Who will actually win the World Cup?

Summary

The Athletic FC Podcast: "Who Will Actually Win the World Cup?"

Date: June 9, 2026
Hosts: Emma Paton, Adam Leventhal
Guests: Rob Green (ex-England GK), Liam Toomey, Mark Critchley, Tom Williams (report), Jack Lang (report)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the major contenders and dark horses for the upcoming 2026 World Cup, dissecting the strengths, weaknesses, and narratives around the key teams. The panel – including former England goalkeeper Rob Green – provides tactical analysis, insider anecdotes, squad reaction, and tournament predictions. Special focus is placed on the managerial transitions of England, the changing shape of France and Brazil, Spain’s cohesion, and the nostalgia and challenges of being a player at football’s greatest stage.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. England’s Chances Under Thomas Tuchel

• Pressure on Tuchel: Replacing Gareth Southgate, who brought recent success but fell short of a trophy.
• Tactical Strengths vs. Man-Management Risks:
  • Rob Green [04:02]: “That’s what he’s there for, isn’t it? You look at him in cup competitions… he’s been fantastic, particularly at Chelsea. Tactically, he's got everything you could ask in a manager. My one concern maybe is... it’s a long time together... whether he falls out with one or two players along the way with his abrupt style might be something for consideration.”
  • Liam Toomey [05:14]: “Tactically there are no questions… But we did see at Chelsea that managing relationships with players at times, particularly the attacking players at Chelsea was not easy for him. And so far these England players have had him in small doses… This is a big dose of Thomas Tuchel.”
• Squad Selection Debate:
  • Notable omissions (Harry Maguire, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden), surprising inclusions (Dan Byrne, Jed Spence, Ivan Toney).
  • Mark Critchley [06:40]: “I think what you want is to build a club atmosphere… playing for England is one of the most highly pressurized, uncomfortable environments… That was one of the biggest legacies from Southgate.”
  • Value of squad unity and non-playing leaders reflected on Southgate’s approach and continued by Tuchel.

2. France – “The Best Squad Depth” & Internal Dynamics

• Attacking Firepower, but Egos to Manage:
  • Tom Williams [14:36]: “There is quality and depth in pretty much every position… If history teaches us anything about France, it’s that often when they’re full of optimism… things tend to blow up spectacularly.”
  • Rob Green [16:04]: “If they start to play, don’t worry about it, just chuck them all on—play two at the back!”
  • Liam Toomey [16:37]: “This is the first time in Kylian Mbappe’s international career where he’s not unequivocally the main man… He might have to work more for the team.”
  • France’s challenge is balancing attacking riches (Mbappe, Dembele, Alise, etc.) and the historical risk of implosion.

3. Other Favorites: Spain, Argentina, Germany

• Spain’s Cohesion and Confidence:

  • Liam Toomey [20:56]: “Winners of Euro 2024… They have the top end talent, but I think they also have the cohesion and the identity that a lot of national teams lack.”
  • Concerns: poor World Cup knockout history since 2010, fitness of their young stars, depth at striker and goalkeeper (Unai Simon’s reliability).
  • Rob Green [23:34]: “Unai Simon...will play out from the back...he has a rick in him and it will be one where he’s rushed… It happens once a tournament for Unai Simon and it might cost him.”

• Argentina’s Experience:

  • Core remains from 2022 winners, Messi another four years older, but technical ability still decisive if the pace is manageable.

• Germany under Nagelsmann: Not discussed in detail, acknowledged as a favorite.

4. Brazil – Talent, Transition, and Neymar’s Role

• Uncertainty and Vulnerability:
  • Jack Lang [24:21]: “No one in Brazil is really sure how high to set the expectation levels… This isn’t a vintage team… Centre backs good, fullbacks not great… certainly not a flawless side. They’ll be hoping that everyone else is flawed as well—which I think is true.”
• Neymar & Ancelotti’s Management:
  • Neymar as a bench leader/potential “stepdad” figure (Rob Green [26:03]) rather than a starter; Ancelotti’s focus on maintaining harmony over drama.
  • Mark Critchley [27:02]: “If we’re talking about a tournament… which is basically like a geriatric World Cup… well, he’s only 34… it feels like he needs to be part of the party… it could be a bit of a mess, but it could be a beautiful mess and I sort of feel like that's what Brazil should be.”

5. Dark Horses & Potential Surprises

• Candidates:
  • Norway (Haaland, Ødegaard) – potential but questioned as a true “dark horse” with top talent.
  • Morocco – outstanding 2022 semi-finalists but perhaps no longer surprise material.
  • Switzerland – disciplined, organized, hard to break down; Rob Green [29:15]: “Very organized... pace on the wings... can hit on the counter... really, really stubborn in games which are going to be slow and 120 minutes long.”
  • Ecuador – 19-game unbeaten run, world-class defense, Caicedo as anchor (concern over his form and discipline); Liam Toomey [30:22]: “In a tournament where you may not need to score that much... having an elite defense, as Ecuador clearly do, could count for a lot.”

6. Predictions

• Giant Killings in Group Stage (Quickfire, 31:35):
  • Mark Critchley [31:46]: “Scotland beat Brazil.”
  • Rob Green [31:58]: “Haiti to beat Scotland.”
  • Liam Toomey [32:20]: “Does Norway beating France count?”
• Finalists and Winner (32:37):
  • Mark Critchley: “Spain vs England final.”
  • Rob Green: “France vs England final.”
  • Liam Toomey: “France vs Argentina.”
  • Emma Paton [33:38]: “Let’s see how it all pans out!”

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Memorable Moments and Quotes

• On Tuchel’s Style:
  • Rob Green [04:02]: “He’s supposedly... One of the best for communication… Whether he falls out with one or two players along the way with his abrupt style might be something for consideration.”
• Athletic Room Banter:
  • Mark Critchley [06:53]: (on predicting the Ivan Toney selection) “The top comment was: ‘Mark Critchley should no longer be able to professionally write about football’—and that got 48 likes.”
• France’s Infinite Talent:
  • Emma Payton [15:48]: “...the front line that they've got, Mbappe, Dembele, Elise, Doué, Barcola, Cherki—it's a ridiculous list.”
• Superstition and Mascots:
  • Emma Payton [20:01]: “France have a devoted fan… who has traveled to every single tournament since 1982 accompanied by a live cockerel—always named Baltazar. Obviously not the same cockerel... I think there have been about 35 Baltazars.”
  • Rob Green [20:10]: “I wore the same shin pads for every game that I ever played.”
• Brazil’s Unpredictability:
  • Mark Critchley [27:46]: “It could be a bit of a mess, but it could be a beautiful mess and I sort of feel like that’s what Brazil should be.”
• Quickfire Prediction Fun:
  • Mark Critchley [31:46]: “Scotland beat Brazil… That isn’t a prediction, it’s a spoiler.”
• England’s Old Camp Isolation:
  • Rob Green [40:32]: “I said, what can we do? And [security said], ‘Don't go out onto the street outside the fences.’ I said, ‘Why, media?’ He said, ‘No, it’s the orangutans, they’ll rip your arm off.’”

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Special Segment: Rob Green on Playing at a World Cup

• (From [35:56] onward)

Getting the Call

• Announced by text while on the train— “It was that underwhelming.”
• Green [36:19]: “It was more of a... it wasn't an if, really, it was a when I'd get the call.”

Fabio Capello’s Management

• Old-school disciplinarian — “Didn’t have a cane but wouldn’t really have been amiss if he did.”
• Created anxiety with post-training film sessions and public criticism.

The World Cup Experience

• Players felt “isolated” at South Africa camp; downtime filled with golf, staying within camp limits for fear of wildlife or boredom.
• Selection secrecy: often found out starting status only a couple hours before matches to avoid leaks.
• Lingering anxieties: “Normally I prepare two days before a game. I'm now doing this an hour before the warmup.”
• The infamous Jabulani ball added chaos; Green [45:04]: “It was making some of the best players in the world look farcical.”

The Weight of Failure

• Algeria match: “By the end... they all had the faces of the same about themselves going: this is just not going well… all of a sudden the confidence draining from them…”

Tournament Logistics

• Tournament scale and travel in North America will be uniquely exhausting for 2026 squads.
• Green [49:30]: “It was just utterly draining… keeping it bright, keeping it lively, not seeing each other every day will be a big thing.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:04] – England under Tuchel: squad, tactics, management
• [06:40] – England’s squad debate: picking for chemistry vs. raw talent
• [14:36] – France preview with Tom Williams; managing egos
• [20:56] – Spain, Argentina, Germany: strengths, challenges
• [23:34] – Spain keeper debate and weaknesses
• [24:21] – Brazil preview with Jack Lang; Neymar’s role
• [27:46] – Brazil “the beautiful mess”
• [29:08] – Dark horses discussion: Norway, Switzerland, Ecuador
• [31:35] – Giant killing quickfire
• [32:37] – Finalists & winner predictions
• [35:56] – Rob Green on England squad life and the 2010 World Cup
• [45:04] – Jabulani ball and England’s struggles in 2010
• [49:30] – Tournament logistics/travel challenges for 2026

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Final Thoughts

The episode offers a rich, candid look at the mental and tactical machinations underpinning World Cup glory—or failure. It reminds listeners that squad harmony, transparency in management, handling big personalities, and sometimes, elements as strange as accommodations, cockerel mascots, or unlucky shin pads, can all play a role in football’s biggest stories. With wide-ranging predictions—England facing Spain or France, Argentina lurking, Brazil tantalizingly chaotic, and Ecuador tipped as a hard-to-beat outsider—it’s clear this World Cup is as open and unpredictable as any in decades.

“It could be a bit of a mess, but it could be a beautiful mess and I sort of feel like that’s what Brazil should be.”
— Mark Critchley [27:46]

“Keeping it bright, keeping it lively, not seeing each other every day will be a big thing.”
— Rob Green [49:30]

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Next episode: Adam Leventhal joins for further World Cup buildup. All Athletic World Cup coverage is free for the tournament.

Transcript

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[Emma Payton]

Hello and welcome to the Athletic FC Podcast with me, Emma Payton. Today we are continuing our build up to this summer's World Cup. Coming up, we'll assess the favorites to win the tournament and even make some predictions as well. Plus we'll be asking former England goalkeeper Rob Green what it's actually like to play at a World Cup. Well, joining me in the studio today are the Athletics. Liam Toomey and Mark Critchley. Welcome along guys. Plus, as mentioned, a very special guest we've got ex England stopper Rob Green. How are we all doing?

[Rob Green]

Good, thank you Sals.

[Emma Payton]

Good. Do we feel like we we've got World cup fever just yet. Now that we're. We're two days away, I don't tend

[Liam Toomey]

to get it until the football really starts. I'm a very visual person. I need the games to be happening.

[Emma Payton]

I feel like you said it was.

[Mark Critchley]

I mean, I had it yesterday and it's building. And then I was looking at the games last night and all I'm going to say is, come back to me after. I think it's Algeria, Jordan at 4:00am

[Emma Payton]

I feel like you're gonna love June. I feel like I'm really gonna love it.

[Mark Critchley]

I'm staying up for it. Not getting up for it. Staying up for it.

[Emma Payton]

Staying up for it. Right, let's start then by discussing the contenders to win this tournament. By the way, if you do want more detail on every single side competing, be sure to check out our extensive team guide, which is available to read right now for free. On the athletic crit. You were telling us just yesterday how good that is.

[Mark Critchley]

Yeah, yeah. I think the lads have done a brilliant job. Far too many technical and tactical ideas that are beyond my comprehension. So read it, buy it, take it in, drink it in, drink it in, soak it in.

[Emma Payton]

I think it's probably only right that we start with England then. There is, of course, a lot of pressure on Thomas Tuchel after stepping into those big shoes that Gareth Southgate left behind. Of course, Gareth Southgate took them to the semi finals in 2018, quarterfinals in 2022. A couple of euros finals in there, Robert. I think the question probably is then is can Thomas Tuchel go that step further?

[Rob Green]

Well, that's what he's there for, isn't it? You look at him in cup competitions, historically, he's been fantastic, particularly at Chelsea. And you think t tactically, he's got everything that you could ask in a manager. My one concern maybe is it's a long time together. It's a long time as a group. It's a long time with him. He's supposedly speaking to the guys at Chelsea. One of the best for communication, one of the best for keeping everybody in his backroom staff on board and things like that. Whether he falls out with one or two players along the way with his abrupt style might be something for consideration. And we'll talk about my experience in World cup with BR managers, and that's something that sure will come up, but it's. That's my concerns. And then you're looking and saying, how good is the team? Actually, individual players we're looking at. We'll talk about the favorites and how many world class players they got, how many have we got? And that's where I'm scratching around a bit that saying maybe we're just one or two players short to really contend.

[Emma Payton]

I feel like you're nodding along when, when Rob was talking about Thomas Tuchel's relationship with, with some of the players.

[Liam Toomey]

Yeah. Because I think he articulated a lot of my concerns about Tuchel. I think tactically there are no questions. I think you. He can set the team up to win any game at any stage of this tournament. But we did see at Chelsea that managing relationships with players at times, particularly the attacking players at Chelsea was not easy for him. And so far these England players have had him in small doses. Little international breaks here in a few days here and there. This is a big dose of Thomas Tuchel and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing but it's just a new challenge for him as well. You know, he's been managing at club level until now and you know, I, I think that's the big unanswered question. I don't have a lot of questions about the way he selected the squad. I know it's been controversial but I think there's been a lot of sense in it. It's just about whether they can really bond as a group and stay with him for as long as they're in the tournament.

[Emma Payton]

Critch, Liam says there about a lot of sense in the squad that Thomas Tuchel has selected. I feel like when the squad announcement came out, people always obsess over the omissions, of course. No Harry Maguire, no Cole Palmer, no Phil Foden. Some surprise inclusions in many ways in the likes of Dan Byrne, Jed Spence, Ivan Toney as well. But everyone's got their own opinions, haven't they? So if we're just focusing not on who's not there but on who is there and looking at the 26 in the squad, does it actually feel like it's, it's well balanced?

[Mark Critchley]

So a couple of weeks ago the Athletic asked eight of us to pick our England squads and only one person picked. Ivan Toney. Can you guess who that was?

[Emma Payton]

Was it Mark Critchley?

[Mark Critchley]

It was me.

[Rob Green]

It's got to be you.

[Mark Critchley]

It's got to be me. It's got to be me.

[Rob Green]

That was going to bring that up without being right.

[Mark Critchley]

Well and the top comment on it was quite quote, mark Critchley should no longer be able to professionally write about football and that got 48 likes.

[Rob Green]

Now is that your mum writing Again,

[Mark Critchley]

Mum, please stop, okay, stop. I'm not bringing it up as like a victory lap because I think this could still go very wrong. We're still a long way out. I can see the no look penalty going wide in the round of 16 against Mexico or whatever. And I also left out Morgan Rogers, which was an absolute horrendous shout and I should probably own as well. But I think the reason why I put him in, and I'm not saying it's the reason why Thomas Tuchel put him in, but I think it's because international football, I think we tend to think of it as like fantasy football. There's no contracts, there's no transfer fees. You sort of just get to pick the 26 best, inform English players by position. But you actually, and I think Tuchel has said this from the start, what you want is to build a club atmosphere. You want an environment that people feel comfortable in because playing for England is one of the most highly pressurized, you know, uncomfortable environments that you could possibly be in a lot of the time in English football. So I think that has always been the aim and I think that was actually one of the biggest legacies, if you like, from, from Southgate, you know, and you look at this squad, there's a lot of names in there who perhaps wouldn't have been in squads previous years. There's a lot of names that would have been in there and they're not like Maguire, Foden, players who wouldn't even really be considered or weren't available like Walker, you retired, or Trippier. But I think if you look at it and you compare this squad to Tuko's first squad, I think it's 17 players who are in the first squad that he picked just over a year ago to now. So which is very few places up for grabs. There is that atmosphere, there is that sense of a club being formed together. And I think that's essential for international tournaments because it's, it's key to success. And I think, you know, Ivan Tony, for example, I picked him because this tournament you're going to have five knockout games. If you reach the final, that's five games where you could end up in a penalty shootout. Who's your best penalty taker? I want Ivan Tony there taking a penalty.

[Rob Green]

It's a point of difference, isn't he. He's a different way of playing. So if we go into plan B, it's a bit like a crouchy from back in the day. We're going to go and do something a Bit different. And I think the squad thing is. Is really interesting because he's taking it to another level. Gareth Southgate was brilliant at creating something bigger than the squad, creating something bigger than football. And we looked about the campaigns they did and stuff like that. That also brought them together as a footballing unit, which was something special in itself, what he's done. I think Thomas Tuchel has turned around and gone, I'm actually going to bring some guys who are just happy to be there, who aren't going to kick up a fuss if they've not kicked the ball for five games. And then all of a sudden you're looking around on the bench and you're looking saying, I need guys to be g ing the other ones up. And a brilliant example. I was really good with Gareth Southgate and with Martin Marguson. The goalkeeper coach was taking. Tom Heaton wasn't even in the squad, but brilliant guy, great trainer, great to have around the place and keeps the energy going. So rather than having guys going, not play for three games, what's the point? You've got guys going, I'm at the World cup still. This is great, you know, so it's. I think it's trying to take that to another level. Whether you're then looking around at the bench and going, crikey, I've not got the quality that I need to change the game. That's the bit where you worry.

[Mark Critchley]

But how many of these players are actually going to. How many have got a shot of starting?

[Liam Toomey]

15.

[Mark Critchley]

And then everybody else comes on in. Special situation. Tuca was speaking about Tony this week and he described them as special operations, special ops, that in a particular game, in a particular scenario, his skill set is going to be useful. I think, again, to go back to Southgate, Conor Cody was in the Euro 2020 squad, didn't play a minute and was described, I think, by Steve Holland. I remember at the camp at St. George's park, he said he's the most important player in the squad because he's around. He is essential for that atmosphere in the dressing room, for making that connection with players. I think of someone like Jordan Henderson, who I think probably has a lot more to offer on the pitch as well. But you speak to people about Jordan Henderson within the game, they'll tell you there's no bigger leader on the pitch, and that's what you need in these environments. It's what most successful club sides would have as well. You'd have a guy being around who knows the place, who knows the atmosphere and that to replicate that at an international level rather than just picking the 26 best English players I think is a sensible approach.

[Emma Payton]

I feel like we could talk about England all day, don't we? But we're going to move on and talk about some of the other contenders. Just before we do though, don't forget this summer, all World cup coverage in the Athletic app is free to read. That includes a dedicated hub and newsletter, pre tournament explainers and the language of soccer fan guys. There is also flagship products like the Stars of Soccer, plus a large newsroom of on the ground reporters delivering original reporting and analysis throughout the tournament. Any stories caught your eyes?

[Liam Toomey]

Well, my commute into the office was enlivened considerably by Jack Lang's piece on Diana Ross's penalty at the 1994 World Cup. It's just one of those quirky, iconic World cup moments that is written in the way that only Jack can. It's incredibly funny. It's very charming, I think, and quite fair to everyone involved. It's just, yeah, a lovely piece.

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[Emma Payton]

Okay, let's discuss then the two time World cup winners France, who always seem to have the best squad depth. Before we chat about them, let's hear from French football broadcaster Tom Williams on how Didier Deschamps sides are looking.

[Tom Williams]

Didier Deschamps is going into his final major tournament as front head coach. After 14 record breaking years at the helm, he's aiming to become the first coach since Italy's Vittorio Pozzo in the 1930s to preside over two World cup successes. For all the success that Deschamps has brought France, he has tended to get criticism about the quality of their football. They reached the semi finals at Euro 2024, but the football was pretty dreadful. That appears to be changing. Deschamps has reconfigured his attack. Michael Alise is now the number 10. You've got ousmane Dembele, the reigning Ballon d' or on the right, Kyan Mbappe, the captain banging in the goals at center forward and a supporting cast that includes Desiree Douay, Bradley Bacola, Hayen Sharkey, Marcus Turan, Magnus Eclij, etc. There is quality and depth in pretty much every position. There is tournament winning, know how both in the dugout and within the squad, France are clearly one of the favorites. But if history teaches us anything about France, it's that often when they're full of optimism and belief going into a major tournament, that is when things tend to blow up spectacularly.

[Emma Payton]

Tom, thank you for that and I hear you. But I mean those names guys, the front line that they've got, Mbappe Dembele, Elise Due, Barkala, Cherokee, It's a ridiculous list. Rob, that has got to be up there with one of the best frontlines.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, if they're start to play, don't worry about it, just chuck them all on play two at the back and.

[Liam Toomey]

And Ryan Cherky holding.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, that's what he wants anyway, doesn't he? I think that's part of the problem at Man City on the pep. But he states it is fascinating how he will shoehorn all those players on how he manages the egos. You've got one big ego who now potentially isn't the main man. You're saying, Liam, before we recorded. And you just look at that and think it's probably a bigger job off the pitch that he's got on it, really. Deshaun.

[Liam Toomey]

Yeah, I think a lot of the time with France, at tournaments, it's about managing the personalities as much as anything. And as we were saying, this is the first time, I think, in Kylian Mbappe's international career where he's not unequivocally the main man of the attack. You've got the reigning Ballon d' or next to him now in Eastman Dembele, you've got Michael Ale, who might be the best player in the world. You know, on any given day, he might be the best player on any pitch he's on. And then just a. A star, studded supporting car. So I think part. Part of what will determine their success is how Mbappe adapts to that new dynamic, I think, and whether he's willing to work for the team, because that hasn't been a big feature of his Real Madrid career so far. But on the other hand, he has generally delivered for France and delivered on the biggest of stages. You know, his World cup pedigree is pretty unimpeachable. So we'll see.

[Emma Payton]

We will see. It's going to be fascinating, isn't it? Do we feel like Mbappe will just fall in line?

[Mark Critchley]

I think he sort of has to, although I don't almost expect him to. At the same time, it's. It's difficult. Like, we're talking about these names here, and I'm not going to be able to pronounce them like Tom did, but great pronunciations. Yeah, great pronunciations. All these names, all the star, studded quality. This is a team that didn't score from open play until the semi finals in Euro 2024. Despite that, despite many of those players being there, and if we're talking about where they're playing, Tom's gone through it there. I mean, if Elise is a number 10, I prefer him wide, where he's been playing his best football for Bayern Munich. If Dembele is on the right, then he's been playing up front for psg, and that's where he's earned that Ballon d'.

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Or.

[Mark Critchley]

So the configuration, I think, is the big problem for Deschamps to try and get around. But you know, from Deschamps teams is that behind that there will be a really solid foundation defensively, and that's what France's success has been built on. And so that can carry them so far. It's about whether they get over the

[Rob Green]

line, I think in the heat as well. You look in France, clearly everyone's going to say favourites or near favorites. You just look at them and go, okay, how are you going to break teams down? And in particular Mbappe, because when he starts drift and come inside and almost pick up the same position as Elise does in a mirror image on the other side, and he's just not as effective. He needs to be making runs in behind, and if there's no space for him, that's, you know, he's kind of really nullifying himself. So ask me after about 10 minutes of the first game, if he started to make runs in behind, which are selfless and tiring, I think they'll have a chance. If he doesn't, then all of a sudden it's a bit like Real Madrid when he doesn't fancy. He comes to get the ball and he just stands there and goes. He's just like anybody else.

[Emma Payton]

Got a fun fact for you all before we move on, if you haven't seen this already, this is courtesy of one of our writers, Tom Burrows. In our guides, France have a devoted fan. A a seriously devoted fan, Clement Tomasevsky, who has traveled to watch them in every single tournament since the 1982 World Cup. Not just that, but he has been accompanied by a live cockerel. Yes. Which is always named Baltazar. Obviously not the same cockrell. No, no, no. I think I'm right in saying there have been about 35 B stars.

[Mark Critchley]

I was thinking it was the same cockrell.

[Emma Payton]

Y thought that originally very niche. But. Rob, did you carry around any lucky mascots? Not necessarily animals, but any, Any lucky charms?

[Rob Green]

Well, not really superstitious, but from the age of 16 and I'm not sure this is quite hygienic. I wore the same shin pads for every.

[Emma Payton]

I thought you're gonna say something else, but.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, the same shin pads for every game that I ever played.

[Emma Payton]

But that was that. You were superstitious about it.

[Rob Green]

No, no, no, no, no. You just, just, just didn't bother throwing them away. A couple of pieces of pack.

[Mark Critchley]

And these were proper shin pads. Not the little tiny discs, they were

[Rob Green]

the Brian Robson sondeco ones.

[Mark Critchley]

Yeah.

[Rob Green]

From 1982. Like the cockerel.

[Mark Critchley]

Nice.

[Emma Payton]

Okay. Away from shin pads and lucky charms, away from France as well. We have also, of course got the reigning World cup winners, Argentina, with captain Lionel Messi potentially playing at the World cup for the last time. Euros winners Spain with the likes of Lamine Yamal. Can't forget Germany under Julian Nagelsmann as well. I mean, Liam, Spain up there as one of the big favorites along with France, who, who for you has got the best chance out of those, those teams I've mentioned there?

[Liam Toomey]

Well, Spain are kind of radiating confidence coming in because they were the winners of Euro 2024. I think they've got pretty much the same team and the same dynamic, same coach. You know, we talked about a club atmosphere, trying to build that with England. I think Spain already have that around their key men, Lamin chief among them, and so they have the top end talent, but I think they also have the cohesion and the identity that a lot of national teams lack. We're not talking about them as we talk about France, about trying to find the right balance and trying to get things to click. They're already clicking, but they have some recent World cup history to try and overcome. They haven't won a knockout game since 2010, so it's a. It'll be interesting to see whether that's a mental block at all. And while Argentina haven't been quite as prominent, I think coming into this tournament as they were on in the last one, they also have incredible continuity. It's basically only Angel Di Maria that they're missing from the core that won the last World Cup. And yes, everyone, chiefly Messi, is four years older. If the tournament is played largely at walking pace, then his technical ability, which remains peerless, can still make the difference.

[Rob Green]

I think what, what made Spain special was how they played and, or how they are playing and it's not conducive to playing in heat because it are so much of them physically getting up, playing direct. And you're looking at Lamina Mal, you're looking at Nico Williams. They're not 100 fit either. So all of a sudden you're saying, wonderful team, brilliant. Just might not happen for them in this environment. And there's nothing to say, you know, we could, they could walk it, they could go through everything and say, yeah, we can do this. But actually teams that are required to play at fast tempo things that need that space to run into, Spain is up there And Ayatobel as well is one of the ones that I've. I mean, he's got a fantastic goal scoring record, don't get me wrong. But then you're looking at iglesias, who's a 33 year old, Celta Vigo center forward, who's his replacement. You're one sort of injury away from there being a real problem there in a really prominent position and he's an out and out center forward. So Michael Marino back, he's having his injury problems. We started to go along about 4 of the positions in there that are problematic for Spain, potentially.

[Emma Payton]

One position you haven't mentioned is keeper. Who do we expect to start? Because not the best one. Well, we know what David Raya's done this season at Arsenal. Premier League winner, Golden Glove winner. But it's Unai Simon who seems to be preferred.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, prone to a mistake, will play out from the back like we'll love to see goalkeepers do. And he has a rick in him and it will be one where he's rushed one and it's just fired into midfield and all of a sudden the whole Spain team goes, what's going on? And that, that is. That happens once a tournament for Unai team on and it might cost him.

[Emma Payton]

Right, next question. Where do Brazil fit into all of this? Five World Cups, of course, under their belt, including in 1994 that the. That the tournament was hosted in the U.S. carlo Ancelotti, Don Carlo, the new man in charge, but has only had four competitive games so far. So look, very early days, before we chat about Brazil, the athletics, Brazilian football guru Jack lan sent us this.

[Jack Lang]

I would say that no one in Brazil is really sure how high to set the expectation levels ahead of this World Cup. People understand that this isn't a vintage team. There's been a lot of transition since the last World Cup. Brazil have cycled through three coaches before settling on Carlo Ancelotti finally, who arrived last year. Hasn't had a great deal of time to work his magic, but at the same time is a vastly experienced coach. Has worked with a lot of these players before at Real Madrid and has given the whole setup this sense of calm and purpose, personnel wise, loads of options up front. Even though Esteban and Hodo injured, Neymar being included was obviously a very big deal. He's had a bit of an injury, but it's probably not going to be a starting player anyway. I would say that the center backs really good. Gabriel and Marquinhos areas of weakness. The fullbacks aren't great at all. And in central midfield, it's looking like Casimiro and Bruno Guimara is all Premier League. Well, Casemiro, I suppose, has left now, but familiar midfield to a lot of people. But, yeah, Brazil, certainly not a flawless side. I suppose they'll be hoping that everyone else is flawed as well, which I think there is something in that idea, so it'd be interesting either way.

[Emma Payton]

I mean, I feel like there wasn't too much optimism from Jack there, if I'm honest with you. But, Rob, one thing I want to pick up on is neymar, who turned 34 in February. He has, of course, been playing his club football in Brazil for Santos, a highly controversial pick given his age. His fitness issues as well. Where do you stand on it? I mean, I imagine he's. He's just going to be making cameos.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, you're looking as a Conor Cody sort of player within there. I think he's well liked by everybody, by all accounts. And so having someone in as a peer for some of the older players and then is almost like a. A stepdad for. For the younger players in there that you're looking at a guy who can bring a squad together. We see him as an almost divisive figure at times. The way that his history has gone, the way that he's played, the. The career path he's had. So it's going to be interesting to see how he. How that pans out. Look, an master of keeping people happy. That's basically all he did at Real Madrid is keep everyone happy. Will him out in a 4, 4 2, 4, 3, 3, and you sort it out. And so if he can do that with this Brazil side, that will be probably up there for a master stroke in. Even in his career.

[Emma Payton]

Do we feel like Ancelotti's kind of looked at it as less drama to have him maybe than not have him potentially?

[Mark Critchley]

I like the name I pick, to be honest. I like it. I think, like, absolutely, this could backfire. But if we're talking about a tournament here, which is basically like a geriatric World cup where a lot of players are late 30s, early 40s, I'm approaching that as well before anybody.

[Rob Green]

I'm making a.

[Mark Critchley]

Well, he's only 34 and, like, it feels like he needs to be part of the party and we know he likes a party from his. From his past, so. But I think it's also in keeping with just the slightly romantic edge that there is with Ancelotti's Brazil now, because he's not had a Lot of competitive games to judge him by. But there's a freedom, there's a free spiritedness, there's a trust in talented players. It's what we associate from an Ancelotti team, as you said, Rob. And look, it could be a bit of a mess, but it could be a beautiful mess and I sort of feel like that's what Brazil should be.

[Emma Payton]

Oh, a beaut. Said very well. Okay, let's talk about some of the, the so called dark horses then I'll mention a few and so see what you guys think. And if you've got any others that you're thinking of Norway not played in a World cup, of course, since 1998 they've got Harland and Odegaard. I'm intrigued to see how they get on. See Harland in a side that isn't a sort of top, top side gone.

[Rob Green]

Could you have the dark horses with one of the best players in the world?

[Emma Payton]

You know what, A few people are naming Brazil as dark horses and I found that astounding.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, Capello came out and said, oh, Norway are my dark horses. Oh, come on, you've not really put that much effort into that, have you?

[Mark Critchley]

You can get into Capello later. We'll do that

[Emma Payton]

right into that, don't worry. Colombia with the likes of James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz as well. Morocco, Critch, you were talking about them yesterday. Some people's outsiders obviously semi finalists back in 2022 won all of their qualifying games ahead of this tournament, captained by Ashrafakimi, you could say. In a favorable group, I think so.

[Mark Critchley]

They're not my dark horses though, actually.

[Rob Green]

I mean again I'm going if you're a semi final in the last tournament, you can't really be dark horses again.

[Mark Critchley]

But if it's a surprise semi final, if you're the first ever African nation to reach a semi final. No, we're not having that.

[Rob Green]

Not four years on.

[Emma Payton]

Okay, Rob, bring some, bring some real dark horse energy.

[Rob Green]

Ecuador.

[Mark Critchley]

Oh, that was mine. That was the one I was about to say.

[Liam Toomey]

Are they still dark horses? If it's a unanimous, we're all going

[Rob Green]

to say that Switzerland was the other one for same reasons. Very organized, very, very. They know what they're about. They've got pace on the wings and they can hit on the counter and they're the first game I'm going to go and see. So I'm putting them down. They've got a favorable group in there as well and looking. I'm just wondering whether goals later on might be an issue. But I watched a Kanji play there he is fantastic for Switzerland. Organizer just stands there, just say, get with me, I'll see you through this. And. And you know what? I think they're going to be really, really stubborn and really, really difficult to break down. And in games which are going to be slow games which are 120 minutes long, we're all stood looking at each other waiting for something to happen. They might just nick something.

[Emma Payton]

The Ecuador may be similarly hard to break down as well. Maybe this is why we've all been taking a little look at them, because they're on a 19 game unbeaten run. Got a genuinely world class defense and that seems to be their greatest strength. I think 13 clean sheets in that time as well.

[Liam Toomey]

Yeah, William Pacho, it's like the keystone of that PSG defense for me. Piero and Kapier as well. Obviously fantastic for Arsenal this season. And they've got Moises Caicedo in, in front of them, shielding that backline. Although I think he does a little bit more for Ecuador than he does for Chelsea.

[Rob Green]

Does he get us booked on top of. Might be missing in the knockout stages.

[Liam Toomey]

He could have been missing for their first group game, but the. But FIFA changed the rules. Not for Ronaldo. Yeah, but Caiceda was certainly a beneficiary of that change. But one thing to say about him is he's not coming into this tournament in his best form. I've watched him a lot at Chelsea in the last six months. Maybe his relentless workload has caught up with him a little bit. And that also contributes to the fouls where he's maybe getting into tackles slightly later than he would be. But he's still a phenomenal player. And I think in a tournament where you may not need to score that much even to get through the group stage, but certainly in the knockout rounds, having an elite defence, as Ecuador clearly do, could count for a lot.

[Rob Green]

Talking of geriatric World Cups, it's end of Valencia.

[Mark Critchley]

36 year old.

[Rob Green]

Yeah. Gotta go back to quite some time for him to be playing in the Premier League, but yeah, another one.

[Emma Payton]

Right, we're going to get some quick fire predictions in, so get ready, guys. First of all, giant killing in the group stage. Critch. This is a one off match.

[Mark Critchley]

Scotland beat Brazil.

[Emma Payton]

Wow.

[Mark Critchley]

That isn't. That isn't a prediction, it's a spoiler. They could put out Pele, Roberto Carlos, Socrates, whoever. Scotland would be in Brazil.

[Rob Green]

I'll go in true Scotland, fight style. Haiti to beat Scotland. This could happen in within games. This could Happen.

[Mark Critchley]

I was going to say Scotland to beat Haiti, but I thought that would just go down very badly.

[Emma Payton]

So I said, scotland, we need a giant killing. Yes.

[Rob Green]

I think Germany could struggle. Sorry.

[Emma Payton]

Ivory Coast.

[Liam Toomey]

Does Norway beating France count?

[Rob Green]

No.

[Liam Toomey]

My theory on that was just that it's the final group game and France may rotate a little bit.

[Rob Green]

Very good.

[Emma Payton]

I like it. Like it. Okay, lastly, one for all three of you. Who will make it to the final and who will win? Drumroll.

[Rob Green]

Oh, yes.

[Mark Critchley]

Spain versus England final.

[Emma Payton]

Wow. Okay.

[Rob Green]

I was having a look and Spain went. It's so hard because you plotting the route is. Is.

[Mark Critchley]

Yeah.

[Rob Green]

Something that I think this is the difficulty part of this World cup is the jeopardy's not there from very early on, and you're gonna have to wait and wait and wait until you go, oh, gosh, I'm not sure who's gonna, like, you know, who's gonna get through the group stages. So France is. Is one, and then I'll say England in the final. Looking at the brackets, if they win the groups gets it get England to the final.

[Liam Toomey]

Well, England, Spain has been the most common final at senior and youth level in recent years.

[Mark Critchley]

That's exactly why I said it. Thank you, Liam.

[Emma Payton]

Yes.

[Mark Critchley]

Yeah.

[Emma Payton]

Well researched.

[Nick and Jack (Walmart Business Advertisers)]

Yes.

[Liam Toomey]

England tend to win the. The youth level finals and Spain tend to win the big ones, but

[Emma Payton]

I

[Liam Toomey]

think France have to be there with their. With their talent level. I'm gonna go for France. Argentina.

[Emma Payton]

Oh, okay. Going against these two. Okay. It was fun getting predictions, and just let's see how it all pans out.

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[Emma Payton]

Right now. Rob, seeing as we've got you here in the studio, I want to tap into your experiences of being with England at an international tournament. So let's start with the World cup in 2010 and go back to the very beginning. When did you find out that you were in that squad and how did it all unfold? You know, did Fabio Capella call you up?

[Rob Green]

No.

[Emma Payton]

Send you an email?

[Rob Green]

I got a text as was the way with England then. It was very understated. I think perpetually scared of the media was another sort of reason that they just do things very last minute and it be as the squads announced. You get a text and it was that underwhelming. I had to think long and hard about this question because it's, I, I can't even, you know, it wasn't a moment in your life where you went, yes, I'm going to the World Cup. You, I don't know, you're on the train, you're walking down the street, you get a text, you go, all right, okay, better go.

[Emma Payton]

What's actually your reaction?

[Rob Green]

Well, you kind of, it was the way the squad had panned out. I think in that year that build up it was the most I played for England consistently basis so it was kind of, it was more Of a. It wasn't an if, really, it was a when I'd get the call. So that was. That was something. But getting the suit, getting in the hotel to. Before flying off to various camps before, which is another matter. You had that. That's when it really sunk in. You sat there. I sat in a hotel room with Matthew Ups and my West Ham teammate, which this has become very real all of a sudden. So that. That was probably the moment that it really sunk in. Getting the call didn't really. Didn't really happen, so to speak.

[Emma Payton]

The text happened on the train. What was Fabio like then?

[Rob Green]

Short course to the point. And you're looking at a guy who had had a lot of success doing it, how he had in a strict headmaster, dictatorial, didn't have a cane, but wouldn't have really been amiss if he did. And it was. And he made his point, made himself very, very clear as to how he felt about things. Maybe not so much in what he wanted, but what he didn't want was very clear. And she. We talk around going in after meetings, after training, and you knew that he'd film the training and you going into meetings, going, oh, please don't let it be that mistake I made in training or something. And it was an absolute obliteration in front of everybody, at the training, in the room, and it didn't matter whether it was me or yourself or John Terry or Frank Lambard or Rio Ferdinand, that you get it. And you just sit there thinking, okay, this for a number of weeks is going to be a rough ride, a tough gig. And, yeah, it transpired like that. It was a tricky period. We went to Austria for a pre tournament camp and the 2006 World cup, which I've been selected for, and got injured. We went to Portugal. It was very relaxed under Sven, and everyone had a nice time and we all sort of mingled and sort of just chilled out whilst training. This was at the bottom of a mountain, so wasn't really altitude, but was very, very isolated and there was nothing. And there was a pitch that we trained on which had a picture of every team that he'd managed on the wall because he'd been there all the time. And you speak to Italian lads and they say, yeah, pre season. We go away for a month in pre season and you sit there and you train and you train and you train and that's all we do. And that was the build up to the World Cup.

[Mark Critchley]

Can I ask about. I think one memory from the outside of that tournament was the downtime and the stories we would hear about Rustenberg and the camp. There's a famous one that Jermaine Defoe tells about being so utterly bored one night that a few players got into Wayne Rooney's room and watched a DVD of his wedding video. I've always wondered, did you not know that a World cup was on? Was it not Germany, Costa Rica, to sit on TV instead?

[Rob Green]

There's only so much football you can. It's. It's almost. Yeah, my. I think my last memory of it was, you know, we were in a hotel next to the pitches in a. In a camp that was very, very isolated and in. And amongst the very, very rural area of South Africa. And, and we said, oh. I said what? Spoke to chat to one of the security guys or something like that, said, what can we do? And he said, oh, what if you don't. Don't go out onto the street beyond the fences. I said, oh, what is it? Is it media there? What's there? And he said, oh, no, it's the orangutan. They'll. They'll rip your arm. Okay. So a lot of the guys would. There was a golf course probably 20 minutes away, and then the odd occasion, we got to play golf. There was. And you. Pelt bulls at crocodiles, that, that sort of thing. Who was in the, in the hazard, in the water, very hazardous. But that was kind of. That was about it for, for the whole tournament.

[Liam Toomey]

This is kind of a weird one, but do you remember anything about the Cappello Index? There was this website that was going to launch in the tournament with Fabio Cappello's informed ratings of players, including England players. And our colleague Jackpot Brook wrote about this in the last week or two for the Athletic. Do you remember if there was anything, any talk in the squad about this, that, you know, this thing with Capello's name was going to be ranking England players at the tournament.

[Rob Green]

I remember it now. You mentioned it. Yeah. And. And I'm glad it never came to fruition. Yeah, it was. As samples go, I think I'd have been around the bottom of a very small pool. But, yeah, it was. It felt like there was a lot of strange noises going on outside because you're so isolated, you don't really know what's going on. So getting dropped was another thing that you sort of. I found out and I phoned home and they go, oh, yeah, we knew. I mean, mates knew and everybody knew because it had been in the media at home. And this is, you know, you're not Getting social media hits as often and stuff like that. And you know, one of the best ways to look at it was to go on the betting website and to find next starting 11 or something like that. And all of a sudden and you're talking about strange noises, you're going, oh wow, he's a favorite to start and all this. The players who were playing were becoming very, very quickly becoming favourites. So it was a really odd sort of dynamic.

[Emma Payton]

But even with the USA game, am I right in saying that you only found out that you were starting like an hour and a half before?

[Liam Toomey]

Before.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, yeah, it was two and a half hours. The team meeting. Petrified of the media. Capella had had a game previously where he'd written out the team on a piece of paper pre meeting and someone in the hotel opposite had taken a photo through the windows into the meeting room of our meeting room to get the team sheet and that got leaked and all this sort of stuff. So very, very sort of cloak and dagger. There are two moments where you look back with hindsight and you think, I wish I trusted my instincts more or confidence because it never really got given any confidence with it. And there was a save I made against, I think it was against Mexico in the build up in one of the friendlies. And then the night before we trained and I made a game save against Shore, Wright, Phillips and I just remember, right, his face sort of just looking at me going, have you made that same. And if I'd have taken that thinking, I've shown that I'm on top for, I'm showing I've done everything, I can start your preparation now, but in the back of your mind going, you don't know. And you just, just held back because of that. And so that's, that's the two points where I should have thought a, I've nailed my spot down and I didn't. And so you get to two and a half hours before game and you think, normally I prepare two days before a game. I'm now doing this in an hour before the warm up. It becomes very, very sort of very, very truncated. Very very, you know, short and brief and just going, right, okay, picturize picture, you know, everything and get into that motion. And it was all quite surreal. The ground was surreal, the whole occasion was surreal and it was, it was an, an odd evening.

[Emma Payton]

And the ball calls caused problems as well.

[Rob Green]

I'd love to put it down, I'd love to put it down to the gibbial. Yeah, it was all down to that, but it was an absolute nightmare. I mean they've never made anything better than the Tango, but it was, yeah, it was making some of the best players in the world looking farcical. And when you've got a manager like you have and players are petrified to take a touch petrified to hit a pass over five yards off the ground, you know, you're looking at players who demanded such high levels that if you're passing them a ball or rolling them a ball or they're receiving a part if it's not in the right space, got not the right curve on it or spin and that sort of stuff, they go what are you doing? What was that? You know, that's the standards you're talking about. To then go into going well I'm going to kick it 15 yards and I have no idea where this is going to go. That it could go, you know, off in a tangent in a completely different orbit. Then all these players all of a sudden were just left sort of guessing. Which lent. Also lent itself to some spectacular goals. It was, it was added to the list of really bizarre stuff at a World Cup.

[Liam Toomey]

The Algeria game that followed the U.S. game. I think for England fans of a certain age that is like an all time nadir. Remember what was it? Was it you weren't there just as a viewing experience so in the stadium was it as mind numbing as it was on tv? The way that game played out?

[Rob Green]

I think you. I was in a sort of, sort of almost a days after in you looking at a game

[Liam Toomey]

where

[Rob Green]

in in the world in the USA game when I let obviously let the goal in, you look around, I looked around and I thought right, need to snap out of this, create a new mental state, go into something and you go into the dressing room at halftime, you look around and players faces just like looking at me going oh crap, you're in trouble. Like this is you. You've got something coming to you which you don't know what's happening gonna happen. By the end of the Aldira game they all had the faces of the same about themselves going this is just not going well. This is earns. It wasn't like it felt like there was nothing we could do to change it. And you're looking at the big characters who been storming the Premier League, storming champions leagues doing. And all of a sudden the confidence draining from them and you're thinking if that's draining from them, what's you know, how are we going to carry on playing like this? So it was yeah I. It felt in terms of confidence as well. It completely evaporated by then.

[Emma Payton]

It's fascinating hearing your insights, I think. It obviously feels like England have got a completely different culture now. You know, that's. You'd hope so, but, you know, largely thanks to Gareth Southgate, really. Just before we go, then, how do you think players will handle a tournament that is. Look, this is the biggest World cup we've ever had, so a tournament that is so vast, so many games, a lot of traveling as well. The conditions obviously thrown into the mix.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, the traveling is a tricky one. And you're talking. You could play in San Francisco where it's quite cloudy and quite just calm, and then go off to Mexico where it's wild in terms of atmosphere and also the humidity and stuff like that, the altitude. So you've got different conditions and you go into Poland and Ukraine. We had a base in Poland. They wanted to do something very different to what they had in Sun City in South Africa. And so we were in a city, we were doing something, we were in around, but we flew to every game and then we flew back and then a day later we fly somewhere else. And it was just utterly draining in terms of just the amount of travel, in terms of the amount of what was required. In South Africa, we had to take our own duvets and pillows because the hotels weren't good enough to say we can guarantee they're not flea infested or whatever it was. So we ended up carrying our own pillows and duvets.

[Emma Payton]

That was the worst nightmare.

[Rob Green]

Yeah, so you're looking at that. It's better than it was. But I do think the travel is going to be massive. I do think it's a really draining situation for England that they are based somewhere where they're not playing any games and after a period of weeks, you kind of lose sense of time, days, stuff like that. So keeping it bright, keeping it lively, not seeing each other every day will be a big thing. I think just going and disappearing for a day is. Is something that we couldn't do and I think that really kind of just really didn't help in any way, shape or form. I remember Gary Neville coming in under Roy Hudson in 2012 and just going, just tell the lads to go away. And it was such a good bit of advice that he'd been there and he'd say, no one should see each other tomorrow and just go away. Whether they get that opportunity, I think if you get it, take it.

[Emma Payton]

Rob, thank you for joining us. I feel like we're gonna have to get you back because we need. We need more. More stories.

[Rob Green]

Yes, I've got plenty of them.

[Emma Payton]

Yeah, plenty of them.

[Rob Green]

Not many good ones.

[Emma Payton]

They're interesting nonetheless. So thank you for joining us. Thanks to Mark and to Liam as well. Remember, you can watch or listen to us wherever you get your podcasts. And don't forget to subscribe to our channel. Subscribe if you haven't already, and stay across the Athletic for World cup coverage. Free to read for the entire tournament. Adam Leventhal will be with you tomorrow, and I'll see you soon.

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