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- [00:01]
Advertiser
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- [00:27]
Noah Chestnut
Hey, it's Noah Chestnut from the Athletic. If you're into games and sports, pay attention. I'm gonna give you four sports terms. You tell me the common thread. Ready? Game. Match point. Set. This one's kind of a gimme. The answer is how tennis is scored. Do you want more of a challenge? Check out Connections Sports Edition. It's a new daily game for sports fans to play. Now go to TheAthletic.comConnection.
- [01:01]
Tim Spears
The Athletic FC podcast network.
- [01:11]
Noah Chestnut
Hi there, it's Adam Levantal. Welcome to the Athletic fc. This week we're focusing on the Premier League teams chasing European football. And joining me today are the Athletics football writers Tim Spears and Nick Miller. One who is hoping for European football and the other Tim. Well, wolves aren't getting into Europe anytime soon, are they?
- [01:42]
Advertiser
Been there, mate. Enjoyed it. Next.
- [01:44]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah, just had that little taste. What, a few years ago and you've had enough?
- [01:48]
Advertiser
Sounds great. Yeah, yeah, let someone else have a go, you know.
- [01:50]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah, cool. But, Nick, you're dreaming of it, aren't you?
- [01:54]
Tim Spears
Yeah, very much so. Dreaming. I remember the last time for us were in Europe in 1996. And, yeah, remember being livid that I wasn't allowed to go to any of the away games because they're on school nights.
- [02:05]
Noah Chestnut
Oh, dear.
- [02:05]
Tim Spears
I think I'm owed a nice juicy European run.
- [02:10]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah, well, and it's looking a lot better. There was a little bit of a wobble, but the draw midweek against Arsenal Nil Nil draw at the City ground in front of the Nottingham Forest. Writer for the Athletic, Paul Taylor just settled a few nos. Let's just check in with him first.
- [02:28]
Paul Taylor
The Nil Nil draw with Arsenal at the City Ground wasn't the win that Nottingham Forest craved, but it was a performance that kind of reinvigorated their hopes of. Of finishing in the Champions League places this season. Three consecutive away defeats had had kind of hinted that there might be a bit of a blip on the horizon for Nuno Espirito Santo's side, but the performance against second placed Arsenal. Kind of Nuno put it this way, he said that they'd found themselves again, they'd rediscovered what made them strong and that that was the perfect way of putting it. Forest were defensively strong, they were disciplined, they were hard to break down, and they got a result that was a positive one. At the end of the day, where does it leave their Champions League hopes? They've got 48 points over the last 20 years of Premier League football. The average points tally for getting fifth place in the Premier League has been 64. So there's a goal there for them. They need another 16 points from their remaining 11 games. Given that they've only lost twice at the City ground this season, given that they've been in such good form on home turf, where the crowd play a real part in being the wind behind their backs, and that six of their remaining 11 games are at home, then you've got to think that Forest have got a real opportunity. Whatever happens, this has been a fairytale season for Nottingham Forest and hopefully they can secure the ending that everybody craves to that.
- [03:54]
Noah Chestnut
And Nick, obviously, yeah, the dream is to get in the Champions League. Would you feel now that the Europa League would be a disappointment despite the fact that at the beginning of the season you were probably just thinking just, just finish 17th and then that's we're quids in?
- [04:08]
Tim Spears
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it is amazing how quickly expectations change. But, yeah, I think. I mean, I would be delighted with Europa League, but now you've got a little bit of a taste of it and it's. There is the. The little extra thing of it almost certainly being place that will qualify for the Champions League this season. As absurd as it sounds, it will be a bit. A little bit of a letdown if Forest are merely in the Europa League next season. But, yeah, I mean, as you say, I think at the start of the season there were a lot of predictions that Forest would get relegated, and they were always a little bit pessimistic. But I think most, most Forest fans would have been delighted with sort of, you know, 12th or something. And if, you know, if everything had broken right and we'd got a lot of luck and no injur and we might have gotten the top half. But it's an extraordinary situation to be in, to be, you know, now almost March and, you know, still in the Champions League places.
- [05:07]
Noah Chestnut
Speaking of pessimism, I wanted to come to Tim. Well, why not read the comments? They love your pessimism in terms of the teams that are chasing Down Nottingham Forest. Newcastle, Chelsea. Manchester City. Newcastle down in sixth, four points back. Chelsea see in fifth, two points back and City just a point back. Do you see Nottingham Forest being able to hold their nerve and hold those teams off? They don't obviously need to hold all of them off. But those big guns are coming and they're not far away.
- [05:42]
Advertiser
Yeah, I think it's. It's going to be about consistency. I mean that's what, that's what got Forest to sort of second, third in the first place. They just had this like really weird wobble for the last few weeks, you know, I think they won was it six in a row around Christmas. And they look sort of almost nailed on for top five at that point. But that Southampton game they had when they were, they should have won it pretty comfortably and then they had a right wobble and only sort of scraped over the line at 3:2. So since then their consistency has just sort of evaporated really. I mean they had that. They had that five nil defeat at Bournemouth followed by seven nil win against Brighton, which is just. Which is just mad. Then you know, they go and lose to Newcastle 4, 3 in a thriller and follow that up with like a really sort of sturdy nil nil against Arsenal. So they're all over the place, to be honest. Which, which Nuno will hate. Look, I mean on their day they're not the third best team in the country, I think. I'm sure Nick would say that as well. So there may be some leveling out to come over the next few weeks. But it's consistency that got them to third. They just need to find a little bit of that again. And it does feel and sort of backed up from what Tails was saying that the draw against Arsenal was really sort of important in midweek for laying down a marker from a defensive point of view because that's obviously their biggest strength.
- [06:51]
Noah Chestnut
And just a word on, on Arsenal. They're obviously 13 points away from Liverpool now. I know they have a game in hand. They're six points above Nottingham Forest and then what, seven points ahead of the chasing pack, Manchester City, etc. Etc. Do you see them being dragged into a fight for the top four or do you think they're guaranteed second and that's where they're going to finish? Tim?
- [07:17]
Advertiser
Yeah, I can see them sort of having a pretty boring end to the season to be honest. I don't see them getting dragged into it. You know, once sort of Saka and Martinelli are back, I think we'll see A pretty sizable improvement from them in the front line. It's really weird. Arsenal again, it's very underwhelming. They had that 51 win over City and since then a really poor in the results. And goal scoring has been an issue, you know, all season long. I think, I think I'm right in saying they've still got the best defense in the league, which you think should see them through in terms of finishing second over the next few weeks. But goals have been a problem. They scored 91 last season. They're only on 51 now with 11 games left, which is, you know, fewer than spurs who are down in 13th. But once Sakura Martinelli back, that adds a few goals to the team. There's no way they're going to get dragged into, into a top four fight.
- [08:10]
Tim Spears
I suppose the only thing to, to consider with that is how much they now think, well, the title's gone, so let's focus everything on the Champions League. So and if they, if they do that then, you know, then you might see the league position slip a bit. But yeah, as I mean, as Tim said, but for both Forest and Arsenal purposes, it's sort of almost less that about their strengths and more that you don't or you don't necessarily trust the teams below them to be consistent enough to, to catch them in a hurry. I mean, man, City, probably the obvious one, but you know, Newcastle Apache and Chelsea are one winner midweek, but they are. They've been going through some rough form and I'm really got a striker to speak of and yeah, the rest are, you know, Bournemouth obviously lost in midweek as well, so it's a little bit tricky to, to see which of those teams which will come onto which of those teams are going to be consistent enough to catch them before we get to City.
- [09:10]
Noah Chestnut
Quick prediction from you, Nick, on where Forest will finish.
- [09:14]
Tim Spears
I think Forest will finish fifth.
- [09:17]
Noah Chestnut
Fifth last day. Oh, they've scored, they've done it.
- [09:21]
Tim Spears
Whereas Chelsea, Chelsea at home on the last day, which could, which at the start of the season felt like a kind of quite a. Well, at the start of the season, I think possibly Forest fans hoped that will be completely meaningless. Like, you know, nice day in the sunshine, but now looks like could be a Champions League shootout.
- [09:41]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah. And Tim, you obviously think that Arsenal will finish second. Do you think Forest will make it into the top five?
- [09:48]
Advertiser
Yeah, I think fourth probably. I mean, you know, you think City without Europe will, will probably overtake them. Although they play each other, don't they, next weekend. Which tells us a Lot, but, yeah, I think probably fourth.
- [09:58]
Noah Chestnut
Okay, well, let's get on to the team that are currently in fourth and the Athletics. Manchester City writer Sam Lee was at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as Erling Haaland's goal was enough to see out that 10 victory for the visitors.
- [10:13]
Sam Lee
Given City's position, they won't be too bothered about performances at this stage of the season now, where they're obviously just looking to finish in the top four, or top five. If fifth place does guarantee a route into the Champions League. It's the three points that matter. And obviously, on an evening when Forest and Arsenal drew with each other, it's a huge result for City, obviously. The thing is, with teams that are flawed, like City, are going for the top four, there's always likely to be another stumble, another setback. The reason City are in this situation is because they've been so inconsistent. There are green shoots of recovery. You can see that in the way that they played in the first half. Some of the old frailties are still there. You can see that in the way they played in the second half. But they do seem to be improving. The next league match is against Forest away, so that'll obviously be tough. That'll be another big test. We might know a bit more about their. Their fortunes after that. And obviously, qualifying for the Champions League is huge. Look, going out this year, it cost them what, you know, you could say 10 million pounds, 15 million, depending on what you would have expected them to do, maybe more based on UEFA prize money. But the big. The big cash loss would be not qualifying for the Champions League at all. You get about the global pot for everybody for the champions league is 2 billion pounds. For the Europa League, the global pot for Everybody is about 465 million. 460 million. So it's nothing like the same. So, yeah, financially, you need to be in the Champions League. And, yeah, that's why this was a big win for City. But of course, they'll need to do more.
- [11:42]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah. And do you expect them to just via their muscle memory of being up the top, they'll just be able to settle into that final fling and secure that Champions League spot?
- [11:54]
Advertiser
Tim, I'm not sure their muscle memory is going to come back this season. I mean, Pep's sort of suggested they haven't got it within their capabilities, really, for it to return this season. And, you know, okay, they're winning midweek, but still miles off it when it comes to their previous levels. You know, we saw them in their defeats in February, comfortable defeats To Liverpool, Real Madrid and Arsenal, you know, didn't really lay a glove on any of them. Yeah, again, again like Forest and Arsenal. No sort of consistency for City at the moment. But you think without Europe they, they will have enough for top five. I'd be amazed if they didn't finish in the, in the top five. You know, especially with obviously Haaland back and scoring in midweek, but with them improving the spine in January, I think that's with Mahmouche and Nico Gonzalez and Kusanov, I think that's enough to, to get them over the line against top level opponents. They look so short, but they do be average and poor teams still very consistently, you know, until Rodri comes back and they sort out the rest of that midfield and how they progress into attack, they're not going to be the same team again. But yeah, I'd be really surprised if they didn't finish top five.
- [13:03]
Noah Chestnut
Are you, are you still enjoying the subplot of City struggling this season, Nick? Just simply not because it's an anti City thing, but just as an example that you can be so dominant and things, if they're not quite right, can go off and go off quite badly.
- [13:22]
Tim Spears
Yeah, it's kind of the sort of empire's crumbling very rapidly kind of thing, which is, yeah, as you say, it's a point of difference, isn't it? I mean, in previous years we have sort of got slightly. Got sucked into this idea and I'm as guilty of it as anyone of this idea that City were completely inevitable and they were going to stroll the league every year, but they only actually won it by, I think it was two points last season. A few seasons ago they won it on the last day. Again, a couple of seasons ago they won it by five points. But that was only because Arsenal kind of ran out of steam in the last couple of games. So I mean, if you speak to City fans that they, some or some City fans anyway, they will tell you that the signs of this were kind of their last season, that they sort of not quite struggled over the line, but they weren't the sort of dominant team that they had been in the past and everyone said they were. And then obviously Rodri's injury caused everything to collapse for a few months. And yeah, they're looking better now, nowhere near what they could be. They're a kind of funny team in that they've got all that. They've now got all these kind of attacking options. But it seems like Guardia is still kind of figuring out how to Slot them all in like. Savinho is clearly much better on the left, but Docu's been really good there. Got Grealish there as well. Whereas Mahmouche seems to be the kind of the new Julian Alvarez. But then you got to sort of hopefully fit Phil Foden in there somewhere. And then, I don't know, watching Kevin de Bruyne is a bit of a struggle at the moment. It's like this, you know, this. If you wanted to kind of go a little bit too grand about it, he's. It could be the symbol of City kind of collapsing over this year that he, you know, this once great player is now looks quite like a slightly sad shadow of his former self. So, yeah, it has been certainly kind of more entertaining for a neutral to not have City at the top all the time, and then it's just been replaced by this other ludicrously consistent team who are miles clear of everyone else, but at least it's a different one.
- [15:23]
Noah Chestnut
Well, speaking of empires that are, well, not necessarily crumbling, but I don't know, maybe they're having a survey done at the moment. Spurs down in 13th, United in 14th. Both sides on 33 points, 13 points off the top five. So little chance for either of those two qualifying for the Champions League via the league, but they could get there still by winning the Europa League. Tim, from your point of view, do you see this spurs side being capable of winning the Europa League?
- [16:03]
Advertiser
Well, they're potential route to the finals, not too bad. I think the stronger half of the draw is. Is. Is the bottom half where you've got Roma, sort of one of the former teams in Europe, or Athletic Bilbao, I think, a fourth in La Liga and they would potentially host the final if they get there. So United's half of the draw is tougher. So I think Spurs's potential route when they've got Az obviously in the next round, then it's Ajax or Einjack Frankfurt and then probably Lazio in the semis. So, you know, potentially a route to the final there. But this is. This is spurs, so. So, you know, we can't make any predictions on that front, but they do look a bit stronger recently. They obviously had that run of three in a row which sort of settled things down. I was kind of, kind of pleased for Postecogna, really. You know, although he was being rude and. And a real sort of, you know, ass to everybody, he looks like he was carrying the whole world on his back. I was. I definitely got to the point where I was feeling Sorry for him and it. Something needed to happen. Either he needs to be put out of his misery or we got, you know, temporarily. This had this happy ending where he sort of won a few matches and relieved the pressure. So, yeah, spurs team, I know they lost him midweek, but I'm not, I wouldn't read too much into that. They've obviously got some, some players coming back, but this is now the point where the ones that have been flogged for the last two months probably need a bit of a break, which is why he dropped Son and Kulasevskiy midweek. So I think you're still going to get sort of an unusual chopping and changing of the team for a while. I mean, the front three against City midweek, Johnson, Tell and Odebear, sort of very, sort of unfamiliar. They've still got Archie Gray, a teenager at center back. If they had a. This is a huge if. If they had a fully fit squad, which I don't expect to happen because, you know, the muscle injuries that they keep, keep picking up with the style of football and the training that they're doing. But if they have, you know, mostly a fully fit squad, if they were to finish 11th in the league and win the Europa League, which by the way would overshadow absolutely everything they've done all season, then obviously it would be an incredibly successful season and complete justification for postecoglou after all that, for what he's been doing. So it is there for them. You know, like I said, there's a route to the final that's there for them and that should be huge motivation and getting players back at just the right time.
- [18:20]
Noah Chestnut
Let's talk about Manchester United, Nick. Obviously, you know, the dominant headline this week has been about more redundancies for, you know, backroom staff at Old Trafford, the people working in offices and things like that, the cost cutting of the club. And it does still feel odd to be talking about this huge giant, but watching the pennies so much under the new running of officer Jim Radcliffe, etc. Etc. But it makes it even more important that they, that they get European football once again via the league, be that the Europa League or they could even get the Champions League via winning the Europa League. But from what you're seeing week in, week out, does that look likely? I suppose it's a similar sort of predicament than Tottenham, isn't it?
- [19:11]
Tim Spears
Yeah, I mean, I think I would say Tottenham are more likely than, than United just because United, even even winning the. In midweek, they still managed to Kind of throw in a. Some kind of slapstick calamity. And there as well, you know, as. As absurd as it kind of sounds, Dorgu was. Seemed to play quite well other than, you know, giving away a goal and then getting sent off immediately. Other than that. Did you Enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln kind of thing. But it was. They just seem to on the pitch and off the pitch really, they seem to have this kind of propensity to just step on rakes at every turn and smash themselves in the face. So I wouldn't really trust them to win the Europa League, particularly, as Tim's pointed out, they are in the more difficult half of the draw and I wouldn't necessarily trust them to finish a huge amount higher in the Premier League either. So, yeah, I mean, again, if we're talking about feeling sorry for managers, you feel sorry for Reuben Amarim sometimes when he's kind of stood there on the touchline. In my head, it's always raining when the camera cuts to him because he just looks the sort of epitome of the beleaguered man, just kind of questioning his life choices. Why did I choose? Why did I take this job? And why did I take this job in the middle of the season? I had a lovely life in Lisbon and now it's all kind of. I'm cloaked in misery.
- [20:35]
Advertiser
That's just a leaky roof, isn't it? It's not raining.
- [20:38]
Tim Spears
Well, there you go. There is pretty sorry sight a lot of the time. And I wouldn't necessarily trust them to go much further in the Europa League or as I say, finish much higher in the Premier League.
- [20:58]
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- [21:14]
Noah Chestnut
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- [21:16]
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- [21:31]
Noah Chestnut
Well, let's move down to the team in fifth in the Premier League and that's Chelsea. And let's hear from our Chelsea writer, Liam Toomey, who was speaking after that 40 stroll over Southampton.
- [21:45]
Liam Toomey
For the first time in two months, it feels like everything's coming up Chelsea in the Champions League qualification race. Away defeats for Aston Villa and Bournemouth created the opportunity for Maresca's team to start bringing the momentum back their way. And Southampton proved to be the perfect opponents at Stamford Bridge. They played down to their league position to such an extent that not even Cole Palmer being pretty far from his cold self was enough to prevent Chelsea from running out comfortable winners. This could prove to be an important palate cleanser for Chelsea after a dreadful 10 game run. Much tougher tests beyond that, but this result was enough to send them back up into fourth. And it's clear, given the stumbles of their rivals, that that Chelsea's window to get back into Europe's elite club competition is still wide open.
- [22:39]
Noah Chestnut
And Tim, judging from what they've been doing, you obviously don't want to read too much into a victory over Southampton because I reckon probably US three against Southampton at the moment could probably, probably do a job judging by how they're faring. But do you see them sort of getting back on track hook or by crook and securing that Champions League place?
- [23:02]
Advertiser
I mean, you can't say that from what's just happened, you know, I mean, they had probably the lowest point of the season after those two awful defeats at Brighton. One in the cup and one in the league. You know, to beat Southampton at home just means absolutely nothing. It's sort of, you know, it's like beating Ireland in test cricket. If you don't do it, it's utterly embarrassing. It's just something you have to do. It's the ultimate sort of must win game, isn't it, this season? And it wasn't, you know, okay, they ran out comfortable winners, but it wasn't convincing. There was, there was nervousness, you know, in the, in the opening, sort of very stale sort of 20 minutes and there's a real impatience about the style of football that they're continuing to try and play. I don't think Chelsea fans have, have taken to Maresca, you know, in that, in that regard. So, yeah, it does seem like, you know, reading some of Liam's stuff this week, it does seem like they've had a bit of a reset after those Brighton defeats. But the, the sort of tariff for the style of football that they're looking to play is so high. You know, if, if it clicks and it works, then you know, they could have something pretty special with all the talent they've got. But when it doesn't work, which it happens most of the time at the moment, it's. I mean, Christ, it's a, it's a tough watch. They've obviously got this over reliance on Palmer who's done nothing for some time, and Jackson who's injured for some time. You know, they've got no other goal scorers, they've got a nervous defense. I think if any of the sort of, you know, if you're looking for a surprise team to not make the top five, I think, I think, I think Chelsea, I'm not convinced by them at all at the moment.
- [24:33]
Noah Chestnut
And it's interesting, Nick, that they've been sort of living in this parallel European universe of playing in the, in the Conference League this season. But obviously they would strive to. To get into the Champions League because they've got, you know, a rich history in that tournament recently. But do you think that they're. They're good enough and the squad is strong enough? Many people would say that Cole Palmer but belongs in the Champions League. But do you think that. That it would be the best next step for them to be in the Champions League because it could strengthen them financially. It would. It would attract bigger players, et cetera, et cetera. Not that they'd necessarily be in. In the market for established names because they go for young guns, don't they?
- [25:12]
Tim Spears
Yeah. I mean, it is. It is kind of particularly weird that they. I think our colleague Adam Crafton said a few maybe like a year or so ago that, that you kind of look at this champ, this Chelsea team squad, and you still think, yeah, I could do with another 100 million quid spent on that. Because they just seem, you know, as you say, they haven't got a striker. The goalkeeping situation is weird. And they seem to have like two number two goalkeepers who neither of whom you was particularly trust. Central defense is a bit iffy. So, you know, you think that like early on in the season, Cole Palmer being brilliant, piping over a few cracks, maybe so, yeah, like, I think like, Tim, of the teams that are kind of there at the moment, they're the ones you sort of least trust to finish in the top four, top five. It feels like there are enough teams that are around that kind of area in this sort of top eight. I guess that is it a little bit like in the. What sometimes happens in the playoffs in the championship, where like a really good run towards the end of the season will kind of get you in. If there are teams like Newcastle or Bournemouth or maybe Villa who are still sort of in touch with six, seven games to go, they go on a really good run towards the end and they could get in. Whereas Chelsea are flawed enough that you wouldn't necessarily trust them to do that.
- [26:43]
Noah Chestnut
It was interesting, Tim, that I went along to Stamford Bridge prior to the game against Southampton, just to do some recording for a documentary, which I'll tell you about later on in the. And it was very odd to sort of taste the atmosphere because there was protests against the current ownership. They were calling for Roman Abramovich to come back. They want their Chelsea back. They were singing. There was even calls for Jose Mourinho to come back, which I found sort of confusing. What's your take on how the Chelsea fans think about their current ownership and why they would want Roman Abramovich and everything that that means back at the football club? Is it as confusing to you as it as you can clearly sound? It is to me.
- [27:33]
Advertiser
I mean, I guess. I guess from Chelsea fans point of view, they've spent. Was it a billion and a half to go backwards? I mean, you know, at the end of the Abramovic era, they won the Champions League and they've sort of got, you know, obviously they made some terrible. Some terrible decisions. You know, there was the Tuchel, then Potter debacle and Pochettino, whatever happened there. And now Maresco's. No one's sort of convinced with. But it's bigger than that. It's. It's like. It's selling players like Conor Gallagher, who's like, you know, the lifeblood of the club, because they're more bothered about money, but yet they're wasting that money on very sort of stupid spending, you know, a real lack of identity at the club, no progress on sort of revamping or. Or building a new stadium and an owner who looks pretty stupid sometimes with some of the things he says and some of the things he does and, you know, senior figures at the club not getting on very well. And, yeah, it's a bit of a mess. You know, if I was a Chelsea fan, I'd be pretty annoyed, really, at the heights that they've been used to for the last sort of, you know, two and a half decades. To spend a billion and a half to get worse is quite something. So I think, yeah, in terms of the protests, I mean, it's interesting to see that. I think there's not quite a clear message as to exactly what they're protesting about and what they want, which is probably something they need to maybe figure out. But it's clear that they're. Yeah, they're absolutely not happy. And, yeah, I wouldn't be either.
- [28:52]
Noah Chestnut
Let's move on to Newcastle. They're in sixth and Chris Woff was at Anfield watching to see Liverpool extend their gap at the top of the Premier League to 13 points. They won two nil. Let's have a listen.
- [29:06]
Chris Woff
Well, Newcastle have done what they always do when they go to Anfield and they've come here and They've lost the 29th successive visits Anfield in the Premier League stretching back till 1984 when Newcastle had failed to leave here with a win. In terms of where this leaves Newcastle's Champions League hopes, well, they are six in the table, which is probably about right for now. But you do fear for them over the course of the next few weeks given that the focus will be on the Carabao Cup Final. The Champions League is massive for keeping the the likes of Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonal, Newcastle star players, Newcastle, Ireland. They can keep them regardless, but they need the riches of Champions League as well to be able to to grow the revenues that that brings. And so that is very much the goal. Certainly European football is a minimum. They are still in that picture. They haven't got hammered. But the goal difference is struggling a little bit relative to some of the rivals. So they do need to make sure they bounce back in the next Premier League game. Away in West Ham before the Carabao Cup Final.
- [30:02]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah, Chris explains it well there, doesn't he, Nick? There's a lot on the line. There's the distraction of the Carabao cup, but also the opportunity that that brings. But they really can't afford to miss out on the Champions League because that almost, and we've spoken about it before on the show, it brings almost an automatic departure of Alexander Isak. If they don't make the Champions League and they can't afford to lose him, they can't afford to lose the money. If we go back to the title of this podcast, they probably need the Champions League most, don't they?
- [30:37]
Tim Spears
Probably, yeah. I mean they're just, I mean they're just such a weird team. Like the game against Forest last weekend is just as I think Chris wrote, sort of encapsulated it perfectly brilliant for most of the first half and then just absolutely awful in the second half and were, I mean, a little bit in the end, a little bit lucky to get to come away with a win. On the face of it, their fixture list looks pretty friendly. They've got West Ham next and then, well, FA cup this weekend, then West Ham in the League, then they've got the League Cup Final and then they've got Brentford, Leicester, Manchester United, Crystal palace, which is a sort of, you would think, is a fairly, you know, relatively gentle run and you'd expect them to win most of those games, but then you kind of. Then you just sort of think about how they've actually been playing in, in recent weeks and you. Again, a team that we were talking about consistency earlier on. I see a team that you don't really. You just don't trust to be consistent enough. I'm kind of talking myself into ultimately predicting that nobody is going to finish in the. In the. In the top five, which is, you know, not possible. But, but you couldn't sort of. Well, I certainly couldn't convincingly pin your hopes on any one of them, really.
- [32:06]
Noah Chestnut
Well, having said that, we'll deal with the outsiders next. So we've dealt with the top six of the Premier League and their hopes of getting into Europe. What about the outside shots? We've got Bournemouth in seventh, a point back from Newcastle, the same as Brighton in eighth. Fulham are down in ninth. Aston Villa on tenth on the same number of points. They're just two points behind Newcastle. So do we see one of those sides breaking into the top six at the moment? Tim, it looks as if Brighton are in good nick. They've sort of got themselves back on track and they've got recent muscle memory of getting into Europe, haven't they?
- [32:59]
Advertiser
Muscle memory? That's your phrase.
- [33:01]
Noah Chestnut
I'm sorry, I've used it twice. I do apologize. It's just muscle memory. It's just coming back.
- [33:05]
Advertiser
Hey, lovely stuff. Yeah, yeah, Brighton and they're sort of. They're sort of dark horses really. Everybody's, I guess, focused on, you know, the exciting, you know, new boys in Forest and Bournemouth in terms of like chasing for European football and Brighton are a bit sort of old hat. But yeah, they're, they're, they're the team in, in current good form, especially with Bournemouth, you know, losing two in a row. And it's really interesting with Brighton in terms of them, you know, changing their style under Herzler and the possession numbers, I know you've been seeing this, Adam, are fascinating, to be honest. There's only two games since Christmas when they've had more than 60% possession, which is of course very much, you know, what we've come to expect from Brighton in the last few years, that they have more of the ball than their opponents. But yeah, the two times they've had 60% possession or more since Christmas are the only two games they've lost. So they lost one at home to Everton when they're pretty dreadful performance. And then, you know, the seven nil at Forest where they had Far more on the ball that day, but still got spanked 7 nil. Otherwise, you know, it's less of the ball. That works for Brighton now. I mean, the prospects of them having 31% possession v Chelsea at home and still winning would be pretty alien, you know, even. Even just sort of six months ago. So full credit to Herzler for making them, I guess, more adaptable. I think that's one thing, one sort of criticism you could perhaps aim at Brighton in recent seasons that they were a little bit predictable. And yeah, with Welbeck back and scoring as well last week, it's. They're in a good place right now.
- [34:29]
Noah Chestnut
In terms of Bournemouth. Obviously they're focusing on advancing past Wolves in the. The FA cup this weekend and they've had a little bit of a wobble, Nick, but they've still exceeded expectations and they've got a few more players coming back from injury as well, which will help them. They're still in the mix, aren't they? Because they're a sort of side that you'd expect to have a wobble because you wouldn't be expected to be up there and actually in with a chance.
- [34:56]
Tim Spears
Yeah. Of these clubs, again, we keep going back to consistency. No one seems to be very consistent this season. But of all the clubs kind of hovering around just beneath the Champions League place that we're talking about, they're the ones that seem to have the kind of highest ceiling. They're the ones that like, you know, a couple of their performances a few months ago, I mean beating Forest 5, 0, but particularly beating Newcastle away, they were incredible in that game and as you say, doing so without a bunch of players who were out with injury. So on the basis that nobody's really that consistent, you then kind of go to who has the kind of most. The most potential to put in some brilliant performances. And of those, I still think it's Bournemouth, even though the players are coming back, but they're still having to mix and match a little bit and they're still maybe not got their strongest team out there, but they're the ones that I would think have the potential to, as I was talking about earlier, maybe put in that kind of good run of four or five games. That might just be enough at some point.
- [36:07]
Noah Chestnut
What about Fulham, Tim? Obviously they got past sort of weak opposition in midweek and they'll, you know, they've shown that they can be quite some team this season.
- [36:20]
Advertiser
Is that a little joke, was it?
- [36:22]
Noah Chestnut
Little joke, little joke. Who did they play midweek?
- [36:26]
Advertiser
You know, they Played midweek.
- [36:29]
Noah Chestnut
Well, look, my opportunity every week to just. Just sort of throw little jabs. Little jabs at you about Wolves. Just. Why not? Why not?
- [36:40]
Advertiser
Well, because, you know, I can't come back here because this is a. This is a Premier League podcast. You know, we don't. We don't talk about the championship. So we can't talk about your team. Exactly. We won't talk about. We won't talk about them next season either. Let's. Let's be honest. But that's fine. So, yeah. What's the question?
- [36:53]
Noah Chestnut
Fulham. It's actually a question mark.
- [36:55]
Advertiser
Fulham, question mark.
- [36:56]
Noah Chestnut
But we've got bogged down in Wolves, unfortunately.
- [36:59]
Advertiser
Question mark. Yeah, I mean, well, I don't think. I don't think they've got it within their capabilities to finish top five. I think they are where they are, really. I think they're sort of an eighth, ninth sort of team. I mean, they haven't won more than two in a row a season. They haven't been one of those sort of really big teams all season. And yeah, they're lovely to watch. They're pretty consistent in terms of who they can beat and who they can't be. And I think 8th or 9th is where they're going to finish. But that is a huge achievement for sort of where they've come from in the last few years. And they definitely go under the radar for too much. And Marcus Silver is under the radar far too much for putting together the team that he has and the way that they play. You know, if I was going to. If I was going to watch a team sort of week in, week out or report on a team week in, week out, you know, Fulham. Fulham will be right up there. I think it's a really nice, friendly club. Good football. Finish eighth, great.
- [37:48]
Noah Chestnut
And just one other question, to be fair to you on Wolves. Who do you think Matthias Kunya will be playing for next season?
- [37:56]
Advertiser
You're a moron.
- [37:58]
Noah Chestnut
I'm not a moron. Because it's a big. It's a big. It's a big transfer. And he. He played particularly well at Liverpool. Scored a great goal. He spoke very warmly about Liverpool, didn't he?
- [38:11]
Advertiser
I couldn't care less. Do you know what? This is? A podcast about which teams are going to qualify for Europe this season. There's nothing about Wolves or Cunha on the script. You've just. You've just thrown that in to annoy me. And you know what? It's worked so well done.
- [38:22]
Noah Chestnut
No worries. No worries. I'm certainly Looking forward to seeing where Matthias Kuna plays next season.
- [38:27]
Tim Spears
Adam's got his little nibble. Let's stop recording now.
- [38:40]
Noah Chestnut
Okay, let's hear now from the Athletics Aston Villa writer Jacob Tanswell. After watching Unai Emery's side thoroughly beaten at Selhurst park midweek, leaving them down in 10th.
- [38:51]
Jacob Tanswell
So it's just finished. Crystal palace for Aston Villa won and Villa for a key point of the season, put in their worst performance of the season. In the league especially. There can be no excuses for how the second half unfolded really. They haven't got the attacking prowess like they did last year. They underperformed their XG by nine or 10 goals now and they keep conceding. So three clean sheets in 28 games and that leaves Villa in a real uphill struggle to. To get a Champions League place. They can't string back to back wins there together. They can't build on the Chelsea victory. And securing Champions League football is so key for a team that wants to keep progressing. But it's so tight with the ways to turnover revenue standing at 96% and with Rashford with ascension and these caliber of players, you need to attract them through Champions League football, but at the same time you need to pay their wages through revenue gains through Champions League football.
- [39:45]
Noah Chestnut
It's an interesting one, isn't it, Nick? Obviously it feels like they're suffering the same sort of syndrome as Newcastle, having to sort of straddle Premier League competition for the Champions League places and playing in the Champions League. They're Obviously down in 10th, Aston Villa now, but they've got a decent draw in the Champions League and it feels as if they can really focus on that. And there's. I don't know. With a fair win, you never know where they might get to.
- [40:16]
Tim Spears
Is this the hot take of the podcast? Is this Aston Villa Champions League winners that you're.
- [40:20]
Noah Chestnut
Well, Unai Emery, he does love a European trophy, doesn't he?
- [40:24]
Tim Spears
Does love a European trophy. That's quite right.
- [40:26]
Advertiser
Yeah.
- [40:26]
Tim Spears
I just that they're just too. The central midfield seems okay and the goalkeeper is very good, but the central defenders keep getting injured. The fullbacks can be kind of unconvincing at some points. It's slightly weird that they kind of. In the January they kind of sold a center forward and bought into wide forwards basically to replace him. And Emery's doesn't always. Is always a huge fan of sort of proper number nines, which is possibly why Duran didn't get more of a. More of a consistent chance. But yeah, they as Jacob Said they're defensively just particularly unconvincing and not quite good enough in attack to kind of make up for that on a consistent basis. Anyway, still, in the FA cup, you'd expect them to obviously expect them to beat Cardiff. You probably expect them to be Bruges in the Champions League, which, you know, unless they do conform to your outlandish prediction of winning the Champions League, which I think you definitely said 100% then that might. I don't know whether it's. It's stupid to say, oh, the Champions League is a distraction from the. The nuts and bolts of the Premier League, but it. You wouldn't. It's certainly probably not going to help their. Their league form, particularly. They've got a. They've got some tough games coming up as well in the. They all tough. Sort of fix your list towards the end. Coming towards the end of the season. Playing Brighton in a few. A few weeks, Forest and then Man City, they've got to come as well. So, yeah, it's. It's a tricky one in the league for them.
- [42:03]
Noah Chestnut
Yeah, they can't afford for their as. As Jacob said, Tim, they can't afford for their European well to run dry, can they, having. Having spent a lot of money.
- [42:14]
Advertiser
Yeah, yeah, it's. It's, you know, no Champions League is problematic financially, you know, further down the road. Obviously, they'll be making a lot of money from this season's competition, but yeah, it's. It's. It's an issue and, you know, in terms of attracting players, you know, if they're not in Europe next season, then. Then they're going to struggle in the summer. And, yeah, I was surprised, really surprised with the result in midweek. You know, I think. I think they did good business in January and brought in additions where they needed to. But goals are a problem. Goals have been a problem for them all season. They scored 76 last year. They're only on 40 this year with 10 games left. You know, they lost. They lost a lot of goals from last season's team. D'Arby, Douglas, Luiz, both left. I think they got 10 apiece. Leon Bailey scored a lot last season. He got 10 or nine and he's got one this season. John McGinn hasn't scored all season, so it's sort of up to others to step up and nobody really has. Obviously. Rashford's been brought in at a huge expense in terms of his wages to try and rectify that. He hasn't scored yet, albeit his performances have been promising and they lost, you know, they lost Duran in January. There's a lot of goals been lost out of the team and not being replaced and doesn't look like there's a. There's a quick fix there, really. So, yeah, Champions League, great. But, yeah, I don't see them getting anywhere near top five in the. In the league.
- [43:27]
Noah Chestnut
Now, just a final question, gents, and I know this is difficult to sum up because we've got, you know, three European competitions and there's a lot of permutations at play here. But to bring it back to the original question, who needs European football the most of whatever form it is? Nick, who would you say is the team that you think needs it the most? If they miss out, they will really be in crisis.
- [43:52]
Tim Spears
I mean, possibly Manchester United, which is pretty bad news for them. Perhaps more specifically the many workers that are going to be losing their jobs. But of the. I think we mentioned this earlier, of the teams that kind of have a realistic prospect of qualifying for the Champions League, probably Newcastle need it the most for teams like Forest and Bournemouth and, you know, maybe Fulham with Brighton with outside chances that it's kind of very much a bonus being in the Champions League. But it does feel like Newcastle for the reasons we discussed earlier on are the ones that kind of need it the most.
- [44:29]
Noah Chestnut
Tim.
- [44:30]
Advertiser
I'd say Forest and Bournemouth, really, because, you know, these chances don't come around too often. I can tell you from personal experience, you know, it might not happen again, ever. And you look at United and Spurs will surely not be any worse next season. And Villa and Newcastle and whoever else have the capability to climb higher in the league. But Forest, you know, this might be their only shot certainly at the Champions League. Nick said they've not been in Europe since, what, mid-90s? Bournemouth have never been in Europe. So, yeah, they've got to take this chance because it might not come around again.
- [45:03]
Noah Chestnut
I wholeheartedly agree, Tim, and what a lovely message because the only time Watford have ever been in Europe was back in the 80s. Once.
- [45:12]
Advertiser
Once in Europe, what happened?
- [45:16]
Noah Chestnut
They. They got through a couple of rounds. They didn't do much, but they finished second in the.
- [45:22]
Advertiser
Sounds memorable.
- [45:23]
Noah Chestnut
Top division. But I didn't go. I wasn't. I wasn't enough to be going on a European adventure. So amazing. It would be amazing for Bournemouth or for, obviously, Nottingham Forest. It's been a while. Nick would love to be going to games himself. Anyway, we've run out of time. Thank you very much to Tim. You can say goodbye, Tim, if you want.
- [45:46]
Advertiser
Oh, right. Sorry, we don't normally do that. Cool. Cheers.
- [45:50]
Noah Chestnut
Nick, can you say goodbye like a normal human being?
- [45:53]
Tim Spears
Yeah. Goodbye, Adam. Goodbye, Tim. Thank you very much.
- [45:56]
Noah Chestnut
Enjoy your footballing weekend, everyone. The Athletic FC will be back on Monday. Take care till then.
- [46:05]
Advertiser
You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Guy Clark, Mike Stavroo and Jay Beal. The executive director producer was Aidee Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts for free, search for the Athletic on Apple, Spotify and all the usual places. The Athletic FC podcast is an athletic media company production.
- [46:28]
Tim Spears
The Athletic FC Podcast Network.