the money that they're looking for, because clubs out there want good players, want top players, elite players, and somebody eventually tends to go to the sort of mark that you're after. I'd also say we seem to be a bit beyond the era where one specific position creates a premium transfer value. It's not to say that forwards or nines aren't still going to be very, very expensive. But Declayan Rice cleared £100 million. I mean, that's what they were talking about Villa wanting for Duran. Whether or not that is just bluster and a bit of bravado, and whether it would be more like 70, 80, 90 in reality, we'll find out at some stage, I would think. But Jude Bellingham would easily go for more than £100 million. I think Rodriguez would be the case with him, too. And players who aren't out and out nines, Florian Verts Musiala over in Germany, I think, fall into that. That sort of bracket. But it is definitely a fact that nines, as we understand them, are more and more limited these days. And I'm sure we're going to broaden this discussion out in quite a wide way. But I do think it's got something to do with the way that football was shaped tactically for much of the Pep Guardiola coaching area, particularly at the outset. What is really striking to me, and you mentioned this, is that Villa are asking for money in that sort of ballpark, you know, creeping up towards £100 million. For somebody in Duran who's made seven Premier League starts, that's quite a game of risk versus reward in my eyes.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah. I want to talk about the Pep Guardiola effect a little later on, Phil, for sure. But let's focus on the idea of a center forward. And Phil has touched on it, actually, the fact that other players are now going for big money across the field. Mark. But I do also think about Harry Kane's transfer to Bayern Munich. You know, the back end of his career still went for really, really top money. It's quite easy to quantify what a good striker does on the field, isn't it? It's still the glory position, it's still the fireworks on the field, you know, like good ones will still garner high transfer fees.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, that's never going to change, is it? Across. I mean it hasn't across the history of football. It's not going to in the future because goals, as you say, are the most valuable commodity in football really. So I think it makes sense that you're going to look to find players who can score a lot of them. And the whole point of this podcast is to maybe suggest that those specialists potentially are in short supply. But I think, yeah, broadly speaking to your point, IO, I think attacking actions are the easiest to quantify when I'm doing my data analysis. It's the presence of an action rather than the absence of an action when we're talking about these strikers. Or you could broaden out to forwards in general, of course you're thinking about chances created, assists, cross is shots, of course. And you can go into a bit more in depth looking at advanced metrics like expected goals. Yeah, alert the siren there for my first expected goals XG chat. But you can look to go into a little bit more depth and see how well a striker is actually trying to get those goal scoring chances and how sustainable that is. And I think this is relevant to the Duran example and how they are maybe over or underperforming their goal scoring against their expected goals to see if they're in a purple patch or in a bit of a quiet period, whatever it may be. I think Phil probably give the example of Patrick Bamford across his career in that regard as well. But broadly speaking, yes, I mean, I don't want to go too much into other positions, but it's a lot more tricky to accurately quantify what a defensive midfielder does or a centre back does because like I said before, it's more the absence of certain actions that is the best traits of a defensive midfielder, specifically a centre back, because it might be their strong positioning that actually stops a run being made, a pass being made in the first place. And that's really hard to see, at least from the data perspective. And there are models that look to overall look at a player's contribution further up the sequence chain than maybe shots or goals. And I won't bore people with it too much, but things like possession value and expected threat looks to quantify everybody's action to make it fair. But yeah, I definitely agree, like shots, goals, assists, chances created, etc. They're quite straightforward to measure, quite easy to spot who is an elite striker, an elite forward, because you can see it in the numbers. You can see it by your eye as well.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, Phil, I just want to pick up on what you talked about, the Pep Guardiola effect, because, you know, I was looking at the top 10 Premier League strikers in 2004, 2005 season. You're looking at obviously the names like Thierry Henry, Andrew Johnson, obviously at Crystal palace is in there. Jermaine Defoe, Jimmy Floyd, Hasselbank, Yakubu, Andy Cole, Peter Crouch, Gudjonson, all number nines. And then you've got Frank Lampard in there, Robert Perez, midfielder, winger. And then you take it a bit further down the line to today, names like Mo Salah pop in there, Mbuemo pop in there, you know, Cunha pop in there. Wide players, Cole Palmer, midfielders pop in there. I mean, how much have we seen that evolution of how the goals are shared change in the Premier League over the last 10 years? And you know, I'm looking at Pep Guardiola, who basically won the Premier League without a recognizable striker. Has he changed the way we are looking at how we are looking at goal scorers now in the Premier League? And Mark, please drop in after Phil.

[David Ornstein]

Oh, no question about that at all. I mean, over the past 10, 15 years, it feels as if the out and out classic nine has been less of a priority for coaches, certainly elite coaches, than ever before. Everybody tactically started to follow the Guardiola model of Tiki Taka, as it was called at Barcelona, which famously made Lionel Messi a false 9. That withdrawn position as a forward further back from what you'd expect, a classic centre forward, where you'd expect a classic centre forward to be. And that obviously became massively fashionable. It's worth discussion for two reasons, I think. Firstly, Guardiola signing Erling Haaland from Borussia Dortmund has almost brought the traditional number nine back into fashion and are back into vogue. And your thoughts there about transfer fees? I think two things to point out would be that Haaland would have been far more expensive had it not been for the fact that there was a release provision in his contract at Borussia Dortmund. And similarly with Kylian Mbappe, you would assume that had he been under contract at PSG when he was signed, he would probably have broken the world transfer record. All gone pretty close to what was paid for for Neymar. But the interesting thing about City as well, and I don't know whether Mark did this piece last week, but I saw on the Athletic A viz which was showing there's so few sides now seem to be doing what Manchester City and Guardiola do. You know, the sort of high possession go to model as it was a little while back doesn't seem to be anywhere near so popular or anywhere near in fashion. The game and the mindset seems to to be changing. But one thing that I wondered, and again, Mark may have some thoughts on this because of Guardiola's initial influence and the way in which he was using forwards and particularly somebody like Messi. I wonder how many, you know, top academies across Europe have really been trying to generate actual number nines. You know, it would be really interesting to know whether this sort of obsession with Tiki Taka led to youth development systems just starting to care about out and out center forwards less because as we said that European football is not swimming in them. They are, they are pretty limited.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, I mean, I totally agree. I think that we're moving more towards a way of, of players being in all positions really. You look at the way that fullbacks are coming inside and being so versatile that, you know, center backs as well, of course, goalkeepers being, you know, so much being demanded of them. I think we're in the age of more generalists than specialists. I think you kind of knew where you stood in maybe the early 2000s of what a player was, was good at. And you try and fit, you know, find the best way to, to fit around the best players and a style of play around that. Whereas now it's, it's being versatile to be able to adapt to different situations. And sometimes to Phil's point about the style of play, I mean, sometimes a team might need to go long, sometimes they might need to press high, sometimes they might need to drop in for a little bit. And I'm not suggesting that that isn't what teams did in the, you know, in the history of football. But I do think the information that a player has to take on board now and adapt to from a forward perspective, but also from a defensive perspective means that they are so versatile and they are generalists. And I think the common thing at the elite level when a player signs in forward areas is that they can often play anywhere across the front line. And so I've often got my Liverpool hat on. And you look at Luis Diaz assigned as a left winger, currently playing as a number nine, pulling into those wide areas with Cody Gak, who only last season was also playing number nine, at times sort of drifting into a false area. And at times even though Mo Salah is a left footed right winger by trade. He has played through the center across his Liverpool career as well. Every single one of those are able to drift into different positions and you could extrapolate that to so many players across so many forward lines at the elite level across Europe and worldwide. So I think it's whether that's because of Pep Guardiola or he's maybe catalyzed that as probably the case. But I definitely agree with Phil that because we know that's the way that football, the direction of football was going, there's little point in then trying to train a specialist at the academy level when you need them then to get into the first team and be so versatile. So I think it's no coincidence that we're seeing almost like the iceberg analogy. I suppose we're seeing it right at the top end visibly, but all that work's going on in the background at the academy level to create these generalists.

[David Ornstein]

I've got a question about that, Mark. Do you think the strength of a player's feet, that is are they left footed or right footed, has ever mattered less in the grand scheme of analysis and recruitment? Is it even a thing when you're analyzing players anymore given how versatile they all are?

[Mark Carey]

It's a good question. We did something similar on the Tactics podcast a couple of weeks ago where we were talking about left footed players and how obviously there's fewer left footed players and left handed people in the world and how often they would be sort of thrown across to either left center back or left back because that was sort of needed for the balance of the team. And now. Well in the, in the past 10 years, should we say it's more likely that they'll, if they're any good going forward that there'll be a right winger coming inside onto their stronger foot. There's. It was an interesting chat that we had about there's not still that many, there's still a few again in recent years and at the moment left footed central midfielders. I don't know why that might be, but no, it's an interesting question. I'd probably say that is the case. But then you think about the importance of build up now and then passing angles and making sure that if you are a left footed left centre back that the passing angle playing to the full back is going ahead of them and a couple of yards is a big difference to the build up. It will then allow the opposition to press on you as a trigger if it's just slightly behind them so I'd probably say it still is super important to, to have, you know, the balance in the team. But I do broadly agree that yeah, it's not necessarily about the, yeah, the footedness but more the, the skill set and as come back to the general skill set that's required.

[David Ornstein]

Yeah.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Mark, I just want to have a little word on someone who's, I mean he's having such a season at the moment. Alexander isak at Newcastle, third highest scorer across Europe's top five league. 17 Premier League goals this season so far, only just behind Mo Salah and Haaland. What do you think makes him so unique as a striker? Because for me, yet again, is he a generalist or is he just a really solid number 9? His shots as good as the way he takes players on. He's a great dribbler and I don't know, he just reminds me of why I love football. He's got the skill and he gets the job done.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, no, I agree. I mean first and foremost he is a joy to watch, especially this season. I mean, to answer your question, I am probably going to defer to Jacob Whitehead here who wrote a piece that came out at the start of the week and I implore anybody to read it because it perfectly answers your question far better than I'm about to attempt.

[David Ornstein]

Don't butcher it then and just add to that as well. He did a fantastic profile on Isaac. I think it was last year when he went to Sweden and dug into his background and it, it shines a big light on why Isak is so talented.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, I totally agree. I mean the title of the piece that came out this week was how to Move Like Alexander Isaac. A Seven part Guide. So it breaks it down so beautifully and it is everything that, you know, obviously I agree with everything Jacob has written and it's his to that point. It's his ability to do so many things at an elite level and he has the physical profile to be a modern day striker. I think you do have to have, you know, a bit of height about you as well. Feels kind of like gone are the days of a Sergio Aguero and Michael Owen sort of profile. I could be wrong there, but you look at the likes of a Haaland and an Isak and a Lewandowski, they are all strong, tall, powerful players. But he spoke about his ability to drift into wide areas and come wider across both sides just to I guess confuse the centre backs and make sure that he's not marked. His ability to still come short and drop into maybe a bit more central areas and just link with with the midfielders. Of course he's got that elite finishing. I don't want to dwell on it too much but that goal against Southampton, the second one, the way that he took it with his left foot was perfect. It was absolutely perfect to then slot it in off the post. It was incredible finishing and his ability to take on players as well. I think that that's something that was maybe. Well it's still a key part of his game now but was a key part of his game at Real Sociedad as well. He would often pull more into wide channels. I think when he was signed he maybe wasn't thought of as a and out and out number nine because he was the players maybe coming in from wide areas. So he's still got that take on ability like a modern day winger and to that point as well running in behind and being that central number nine. He's got the pace and the power and he's got the aerial ability to go with it as well. So I mean I could carry on. Please read the Jacob Whitehead piece. But I think to that point about being a generalist. Yeah I agree that he's got all of those attributes but obviously the key part being that all of his attributes to an elite level, he's not really blunt in any of them. So you know it's been great to see him this season but keeping that over the next couple of seasons will really sort of take him to the next level.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Where does that put Arsenal then Phil? A team that glaringly need a top striker. What kind of striker suits that kind of system then from where you're sitting and Isaac naturally from what Mark's just been saying would be that. But I mean Newcastle would be pressed to let him go in the form he's in at this moment in time. But what kind of striker are we looking at? Someone a bit more specialist for that kind of formation and that style of play or someone that is like an E sack that can drift out wide, come in center and get the job done for them in various ways.

[David Ornstein]

Oh very much an ESAC for the reasons that have been outlined. I mean I sort of apologize to Newcastle support here because they seem to be rightly sick to death of him being linked to to Arsenal and the fact that Arsenal don't really seem to have the money to do this here and now and whether they do in the future we'll see. But it's going to be a stretch you would think is indicative of what I was saying earlier about how highly clubs value their top assets at. It's, it's a long, long time since scoring goals was enough from a center forward. I mean, don't get me wrong, if a center forward who's not scoring goals doesn't get very far either, there's got to be some balance in the middle. But just to pull a random example, I always whether or not Eddie Nketiah would have been, you know, would have been good enough long term to win Arsenal the title, I think is highly debatable. But it always seemed to me that one of the things that counted against Nketiah was that poaching was his game and poaching was his massive strength and something he was extremely good at. But the more all round game that somebody like Isak has is a bigger advantage to a coach like Arteta and a coach at that level. And you can work out for yourself what it is that Arsenal want because they are so keen on, on Isak. I just think that's going to be an extremely difficult deal for them to do. But when, when it comes to the punch and they actually do do a number nine which I think as time goes on they're going to have to. I think it will be somebody in that mold whether it's Isaac or not.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah. Mark, just before we start the pod we were just thinking actually what, what, what makes a. A top striker? Because you know, on one side of the section you've got the Harlands of this world, you've got the Isaacs of this world. On the other side of the spectrum, he' now but Darwin Nunes for instance, bags of ability but just something missing in the finishing and perhaps the decision making. What is it that makes that top striker? Is it a level headedness when you know the heat's on your shoulders or is it just instinctive in that respect?

[Mark Carey]

The key word I'd say, which I suppose speaks to the Isak point I made before was the consistency. I think that you've got all the, if we just speak about Darwin Nunes, he's got all the attributes to be an elite finisher but he as we all know, just lacks that consistency. So I'd say it's that really, it's, you know, if I was to think of it from a data perspective, it's, you know, performing close to your XG and making sure that more often than not you are putting away those chances that you're expected to across the course of a season. I suppose that when we're just going back to The Arsenal example, that's essentially what they need really. They've got fantastic defense, really strong midfield. They can get the ball into the final third with such creativity. Yes, injuries at the moment are stopping their typical right sided triangles and things like that, but what they need is someone who is. If we're looking for an elite striker to sort of reverse engineer your question, it's someone who can consistently put the ball in the back of the net, right at that sharp end and spearhead the attack. And that's currently maybe what they don't quite have. They're obviously coming up a little bit short and they're a little bit blunt, but the player that you want is someone who you would expect to score the fairly straightforward chances. And again, Isak is that sort of player at the moment and doing it across the course of multiple seasons, not just multiple weeks. And the likes of Lewandowski, Akane A. Haaland are those who definitely put themselves in the world class category. Not because they, they can just pull out those incredible moments, but they do it so, so consistently.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah. Phil, do you hark back to the days of the odd four, four, two, couple of strikers up front? Because we started this chat talking about Duran and you know, Unai Emery prefers a lone striker up there. I mean, the days of Andy Cole, Dwight, you're sharing the goals are few these days in the Premier League.

[David Ornstein]

Yeah, but if I do harp back to it or if I do miss it, it's only for nostalgic reasons, you know. Yeah, I'm a Hearts fan and I miss the old shed at Tyne Castle, but only, only because of what it, you know, reminds me of. I'm not in any way wedded to one system and I don't think, I don't think two strikers up front automatically makes a team more functional or more dangerous. And I don't think 4, 4, 2 made football better per se. You still do get systems in which you've almost got to two center forwards or one plane in behind the other. I mean, one of the big problems for Christopher Nkunku at Chelsea is that from what I hear him say, he'd like to be a bit of a secondary striker in behind the nine, but he's not knocking Cole Palmer out of that team. So he's not getting a game and he's. And it looks like he's, he's gonna have to leave. But 442, I don't know, it's a bit like saying music was better back in the day. Life, life moves on. Doesn't it.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, it's true in it. Yeah, absolutely. Spot on. All right, Mark, let's go back to City once more really in terms of. We talked about the 4, 4, 2, but also actually, I guess you could say certain styles that City play have Edison basically just playing Route 1. Right. Is there still room for that? Straight from the goalie to the top to the center forward, knock it in, Route 1, that's it, job done.

[Mark Carey]

Definitely. Absolutely. I think that, you know, we can sometimes be a bit snobby about that, but then whenever Pep Guardiola do it or whenever City do it, it suddenly becomes fash, fashionable again. Whereas if Sean. Well, not now Sean Dyche's Everton, but previously this season does it, then then it's less fashionable. So I think if you to look at the numbers across goalkeepers maybe playing those sorts of long passes, then it's generally this season lower in terms of the rate of long balls compared to five year average in the Premier League. So this season 46% of goalkeepers, their passes are played long at the season level and the average in recent years is about 55%. So it speaks to the idea that more often than not, or in general, goalkeepers are looking to play that, that short pass if they can, but then if the opportunity isn't there, then they'll play long. And I think that it speaks to the intelligence of the goalkeeper, but also the manager to give these players the freedom to go long when they need to. I think if you flip it on its head, the dogmatism that maybe Russell Martin asked his goalkeeper to play with at Southampton before he obviously parted company was that whatever the situation, we keep the ball on the floor and we sort of build up from the back. Sometimes they needed to try and just maybe find someone in wide areas or maybe play it long. Doesn't mean that you're then going against all of your principles. And obviously that was key to his downfall. So many areas that led to goals when teams pressed really high and then won the ball back. So when you know that the opposition is getting really tight to you, the goalkeeper has the. Well, the intelligent goalkeepers have the presence of mind to be able to bypass that press, as we saw against Chelsea, and play a. What would you call it, a direct ball, a long ball or a long. Long pass rather than long ball.

[Ayo Akinwale]

That's what they like. It just adds a bit more to.

[David Ornstein]

Hoof is the word.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, agriculturally a hoof. But then obviously then benefit from it because they scored from it. So it's still making sure that you are tactically being really intelligent because what he did there wasn't just aimlessly hoof it, it was bypassing the press. Chelsea really tried to get high and City benefited from it. So I think again, it speaks to the generalist at a broader level from the team perspective that mixing up your style, your approach, your tactical setup will then create a bit more indecision for the opposition and allow you to play in the way that you want to play. But if you play like that every time, play short every time, I should say, then the opposition are going to grow wise to it and often the team will come unstuck. You're listening to the Athletic FC podcast with IO Akinwaleere.

[Ayo Akinwale]

I use the New York Times Games app every single day.

[Mark Carey]

I love playing connections with connections.

[Phil Hay]

I need to twist my brain to.

[Ayo Akinwale]

See the different categories. I think I know this connection. Look, Bath is a city in England, Sandwich is a city in England, Reading is a city in England, and I'm gonna guess Derby is a city in England. I started Wordle 194 days ago and I haven't missed a day. The New York Times Games app has all the games right there.

[David Ornstein]

I absolutely love spelling bee.

[Ayo Akinwale]

I always have to get genius. I've seen you yell at it and.

[Mark Carey]

Say, that should be a word.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Totally should be a word. Sudogu is kind of my version of lifting heavy weights at the gym.

[Mark Carey]

At this point, I'm probably more consistent with doing the crossword than brushing my teeth.

[Ayo Akinwale]

When I can finish a hard puzzle without pins, I feel like the smartest person in the world. When I have to look up a clue to help me, I'm learning something new. It gives me joy every single day.

[Mark Carey]

Start playing in the New York Times Games app.

[Ayo Akinwale]

You can Download [e-mail] GamesApp We've spoken a lot about the top strikers in the Premier League, but what about across Europe lays it off? Oh, Patrik Schick is on fire today.

[Mark Carey]

Hello, this is Sevzaflor, and I'm the German football correspondent with the Athletic starting in the most unoriginal, obvious place, Bayern Munich's Harry Kane. Patrick Schick has had a renaissance at Leverkusen. Omar Mahmouch, he's just moved to Manchester City, of course. Really more of a wide forward. We'll see what happens to him at City, but yeah, a wonderful season, clearly. Mahmouch's teammate, Higa Ekitike is worth a mention, too.

[Ayo Akinwale]

He's more of a kind of a.

[Mark Carey]

Stylish, elegant Player scores goals, but also he's incredibly watchable. He's had a wonderful season. Into the area goes, there's a header.

[Ayo Akinwale]

And he has his hat trick.

[Mark Carey]

Garcia.

[David Ornstein]

Hey, I'm Paul Valloos, the Athletics Barca correspondent.

[Ayo Akinwale]

If we look at the top goalscorer list, there is a case to make that the best striker in La Liga this season has been Robert Lewandowski. But when you analyze it deeper, you have to highlight as well Raphinha. He has scored 12 goals this season.

[David Ornstein]

Starting off the wing but roaming into.

[Ayo Akinwale]

More central positions when crashing into the box. We surely have to go as well to Kylian Mbappe. Now the Frenchman is finding his mojo.

[David Ornstein]

And is already second in the top.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Goal scorer ranking with 15 goals. Then if we want to drop some other interesting names, we could go for Kique Garcia, former middle draw player, now at Alabes. Finally, Dodilu Cavacchio has kept Sevilla out of more dangerous placers in the table with nine goals.

[Mark Carey]

Playing off the right hand side, this is James Horncastle. I cover Sedia and Italy for the Athletic when it comes to nines. Einselier at the moment, I mean, there are no shortage of very good ones. It's easy to start with the top scorer, Capo Cannoniere elect in Matteo Retegui of Atalanta, he scored 16 goals in 22 games. That is what, one goal every 72 minutes. But it's how he's scoring those goals which is really impressive. He's got six with his right foot, five with his left foot and five with his head. Some have been spectacular. Rotgi, who is an Italy international but was born raised in Argentina, Roberto Mancini deserves a lot of credit for calling him up when he was still playing in Argentina when he'd yet to learn Italian. Because boy, Mancini can sure pick a striker.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Some really interesting names there. Phil from Seb Pol and also James as well. Now a striker that's really piqued your interest at the moment, especially what he's doing at Barcelona right now. Currently captain of the team is Rafinha and obviously you'd have seen him at your time at Leeds. What are you making of his progress right now?

[David Ornstein]

Oh, he's. He's in Ballon d'or mode at the moment. I mean, the longer this season goes on, the more I think he's been the best player in the world in. In this period. Which isn't to say he is the best player when it comes to technical ability. I mean, he's not far off, but somebody like Yamau will probably go Further, I think, than. Than Raphinha. But Raphinha is absolutely on it and it is quite odd to think that I watched him in a relegation battle in the Premier League because he started to look like the sort of player who should. Should never have been anywhere near there. The only thing I would say with Raphinha is that at the end of this podcast we're going to try and put together the perfect nine using body parts from various players. And I was sorely tempted to stick Rafinha's left foot in there until I decided that he's. He's actually a wide forward really, isn't he? In the same way that Salah is. So I think sneaking him into the number nine discussion is cheating somewhat. Nonetheless, it's quite interesting that Barcelona's top players, you know, the most expensive players, if they were to sell everybody among them is not the number nine. They've got Ferran Torres at nine, but the two who really driving them this season, certainly in an attacking sense. Yamal on the right, Raphinha on the left. Both fantastic, but neither I think would play up front on the own.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, on that point on Rafinha, Mark, it got me thinking actually in terms of the. The top scorers across Europe, I can imagine they're not all the typical number nines. I can imagine the goals are varied, very similar as we're seeing in the. In the Premier League.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, I think so, yeah. I think that you have your usual candidates up there. We've spoken about a lot of them already. You've got Erling Haaland. Even despite City, Manchester City struggles this season, he's still on 18 goals which across the top five European leagues, the. The second highest. So you've got your what we'll maybe call your out and out number nines or your players who will spearhead the attack. And obviously we mentioned Kane before that. 17 goals for him. We don't need to really spend too much time on Harry Kane. We know how good he is in terms of just how two footed he is and the ability to score all sorts of different types of goals. You'd say the same for Robert Lewandowski. Established number nine, 17 goals this season. We've spoken at length about Alexander Isak. He's probably in that category. I'd say Matteo Tegui's sort of up there as well. You know, James mentioned him. He's. He scored 16 goals this season, which is the sixth highest of yet any player in top five European leagues. So there's probably that category as well. And Then you'll have what we've maybe deeming to be the quote unquote forwards more so than the the strikers. So you have Mo Salah, obviously a goal machine, but largely from the right wing. We know his quality already, 19 goals, which is more than any player across top five European leagues. Maybe the mirror image of that is Kylian Mbappe, but we know that he can play down the middle as well. Of course he's maybe not as quite as much success but likes to drift into those left sided channels and then come inside as well. Omar Mahmouch, a player that can play anywhere across the front line really. He can play behind the striker of course, either side. He's earned his move to Manchester City, scored 15 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and rightly so is a player that has been spoken about a lot and as I say earned that move to Manchester City. Brandon Bermo has been brilliant this season. You know, 14 goals. He's similar to Salah and playing a little bit more off the right channel and coming inside. And then I almost couldn't categorize Cole Palmer quite the same as those other two. So maybe put it into three strikers, general forwards. And then I still think of. And maybe I'm wrong in thinking this Cole Palmer is still an attacking midfielder because he's able to still do those things from deep. But you know, as I say, probably the least forward like on the list but 14 goals this season and yeah it just drew drifts into those pockets beautifully and just like runs, runs into space and he's such a, I don't want to say cold finisher but that was probably just because it's in the front.

[Ayo Akinwale]

You can do the celebration as well.

[Mark Carey]

But no, but he is so calm, shall we say in front of goal. He loves a penalty as well. So he was one that couldn't quite maybe categorize in the same. But in terms of the broad Venn diagram, you have got an attacking midfielder out there on his own, but then somewhere between more general forwards and those out and out strikers.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, Phil, how do you, you know, if you haven't got the money for Haaland, if you haven't got the money for Cole Palmer. Mo Salah, you know, I'm just thinking teams like Bournemouth, Brentford as we spoke about in terms of Mbuemo, like is it just that data led approach? It has to be because you know, it's like plucking a needle of a haystack. But when you do buy them, you're not even sure if they're actually going to be able to step up to the next level.

[David Ornstein]

Oh, it totally comes down to recruitment and that's what Brentford and Brighton have been extremely good at for a long time. And that's why they get referenced in almost any podcast we do about Premier League recruitment, because they, they seem to nail it so often. They're very good at knowing within their budget which players they can take on and mold into the type of. Talking about center forwards, into the type of center forward that they absolutely need in their team. I think it, you know, Brentford obviously teed up Ollie Watkins in a great way when they were in the championship and Aston Vil have taken him on at what now looks like a fairly conservative cost. I think it was about 30 million pounds when they signed him, which seemed like a big fee back in the day, but looks like incredibly good value now and again. He's trained on, he's developed, he's improved and that's kind of, kind of what you have to do, I think, ideally. And this is the reason why clubs have big, you know, vast teams in the data departments, you get a sample set which gives you ample confidence. Mark mentioned Marmusch there, who's come to Citi from Eintracht in Germany. And part me almost wondered whether City were forced into that a little bit sooner than they might have liked to have done it. Because again, Mark might correct me here, but his sample size in terms of outstanding seasons doesn't seem to be massive. And I suppose you could have a debate about, even though he's clearly really talented player, very, very good footballer, whether, you know, that sort of form is going to be sustainable long term. But you absolutely have to get it right in the Premier League because center forwards who, who aren't up to it won't get very far in it. I mean, I, I thought Nicholas Phil Krug at West Ham could be a lot of. But it's. But it seems, it seems to have broken him already.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, he's been injured a lot. Yeah, you're right. Absolutely spot on. Mark, we've talked about some big names so far and you are Mr. Data. What's your Data telling you about perhaps who we should be looking out for across Europe? Surely there's someone in there that we haven't even mentioned yet.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah, maybe a couple. Yeah. I mean, we have mentioned Liam Delap as well and that's maybe not. Oh, yeah, maybe not unbelievable numbers, but I think most Premier League watchers would. Would see that he is playing at a really good level and almost has that Scalability, you can see that he's got the physical profile and the attributes to be able to play at a higher level. So I'd probably put him in the mix more just from his, from, you know, the video that I've seen of him rather than necessarily his data. I think any American listeners will probably be screaming saying, Ricardo Pepe is having a fantastic season at PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie. At the moment. He's only 22 years of age, US international. He scored 11 goals this season. He's actually not started that much. He's only started five games in the league, but just keeps on scoring. His rate of goal scoring is unbelievable. Almost in the Duran mold where because he's not starting but then he's scoring, he's kind of knocking on the door to start. But then certain players maybe like that are. You don't have that sample size or that information to see whether they can do it at that level from the start. Building off what Phil said about Mahmouche, it's worth speaking about Hugo Ekitike as well. At Eintracht Frankfurt there was dovetailing beautifully up until Mahmouch has left. He's only 22 years of age and scored 11 goals this season. He's long been spoken about as an up and coming, you know, center forward. He is finding some form this season after a difficult spell at Paris Saint Germain. He sort of made that move to an elite level and maybe just didn't quite find his feet as much. Dropped down ever so slightly, but it's clearly shown some, some really strong attributes. Another player everyone's speaking about is Benjamin Sesko, 21 years of age at RB Leipzig. Maybe not the most prolific goalscorer, but he's got that height, speed and profile of a modern day centre forward. And the final one, which has been spoken about a lot over the summer and with the potential move to Chelsea is Porto's Samu Omarodian. He's changed his surname as well, actually to Agahawa, I think at the start of this season. So I think he doesn't use that surname anymore. But only 20 years of age, scored 13 goals in the Portuguese Primera Liga this season. Only Victor Jacques has more. He's basically scored.

[David Ornstein]

Finally. Finally. I was going to say we are slightly overlooking him, aren't we?

[Mark Carey]

I know, yeah, I know he's probably due a move in the summer as well, but yeah, Samu's goal ratio is one goal per game at the moment. He's a really strong, powerful central presence Able to score all different types of goals. A bit of a poacher as well. And it looks like his goal scoring ability is potentially scalable as well and he's showing it in Portugal. So quite a few players there I suppose that we maybe didn't mention but maybe that kind of defies the point that there's not too many out there. I suppose if you look a little bit harder, you dig a little bit deeper. There are some really interesting profiles but to the point we're making because these players are so young, their sample size maybe isn't huge to be able to strongly conclude that they are going to be able to make it at the elite level. But. But yeah, some interesting names in there.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Okay, well before I let you both go, Phil mentioned it earlier. We gotta play a little game. Basically we want to find out what makes the perfect number nine and basically you have to pick a body part from currently playing number nine. So no Mark Feducas in there, no Andy Cole's in there, no Dwight York's in there. So we'll start with you Mark. Let's start with Football Break. If there's a striker right now with a great football brain, who is it that you're going to put on our list?

[Mark Carey]

Well, I don't know if I have to show my workings here but I'm going to go with Harry Kane because we know his ability to not only score a lot of goals but his ability to drop in and be so intelligent, to drift wide at times and know where to play the pass and be that kind of all round centre forward and be one of the most clinical finishers in Europe and got that ability to score goals at the same level with his left foot, right foot and header. I think the intelligence of Harry Kane is definitely my pick. Alright, left foot, left foot for me is maybe slightly controversial. I'm going to go with John Durham for reasons that will come on. You'll see why later. Why I've gone for him. I tried not to go too obvious but yeah, current with the pod that we're obviously talking about, I think some of his goals, the goal against Everton and so how emphatic he is with his first time finishing as well. You can tell that his left foot is so powerful and accurate. How sweet he can strike the ball. Maybe not the most popular opinion but I'm going John Duran.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, what about right foot, right foot?

[Mark Carey]

I'm going Robert Lewandowski, he's shown across many, many years just how deadly he is in front of goal and I Think it's just how emphatically he does score often into the corners. I think so. Aesthetically pleasing, hopefully not controversial one. Robert Lewandowski.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, Speed, speed.

[Mark Carey]

I've gone for the data obviously here because it's objective and it's not even.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Cheating, man, you're cheating. This is supposed to be instinctive.

[David Ornstein]

I didn't have these numbers. Come on.

[Mark Carey]

So this is publicly available on the Bundesliga website. I've gone for Lois Appenda and he's not the fastest, but from a striker perspective, he's right up there, third fastest. 36.64 kilometers per hour is the top speed that he registered this season. So I've gone for Lois Appenda there, which is quite a fun one.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right. Okay. What about strength?

[Mark Carey]

Well, going back to Victor Jokarez, I've gone for him here. He bullies defenders. Maybe it speaks to the strength of the Portuguese League ever so slightly, but his pace and his power, ability to run into the channels and burn past so many defensive lines with his runs, definitely really strong play. And I've been on this podcast before when we were speaking with AD Vivas, weren't we? And I think he was saying how he previously wasn't the sort of striker who liked the contact and back into players, which is why he'd run into the channels. But I think he has developed that and added that to his game as well. So, yeah, a bully of a striker in a good way. Victor Jacares.

[Ayo Akinwale]

And finally, heading ability, old school.

[Mark Carey]

So this is where I've gone for Erling Haaland rather than the left foot of Erling Haaland. And I obviously got to have him in somewhere and I think that his ability to dominate centre backs in the area is. Is incredible. The way that he peels off into, onto the back post does it so, so well. And I have lent on the numbers here a little bit that no Premier League player has scored more headed goals than his 14 since he arrived in the Premier League a few seasons ago. So I'll give a shout out for maybe Ollie Watkins and Chris Wood, but yeah, I'm going to go for Harland.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Oh, man, you had all the data as well. Okay, I respect that. So you've gone mentality, Harry Kane, left foot Duran, right foot Lewandowski, speed, upender strength, Gjokares and heading ability, Haaland. What a striker. Phil, you haven't got the data. This is just the love of football, son. What you got for us in terms of football? Brain mentality? Which player are you going for?

[David Ornstein]

Should I point out that we have deliberately excluded Messi and Ronaldo from this, who obviously aren't playing in Europe's top five leagues anyway. But you can. You can imagine the onslaught of.

[Ayo Akinwale]

That's just a comment.

[David Ornstein]

Yeah, no, it definitely is. Football brain I went for. He's Jack, who I think has very much all the cleverness that Mark was talking about with Harry Kane, the ability to. To do so many different things in. In that. That one rule, whether he will go on to be as good as Harry Kane is going to be a big challenge for him. But I think what you see in him now tells you that there's a massively intelligent footballer there. All right, what about right foot Gurkharesh, who has a hell of a right foot on him?

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, left foot.

[David Ornstein]

But you're not going to give me Rafinho on this one, are you? Because he's.

[Ayo Akinwale]

I can.

[David Ornstein]

Because he's not. He's not a n. I went for Holland because, like Mark, I wanted to get him in the team somewhere. Although I. I was tempted on first glance over the weekend to go for Magnus Auchi at Monaco. Did. Did you see his overhead kick on Saturday? More whip than Anui. Liver shot.

[Mark Carey]

Yeah. So good.

[David Ornstein]

Beautiful.

[Ayo Akinwale]

What a way.

[David Ornstein]

What a way to leave Haaland. Left foot for me.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, what about speed, Matt? Mark had the data on a pender, but what from what you'll see, I mean, I'm surprised Kylian Mbappe hasn't even made this list.

[David Ornstein]

Yeah, I've gone Mbappe, Mbappe. Mbappe does a pen to buy a nose. Definitely.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, strength.

[David Ornstein]

I went for Osimhen, actually. Am I right in saying he's on loan from Napoli at the moment? Top five. Five leagues. But yeah, he's a. He's a proper. Proper specimen. Is awesome. Quality footballer.

[Ayo Akinwale]

And finally, heading ability. There's quite a few players already on your list that can do heading, but what do you reckon?

[David Ornstein]

Yeah, I felt the best of them was Lewandowski. It'd be him for me.

[Ayo Akinwale]

All right, perfect. So, Isak, football brain, Haaland. Left foot, right foot, Gyokares. Speed, Mbappe strength. Osimhen and heading ability. Lewandowski. Gentlemen, I really appreciate your time. What a complete striker you have created there. I'm surprised none of you said Iowa Kimolere, but that's a different conversation. Thank you so much for joining us, Mark and Phil.

[Mark Carey]

This is the Athletic FC podcast with I.O. acemolara.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Okay, time to hear from our football correspondent, David Ornstein, who's been very busy working on the Athletic transfer deal sheet. He has the latest on Jon Duran's situation at Aston Villa.

[Phil Hay]

Well, the Aston Villa striker situation is fascinating and it's something we need to keep a close eye on as the January transfer window draws towards a conclusion. Most top clubs would love to have even one elite number nine. Many of them are in the market for such a position. Villa are blessed with two in the form of Ollie Watkins and John Duram. They've even signed Donya Marlon from Borussia Dortmund to add to their attack. But that comes with complications of its own because Unai Emery, the Villa manager, tends to favour a lone frontman and both Watkins and Duram want and expect to be the regular starter. So there's a growing sense that something might have to give, that it's unsustainable. What could that be? Well, Duran has generated significant interest for quite some time from last summer to more recently. I revealed on the Athletic just last week that West Ham had submitted a proposal where worth 57 million pounds including add ons that was rejected by Villa because they didn't intend to sell Durand this month. But you never know in this industry and I understand that if they were to receive a proposal in the region of £80 million, then it would at least be considered and could very possibly lead to a late move. But it's not guaranteed because Duran is just 21 years old. He's got huge potential. If, if they do keep hold of him, there's every chance that he could go for even more in the future. Meanwhile, Watkins is older, he's 29 and you could say this is the last opportunity for Villa to really cash in on him. However, he's extremely popular. Loved by Emery, he appears to be the first choice and I don't think Emery would want to see him go. So a big dilemma for Villa, big decisions to be made and it'll be really interesting to see how it pans out in the coming days.

[Ayo Akinwale]

Yeah, I really appreciate that, David. You can hear more from David and an array of top football people on the inner workings of the transfer window this Sunday. Keep an ear out for a special episode dropping on this feed. That's the end of the podcast. Thank you so much for joining us all our guests, but also do not forget to head over to the Athletic right now to keep an eye out out for the transfer deal sheet. Not long left before the transfer window closes. We'll be back tomorrow for more the Athletic FC Podcast Network. Hello, I'm Ian McIntosh and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing what is the Daily Football Briefing? It's a special 10 minute daily show designed to bring you up to speed with the most important, important stories from across the football world. Except on Monday mornings when it's 15 minutes and we try to cram in the results, standings and stories from the top 10 leagues on the planet. Or at least the top 10 leagues that I run on a football manager save. Follow this show today and you'll never miss another big story again. Whether it's news that the Athletic has just broken David Ornstein, what happened? News from outside the Premier League that other podcasts might ignore, that is a difficult one to explain, so let's go bit by bit. Or it's Champions League week and you just need someone to put it all into context. It's made for a very useful away point in a difficult game in a difficult week. Listen to the Daily football briefing in 2025. It's out every weekday. Wherever you get your podcast.