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- [00:00]
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- [00:36]
Pablo Torre
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- [01:33]
Sponsor Voice
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- [02:22]
Michael Bailey
Hello and welcome to the Athletic FC Tactics Podcast. I'm Michael Bailey. This week we're discussing the minutiae of an enthralling round of Champions League Round of 16 ties from Premier League struggles and Guardiola's European record to how good Bayern and PSG really are and plenty More besides for this one, we have Michael Cox.
- [02:43]
Michael Cox
Hello, Michael.
- [02:44]
Michael Bailey
Duncan. Alexander.
- [02:46]
Duncan Alexander
Hello, Michael.
- [02:47]
Michael Bailey
And Mark Carey.
- [02:48]
Mark Carey
Hi, Michael.
- [02:49]
Michael Bailey
Right, let's run you through the quarter finalists after this week's action. They are Arsenal, Paris Saint Germain, Sporting and Real Madrid. And they're joined by Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Barcelona. Now, I first wanted to talk about the sheer number of goals in this round, Michael. 68 of them, up from 63 in the same round last year. Any feeling that managers are cutting loose maybe a little bit, or is it a little bit more haphazard than that?
- [03:19]
Michael Cox
I thought it was a bit circumstantial. I think a few of the goals in the first leg were a little bit out of nothing and teams built up quite substantial leads and that meant the opposition really had to take the initiative, often on home soil, where they could felt like they could kind of go for a little bit more. And that left the back door open. And he had lots of goals, but not complaining. I thought it was a really entertaining round. I think on this podcast we've been slightly negative about the league phase. I must say, I don't particularly enjoy it. I just feels like there's so many matches and none of them mean that much. Whereas this time around I was just desperately trying to keep across everything and kind of wish I could have watched even more live matches because at times there was two going on and they were really entertaining. So I don't think it's an indication of a big shift. And I think sometimes when there's lots of goals, we have to remember that if it's a 102 or an 8 2, that just means one team's better than the other. Doesn't necessarily mean that things are really open and attacking. But overall I think it was a really entertaining couple of weeks of Chambers League football.
- [04:20]
Mark Carey
Yeah. Is it more likely that you'd get those sorts of aggregate scorelines in the last 16? Less so in the quarter final, semi finals, because you've got the even more elite sides, therefore there's maybe a little bit more cageiness because there's still some at this stage of the competition. Bodoglympt being an example. With the greatest respect to them, they've done very well. There's still quite a bit of a gap between certain teams at times, whereas obviously as you progress through the tournament, it is the best of the best.
- [04:43]
Michael Cox
Yeah. I think in general, when we talk about the goals per game rate, we always take it as a measure of our team is being attacking, but to a certain extent it's just a measure of are some teams way better than the others. I mean, if you have a really tight league, you don't tend to get many goals because the games are really cagey. And then a 5 nil or a 6 nil will boost the goals per game rate. But is that good in itself? I don't know. In general, I'd probably prefer fewer goals and closer games.
- [05:09]
Duncan Alexander
I think it's quite telling that in the sort of 90s and 2000s, the Champions League goals per game rate was generally below domestic leagues, whereas the last few years it's been well over three goals per game, which obviously we've had once in the Premier League. But it does tend to just. Yeah, I think it does sort of speak to a growing inequality, I mean, just on the English teams. And this is massively skewed by the fact there were six of them through to the round of 16, but 30 goals conceded in that round. The next highest was the round round of 16 in 2016. 17, which was 18. Obviously fewer teams, but it was quite, I think, to Michael's point, it was just a bit of a. A mad series of events, particularly in the first round of games, that just led to. Yeah, led to it. I mean, I think. I don't think we can extrapolate much about the. The quality of either competition really from what happened.
- [05:56]
Mark Carey
Not necessarily the quality, but is there anything in the fact that because you said in recent seasons it has kind of gone up and up and up. Is there anything in the fact that there's not the away goals rule anymore? We're talking about caginess that sometimes teams would be a bit more willing to protect an aggregate scoreline where they know that they're going through based on away goals rather than home and away. You can go for it in the same way and try and build a lead and try and get ahead knowing that actually there's. There's no detriment to what you're doing. Do you think that maybe that has kind of contributed to more goals in recent years?
- [06:29]
Michael Cox
I haven't looked at the numbers instinctively. I'd say probably not. I actually think this shift towards slightly more open football came before the change of rule. I always thought the away goals rule was a zero sum game almost. I mean, you were more incentivized to attack away from home and less so at home. I think it probably balances out over the two legs. I mean, I think there are some implications of not having the away goals rule. Particularly, you're more likely to have extra time, which we actually only had in. In one game or in one tie. This one, which was the Bodo glimp one. Yeah. I'm not sure it's changed, to be honest. I think the away goals rule, I quite liked it. Not because of its original purpose, but just because I think it. It created some more drama, if that makes sense.
- [07:12]
Duncan Alexander
I think it made Champions League or all European football feel different. Like it. It gave it a sort of something you wouldn't see in the Carabao cup, for instance. Yeah. And I think we have. We're seeing one legacy from it in the sense that obviously Arsenal and Bayern get home advantage in the second leg all the way through to the final or through to the semi finals if they get there. And that, to Michael's point, you know, playing home second was a bit more of an advantage when the away goals existed. But yeah, I mean, I think some clubs would prefer to play their home leg first and build up a lead, as we saw in this round.
- [07:47]
Michael Cox
And just to kind of go back to a point we made at the start. There was actually only one game, that game I mentioned that went to extra time. That was the only one that was really close. I mean, I think there was two other games where the margin of victory was two goals over the two legs. But everything else was like a foregone conclusion really, by half time of the second match. So despite there being lots of goals, actually there wasn't that much drama in the latter stages of these games. And in general, drama rather than goals, although you can't completely separate the two. But I'm more up for drama, lots of drama than lots of goals.
- [08:20]
Michael Bailey
You mentioned the Premier League sides, Duncan. One of the themes of the round has been the struggles of the Premier League teams. Four of the six in the round of 16 have been booted. That's Manchester City, Tottenham Newcastle and Chelsea. And it's a bit of a juxtaposition with what people were saying about the strength of the English sides when five of the six qualified in the top eight for the league phase. Right, Michael?
- [08:44]
Michael Cox
Yeah, to a certain extent. I mean, I think there's various factors here. One is a league, one is a knockout. We know that knockout competitions can be a bit noisy, can throw up strange results. I think the English teams did get quite a tough draw. I think playing against Real Madrid, Barcelona, psg, these were difficult draws. And maybe there is a bit of fatigue because the Premier League is so intense. But the main reason is the English teams are not very good. The top English sides are not that good. They might be Strong in terms of financial power and bring in lots of good players. But we, we know all season they haven't been playing good football, really. They just haven't looked like top teams. And that, I think goes for Arsenal and Manchester City, who are at the top of the Premier League, and Liverpool, who are the ones who are still left in European competition. And the whole thing of the Premier League and it's probably been a bit overdone over the years, but the whole thing with the Premier League is that it prides itself on, oh, everyone can beat everyone. You know, the teams at the bottom of the league are strong. I think this season we have seen that. We've seen the fact that wolves, who are bottom of the league, when they played Arsenal, who are top of the league, one game, they, they drew in one game. Arsenal won by a very fine margin. That's the strength of the Premier League. This season. The strength of the Premier League is not the top teams. And actually I think we've seen how limited they are, particularly in attack. The fact that they were so open defensively, I must say, has caught me a little bit by surprise. But in general, they're just not great teams. And I think the results, we've seen a reflection of that. And personally speaking, I think sometimes, particularly people who maybe listen to this pod or read our stuff from overseas think, oh, we're all desperate for English teams to do well. I don't like watching any of these teams, really, honestly. I don't want them to be getting into the semi finals of the Champions League. I want to see good football. And the good football is coming from Barcelona and Bayern Munich and PSG and Real Madrid. To a certain extent, the English teams, honestly, the fact that we're probably not going to have any all English ties in the Champions League is fantastic because really we don't need to be seeing any more of them.
- [10:39]
Duncan Alexander
Yeah, that's a good point. It looked like there were going to be quite a lot. And you're right. None other less it's Arsenal Liverpool in the final, which seems a stretch. I think you can, to Michael's point, I think if you look at the equality in the Premier league in the 90s when it was the most equal, I mean 96, 97 is the smallest gap between first and bottom. English team struggled in Europe. You know, they're obviously still learning to readapt after the, after the ban. But they, they struggled. If you go sort of 10 years later to the big four era, when they really were, it was the most kind of you know, that was the biggest difference in quality I think we've ever seen. That's when I think it's probably England's strongest period in the Champions League in the modern era. So. And we're kind of back to a 90s sort of scenario really where it's a very competitive Premier League. I think it's still, I'm still enjoying the Premier League season. But yeah, we're seeing that particularly teams like Chelsea, Newcastle, spurs just, just weren't prepared for what they're about to face.
- [11:37]
Mark Carey
No, I do agree with that and I do think there is still credence the idea that the, the intensity of the league means that there's a drop off in physicality as the season goes on for those English teams. And you could even talk about England national team plays in the upcoming summer tournament. But you contrast that with the fact that there are fewer games overall for other European teams in terms of just extra cup competitions. It does play into it. It's not the sole factor, but it's one of, I think the main factors. And of course PSG against Chelsea, they had their game, I think it was against Nantes at the weekend postponed so they could concentrate on the Champions League. I think that was the same last season, wasn't it, before the Aston Villa game? I think so. It's an advantage or it helps. It's not that. Again, not the sole factor, but it helps. And I think I've just seen recently that today I believe PSG aren't having their game in between the two quarter final legs of Liverpool postponed as well. So a slight leveler if you like. But there is just factors that go into the wider picture.
- [12:35]
Duncan Alexander
I think the other thing to point out is that the Premier League's kind of gamified the whole of this new format of the Champions League in the sense that they had five of the top eight and Newcastle just below the top eight. They won so many games there that they're pretty much guaranteed to get five spots again next season. There's a very good chance or a reasonable chance I'd say that Aston Villa win the Europa League and at UNAI Emery, but finish outside the top five. So it's very. It's pretty likely that we have six teams back in it again and we could be seeing the same issues this time next year.
- [13:07]
Michael Bailey
I did just want to reflect on Manchester City. They lost 51 on aggregate to Real Madrid. Pep Guardiola has therefore lost both legs of a Champions League knockout stage tie for the fourth time. Three of them have come Against Real
- [13:22]
Michael Cox
Madrid, yeah, it was an unusual one where, I mean, first 10, 15 minutes in the Bernabeu, Manchester City were actually on top and they focused really on attacking Trent Alexander Arnold with Jeremy Doku, which is a ploy that Guardiola's used before, obviously, in those Manchester City, Liverpool games with, often with Leroy San, I remember, used to have a really good go at Alexander Arnold, and Real Madrid did look to be struggling with that. And the funny thing is that the way that they fixed it in the first leg was they put Valverde almost as an extra right back, allowed Alexander Arnold to tuck inside as. As cover. And you think Valverde is playing a really good defensive role there and he's helping to stop Docu won a couple of tackles. The weird thing was that then Valverde still managed to score hat trick because he's got such speed and such energy that he can play as a bonus right back and actually pop up as almost a number nine for much of the first half. And it was a bit of a. Bit of a freak thing, really, that I think City lost the game and almost the tie before halftime in the Bernabeu because they'd started really well. They started the second game very well also. And it was that incident, a penalty and a red card obviously just killed the tie. But I do think, I mean, I. I find Guardiola's approach this season slightly strange. They seem desperate to go. I mean, maybe I'm contradicting myself because I'm talking about Doku, but they seem desperate to go through the middle, you know, with Semenya in that role. Simegio is a really good player, I think I actually said on this podcast when we were talking about redeploying players, I said, I. I'd love to see Sim as a number nine at Bournemouth. I didn't expect him to see as a number 10 at Manchester City. I find that quite weird. And I think just defensively they look quite prone to quick counterattacks. They're playing players who I don't think are natural defenders, really. And I think that it's almost gone back to what Guardiola used to do where he's, you know, he's redeployed Nunes as a right back. O'Reilly, okay, has been playing midfield, but he's often been playing left back this season. Kusanov, I think, is a useful player, but I think at the moment for his recovery pace rather than his positioning, his classic defensive attributes. And at times the midfield looks quite open as well. I mean, Rodri, I don't think he's got back to the level we saw before his injury. So there's a lot of, there's a lot of issues with that team and I think to be honest, we see that in the Premier League they've never looked convincing in the Premier League. They've gone on a couple of good runs against weaker teams, I would say, but I just haven't really thought at any stage they look like a side who can win the, the European Cup. So you know, it's I think the fourth time in five seasons they've gone out to Real Madrid and this one probably the actually last season was quite one sided as well. But this one, yeah, they probably lost it before halftime in the first game.
- [15:56]
Mark Carey
It's interesting as well. The idea I think behind Manchester City playing a bit more narrow and having bodies in sort of more central areas is from an attacking perspective to be able to move the ball around at speed and be able to sort of penetrate through central areas. But if you do lose the ball, it's having those bodies around to be able to sort of stop the counter press. But to Michael's point, I think they've been just as vulnerable as last season times when they've, they've had such a fall off a cliff in terms of their form in an out of possession perspective and they, they're playing with especially true at the start of the season they were playing with an even more aggressive line, a high line that was getting exposed so much. I think it was the arrival of Pep Linders who really sort of liked to, to make sure that they had their sort of triggers worked out with pushing the high line and they got undone multiple times I think was a really good example against Wolves away that they, they conceded a goal from. But they've done that a little bit less so now. But yeah, what was intended and is intended to be sort of an advantage from an attacking perspective has kind of been there undoing from a defensive perspective.
- [16:53]
Duncan Alexander
I also think and you can't blame either player for City's exit, but signing two players in the January transfer window from sort of lower Premier League teams. Mark Gay from Palace and Semenya from Bournemouth, very both very good players. I think both have improved City or helped them at certain points already. But I just saw them both at the Bernabeu and they both, they weren't over awed so much but it just felt, it just felt like a not a very Manchester City Pep Guardiola sort of thing. And to Michael's point that, that you know, Semenya deployed in a position I don't think anyone's really seen him in before in that game. For much of the game, it just felt like a retrograde step from them. It felt like they were sort of a plucky team trying to sort of get past Real Madrid rather than a team that, you know, in. Within the last five or six years, I've seen City dominate Real Madrid so much. City have barely got out of their own half, and it just feels like they've taken a lot of steps back from. From where they were then.
- [17:48]
Michael Bailey
Yeah. That's such an interesting change in dynamic. Duncan and Michael, we should probably reflect on the fact that you. You've written about Pep Guardiola's difficult relationship with the Champions League. He has won it three times in his managerial career, but only once in the last 10 years. I guess you could take it either way, but is that. Is that a little dent in his legacy?
- [18:10]
Duncan Alexander
Yeah.
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Michael Cox
I mean, 10 years now with City, and I think it's a slightly complex thing because at the end of the day, he's won it. And Manchester City had never won the European cup before he took charge. That wasn't the case for Barcelona, that wasn't the case for Bayern. They were relatively accustomed those sides to winning the Champions League. And that will always be, I think, the highlight for City. Then you look at the fact it's only been once in 10 years. And I actually went back and I looked at the. The odds, the bookmakers odds at the start of every season, and I found that they were favorites to win the competition on five occasions and second favorites on two occasions. That. So that makes it seem quite bad. But then I kind of extrapolated the odds and looked at the kind of implied percentage and actually the odds would suggest that probably it would be about 1.7, 1.8 times. They should have won it over the course of a decade. So we're probably talking about maybe they should have won it twice rather than once, but there's not a huge amount in it. The problem, I think, is not necessarily how many times they've won it, but the fact they've only actually got to the semi finals 3 times in the 10 years. Having started as favorites 5 times. I do think that is a bit underwhelming. And you look at Guardiola's previous record with Barcelona and Bayern, seven seasons, seven times they made the semi finals. I always think if you make the semi finals, you've almost. You've done the job, like, to a certain extent, mad things can happen in semi finals and finals, but if you put yourself in the final four, you've kind of done the job quite well. I think the frustrating thing will be for Guardiola that when you look at who he's been eliminated by over the years, on three occasions, City have been knocked out by a Premier League team that City ended up finishing 20 points or more above at the end of the season. So Liverpool under Klopp, the mad Tottenham game, Pochettino, and then obviously the final in 2021 by Chelsea teams they should be beating, really. And they've also been eliminated by Monaco in his first season. Okay, very talented Monaco side. And Leon in 2020, which I think was probably the. The biggest failure. And now it's been Real Madrid four times in the last five seasons. The first two are very narrow, one on penalties, one that mad comeback at the Bernabeu where Rodrigo scored two in stoppage time, but the last have been 6:3 and 5:1. And City have, I think, looked overall over 180 minutes in both games have looked clearly inferior. And sometimes I just look at the Champions League and how the big games actually get decided. And for all we talk about systems and patterns, which is a style of football that Guardiola obvious basically perfected at Barcelona and to a certain extent, Bayern. But actually a lot of these really big ties between the big clubs are won by incredible individual performances, often just 20, 30 minutes, when suddenly Valverde is unstoppable, or Benzema is unstoppable, or Lewandowski or Messi, or players in those, you know, that kind of stature just win it themselves. I don't think City ever really have that, despite having so many good players. They always. They win the games in terms of flow and in terms of systems, in terms of intent. But I don't think that they've had many spells, even with Erling Haaland, where they just have one player who just does it in half an hour, scores three goals, that's the tie done. And sometimes I think Guardiola for the first time has started to maybe look a little bit dated, because football at the moment is very different, I think, from football five years ago or 10 years ago to a certain extent. I still think we're trying to work out what football's all about at the moment, and it seems massively different from the Premier League and the Champions League as we touched on earlier. But. But I've never been convinced by City this season or last season in the Premier League or in the Champions League, and actually their Champions League results have been pretty bad. They struggled to get out of the group phase last time. This time obviously they did. They were beaten fair and square over two legs.
- [22:01]
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- [23:22]
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- [23:54]
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- [24:22]
Michael Bailey
I have a simple question. Historically Real Madrid are the most successful club in the Champions League. But is this current Madrid side actually
- [24:32]
Mark Carey
any good Mark, we ask this question every single year and then they go and get to a semi final, a final or win the Champions League. So I'll start by saying that this is nothing new in terms of doubting whether or not they can do it. And I think it's because of the very nature of the club itself and the way that they are manage really and the players that they have, that it's not led by performance, it's not led by tactical systems. It's led by, to Michael's point before, it's led by individuals and talent and winning, however you may do it. So all of that being said, one thing I did look at was their defensive record this season in the Champions League and compared it to the remaining teams who have made the quarterfinals and they are conceding an expected Goals tally per 90 of 1.5, which to be fair isn't the worst, Athletico Madrid of 1.8 per 90. But it's just the idea that they will always give you chances and opportunities and obviously as you progress through the tournament, there's a higher quality, a higher caliber of talent and players who will score something out of nothing, never mind something based on 1.5XG worth of chances. So I do think, and Michael mentioned it before, they are not totally infallible this season. They haven't been in previous seasons. But then they have also then gone on to win the Champions League despite not looking the part. So it is a difficult one to sort of answer fully, I think. I mean I mentioned it before, they are kind of vibes based and I saw an interview with Gareth Bale recently and he said that across most of his time there, they would only really do kind of out of possession shape before the games against Barcelona and maybe Bayern Munich in the Champions League. But otherwise they would just kind of in training, which sounds really odd to say, but they would just do your passing drills, your rondos and maybe small sided games that that unpredictability, maybe out of possession and unpredictability in possession is both a strength and a weakness. It's a blessing and a curse. The fact that, you know, going back to the start of this season, we've spoken about it on this podcast, that Xabi Alonso didn't work out was because he tried to impose a style, make them more tactically fluid, tactically flexible and the players didn't really have it. So they're kind of getting what they want a little bit in terms of obviously Alonso's left Arbolo is in for the short term, but that unpredictability means that it is very difficult to answer that question because they will give you opportunities, but then they themselves will score maybe two or three out of nothing with the pace and the transitional threat of Vinicius or Mbappe, whoever it is, Valverde as well. So that's my long winded way of saying I don't really know. But the numbers do suggest that at the latter stages of the tournament they will certainly give up opportunities and then it's up to the opposition to go and score them.
- [27:18]
Duncan Alexander
But in, in the sort of spirit of finding a way, I think they're without Mbappe and Bellingham.
- [27:22]
Mark Carey
Yeah.
- [27:23]
Duncan Alexander
But it kind of seems to have galvanized them a bit. And you know, I think players are. De Guler and Bream Diaz are playing well and don't deserve to be shunted out if these other players return. Which may not be the case, as you know, given what we know about Real Madrid. But I think that's why it's so fascinating that they're coming up against Bayern, who are, you know, arguably maybe with Arsenal, the most sort of collectively strong, tactically adept team in the competition. So this is basically like the ultimate test of can Real Madrid pull out the hat? We'll see.
- [27:56]
Michael Bailey
Yeah. You mentioned Bayern Munich there, Duncan. I mean, I don't know if this is Premier League weariness, but we do seem to have the rare phenomenon of, of watching teams play good attacking football at the moment, Bayern Munich and Barcelona among them. And it's, it's pretty refreshing. I think those two teams, they contributed 18 out of the 68 goals in the round of 16.
- [28:18]
Michael Cox
Yeah, I was really impressed with Bayernit particularly in their first game against Atalanta, who, I don't think you're a great side these days. They're not as good as they were two years ago, but to beat them as convincingly as Bayern did I think was really impressive. The thing with Atalanta is a little bit like the Premier League size and I'd say Atalanta almost popularized this. They love man to man marking without the ball. They're really, really strict in that. And Bayern just had a great game plan for it. And I think that basically involved one rotation of positions. The, the attackers, which I think was Jackson, Nabri, Elise and Diaz in the first game were just constantly whirling. I think Jackson's actually very good at coming short and linking play. Don't think he's a great penalty box striker, but I think his all round game is quite good. And the other thing to say is that they've got great dribblers. And we talked about this a lot last season. I think Arsene Wenger kept on making the point that PSG were a bit of a throwback by having a team of attackers who could just dribble their way through opponents. And I think that was very handy against man marking, because if you can beat one opponent, you can almost expose the whole system. And I think they did that both with. With actually going past players. You know, players like Michael Alise and Musiala came off the bench and did that. Nabri was playing almost as the number 10. He's very good at going past opponents. So I think it'd be interesting if Bayern Munich were to win the Champions League, to have PSG and then them. I mean, I know they're kind of big clubs, super clubs, you can buy great players, but I do think that might indicate a little bit of a shift back towards dribbling in this era, where a lot of defenses are actually not based on zones and you have to pass through gaps. It's more just about beating your direct opponent. Because I think Bayern so far this season, domestically and in Premier League, I'd say probably have been the best team in Europe.
- [30:03]
Mark Carey
Yeah, no, I agree with that. I think another dual threat that they have is that they're able to circulate it, as Michael said, and knock it around for long periods. But then they also do pose that. That threat in behind. I mean, the final buy in goal against Atalanta in the second leg was Luis Diaz essentially running through on goal with the one on one with the goalkeeper because he can run in behind. Nicholas Jackson can run in behind, and you can have Harry Kane find those. Those balls by dropping in deeper as well. So they can go short and go long, which is the. It shows that Manchester City and Arsenal last summer bought players to be able to have that kind of dual threat. They've not quite perfected it, even though, of course, Arsenal are doing so, so well in. In multiple competitions. But Bayern, I think, have perfected it, or they're further along the line in that regard. And I think they're also very good, I suppose, backing themselves out of possession as well. They have such elite players that they themselves can often go man for man and really squeeze the pitch. Probably more so in the Bundesliga than the. The Champions League. They might be a little bit more pragmatic in the Champions League, back themselves to. It's not even winning the ball back high up sometimes. It's just going man for man, really squeezing the pitch and forcing the opponent into a long ball and then just mopping up any, any loose balls and kind of starting a new wave of attack. And they, as I said, they do do that really well in, in the league. They would have to be a little bit more cautious if they're playing against the Real Madrid side who are, as mentioned before, kind of vibes based and they could themselves be be strong in, in 1v1 situation. So I'll be interested to see how much that maybe changes from domestic league for Bayern to the Champions League. But the final thing I'd say is that they are also a little bit more pragmatic compared to last season because it was their undoing. A little bit. They'd be a little bit too aggressive and then they themselves would get caught on the counterattack. Kind of like what we said about Manchester City. But there's not too much that's changed in terms of the way they approach it. But I think they just have got a bit more of an understanding of what Vincent Kompany is asking them to do and they will drop in a little bit more pragmatically when they know that, okay, that press has been broken.
- [31:56]
Duncan Alexander
The only counter to all of that, which I largely agree with both of you, is the one time they have been dominated this season was against Arsenal in the league stage. And I know we've said that yes, the league stage doesn't replicate itself in the knockouts. But if you look at the numbers from that game, Arsenal had 3.1 XG. They created seven big chances and missed four of them. Bayern had a couple of shots on target, so Arsenal did get to grips with them. Now obviously that was at the Emirates. If they met in the final, which is the earliest they could meet, it would be a very different game, I'm sure. But I do think they are the two strongest teams in Europe, but just in slightly different ways.
- [32:34]
Mark Carey
You mentioned Barcelona as well at the start of this question, Michael, that just going about Barcelona. I think they themselves as is widely spoken about and we have on this podcast spoken about their fallibility with the high line. They're so exciting going forward and they had such great rotations in the game against Newcastle at the Camp Nou and we know how strong their attacking players are. The high line continues to be something of a problem. Newcastle's. Both of Newcastle's goals this week were essentially from the high line. And the way that teams often do it is that rather than just going through an obvious ball of trying to play a through ball and the opposition in Barcelona stepping up and then playing the opposition offside, it will often be kind of round the sides, making sure that a fullback or winger will receive it down the sides and then the forward. It's happened a few times this season against Barcelona. The forward will sort of be in an offside position, knowing that they will then get back onside and all they have to do is be behind the ball, not necessarily behind the teammate with the offside law that then they can just sort of have a simple tap in. Yet they are in behind Barcelona's high line. And that essentially happened twice, mainly the first goal for Newcastle this week as well. So again, an example of a side who could be yet fallible. Everyone sort of has their strengths and weaknesses, but that's Barcelona's most obvious one, despite them being so attacking going forward.
- [34:02]
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- [34:34]
Michael Cox
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Mark Carey
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- [35:05]
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- [35:33]
Michael Bailey
We should probably take a little extra time to look at Arsenal who feel like the antithesis of a side playing just off vibes. I mean they have the best defensive record in the league phase. They're also the least threatened side over the two legs in the round of 16, I guess. Michael, is it because of their defensive record that they're maybe the side most suited to knock out competition at the moment? They are going to face better sides than Leverkusen, obviously, eventually in this tournament.
- [36:04]
Michael Cox
Yeah. Although I think the draw in the quarterfinal against Sporting is probably the most charitable they could have got. We saw Sporting this week. Pretty good side, but, yeah, I think Arsenal done quite well with that. Yeah, overall, I think just defensively they are very strong. They. They have two very good center backs. I think they protect them well. The fullbacks can defend. The structure is pretty good from higher up. I think at times they press well and they don't give their defense too much work to do. So, yeah, they do feel a little bit like a throwback. I was going to say almost like an old Italian side, but I think almost like a kind of 20 years ago when Valencia and Deportiva were really kind of disciplined and strong and had big, physical defenders and also had a little bit of flare and attack. But, yeah, I think Arsenal, not sure they're the best team, but I think they're the most suited to the knockout format. I know they finished top of the league format as well, but I think they will keep clean sheets. You know, they. They didn't sparkle, I don't think, over 180 minutes against Leverkusen. I think the first leg, they were fairly poor going forward, but you just never think they're going to concede many goals. The irony being that the one they did concede was from a set piece.
- [37:09]
Michael Bailey
Yeah, I guess that's the thing. They're probably the hardest side to beat. Mark and Duncan, you were both at a leg each of the Arsenal Leverkusen tie, which I'm sure was completely planned. Mark, do you want to go first?
- [37:21]
Duncan Alexander
Yeah.
- [37:21]
Mark Carey
Let's go in chronological order, because I was at the first leg in Leverkusen. I think Michael mentioned it. I think my main takeaway was that they did. They sort of dominated the game broadly. Leverkusen did knock it around themselves quite well and got out a lot of. Got out of a lot of pressured situations that Arsenal tried to do when they squeezed the pitch. But Arsenal largely had most of the ball and most of the attack, and they kind of struggled to deal with Leverkusen's back five, and Leverkusen were able to get bodies into the wide areas and force Arsenal every time. They themselves got it wide to go backwards, essentially and kind of funnel it back into central areas and didn't have too much of a threat until they then did have a threat by Nonny Madueke coming on and actually driving on the outside for a change which Saka didn't do that much in the game and then won the penalty as a consequence. So there was that. And yeah, I mean again Michael mentioned it, they were. They were undone by a set piece. And I mean to again to dovetail with what Michael said before looking at Arsenal's or every quarter finalists expected goals against this season only goes to reiterate what Michael's saying. 0.76 per 90 expected goals against for Arsenal is the. Is the lowest of any side in terms of chances conceded. So you can imagine that they are going to just do the same against Sporting. Not let too much in behind but. But make sure they have a really strong foundation to go forward and over to Duncan for the second leg live.
- [38:40]
Duncan Alexander
I mean Michael said about Arsenal being probably the best seated team to this knockout stage and I think one of the reasons that's true is that they just learn. They learn from every game and I think you saw in the second leg that they worked out what hadn't worked in the first leg and dealt with it. They played Trossard and Saka inside. It almost looked like a 42 2, 2 at points as they almost pushed up top next to Gokarez. They let Leverkusen have a lot of the ball. I think Arsenal had 42% possession which is really low for them at home and they kind of just sort of bounced the ball around and created lots of good opportunities. I think 12 shots on target is the most they've had in a game this season. As Michael said, it never really looked in doubt and I think actually they not only will they be pleased to be facing Sporting, I think they'll be pleased that they're facing Sporting rather than Bodo Glimt. I think that's much more of a sort of loose cannon coin toss of particularly the away leg. So yeah, I think they'll be very confident of a fairly smooth passage through to the semis.
- [39:39]
Michael Bailey
Well, we're down to the final eight of this season's Champions League. Who do we fancy as the favorites to lift the European cup this year? How's it all going to go? Who wants to go first? Michael.
- [39:51]
Michael Cox
I think Barcelona and Bayern play the best attacking football and I think they might be the best two teams but Arsenal have got a good draw. I don't want to be too disrespectful to Sporting, but I do think they've got a good draw and I do think they are suited to knockout competitions. So if I was to bet on one side getting to the final I would go for Arsenal. But I do think there's a good chance that Bayern in particular can prove themselves the best team in Europe this year.
- [40:15]
Mark Carey
Yeah, I mean I agree, I think Barcelona, much like last season, they are so aesthetically pleasing, they're so great to watch, but they will concede chances and likely concede goals and I think that will be only more true against the elite size that they'll come up against in the quarterfinals, potentially semi, finals and or final. So I agree that that Bayern are devastating going forward, but they do have a little bit more strength defensively. Arsenal you can definitely include within that as well. So I think yeah, Bayern Munich and and Arsenal are the two sides for me.
- [40:45]
Duncan Alexander
I'll look at the well regarded Opta supercomputer and they've got Arsenal as favorites follower buying, then Barcelona, then psg, then Madrid, then Liverpool, then Athletico and then Sporting as the outsiders. Which feels about right I think. I do think the PSG Liverpool tie is interesting because I think either one of those clubs, whichever gets through, could sort of build a bit of momentum and they definitely both got players that could cause issues to either Real Madrid or Bayern. So I wouldn't rule out either probably psg, let's be honest. But I wouldn't rule out them making a return to the final. Yeah, I think it's clear that Bayern and Arsenal are the two outstanding teams this year, but as we know we very rarely get a Champions League final between the two outstanding teams.
- [41:30]
Michael Cox
True.
- [41:31]
Michael Bailey
That is all we have time for today, so a huge thank you to Michael Duncan. Mark, please do send your thoughts and topic suggestions into us. The email address is tacticspod theathletic.com we'll see you again very soon and in the meantime, enjoy the football.
- [41:48]
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- [42:26]
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