Who needs European football the most?

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast – Episode Summary: "Who Needs European Football the Most?"
Release Date: February 28, 2025

Host and Contributors:

• Adam Leventhal – Host
• Tim Spears – Athletic Football Writer
• Nick Miller – Athletic Football Writer
• Guest: Jacob Tanswell – Aston Villa Writer

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Introduction

In this episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, host Adam Leventhal delves into the intense race among Premier League teams vying for European football qualification. Joined by Athletic’s esteemed football writers Tim Spears and Nick Miller, the discussion centers on the current standings, team performances, and the critical need for European competition for various clubs.

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Nottingham Forest: A Dream of European Glory

Current Status:
Nottingham Forest finds themselves in an exhilarating position, recently drawing 0-0 against Arsenal at the City Ground, reigniting their aspirations for a Champions League spot.

Key Insights:

• Tim Spears highlights Forest’s defensive solidity and home form as pivotal factors:
  “Forest were defensively strong, they were disciplined, they were hard to break down, and they got a result that was a positive one” (05:18).

• Despite having 48 points, significantly below the 64-point average needed for a typical fifth-place finish, Forest remains optimistic due to favorable remaining fixtures. With six out of their last eleven games at home, Spears emphasizes their potential to accumulate the necessary points:
  “They need another 16 points from the remaining 11 games... Forest have got a real opportunity” (05:30).

Nick Miller's Prediction:
Miller foresees Forest securing fifth place:
“I think Forest will finish fifth” (11:48).

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Arsenal: Defensive Prowess but Offensive Struggles

Current Status:
Arsenal sits comfortably in second place, bolstered by their strong defense but hindered by a lack of goals this season.

Key Insights:

• Tim Spears commends Arsenal’s defensive record but notes the team's goal-scoring woes:
  “They’ve still got the best defense in the league, which I think should see them through in terms of finishing second” (09:51).

• The return of key players like Saka and Martinelli is expected to enhance Arsenal’s attacking capabilities, potentially mitigating their offensive deficiencies.

Discussion:
The panel debates whether Arsenal will be dragged into a top-four battle or comfortably secure their second-place position. The consensus leans towards Arsenal remaining steady, primarily due to their defensive strengths and upcoming player returns.

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Manchester City: Financial Imperatives for Champions League Qualification

Current Status:
Manchester City, despite inconsistencies, remains a formidable force, eyeing Champions League qualification to secure substantial financial gains.

Key Insights:

• Adam Leventhal discusses the financial ramifications of missing out on the Champions League, emphasizing the vast difference in prize money between the Champions League (£2 billion global pot) and the Europa League (£465 million):
  “The big cash loss would be not qualifying for the Champions League at all” (14:28).

• Tim Spears expresses skepticism about City's ability to regain their former dominance this season but remains confident in their eventual top-five finish:
  “I’d be really surprised if they didn’t finish top five” (15:37).

Discussion:
The conversation touches on City's current struggles, including player injuries and tactical inconsistencies, yet recognizes their capacity to secure a Champions League spot due to their squad depth and financial muscle.

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Tottenham Hotspur: Europa League Ambitions Amidst Internal Struggles

Current Status:
Tottenham Hotspur occupies a precarious position, currently in 13th place with slim chances for European qualification via the league but still eyeing the Europa League.

Key Insights:

• Tim Spears outlines Tottenham’s potential pathways in the Europa League, noting favorable matchups in the bottom half of the draw:
  “Spurs potential route when they got Ajax or Eintracht Frankfurt...” (18:37).

• The departure of key players like Son and Kulasevski raises concerns about Spurs’ consistency and squad depth.

Discussion:
The panel debates Tottenham’s viability in the Europa League, acknowledging the managerial pressures and the need for squad stability to make a deep run in the competition.

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Manchester United: Redundancies and European Football Necessity

Current Status:
Manchester United faces internal turmoil with redundancies in backroom staff under the new management of Sir Jim Radcliffe, heightening the urgency to secure European qualification.

Key Insights:

• Adam Leventhal highlights the precarious situation at Old Trafford, emphasizing the necessity of European football for financial stability and future success:
  “It makes it even more important that they get European football once again...” (20:54).

• Adam Leventhal critiques United’s on-pitch performances, citing inconsiderate decisions and a lack of trust in their Europa League prospects:
  “I wouldn’t really trust them to win the Europa League...” (22:06).

Discussion:
The discussion underscores Manchester United’s struggles both on and off the pitch, questioning their prospects for European qualification given their current form and internal challenges.

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Chelsea: Ownership Issues and Uncertain European Prospects

Current Status:
Chelsea, currently in fifth place, has recently secured a comfortable win against Southampton, providing a temporary boost in their quest for Champions League qualification amidst ongoing ownership protests.

Key Insights:

• Tim Spears expresses doubts about Chelsea’s consistency and tactical execution under current management:
  “It does seem like there's an ultimate sort of must win game... [but] you’re not convinced by them at all at the moment” (27:48).

• Adam Leventhal discusses the fan protests against the current ownership, yearning for the return of Roman Abramovich and former manager Jose Mourinho:
  “...there was protests against the current ownership. They were calling for Roman Abramovich to come back” (31:29).

Discussion:
The panel touches on Chelsea’s internal discontent, ownership instability, and the team’s fluctuating performances, casting uncertainty over their ability to secure a top-four finish necessary for Champions League qualification.

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Newcastle United: A Critical Need for Champions League Revenue

Current Status:
Newcastle United, positioned sixth in the table, faces significant financial pressure to qualify for the Champions League to sustain their ambitious project and retain key players like Alexander Isak.

Key Insights:

• Tim Spears emphasizes Newcastle’s dependence on Champions League qualification for financial stability and player retention:
  “They probably need the Champions League most” (35:24).

• Adam Leventhal underscores the stakes, noting Newcastle’s precarious balance between domestic performance and European ambitions:
  “They are still in that picture” (34:36).

Discussion:
The conversation highlights Newcastle’s strategic need for Champions League qualification to support their financial investments and ensure the retention of marquee players, positioning them as one of the teams that need European football the most.

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Other Contenders: Bournemouth, Brighton, and Fulham

**Bournemouth:
**Positioned seventh, Bournemouth has exceeded expectations and remains in the mix for European qualification, bolstered by recent player recoveries and a few pivotal victories.

• Adam Leventhal praises Bournemouth’s potential to secure a European spot with continued consistency and player fitness improvements.

**Brighton:
**Located eighth, Brighton has demonstrated resilience and adaptability under manager Herzler, showing significant improvements in their possession play and tactical flexibility.

• Tim Spears commends Brighton’s recent form and tactical evolution, positioning them as dark horses with the capability to secure a European berth:
  “Full credit to Herzler for making them more adaptable” (38:44).

**Fulham:
**Fulham sits ninth and, under the guidance of Marcus Silva, has emerged as a competent and consistent side.

• Tim Spears lauds Fulham’s under-the-radar performance and consistent results, projecting a potential eighth-place finish:
  “They definitely go under the radar far too much” (42:36).

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Aston Villa: Struggling for Consistency and European Ambitions

Current Status:
Aston Villa, currently tenth, has recently endured a significant defeat against Crystal Palace, raising concerns about their ability to secure a Champions League spot.

Key Insights:

• Jacob Tanswell critiques Villa’s attacking shortcomings and defensive vulnerabilities, highlighting their struggle to maintain consistency:
  “They’ve got some tough games coming up... it’s a tricky one in the league for them” (44:23).

• Tim Spears discusses Villa’s financial dependence on European qualification to sustain their wage structure and team progression:
  “They can't afford for their European run to dry” (47:57).

Discussion:
The panel emphasizes Aston Villa’s urgent need for European qualification to support their financial commitments and player acquisitions, questioning their prospects given current form and tactical issues.

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Conclusion: Determining Who Needs European Football the Most

Final Insights:

• Adam Leventhal and Tim Spears identify Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United as the teams that stand to benefit the most from European qualification due to their unique financial pressures and strategic imperatives:
  “For teams like Forest and Bournemouth... it's kind of very much a bonus being in the Champions League” (50:13).
  “These chances don’t come around too often... Forest, you know, this might be their only shot...” (50:46).

Closing Remarks:
The episode concludes with the acknowledgment that while several teams are in the race for European spots, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United embody the most critical need for European football to sustain their ambitions and financial health.

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Notable Quotes:

• “Finding the right tool to help simplify that to do list and streamline things and get things done can be a game changer for millions of businesses.” – Shopify Advertisement (00:00)
  (Note: Advertisements are typically excluded from summaries. Included here for reference.)

• “We think Forest have got a real opportunity.” – Tim Spears (05:30)

• “I think Chelsea, I think I'm not convinced by them at all at the moment.” – Tim Spears (27:48)

• “They probably need the Champions League most.” – Adam Leventhal (50:13)

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Conclusion:

This episode of The Athletic FC Podcast provides an in-depth analysis of the Premier League’s race for European football, highlighting the struggles and aspirations of key teams. Through expert insights and detailed discussions, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the complexities and stakes involved in securing European competition.

Transcript

[Marc Maron]

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[Nick Miller]

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[Tim Spears]

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[Marc Maron]

Hey, folks, it's Marc Maron from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now and I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me because she's.

[Tim Spears]

Always going like, dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah, I go, sorry, I lost my temper.

[Marc Maron]

I go, I still love you.

[Tim Spears]

You know, Daddy has issues.

[Nick Miller]

Are you afraid of it?

[Tim Spears]

Of death?

[Marc Maron]

Well, I don't know.

[Tim Spears]

I think about it all the time.

[Marc Maron]

How are we here already? Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF.

[Tim Spears]

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[Adam Leventhal]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network.

[Marc Maron]

Hi there, it's Adam Leventhal. Welcome to the Athletic fc. This week we're focusing on the Premier League teams chasing European football. And joining me today are the Athletics football writers Tim Spears and Nick Miller. One who is hoping for European football and the other Tim. Well, wolves aren't getting into Europe anytime soon, are they?

[Tim Spears]

Been there, mate. Enjoyed it. Next.

[Marc Maron]

Yeah, just had that little taste, what, a few years ago and you've had enough?

[Tim Spears]

Sounds great. Yeah, yeah, let someone else have a go, you know.

[Marc Maron]

Yeah, cool. But Nick, you're dreaming of it, aren't you?

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah, very much so. Dreaming. I remember the last time for us were in Europe in 1996. And yeah, remember being livid that I wasn't allowed to go to any of the away games because they're on school nights. So I think I'm owed a nice juicy European run.

[Marc Maron]

Yeah, well, and it's looking a lot better. There was a little bit of a wobble, but the draw midweek against Arsenal Nil. Nil draw at the City ground in front of the Nottingham Forest Writer for the Athletic, Paul Taylor just settled a few nos. Let's just check in with him first.

[Tim Spears]

The Nil Nil draw with Arsenal at the City ground wasn't the win that Nottingham Forest craved, but it was a performance that kind of reinvigorated their hopes of of finishing in the Champions League places this season. Three consecutive away defeats had kind of hinted that there might be a bit.

[Adam Leventhal]

Of a blip on the horizon for.

[Tim Spears]

Nuno Espirito Santos side. But the performance against second placed Arsenal, kind of. Nuno put it this way, he Said that they'd found themselves again, they'd rediscovered what made them strong and that that was the perfect way of putting it. Forest were defensively strong, they were disciplined, they were hard to break down, and they got a result that was a positive one. At the end of the day, where does it leave their Champions League hopes? They've got 48 points. Over the last 20 years of Premier League football, the average points tally for getting fifth place in the Premier League has been 64. So there's a goal there for them. They need another 16 points from the remaining 11 games. Given that they've only lost twice at the City Ground this season, given that they've been in such good form on home turf, where the crowd play a real part in being the wind behind their backs, and that six of their remaining 11 games are at home, then you've got to think that Forest have got a real opportunity. Whatever happens. This has been a fairytale season for Nottingham Forest and hopefully they can secure the ending that everybody craves to that.

[Marc Maron]

And Nick, obviously, yeah, the dream is to get in the Champions League. Would you feel now that the Europa League would be a disappointment despite the fact that at the beginning of this season you were probably just thinking just, just finish 17th and then that's. We're quids in.

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, it is amazing how quickly expectations change. But yeah, I think. I mean, I would be delighted with Europa League, but now you've got a little bit of a taste of it and it's. There is the. The little extra thing of it almost certainly being place that will qualify for the Champions League this season. As absurd as it sounds, it will be a bit. A little bit of a letdown if Forest are merely in the Europa League next season. But yeah, I mean, as you say, I think at the start of the season there were a lot of predictions that Forest would get relegated, and they were. They were always a little bit pessimistic. But I think most, most Forest fans would have been delighted with sort of you know, 12th or something. And if, you know, if everything had broken right and we'd got a lot of luck and no inj and we might have gotten the top half. But it's an extraordinary situation to be in, to be, you know, now almost March and, you know, still in the Champions League places.

[Marc Maron]

Speaking of pessimism, I wanted to come to Tim. Well, why not read the comments? They love your pessimism in terms of the teams that are chasing down Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle down in sixth, four points Back. Chelsea in fifth, two points back and City just a point back. Do you see Nottingham Forest being able to hold their nerve and hold those teams off? They don't obviously need to hold all of them off. But those big guns are coming and they're not far away.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, I think it's, it's. It's going to be about consistency. I mean that's what, that's what got Forest to sort of second, third in the first place. They just had this like really weird wobble for the last few weeks. You know, I think they won was it six in a row around Christmas. And they look sort of almost nailed on for top five at that point. But that Southampton game they had when they were. They should have won it pretty comfortably and then they had a right wobble and only sort of scraped over the line at 3:2. So since then their consistency has just sort of evaporated really. I mean they had that, they had that five nil defeat at Bournemouth followed by seven nil win against Brighton, which is just. Which is just mad. Then you know, they go and lose to Newcastle 4, 3 in a thriller and follow that up with like a really sort of sturdy nil nil against Arsenal. So they're all over the place, to be honest. Which, which Nuno will hate. Look, I mean on their day, they're not the third best team in the country, I think. I'm sure Nick would say that as well. So there may be some leveling out to come over the next few weeks. But it's consistency that got them to third. They just need to find a little bit of that again. And it does feel and sort of backed up from what Tails was saying that the draw against Arsenal was really sort of important in midweek for laying down a marker from a defensive point of view because that's obviously their biggest strength.

[Marc Maron]

And just a word on Arsenal. They're obviously 13 points away from Liverpool now. I know they have a game in hand. They're six points above Nottingham Forest and then what, seven points ahead of the chasing pack, Manchester City, etc. Etc. Do you see them being dragged into a fight for the top four or do you think they're guaranteed second and that's where they're going to finish? Tim.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, I can see them sort of having a pretty boring into the season, to be honest. I don't see them getting dragged into it. You know, once sort of Saka and Martinelli are back, I think we'll see a pretty sizable improvement from them, you know, in the front line. It's really weird. Arsenal again, it's very underwhelming. You know, they had that 51 win over City and since then a really poor in the results and goal scoring has been an issue, you know, all season long. I think, I think I'm right in saying they've still got the best defense in the league, which you think should see them through in terms of finishing second over the next few weeks. But goals have been a problem. They scored 91 last season. They're only on 51 now with 11 games left, which is, you know, fewer than spurs who are down in 13th. But once Sakura Martinelli back, that adds a few goals to the team. There's no way they're going to get dragged into, into a top four fight.

[Adam Leventhal]

I suppose the only thing to to consider with that is how much they now think, well, the title's gone so let's focus everything on the Champions League. So and if they, if they do that then, you know, then you might see the league position slip a bit. But yeah, as, I mean as Tim said, but for both Forest and Arsenal purposes, it's sort of almost less that about their strengths and more that you don't or you don't necessarily trust the teams below them to be consistent enough to, to catch them in a hurry. I mean, man, City are probably the, the obvious one but you know, Newcastle Apache and Chelsea are 11 midweek but they are. They've been going through some rough form and haven't really got a striker to speak of. And yeah, the rest are, you know, Bournemouth obviously lost in midweek as well, so it's a little bit tricky to, to see which of those teams which will come onto which of those teams are going to be consistent enough to.

[Marc Maron]

Catch them before we get to City. Quick prediction from you, Nick, on where Forest will finish.

[Adam Leventhal]

I think Forest will finish fifth.

[Marc Maron]

Fifth last day. Oh, they've scored, they've done it.

[Adam Leventhal]

Whereas Chelsea, Chelsea at home on the last day which could, which at the start of the season felt like a kind of quite a. Well, at the start of the season, I think possibly Forest fans hoped that will be completely meaningless. Like, you know, nice day in the sunshine, but now looks like could be a Champions League shootout.

[Marc Maron]

Yeah. And Tim, you obviously think that Arsenal will finish second. Do you think Forest will make it into the top five?

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, I think, I think fourth probably. I mean, you know, you think City without Europe will, will probably overtake them. Although they play each other, don't they next weekend, which tells us a lot. But yeah, I think probably fourth.

[Marc Maron]

Okay, well, let's get on to the team that are currently in fourth and the Athletics. Manchester City writer Sam Lee was at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as Erling Haaland's goal was enough to see out that 10 victory for the visitors. Given City's position, they won't be too bothered about performances at this stage of the season now, where they're obviously just looking to finish in the top four, or top five, if fifth place does guarantee a route into the Champions League. It's the three points that matter. And obviously, on an evening when Forest and Arsenal drew with each other, it's a huge result for City, obviously. The thing is, with teams that are flawed, like City are going for the top four, there's always likely to be another stumble, another setback. The reason City are in this situation is because they've been so inconsistent. There are green shoots of recovery. You can see that in the way that they played in the first half. Some of the old frailties are still there. You can see that in the way they played in the second half. But they do seem to be improving the next league matches against Forest away. So that'll obviously be tough. That'll be another big test. We might know a bit more about their. Their fortunes after that. And obviously, qualifying for the Champions League is huge. Look, going out this year, it cost them what, you know, you could say 10 million pounds, 15 million pounds, depending on what you would have expected them to do, maybe more based on UEFA prize money. But the big. The big cash loss would be not qualifying for the Champions League at all. You get about the global pot for everybody for the champions league is 2 billion pounds. For the Europa League, the global pot for Everybody is about 465 million. 460 million. So it's nothing like the same. So, yeah, financially, you need to be in the Champions League. And, yeah, that's why this was a big win for City. But of course, they'll need to do more. Yeah. And do you expect them to, just via their muscle memory of being up the top, they'll just be able to settle into that final fling and secure that Champions League spot?

[Tim Spears]

Tim, I'm not sure their muscle memory is going to come back this season. I mean, Pep's sort of suggested they haven't got it within their capabilities really, for it to return this season. And, you know, okay, they're winning midweek, but still miles off it when it comes to their previous levels. You know, we saw them in their defeats in February, comfortable defeats to Liverpool, Real Madrid and Arsenal, you know, didn't really lay a glove on any of them. Yeah, again, again, like Forest and Arsenal, no sort of consistency for City at the moment. But you think without Europe, they, they will have enough for top five. I'd be amazed if they didn't finish in the, in the top five. You know, especially with obviously Harland back and scoring in midweek, but with them improving the spine in January, I think that's with Mahmouche and Nico Gonzalez and Kusanap, I think. I think that's enough to, to get them over the line against top level opponents. They look so short, but they do be average and poor teams still very consistently, you know, until Rodri comes back and they sort out the rest of that midfield and how they progress into attack, they're not going to be the same team again. But yeah, I'd be really surprised if they didn't finish top five.

[Marc Maron]

Are you, are you still enjoying that? The subplot of, of City struggling this season? Nick, just, just simply not. Not because it's an anti City thing, but just as a, as an, an example that you can be so dominant and things, if they're not quite right, can go off and go off quite badly.

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah, it's kind of the sort of empire's crumbling very rapidly kind of thing, which is, yeah, as you say, it's a point of difference, isn't it? I mean, in previous years we have sort of got slightly. Got sucked into this idea and I'm as guilty of it as anyone of this idea that City were completely inevitable and they were going to stroll the League every year, but they only actually won it by, I think it was two points last season. A few seasons ago they won it on the last day. Again, a couple of seasons ago they won it by five points, but that was only because Arsenal kind of ran out of steam in the last couple of games. So, I mean, if you speak to City fans that they, some or some City fans anyway, they will tell you that the signs of this were kind of there last season, that they sort of not quite struggled over the line, but they weren't the sort of dominant team that they had been in the past and everyone said they were. And then obviously Rodri's injury caused everything to collapse for a few months. And yeah, they're looking better now, nowhere near what they could be. They're a kind of funny team in that they've got all that they've now got all these kind of attacking options, but it seems like Guardia is still kind of figuring out how to slot them all in. Like, Savinho is clearly much better on the left, but Docu's been really good there. Got Grealish there as well. Whereas Marmouche seems to be the kind of the new Julian Alvarez. But then you've got to sort of hopefully fit Phil Foden in there somewhere. And then, I don't know, watching Kevin de Bruyne is a bit of a struggle at the moment. It's like this, you know, this. If you wanted to kind of go a little bit too grand about it, he's. It could be the symbol of City kind of collapsing over this year that he, you know, this once great player is now looks quite like a slightly sad shadow of his former self. So, yeah, it has been certainly kind of more entertaining for a neutral to not have City at the top all the time, and then it's just been replaced by this other ludicrously consistent team who are miles clear of everyone else, but at least it's a different one.

[Marc Maron]

Well, speaking of empires that are, well, not necessarily crumbling, but I don't know, maybe they're having a survey done at the moment. Spurs down in 13th, United in 14th. Both sides on 33 points, 13 points off the top five. So little chance for either of those two qualifying for the Champions League via the league, but they could get there still by winning the Europa League. Tim, from your point of view, do you see this spurs side being capable of winning the Europa League?

[Tim Spears]

Well, their potential routes of the finals, not too bad. I think the stronger half of the draw is the bottom half, where you've got Roma, sort of one of the former teams in Europe, or Athletic Bilbao, I think, a fourth in La Liga, and they would potentially host the final if they get there. So United's half of the draw is tougher. So I think spurs potential route when they got Az, obviously in the next round, then it's Ajax or Eintracht Frankfurt and then probably Lazio in the semis. So, you know, potentially a route to the final there. But this is. This is spurs, so. So, you know, we can't make any predictions on that front, but they do look a bit stronger recently. They obviously had that run of three in a row which sort of settled things down. I was kind of kind of pleased for Poster Cogner, really. You know, it. Although he was being rude and. And a real sort of, you know, ass to everybody, he looks like he was carrying the whole world on his back. I was. I definitely got to the point where I was feeling sorry for him and something needed to happen. Either he needed to be put out of his misery or we got, you know, temporarily. This had this happy ending where he sort of won a few matches and relieved the pressure. So, yeah, spurs team, I know they lost him midweek, but I'm not, I wouldn't read too much into that. They've obviously got some, some players coming back, but this is now the point where the ones that have been flogged for the last two months probably need a bit of a break, which is why he dropped Son and Kulasevski midweek. So I think you're still going to get sort of an unusual chopping and changing of the team for a while. I mean, the front three against City midweek, Johnson, Tell and Odebear, sort of very, sort of unfamiliar. They've still got Archie Gray, a teenager at center back. If they had a. This is a huge. If, if they had a fully fit squad, which I don't expect to happen because, you know, the muscle injuries that they keep, keep picking up with the style of football and the training that they're doing. But if they have, you know, mostly a fully fit squad, if they were to finish 11th in the league and win the Europa League, which by the way, would overshadow absolutely everything they've done all season, then obviously it would be an incredibly successful season and complete justification for Postecoglo, after all that, for what he's been doing. So it is there for them. You know, like I said, there's a route to the final that's there for them and that should be huge motivation and getting players back at just the right time.

[Marc Maron]

Let's talk about Manchester United, Nick. Obviously, you know, the dominant headline this week has been about more redundancies for, you know, backroom staff at Old Trafford, the people working in offices and things like that, the cost cutting of the club. And it does still feel odd to be talking about this huge giant, but watching the pennies so much under the new running of Sir Jim Radcliffe, etc. Etc. But it makes it even more important that they, that they get European football once again via the league, be that the Europa League, or they could even get the Champions League via winning the Europa League. But from what you're seeing week in, week out, does that look likely? I suppose it's a similar sort of predicament than Tottenham, isn't it?

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah, I mean, I, I would say Tottenham are more likely than, than United just because United, even even winning the. In midweek, they still managed to kind of throw in a some kind of slapstick calamity. And there as well, you know, as. As absurd as it kind of sounds, Dorgu was seemed to play quite well other than, you know, giving away a goal and then getting sent off immediately. Other than that, did you Enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln kind of thing. But it was. They just seem to on the pitch and off the pitch really, they seem to have this kind of propensity to just step on rakes at every turn and smash themselves in the face. So I wouldn't really trust them to win the Europa League, particularly as Tim's pointed out, they are in the more difficult half of the draw and I wouldn't necessarily trust them to finish a huge amount higher in the Premier League either. So yeah, I mean, again, if we're talking about feeling sorry for managers, you feel sorry for Reuben Amarim sometimes when he's kind of stood there on the touchline. In my head, it's always raining when the camera cuts to him because he just looks the sort of epitome of the beleaguered man just kind of questioning his life choices. Why did I choose? Why did I take this job? And why did I take this job in the middle of the season? I had a lovely life in Lisbon and now it's all kind of. I'm cloaked in misery.

[Tim Spears]

That's just a leaky roof, isn't it? It's not raining.

[Adam Leventhal]

Well, there you go. There is pretty sorry sight a lot of the time and I wouldn't necessarily trust them to go much further in the Europa League or as I say, finish much higher in the Premier League.

[Marc Maron]

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[Nick Miller]

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[Marc Maron]

Well, let's move down to the team in fifth in the Premier League and that's Chelsea. And let's hear from our Chelsea writer Liam Toomey, who was speaking after that 40 stroll over Southampton. For the first time in two months, it feels like everything's coming up Chelsea in the Champions League qualification race. Away defeats for Aston Villa and Bournemouth created the opportunity for Maresca's team to start bringing the momentum back their way, and Southampton proved to be the perfect opponents at Stamford Bridge. They played down to their league position to such an extent that not even Cole Palmer being pretty far from his cold self was enough to prevent Chelsea from running out comfortable winners. This could prove to be an important palate cleanser for Chelsea after a dreadful 10 game run. Much tougher tests beyond that, but this result was enough to send them back up into fourth. And it's clear, given the stumbles of their rivals, that Chelsea's window to get back into Europe's elite club competition is still wide open. And, Tim, judging from what they've been doing, you obviously don't want to read too much into a victory over Southampton, because I reckon probably US three against Southampton at the moment could. Could probably. Probably do a job, judging by how they are they're faring. But do you see them sort of getting back on track, hook or by crook, and securing that Champions League place?

[Tim Spears]

I mean, you can't say that from what's just happened, you know, I mean, they had probably the lowest point of the season after those two awful defeats at Brighton, one in the cup and one in the league. You know, to beat Southampton at home just means absolutely nothing. It's sort of, you know, it's like beating Ireland in. In test cricket. If you don't do it, it's utterly embarrassing. It's just something you have to. You have to do. It's the ultimate sort of must, must win game, isn't it, this. This season? And. And it wasn't. And, you know, okay, they ran out comfortable winners, but it wasn't convincing. There was. There was nervousness, you know, in the. In the opening, sort of very stale sort of 20 minutes, and there's a real impatience about the style of football that they're continuing to try and play. I don't think Chelsea fans have taken to Maresca, you know, in that. In that regard. So, yeah, it does seem like, you know, reading some of Liam's stuff this week, it does seem like they've had a bit of a reset after those Brighton defeats. But the sort of tariff for the style of football that they're looking to play is so high, you know, if it clicks and it works, then, you know, they could have something pretty special with all the talent they've got. But when it doesn't work, which it happens most of the time at the moment, it's. I mean, Christ, it's a tough watch. They've obviously got this over reliance on Palmer, who's done nothing for some time, and Jackson, who's injured for some time. You know, they've got no other goal scorers. They've got a nervous defense. I think if any of the sort of, you know, if you're looking for a surprise team to not make the top five, I think. I think. I think Chelsea, I'm not convinced by them at all at the moment.

[Marc Maron]

And it's interesting, Nick, that they've been sort of living in this parallel European universe of playing in the. In the Conference League. This season. But obviously they would strive to get into the Champions League because they've got, you know, a rich history in that tournament recently. But do you think that they're. They're good enough and the squad is strong enough? Many people would say that Cole Palmer belongs in the Champions League, but do you think that. That it would be the best next step for them to. To be in the Champions League because it could strengthen them financially, it would attract bigger players, et cetera, et cetera. Not that they'd necessarily be in the market for established names because they go for young guns, don't they?

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah. I mean, it is kind of particularly weird that they. I think our colleague Adam Crafton said a few, maybe like a year or so ago that you kind of look at this Chelsea team squad and you still think, yeah, I could do with another 100 million quid spent on that. Because they just seem, you know, as you say, they haven't got a striker. The goalkeeping situation is weird. They seem to have like two number two goalkeepers who neither of whom you was particularly trust. Central defense is a bit iffy. So, you know, you think. You think that like, early on in the season, Cole Palmer being brilliant, piping over a few cracks, maybe. So, yeah, like, I think like, Tim, of the. Of the teams that are kind of there at the moment, they're the ones you sort of least trust to finish in the top four, top five. It feels like there are enough teams that are around that kind of area in this sort of top eight. I guess that is it a little bit like in the. What sometimes happens in the playoffs in the championship, where, like, a really good run towards the end of the season will kind of get you in. If there are teams like, you know, Newcastle or Bournemouth or maybe Villa, who are still sort of in touch with six, seven games to go, they go on a really good run towards the end and they could get in. Whereas Chelsea are flawed enough that you wouldn't necessarily trust them to do that.

[Marc Maron]

It was interesting, Tim, that I went along to Stamford Bridge prior to the game against Southampton just to do some recording for a documentary which I'll tell you about later on in the. And it was very odd to sort of taste the atmosphere because there was protests against the current ownership. They were calling for Roman Abramovich to come back. They want their Chelsea back. They were singing. There was even calls for Jose Mourinho to come back, which I found sort of confusing. What's your take on how the Chelsea fans think about their current ownership and why they would want Roman Abramovich and everything that that means back at the football club. Is it as confusing to you as it as you can clearly sound? It is to me.

[Tim Spears]

I mean, I guess. I guess from Chelsea fans point of view, they've spent. Was it a billion and a half to go backwards? I mean, you know, at the end of the Abramovich era, they won the Champions League and they've sort of got, you know, obviously they made some terrible. Some terrible decisions. You know, there was the Tuchel and then Potter debacle and Pochettino, whatever happened there. And now Moresco's no one's sort of convinced with. But it's. It's bigger than that. It's. It's like. It's selling players like Conor Gallagher who's like, you know, the lifeblood of the club, because they're more bothered about money, but yet they're wasting that money on very sort of stupid spending. You know, a real lack of identity at the club. No progress on. On sort of revamping or building a new stadium and an owner who looks pretty stupid sometimes with some of the things he says and some of the things he does and, you know, senior figures at the club not getting on very well. And yeah, it's a bit of a mess. You know, if I was a Chelsea fan, I'd be pretty annoyed really at the heights that they've been used to for the last sort of, you know, two and a half decades. To spend a billion and a half to get worse is quite something. So I think, yeah, in terms of the protest, I mean, it's interesting to see that. I think there's not quite a clear message as to exactly what they're protesting about and what they want, which is probably something they need to maybe figure out. But it's clear that they're. Yeah, they're absolutely not happy. And, yeah, I wouldn't be either.

[Marc Maron]

Let's move on to Newcastle. They're in sixth and Chris Woff was at Anfield watching to see Liverpool extend their gap at the top of the Premier League to 13 points. They won two nil. Let's have a listen. Well, Newcastle have done what they always do when they go to Anfield and they've come here and they've lost the 29th successive visits. Anfield in the Premier League stretching back till 1984 when Newcastle had failed to leave here with a win. In terms of where this leaves Newcastle's Champions League hopes, well, they are six in the table, which is probably about right for now. But you do fear for them over.

[Tim Spears]

The course of the next few weeks.

[Marc Maron]

Given that the focus will be on.

[Tim Spears]

The Cowboy Cup Final.

[Marc Maron]

The Champions League is massive for keeping the likes of Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon.

[Tim Spears]

Sandra Tony can Newcastle star players, Newcastle.

[Marc Maron]

Adamant, they can keep them regardless, but they need the riches of Champions League as well to be able to, to grow the revenues that that brings. And so that is very much the goal. Certainly European football is a minimum. They are still in that picture.

[Tim Spears]

They haven't got hammered, but the goal.

[Marc Maron]

Difference is struggling a little bit relative to some of the rivals. So they do need to make sure they bounce back in the next Premier League game. Away in West Ham before the Carabao Cup Final. Yeah, Chris explains it well there, doesn't he, Nick? There's a lot on the line. There's the distraction of the Carabao cup, but also the opportunity that that brings. But they really can't afford to miss out on the Champions League because that almost, and we've spoken about it before on the show, it brings almost an automatic departure of Alexander Isak. If they don't make the Champions League and they can't afford to lose him, they can't afford to lose the money. If we go back to the title of this podcast, they probably need the Champions League most, don't they?

[Adam Leventhal]

Probably, yeah. I mean, they're just, I mean, they're just such a weird team. Like the game against Forest last weekend is just as I think Chris wrote, sort of encapsulated it perfectly brilliant for most of the first half and then just absolutely awful in the second half and were, I mean, a little bit in the end, a little bit lucky to get to come away with a win. On the face of it, their fixture list looks pretty friendly. They've got West Ham next and then, well, FA cup this weekend, then West Ham in the league, then they've got the League Cup Final and then they've got Brentford, Leicester, Manchester United, Crystal palace, which is a sort of, you would think, is a fairly, you know, relatively gentle run and you'd expect them to win most of those games. But then you kind of, then you just sort of think about how they've actually been playing in, in recent weeks and you again, a team that we were talking about consistency earlier on. I see a team that you don't really, you just don't trust to be consistent enough. I'm kind of talking myself into ultimately predicting that nobody is going to finish in the, in the, in the top five, which is, you know, not possible. But you Couldn't, sort of. Well, I certainly couldn't convincingly pin your hopes on any one of them, really.

[Marc Maron]

Well, having said that, we'll deal with the outsiders next.

[Nick Miller]

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[Marc Maron]

So we've dealt with the top six of the Premier League and their hopes of getting into Europe. What about the. The outside shots? We've got Bournemouth in seventh, a point back from Newcastle, the same as Brighton in eighth. Fulham are down in ninth. Aston Villa on tenth on the same number of points. They're just two points behind Newcastle. So do we see one of those sides breaking into the top six at the moment? Tim, it looks as if Brighton are in good nick. They've sort of got themselves back on track and they've got recent muscle memory of getting into Europe, haven't they?

[Tim Spears]

Muscle memory? That's your phrase.

[Marc Maron]

I'm sorry, I've used it twice. I do apologize. It's just muscle memory. It's just coming back.

[Tim Spears]

Hey, lovely stuff. Yeah, yeah. Brighton and they're sort of, they're sort of dark horses, really. Everybody's, I guess, focused on, you know, the exciting, you know, new boys in Forest and Bournemouth in terms of like, chasing for European football and Brighton are a bit sort of old hat, but yeah, they're, they're the team in current good form, especially with Bournemouth, you know, losing two in a row. And it's really interesting with Brighton in terms of them, you know, changing their style under Herzler and the possession numbers, I know you've been seeing this, Adam, are fascinating, to be honest. There's only two games since Christmas when they've had more than 60 possession, which is, of course, is very much, you know, what We've come to expect from Brighton in the last few years that they have more of the ball than their opponents. But yeah, the two times they've had 60 possession or more since Christmas are the only two games they've lost. So they lost one nil at home, Everton when they. Pretty dreadful performance. And then you know the seven nil at Forest where they had far more on the ball that day but still got spanked 7 nil. Otherwise, you know, it's less of the ball. That works for Brighton now. I mean the prospect of them having 31% possession v Chelsea at home and still winning would be pretty alien, you know, even even just sort of six months ago. So full credit to Herzler for making them I guess more. More adaptable. I think that's one thing, one sort of criticism you could perhaps aim at Brighton in recent seasons that, that they were a little bit predictable and yeah, with Welbeck back and scoring as well last week, it's. They're in a good place right now.

[Marc Maron]

In terms of Bournemouth. Obviously they're focusing on advancing past Wolves in the. The FA cup this weekend and they've had a little bit of a wobble Nick but. But they've still exceeded expectations and they've got a few more players coming back from. From injury as well, which will help them.

[Tim Spears]

They.

[Marc Maron]

They've. They're still in the mix, aren't they? Because they're a sort of side that you'd expect to have a wobble because you wouldn't be expecting them to be up there and actually in with a chance.

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah. Of these clubs again, we'll keep going back to consistency. No one seems to be very consistent this season. But of all the clubs kind of hovering around just beneath the Champions League places that we're talking about, they're the ones that seem to have the kind of highest ceiling. They're the ones that like, you know, there's a couple of their performances a few months ago, I mean beating Forest 5 nil, but particularly beating Newcastle away. They were incredible in that game and as you say, doing so without a bunch of players who are out with injury. So on the basis that nobody's really that consistent, you then kind of go to who has the kind of most. The most potential to put in some brilliant performances. And of those I still think it's Bournemouth. Even though they are. The players are coming back but they're still having to mix and match up little bit. And they're still maybe not got their strongest team out there, but they're the ones that I would think have the potential to, as I was talking about earlier, maybe put in that kind of good run of four or five games. That might just be enough at some point.

[Marc Maron]

What about Fulham, Tim? Obviously they got past sort of weak opposition in midweek and they'll, you know, they've shown that they can be quite some team this season.

[Tim Spears]

Is that a little joke, was it?

[Marc Maron]

Little joke, little joke. Who did they play midweek?

[Tim Spears]

You know, they played midweek.

[Marc Maron]

Well, look, my opportunity every week to just sort of throw little jabs, little jabs at you about Wolves. Just. Why not? Why not?

[Tim Spears]

Well, because, you know, I can't come back here because this is a, this is a Premier League podcast. You know, we don't talk about the championship. So we can't talk about your team. Exactly. And talk about him next season either. Let's, let's be honest. But that's fine. So, yeah, what's the question?

[Marc Maron]

Fulham.

[Tim Spears]

It's actually a question mark.

[Marc Maron]

We've got bogged down in Wolves, unfortunately.

[Tim Spears]

Question mark? Yeah, I mean, well, I don't think, I don't think they've got it within their capabilities to finish top five. I think that. I think they are where they are, really. I think they're sort of an eighth night sort of team. I mean, they haven't won more than two in a row all season. They haven't beaten one of those sort of really big teams all season. And yeah, they're lovely to watch. They're pretty consistent in terms of who they can beat and who they can't be. And I think 8th or 9th is where they're going to finish. But that is a huge achievement for sort of where they've come from in the last few years. And they definitely go under the radar far too much. And Marcus Silva goes under the radar far too much for putting together the team that he has and the way that they play. You know, if I was going to, if I was going to watch a team sort of week in, week out or report on a team week in, week out, you know, Fulham will be right up there. I think it's a really nice, friendly club. Good football, finish eighth.

[Adam Leventhal]

Great.

[Marc Maron]

And just one other question, to be fair to you on Wolves. Who do you think Matthias Kuna will be playing for next season?

[Tim Spears]

You're a moron.

[Marc Maron]

I'm not a moron. Because it's a big transfer and he played particularly well at Liverpool. Scored a great goal. He spoke very warmly about Liverpool, didn't he?

[Tim Spears]

I couldn't care less. Do you Know what? This is a podcast about which teams are going to qualify for Europe this season. There's nothing about Wolves or Cunha on the script. You've just, you've just thrown that in to annoy me. And you know what? It's worked so well done.

[Marc Maron]

No worries, no worries. I'm certainly looking forward to seeing where Mat Kuna plays next season.

[Adam Leventhal]

Adam's got his little nibble. Let's stop recording there.

[Marc Maron]

Okay, let's hear now from the Athletics Aston Villa writer Jacob Tanswell. After watching Unai Emery's side thoroughly beaten at Selhurst park midweek, leaving them down in 10th. So it just finished Crystal palace for Aston Villa 1 and Villa, for a key point of the season, put in arguably their worst performance of the season. In the league especially. There can be no excuses for how the second half unfolded, really. They haven't got the attacking prowess like they did last year.

[Adam Leventhal]

They underperformed their XG by nine or.

[Tim Spears]

10 goals now and they keep conceding.

[Marc Maron]

That's three clean sheets in 28 games. And that leaves Villa in a real uphill struggle to, to get a Champions League place. They can't string back to back wins there together. They can't build on a Chelsea victory. And securing Champions League football is so key for a team that wants to keep progressing.

[Tim Spears]

But it's so tight. With the wage of turnover revenue standing.

[Marc Maron]

At 96% and with Rashford with a sensor and these caliber of players, you need to attract them through Champions League football, but at the same time you need to pay their wages through. Through revenue gains through Champions League football. It's an interesting one, isn't it, Nick? Obviously it feels like they're suffering the same sort of syndrome as Newcastle, having to sort of straddle Premier League competition for the Champions League places. And playing in the Champions League, they're Obviously down in 10th, Aston Villa now, but they've got a decent draw in the Champions League and it feels as if they can, they can really focus on that. And there's. I don't know. With a fair win, you never know where they might get to.

[Adam Leventhal]

Is this the hot take of the podcast? Is this Aston Villa Champions League winners that you're.

[Marc Maron]

Well, Unai Emery, he does love a European trophy, doesn't he?

[Adam Leventhal]

He does love a European trophy. That's quite right.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah.

[Adam Leventhal]

I just that they're just too. The central midfield seems okay and the goalkeeper's very good, but. But the central defenders keep getting injured. The fullbacks can be kind of unconvincing at Some points. It's slightly weird that they kind of. In the January, they kind of sold a center forward and bought in two wide forwards basically to replace him. Emery's doesn't always. Isn't always a huge fan of proper number nines, which is possibly why Duran didn't get more of a consistent chance. But yeah, as Jacob said there, they're defensively just particularly unconvincing and not quite good enough in attack to kind of make up for that on a consistent basis. Anyway, still, in the FA cup, you'd expect them to obviously expect them to beat Cardiff. You probably expect them to be Bruges in the Champions League, which, you know, unless they do conform to your outlandish prediction of winning the Champions League League, which I think he definitely said 100% then that might. I don't know whether it's. It's stupid to say, oh, the Champions League is a distraction from the, the nuts and bolts of the Premier League, but you wouldn't. It's certainly probably not going to help their, their league form particularly. They've got a. They've got some tough games coming up as well in the tough fixture list towards the end. Coming towards the end of the season. Playing Brighton in a few. A few weeks. Forest, Man City, they've got to come as well. So, yeah, it's, it's a tricky one in the league for them.

[Marc Maron]

Yeah, they can't afford for their as. As Jacob said, Tim, they can't afford for their, their European well to run dry, can they, having. Having spent a lot of money.

[Tim Spears]

Yeah, yeah, it's, it's, you know, no Champions League is. Is problematic financially. You know, further down the road. Obviously they'll be making a lot of money from this season's competition, but yeah, it's, it's. It's an issue. And you know, in terms of attracting players, you know, if they're not in Europe next season, then. Then they're going to struggle in the summer. And yeah, I was surprised, really surprised with their result in midweek. You know, I think. I think they did good business in January and brought in additions where they needed to. But goals are a problem. Goals have been a problem for them all season. They scored 76 last year. They're only on 40 this year with 10 games left. You know, they lost. They lost a lot of goals from last season's team. Diaby, Douglas, Louise, both left. I think they got 10 apiece. Leon Bailey scored a lot last season. He got 10 or nine and he. He's got one this season. John McGinn hasn't scored all season, so it's sort of up to others to. To step up and nobody really has. Obviously. Rashford's been brought in at a huge expense in terms of his wages to try and rectify that. He hasn't scored yet, albeit his performances have been promising. And they lost, you know, they lost Duran in January. There's a lot of goals been lost out of the team and not been replaced and doesn't look like there's a. There's a quick fix there, really. So, yeah, Champions League, great. But, yeah, I don't see them getting anywhere near top five in the. In the league.

[Marc Maron]

Now, just a final question, gents, and I know this is difficult to sum up because we've got, you know, three European competitions and there's a lot of permutations at play here. But to bring it back to the original question. Who needs European football the most of whatever form it is? Nick, who would you say is the team that you think needs it the most? If they miss out, they will really be in crisis.

[Adam Leventhal]

I mean, possibly Manchester United, which is pretty bad news for them. Perhaps more specifically the many workers that are going to be losing their jobs. But of the. I think we mentioned this earlier. Of the teams that kind of have a realistic prospect of qualifying for the Champions League, probably Newcastle need it the most. For teams like Forest and Bournemouth and maybe Fulham, Brighton with outside chances, it's kind of very much a bonus being in the Champions League. But if it does feel like Newcastle, for the reasons we discussed earlier on, are the ones that kind of need it the most most, Tim, I'd say.

[Tim Spears]

Forest and Bournemouth, really, because, you know, these chances don't come around too often. I can tell you from personal experience, you know, it might not happen again, ever. And you look at United and Spurs will surely not be any worse next season. And Villa and Newcastle and whoever else have the capability to climb higher in the league, but Forest, you know, this might be their only shot, certainly the Champions League. Nick said they've not been in Europe since, what, mid-90s? Bournemouth have never been in Europe. So, yeah, they've got to take this chance because it might not come around again.

[Marc Maron]

I wholeheartedly agree, Tim, and what a lovely message because the only time Watford have ever been in Europe was back in the 80s. Once.

[Tim Spears]

Once in Europe, what happened?

[Marc Maron]

They. They got through a couple of rounds. They didn't do much, but they'd finished second in the.

[Tim Spears]

Sounds memorable.

[Marc Maron]

Top division. But I didn't go. I wasn't. I wasn't enough to be going on a European adventure. So amazing. It would be amazing for Bournemouth or for obviously Nottingham Forest. It's been a while. Nick would love to be going to games himself. Anyway, we've run out of time. Thank you very much to Tim. You can say goodbye, Tim, if you want.

[Tim Spears]

Oh, right. Sorry, we don't normally do that. Cool. Cheers.

[Marc Maron]

Nick, can you say goodbye like a normal human being?

[Adam Leventhal]

Yeah. Goodbye, Adam. Goodbye, Tim. Thank you very much.

[Marc Maron]

Enjoy your footballing weekend everyone. The Athletic FC will be back on Monday. Take care till then.

[Tim Spears]

You've been listening to the Athletic FC podcast. The producers were Guy Clark, Mike Stavroot and Jay Beal. The executive directed producer was Ailey Moorhead. To listen to other great athletic podcasts for free. Search for the Athletic on Apple, Spotify and all the usual places. The Athletic FC Podcast is an athletic.

[Marc Maron]

Media company production.

[Adam Leventhal]

The Athletic FC Podcast Network.

[Nick Miller]

This podcast is brought to you by or by the time you hear about a data breach, your information has already been exposed for months. On average, companies take 277 days to report a breach. That's nine months where hackers have access to your personal data. That's why we're thrilled to partner with Aura. Aura is an all in one digital safety solution that monitors the dark web for your phone number, email and Social Security number, sending real time alerts if your info is found. It also includes a vpn, password manager and data broker removal to help keep you safe for a limited time. Aura is offering a 14 day free trial plus a dark web scan to check if your personal information has been leaked. All for [e-mail] safety that's aura.com safety to sign up and protect your loved ones. That's a u r a.com safety terms apply. Check the site for details.

[Tim Spears]

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[Marc Maron]

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For the past seven years, the Holderness.

[Marc Maron]

Family Podcast has been the most favorite thing we do. We love getting to talk to experts. We love having meaningful conversations just the two of us. And we also love hearing from you.

[Nick Miller]

But the thing we love most is.

[Marc Maron]

Being a place where you can laugh. A lot has changed in the last seven years and we feel very lucky that our audience is growing older with us. So in the spirit of that, we are relaunching our podcast. We are excited to introduce Laugh Lines with Kim and Penn Holderness. The Laugh Lines podcast will be all about aging together better and also being able to laugh about getting older.

[Tim Spears]

We hope you'll join us.

[Marc Maron]

Search Laugh Lines with Kim and Penn Holderness.

[Nick Miller]

New episodes every Tuesday.

[Tim Spears]

ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.