The Athletic FC Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Who needs European football the most?
Release Date: February 28, 2025
Hosts/Guests:

• Host: Adam Levantal (Noah Chestnut)
• Guests: Tim Spears, Nick Miller, Paul Taylor, Liam Toomey, Sam Lee, Jacob Tanswell, Chris Woff

Introduction

In this episode, Adam Levantal delves into the Premier League teams vying for European football spots. Joined by The Athletic's football writers—Tim Spears and Nick Miller—the discussion navigates through the aspirations, performances, and challenges of various clubs in their pursuit of European competition.

Nottingham Forest's Hunt for Europe

Paul Taylor provides an insightful analysis of Nottingham Forest's recent performance:

"The Nil Nil draw with Arsenal at the City Ground wasn't the win that Nottingham Forest craved, but it was a performance that kind of reinvigorated their hopes of finishing in the Champions League places this season." [02:28]

Forest, under Nuno Espirito Santo, have shown defensive strength and discipline, crucial for their Champions League ambitions. Despite a historical average of 48 points over 20 years—which falls short of the 64-point average needed for a fifth-place finish—Forest's remaining 11 games, with six at home, present a realistic opportunity to secure European football. Tim Spears optimistically predicts:

"I think Forest will finish fifth." [09:13]
"I'd say fourth probably." [09:47]

Arsenal's Position in the League

Tim Spears discusses Arsenal's standing, highlighting their robust defense but struggles in goal-scoring:

"I'm right in saying they've still got the best defense in the league... but goals have been a problem." [07:16]

Despite being 13 points behind Liverpool and holding a game in hand, Arsenal are unlikely to be dragged into a top-four battle. Spears forecasts:

"They are going to finish second." [07:16]

This sentiment is echoed by Liam Toomey, who notes Arsenal's underwhelming offensive output compared to the previous season.

Manchester City's Struggles and Champions League Implications

Sam Lee addresses Manchester City's current form and the financial stakes of missing the Champions League:

"Qualifying for the Champions League is huge... financially, you need to be in the Champions League." [10:13]

Despite recent improvements, Tim Spears expresses skepticism about City's consistency:

"They're nowhere near what they could be... I'd be really surprised if they didn't finish top five." [11:54]

The potential financial loss from missing out on Champions League football is substantial, emphasizing the need for City to stabilize their performance.

Chelsea's Recent Performances and Ownership Issues

Liam Toomey highlights Chelsea's resurgence in the Champions League qualification race following a comfortable win over Southampton:

"This could prove to be an important palate cleanser for Chelsea after a dreadful 10 game run." [21:45]

However, Tim Spears critiques the team's consistency and ownership turmoil:

"If you're looking for a surprise team to not make the top five, I think Chelsea, I'm not convinced by them at all at the moment." [25:12]
"It's a kind of, yeah, as you say, it's a point of difference... it's like guarding is still figuring out how to slot them all in." [Tim Spears discussing Chelsea's squad issues]

The episode touches upon fan dissatisfaction with the current ownership, with protests favoring a return to the Roman Abramovich era, reflecting broader discontent within the Chelsea supporter base.

Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United's European Hopes

Tim Spears evaluates Tottenham's and Manchester United's prospects:

Tim on Tottenham: "If they have a fully fit squad, if they were to finish 11th in the league and win the Europa League... it would be an incredibly successful season." [16:02]
Tim on Manchester United: "They just seem to have this kind of propensity to just step on rakes at every turn and smash themselves in the face." [20:35]

Both clubs face significant challenges in securing European spots, with United's internal issues under Reuben Amarim casting doubts on their Europa League ambitions.

Newcastle United's Critical Need for Champions League

Chris Woff underscores Newcastle's precarious position:

"Newcastle have done what they always do when they go to Anfield and they've come here and they've lost... they are six in the table, which is probably about right for now." [29:06]

Newcastle's Champions League hopes are pivotal for retaining key players like Alexander Isak. Tim Spears concurs, emphasizing Newcastle's necessity to secure European football:

"Probably, yeah. I mean they're just such a weird team... nobody's really that consistent, you then kind of go to who has the kind of most potential to put in some brilliant performances." [Tim on Newcastle’s inconsistency]

Other Teams: Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham, and Aston Villa

Brighton has shown adaptability under Herzler, adjusting their playing style to improve possession metrics:

"Full credit to Herzler for making them, I guess, more adaptable." [32:58]

Bournemouth, despite a shaky start, display potential for a late-season surge:

"They're the ones that seem to have the kind of highest ceiling... maybe put in that kind of good run of four or five games." [Tim Spears]

Fulham remains a steady team with aspirations to break into the top six:

"Fulham will be right up there... finish eighth, great." [Tim Spears]

Aston Villa, struggling defensively and offensively, face a tough road ahead:

"They can't afford for their European run to dry... goals have been a problem for them all season." [Jacob Tanswell]

Conclusion: Who Needs European Football the Most?

As the podcast wraps up, Tim Spears and Nick Miller deliberate on which teams stand to falter the most without European competition. Tim Spears suggests:

"Possibly Manchester United, which is pretty bad news for them... teams like Forest, Bournemouth, and maybe Fulham with Brighton." [43:52]

However, Tim Spears also emphasizes that Forest and Bournemouth might be the most desperate for European spots, given their limited historical success:

"Forest, you know, this might be their only shot certainly at the Champions League. Bournemouth have never been in Europe." [44:28]

This sentiment is reinforced by the factual context that Nottingham Forest last participated in European competition in the mid-1990s and Bournemouth have never qualified.

Key Takeaways:

• Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are the most in need of securing European football slots due to their historical and current standings.

• Arsenal is expected to comfortably secure second place without significant threat from rivals.

• Manchester City faces challenges in maintaining their Champions League qualification due to inconsistent performances.

• Chelsea shows signs of resurgence but is hampered by ownership issues and inconsistency.

• Newcastle United's Champions League aspirations are critical for retaining key players and managing financial stability.

• Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United struggle with internal issues that impede their European ambitions.

Notable Quotes:

• Paul Taylor on Nottingham Forest’s performance:
  "They were defensively strong, they were disciplined, they were hard to break down, and they got a result that was a positive one." [02:28]

• Tim Spears predicting Forest’s finish:
  "I think Forest will finish fifth." [09:13]
  "I'd say fourth probably." [09:47]

• Tim Spears on Manchester City’s consistency:
  "They're nowhere near what they could be." [11:54]

• Liam Toomey on Chelsea’s recent form:
  "This could prove to be an important palate cleanser for Chelsea after a dreadful 10 game run." [21:45]

• Chris Woff on Newcastle’s situation:
  "They've got to make sure they bounce back in the next Premier League game." [29:06]

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's discussions, providing an in-depth look into the Premier League's race for European football, the teams involved, their current standings, and the critical implications of their performances.