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Mark Carey
The Athletic FC.
Duncan Alexander
Hello and welcome to the Athletic FC Tactics Podcast. My name is Duncan Alexander and today we're going to be discussing the evolution of goalkeeper distribution. Are teams going long more often? And how is it changing our league and the game? Joining us today we have Mark Carey.
Michael Cox
Hello.
Duncan Alexander
And Michael Cox.
Michael Cox
Hello.
Duncan Alexander
So lots of discussion about tactics, not just goalkeepers, all tactics this season going a bit old school headed. Goals are up, passing are down, and one thing we've seen pretty much across the board is goalkeepers kicking long mark. Do the numbers back that up?
Mark Carey
They do, I think with a bit of context that probably needs to be surrounded in it. If we look at long balls specifically, I guess from what Opta have defined, it's balls or passes that are 32 plus meters, or for those who are interested in it, 35 plus yards. And looking at it as a share of the total passes, it is trending back upwards, having taken a steady decline in, in recent seasons. So 52% of goalkeepers are going along this season. That's up from 47% in the past two seasons, which is a, I'd say notable but not significant increase. So it's definitely kind of. Yeah, well, worthy of note. And I think what's also worthy of note is the fact that looking back in previous seasons, in the 2018, 19 season, goalkeepers were going long 69% of the time. So I just feel like the chat that we're going to have is about kind of maybe not necessarily regression, but there's been a bit of a change and a shift back to how the Premier League has been in seasons gone by. And I feel like people think that it's maybe seasons gone by in terms of the mid-2000s, but it wasn't that long ago. Is the point I'm making that the goalkeepers were going long the majority of the time, 69% of the time in the 2019 season. That's only six or seven seasons ago.
Duncan Alexander
Yeah, I'm sure we'll come onto this as well, but it's sort of, I guess, quality v quantity as well. A little bit.
Mark Carey
Yeah.
Duncan Alexander
When you mentioned 2019, and obviously that was the year when the goal kick rule was changed where you could receive a goal kick from your goalkeeper or another player within your own penalty area, I think that in terms of esthetics, that was a real change and that was where we, we sort of saw, you know, one of the most visible changes to how football looked since probably the back pass law in the. In the early 90s.
Michael Cox
Yeah, I think it's quite interesting because obviously the very literal consequence was that you could now play the goal kick short. But I think the knock on effect has been there's been more scope to play it long because basically the pitch has become completely spread out. You've often got two centre backs on the edge of their own six yard box. You've got players who are, you know, tasked with charging them down very high up the pitch. But that's created more space, particularly in the midfield zone. And as we've often mentioned on this podcast, sometimes you have kind of five players on your team around the box and five players on the halfway line. And whereas before, if a goalkeeper was going to kick long, it would be to a very congested area in the center of the pitch. It was in general, I don't think it was really a pass. It was basically, look, we'll create a 50, 50 ball and it'll be on the halfway line. And that's better than us having the ball necked to our own goal. Whereas now, I think because things are more spread out, you've got more scope to play, maybe a flatter pass, maybe more pinpoint pass, and for players to actually bring it down and start playing rather than just contesting an aerial duel and let's see who gets the second balls. So I think it's actually been a really positive change. As often as these things go, maybe not in the way that people anticipated.
Mark Carey
I do think that's the main point that was probably worth discussing today is the qualitative difference, which Michael mentioned on the note of kind of just going back to the quantitative difference in goal kicks especially. It is often the case this season that goalkeepers are going long from goal kicks, but they're not necessarily the ones to take the goal kicks. So in the numbers, there's a really high rate now of centre backs passing to the goalkeeper, who then subsequently goes long and often will out a pass rather than it being a sort of a hopeful ball, if you like. But the numbers do bear that out, that it's going more short.
Duncan Alexander
Yeah. And some teams even have the center half just taking the, the goal kick now. I mean, it used to be a point of shame for a goalkeeper if they'd had their groin, that you'd have your, your center half. But sometimes, you know, the, the kind of misdirection goes so far now that they'll just have the center back just taking it long as if it was the, the 90s. And I think that is an important difference. You touched on it there, Michael. But just how different it was back in the 90s where, you know, teams at Wimbledon, well, a lot of teams really would just lump it up to looking for that big man, looking for sort of the second balls.
Michael Cox
Yeah. And it was balls intended for the head of a teammate, really. And I guess that's the difference between a long ball and a long pass certainly is the way I think about it. A long past is more or less kind of going in behind. And a long ball was a kind of hopeful punt down the pitch. I mean, the thing I think is quite interesting is, you know, we've spoken already on this, on this podcast this season about how things are becoming a bit more direct in the Premier League. Things like long throws doesn't seem to have really been a trend elsewhere in Europe. And it was interesting. I looked at the stats in terms of goal kicks going long, and actually Spain is the one with the highest percentage of. Of launch goal kicks according to Fbref, which I think is over 40 yards. And you think of Spain as kind of the. The home of short passing and that kind of thing, but it's absolutely not the case at the moment. I mean, in France, initially, the rate of goal kicks going along is only 40%. I think the Bundeslig, the Premier League is somewhere between 40 and 50. But Spain in this alone is actually the most direct league in terms of getting the ball forwards from goal kicks.
Mark Carey
I think that is kind of. Yeah, the perception. I know from speaking with Tom Harris, who watches a lot of La Liga, that there's. There's the aesthetically pleasing sides like Real Madrid and Barcelona, but there's a lot of disruptive La Liga sides who are quite agricultural in the way they play. So I suppose that does kind of tally with that. I think I know that you were speaking about the buy and Deer example of passing to Cunha. Was it for Manchester United against Fulham? Michael from outside taken down by Kuna and Idol to Idol.
Duncan Alexander
Leno has made a terrific save. That touch from Cuna, the pass from Bayern there. But this touch is absolutely brilliant.
Michael Cox
It deserved a goal.
Mark Carey
I think that's kind of a good example to use because I think within that sequence he is stepping forward further and further and he's about 5 to 10 yards beyond the penalty area when he's passing it. Such that when we're talking about the long pass, that's maybe going a bit more to feet. It's also from a position that's probably not dissimilar from years ago, where a centre back is starting and maybe trying to play a diagonal more of a pass than a long ball. I think historically, if you think of a goalkeeper playing a long ball, it's somewhere around the penalty spot and they are just trying to play percentage football and trying to get it sort of for territory. But now they're able to play a bit more of a pass because the receiver of that pass is not as far away from them as if they were the goalkeeper were further back and then the striker were maybe trying to run off the Shoulder of the defender.
Duncan Alexander
Yeah, that's a really good point. And Michael, you've got a piece coming out next week on that that basically we're at a point now, football, where players are so good at controlling the ball that it has changed. The reason for playing it long?
Michael Cox
Yeah, I think the general perception and the way I've usually thought about it is playing it short is a kind of technical thing to do. If you've got really good footballers hitting the ball long. Hopefully is, is maybe a bit more direct, a bit more old school. But actually, I mean the Cunha one's a good example because he gets through on goal straight away. It's like a one on one situation and Lena makes a really good save but his touch to bring it down is, is just really, really good. The kind of thing you can't really imagine a player doing 25, 30 years ago. And I mean part of that is the quality of the delivery. It's not loops into the air and dropping suddenly. It's a really good pinpoint delivery that a player can bring down. And I think there's more examples. I mean maybe this is such an unusual goal that you can't really use it as a, as a classic example. But the Mitoma goal that he scored against Chelsea last year from Verbruggen's long kick like the touch was so good. And if you've got a player who can do that, and Mitoma seems quite good at it because there was an incident against Everton earlier this season when he hit the bar, it was quite similar. But if you've got a player who can do that, and obviously he's really quick, I mean the one against Everton this year, when you look at when he has the shot, there's only two center backs in the, in the box, I think him and a teammate. So you're getting the ball into a great situation where there's just loads of space and the player has space and time to control it and bring it down and suddenly you've got a two on two situation, which that's not the kind of thing you would really think of 25, 30 years ago, with the exception of the kind of classic Route 1 where someone's got a winner flick on and then you've got maybe you know, a strike against the last defender but you're not transferring it directly to the striker who's throwing goal. So to me it does feel like quite a different situation.
Mark Carey
I think this is a really good point and I've actually got some number hopefully to support Michael's point and it's using data from Opta. Again, I don't know whether you're familiar with this, Duncan. It's actually a metric that's called a goalkeeper hoof. Optor have defined it as a goalkeeper dropping the ball on the ground and kicking it long towards a position rather than a specific player. I do think this really tallies with Michael's point because in the 201819 season there was an average of 1.7 goalkeeper hoofs per 90 across the board this season so far and last season actually that's now at 0.9 per 90. So nearly halved. And I do think it speaks more to Michael's point that it's actually being targeted now because the whole point of this hoof is that it's kicked towards a position, an area, rather than a player. And now I feel like that that is sort of flipping on its head and now it's going towards more of a specific player to try and catalyze the attack rather than just a 50 50.
Michael Cox
There's a great example as well in the women's Euros when England beat Netherlands of Hannah Hampton's pass in behind for Alessia Russo.
Mark Carey
Wow.
Michael Cox
Russo in behind.
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Mark Carey
Russo keeps her feet options.
Michael Cox
Here's Lauren James. James, can we just see this pass from Hannah Hampton? Look at this. Outside of her right foot drilled to perfection. I think that's quite an interesting one because it was so well weighted that Rusa didn't actually take a touch. She basically just used her body to kind of ease the defender out the way and ran onto it. And in the end, she wasn't the one who scored. She passed to Lauren James who scored. But I mean, it was one that I was kind of sitting at the other end, almost opposite end to a hansom striker. It's one of the best passes I've ever seen. Like, it was. It was so well weighted and with a little bit of swerve on the outside of a right foot just to take it into a channel where no one's going to get. And it's like, well, that's. It's a long ball, but it's not. It's a really good through ball. If that was, you know, Andrea Pirlo playing it downfield for a striker, you'd be like, well, that's exactly what he's in the team to do.
Duncan Alexander
And yeah, teams are getting better. I mean, I guess we lost a master of it this summer in Edison, who got four assists last season.
Michael Cox
No goalkeeper had ever Got more than two assists in a Premier League season. So to double that is quite spectacular. And also that was funny because it was. I mean, I think we've talked about the slight return to direct football more over the last couple of years. He could kick the ball so far. I mean, it was accurate as well, but just the sheer distance on his goal kicks, you know, after coming in for Bravo, who was good with his feet but wasn't really someone who could do that, I don't think I'd ever seen a goalkeeper kick it that far. It was quite spectacular.
Duncan Alexander
He got that assist for Aguero, didn't he, quite early on, which is a perfect example of that.
Michael Cox
Yeah. And. And when they had Aguero and Sun and Sterling, three really quick players, and they also exploited a thing that maybe everyone hadn't thought about properly, which was that you couldn't be offside in a goal kick. So that, again, stretched the play out even more because they were very adept at playing the ball short, so they were just completely stretching it. They were saying, look, you're going to have to close this down on the edge of our own box. And. But also, if we want to put Aguero on the D, Edison can get there. And I think that was one of the things that made City so difficult to cope with.
Mark Carey
I think he was a really notable example, or has been like, in the Premier League era for that genuine creativity because he's got the ability to do it. But it feels like there is a trend upwards of creativity, intentional or otherwise, from long balls from goalkeepers. And the reason I say that is because there's already been nine chances created from goalkeepers, from long balls this season. And you compare that again with previous seasons, you're sort of hovering around, around. Well, previous seasons include 22, 16, 11, 14 across a whole season, and we're already at nine. Which I think points to the idea that, yeah, goalkeepers are maybe targeting those players more. I also think it's probably worth speaking about how when teams are going more man for man, at the top end, you are maybe then leaving the striker with a center back. And there's a few occasions within this data set that I've got that I looked at the video and it was, if not a hopeful ball, a targeted ball to the striker who was just battling 1v1 and ended up shrugging off that player and then sort of taking the stride. Sounds a bit like the Russo example that you gave Michael. But the pass from the goalkeeper itself maybe wasn't as creative, shall we say? But I think it sort of links with the way that teams are trying to push really high, knowing that they're then sort of going one for one at the back. But now strikers are big and strong enough to be able to shrug them off, use the goalkeeper's pass to essentially turn and be facing goal pretty soon. So nine chances already this season, considering we're not even halfway through the season, looks odds on to beat loads of previous tallies.
Duncan Alexander
Do you think the new eight second rule for the goalkeepers had an impact on that? Because obviously we haven't actually seen many examples of a keeper being punished. I think Martin Dubravka is the only one so far. But it does mean that games are kind of restarted more quickly because everyone is essentially adhering to the rules. So do you think that sort of factors into it?
Michael Cox
Yeah, I don't think teams have enough time really to get into the system, into the shape they want to when they're playing out. So I think, yeah, there probably have been more examples of goalkeepers basically just getting rid of it. I do think this is one of those things that tends to be policed quite. I mean, Dubravka was the first week or the first and I haven't heard any sign of it recently. And also I just think it's a bit unknown. I don't think it was that much of an issue before. Like there was a rule, everyone knew about it. The thing that's changed now is the punishment obviously, because you get a corner.
Mark Carey
Yeah.
Michael Cox
So I think the refs are probably more likely to give it because giving an indirect free kick was quite a big punishment for something that doesn't really matter. And the difference between 8 seconds and 9 seconds doesn't really matter. But yeah, I think it probably did make goalkeepers panic a bit.
Mark Carey
One thing I think that goalkeepers are doing to kind of circumnavigate it is to hold on to it for four seconds, then look around, drop the ball and then they've still got possession of the ball, maybe can allow the team to get settled and get into their build up position if you like, and then start to play it so that they're not technically breaking the rules. But I wonder whether in the same way that teams and leagues profited from the short goal kick, the back pass rule, all the stuff that sort of rule changes historically. I know this is only a small one, but whether opponents will maybe knowing that goalkeepers are more likely to still try and get their team into settled possession and drop the ball will kind of go Back to the classic hide behind the goalkeeper or hide near the post, pretend to do your shoelace. And then almost, even if it's in a bit more of a conscious, effortful way, kind of pin the goalkeeper to make sure that they are releasing the ball, whether it's with their feet or their arms by throwing it, because otherwise they will still drop the ball and allow them to get into settled possession. So I think the return of the striker hiding behind the goalkeeper could be a thing in the seasons that follow.
Michael Cox
The strikers are getting penalised more now for like preventing the goalkeeper releasing it. Right. Have you noticed that?
Mark Carey
Yeah, yeah.
Duncan Alexander
So that's more of that this season than the goal.
Michael Cox
Yeah, exactly.
Mark Carey
Yeah.
Michael Cox
But then the goalkeeper, then they give a free kick to the goalkeeper and it's like, do they want. They probably prefer to just have the ball in their arms and have a couple more seconds. Do you know what I mean? It doesn't always need to be free kick. I don't know. It's funny you mentioned to Ravka because I was looking at the stats of the goalkeepers who kick longest this season. Obviously last week we chatted about the promoter teams and how well they're doing and probably they're doing well because they're not trying to play too much football. Actually, the. The goalkeepers from the three promoted teams are in the top four from the big five European leagues of the percentage of the time they kick long. I think that's really interesting. So the other one is a guy called Donovan Leon for Ozer, but otherwise it's Rufes Perry who has been dropped now by Leeds and Dubravka. They're not just doing the kind of Premier League average, they are the goalkeepers in Europe going longest. I think that's really interesting.
Mark Carey
Yeah. Again, probably having learned from Southampton and Burnley in seasons gone of trying to emulate the elite size and not doing it to any success at all to know that actually there's an element to which you have to play that sort of football.
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Can't I just let it go?
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Duncan Alexander
Mark, you noticed something about Mamadashvili? We've moved into an era where most goalkeepers are pretty comfortable kicking off both feet. I remember there was a former Derby and Wickham keeper from the 90s, Martin Taylor, who could kick, who did take goal kicks in fact with both feet and it was seen as a almost like a exciting circus act at the time. But now it's becoming a lot more common. But there are still some, obviously some issues with stronger and weaker feet.
Mark Carey
Yeah, and I don't know if it's a bit of a stereotype that a left footed player, whatever the position is very left footed shall we say. But it did just feel like Marmadashvili was less willing to play the ball with his right foot and obviously him having to deputise for Alisson who's great with his feet and his distribution in general. It just seemed against Chelsea who pressed really well I must say against Liverpool and did force them back so much so that then they forced them back to passing to Marmadashvili. Each of the passes that were made or most of the passes that were made felt like it was to Marmiteshvili's right foot and he's a left footed player such that he then had to either shuffle it onto his left foot and that extra half a second or second then allows Chelsea to squeeze Liverpool even more or play it with his weaker right foot and then the buildup itself kind of broke down a little bit further down the line. So I think it shows how much you do have to put a bit of a message on the pass. I suppose that just shows that the teammates know when they're passing to an established goalkeeper or goalkeeper that's been there for a while that if they are going to then hit it long first time to try and release the pressure that that pass itself from the centre back or the fullback is directed to the right area so that they can do it first time and it just felt like the weekend just gone was just a bit noticeable because it was. They were assuming it was almost to Alisson and it would be on his right foot when Mojashvili is very left footed.
Duncan Alexander
Well there's been a lot of chat about feet but that's not the only way that goalkeepers can distribute the ball. There's obviously the throw as well popularised by Peter Schmeichel very much in the 90s who could bowl it a long, long way.
Mark Carey
Yeah.
Duncan Alexander
What have we noticed about throws recently?
Michael Cox
Yeah, just less of them. I mean I think even Pepe Reina was, was always spoken about in that respect for kind of really big diagonal 50 yard overarm throws to get Liverpool going on the counter attack. But yeah, again you just don't really see it as much anymore. And I think it's basically just because goalkeepers are good with their feet now and you're better off kicking it than you are throwing it. They can do that quicker and more accurately over 50 yards. But yeah, certainly when I was a kid and you know, you get booked about, you know, how I'd be good at football and you say what skills you need as a goalkeeper, I think they, they just Talk about punting it downfield as far as you can or there's quite a big emphasis on overrun throws and doing that kind of 30 yards usually to your fullbacks. But the idea that you would be kind of clipping passes out to your fullbacks or playing you know, line breaking passes, it just wasn't. It just wasn't a factor. Whereas now, yeah, you don't really see. You see them kind of chucking out to the defenders. You don't really see any overrun passes.
Duncan Alexander
A little overhead sometimes a little almost like a throw in within their own box to sort of just get it over the front line, don't you?
Michael Cox
You know what, I was at a King Stoney game on Tuesday and I saw a goalkeeper try that to like launch a counter attack. But like he did it as like a throw in.
Mark Carey
Yeah.
Michael Cox
And I thought that was really strange. I just don't think I've seen that it didn't work particularly well. And this is you know the kind of eighth tier of English football so it's not to be taken too seriously. But I did think I'm sure a goalkeeper 20 years ago would be have a bit more of a overarm, a more elegant throw. I think yeah. More than anything I feel like those.
Mark Carey
Sorts of throws where it is looking like a conventional throw is more born out of circumstance that the player's in their way. And I rarely see one uncontested almost it feels like it's because there's a player in the way of them. But I was looking into the numbers on throws in general and of course it could be an underarm 5 yard throw so we're trying to discount those. So I was trying to look at throws that ended in the attacking 60% of the pitch. So just beyond their own kind of defensive third. Just as a bit of an idea to see who would do it it more often. I imagine between the two of you you'd be able to to know who that person would be who would do it most often in the Premier League since the start of last season.
Michael Cox
The only one I think of is Robert Sanchez.
Mark Carey
Basically there's a standout three. Robert Sanchez for Chelsea is, is the third. Nick Pope for, for Newcastle does it quite often. And David Ryer for, for Arsenal does it quite a lot. And he does it really well actually. I watch back all the exact examples of them most often when he does them when Arsenal defending a set piece and it's often Martinelli again since the start of last season less so this season it's been jocker as a little bit more. But when Raya claims the ball will have an outlet and someone just basically runs towards the halfway line and he will kind of throw it with an overarm but with enough spin that it kind of lands in the feet of.
Duncan Alexander
The player a little bit, isn't it?
Michael Cox
Yeah, there was a period where he was doing it. I mean, maybe this is, you know, the eight second rule makes it tougher, but there was a period where kind of when Arsenal were getting into their build up phase, well, he'd kind of carry the ball to the edge of the area and kind of like just really look for parts and then chuck it. Like really pinpoint in a way again, I haven't really seen before. But yeah, it feels to me like this season he's kicking long. A bit more.
Mark Carey
Yeah, it's an interesting shout. Yeah. 41% of Raya's passes so far this season are long and that's up from 33% last season. So Michael's eye test definitely matches what the numbers are saying. Interestingly, actually the season before, the 22, 23 season, he was at 42%, so very close to where he is this season. So I think we know from Riot that he kind of transformed the way that Arsenal can distribute in general. So he can play it short and play it long, throw it or kick it. So I think that shows just how elite he is for Arsenal as title contenders.
Duncan Alexander
One thing you don't see much of anymore is the sort of side volley technique quite popular in the 2000s with your canizzares and Pepe Reina was a big advocate of it. Aesthetically lovely, but probably a bit inaccurate for. For modern usage.
Michael Cox
Yeah, I always thought it was slightly. It just feels good to do it, I think. And yeah, I think they were trying to hit it long without. If you do it kind of straight on, you're going to get more of a looping delivery, aren't you? Where there was. They were trying to play it a bit flatter, but yeah, I always thought they always tried to do it with a bit of kind of slice as well. And yeah, I mean it looked good. I don't necessarily think it was that effective and you don't see that much anymore.
Mark Carey
No. Although Pepe Reina I think did have a couple of assists as a consequence of them. 1 Albert Riera against Aston Villa, I want to say. Yeah, so, yeah, it could, it could.
Duncan Alexander
Be lucrative if, I mean, Alisson. Alisson had a couple for Mo Salah, I think, both against Manchester United where he kind of it was a psychic, but he also fell over while doing it because he was sort of so sort of lent over to get that sort of flat trajectory. So you can still find them.
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Duncan Alexander
We absolutely love receiving your emails, comments and questions for the pod, so please keep them coming. Simply send your thoughts to tacticspod@theathletic.com okay, so we've talked extensively about goal kicks, how you take them, what the thinking is. But what happens after the ball has gone into the air and gone down the pitch? What about who you're kicking to? Does having big forwards help? You mentioned David Rya. Obviously he's now got Gokarez to aim for striker profiles getting bigger too.
Mark Carey
I think that the technical ability of strikers is sort of improving all the time. I've been reflecting upon this and thinking that again, we think it's a return back to the old school Premier League ways. And I don't know necessarily whether that is the case because it's probably just more that it's a little bit more fashionable among the elite sides now because you think about some of the players that have been in the Premier League, really strong physical players in recent seasons up to and including this season of Chris Wood for Nottingham Forest. Of course he's played at multiple Premier League clubs before. Ivan Toney at Brentford was a really good example of that. Often receiving the passes from David Reyer, of course. Yeah, Erling Haaland is the poster boy for that at the moment, but has been in the Premier League for a good couple of seasons now. Jean Philippe Metta, another good example. Dominic Calvert, Lewin Raul Jimenez. You got Jurgenstrand Larsen at Wolves. I feel like a lot of these players have been in the Premier League for quite some time, so I think that having that sort of profile of player has never been a bad thing and has never truly gone out of fashion. I don't know what you guys think, but I just think it's maybe more now that attention is being drawn to it a little bit more because Erling Haaland has returned to form, if you like. Jacques has gone to Arsenal. Liverpool has signed Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike, and while they're not maybe physically kind of as robust, they're tall and imposing figures. And Benjamin Sesko somewhere in between at Manchester United is a tall, physical striker. So it feels like it's more because of the move towards that sort of profile of striker among the elite side, more so than it went. And now it's returned.
Michael Cox
Yeah, I agree. I mean, I personally, I'm hugely skeptical about the. The value of a big number nine as your main striker. I just don't think that many. I don't think any Premier League teams who brought in a big number nine in recent years have actually improved. I. I personally think that kind of player in general should be an alternative. I think Arsenal had a really good option with Guy Havertz up top because I think he was good in the end. He was quite good at winning aerial balls, but he was also very good at coming short into midfield and I think that gives you another option. So, yeah, I mean, it's obviously useful. I still don't think a long goal kick to a striker's head is that useful. I think it's much better if you've got a player who can bring the ball down. Players are good with their chest, are very useful in these situations. But, yeah, I'm slightly skeptical about the value of all these big strikers coming in and they've obviously had mixed fortunes so far. Yeah, I don't really understand why teams are so obsessed with it, personally.
Duncan Alexander
I mean, obviously the dream is that someone, as you say, brings it down on their chest or with their feet perfectly. But if not, there's going to be the second ball. How much do teams work on second balls?
Michael Cox
Yeah, well, I mean, it was a big thing with Guardiola in his first season. I mean, they started really well City and then they had a really difficult Period midway through the season. And Guardiola went on a big run, I think ahead of the Arsenal game when he said they just. They'd spent a whole morning in training sessions working on the second ball. And the interesting thing was that he said it was Xabi Alonso at Bayern Munich who told him about this. He said Alonso said to him, when you go to England, you know, it's not just about playing out and being able to control the ball. You've got to control the second balls and the third balls and the fourth balls. So, yeah, it is a big part of the game. I didn't play an 11 of side personally. I didn't play 11 of side game for years. And then when I did once I was having just played five a side. I was amazed at how much people just kept on showing second ball second. And that was the second most annoying thing about playing. First thing about most annoying thing about playing was that they were right and it is all second balls. Do you know what I mean? Now, obviously it's different at Sunday league level compared to the Premier League, but yeah, actually it does make a difference. And there are players who are very skilled at it. I mean, this is kind of a different situation, kind of set pieces. But you'd have some players who would not challenge for the area ball because they were so good at getting on the second ball. A Kevin Nolan figure, William Gallas was very good at doing that. You do have players who are very good at anticipating the bounce and getting there first and are quick over three or four yards. I think that is a big factor in football.
Mark Carey
I don't know how you would could train it or even anticipate it. Because the idea of the second ball is that it follows an aerial duel or an aerial header in general. And that could go in any direction. So there really is a skill to it if you can frequently pick up on those second balls. I did a piece on it last season. I grew to be quite obsessed with it and it just shows how much, to Michael's point and Pep Guardiola said it, that it is such a crucial part of the game. And it is only when it sounds such an obvious thing to say, but given how many aerial duels there are, the ball has to go somewhere that there will always be a second ball. It's not necessarily about winning that first header. It's because no one is in possession during that header. You can only really get in possession from that next action, which is the second ball.
Michael Cox
And also without wanting to go into too much detail over Something that is kind of about scrappiness. If we go back to what we said about how before when you take a long goal kick, it would be into congested area, the second ball, then you're more likely to have a third and fourth ball because you were so likely. Like, even if you get to the second ball, you're being challenged straight away. Whereas now I think because there's more space, if there's a second ball, there might only be like four players in the vicinity. So I think if you can get that, there's probably more chance that actually you don't just reach the ball first, you actually get to control it and your team are in possession. So it's probably become even more important in a way.
Duncan Alexander
And it's quite a volatile metric as well in the sense that I think, you know, everyone's watched teams where one week they're really good at it, and then the next week you don't lose your passing ability from week to week. But I do think you have games where you just, just don't win second balls. And that, you know, obviously has a huge impact on, on how the, the game goes. So thinking sort of, I guess into the future a little bit. Obviously fans were, or some fans were, were scared in the last few years as teams started passing around their own penalty box, taking goal kicks very short. Have we now moved beyond that era or. I'm getting the sense that we've kind of moved into a new era where anything's possible and basically teams have all the weapons available to them, I think so.
Mark Carey
I feel it feel exactly like that. It feels as though it's a. It's a hybrid where step off the team and they could maybe start to knock it around, but get tight and they've got situations and sequences in which they can try and maximize that as well. Whether it is the striker pinning the center back and trying to turn them, or maybe maximizing the second balls as well. But I think it is worth kind of contextualizing why this is the case and teams. The whole league is going long, a little bit more and it is cyclical in terms of football in general and where in possession ideas then influence out of possession ideas, and then the out of possession ideas subsequently influence in possession, et cetera. With the move to more man for man, player for player, pressing right at the top end, teams have become so, so good at it and they can really shepherd the opposition to where they want. So you think of a goal kick being that the team in possession is in control. Actually the team out of possession can really be the ones who have really nuanced ways to win the ball back. Therefore then the in possession team needs to think of ways to be more nuanced themselves. So I think it's because of the way that pressing has improved so significantly that teams are now having to be more inclined to go long and then think of more complex ways to then try and get the ball to stick, rather than just what we said at the start, which is more of a hopeless ball into a congested area. So I think it is safer. I still think that going short and the numbers have backed this up sort of historically going short does still maximise your chance as the team in possession. If you get the sequence right of course of getting a touch in the box within 60 seconds, that was some work that had been done previously. But of course it depends on the team who's in possession of the ball. If it is maybe Sunderland or Burnley or Leeds at the moment, which they're not willing to do as much, then they maybe can't be as nuanced in the way that they do it. But if it is strong team in possession like a Manchester City or an Arsenal or Liverpool, then they can. And I think now teams are starting to become more pragmatic and understanding that they can't always do it and have it their own way because of the improvement in out of possession ideas.
Michael Cox
Yeah, I think it's just about being unpredictable as well. And hopefully ideally you can do both. I mean, I think that was the problem with Tottenham last season. They had the highest rate of goal kicks going short in the big five European leagues. Only Barcelona were close to them in that respect. The teams just knew they were going to do it every time. And I think it became quite easy to force mistakes. If you, if you go long once or twice then you give the, the midfield, the strikers of the opponent something to think about. Maybe they have to back off and then it's easier to play out because you get a bit more space. But if you just do the same thing every time it just becomes predictable and that's true for anything in football. So I don't really understand why you know, from a goal kick it should be so different. It feels like at times it's just a kind of. It becomes such a philosophy that it becomes more important than the actual outcome. It's almost like self branding. This is the team we are. But if it's unsuccessful, it's. You're just hitting it long for the sake of it. You're not just getting rid. You're going long because the next time you might be able to go short.
Duncan Alexander
Well, that feels like a good place to end today's podcast. A huge thank you to Mark, to Michael, and to producer Mike, and of course to all of you for listening. Do keep the emails coming. Michael Bailey will be back next week. See you all soon.
Mark Carey
The Athletic FC.
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Mark Carey
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Michael Cox
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Host: Duncan Alexander
Guests: Mark Carey, Michael Cox
This episode centers on the evolution of goalkeeper distribution in football, particularly the trend of keepers increasingly opting to "go long" with their kicks and passes. The discussion explores recent statistical shifts in goalkeepers' decision-making, tactical repercussions for teams, and how player techniques and evolving rules are shaping the modern game.
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:00 | Mark Carey | “Goalkeepers were going long the majority of the time, 69% of the time in the 2019 season...that’s only six or seven seasons ago.”| | 04:38 | Michael Cox | “The pitch has become completely spread out…that’s created more space, particularly in the midfield zone.” | | 10:57 | Mark Carey | “That’s now at 0.9 per 90. So nearly halved...it’s actually being targeted now.” | | 12:01 | Michael Cox | “It’s a long ball, but it’s not. It’s a really good through ball.” | | 16:17 | Michael Cox | “I think the refs are more likely to give it because giving an indirect free kick was quite a big punishment for something that doesn't really matter.” | | 26:02 | Michael Cox | “[Raya]...would carry the ball to the edge of the area and...really look for parts and then chuck it. Like really pinpoint in a way again, I haven’t really seen before.” | | 29:57 | Mark Carey | “The technical ability of strikers is improving all the time...I just think it's maybe now more fashionable among the elite sides...”| | 31:33 | Michael Cox | “I still don’t think a long goal kick to a striker’s head is that useful...Players are good with their chest, are very useful in these situations.”| | 35:46 | Mark Carey | “It feels like it’s a hybrid...if you get tight, they’ve got situations and sequences in which they can try and maximize that as well.” | | 37:46 | Michael Cox | “It’s just about being unpredictable as well. And hopefully, ideally, you can do both.” |
Goalkeeper distribution is experiencing a renaissance of sorts, not as a nostalgic return to 1990s “hoofball,” but as a sophisticated evolution where accuracy, speed, and unpredictability are in demand. Tactical shifts, rule changes, and improved player technique now allow teams to weaponize both long and short distributions to maximize their advantages—and keep opponents guessing. The key is adaptability, both for teams and for keepers, as the modern game expects more than ever from its last line of defense.
For questions or comments on the pod, The Athletic encourages feedback at tacticspod@theathletic.com